After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe. End Of Bitcoin Bull Cycle Within Nine Days? On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days. He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a “textbook shakeout of weak hands,” a common pattern observed before market peaks. Related Reading: Tether Resolves Celsius Lawsuit With Major $300 Million Settlement Deal CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as “right on schedule.” He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days. The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge. However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSI’s position at 47 suggests a reset momentum. What On-Chain Metrics Suggest Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows. Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Holders Left In The Dark: Monad Protocol Faces Scrutiny Over MON Airdrop On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push. When examining October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month. In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analyst’s thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently reached a new weekly high above the $112,000 mark, signaling a potential new uptrend for the leading cryptocurrency. This movement may represent the final phase of the current cycle for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Market analyst CryptoBirb has indicated that this uptrend could last for approximately 50 more days, emphasizing that Bitcoin is now 95% through its cycle, which has spanned 1,017 days since the lows of November 2022. 50 Days Until Possible Bitcoin Peak Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after significant lows, suggesting a target timeframe for this cycle’s peak could fall between late October and mid-November 2025. The analysis highlights the typical relationship between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent price peaks. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have passed, with past data showing that price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days following such events. Related Reading: First US Dogecoin ETF Could Debut Next Week—How Will It Impact Price? As seen in the chart below, Bitcoin is currently 77% to 86% of the way through this timeline, entering what the analyst refers to as the “hot zone”—a period of heightened volatility and potential price movements. However, CryptoBirb cautions that historical trends indicate that after reaching a peak, Bitcoin typically experiences a significant decline, often dropping by 70% to 80% over a 370 to 410-day timeframe. This bearish phase is projected for approximately the first and second quarter of 2026, with a historical probability of a bear market in that year reaching 100%. Before this potential downturn, the analyst expects a final surge, with about 50 days remaining before the market may peak. September, often recognized as a weaker month for Bitcoin, has shown an average decline of 6.17%. Although third quarter statistics can be mixed, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average tends to reflect a decline due to larger losses. The typical seasonal pattern suggests that a poor September could be followed by stronger performance in October and November, with September 17 identified as a crucial date to watch by the analyst. Critical Support And Resistance Levels On the technical front, Key support levels are identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300. The daily chart reveals further technical insights, including a 200-day breakout point at $111,000 and a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has identified local support between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance sits at $113,000 to $114,100. Related Reading: XRP Price Could See 20% Bounce To $3.4 If This Trendline Holds Looking ahead, both short-term and long-term trading trailers are currently in a bearish mode. CryptoBirb asserts that if Bitcoin falls below the critical levels of $107,000 to $108,000, bearish sentiment could intensify, potentially leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%. Fortunately, cryptocurrency miners appear to be faring well, with the mining cost established at $95,400, suggesting a healthy market environment with minimal capitulation risk. Lastly, the analyst cautions against the potential for a market peak leading into the altcoin season in October and November. CryptoBirb suggests to mark calendars for October 22, as it could be a pivotal date in Bitcoin’s cycle. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,886, down nearly 11% from all-time high levels. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
In a thread on X, business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains where the global economy currently stands and what that means for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Describing what he terms a “short and shallow” full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025, Tomas believes this fleeting cycle was masked in part by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar. He explains, “The general gist of the theory was that we saw an abnormal, ‘short and shallow’ full business cycle over recent years that suppressed traditional PMI measures both in the US and globally.” According to Tomas, his analysis relies on four real-time measures of the global economy, which he tracked in inverted trade-weighted dollar index, Baltic Dry Index, 10-year Chinese Government bond yields, and the copper/gold ratio. By converting these individual data points into rolling yearly z-scores, he created an “equal-weighted composite z-score” he calls the Global Economy Index (GEI). He notes, “You can see clearly here that the GEI was underwhelming to the upside in 2023 and 2024 (didn’t reach the ‘business cycle peaking zone’). And then fell to levels typically correlated with the end of a business cycle in late 2024/early 2025 (‘business cycle troughing zone’).” This composite measure appeared to lead US Manufacturing PMI data prior to the disruptive events of 2020, and Tomas highlights that relationship by shifting the GEI forward by six months. He observes a break in the pattern around the 2020 pandemic and the following large-scale central bank interventions, yet still sees the possibility that GEI’s recent rebound indicates a new “fresh” business cycle taking hold, potentially peaking around late 2026 or 2027. “Based on historical precedent,” he writes, “this new business cycle could reasonably be expected to peak around late 2026/2027.” He also addresses the interplay between GEI, equities, and PMIs, remarking that the stock market usually leads business survey measures but tends to lag the GEI. “If we peel back the layers of the onion, we find the stock market generally leads PMI measures but generally lags the GEI, so it lives somewhere in the middle, most of the time,” he says. He points out that the S&P 500 recently slipped into negative year-over-year territory, which he sees as typical of end-of-cycle price behavior. “The S&P 500 has now hit what would historically be an acceptable ‘end of business cycle bottoming level.’” The Implications For Bitcoin Bitcoin, however, remains the wildcard. Tomas acknowledges that the leading-lag relationship of the GEI, stock market, and PMIs might normally apply to most risk assets, yet this time around, Bitcoin appears to be deviating from its usual volatility in relation to the macro environment. “The piece of the jigsaw that doesn’t seem to fit at all (by historical precedent) is Bitcoin,” he writes. He acknowledges that it has so far resisted typical “end of business cycle” drawdowns, and he speculates on whether “Bitcoin has just grown up and become less volatile and less sensitive to business cycle swings — potentially due to ETFs and higher institutional interest.” Yet he also entertains the possibility that Bitcoin might simply be lagging the stock market. Regardless, “if Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle,” Tomas warns, “this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action.” Tomas concludes by cautioning that if the global economy index fails to maintain its recent bounce and instead rolls over to a new low, the outlook could turn more bearish, especially if so-called tariff headwinds worsen. He speculates that part of the rebound seen in copper/gold and shipping rates in early 2025 may have been frontloaded by tariff announcements, hinting that the recovery in those metrics might not be as robust as it appears on the surface. Still, the key takeaway from his perspective is that equities and the broader business cycle appear to be in late-stage territory, and if his assessment holds, a new cycle could begin soon — one that runs long enough to postpone any meaningful Bitcoin peak until late 2026 or even 2027, calling into question any assumptions about the enduring validity of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. “Another point to note is that the GEI is currently signaling the start of a new business cycle, which could reasonably be expected to peak in late 2026/2027. If Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle, this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action,” Tomas concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $79,428. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has proven unstoppable, breaking all-time highs five times in six days and surging past the $82,000 mark. This latest milestone cements Bitcoin’s momentum as it pushes into uncharted territory, capturing the bulls’ attention and sparking new levels of optimism in the market. According to recent data from CryptoQuant, the number of bullish investors is growing rapidly, yet there’s reason to believe Bitcoin’s rally is far from over. Related Reading: Ethereum Analyst Sees Altseason Potential As BTS Is Still Outpacing ETH – Time To Buy Altcoins? CryptoQuant’s insights indicate that BTC remains significantly below its March 2024 peak in several key metrics, which suggests that Bitcoin may still have room to climb within this cycle. This gap highlights that, despite the impressive gains, Bitcoin could still be building toward a true cycle peak, with potential gains yet to be realized. As investor sentiment strengthens and Bitcoin shows resilience at each new level, the market watches closely for signs of continued upward momentum. The next few days will be crucial in determining just how far Bitcoin can go as it solidifies its place in the next phase of this bull run. Bitcoin Bulls Enter The Room Bitcoin bulls have returned after eight months of sideways consolidation and significant selling pressure. With Bitcoin now trading 11% above its previous all-time high from March, market sentiment has turned decisively bullish, marking the start of a new trend. According to data from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, the number of bullish investors in the market is steadily rising, signaling growing confidence. However, despite this uptick, the current rally lacks the frenzied demand seen during the March 2024 rally, when both retail and institutional interest reached euphoric levels. Adler’s data indicates that while bulls have a strong foothold in the market, the pace of accumulation by new retail and institutional participants is still relatively modest. This gap between the current market dynamics and those seen in March suggests that Bitcoin’s latest surge may be just the beginning rather than the end of its upward trajectory in this cycle. Related Reading: Cardano Skyrockets Over 40% – Funding Rate Suggests Further Upside The slower but steady rise in buying interest could indicate that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of this bullish phase, with room for further growth before reaching a cycle peak. For investors, this could present a promising opportunity. The subdued retail and institutional excitement level suggests that Bitcoin has yet to capture mainstream attention as it did during previous peaks. If demand rises gradually, Bitcoin may experience sustained growth over the coming months, potentially reaching new highs as momentum builds. BTC Setting New High Bitcoin recently set a new all-time high above $82,000, which many investors previously viewed as a likely local top. However, BTC’s price action remains robust, and it may be too soon to call for a definitive peak. Despite this upward momentum, a potential pullback to $77,000 could be on the horizon, as there is an unfilled gap in the CME futures market between $77,000 and $81,000—a technical level that often attracts price action as traders look to close the gap. This week will likely bring significant volatility as bulls control the market. With Bitcoin in uncharted territory, some investors may seize the opportunity to lock in profits, which could introduce selling pressure. Related Reading: Avalanche Nears Breakout – Top Analyst Sets $420 Target For AVAX This Cycle Nonetheless, the dominant trend is bullish, and a brief correction to $77,000 could provide a foundation for further upside. Bitcoin’s strength remains intact for now, but all eyes will be on how it responds to the volatility and whether it can maintain this high range or dip slightly before resuming its climb. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The current Bitcoin price behavior and its deviations from expected cyclical patterns remain a central theme of analysis. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) recently shared new insights on X concerning Bitcoin’s potential peak during the ongoing bull run, which is progressing at an atypical pace compared to historical data. When Will Bitcoin Peak This Cycle? In a detailed post, Rekt Capital pointed out that as of mid-March 2024, Bitcoin had not only reached new all-time highs but had done so approximately 260 days ahead of its traditional halving-induced cycles. This marked a significant acceleration. “When Bitcoin rallied to new All Time Highs in mid-March 2024, Bitcoin was accelerating in its cycle by 260 days compared to traditional Halving Cycles,” stated Rekt Capital. However, this rapid pace has not been sustained. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been in a phase of consolidation, which has altered its trajectory. The acceleration advantage has decreased to about 210 days compared to previous cycles. This deceleration is a critical factor, as it could lead to a re-synchronization with the typical halving cycle. Typically, BTC peaks 518-546 days after a halving event. Related Reading: Bitcoin Relative Strength Jumps To 40%: 10x Research Reveals Next Steps From Here The analyst suggests shifting the predictive focus from just halving events to the periods after Bitcoin surpasses its previous all-time highs. Historically, BTC price tends to reach a bull market top within 266 to 315 days after breaking these thresholds. Given that this milestone was achieved again in mid-March 2024, the projected window for the next bull market peak could be set between late November 2024 and late January 2025. Nevertheless, a notable trend is the increasing duration for which Bitcoin maintains levels beyond its old highs. In 2013, this period lasted 268 days, in 2017 it extended to 280 days, and by 2021, it had increased to 315 days. This pattern suggests an incremental extension of approximately 14 to 35 days per cycle. “Historically, the amount of days that Bitcoin has spent beyond old All Time Highs has increased by approximately 14 days to 35 days,” explained Rekt Capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom In? Retracement From $73,800 Is Deeper And Took Longer To Form Adding these increments to the initial range of 266 to 315 days post-old highs, the peak could potentially extend to between 280 and 350 days post-breakout. This adjustment shifts the expected peak time frame to between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025. Potential Synchronization With Halving Cycles Despite the current accelerated cycle, there remains a possibility that further deceleration could align Bitcoin more closely with its halving cycle. In past cycles, such as those between 2015-2017 and 2019-2021, Bitcoin peaked at 518 and 546 days post-halving, respectively. If Bitcoin’s rate of acceleration continues to decrease, the cycle may eventually resynchronize, potentially delaying the peak to between mid-September and mid-October 2025. Rekt Capital elaborates, “But if Bitcoin continues to reduce its current acceleration in the cycle, it would resynchronize with traditional Halving cycles.” This could result in a peak more aligned with historical patterns, diverging from the current accelerated timeline. At press time, BTC traded at $64,262. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com