Bitcoin is trading above the $112,000 level, but its momentum is faltering as selling pressure intensifies. Analysts are divided on what comes next, with some calling for another correction and others suggesting that BTC may continue consolidating before any decisive move. The uncertainty highlights the fragile balance between bullish optimism and market caution. Related Reading: Bitmine Adds Another $65.3M In Ethereum – Details Top analyst Darkfost shared insights that bring back a long-running debate: Does Bitcoin’s traditional cycle structure still hold? While opinions vary, one factor remains consistent across cycles—the influence of long-term holders. Dormant BTC, when moved, often unleashes powerful selling pressure, a dynamic still capable of shaking the market. This cycle has already confirmed that pattern. As BTC climbed to its all-time high earlier this year, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—a key on-chain metric tracking the movement of older coins—spiked noticeably. Historically, such spikes have aligned with tops and significant corrections, showing that long-term holders continue to play a decisive role in shaping market direction. Value Days Destroyed Signals Potential Relief For Bitcoin According to Darkfost, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric is offering crucial insights into Bitcoin’s current market structure. Much like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), VDD tracks the movement of older coins, but it adds another layer by weighting this activity according to price. This adjustment introduces the concept of “value destruction,” giving more weight to long-term holders selling when BTC prices are higher, and less when they are lower. As a result, VDD provides a more nuanced picture of the influence older coins exert on the market. Recently, VDD reached a level of 2.4, a threshold historically associated with significant selling pressure. In past cycles, spikes to this range have often marked moments when long-term holders locked in profits, contributing to local tops or sharp corrections. The latest spike aligned with Bitcoin’s push to its all-time high, reflecting the familiar pattern of dormant supply resurfacing at peak prices. However, VDD has since been declining, now approaching levels similar to those seen during prior correction phases. This suggests that the intensity of selling from long-term holders is easing. If this trend continues, the market may find relief from one of its most persistent sources of supply pressure. Ultimately, easing VDD levels could set the stage for renewed upward momentum, but the key factor will be demand. Without strong inflows and renewed conviction from buyers, the reduction in selling pressure alone may not be enough to spark a sustainable rally. Still, the moderation of long-term holder activity is a promising sign that Bitcoin could stabilize and prepare for another attempt higher in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Base Turns Neutral-Bearish As Flows Stay Weak Price Action Details: Pushing Above $110K Bitcoin is currently trading at $112,286, showing a slight recovery after weeks of selling pressure that pulled the price down from its recent all-time high near $123,217. The chart reveals that BTC is still consolidating within a corrective structure, testing the mid-range between support and resistance levels. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending above the current price, acting as near-term resistance around $115K, while the 100-day moving average (green line) sits close to current levels, providing a short-term pivot point. The 200-day moving average (red line) is much lower at $101K, serving as a deeper structural support if bearish pressure intensifies. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Exchange Inflows Overshadow Stablecoin Demand – Details BTC is forming higher lows after its recent dip to the $110K area, signaling that buyers are cautiously stepping back in. However, momentum remains limited, and the chart shows the market has yet to reclaim any major resistance levels. A breakout above $115K would be needed to shift sentiment and open the way toward retesting the $120K–$123K zone. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp correction after losing the $115K support level, triggering a wave of uncertainty across the market. Following weeks of consolidation in a tight range, BTC has broken down, fueling debates among analysts about the asset’s short-term direction. Some experts warn that Bitcoin could face further declines as investors take profits and sentiment turns cautious. Others maintain a more optimistic view, suggesting that the correction is a healthy pause before BTC makes another attempt to reclaim its all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Selling More Aggressively As Bull Cycle Matures: Risk Appetite Fades? Key data from CryptoQuant adds another layer to the analysis. Metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in an “overheated” state, with valuation indicators signaling excessive bullish momentum. This suggests that the current consolidation phase may extend further as the market works to reset. Until demand stabilizes and new liquidity flows in, Bitcoin could continue to trade in a volatile environment, with the $112K–$115K range acting as a critical battleground between bulls and bears. With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and global macroeconomic factors still in play, Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on a combination of market sentiment, institutional demand, and the broader risk appetite of investors in the coming weeks. Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Signals Overvaluation Top analyst Darkfost recently shared insights on X, highlighting the significance of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow reversion (S2F) chart as a reliable indicator to assess Bitcoin’s valuation cycles. According to Darkfost, when the S2F metric rises above a value of 3, it typically indicates that Bitcoin is entering an overheated phase, signaling a high probability of a market correction. Currently, the S2F value is approaching this critical threshold, prompting Darkfost to caution investors that it may be an opportune moment to lock in profits before a deeper correction unfolds. Darkfost’s analysis points to historical patterns where similar S2F readings have preceded substantial price declines. In September 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $63,500 to $30,800 after the S2F metric crossed into the overvaluation zone. Again, in November 2021, BTC crashed from $67,000 to $15,800 following a peak S2F signal. More recently, in March 2024, Bitcoin corrected sharply from $73,000 to $54,000 after entering overheated territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Holds Strong Despite Price Drop: Accumulation Trend Remains Intact This preset alert system, designed for long-term market participants, serves as a strategic tool to help investors navigate Bitcoin’s volatile cycles. While the current correction might seem abrupt, Darkfost emphasizes that such pullbacks are essential for the market to reset and build a sustainable foundation for future growth. Investors are urged to remain cautious and monitor the S2F chart closely as Bitcoin navigates this critical phase. BTC Struggles To Reclaim The $115K Level Bitcoin is attempting to recover after its recent decline, currently trading around $115,019 as shown in the 8-hour chart. The price has managed to bounce from the $112K support zone but faces strong resistance at the $115,724 level, which previously acted as a key support during the two-week consolidation range in July. The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are now positioned just above the current price, adding to the overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA around $110,677 continues to provide solid support, keeping the overall uptrend intact for now. However, BTC must reclaim the $115,724 level and consolidate above it to regain bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline Volume has been relatively low during the recent bounce, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction. If Bitcoin fails to break above the $115K resistance decisively, it risks falling back to test the $112K zone again. On the upside, a successful breakout above $115,724 could open the path to retest the $122,077 all-time high resistance. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
In a thread on X, business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains where the global economy currently stands and what that means for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Describing what he terms a “short and shallow” full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025, Tomas believes this fleeting cycle was masked in part by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar. He explains, “The general gist of the theory was that we saw an abnormal, ‘short and shallow’ full business cycle over recent years that suppressed traditional PMI measures both in the US and globally.” According to Tomas, his analysis relies on four real-time measures of the global economy, which he tracked in inverted trade-weighted dollar index, Baltic Dry Index, 10-year Chinese Government bond yields, and the copper/gold ratio. By converting these individual data points into rolling yearly z-scores, he created an “equal-weighted composite z-score” he calls the Global Economy Index (GEI). He notes, “You can see clearly here that the GEI was underwhelming to the upside in 2023 and 2024 (didn’t reach the ‘business cycle peaking zone’). And then fell to levels typically correlated with the end of a business cycle in late 2024/early 2025 (‘business cycle troughing zone’).” This composite measure appeared to lead US Manufacturing PMI data prior to the disruptive events of 2020, and Tomas highlights that relationship by shifting the GEI forward by six months. He observes a break in the pattern around the 2020 pandemic and the following large-scale central bank interventions, yet still sees the possibility that GEI’s recent rebound indicates a new “fresh” business cycle taking hold, potentially peaking around late 2026 or 2027. “Based on historical precedent,” he writes, “this new business cycle could reasonably be expected to peak around late 2026/2027.” He also addresses the interplay between GEI, equities, and PMIs, remarking that the stock market usually leads business survey measures but tends to lag the GEI. “If we peel back the layers of the onion, we find the stock market generally leads PMI measures but generally lags the GEI, so it lives somewhere in the middle, most of the time,” he says. He points out that the S&P 500 recently slipped into negative year-over-year territory, which he sees as typical of end-of-cycle price behavior. “The S&P 500 has now hit what would historically be an acceptable ‘end of business cycle bottoming level.’” The Implications For Bitcoin Bitcoin, however, remains the wildcard. Tomas acknowledges that the leading-lag relationship of the GEI, stock market, and PMIs might normally apply to most risk assets, yet this time around, Bitcoin appears to be deviating from its usual volatility in relation to the macro environment. “The piece of the jigsaw that doesn’t seem to fit at all (by historical precedent) is Bitcoin,” he writes. He acknowledges that it has so far resisted typical “end of business cycle” drawdowns, and he speculates on whether “Bitcoin has just grown up and become less volatile and less sensitive to business cycle swings — potentially due to ETFs and higher institutional interest.” Yet he also entertains the possibility that Bitcoin might simply be lagging the stock market. Regardless, “if Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle,” Tomas warns, “this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action.” Tomas concludes by cautioning that if the global economy index fails to maintain its recent bounce and instead rolls over to a new low, the outlook could turn more bearish, especially if so-called tariff headwinds worsen. He speculates that part of the rebound seen in copper/gold and shipping rates in early 2025 may have been frontloaded by tariff announcements, hinting that the recovery in those metrics might not be as robust as it appears on the surface. Still, the key takeaway from his perspective is that equities and the broader business cycle appear to be in late-stage territory, and if his assessment holds, a new cycle could begin soon — one that runs long enough to postpone any meaningful Bitcoin peak until late 2026 or even 2027, calling into question any assumptions about the enduring validity of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. “Another point to note is that the GEI is currently signaling the start of a new business cycle, which could reasonably be expected to peak in late 2026/2027. If Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle, this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action,” Tomas concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $79,428. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price retracement from its new all-time high of $108,353 on Tuesday to around $96,000 (a -11.5% pullback) has ignited intense speculation about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak. To address growing uncertainty, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, released a thread on X detailing 18 on-chain metrics and models. “Where is the Bitcoin TOP?” Schultze-Kraft asked, before laying out his detailed analysis. Has Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Top? 1/ MVRV Ratio: A longstanding measure of unrealized profitability, the MVRV ratio compares market value to realized value. Historically, readings above 7 signaled overheated conditions. “Currently hovering around 3 – room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft noted. This suggests that, in terms of aggregate unrealized profit, the market is not yet at levels that have previously coincided with macro tops. 2/ MVRV Pricing Bands: These bands are derived from the number of days MVRV has spent at extreme levels. The top band (3.2) has been exceeded for only about 6% of trading days historically. Today, this top band corresponds to a price of $127,000. Given that Bitcoin sits at around $98,000, the market has not yet reached a zone that historically marked top formations. 3/ Long-Term Holder Profitability (Relative Unrealized Profit & LTH-NUPL): Long-term holders (LTHs) are considered more stable market participants. Their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is currently at 0.75, entering what Schultze-Kraft terms the “euphoria zone.” He remarked that in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran another ~3x after hitting similar levels (though he clarified he is not necessarily expecting a repetition). Historical top formations often saw LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. Thus, while the metric is elevated, it has not yet reached previous cycle extremes. Notably, Schultze-Kraft admitted his observations may be conservative because the 2021 cycle peaked at somewhat lower profitability values than prior cycles. “I would’ve expected these profitability metrics to reach slightly higher levels,” he explained. This may signal diminishing peaks over successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical extremes may become less pronounced over time. 4/ Yearly Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: This metric measures the total realized profits relative to realized losses over the past year. Previous cycle tops have seen values above 700%. Currently at around 580%, it still shows “room to grow” before reaching levels historically associated with market tops. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes: Here’s Where The Nearest On-Chain Support Is 5/ Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio: An early on-chain metric, it compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization to the cumulative mining cost (Thermocap). In prior bull runs, the ratio’s extremes aligned with market tops. Schultze-Kraft advises caution with specific target ranges but notes that current levels are not close to previous extremes. The market remains below historical thermocap multiples that indicated overheated conditions in the past. 6/ Thermocap Multiples (32-64x): Historically, Bitcoin has topped at roughly 32-64 times the Thermocap. “We’re at the bottom of this range,” said Schultze-Kraft. Hitting the top band in today’s environment would imply a Bitcoin market cap just above $4 trillion. Given that current market capitalization ($1.924 trillion) is significantly lower, this suggests the possibility of substantial upside if historical patterns were to hold. 7/ The Investor Tool (2-Year SMA x5): The Investor Tool applies a 2-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) of price and a 5x multiple of that SMA to signal potential top zones. “Which currently denotes $230,000,” Schultze-Kraft noted. Since Bitcoin’s current price is well beneath this level, the indicator has not yet flashed an unequivocal top signal. 8/ Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT6): This model uses deviations from a 4-year moving average to capture cyclical price extremes. Historically, BPT6 was reached in previous bull markets, and that band now sits at $151,000. With Bitcoin at $98,000, the market is still short of levels previously associated with peak overheating. 9/ The True Market Mean & AVIV: The True Market Mean is an alternative cost basis model. Its MVRV-equivalent, known as AVIV, measures how far the market strays from this mean. Historically, tops have seen more than 3 standard deviations. Today’s equivalent “amounts to values above ~2.3,” while the current reading is 1.7. “Room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft said, implying that by this metric, the market is not yet stretched to its historical extremes. Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Could Push Price To $500,000: Expert 10/ Low/Mid/Top Cap Models (Delta Cap Derivatives): These models, based on the Delta Cap metric, historically showed diminished values during the 2021 cycle, never reaching the ‘Top Cap.’ Schultze-Kraft urges caution in interpreting these due to evolving market structures. Currently, the mid cap level sits at about $4 trillion, roughly a 2x from current levels. If the market followed previous patterns, this would allow for considerable growth before hitting levels characteristic of earlier tops. 11/ Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDDM): This metric gauges the spending behavior of long-held coins relative to the annual average. Historically, extreme values above 2.9 indicated that older coins were heavily hitting the market, often during late-stage bull markets. Presently, it’s at 2.2, not yet at extreme levels. “Room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft noted, suggesting not all long-term holders have fully capitulated to profit-taking. 12/ The Mayer Multiple: The Mayer Multiple compares price to the 200-day SMA. Overbought conditions in previous cycles aligned with values above 2.4. Currently, a Mayer Multiple above 2.4 would correspond to a price of approximately $167,000. With Bitcoin under $100,000, this threshold remains distant. 13/ The Cycle Extremes Oscillator Chart: This composite uses multiple binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk) to signal cycle extremes. “Currently 2/4 are on,” meaning only half of the tracked conditions for an overheated market are met. Previous tops aligned with a full suite of triggered signals. As such, the chart suggests the cycle has not yet reached the intensity of a full-blown peak. 14/ Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A price-based signal that has historically identified cycle peaks by comparing the short-term and long-term moving averages. “Currently the short moving average sits well below the larger ($74k vs. $129k),” Schultze-Kraft said, indicating no crossover and thus no classic top signal. 15/ Sell-Side Risk Ratio (LTH Version): This ratio compares total realized profits and losses to the realized market capitalization. High values correlate with volatile, late-stage bull markets. “The interesting zone is at 0.8% and above, while we’re currently at 0.46% – room to grow,” Schultze-Kraft explained. This implies that, despite recent profit-taking, the market has not yet entered the intense sell pressure zone often seen near tops. 16/ LTH Inflation Rate: Schultze-Kraft highlighted the Long-Term Holder Inflation Rate as “the most bearish chart I’ve come across so far.” While he did not provide specific target values or thresholds in this excerpt, he stated it “screams caution.” Investors should monitor this closely as it may signal increasing distribution from long-term holders or other structural headwinds. 17/ STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio): This metric measures the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders. “Currently elevated, but not sustained,” Schultze-Kraft noted. In other words, while short-term participants are taking profits, the data does not yet show the kind of persistent, aggressive profit-taking typical of a market top. 18/ SLRV Ribbons: These ribbons track trends in short- and long-term realized value. Historically, when both moving averages top out and cross over, it indicates a market turning point. “Both moving averages still trending up, only becomes bearish at rounded tops and crossover. No indication of a top at this time,” Schultze-Kraft stated. Overall, Schultze-Kraft emphasized that these metrics should not be used in isolation. “Never rely on single data points – confluence is your friend,” he advised. He acknowledged that this is a non-comprehensive list and that Bitcoin’s evolving ecosystem—now with ETFs, regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and geopolitical factors—may render historical comparisons less reliable. “This cycle can look vastly different, yet (historical) data is all we have,” he concluded. While numerous metrics show that Bitcoin’s market is moving into more euphoric and profitable territory, few have reached the historical extremes that marked previous cycle tops. Indicators like MVRV, profitability ratios, thermal metrics, and various price-based models generally suggest “room to grow,” although at least one—LTH Inflation Rate—raises a note of caution. Some composites are only partially triggered, while classic top signals such as Pi Cycle Top remain inactive. At press time, BTC traded at $96,037. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut and a revised policy indicating fewer cuts than anticipated next year. The announcement triggered a significant market retrace, with Bitcoin leading the downturn. BTC dropped 8% from its all-time high, briefly testing liquidity levels before bouncing above $98,000. This retrace wasn’t limited to […]
Bitcoin experienced extreme volatility yesterday after reaching a new all-time high of $104,088 on Wednesday. What followed was a textbook “Darth Maul” candle on the daily chart, as BTC plummeted from $103,550 to as low as $90,500 before stabilizing. While some observers initially read the move as a harsh rejection at the psychologically significant $100,000 level, leading analysts suggest this could represent a routine market flush-out rather than a cyclical peak. Could This Be The Bitcoin Cycle Top? Traders and analysts on X present a unified narrative: the abrupt spike and subsequent plunge were likely orchestrated by large players capitalizing on high-leverage traders. Veteran trader IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) stated, “Bitcoin – Classic Darth Maul. Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think we’ve seen an asset top with that kind of candle. Usually that’s the punish late longers, trap the shorters, and send it higher candle.” Another crypto analyst known as Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) added, “It’s just whales using the ‘rinse high leverage button.’ Before continuing whatever it was meant to do. I would want to see the downside of that wick cleared, but that could be it too.” Related Reading: Hut 8 Unveils $750 Million Initiative To Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, underscored the scale of these moves, noting: “An $11K ‘Darth Maul’ on the Bitcoin daily chart. Stops on both sides were run. Incredible intraday volatility in Bitcoin. Welcome to what it’s like for BTC to be $100K. $10,000 moves in a day are now a thing.” He followed up, “$100K Bitcoin is the new $10K,” sharing comparative charts from the 2020–2021 bull run and drawing parallels to the current price environment. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, reinforced this historical context: “Bitcoin. Yes, this is normal.” Edwards posted a similar chart, recalling the volatility when BTC was at $10,000 as well as $1,000 in early 2017. Key indicators also remain suggestive of further upside. According to Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, top signals are scarce at these levels. “Aside from funding rates, which can stay elevated for some time, very few of our ‘top signals’ indicators say the cycle is peaking. The path of least resistance is still higher, in my opinion.” Related Reading: Bitcoin On Track To Replace Gold In 10 Years, Trading Firm Predicts Sigel referenced four key metrics: the MVRV Z-Score (still below 5), the Bitcoin Price SMA Multiplier (indicating room for further growth), subdued Google Trends, and Crypto Market Dominance at a mid-range level. These data points collectively imply that the current cycle may not be approaching its apex. Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) delivered another perspective: “Being asked if that was the top so allow me to share my view. In my book the first levered flush out of a strong bull run, particularly one driven by strong fundamentals, does not mark the top.” He noted that while the move was widely anticipated in general terms—albeit not precisely timed—it does not alter the underlying strength of Bitcoin’s rally. Krüger added that the sudden retail pivot to older, “dino” altcoins might have signaled a local top for those assets, but not necessarily for Bitcoin: “Nothing really has changed imo. Would have liked to see funding also reset on alts. Alas, we can’t get it all.” At press time, BTC traded at $98,146. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has shattered all-time highs again, breaking the $100,000 barrier for the first time and surging to $103,620. This remarkable milestone marks a price level many thought impossible, solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a dominant force in global finance. The recent breakout comes with renewed enthusiasm, as market dynamics indicate Bitcoin’s rally may still have more […]
Bitcoin has experienced a record-breaking bullish breakout, shattering all-time highs almost daily over the past three weeks. After an impressive rally, the price is less than 2% away from the $100,000 mark—a critical psychological level that could become a turning point for the entire crypto market. Investors and analysts alike are closely watching this milestone, […]
The trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio may point towards a top being yet to occur in the current cycle. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hasn’t Yet Hit The Peaks Of Previous Cycles In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock discusses the historical trend of the Bitcoin MVRV […]
In the latest edition of Capriole Investments’ “Bitcoin Update,” Charles Edwards, founder and CEO, examines the current state of Bitcoin through a detailed analysis of thirteen on-chain indicators to address the critical question: Is the Bitcoin cycle top in? A month after a promising technical breakout above $65.5K, which briefly touched $70K, Bitcoin experienced a […]