As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a key resistance area, an analyst has suggested that the end of BTC’s two-month consolidation could be weeks away, potentially opening “generational opportunities” before the next bull run. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Could Keep Crashing This Week Bitcoin Consolidation’s End May Be Weeks Away On Monday, Bitcoin jumped 5% from Sunday’s lows to a key area for the first time in April. Notably, the flagship cryptocurrency has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 over the past two months but has not reached the upper end of its range since late March. Now, BTC is retesting the $69,000-$70,000 resistance area, which could set the stage for a crucial short-term move. Market observer Ted Pillows stated that if the cryptocurrency reclaims this zone, a rally towards $72,000-$74,000 could happen. On the contrary, a rejection would likely see Bitcoin drop to the $65,000-$66,000 support zone, where price has held over the past month. In an X analysis, Ali Martinez noted that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows the flagship cryptocurrency is “stuck in a ‘No-Trade Zone.’” Per the post, “the URPD shows exactly where every BTC last moved,” with a massive cluster of holders between $70,685-$63,111. “As long as we trade here, millions of holders are incentivized to defend their ‘buy-in,’ creating a natural floor,” he added. Nonetheless, analyst Max Crypto affirmed that BTC’s “decision time is very close,” suggesting that it could see its next big move unfold in the upcoming weeks, based on its previous price action. As he explained, the leading crypto has shown the same performance over the past year, consolidating for 8-15 weeks before the last four big moves. This time, Bitcoin has been moving sideways for 8 weeks, entering its 9th consolidation week on Monday. Based on its previous performance, the market watcher considers that “BTC’s next big move will most likely happen by mid-April, irrespective of US-Iran talks, and will probably be to the downside.” Where Is BTC’s Final Support Located? In his X post, Martinez also analyzed multiple patterns and on-chain metrics to map out BTC’s high-probability accumulation zones and potential bottom. Notably, he highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching its most significant support floor since 2017: an ascending trendline that has guarded its price for nine years, and every retest has preceded a parabolic expansion. This trendline currently sits around the $60,000 and $56,000 levels and could be “the potential launchpad for the next major bull cycle” if it holds. In addition, he outlined three metrics that could mark the “line in the sand” and the best buying opportunities for BTC: the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), the MVRV pricing bands, and the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 85% Crash Era Is Over: ‘It’s Now A Proven Technology’, Cathie Wood Says The CVDD, which “tracks when ‘Old Hands’ pass BTC to new buyers, creating a structural foundation for the entire market,” is currently around $47,960. Meanwhile, the MVRV 0.8 Band, located around $43,647, has historically marked the bottom and “the exact zone where BTC sellers exhaust themselves and the ‘Strong Hands’ take over the supply.” Lastly, Martinez noted that the LTH Realized Price, currently at $49,387, is often the final support. However, he added that if the price dips below this level, “it signals a final capitulation phase, especially if the -0.2 Std Dev band at $36,657 is hit” at what he deemed “Generational Buy” levels. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Analyst Willy Woo has highlighted how some old-school Bitcoin on-chain models could suggest a bottoming zone for the asset in the current cycle. Bitcoin Bottomed Between Realized Price & CVDD In Past Bear Markets In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has talked about where the Bitcoin bottom could lie according to two on-chain models. The models in question are the Realized Price and CVDD. Related Reading: KPMG, PwC Involved In Tether’s First-Ever Audit: Report First, the “Realized Price” keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition value of the average token part of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply. Whenever the spot price is above this metric, the investors as a whole could be assumed to be in a state of net unrealized profit. Similarly, the asset being below the level can imply the dominance of loss on the blockchain. As shown in the chart shared by Woo, the Bitcoin Realized Price has been sliding down recently, meaning that average investor cost basis has been declining. In other words, the average capital invested per holder is down, so some net capital could be considered to have left the cryptocurrency. Following the drawdown in the Realized Price since November, its value has dropped to around $54,200. So far in the latest bearish market phase, Bitcoin has yet to retest this level. From the chart, it’s visible that past bear markets found their bottoms when BTC was below the indicator. Interestingly, the other model in the chart, the CVDD, served as a sort of lower bound across these cycles, with BTC never dipping below it. The CVDD, standing for Cumulative Value Days Destroyed, is an indicator created by Woo that derives from the popular Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric. A “coin day” is a quantity that 1 BTC accumulates after being dormant on the blockchain for 1 day. When a token dormant for some number of days is moved, its coin days reset back to zero and are said to be destroyed. The CDD measures the number of coin days being reset across the network in this manner. The CVDD goes a step further and attaches a USD value to each of these coin days, based on the BTC price at the time, and takes their cumulative sum. Additionally, it applies a normalization factor by taking the sum’s ratio with the total age of the market (in days). Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Loss Hits 15% Of Market Cap—Still Below FTX Capitulation Levels Today, the Bitcoin CVDD is sitting at $45,500. If the pattern from the last few cycles is anything to go by, it’s possible that BTC could find a bottom somewhere between this level and the Realized Price at $54,200. That said, the analyst also added a caution, noting: Models use past behaviour… there’s only been 4 prior bear markets and they have been inside a secular bull market in risk equities. If that foundation collapses, we will be in uncharted territory (deeper bear). BTC Price Bitcoin has again failed to maintain its recovery as its price has slipped to the $67,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Following its price crash in early February, Bitcoin continues to exhibit significant volatility, with prices fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000. Last week, the leading cryptocurrency saw a sharp rebound towards the 74,000 price level, but was soon followed by a deep retracement to around $68,000. Amid this choppy price movement and lack of market direction, on-chain data has revealed a tranquil behavior among the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH). Related Reading: Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash CVDD Data Shows Bitcoin LTH Composure Amid Market Uncertainty Bitcoin long-term holders represent entities or addresses with holdings that have lasted over 155 days. Due to the prolonged holding periods, LTHs are considered more strategic investors than short-term holders, making investment decisions from convictions rather than reacting to price movements. In a QuickTake post on March 7, prominent analyst Darkfost reports that the Bitcoin long-term holders are maintaining a calm market activity amid a flurry of reactions by other investors’ cohorts. This observation was based on data from the Bitcoin Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric. Generally, the Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) measures how long coins were held before they moved. The CVDD adds a value component to this metric, thereby evaluating the economic value that comes from old coins entering the market. Therefore, CVDD is a key metric in observing long-term holders’ activity and their impact on the market. According to data from CryptoQuant, Darkfost states that the present CVDD stands around 0.34, a value that is similar to levels recorded during a bear market. This suggests that Bitcoin long-term holders are largely inactive and are opting to hold their assets rather than initiate a redistribution. Meanwhile, high redistribution activity has been recorded when the CVDD rises above 2.0, a value that was also observed during market top formations in the present cycle. Related Reading: Ethereum Rising Wedge Warning: Breakdown Could Send Price Toward $1,500 Bitcoin Price Overview According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin trades at $67,289, following a minor 0.8% decline in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 46.65% and valued at $23.67 billion. More data from CoinCodex reveals the market remains on high caution as the Fear & Greed index stands at 12, representing extreme greed. General market sentiment is bearish, especially considering that only 12 of the last 30 days have ended on a green note. However, CoinCodex analysts remain somewhat optimistic, predicting a rise to $73,842 in five days and $76,640 in a month. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery attempts and lingering macro uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a transitional state, as it leaves euphoric expansion but is not yet fully in capitulation. Ultimately, current price action reflects a tug of war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. Nonetheless, on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency is likely to embark on more trips to the downside. CVDD: Bitcoin’s Compass to Cycle Lows Since 2012 In a recent post on the X platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has identified Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. According to the crypto pundit, the metric is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225. Related Reading: BNB Chain Expands With $1B Fund Access While BNB Price Nears Critical Support Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify major market bottoms by analyzing the behaviour of long-term holders. To understand CVDD, one needs to recognize the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). CDD is every Bitcoin accumulated that remains unmoved in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the cumulative historical value of destroyed coin days and adjusts it into a valuation model to produce a price level that historically aligns with the major Bitcoin cycle bottom. Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price bottoms with remarkable accuracy. The model essentially measures when older, long–held coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle tops and accumulate during deep bear phases. Is Bitcoin Sitting On A Hidden Safety Net? Over time, CVDD has acted as a floor beneath price during severe drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 sell-off, the Bitcoin price often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before staging long-term recoveries. Currently, CVDD sits at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. It does not necessarily imply that price must fall to this level, but rather that it serves as a historically significant structural support if broader market conditions further deteriorate. When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD, it typically signals that the market remains in a healthier macro position. Meanwhile, when the Bitcoin price compresses towards it, sentiment often becomes pessimistic, and long-term accumulation tends to intensify. As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it might be helpful to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the $45,225 CVDD level. A decisive move toward it could signal deeper corrective pressure, while sustained strength above it reinforces the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact. As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of nearly 2% in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView