On-chain data shows Bitcoin is currently retesting a historically significant level that has often decided the course of the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Is Retesting The 0.85 Supply Quantile In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is retesting a level that has historically been a “make-or-break” one for the asset. Related Reading: Dogecoin Plunges To $0.18 As Whales Sell 440 Million DOGE The level in question is part of Glassnode’s “Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model.” The model reflects price levels corresponding to important investor profitability thresholds. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows how the levels of this model have changed over the last few years. Looks like BTC is currently trading around the middle band | Source: Glassnode on X As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin surged above the 0.95 quantile during the recent rally to the all-time high (ATH). This level corresponds to 95% of the supply being in profit. With the market downturn that has followed since, however, the cryptocurrency has slipped under the level. Recently, the asset has been making retests of the 0.85 quantile, situated at $109,000. BTC has already seen brief drops below this mark, but so far, it has managed to climb back above it each time. At present, the coin is trading right around the level, indicating that about 85% of the supply is carrying a net unrealized gain. In the past, Bitcoin’s interactions with this level have tended to carry consequences for its trajectory. “Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band,” noted Glassnode. The 0.75 quantile is equivalent to $98,000 at the moment. It now remains to be seen whether BTC can hold above the 0.85 quantile, or if a retrace to this level is coming. In some other news, the latest decline in Bitcoin below $107,000 came alongside negative values on the Coinbase Premium Gap, as pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post. The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). The metric basically tells us about how the behavior of the users on the former exchange differ from that of the latter platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin Struggles To Hold Key Support: Could $88,000 Be Next? As the below chart shows, the metric was at positive levels on Wednesday, but the indicator turned red on Thursday. The trend would imply that Coinbase traders, primarily made up of American institutional entities, sold the cryptocurrency at a higher intensity than Binance’s global whales during the Bitcoin drawdown. BTC Price Since the wave of selling on Coinbase, Bitcoin has witnessed some recovery back to the $109,500 level, reclaiming the 0.85 quantile once again. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed a Bitcoin price range that defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Shows Where Resistance & Support Are Strongest In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about where support and resistance levels lie for Bitcoin based on the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). This indicator basically tells us about the total amount of supply that last changed hands at the various price levels that the cryptocurrency has visited in its history. Related Reading: Solana Eyes $210 Before Its Next Major Move—Uptrend Or Fakeout Ahead? Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in this metric over the last few months. As is visible in the graph, the CBD highlights two levels for holding a dense amount of the cryptocurrency’s supply (shaded in red). The lower of these levels is situated near $111,000. A large chunk of buying at this mark occurred during the recent bearish phase in the asset. The other level is located around $117,000, made up of investors who bought during the price rally to the all-time high (ATH). Naturally, these buyers would be underwater right now, while those who purchased at $111,000 would be in profit. Generally, holders are sensitive to retests of their cost basis and can show some kind of reaction during one. Since these two levels host the cost basis of a significant amount of investors, it’s possible that when BTC will revisit them, some panic selling or buying will crop up. Which behavior would be dominant usually comes down to the market mood and the direction of the retest. When the retest occurs from above, investors may choose to buy more, believing the same cost basis level would result in profits again in the future. Similarly, holders who were in loss prior to the retest can react by selling, fearing that the asset will drop again in the future. Considering these effects, the $111,000 may be considered a key support cushion for Bitcoin, while $117,000 a resistance barrier. “This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Returns To Neutral As BTC Breaks $115,000 It now remains to be seen which level BTC will visit next and how its retest will go. “A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move,” explained the analytics firm. In some other news, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator has been sitting at cycle lows recently, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. This oscillator is based on the SSR, which compares the Bitcoin circulating supply against the supply of the stablecoins. The SSR Oscillator is sitting at a low level at the moment, which indicates that the BTC supply is low compared to stablecoin liquidity. “Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns,” said the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin saw a retrace toward $113,500 earlier, but the coin has been quick to bounce back as its price has returned to $115,400. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has been on an interesting trajectory over the past few weeks, setting new all-time highs along the way. More recently, the premier cryptocurrency surged to a new all-time high above the $124,100 mark. The Bitcoin price has since succumbed to significant bearish pressure, hovering around the $118,000 region for most of the weekend. A prominent crypto trader on the social media platform X has identified levels that could be pivotal to the coin’s future trajectory. $117,500 And $114,500 Are Next Support Levels: Glassnode Data In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pinpointed two support levels that could prove crucial to the Bitcoin price’s movements over the next few days. This evaluation is based on the cost-basis distribution of the Bitcoin supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Under Pressure? Rising Exchange Inflows Signal Potential Supply Build-Up Martinez highlighted the cost basis distribution (CBD) metric, which looks at the average cost basis of the total Bitcoin supply within various price brackets. As observed in the chart below, the CBD metric utilizes a heatmap with fixed price bracket levels (on the vertical axis) over a specific period (on the horizontal axis). The CBD chart shows that there is a significant cluster of investor cost-basis distribution around the $117,500 and $114,500 Bitcoin price levels. This basically indicates the presence of several investors who likely purchased their coins around these price regions. According to data from Glassnode, 72,900 BTC and 56,201 BTC were acquired from around the $117,500 and $114,500 levels, respectively. Martinez earmarked these $117,500 and $114,500 levels as the next critical support zones for the market leader. These price regions could act as support cushions because investors—who have been in the green—are likely to defend their positions by buying more coins when the Bitcoin price returns to their cost bases; and this fresh buying activity could then help keep the price afloat. It is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin price could be at risk of a severe correction if it breaks beneath the $114,500 support, as no major price cushion seems to be in sight. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $117,600, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. This past-day action mirrors the current indecisiveness in the world’s largest market. According to CoinGecko data, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by a mere 0.7% in the last seven days. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Be Headed To New All-Time Highs Due To These Factors Featured image created by Dall-E, chart from TradingView
A new Glassnode report has revealed that $141,000 could end up being the next major resistance for Bitcoin, should its price break convincingly higher. Bitcoin Is Currently Trading Between These Two STH Pricing Bands In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis and some pricing bands derived from it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Ends On Coinbase: Temporary Pause Or Trend Shift? This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor part of the STH cohort. Formally, STHs are defined as investors who have been holding their coins for less than 155 days. This group is made up of the new entrants in the network and high-frequency traders. In other words, it represents the low-conviction side of the market. A cohort called the long-term holder (LTH) group (holding time greater than 155 days) corresponds to BTC’s HODLers. When the price of the cryptocurrency is trading above the STH Cost Basis, it means the STH cohort as a whole is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset’s value being under the metric suggests the dominance of loss among the cohort. Historically, the STH Cost Basis has served as an important boundary between local bullish and bearish trends. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows which side of it the asset is trading right now. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price broke through the STH Cost Basis earlier in the year and has since gained a notable amount of distance over it. At the current metric value of $105,400 and the latest BTC price, the STHs are sitting on a net gain of 11.5%. “To add statistical context, we can apply standard deviation bands around the STH cost basis,” explains the report. “These dynamic price zones help identify areas of trend exhaustion or breakout potential.” From the chart, it’s visible that BTC has found resistance at the +1 standard deviation (SD) band multiple times this cycle, with two rejections coming in the bullish push of the last few months alone. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? At present, this level lies at $125,100. “From a broader perspective, this suggests that Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $105K and $125K until a decisive breakout occurs,” notes Glassnode. What will happen once a breakout does occur? According to the analytics firm, the +2 SD level situated at $141,600 could become the next major area of resistance instead. At this level, STH profits would have ballooned significantly, raising the chances of mass selling occurring with the motive of profit-taking. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to consolidate inside its range recently as its price is still trading around $117,600. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted the $97,000 to $98,000 zone as an important one for Bitcoin. Here’s why. Bitcoin CBD Suggests Build Up Of Supply In This Range In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about a potentially significant zone for Bitcoin based on the Cost Basis Distribution. The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) is an indicator that measures the amount of the BTC supply that investors last purchased or transferred at the various price levels. As is visible in the above graph, there is a dense supply zone located between $97,000 to $98,000. Generally, investors are quite sensitive to retests of their cost basis, so a large amount of them (or alternatively, a few large holders) having their acquisition level inside a narrow range could make retests of it significant for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin STHs Capitulate: 14,700 BTC Moved To Exchanges At Loss When the mood in the market is bullish, holders can react to retests of their cost basis from above by buying more. They may do so believing that the same level would end up proving profitable again in the future and the retrace is just a ‘dip.’ The cryptocurrency suffered a plunge yesterday and nearly touched this region. Since then, however, things have turned around for the asset and it has gained some distance over it once more. In the event that the decline does continue, which may not be too unexpected given the volatile geopolitical situation at the moment, the zone could end up acting as the next true pivot for Bitcoin, according to the analytics firm. While the CBD tells us where the cryptocurrency’s supply is concentrated, it doesn’t contain any information about who bought or sold at those price levels. Glassnode’s behavioral cohorts, investor groups divided on the basis of their behavior, solve this problem. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin supply held by these holder cohorts over the past few years: There are five of these behavior groups. First Buyers (green) include the investors who are buying Bitcoin for the very first time. As displayed in the chart, the supply of this group has been on the rise, indicating fresh demand has been coming in. Momentum Buyers (blue) are those that capitalize on market momentum by buying during uptrends. On the opposite spectrum are the Conviction Buyers (purple), who buy despite falling prices. Finally, there are the Loss Sellers (red) and Profit Takers (yellow), who correspond to investors exiting at a loss and profit, respectively. During the past couple of weeks, the former cohort has seen an increase of 29%, a sign that weak hands have been capitulating. Related Reading: Consolidation Takes Its Toll: Bitcoin Investors No Longer Greedy That said, the analytics firm has noted, “Conviction Buyers also increased, suggesting sentiment isn’t collapsing. Some are cutting losses – others are actively lowering their cost basis.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,900, down more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
After two weeks of strong action, the Bitcoin price seems to be back on the right track, and the bull run — which once looked done and dusted — appears to be roaring back to life. This previously improbable recovery is now accentuated by the premier cryptocurrency’s likely return to above the important $100,000 level. However, the Bitcoin price appears to have its hands full in its quest for a six-figure valuation in the near future. The latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader’s price is currently wedged within a significant range, which could determine its movement over the next few weeks. ‘Pretty Much Blue Skies Above $100’ For BTC – Analyst In his recent post on the X platform, prominent crypto analyst Checkmate shared an interesting on-chain insight, saying that the Bitcoin price is “working its way” through the $93,000 and $100,000. This on-chain observation is based on the supply distribution heatmap, which shows the concentration of coins acquired at different price ranges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Warming Up: Analyst Maps 3 Scenarios That Could Trigger the Next Big Rally The deep red shades on the distribution heatmap represent high volumes of coin activity, indicating that large clusters of investors have their cost bases in this price range. These cost bases clusters act as psychological and technical resistance zones, as investors are likely to sell when prices return to their purchase prices. As shown in the chart above, there is a significant supply barrier for the Bitcoin price in the $93,000 – $100,000 region. This suggests that the premier cryptocurrency faces significant potential selling pressure due to investors looking to break even after being in the red for so long. Interestingly, the distribution heatmap shared by Checkmate shows that beyond the $100,000 threshold, the Bitcoin supply significantly declines. This suggests low historical buying activity (lower coin amounts being held) above this price level, meaning relatively less significant resistance. Ultimately, a breach above the $100,000 mark could be the beginning of a strong upward rally for Bitcoin price, as Checkmate noted that “blue skies” is what lies beyond the psychological price level. However, failure to break out of the $93,000 – $100,000 region could result in another extended consolidation period. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $96,680, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by more than 2% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Ethereum ‘Running Out Of Time’? Analyst Says New ATH May Not Come This Cycle Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Recent positive price action has propelled Bitcoin (BTC) above the short-term holders’ realized price of $91,000. This development has prompted some crypto analysts to question whether BTC’s newfound strength is sustainable – or merely a bull trap ahead of a major pullback. Is Bitcoin About To Rally Or Will It Double Top? US President Donald Trump’s recent statement that tariffs on China will be “substantially” lower than the proposed 145% provided a boost to risk-on assets. Both equity and crypto markets responded positively, with BTC up 5.6% over the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Ahead? Analysts Say These Key Indicators Look Bullish Bitcoin is currently trading in the low $90,000s for the first time since March, renewing hopes for an extended rally that could push it past the $100,000 mark. However, CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain urges caution. In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the on-chain analyst provided insights into the behavior of the 1–3 month holder cohort. This group typically enters the market during bullish phases and tends to hold their BTC through price corrections. The analyst shared the following chart, illustrating how these short-term participants often transition into the 3–6 month holding category – highlighted with a yellow arrow – during extended drawdowns. Conversely, during strong rallies – highlighted with a green arrow – this group tends to take profits by selling to new market entrants. As the market nears the final stages of a rally – highlighted with a red circle – this cohort usually grows significantly in size. When a drawdown begins, these short-term holders often exit the market as prices approach their realized cost basis. Avocado_onchain also shared another chart showing how the peaks of previous BTC halving cycles have consistently surpassed the average realized price of 1–3 month holders. Further, the analyst warned that the current market cycle may mirror the double top formation witnessed in 2021. They added: When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, it significantly exceeded this realized price level, suggesting that may have been the first top of a potential double top formation. Hence, rather than chasing the rally, it may be wiser for current holders to adopt a more cautious approach. Macro Headwinds Could Derail BTC Momentum The analyst further cautioned that limited market liquidity and macroeconomic factors – such as US-China tariff tensions – could weigh heavily on risk-on assets like BTC. That said, market sentiment can shift rapidly, and the entry of fresh liquidity could reignite a full-scale bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Following Gold’s Footsteps? Analyst Sets Mid-Term Target At $155,000 Meanwhile, crypto analyst Xanrox recently warned that BTC’s breakout from a falling wedge pattern may be a whale-driven trap designed to lure retail investors before another leg down. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $93,754, up 5.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and Tradingview.com
A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here’s how far the asset’s price is currently from this line. Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price is above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of profit, while it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss. Related Reading: Why Litecoin Won’t Break Out—Analytics Firm Reveals the Cause Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju, which shows the trend in its value for four Bitcoin cohorts: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin is above the Realized Price of all of these groups right now, so their members would all be sitting on some unrealized gains. Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the Realized Price of the New Whales (colored in orange). The New Whales, also called the Short-Term Holder Whales, refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price currently stands at $89,300 for this cohort, which means BTC could be at risk of retesting it in the near future if the bearish trajectory continues. A potential dip under the level, though, wouldn’t immediately signal a shift towards a bear market; it would only imply a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green). The Miner Whales refer to the wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant founder has explained that BTC’s plunges under the mark during the last couple of cycles have all led to bear markets. At present, the Realized Price of the Miner Whales is situated at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to go through a drawdown of almost 40% in order to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now. Related Reading: Glassnode Reveals Where Bitcoin Could Find Support If Current Level Breaks Down While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales. These whales, who have been resolutely holding Bitcoin since more than 155 days ago, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now. BTC Price Bitcoin witnessed a plunge under the $94,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the coin has already found a rebound as its price is now back at $96,200. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has had a whirlwind few days, hitting an all-time high (ATH) last Tuesday before tumbling into a sharp 15% correction. This period of heightened volatility has left investors divided, with some expecting a continued uptrend while others brace for more downside. The market is closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its bullish momentum. Related Reading: XRP Whales Loading Up – Data Reveals Buying Activity Top analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted critical data from the Bitcoin cost basis distribution, pointing to $97K as a crucial support level. Martinez stresses that holding this level is essential for BTC to maintain its uptrend and fend off deeper corrections. However, Bitcoin’s price action remains uncertain as it struggles to break through the psychological barrier at $100K. While many investors see the recent correction as a healthy reset after BTC’s meteoric rise, the failure to push higher could signal a more prolonged consolidation phase. With Bitcoin trading near pivotal levels, the coming days will be critical in determining whether it will resume its climb to new highs or face additional headwinds. Bitcoin Holding Above Key Demand Bitcoin is holding steady above a critical demand level around $97,000, offering a beacon of hope for bulls after recent volatility. This stability follows a brief test of lower demand at $92,000, which reinforced the market’s ability to absorb selling pressure. While the short-term recovery is encouraging, the price remains at a pivotal point that could determine its trajectory heading into the new year. Martinez recently shared insights from the Bitcoin cost basis distribution, emphasizing the importance of the $99,000–$97,000 range. His data highlights this zone as the most significant support threshold for Bitcoin, acting as a critical line in the sand for the current uptrend. However, Martinez warns of the potential downside risk if Bitcoin fails to hold this range: “We really don’t want this level to become resistance.” As Bitcoin consolidates near these key levels, sentiment across the market remains indecisive. Bulls are eager to see BTC reclaim momentum and push toward all-time highs, but the psychological resistance around $100,000 continues to loom large. Meanwhile, bears argue that the recent pullback could be a sign of an impending larger correction. Related Reading: On-Chain Metrics Reveal Cardano Whales Are ‘Buying The Dip’ – Details The coming days will be crucial as the year draws to a close. With market participants looking for clarity, Bitcoin must hold this critical support zone or risk losing its bullish structure. Whether the next major move is up or down will depend heavily on how BTC reacts within this price range. BTC Testing Liquidity Bitcoin is trading at $97,000, showing resilience after rebounding from local lows of $92,000. This bounce highlights the market’s strong demand at lower levels, reinforcing the bullish narrative for now. The price structure remains intact above $97,000, indicating that BTC is well-positioned to stage another rally toward its ATH. However, the $100,000 psychological barrier looms large as the next major hurdle for bulls. This level has proven difficult to overcome, with previous attempts falling short. A successful breakout above $100,000 in the coming days would likely reignite bullish momentum and set the stage for Bitcoin to reach new ATHs, restoring confidence among investors and traders. Related Reading: BTC Realized Losses Spike 3 Times The Weekly Average – Healthy Correction Or Downturn? On the flip side, failure to breach this critical resistance could trigger a less favorable scenario. If Bitcoin struggles to gain traction above $100,000, market sentiment may waver, leading to increased selling pressure. In such a case, BTC could face another downturn, testing key support levels once again. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has gone through a major crash recently, but has the asset yet breached the historical bear market boundary? Here’s what on-chain data says. Bitcoin Is Currently Under Realized Price Of New Whales In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed what the Realized Price of different key groups in the Bitcoin market is looking like right now. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Lowest Since FTX Crash, Signal To Buy The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition price that the investors of a given group currently share. When the asset’s spot price is above this metric, it means the cohort as a whole can be considered to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the average group member is holding a net loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for some major cohorts on the Bitcoin network: The first Bitcoin cohort listed here is the “New Whales,” which include the large investors (more than 1,000 BTC in holdings) who bought their coins within the past 155 days. The likes of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other custody wallets would be included in this category. This group currently has a Realized Price of $65,000, meaning that these whales would be in notable losses after the latest cryptocurrency crash. The next group, the Binance Traders, has a cost basis of $55,000, around where the asset’s spot price is trading. Thus, these investors would currently be just breaking even on their investments. Bitcoin still holds a distance above the Realized Price of the third group, the Miner Whales, at $45,000. As the CryptoQuant founder has pointed out, BTC dipping below this level has historically confirmed a bear market for the coin. From the chart, it’s visible that the asset last saw major breaches of the level back in November 2018 and May 2022. It also saw a temporary break during the COVID crash in March 2020. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Cross $1 Billion As Bitcoin Crashes To $51,000 As the latest crash has been unable to take Bitcoin below this cost basis of the mining companies, it’s possible that a transition towards a bear market hasn’t happened yet. The last cohort in the chart is the Long-Term Holder Whales, which includes the whales that have been holding for more than 155 days. The Realized Price of this group has never been breached in the coin’s entire history and currently trades around $22,000. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has gone up 7% to reclaim the $55,000 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin is back above the cost basis of the short-term holders, a sign that can be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Is Back Above The Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC has reclaimed the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors in the Bitcoin market. When the value of this metric is greater than the cryptocurrency’s spot price, the average holder in the sector can be assumed to be carrying some unrealized profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under the BTC price implies the dominance of losses in the market. Related Reading: XRP Surges 39% As Sharks & Whales Push Supply Share Past 85% In the context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire userbase isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their tokens within the past 155 days. This cohort makes up one of the two main divisions of the BTC sector based on holding time, with the other part of the market being known as the long-term holders (LTHs). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price specifically for this cohort over the past year: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price had plunged under the Realized Price of the STHs last month, meaning that this group had gone into a state of net loss. After spending some time below the line, though, the cryptocurrency has risen above the metric with the latest rally, thus bringing this cohort back into profit. “This is usually a very bullish sign,” notes Maartunn. The chart shows that the last time the asset broke back above this level after an extended stay below it was last October. This surge back above the line kicked off a run that would eventually result in the coin setting a new all-time high (ATH). As for why BTC breaking above the STH Realized Price has historically been something bullish, the answer lies in investor psychology. The STHs, who are relatively inexperienced hands, can be sensitive to price movements. More specifically, they are likely to show a reaction when their average cost basis undergoes a retest. When these investors are bearish, they may decide to sell when the price rises to their cost basis, as they may worry that the surge won’t last. Similarly, they react by accumulating further instead during bullish periods, as they could see their cost basis as a profitable point for buying more. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Suggests BTC Oversold As BTC has been able to surge past this line recently, it wouldn’t appear that the STHs are offering resistance right now, and thus, a bullish sentiment is still dominant among them. BTC Price Bitcoin had recovered above $66,000 yesterday, but the coin has since seen some pullback as its price is now down to $64,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is trading near a level that has historically acted as the boundary for the ‘euphoria’ phase of the market. Bitcoin Is Not Far From This Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Level According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC’s recent consolidation has been near the historical boundary between the ‘equilibrium’ and ‘euphoria’ phases of the bull market. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Tied To BitMEX Whales: Quant Uncovers Link The level in question multiplies the Realized Price for the long-term holders. The Realized Price here refers to an on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors on the Bitcoin network. When the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this indicator, the investors can be assumed to be holding a net amount of unrealized profit. Similarly, the asset’s value under the metric could suggest the dominance of losses on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price, specifically for the “long-term holders” (LTH), is of interest. The LTHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who have held onto their coins for more than 155 days without having sold/transferred them on the network. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the LTHs, as well as a couple of its multiples, over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Realized Price is trading around $21,800 right now. This is significantly lower than the current spot price of the asset, so this cohort would be holding considerable profits currently. Statistically, the longer an investor holds their BTC stack, the less likely they become to sell the coins at any point. As such, the LTHs, who tend to hold for long periods, include the most resolute holders in the market. This group doesn’t react easily to market events, like rallies or crashes. That said, when their gains grow very large, even these HODLers start getting tempted by the allure of profit-taking. Historically, this has happened as the Bitcoin market has approached the ‘euphoria’ phase. Glassnode defines it as that market phase when the price breaks above the 3.5x multiplier of the LTH Realized Price. This level currently stands at $76,400, just above the consolidation range the cryptocurrency has recently been stuck in. The chart shows that during the past two bull runs, the asset’s price blew up when it broke past this level. Related Reading: This Historical Ethereum Top Signal Is Yet To Appear This Cycle It remains to be seen how long Bitcoin takes to breach this boundary to escape from the current ‘equilibrium’ phase and fill investors with euphoria. BTC Price Bitcoin has declined toward the lower end of its consolidation range during the past few weeks, as its price is now trading around $61,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com