On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross is currently showing a trajectory that could suggest a bearish outcome for the BTC price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Near Overheated Territory Right Now As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the NVT Golden Cross has a high value at the moment. The “NVT Ratio” is an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. The market cap here is simply the total value of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply at the current spot price, while the transaction volume is a measure of the total amount of the asset that’s becoming involved in transfer activities on the network. Related Reading: XRP & These Altcoins Share The Same TA Fate—What’s Coming? When the value of the NVT Ratio is high, it means BTC’s value (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend can be a sign that the coin is overvalued. On the other hand, the metric being low suggests the cryptocurrency’s price could be due a rebound to the upside, as the market cap isn’t overheated compared to the volume. In the context of the current topic, a modified form of the NVT Ratio known as the NVT Golden Cross is the indicator of interest. The NVT Golden Cross is a metric similar to the Bollinger Bands, which compares the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio against its long-term one to determine whether a top or bottom is near. The indicator uses the 10-day moving average (MA) for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term one. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross recently touched a high value. The indicator’s rise was so sharp that it entered into a special zone past the 2.2 mark. In this region, the asset’s price has often formed some sort of top. The same also held true during the visit into the zone this time around, with BTC’s price witnessing a bearish reversal. As the coin’s price has gone through a retrace in the past week, the metric has also cooled off. Despite the decline, however, its value still remains relatively high. As the quant notes, Currently, the NVT indicates that the pullback is likely to continue and that the recent price rise was driven by manipulation. For the upward trend to be sustainable, transaction volumes on the network must increase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly Preview: Tariffs, Whales, And Volatility Ahead Historically, bottoms have tended to occur when the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has gone under the -1.6 mark. So far, the indicator has only dropped to 1.8, meaning that it still has quite the ways to go before it enters into this region. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,300, down almost 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading below crucial support levels after massive selling pressure swept through the market. Since late January, BTC has lost over 29% of its value, fueling fear and uncertainty among investors. With global trade war fears intensifying and volatile macroeconomic conditions shaking the crypto and U.S. stock markets, traders are bracing for further downside risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drops Below 200-Day MA – Next Key Support Lies At $66K According To Mayer Multiple Market sentiment remains overwhelmingly bearish as Bitcoin fails to hold key technical levels. Crypto analyst Daan shared a technical analysis on X, revealing that BTC has broken below the Daily 200-Moving Average (MA) and has now retested it as resistance. Historically, this pattern signals a continuation of bearish price action, indicating that BTC could see more downside in the coming weeks. With Bitcoin struggling to regain momentum, the market’s next major move will depend on whether bulls can reclaim lost ground or if further selling pressure will drive BTC toward lower support levels. As uncertainty grows, investors remain cautious, waiting for clear signals before making significant moves. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize or if the current downtrend will continue. Bitcoin Downtrend Deepens as Bears Maintain Control Bitcoin has remained in a persistent downtrend since late January, with fear continuing to set lower price targets among investors. Many now question whether the BTC bull cycle is over, as selling pressure intensifies and market sentiment turns increasingly bearish. The uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions has fueled this decline, with volatility increasing since the U.S. elections in November 2024. Given the ongoing trade war fears and unstable global markets, it appears that this period of uncertainty will continue to weigh on Bitcoin’s price action. Crypto analyst Daan recently shared technical insights on X, highlighting that BTC has lost the 200-day moving average (MA) and has now retested it as resistance. This signals that bears remain in control, and bulls have a lot of work to do to reclaim this level. According to Daan, Bitcoin experienced a similar scenario last year, where price action chopped around these levels for over three months before breaking out. If history repeats itself, BTC could be entering another extended consolidation phase, keeping prices range-bound for months. Related Reading: XRP Flirts With A Daily Range Breakdown – Price Must Hold Above $2 Level However, if bulls fail to reclaim the 200-day MA/EMA, further downside could follow, bringing Bitcoin to even lower price levels. With bears still in control, the market remains highly fragile, and investors are watching closely to see whether BTC can stabilize or if another major drop is on the horizon. The next few weeks will be critical as Bitcoin either finds a foothold or continues deeper into bearish territory. Bitcoin Stuck Between $80K and $85K as Fear Continues Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading between $80,000 and $85,000, struggling to reclaim key price levels amid growing panic selling and fear. With selling pressure dominating the market, investors remain uncertain about Bitcoin’s next move as bulls fail to push BTC into a recovery phase. For a bullish reversal, BTC must hold above $80,000 and reclaim the $86,000 level, which would signal renewed buying interest and possibly set the stage for a stronger uptrend. However, Bitcoin may enter a sideways consolidation phase below $90,000–$88,000, prolonging the uncertainty and keeping price action choppy for weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Rally Above ATH To $128K – On-Chain Indicator Signals Potential Recovery If BTC fails to defend the $80K level, the risk of a deeper correction increases, potentially pushing prices below critical support zones. A breakdown below $80K could trigger another wave of selling, sending BTC toward lower demand levels and extending the current bearish market structure. Traders remain cautious, closely watching whether Bitcoin can stabilize or if another major decline is ahead. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView