Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a critical phase in its cycle, prompting analysts to debate whether the long-standing bull run is finally nearing its peak. With volatility tightening and historical cycle data indicating a potentially explosive breakout, market experts are closely watching the next few weeks for signals that reveal the market’s current position and future direction. Bitcoin Bull Run Cycle Nears Endgame Market analyst, ‘CRYPTOBIRD’ has warned that the Bitcoin bull run could end within 30 days. In a thread on X social media, he noted that this current cycle has now reached 1,038 days since the November 2022 bottom, which is equivalent to 97.5% of a standard cycle. Historically, the final 2.5% of Bitcoin’s bull runs have delivered the most dramatic price surges, often catching both retail and institutional investors off guard. Related Reading: These Analysts Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash And Their Forecasts Say It’s Not Over Examining the cycle bottom-to-top chart, BTC’s current market structure aligns closely with that of past cycles, where it experienced its largest accelerations just before cycle completion. The black line representing the current 2022-2025 trajectory shows Bitcoin consolidating after strong gains, much like the 2016 and 2020 cycles before their peaks. From a technical standpoint, the expert notes that BTC is trading in an unusually tight 5% range between $110,500 and $116,000, signaling heavy compression. However, the cryptocurrency recently broke down again and is now sitting slightly above $109,600. CRYPTOBIRD highlights key levels: 200-week SMA at $53,111 acting as long-term macro support, the 50-week SMA near $99,000 as the bull market floor and the SPX correlation (-0.19). The analyst explained that short-term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) support at $111,296 still intact. However, compression has created conditions where any breakout could set the tone for the remainder of the year. Furthermore, the Current Trend Framework (CTF) is at $114,916, signaling bearish periods. Presently, price is gravitating toward the 200-day BPRO at $112,250, and if Bitcoin can hold above it, bulls could remain in control. Halving Math Signals Final BTC Breakdown Continuing his analysis, CRYPTOBIRD emphasized that Bitcoin is now 523 days post-halving, placing it firmly within the historical “peak window” of 518-580 days after each halving event. Every previous major cycle top has occurred in this exact range, suggesting Bitcoin is entering the statistical sweet spot for its final move. Related Reading: Strategist Publishes Bitcoin ‘Cheat Code’ As Factors That Led To Previous ATHs Return Adding to the setup is the market’s present volatility squeeze. Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to 2,250, its lowest reading of 2025, while 50-day volatility sits at 2,800. The analyst notes that such compressed volatility rarely lasts and typically precedes a violent breakout within two to four weeks. Institutions also appear to be positioning accordingly, with Bitcoin ETF flows showing distribution. Sentiment indicators add another layer, as the Fear and Greed index stands at 44, indicating rising fear rather than euphoria. Meanwhile, RSI is neutral at 46, suggesting that momentum has cooled but not collapsed. Despite September’s reputation as Bitcoin’s weakest month, CRYPTOBIRD notes that it gained 4.4% month-to-date, defying its historical 6.2% decline. This anomaly, combined with October, which is typically seen as a green month, could set the stage for a bullish Q4. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Over the years, investor sentiment has been one reliable way to analyze the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. Based on recent on-chain data, an analyst has pointed out how the changing investor sentiment could affect the world’s largest cryptocurrency over the next few weeks. Can BTC Price Charge To New All-Time High? In a recent post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr explained how the Bitcoin market dynamics could significantly shift in the coming weeks. This projection is based on recent changes in the “Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Nears Major Resistance At $2,200, Why A 13% Crash Could Follow The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index refers to a metric that aggregates the average sentiment of investors in the BTC market. The indicator is divided into five zones, including extreme fear, fear, neutral, greed, and extreme greed. Extreme fear signals that traders and investors are moving with high caution, while extreme greed suggests an overheating market condition with traders flooding in with new positions. Historically, periods of extreme fear have been correlated with market bottoms while price corrections usually occur during extreme greed. According to Adler Jr., the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen by approximately 22 percentage points over the past two months. This decline has seen the BTC metric shift from extreme greed to a more moderate level of greed. Going further, the on-chain analyst mentioned that if the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops by another 10 to 15 points in the near future, the market may experience a cooling-off period where participants could have become accustomed to negative factors and emotional price movements may even subside. Adler Jr added in his post: At the current pace, it may take approximately 4 to 6 weeks for the index to drop by an additional 10–15 points. The analyst also highlighted that the 30-day (monthly) moving average appears to be reaching a local bottom, one seen at the end of the Bitcoin price correction to $54,000. The last time the Fear and Greed Index monthly SMA reached this level, the premier cryptocurrency climbed to a new all-time high price. If this historical pattern holds, investors could see the BTC price break out of its consolidation range. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is just beneath the $84,000 level, reflecting a 0.5% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price To $27: Why Current ‘Boredom Phase’ Could Trigger Epic Rally Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has shattered records again, reaching a new all-time high of $97,903 just hours ago. The cryptocurrency market is exciting as Bitcoin leads the charge, delivering explosive gains that have fueled widespread bullish sentiment. Investors and traders alike speculate this rally is far from over, with Bitcoin edging closer to the monumental $100,000 mark. Related Reading: Ethereum Consolidation Continues – Charts Signal Potential Breakout Key data from Coinglass reveals another significant milestone: Bitcoin’s Open Interest has reached an all-time high. This surge in Open Interest indicates a flood of capital entering the market, signaling heightened activity and confidence among traders. Such metrics further confirm the euphoric state of the market, where optimism reigns supreme and momentum continues to build. With Bitcoin’s price rallying at an unprecedented pace and market indicators hitting record levels, the stage is set for what many believe to be an almost inevitable breakout above the psychological $100,000 level. The market’s focus is whether BTC can sustain its trajectory or if a temporary pullback will precede the next leg up. Either way, the spotlight remains firmly on Bitcoin as it cements its status as the leading force in this explosive bull run. Bitcoin Greed Enters The Market Greed has gripped the Bitcoin market, with the average Fear and Greed Index hitting 76%, signaling heightened optimism among investors. This elevated level of greed suggests that market participants are buying aggressively, anticipating that Bitcoin’s price will continue its upward trajectory without significant setbacks. Such sentiment often leads to increased speculative behavior as traders look to capitalize on the ongoing rally. Critical data from Coinglass supports this narrative, revealing that Bitcoin Open Interest—representing the total value of outstanding derivative contracts—has reached an all-time high of $62.69 billion. This unprecedented figure highlights the speculative nature of the current market, as traders use leveraged instruments like futures to amplify their potential gains. While this fuels bullish momentum, it also adds volatility, making the market susceptible to sharp moves in either direction. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s optimistic environment starkly contrasts the broader crypto market, where altcoins continue to struggle to reclaim yearly highs. While BTC leads the charge with record-breaking performance, altcoins have yet to catch up, underscoring Bitcoin’s dominance during this market cycle phase. Related Reading: Solana Analyst Expects A Retrace Before It Breaks ATH – Targets Revealed As speculative activity and investor optimism drive Bitcoin’s price action, the market waits to see if the rally has more fuel or if a correction looms. For now, Bitcoin remains the focal point of this euphoric bull run. BTC Enters Price Discovery Again Bitcoin is trading at $97,500 after setting a fresh all-time high, continuing its explosive rally. The market leader has entered price discovery—a phase often characterized by parabolic trends like the one currently driving BTC higher. Investor anticipation is growing, with the $100,000 mark only 2.5% away. This psychological milestone could act as significant resistance, potentially holding Bitcoin down for an extended period. A consolidation phase around this level would benefit the broader market, allowing altcoins to catch up and the rally to maintain stability. However, price discovery can be unpredictable. If Bitcoin fails to reach the $100,000 mark in the coming days, the market could see a pullback as bullish momentum cools. A retrace to lower demand zones, such as the $88,500 level, would provide the market with a necessary reset before the next leg upward. Related Reading: Dogecoin Breaking Out Of Falling Wedge Pattern – Analyst Reveals Target Despite the possibility of a short-term correction, Bitcoin’s price action remains strong. Its dominance over the crypto market and the current euphoric sentiment suggest bulls are still firmly in control. As traders and investors closely monitor price movements, Bitcoin’s ability to push through key psychological levels will determine the next phase of this historic rally. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has fallen into a crucial region. What could this mean for the price of the premier cryptocurrency? What Does The Falling NVT Golden Cross Mean For Price? In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Burakkesmeci revealed that the price of Bitcoin might have reached a “local bottom.” This exciting prognosis is based on the latest movement by the “NVT Golden Cross” metric. For context, the “Network Value to Transactions” ratio is an on-chain indicator that estimates the difference between the Bitcoin market capitalization and transaction volume. Typically, a high NVT value signals that an asset’s price is high compared to the network’s transaction volume, suggesting that the coin is overvalued. Related Reading: BNB Price Poised for Takeoff: Will It Be The Next to Rally? Conversely, when the value of the NVT metric is low, it implies that the coin’s market value is small relative to the transaction volume. Usually, this indicates that the asset is undervalued and its price could still have room for upside movement. Now, the Golden Cross indicator is a modified iteration of the NVT ratio, and it helps to mark gradual buy and sell zones in short-term trends. According to Burakkesmeci explained that when the NVT GC exceeds 2.2 (the red zone), it means that the price in a short-term trend is overheating (and the formation of a potential local top). On the other hand, the NVT Golden Cross dipping below -1.6 suggests that the price decline is wearing out, signaling a potential bottom. Burakkesmeci noted that these local tops and bottoms are regions rather than just precise levels. As shown in the chart above, the NVT Golden Cross has crossed beneath -1.6 and is currently around -3.3, suggesting that the Bitcoin price is at a local bottom. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, this could represent a “gradual buying opportunity” for investors looking to get into the market. Bitcoin Market In Extreme Greed Investors will want to proceed with caution especially as the Bitcoin market seems to be overheating in the long term. According to another CryptoQuant analyst, the Fear & Greed Index has flagged extreme greed for the premier cryptocurrency. Typically, when the Fear & Greed Index moves toward one end, there is a potential for market reversal depending on the sentiment. In this case, where the market is in extreme greed, the Bitcoin price may be about to witness a correction. Related Reading: XRP Price Rockets Upward: Bulls Poised for More Gains As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath $91,000, reflecting a 3% increase in the past day. According to CoinGecko data, the market leader is up by an impressive 19% in the last seven days. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Despite facing strong resistance at the $73,000 price level, leading to a notable price drop on Thursday after a remarkable week of upside movement, traders and investors are still betting on Bitcoin, demonstrating a persistent demand for the crypto asset. Bitcoin In Extreme Greed Territory Again After Fews Months Investors’ sentiment around Bitcoin has witnessed […]
In contrast to popular bullish sentiments, Bitcoin began October on a bearish note, recording a price decline of over 7% in the first three days of the month. However, while the BTC market experienced an uptick on Friday as data from the US Labor Department indicated incoming rate cuts, investors have generally retained a cautionary approach. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Crash Might Not Be Over, Why $60,365 Is Important Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index Touches 37 As Investors Become Uncertain In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username maartunn shared that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index currently signals fear following the asset’s recent price slump The Fear and Greed Index generally measures the emotions, moods, and behaviors of the crypto market as well as predicts potential trends based on investor sentiment. The index operates on a 0-100 scale, where values above 50 indicate greed, with anything over 74 representing extreme greed, while values below 50 signal fear, and under 24, extreme fear. According to maartunn, the Fear and Greed Index is presently at 37, indicating that many investors are cautious about adding the leading cryptocurrency to their portfolio. In particular, the analyst notes that each time the Fear and Greed Index reached the fear level since 2023, Bitcoin’s price has formed a bottom, i.e. reached the lowest point during a price decline, and is set for price reversal. Notably, Bitcoin already showed an upward movement on Friday after starting October with a price decline. However, it cannot be said that the price bottom has now occurred as Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the asset is still far above its next significant support level following months of consolidation between $55,000 – 70,000. Although, if the premier cryptocurrency has bottomed out, it could be heading for a price breakout in line with popular expectations for a bullish “uptober”. For context, October has proven to be the most frequent bullish month for Bitcoin resulting in an average gain of 22.90% in the last 11 years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dip Explained: Key Causes And Where To Expect A Bounce Back To $70,000 Dominant Activity Of Stablecoins Supports Fear And Uncertainty Among Investors In addition to the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index of 37, the crypto market has also experienced an increase in market activity of stablecoins namely the Tether USD (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). This development indicates that investors are opting for less volatile assets than risky coins such as Bitcoin, which is often due to uncertainty and fear of impending price crash. CryptoQuant analyst BaroVirtual has attributed this fear to several factors including weak retail market participation, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the SEC’s hesitation to launch a Spot Ethereum ETF Options. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to exchange hands at 62,071 following a 2.17% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is down 17.91% and valued at $29.71 billion. Featured image from The Motley Fool, chart from Tradingview