On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum. Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Solana Enters Bear Territory: Realized Loss Now Outweighs Profit This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation with the current spot price, considering the latest value of the cryptocurrency to be the one value for all coins. In short, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the asset’s supply. On the other hand, the market cap is the value that the investors are carrying in the present. The Realized Cap itself isn’t the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, measuring the 365-day changes occurring in the Realized Cap. Changes in the indicator naturally reflect the amount of capital exiting or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the asset’s netflow. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has witnessed both its 7-day and 59-day MAs reverse down recently, with the former line crossing under the latter. The trend indicates that growth in the Realized Cap has been slowing down during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin is lacking momentum from new cost basis inflows,” noted the analyst. With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator is now flagging the current market to be in a “bear phase.” The last time this signal maintained for an extended duration was alongside BTC’s decline over the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long momentum from new capital inflows will stay weak for Bitcoin this time around. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders are still under a notable amount of stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has pointed out in an X post. Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who got into the market during the past 155 days. Despite the rebound BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still in a loss of 10%. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,400, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has rallied more than 12% since last week’s sharp drop to the $80,000 low, offering the market a brief moment of relief after an intense period of capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, especially following what analysts describe as the largest short-term holder capitulation in Bitcoin’s history. Related Reading: XRP Reserves On Binance Collapse To Record Lows: Investors Move Toward Long-Term Holding This wave of realized losses—fast, aggressive, and record-breaking—has left many investors questioning whether the recent recovery is sustainable or simply a temporary bounce in a broader downtrend. According to new data from Glassnode, the path ahead remains challenging. Analysts explain that Bitcoin must break above the major supply clusters created by top buyers earlier in the cycle if it is to regain meaningful upward momentum. These clusters represent areas where a large number of investors previously bought at higher prices and may now look to exit at breakeven, increasing the likelihood of heavy sell-side pressure as BTC climbs. Bitcoin Faces Critical Supply Barriers Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now approaching two major supply clusters that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery. The first cluster sits between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second—much larger and more structurally important—spans $100,000 to $108,000. These zones were formed by heavy buying activity earlier in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater or sitting near breakeven. Because of this, Glassnode notes that these ranges typically act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who endured the latest drawdown may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This dynamic can create temporary supply walls, slowing down momentum even in moments of aggressive recovery. Bitcoin’s ability to break through these clusters will determine whether it can re-establish a path toward a new all-time high or remain trapped under heavy distribution pressure. The market is now entering a critical phase, with traders closely watching how BTC behaves as it approaches these levels. A clean breakout would signal renewed confidence, while rejection could signal that the broader corrective structure is not yet over. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Still Negative: US Institutions Keep Selling Despite Easing Pressure Testing Support After a Sharp Multi-Week Selloff Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after one of the most aggressive drawdowns of the cycle. BTC has rebounded to the $91,500 area following a deep wick to the $80K region last week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in at key support. This rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selloffs. However, despite this bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. The price is trading below the 50-week moving average, a level that previously acted as reliable support throughout the bull phase. Losing this dynamic support earlier in the month was a significant technical break, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim it from below—typically a challenging move that often acts as resistance. Related Reading: Ethereum ICO Whale Sells 20,000 ETH ($58M), Raising Questions Over Market Timing The 100-week moving average around the mid-$80K region has proven critical, halting the decline and serving as the primary area where buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the broader market avoids confirming a deeper macro reversal. Volume remains elevated, reflecting capitulation-level activity, and the market is now in a decisive phase. A sustained close above $92K–$94K would strengthen recovery prospects, while rejection would risk another retest of the $80K support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength, reclaiming the $115,000 level after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. Bulls are attempting to build momentum for a potential impulse move higher, aiming to confirm a sustained bullish structure after the recent consolidation phase. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Drives $500M Liquidity Flow Into ConcreteXYZ & Stable Vaults – Details On-chain data continues to reveal a clear and repeating pattern tied to investor behavior and market cycles. Historically, when the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 95%, the market tends to enter an overheated phase, often leading to sharp corrections. These pullbacks serve as natural cooling periods, resetting sentiment and liquidity before the next major leg up. Interestingly, each correction cycle has shown consistent bottoming zones around the 75% threshold, where long-term holders reaccumulate and market confidence begins to rebuild. More specifically, data highlights profit supply lows of 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and a recent rebound from 81%, signaling a potential mid-cycle recovery phase. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 83.6% — Momentum Rebuilds Ahead of Key Threshold According to top analyst Darkfost, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has started to climb again, currently standing at 83.6%. This steady rise indicates that a growing share of Bitcoin holders are once again sitting on unrealized gains — a trend that often reflects improving sentiment and renewed market confidence. Darkfost notes that this level can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are willing to hold their BTC instead of realizing profits, anticipating further upside in the near term. Historically, such behavior has been characteristic of mid-cycle recovery phases, when fear starts to fade and accumulation resumes across both retail and institutional segments. This stage of the cycle is considered healthy for rebuilding momentum, as it allows the market to stabilize after large corrections. Holders who previously capitulated often reenter at this stage, while long-term participants strengthen their positions, creating a more resilient market structure. However, Darkfost cautions that once the supply in profit surpasses 95%, it typically signals overheated market conditions — a point where euphoria tends to replace rational conviction. In such phases, Bitcoin historically faces increased volatility and sharp corrections as overleveraged traders and short-term speculators take profits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Accumulation Before Next Growth Wave BTC Retests $115K Resistance: Bulls Regain Momentum Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum, trading around $115,443 and successfully reclaiming key short-term support levels after weeks of consolidation. The daily chart highlights a strong recovery structure, with BTC breaking above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment. The next critical test lies at $117,500, a historical resistance zone that previously rejected multiple attempts in September and early October. A clear breakout and daily close above this level would likely confirm an impulse continuation toward $120K–$125K, opening the door for a more sustained uptrend. Related Reading: Chris Larsen Cashes Out: $764M In XRP Profits Since 2018 Momentum indicators suggest strengthening buying pressure, while the recent bounce from the 200-day moving average near $107K underscores the market’s resilience. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally, aligning with the broader pattern of accumulation seen on-chain, where investor profitability is rising steadily. However, BTC remains within a range-bound structure, and rejection at $117.5K could trigger short-term consolidation back toward $111K–$112K. Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook appears constructive — if the bulls can sustain above $115K and confirm strength above $117.5K, the market could transition into a new bullish leg, supported by improving investor sentiment and on-chain health. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is once again at a decisive moment after several days of tight consolidation around the $110K level. Bulls are making an effort to defend this critical support, while also eyeing the $113K resistance as the next key barrier. A breakout above it could provide the momentum needed for BTC to retest higher supply zones and reignite bullish sentiment. However, the market remains fragile, with volatility and fear weighing heavily on investor confidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin CDD Indicator Signals LTH Distribution As Demand Offsets Pressure Top analyst Axel Adler provided important context from the derivatives market. According to Adler, the Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score currently stands at 18%, which is considered low to moderate and closer to the neutral zone. This suggests that there is no overwhelming short pressure from leverage at this time. In practical terms, futures traders are not aggressively building short positions, nor are they significantly adding to long exposure. This balance reflects a cautious market environment where participants are waiting for a catalyst to determine direction. Until then, Bitcoin’s battle between $110K support and $113K resistance will remain the focal point, setting the stage for the next major move in either direction. Bitcoin Futures In Neutral Mode According to Adler, the current state of the futures market paints a picture of caution rather than conviction. With the Pressure Score at 18%, the indicator suggests a neutral environment where traders are neither aggressively building long positions nor stacking shorts. Adler explains that this lack of strong directional signals reflects an indecisive market, where participants are waiting for external catalysts before committing capital. The Pressure Score becomes particularly important in identifying potential downside risks. Adler notes that when the metric rises toward the 30–40% range, it indicates that shorts are being built up at an accelerated pace. In such cases, open interest increases faster than usual, creating conditions that often lead to sudden price dumps. For now, Bitcoin is not in that danger zone, but the market remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment. What adds to the current uncertainty is the weakening US labor market, which has fueled speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Any surprise in economic data or Fed guidance could easily tip the balance, triggering volatility across crypto markets. As investors digest these signals, Bitcoin is expected to trade with increased choppiness in the coming days, with bulls and bears closely monitoring the $110K–$113K range as the decisive battleground. Related Reading: Whales Are Buying Solana: Two Wallets Pull 376K Tokens From Binance Technical Insights: Trading Between Key Levels Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,196, showing a modest recovery after testing lows near $110,000. The chart highlights a consolidation phase, with BTC holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,102, while the 50-day SMA sits higher at $114,650, acting as immediate resistance. A decisive close above this level could open the path for Bitcoin to retest $116,000 and potentially challenge the major resistance at $123,217, marked by the summer peak. On the downside, the 200-day SMA at $101,980 provides a strong layer of support. As long as BTC remains above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent volatility. However, repeated failures to break above the 50-day SMA may invite further consolidation, with risks of a retest of the $108,000–$110,000 zone if selling pressure re-emerges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Absorbs Supply In Batches: VDD Highlights Mature Bull Phase Bulls need to reclaim $114,650 to shift momentum toward the $120K region, while bears aim to defend resistance and push the price lower. The coming days are likely to determine whether Bitcoin resumes its broader uptrend or extends its correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading at a pivotal level after losing momentum from the $120,000 zone and slipping into deeper volatility. The price is now testing the $112,000 support level, a key zone for bulls to defend in order to avoid further bearish pressure. While the broader trend remains constructive in the long term, the short-term outlook has tilted toward weakness, with momentum indicators showing a leaning toward the downside. Related Reading: Whale Loads Up $300M Ethereum Onchain: Did He Just Catch The Bottom? Analysts highlight this moment as a potential inflection point for the market. A strong defense of current levels could reset sentiment and allow Bitcoin to consolidate before another breakout attempt. However, failure to hold above $112K may trigger a sharper correction, opening the path toward deeper support levels. Adding to the cautious tone, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, shared new data showing that the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has shifted into a neutral signal. This shift highlights that while selling pressure hasn’t fully taken over, the market is no longer in clear bullish territory. The coming days will be decisive in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Bitcoin Indicator Signals Caution According to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has shifted from a “Bullish Cooldown” phase to a “Neutral” phase. The index, which tracks overall market strength using a combination of trading flows, investor behavior, and derivatives data, declined from 70 to 50. This move signals that bullish momentum has weakened, leaving Bitcoin in a more balanced state between buyers and sellers. Moreno noted that “for risk management purposes, further softening in the index indicates price could go lower.” This means that while the neutral zone doesn’t yet imply a confirmed downtrend, any additional deterioration could increase the probability of deeper corrections. Traders are therefore closely watching upcoming sessions, as price action around the $112K–$115K support zone will be critical in shaping short-term direction. The broader context remains constructive. Bitcoin has been in a steady uptrend since 2023, a cycle that has already delivered massive gains and propelled the asset to new all-time highs above $124K earlier this month. Many analysts argue that the market is now in the final phase of this bull run, where volatility typically rises and investor sentiment becomes divided between expectations of continuation and warnings of exhaustion. As the month comes to an end, global macroeconomic factors—including interest rate policies, institutional inflows, and liquidity conditions—will play a decisive role. If Bitcoin holds its support and fundamentals remain strong, this neutral phase may simply represent a healthy pause before the next upward move. Conversely, if weakness persists, the market could be signaling the start of a deeper consolidation phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Transfers Collapse: Lowest Since Bull Market Peak In 2021 Price Action: Testing critical Support Level Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,837, after a sharp decline from its all-time high near $123,217. The daily chart shows that BTC has slipped below the 50-day SMA ($116,158) and is now testing the 100-day SMA ($111,224) as support. This level has become a crucial line of defense for bulls. The rejection from the $123K region highlights strong resistance overhead, which has led to several failed breakout attempts. The structure suggests that BTC has entered a consolidation phase, with the $111K–$116K zone serving as the immediate range. A decisive breakdown below $111K could open the way toward the 200-day SMA ($100,597), a level many analysts see as the final support for this cycle’s uptrend. Related Reading: Ethereum Treasury Boom Drives Demand: Can The Market Handle The Risks? Momentum indicators also align with weakening bullish pressure, as recent candles show lower highs and lower lows. However, holding above the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bull case, potentially setting up a rebound toward $118K and eventually retesting $123K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how $136,000 could be the next price level of importance for Bitcoin, if current momentum continues. This Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Level Is Situated At $136,000 In a new thread on X, Glassnode has discussed what a few different on-chain indicators suggest regarding where Bitcoin is in the current cycle. The first metric shared by the analytics firm is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which measures the average acquisition price of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $117,000 Amid $3.5 Billion Profit-Taking Frenzy Below is a chart showing the trend in this metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price broke above the STH Cost Basis earlier in the year and has since remained above the line, indicating the STHs as a whole have been in a state of net profit. In the same chart, the analytics firm has also marked a few other levels, each corresponding to a specific standard deviation (SD) from the STH Cost Basis. With the recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH) above $123,000, BTC was able to breach the +1 SD level, which has historically corresponded to heated market conditions. After the pullback, though, the coin has returned below the mark, but still remains close to it. “If this momentum continues, the next key level is $136k (2 +std), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks,” explains Glassnode. While Bitcoin is still not overheated from the perspective of the STH Cost Basis model, other indicators paint a different picture. The STH Supply In Profit, an indicator tracking the percentage of the cohort’s supply that’s sitting on some gain, has recently surged far above the 88% threshold that has separated high-risk euphoric phases. Another metric, measuring the percentage of STH volume that’s leading to profit realization, also similarly saw a jump significantly above the historical overheated cutoff of 62%. “Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets, but repeated signals at these levels typically precede local tops and warrant caution,” notes the analytics firm. During this spike of profit-taking, the ratio between the profit and loss being realized by the Bitcoin STHs spiked to a 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) value of 39.8. This is a value that’s, once again, extreme by historical standards. That said, spikes like this have generally occurred multiple times over the course of a cycle, before a top is finally attained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Under $117,000: Is Social Media FOMO To Blame? “Historically, cycle tops follow with a lag, leaving room for further upside,” says Glassnode. “However, risk is elevated and the market becomes increasingly sensitive to external shocks. The current pullback aligns with this pattern.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $118,800, up more than 8% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap has surged to a new all-time high (ATH) recently, but monthly inflows have slowed down considerably. Bitcoin Realized Cap Is Growing At A Notably Slower Rate Now According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Realized Cap of Bitcoin has just set a new record. The “Realized Cap” here refers to a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates the asset’s total value by assuming the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the network. The last transaction of a given coin is likely to represent the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at the time of the move would denote the coin’s current cost basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Fear—Green Sign For Recovery? As the Realized Cap sums up this acquisition value for all tokens part of the circulating supply, it essentially determines the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase Bitcoin. Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in its value over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realizzed Cap has been following an uptrend for a while now. Whenever the indicator’s value rises, it means a net amount of capital is flowing into the cryptocurrency. Thus, the long-term surge would imply BTC has been enjoying continuous inflows. That said, while capital has been flowing in without break, the growth rate has fluctuated over the cycle. From the chart, it’s visible that the Realized Cap saw a particularly sharp rise during two periods: Q1 2024 and Q4 2024. The Q1 2024 phase was followed by a rapid slowdown in capital inflowsm and so far, it would appear that the Q4 2024 one has been seeing something similar. At the height of inflows in December, the growth rate of the metric stood at around 13% per month. Today, this value has declined to just 0.9% per month. Growth is still continuing, of course, and the indicator has managed to set a new record of $872 billion. But as Glassnode has explained, the slowdown could indicate “investor appetite is softening – signaling continued risk-off sentiment.” Both the periods of fresh capital inflows last year coincided with bull rallies for Bitcoin, while the phase of slowdown in between the two resulted in bearish consolidation for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Hasn’t Lost This Key Level Yet—Bull Cycle Intact? The latest drop in Realized Cap growth has so far resulted in a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Given the trend of last year, it’s possible that a proper reversal may not happen for BTC until the metric catches a sharper uptrend. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement over the last few days as its price is still floating around the $84,700 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has seen yet another bounce in the past day, adding to the recent series of rebounds. Here’s what on-chain data says regarding if BTC is going anywhere with them. Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Could Shed Light On Broader Dynamics In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the recent trend in the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio for Bitcoin, which is an indicator that can be useful to study how investors are reacting to price volatility. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $0.57 Or $0.06? Analyst Says DOGE’s Fate Hinges On This Level The metric measures, as its name already suggests, the ratio between the amount of profit and that of loss being realized by the holders or addresses as a whole. The indicator works by looking at the transaction history of each coin being sold on the network to find what price it was transferred at prior to this sale. If this previous selling value is less than the latest spot price for any token, then the metric includes it under the profit volume. The total profit realized in the sale of the coin is assumed to be equal to the difference between the two prices. The indicator calculates this value for all coins belonging to the profit volume and takes a total sum to determine the scale of profit realization happening across the blockchain. Similarly, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio also finds the total amount of loss being realized by referring to the sales of the coins of the opposite type (that is, the tokens with the last transaction value higher than the current spot price). Then, it takes the ratio between the two sums, to estimate the net situation for the sector. During the last couple of months, Bitcoin has been going through a phase of bearish price action. Here’s what investor trading behavior has been like in this period, according to the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: As the analytics firm has highlighted in the chart, the indicator has seen dips under the 1 mark during each of BTC’s recent lows. A value in this region corresponds to loss-taking being more dominant than profit-taking. “This imbalance typically marks a degree of seller exhaustion, where downside momentum fades as sell-side pressure is absorbed,” explains Glassnode. Due to this reason, capitulation tends to help BTC arrive at local bottoms. From the graph, it’s visible that the cryptocurrency also benefited from this effect during the recent bursts of loss realization, as its price found a rebound following each of them. These Bitcoin rebounds, however, have so far not been anything sustained. Will they eventually culminate into a return of proper bullish momentum, or are they only dead-cat bounces on the way down? To tackle the question, the analytics firm has referred to a long-term view of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. As shown in the above chart, the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been sharply trending down recently, despite the jumps in profit realization that have come on the short-term view. “These brief profit-driven surges have failed to reverse the broader downtrend, suggesting that the macro picture remains one of generally weaker liquidity and deteriorating investor profitability,” notes Glassnode. Related Reading: Dogecoin, XRP Among Coins Seeing The Largest Decline In Profit Supply: Data So, as for whether Bitcoin has been witnessing a shift towards bullish momentum with the recent rebounds, the answer is seemingly no, at least from the perspective of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,600, down almost 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,800 after a strong 13% rebound from the $81,000 level, as bulls attempt to regain control of price action. After days of volatility and uncertainty, Bitcoin’s recovery has renewed optimism in the market, but traders remain cautious as BTC faces key resistance levels. Related Reading: 2.23 Million Chainlink Moved To Exchanges In Two Weeks – Selling Pressure Incoming? All eyes are now on Friday’s President Trump Crypto Summit, where he is expected to announce a definitive plan for the U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve. This event could have a major impact on Bitcoin’s trajectory, as regulatory clarity and institutional involvement could drive renewed investor interest. Top analyst Ali Martinez shared a technical analysis on X, highlighting a crucial resistance level at $97,000. According to his analysis, if Bitcoin reclaims $97K, it could gain momentum for a massive rally toward $150,000. This level is a key breakout zone, which could trigger a new leg up in the current market cycle. With Bitcoin hovering just below significant resistance, the next few days will be critical in determining whether BTC can push higher or faces another retracement. Traders are closely watching for confirmation of a breakout, with the Crypto Summit set to be a potential catalyst for the next big move. Bitcoin Prepares For A Breakout Bitcoin has faced massive volatility and sharp price swings since last week, keeping traders on edge as it struggles to establish a clear trend direction. After reaching $96,000, BTC plunged over 18% to $78,000, triggering panic selling and widespread liquidations. This sharp drop wiped out overleveraged positions, leading to heightened uncertainty as investors looked for signs of stabilization. Related Reading: Whales Bought 420 Million Cardano After Trump’s U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve Announcement – Insights Since the crash, Bitcoin has been swinging up and down, failing to confirm a decisive move in either direction. Every attempt at a sustained breakout has met with selling pressure, while dips have been met with demand, leaving BTC stuck in a high-volatility phase. Martinez’s technical analysis on X points out that if Bitcoin reclaims $97,000, it could gain momentum for a move toward $150,000. His analysis is based on the Pi Cycle Top indicator, a historically reliable tool for identifying market cycle peaks and major trend reversals. Bitcoin could prepare for a massive rally if price follows previous cycle behavior, assuming key supply levels are reclaimed. For now, the $97,000 resistance remains a critical barrier. If BTC can flip this level into support, the market could see a rapid bullish expansion. However, failure to reclaim these levels could lead to further consolidation or another leg down before any major trend shift occurs. BTC Trading Above $90K: Can Bulls Hold It? Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,800 after enduring days of massive selling pressure and negative sentiment. Despite recent attempts to regain momentum, BTC has struggled to establish a clear trend, leaving traders cautious about its next move. For Bitcoin to confirm a recovery, it must stay above $90,000 in the coming days. Holding this level would signal renewed strength and could set the stage for a massive breakout. If BTC maintains this position, a push toward higher levels above $95,000 and beyond could follow, bringing the market back into bullish territory. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold $90,000, the situation could quickly turn bearish again. More importantly, losing the $85,000 level would likely trigger renewed selling pressure and even panic selling as traders rush to protect their positions. A breakdown below this key support zone would indicate further downside risks, potentially sending BTC to lower demand levels. Related Reading: 2.23 Million Chainlink Moved To Exchanges In Two Weeks – Selling Pressure Incoming? With market volatility still high, the next few days are critical in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Whether BTC stabilizes above $90K or faces another leg down will shape the market’s momentum in the coming weeks. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move within its one-week range after recovering from its recent drop to $91,000 but has failed to reclaim support above the $98,000 mark. Some analysts consider that BTC’s sentiment will remain neutral while it regains this support zone and builds up momentum toward a new high. Related Reading: Ethereum Holds ‘Bounce Or Die’ Level: Rebound To $4,000 Could Be Near Bitcoin Price Stability Could Lead To $101K Reclaim Following the start-of-February market correction, Bitcoin has been moving within the $96,000-$99,000 price range. The flagship cryptocurrency has recovered from its momentary fall to $91,000 and found support within its one-week range, only dropping 2% during this Sunday’s market retrace. The largest cryptocurrency has been hovering between $90,000 and $108,000 since the US Elections pump, moving in the mid-zone of its four-month price range for most of this period. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out Bitcoin’s positive performance, as it “continues to enjoy price stability” above a diagonal trendline support, a previous one-month downtrend line, broken during the latest all-time high (ATH) breakout. Since the DeepSeek-triggered correction, Bitcoin recorded price advances “that have been quickly getting canceled out, as evidenced by the recent upside wicks.” However, BTC’s price continued to hold the diagonal trendline as support over the week, which is necessary to build further momentum. According to the analyst, “As long as it continues to hold, the price will be positioned for a revisit of $101k over time.” After its most recent price action, BTC needs to reclaim the $97,700 mark to “build on this reversal with additional follow-through.” To achieve this, the flagship cryptocurrency must print a daily close above this level and reclaim it as support to build on its momentum toward the $101,000 resistance. BTC Remain Bullish in Higher Timeframes Daan Crypto Trades highlighted BTC’s range hasn’t changed, as it continues to move sideways while many altcoins have been losing ground. According to the X post, Bitcoin is consolidating while attempting a breakout on the lower timeframes. If the flagship crypto reclaims the highs from last week’s initial bounce, above the $100,000 barrier, BTC’s market structure will flip around. Daan stated BTC’s momentum is “pretty neutral” in the short term while bullish in the higher timeframes. Additionally, he pointed out that risk on sentiment will return once Bitcoin goes back into price discovery. According to Rekt Capital, BTC’s Second Price Discovery Uptrend should come in the next few weeks, as the cryptocurrency is trying to “trend reverse out of its 1st Price Discovery Correction,” which started in December. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Hold $97K? – 1-3 Month Holders’ Data Reveals Crucial BTC Demand Bitcoin has historically begun its second leg up around the 16th week of its Post-Halving Parabolic Phase, suggesting Bitcoin could start its next run to new highs soon. Moreover, February has also been a historically positive month for the flagship crypto. Several analysts have pointed out that BTC’s post-halving year performance has generally been favorable during Q1, generally struggling throughout the first few weeks of the year but gaining momentum throughout February and March. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,091, a 1.2% decrease in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Data shows three popular Bitcoin momentum indicators recently formed a death cross pattern. Here’s what usually follows this formation. Bitcoin Momentum Indicators Have Seen Bearish Crossovers Recently In a new CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed the latest trend in three momentum indicators related to Bitcoin. The momentum indicators here refer to combinations of some important moving averages (MAs) related to the cryptocurrency. The first is the “Active Address Momentum,” which involves the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the daily unique number of BTC Active Addresses. An address is said to be “active” when it makes some transaction on the network, whether as a receiver or sender. Related Reading: $170 Million In Crypto Longs Bite The Dust As Bitcoin Plunges Under $57,000 The number of Active Addresses may be the same as the number of users visiting the network, so this metric tells us how the blockchain activity is looking right now. Here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the Active Addresses over the last few years. As displayed in the above graph, the monthly average of the Active Addresses saw a cross under the yearly average shortly after the asset’s rally to the new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained under it. This crossover implies activity on the BTC blockchain has been on the decline. Generally, user interest keeps rallies fueled, so an increase in Active Addresses is needed to keep any more sustainable. As investors are starting to pay less attention to the cryptocurrency, conditions may not be right for a bull run anymore. The chart shows that this kind of crossover also occurred at the end of the bull run in the first half of 2021, although the second-half rally did occur regardless. The second momentum indicator is the famous Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which tells us whether the investors are in profit or loss. As the chart shows, the MVRV Ratio has also seen its monthly cross below its yearly, suggesting investor profits have been shrinking. This pattern has historically served as a death cross, with BTC shifting towards a bearish phase following it. The same cross also appeared just before the 2022 bear market kicked off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $40,600 If This Happens, Crypto Analyst Says Finally, there is also the bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day MAs of the Bitcoin price itself. Given all these negative patterns across the different Bitcoin indicators, the cryptocurrency may be heading towards at least a short-term bearish period. BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled recently as its price has dipped towards the $56,500 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com