The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted the $97,000 to $98,000 zone as an important one for Bitcoin. Here’s why. Bitcoin CBD Suggests Build Up Of Supply In This Range In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about a potentially significant zone for Bitcoin based on the Cost Basis Distribution. The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) is an indicator that measures the amount of the BTC supply that investors last purchased or transferred at the various price levels. As is visible in the above graph, there is a dense supply zone located between $97,000 to $98,000. Generally, investors are quite sensitive to retests of their cost basis, so a large amount of them (or alternatively, a few large holders) having their acquisition level inside a narrow range could make retests of it significant for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin STHs Capitulate: 14,700 BTC Moved To Exchanges At Loss When the mood in the market is bullish, holders can react to retests of their cost basis from above by buying more. They may do so believing that the same level would end up proving profitable again in the future and the retrace is just a ‘dip.’ The cryptocurrency suffered a plunge yesterday and nearly touched this region. Since then, however, things have turned around for the asset and it has gained some distance over it once more. In the event that the decline does continue, which may not be too unexpected given the volatile geopolitical situation at the moment, the zone could end up acting as the next true pivot for Bitcoin, according to the analytics firm. While the CBD tells us where the cryptocurrency’s supply is concentrated, it doesn’t contain any information about who bought or sold at those price levels. Glassnode’s behavioral cohorts, investor groups divided on the basis of their behavior, solve this problem. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin supply held by these holder cohorts over the past few years: There are five of these behavior groups. First Buyers (green) include the investors who are buying Bitcoin for the very first time. As displayed in the chart, the supply of this group has been on the rise, indicating fresh demand has been coming in. Momentum Buyers (blue) are those that capitalize on market momentum by buying during uptrends. On the opposite spectrum are the Conviction Buyers (purple), who buy despite falling prices. Finally, there are the Loss Sellers (red) and Profit Takers (yellow), who correspond to investors exiting at a loss and profit, respectively. During the past couple of weeks, the former cohort has seen an increase of 29%, a sign that weak hands have been capitulating. Related Reading: Consolidation Takes Its Toll: Bitcoin Investors No Longer Greedy That said, the analytics firm has noted, “Conviction Buyers also increased, suggesting sentiment isn’t collapsing. Some are cutting losses – others are actively lowering their cost basis.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,900, down more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
After two weeks of strong action, the Bitcoin price seems to be back on the right track, and the bull run — which once looked done and dusted — appears to be roaring back to life. This previously improbable recovery is now accentuated by the premier cryptocurrency’s likely return to above the important $100,000 level. However, the Bitcoin price appears to have its hands full in its quest for a six-figure valuation in the near future. The latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader’s price is currently wedged within a significant range, which could determine its movement over the next few weeks. ‘Pretty Much Blue Skies Above $100’ For BTC – Analyst In his recent post on the X platform, prominent crypto analyst Checkmate shared an interesting on-chain insight, saying that the Bitcoin price is “working its way” through the $93,000 and $100,000. This on-chain observation is based on the supply distribution heatmap, which shows the concentration of coins acquired at different price ranges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Warming Up: Analyst Maps 3 Scenarios That Could Trigger the Next Big Rally The deep red shades on the distribution heatmap represent high volumes of coin activity, indicating that large clusters of investors have their cost bases in this price range. These cost bases clusters act as psychological and technical resistance zones, as investors are likely to sell when prices return to their purchase prices. As shown in the chart above, there is a significant supply barrier for the Bitcoin price in the $93,000 – $100,000 region. This suggests that the premier cryptocurrency faces significant potential selling pressure due to investors looking to break even after being in the red for so long. Interestingly, the distribution heatmap shared by Checkmate shows that beyond the $100,000 threshold, the Bitcoin supply significantly declines. This suggests low historical buying activity (lower coin amounts being held) above this price level, meaning relatively less significant resistance. Ultimately, a breach above the $100,000 mark could be the beginning of a strong upward rally for Bitcoin price, as Checkmate noted that “blue skies” is what lies beyond the psychological price level. However, failure to break out of the $93,000 – $100,000 region could result in another extended consolidation period. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $96,680, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by more than 2% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Ethereum ‘Running Out Of Time’? Analyst Says New ATH May Not Come This Cycle Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Recent positive price action has propelled Bitcoin (BTC) above the short-term holders’ realized price of $91,000. This development has prompted some crypto analysts to question whether BTC’s newfound strength is sustainable – or merely a bull trap ahead of a major pullback. Is Bitcoin About To Rally Or Will It Double Top? US President Donald Trump’s recent statement that tariffs on China will be “substantially” lower than the proposed 145% provided a boost to risk-on assets. Both equity and crypto markets responded positively, with BTC up 5.6% over the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Ahead? Analysts Say These Key Indicators Look Bullish Bitcoin is currently trading in the low $90,000s for the first time since March, renewing hopes for an extended rally that could push it past the $100,000 mark. However, CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain urges caution. In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the on-chain analyst provided insights into the behavior of the 1–3 month holder cohort. This group typically enters the market during bullish phases and tends to hold their BTC through price corrections. The analyst shared the following chart, illustrating how these short-term participants often transition into the 3–6 month holding category – highlighted with a yellow arrow – during extended drawdowns. Conversely, during strong rallies – highlighted with a green arrow – this group tends to take profits by selling to new market entrants. As the market nears the final stages of a rally – highlighted with a red circle – this cohort usually grows significantly in size. When a drawdown begins, these short-term holders often exit the market as prices approach their realized cost basis. Avocado_onchain also shared another chart showing how the peaks of previous BTC halving cycles have consistently surpassed the average realized price of 1–3 month holders. Further, the analyst warned that the current market cycle may mirror the double top formation witnessed in 2021. They added: When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, it significantly exceeded this realized price level, suggesting that may have been the first top of a potential double top formation. Hence, rather than chasing the rally, it may be wiser for current holders to adopt a more cautious approach. Macro Headwinds Could Derail BTC Momentum The analyst further cautioned that limited market liquidity and macroeconomic factors – such as US-China tariff tensions – could weigh heavily on risk-on assets like BTC. That said, market sentiment can shift rapidly, and the entry of fresh liquidity could reignite a full-scale bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Following Gold’s Footsteps? Analyst Sets Mid-Term Target At $155,000 Meanwhile, crypto analyst Xanrox recently warned that BTC’s breakout from a falling wedge pattern may be a whale-driven trap designed to lure retail investors before another leg down. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $93,754, up 5.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and Tradingview.com
A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here’s how far the asset’s price is currently from this line. Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price is above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of profit, while it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss. Related Reading: Why Litecoin Won’t Break Out—Analytics Firm Reveals the Cause Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju, which shows the trend in its value for four Bitcoin cohorts: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin is above the Realized Price of all of these groups right now, so their members would all be sitting on some unrealized gains. Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the Realized Price of the New Whales (colored in orange). The New Whales, also called the Short-Term Holder Whales, refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price currently stands at $89,300 for this cohort, which means BTC could be at risk of retesting it in the near future if the bearish trajectory continues. A potential dip under the level, though, wouldn’t immediately signal a shift towards a bear market; it would only imply a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green). The Miner Whales refer to the wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant founder has explained that BTC’s plunges under the mark during the last couple of cycles have all led to bear markets. At present, the Realized Price of the Miner Whales is situated at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to go through a drawdown of almost 40% in order to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now. Related Reading: Glassnode Reveals Where Bitcoin Could Find Support If Current Level Breaks Down While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales. These whales, who have been resolutely holding Bitcoin since more than 155 days ago, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now. BTC Price Bitcoin witnessed a plunge under the $94,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the coin has already found a rebound as its price is now back at $96,200. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has had a whirlwind few days, hitting an all-time high (ATH) last Tuesday before tumbling into a sharp 15% correction. This period of heightened volatility has left investors divided, with some expecting a continued uptrend while others brace for more downside. The market is closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its bullish momentum. Related Reading: XRP Whales Loading Up – Data Reveals Buying Activity Top analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted critical data from the Bitcoin cost basis distribution, pointing to $97K as a crucial support level. Martinez stresses that holding this level is essential for BTC to maintain its uptrend and fend off deeper corrections. However, Bitcoin’s price action remains uncertain as it struggles to break through the psychological barrier at $100K. While many investors see the recent correction as a healthy reset after BTC’s meteoric rise, the failure to push higher could signal a more prolonged consolidation phase. With Bitcoin trading near pivotal levels, the coming days will be critical in determining whether it will resume its climb to new highs or face additional headwinds. Bitcoin Holding Above Key Demand Bitcoin is holding steady above a critical demand level around $97,000, offering a beacon of hope for bulls after recent volatility. This stability follows a brief test of lower demand at $92,000, which reinforced the market’s ability to absorb selling pressure. While the short-term recovery is encouraging, the price remains at a pivotal point that could determine its trajectory heading into the new year. Martinez recently shared insights from the Bitcoin cost basis distribution, emphasizing the importance of the $99,000–$97,000 range. His data highlights this zone as the most significant support threshold for Bitcoin, acting as a critical line in the sand for the current uptrend. However, Martinez warns of the potential downside risk if Bitcoin fails to hold this range: “We really don’t want this level to become resistance.” As Bitcoin consolidates near these key levels, sentiment across the market remains indecisive. Bulls are eager to see BTC reclaim momentum and push toward all-time highs, but the psychological resistance around $100,000 continues to loom large. Meanwhile, bears argue that the recent pullback could be a sign of an impending larger correction. Related Reading: On-Chain Metrics Reveal Cardano Whales Are ‘Buying The Dip’ – Details The coming days will be crucial as the year draws to a close. With market participants looking for clarity, Bitcoin must hold this critical support zone or risk losing its bullish structure. Whether the next major move is up or down will depend heavily on how BTC reacts within this price range. BTC Testing Liquidity Bitcoin is trading at $97,000, showing resilience after rebounding from local lows of $92,000. This bounce highlights the market’s strong demand at lower levels, reinforcing the bullish narrative for now. The price structure remains intact above $97,000, indicating that BTC is well-positioned to stage another rally toward its ATH. However, the $100,000 psychological barrier looms large as the next major hurdle for bulls. This level has proven difficult to overcome, with previous attempts falling short. A successful breakout above $100,000 in the coming days would likely reignite bullish momentum and set the stage for Bitcoin to reach new ATHs, restoring confidence among investors and traders. Related Reading: BTC Realized Losses Spike 3 Times The Weekly Average – Healthy Correction Or Downturn? On the flip side, failure to breach this critical resistance could trigger a less favorable scenario. If Bitcoin struggles to gain traction above $100,000, market sentiment may waver, leading to increased selling pressure. In such a case, BTC could face another downturn, testing key support levels once again. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has gone through a major crash recently, but has the asset yet breached the historical bear market boundary? Here’s what on-chain data says. Bitcoin Is Currently Under Realized Price Of New Whales In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed what the Realized Price of different key groups in the Bitcoin market is looking like right now. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Lowest Since FTX Crash, Signal To Buy The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition price that the investors of a given group currently share. When the asset’s spot price is above this metric, it means the cohort as a whole can be considered to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the average group member is holding a net loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for some major cohorts on the Bitcoin network: The first Bitcoin cohort listed here is the “New Whales,” which include the large investors (more than 1,000 BTC in holdings) who bought their coins within the past 155 days. The likes of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other custody wallets would be included in this category. This group currently has a Realized Price of $65,000, meaning that these whales would be in notable losses after the latest cryptocurrency crash. The next group, the Binance Traders, has a cost basis of $55,000, around where the asset’s spot price is trading. Thus, these investors would currently be just breaking even on their investments. Bitcoin still holds a distance above the Realized Price of the third group, the Miner Whales, at $45,000. As the CryptoQuant founder has pointed out, BTC dipping below this level has historically confirmed a bear market for the coin. From the chart, it’s visible that the asset last saw major breaches of the level back in November 2018 and May 2022. It also saw a temporary break during the COVID crash in March 2020. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Cross $1 Billion As Bitcoin Crashes To $51,000 As the latest crash has been unable to take Bitcoin below this cost basis of the mining companies, it’s possible that a transition towards a bear market hasn’t happened yet. The last cohort in the chart is the Long-Term Holder Whales, which includes the whales that have been holding for more than 155 days. The Realized Price of this group has never been breached in the coin’s entire history and currently trades around $22,000. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has gone up 7% to reclaim the $55,000 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin is back above the cost basis of the short-term holders, a sign that can be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Is Back Above The Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC has reclaimed the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors in the Bitcoin market. When the value of this metric is greater than the cryptocurrency’s spot price, the average holder in the sector can be assumed to be carrying some unrealized profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under the BTC price implies the dominance of losses in the market. Related Reading: XRP Surges 39% As Sharks & Whales Push Supply Share Past 85% In the context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire userbase isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their tokens within the past 155 days. This cohort makes up one of the two main divisions of the BTC sector based on holding time, with the other part of the market being known as the long-term holders (LTHs). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price specifically for this cohort over the past year: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price had plunged under the Realized Price of the STHs last month, meaning that this group had gone into a state of net loss. After spending some time below the line, though, the cryptocurrency has risen above the metric with the latest rally, thus bringing this cohort back into profit. “This is usually a very bullish sign,” notes Maartunn. The chart shows that the last time the asset broke back above this level after an extended stay below it was last October. This surge back above the line kicked off a run that would eventually result in the coin setting a new all-time high (ATH). As for why BTC breaking above the STH Realized Price has historically been something bullish, the answer lies in investor psychology. The STHs, who are relatively inexperienced hands, can be sensitive to price movements. More specifically, they are likely to show a reaction when their average cost basis undergoes a retest. When these investors are bearish, they may decide to sell when the price rises to their cost basis, as they may worry that the surge won’t last. Similarly, they react by accumulating further instead during bullish periods, as they could see their cost basis as a profitable point for buying more. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Suggests BTC Oversold As BTC has been able to surge past this line recently, it wouldn’t appear that the STHs are offering resistance right now, and thus, a bullish sentiment is still dominant among them. BTC Price Bitcoin had recovered above $66,000 yesterday, but the coin has since seen some pullback as its price is now down to $64,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is trading near a level that has historically acted as the boundary for the ‘euphoria’ phase of the market. Bitcoin Is Not Far From This Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Level According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC’s recent consolidation has been near the historical boundary between the ‘equilibrium’ and ‘euphoria’ phases of the bull market. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Tied To BitMEX Whales: Quant Uncovers Link The level in question multiplies the Realized Price for the long-term holders. The Realized Price here refers to an on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors on the Bitcoin network. When the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this indicator, the investors can be assumed to be holding a net amount of unrealized profit. Similarly, the asset’s value under the metric could suggest the dominance of losses on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price, specifically for the “long-term holders” (LTH), is of interest. The LTHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who have held onto their coins for more than 155 days without having sold/transferred them on the network. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the LTHs, as well as a couple of its multiples, over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Realized Price is trading around $21,800 right now. This is significantly lower than the current spot price of the asset, so this cohort would be holding considerable profits currently. Statistically, the longer an investor holds their BTC stack, the less likely they become to sell the coins at any point. As such, the LTHs, who tend to hold for long periods, include the most resolute holders in the market. This group doesn’t react easily to market events, like rallies or crashes. That said, when their gains grow very large, even these HODLers start getting tempted by the allure of profit-taking. Historically, this has happened as the Bitcoin market has approached the ‘euphoria’ phase. Glassnode defines it as that market phase when the price breaks above the 3.5x multiplier of the LTH Realized Price. This level currently stands at $76,400, just above the consolidation range the cryptocurrency has recently been stuck in. The chart shows that during the past two bull runs, the asset’s price blew up when it broke past this level. Related Reading: This Historical Ethereum Top Signal Is Yet To Appear This Cycle It remains to be seen how long Bitcoin takes to breach this boundary to escape from the current ‘equilibrium’ phase and fill investors with euphoria. BTC Price Bitcoin has declined toward the lower end of its consolidation range during the past few weeks, as its price is now trading around $61,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com