Bitcoin continues to trade below the $80,000 level as the market remains under sustained selling pressure and heightened uncertainty. Recent price action reflects a fragile environment in which downside moves are met with limited conviction from buyers, while broader risk sentiment across crypto stays defensive. As volatility persists, analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain indicators to assess whether the market is approaching exhaustion—or if further downside still lies ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? A new report from CryptoQuant highlights a notable deterioration in holder profitability through the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has fallen to its lowest levels of the past year. The SOPR measures whether coins being spent are moving at a profit or a loss, offering insight into the behavior of different investor cohorts during periods of stress. One key observation is the convergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). The SOPR ratio has dropped sharply toward the critical 1.0 level, indicating that long-term holders are realizing significantly less profit than before—or are choosing to stop selling altogether at current prices. This behavior suggests a growing reluctance to distribute coins into weakness, even as short-term participants continue to face losses. With Bitcoin still below key psychological levels, the evolution of SOPR will be closely watched. Whether this shift marks early stabilization or simply a pause before deeper capitulation remains an open question for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Selling Exhaustion, Not Capitulation The report adds that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors the deterioration seen in SOPR. The price (black line) has reached a local low near $77,900. Aligning with the sharp drop in the ratio toward its lowest levels of the past year. This synchronization suggests that realized selling pressure has intensified alongside the decline in profitability, reinforcing the view that the market has moved into a stress phase rather than a routine pullback. From a sentiment perspective, historically depressed SOPR readings have often coincided with moments when so-called “smart money” reduces selling activity. When coins are no longer being spent at a meaningful profit, long-term holders tend to step back, allowing selling pressure to subside. In past cycles, similar conditions have preceded periods of accumulation or the formation of local market floors. Although timing has varied widely. Two scenarios now stand out. If the SOPR stabilizes around the 1.0 level, it would suggest that heavy distribution from long-term investors is largely exhausted. Creating room for a relief bounce as marginal demand returns. Alternatively, the steep, momentum-driven drop in price increases the likelihood of extended sideways consolidation, as the market digests recent volatility before establishing a clearer trend. In summary, the data points to a flush market. With SOPR at yearly lows, weaker hands appear to have exited, shifting the balance toward longer-term value considerations over short-term fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Averages Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights a market under sustained pressure, despite a modest rebound off recent lows. Price is currently hovering around the $78,000 area after briefly dipping toward the mid-$70,000s, a zone that has acted as an important short-term demand pocket. This bounce, however, has so far lacked follow-through and does not yet signal a structural trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages. The price is trading well under the 100-day and 200-day averages, both of which are now sloping downward. This configuration reinforces the broader bearish bias and suggests that rallies are still being sold into rather than accumulated aggressively. The prior support region between $85,000 and $90,000 has clearly flipped into resistance. Confirming a change in market structure compared to late 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? The sell-off into the $74,000–$76,000 range was accompanied by elevated volume. The subsequent rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies short-covering or tactical buying rather than renewed conviction from longer-term investors. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase into a consolidation or corrective regime. As long as the price remains below reclaimed resistance and fails to regain key moving averages, downside risks remain active. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has been locked in a tight consolidation range since late November, frustrating traders and fueling growing speculation about a major move ahead. Volatility has compressed, price has stabilized near key psychological levels, and market participants are increasingly divided on what comes next. Some analysts argue that this prolonged consolidation is laying the groundwork for a renewed upside recovery, while a broader consensus warns that Bitcoin could still face another leg lower before a sustainable trend emerges. Related Reading: XRP Consolidates Above $2 As Volume Z-Score Signals A Quiet Market Adding to this uncertainty, top analyst Darkfost points to an important and potentially concerning on-chain development: the first signs of long-term holder (LTH) capitulation are beginning to surface. The last time Bitcoin traded at similar price levels was in April 2025, roughly nine months ago. Since then, a large portion of market participants accumulated BTC at higher prices and have continued to hold through the recent correction. Today, many of those investors are sitting on unrealized losses. As a reminder, Bitcoin held for more than six months is classified as long-term holder supply, typically associated with higher conviction and lower sensitivity to short-term price moves. When this cohort begins to show signs of stress, it often marks a critical phase in the market cycle. Whether this emerging LTH pressure becomes a brief shakeout or evolves into broader capitulation could play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next major move. Early Signs of Long-Term Holder Capitulation Emerge What we are currently observing on the Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a behavior that typically appears during bear market phases. LTH SOPR measures whether coins held for more than six months are being sold at a profit or a loss, offering insight into conviction among the most resilient cohort of Bitcoin investors. In recent days, LTH SOPR briefly dipped below the critical 1.0 level. This signals that some long-term holders—most likely the younger segment of this group—have begun to capitulate by selling at a loss. Historically, such moves reflect rising stress among holders who bought closer to cycle highs and are now facing prolonged drawdowns. For now, however, this behavior remains limited. The 30-day moving average of LTH SOPR still stands at a healthy 1.18, meaning long-term holders have realized an average profit of 18% over the past month. While this confirms that broad-based capitulation has not yet materialized, it is worth noting that this level is well below the annual average near 2.0, indicating a clear slowdown in realized profits. A deeper deterioration would be bearish in the short term, signaling expanding sell pressure. Conversely, declining realized profits may also suggest that traders are gradually exhausting selling pressure. For a bullish continuation to develop, LTH SOPR would need to stabilize and begin trending higher again, confirming renewed confidence among long-term holders. Related Reading: Trump-Powell Conflict Fuels Volatility While Retail Sells Bitcoin At A Loss – Details Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation range after the sharp correction from the October highs. On the weekly chart, price is holding just below the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone, an area that previously acted as support before the breakdown. This level now represents a key inflection point for market structure. Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin remains above its rising 200-day moving average, which continues to slope upward near the mid-$80,000 region. This suggests that the broader trend remains constructive, even as short-term momentum has weakened. The 100-day moving average has flattened, reflecting a loss of upside momentum, while the 50-day average is still attempting to stabilize after rolling over during the sell-off. Related Reading: Ethereum Long-Term Cost Basis Holds Firm: Structural Floor Forms Near $2.8K Price action over the past several weeks shows a series of higher lows, indicating that buyers are gradually stepping in and absorbing selling pressure. However, volume has declined during this consolidation, signaling a lack of strong conviction from either side of the market. This behavior is typical of compression phases that often precede larger directional moves. A sustained break and weekly close above $94,000 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a move toward the $100,000–$105,000 range. Conversely, failure to hold above the $86,000–$88,000 support zone would increase downside risk and shift focus toward deeper retracements. For now, Bitcoin remains in balance, building tension for its next decisive move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is under renewed selling pressure as fear begins to creep back into the market. After weeks of high volatility, analysts warn that BTC could drop below the $110K support level in the coming sessions if current dynamics persist. Such a move would mark a critical shift in sentiment, as bullish momentum has clearly weakened in recent days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Liquidations Stay Negative Near $40M: Analyst Warns Downside Still In Play Despite this, more optimistic voices argue that Bitcoin remains resilient at current levels. They believe the market could stabilize and reclaim higher ground once buying demand returns, especially if macro conditions or institutional flows provide fresh momentum. Top analyst Darkfost shared important insights into the current onchain activity, noting a concerning trend among mid-term holders. He highlighted that while it’s difficult to confirm a single entity, Bitcoin aged between 6–12 months has been consistently flowing onto the market, following a strikingly similar selling pattern. Long-Term Holders Drive Market Pressure Darkfost explains that long-term holders (LTHs) currently control an overwhelming share of the Bitcoin supply, estimated at around 80–85%. This concentration of supply underscores the structural strength of Bitcoin’s investor base, yet it also means that any selling activity from this group has an outsized impact on price dynamics. When LTHs move coins onto the market, it often signals either profit-taking or a shift in sentiment, both of which can weigh on short-term momentum. The Bitcoin Spent Output Bands (SOB) indicator further validates this trend, showing that recent onchain flows align with the activity of these experienced holders. As coins aged between six months and several years enter circulation, the data reflects renewed selling pressure, helping explain the bearish momentum that has driven Bitcoin lower in recent days. This dynamic is consistent with the corrective move BTC has faced since losing the $115K level, as the market absorbs distribution from cohorts that previously held through volatility. Despite the near-term challenges, fundamentals continue to support a bullish outlook over the long run. Institutional accumulation, shrinking exchange reserves, and Bitcoin’s increasingly strong correlation with macro liquidity cycles all provide a foundation for higher valuations once selling pressure eases. The coming weeks will be decisive. If Bitcoin can hold above key liquidity zones and shake off the weight of LTH distribution, it may regain the momentum needed to retest its all-time highs. Conversely, failure to defend critical supports could extend the correction, further testing market confidence. Ultimately, while LTHs are shaping current price action, the broader structural demand for Bitcoin suggests that the long-term trajectory remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: 30K BTC In Realized Losses Over 24 Hours BTC Holding Key Demand Level Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $112,567, showing a slight rebound after touching intraday lows around $111,135. The chart highlights that BTC remains under pressure following its rejection from the $117K–$118K region earlier this week. The key resistance level remains the $123,217 zone, which has capped rallies since July, while immediate support lies around the $112K–$110K range. The 50-day SMA at $114,322 and the 100-day SMA at $113,382 have now flipped into overhead resistance after the recent breakdown, suggesting that short-term momentum is weakening. A failure to reclaim these levels in the coming sessions could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA near $103,869, which aligns with a long-term support cluster. Related Reading: Aster Forms Bullish Hammer At Key Support – Reversal Setup? Price action shows that buyers are attempting to defend the $112K region, which has acted as a strong liquidity zone in recent months. However, repeated tests of this level raise the risk of a breakdown if bullish momentum does not return. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range, caught between the $113K resistance and the $110K support level. Bulls are struggling to regain momentum after recent pullbacks, while mounting selling pressure continues to weigh on short-term sentiment. The tight consolidation reflects investor indecision, with both sides waiting for a decisive breakout that could shape the market’s next major move. Related Reading: Ethereum Dominates Trading Volume Despite Market Cool-Off – Details Despite the near-term weakness, the long-term view remains more constructive. According to top analyst Darkfost, the 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) remains elevated but has started to cool off. Notably, its value has already dropped by half from its previous peak, signaling a slowdown in old coin movements. This decline suggests that the heaviest phase of long-term holder distribution may be easing, providing the market with some breathing room. If this cooling trend continues, it could reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook, even as short-term volatility persists. The combination of resilient support levels and declining long-term holder selling pressure may set the stage for a stronger recovery once external catalysts, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, provide clarity. Strong LTH Movement Meets Resilient Demand Darkfost shared that the market has just experienced the strongest movement of old Bitcoin (LTHs) in this cycle so far. Long-term holders, who typically keep their coins dormant for extended periods, have been moving significant amounts of BTC back into circulation. This is a noteworthy development because it represents the most intense wave of long-term holder activity since the current bull cycle began. What makes this event particularly striking is that despite the heavy selling pressure from these seasoned holders, Bitcoin’s price has only corrected between 10% and 13% from its recent highs. By historical standards, this is a relatively modest drawdown, suggesting that the market remains resilient. Darkfost points out that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is crucial here. CDD tracks how long BTC has been held before being moved. When older coins are suddenly spent, it typically reflects distribution by experienced holders—often interpreted as profit-taking or a shift in positioning. A spike in CDD, therefore, signals significant selling pressure. However, the key takeaway is that demand has so far absorbed this spike remarkably well. Institutional inflows, treasury accumulation, and strong market liquidity appear to be offsetting the selling activity. While this doesn’t completely remove downside risk—especially if further long-term holders decide to exit—the market’s ability to withstand such a strong wave of distribution without a deeper crash is encouraging. The broader implication is that Bitcoin’s structure remains strong, even as it faces temporary challenges. If demand continues to hold firm, this phase of redistribution may ultimately serve as a healthy reset, setting the stage for the next leg higher. Still, investors should remain cautious: the market is not out of the woods just yet. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds Price Testing Support After Pullback Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,870, staging a modest recovery after a pullback from its all-time high near $124,500. The chart shows that BTC has been in a consolidation phase following months of strong gains, with price action now hovering above the 100-day moving average (green line) and testing the mid-term trend structure. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is slightly above the current price, acting as short-term resistance. A decisive break above this level could open the door for another attempt at the $120K–$123K zone, which remains the critical resistance for bulls to reclaim in order to re-enter price discovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Structure Questioned As VDD Mirrors Historic Tops On the downside, support is forming around the $110K–$108K range, close to the rising 100-day moving average, which has held well during previous corrections. A breakdown below this level would risk a deeper retracement toward the 200-day moving average (red line) near $82K, though such a move would require strong selling pressure. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal level, with selling pressure dominating the market and volatility shaking investor confidence. After weeks of choppy trading, BTC is barely holding above the $110,000 mark, a threshold that many analysts view as critical for maintaining a bullish structure. Momentum has clearly shifted in recent sessions, and the market is now bracing for the possibility of a deeper correction. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain Adding to the concern, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from the Bitcoin UTXO Age Metrics, which reveal growing signs of distribution from long-term holders. Historically, when older coins begin to move, it often signals that experienced investors are taking profits and releasing supply back into the market. Such behavior has repeatedly preceded periods of downside pressure, as the influx of long-held BTC creates hurdles for bulls to overcome. While Bitcoin has shown resilience throughout this cycle, the combination of distribution signals and mounting uncertainty makes the coming days crucial. If BTC fails to hold its current support, the door could open to lower levels, testing investor conviction. The spotlight is now on whether demand can match the renewed selling from long-term holders and stabilize the market. Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Signal Market Shift According to Adler, the LTH Aging Velocity (30-day) offers valuable insight into the current Bitcoin market structure. This metric measures the change in the long-term holder (LTH) supply share over a 30-day period, effectively showing the momentum of supply aging among experienced holders. When the metric is above 0, more coins are maturing into long-term supply, indicating accumulation. When it is below 0, the LTH share is decreasing, signaling distribution. Zero crossings often mark regime changes, and the last one occurred on July 16th at $118,000. Currently, the metric sits at -1.2%, which means LTH supply is decreasing while the share of young short-term holder (STH) supply is growing. This reflects an active redistribution, with long-term holders selling coins to newer participants as the price rises. Adler highlights that the last LTH accumulation peak occurred when Bitcoin traded between $100,000–$108,000, a range that provided the foundation for the most recent rally. Judging by historical patterns, another 2% of LTH supply could be distributed in the near term—equivalent to roughly 300,000 BTC. This suggests that while Bitcoin still holds strong above the $110,000 level, selling pressure from long-term holders remains an important factor. If demand from ETFs and institutions does not keep pace, the market could face renewed downward pressure before stabilizing. For now, this shift in aging velocity underscores that the balance of power is tilting, with long-term holders gradually passing supply to new players. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Structure Questioned As VDD Mirrors Historic Tops Price Analysis: Consolidation Holds, Resistance Ahead Bitcoin’s 8-hour chart shows the price trading at $111,711, consolidating just above the $111K level after weeks of volatility. The chart highlights a recovery attempt from late August’s dip near $108K, but BTC has yet to reclaim stronger resistance zones. The moving averages show mixed signals: the 50 SMA (blue) remains below the 100 SMA (green) and 200 SMA (red), indicating bearish momentum still dominates the mid-term. Price action is currently hovering between the 50 SMA at $111K and the 100 SMA at $114K, which forms an immediate resistance zone. A decisive break above $114K could open the door to $118K, but failure to do so may result in another retest of $110K or even $108K. Related Reading: Binance Sees Massive Ethereum Whale Outflows: Demand Remains Strong Market structure remains choppy, with lower highs forming since the $124K peak in mid-August. This suggests selling pressure persists as bulls struggle to regain control. On the downside, strong support lies near the $108K region, which has held multiple times. Losing this level would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $105K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading at a decisive level after surging to fresh all-time highs, touching $124,000 before pulling back. Bulls remain in control, but the market now shows signs of hesitation, with BTC struggling to confirm momentum above $120,000. This price action reflects indecision among traders as the market balances profit-taking with renewed accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum On-Chain Volume Soars To $13 Billion, Approaching Historic Records On-chain data highlights a key shift in dynamics. After a sharp increase in the 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) — a metric often used to track long-term holder activity and selling pressure — the indicator has now dropped significantly. This decline suggests that selling pressure from older coins has eased, even after recent profit-taking. For investors, the message is clear: while Bitcoin remains in a powerful uptrend, the inability to stay firmly above $120K highlights a critical juncture. If selling pressure continues to ease, BTC could consolidate and prepare for another breakout attempt. However, failure to hold these levels may embolden bears who are already speculating on a potential top. The coming sessions will be pivotal in defining Bitcoin’s next move. Bitcoin Selling Pressure Eases As CDD Drops According to top analyst Darkfost, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator remains one of the most reliable tools for gauging selling pressure, particularly from long-term holders (LTHs). The metric measures how long a Bitcoin has been held before being moved, essentially combining both volume and coin age. In most cases, older BTC are moved in preparation for selling, making CDD spikes a strong indicator of distribution phases in the market. On July 23rd, the 30-day moving average of CDD surged to its highest level of this cycle, reaching nearly 1.35 million. This suggested that a significant amount of long-held Bitcoin was moved — and likely sold — as investors looked to lock in profits at or near record prices. Despite this wave of selling, however, Bitcoin’s price action has held up remarkably well, signaling robust demand and the ability of the market to absorb supply without major breakdowns. Since late July, this selling pressure has notably eased. The 30-dma CDD has been steadily declining throughout August, indicating fewer older coins are hitting the market. This trend highlights renewed stability and suggests accumulation is regaining dominance over distribution. For Bitcoin’s broader outlook, the decline in CDD is a bullish signal. It shows that despite profit-taking, strong demand underpins current price levels, allowing BTC to consolidate near highs. If this trend continues, the groundwork may be laid for another leg higher in the ongoing bull cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases Price Analysis: Testing Key Support Level Bitcoin is consolidating just below its recent all-time high, with the chart showing clear resistance at $123,217. After briefly touching the $124K region, BTC retraced and is now trading around $117,497, sitting on top of key moving averages. The 50-day SMA (~$117,337) is acting as immediate short-term support, while the 100-day SMA (~$115,366) provides an additional safety net for bulls. The 200-day SMA (~$110,551) remains far below, reflecting the strong momentum of the current uptrend. The structure suggests indecision, with buyers defending support but failing to break above the $123K–$124K zone. A clean breakout above this level could open the path toward $130K and beyond, confirming continuation of the bull run. Conversely, a breakdown below $115K would signal weakness and expose BTC to deeper retracements. Related Reading: Memecoins Lose Ground In Market Share As Ethereum Absorbs Liquidity Momentum indicators suggest consolidation, not distribution, which aligns with the broader narrative of long-term holders selling into strength while new buyers step in. This healthy churn has allowed Bitcoin to sustain high levels without collapsing, a sign of structural resilience. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading at a decisive point after recently setting new all-time highs, but momentum appears to be shifting. Despite briefly pushing past $120,000, BTC failed to sustain levels above its record, and the breakout above ATH remains unconfirmed. This lack of follow-through has fueled bearish speculation, with some analysts warning that the market could be facing increased downside risk in the short term. Related Reading: Memecoins Lose Ground In Market Share As Ethereum Absorbs Liquidity At the same time, on-chain data paints a more constructive picture for long-term stability. According to the latest insights, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort—those holding Bitcoin between six months and two years—has significantly increased its supply. Since April, when BTC was trading at $83,000, their holdings have grown from 3.551 million BTC to 5.191 million BTC, a remarkable increase of 1.64 million BTC. This accumulation suggests strong conviction among seasoned investors, even as short-term volatility challenges the market. While traders focus on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $120,000 and establish a firm breakout, the ongoing buildup by long-term holders reinforces the broader bullish structure. The clash between short-term weakness and long-term strength will likely define Bitcoin’s next major move. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Signal Strength According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s latest test of the all-time high at $118,000 showed a very different behavior compared to past cycles. During this move, long-term holders (LTHs) who have been holding coins between six months and two years engaged in some profit-taking. Data reveals their seven-day average spending climbed to 20,000 BTC. However, this level is far below the typical distribution spikes of previous cycles, where spending often surged to between 40,000 and 70,000 BTC. This more moderate selling activity suggests that the conviction among long-term holders remains strong. Rather than aggressively taking profits, many are choosing to continue accumulating or simply holding their positions. Adler highlights that accumulation still outweighs distribution, reflecting confidence in the market’s future direction. Such behavior from experienced participants typically signals a healthier, more sustainable bull phase, where selling pressure is absorbed without disrupting the broader uptrend. Despite this encouraging backdrop, Bitcoin faces a crucial technical test. To confirm the strength of the latest move, BTC needs to decisively push above the $125,000 level. A breakout beyond this resistance would likely validate the resilience shown by long-term holders and open the path toward further price discovery. If bulls succeed, the combination of institutional demand, long-term accumulation, and reduced selling pressure could drive the next major rally. Conversely, failure to reclaim $125,000 in the near term might give bears room to test lower levels before the next leg up. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH SOPR-7d Signals Healthy Demand: Market Absorbs Selling Pressure Testing Support After ATH Rejection Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows price retreating after a sharp rejection near $123,200, just below the recent all-time high at $124,000. Following this failed breakout attempt, BTC has slipped back toward $117,300, where it is currently holding above the key confluence of the 100 and 200 moving averages. This zone between $116,900 and $117,600 is acting as immediate support. A decisive breakdown here could expose further downside toward $115,000. However, the moving averages continue to slope upward, reflecting an underlying bullish structure despite the short-term weakness. Related Reading: TRON Long-Term Holders See Massive Gains As TRX Pushes Toward Multi-Year Highs The repeated rejection at $123,000–$124,000 highlights the importance of this resistance. Bulls will need to reclaim this zone with conviction to confirm momentum and extend the uptrend toward higher levels. Until then, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with traders closely watching if support at the $117K region holds. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin trades at a critical level, holding steady above $118,000 but failing to gain momentum for a breakout. Price action has continued to tighten over the past several days, and analysts now anticipate a major move once either key supply zones are absorbed or demand breaks below. The market sits on edge, waiting for confirmation of the next trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level Fresh data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable shift in long-term holder (LTH) behavior. At $118K, LTH supply began to decline, signaling the start of a distribution phase. These holders, known for accumulating during downtrends and selling into strength, are now gradually offloading their positions. This transition often marks the later stages of a bullish trend and echoes patterns from previous macro cycles. As Bitcoin struggles to break past resistance and LTHs reduce exposure, pressure continues to build. A clean breakout above the current range could reignite momentum and drive BTC to new highs, while a break below support may trigger a sharper correction. Either way, the current standoff won’t last much longer. The coming days could bring the decisive move that sets the tone for Bitcoin’s next major leg. LTH Distribution Begins As Bitcoin Mirrors Fall 2024 Pattern Top analyst Axel Adler has highlighted a key development in Bitcoin’s current structure. According to Adler, LTH supply has declined by 52,000 BTC so far, marking a significant shift in behavior. These holders, typically seen as the market’s most patient participants, are now beginning to reduce their exposure—just as Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation range. This shift from accumulation to distribution closely mirrors the LTH behavior seen during fall 2024, when Bitcoin climbed from $65,000 to $100,000. In that period, long-term investors steadily sold into strength as the market pushed higher, locking in profits as late-stage momentum kicked in. Adler suggests that if the current trend continues, the distribution phase will intensify with each price leg up—just as it did in previous macro cycles. The timing of this transition is critical. Bitcoin continues to hover just below all-time highs, while altcoins have begun to show signs of increased volatility. As Ethereum and other major assets begin to move more aggressively, capital rotation may accelerate. Whether this benefits or pressures Bitcoin remains to be seen. Related Reading: TRON Sees $1B USDT Mint: Liquidity Wave Incoming? BTC Holds Steady As Tight Range Continues Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077, with the 4-hour chart showing price currently hovering around $118,817. After bouncing from the lower boundary last week, BTC has managed to recover and now trades above the 50 SMA ($118,175), 100 SMA ($118,228), and well above the 200 SMA ($113,777). These moving averages have flattened, reflecting the ongoing equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Despite several tests of the $118K zone, BTC continues to respect the key support levels, showing resilience as selling pressure remains muted. Volume, however, remains low—suggesting that traders are still in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout before committing to larger positions. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Futures Open Interest Hits Record $7.85B – Is ETH Overheating? The upper resistance at $122K remains untouched since mid-July, and each approach has been met with rejection. A clean break above this level with volume confirmation would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend and could trigger a move toward new all-time highs. On the downside, a break below $115K would invalidate the current structure and likely lead to increased volatility. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has remained trapped in a tight range between $115K and $120K for the past 10 days, signaling an extended phase of price compression. With bulls unable to push the price above the $120,000 resistance, analysts are increasingly warning that a correction may be imminent. The coming days are expected to be decisive, as both technical and on-chain fundamentals point to a potential surge in volatility. Related Reading: Ethereum Adoption Accelerates As Daily Transactions Set 2025 Record According to data from CryptoQuant, a key long-term metric—the Monthly Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) to Yearly CDD ratio—has reached an anomalously high level of 0.25. This is occurring within the $106,000 to $118,000 price range, a zone that has seen heavy long-term holder activity. Historically, similar CDD spikes were observed during the 2014 macro peak and the 2019 corrective phase, both of which marked periods of intense market distribution. This unusual on-chain behavior reflects heightened movement of long-dormant coins, suggesting that experienced holders may be taking profits at current levels. While this doesn’t confirm an immediate trend reversal, it reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s current consolidation is a critical inflection point—one that could either lead to renewed upside or trigger a deeper correction if bulls fail to regain momentum soon. Long-Term Holders Begin Distributing, But Rally Still Intact Top analyst Axel Adler has shared insights highlighting a key shift in Bitcoin market behavior: the sharp rise in the Monthly CDD to Yearly CDD ratio indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to actively move dormant coins back into circulation. Historically, such elevated CDD levels have marked periods of heightened activity from experienced investors, often signaling a distribution phase where profits are realized after prolonged holding. These spikes are significant because they suggest that coins held for years are now re-entering the market. According to Adler, this kind of activity isn’t random—it typically comes from holders with deep market knowledge who recognize potential turning points. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is over. While it may cap short-term upside and introduce volatility, current macro and institutional trends provide a solid counterbalance. Treasury demand remains strong, and Bitcoin ETF inflows are still flowing steadily, acting as a buffer against excessive downward pressure. This structural support is crucial in maintaining overall bullish momentum, even as some distribution unfolds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Still Reluctant To Sell – Supply Active Data Shows Room For Upside Sideways Movement Persists Below $120K Resistance Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate in a tight range, as shown in the 12-hour chart. Price action remains compressed between the $115,724 key support and the $122,077 resistance level. After a strong impulse earlier this month, momentum has clearly cooled, with BTC now oscillating within this horizontal channel for over 10 days. Notably, the price is currently hovering near $118,500—right around the 50-period moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic support since early July. The 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages remain well below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish despite the pause in upward movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Big-Money Flow Hits 3-Year High With $100B In Weekly Volume However, volume has steadily declined during this consolidation phase, signaling indecision and a potential lack of conviction among buyers at current levels. A breakout above $122,000 could renew bullish momentum, opening the door for a run toward new highs, while a breakdown below $115,700 would expose BTC to deeper retracement levels, likely targeting the 100 MA near $109,800. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Since breaking it last week, Bitcoin is grappling with the $100,000 milestone, struggling to stay above this critical level. Despite the price facing resistance, Bitcoin continues to show strength, signaling potential for further upward momentum in the near term. Investors and analysts are watching closely as the market seeks confirmation of its next move. Related […]