Bitcoin has recently shown a recovery back above the $68,000 mark. Here’s who could be behind this rally, according to on-chain data. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Remained Negative Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Coinbase Premium Gap has been declining alongside the recent price rise. The “Coinbase […]
Bitcoin has had a volatile week, with its price fluctuating between a local high of $69,500 and a low of $65,000. Following weeks of strong bullish momentum, the market has now cooled, and BTC is consolidating just below the crucial $70,000 level. This key threshold is seen as a trigger for intensified buying pressure if Bitcoin manages to break above it. Related Reading: Solana Breakout From Bullish Pattern Could ‘Send SOL To The Moon’ – Crypto Analyst According to CryptoQuant data, there’s still room for further growth, as short-term holder (STH) coins are trading at a 6.2% net asset value (NAV) premium. This premium is often viewed as a gauge of market sentiment, reflecting the optimism of short-term holders who are willing to pay above the current market value to acquire Bitcoin. A higher NAV premium generally suggests that investors expect continued price appreciation and are positioning themselves for future gains. As BTC stabilizes in its current range, all eyes are on the $70,000 mark as a potential breakout level that could pave the way for a fresh rally. With positive market sentiment and supportive data, Bitcoin’s outlook for the coming weeks remains encouraging, fueled by both technical signals and strong buyer interest. Retail Buying Bitcoin (Again) Bitcoin is experiencing growing demand from short-term holders as its price consolidates below key supply levels, close to all-time highs. Analyst Axler Adler recently shared critical insights on X, showing that Bitcoin’s net asset value (NAV) premium among short-term holders has climbed to 6.2%. This 6.2% NAV premium indicates that Bitcoin’s current market price is trading 6.2% above the average acquisition cost for short-term holders. Essentially, these investors are valuing Bitcoin at a premium, suggesting optimism about the potential for further gains. Adler explains that this metric acts as a bullish signal, highlighting room for continued price growth. An NAV premium of 25% or higher typically points to an overheated market, implying that demand has yet to reach excessive levels. According to Adler’s analysis, the NAV premium is an important gauge of market sentiment. A moderate premium like 6.2% reflects healthy demand among short-term holders, aligning with an accumulation phase rather than a peak. This is especially relevant as Bitcoin’s price consolidates under significant resistance levels, potentially setting the stage for a breakout. Related Reading: On-Chain Indicator Signals Bitcoin Cycle Top Is Far Ahead – Data Confirms Bullish Outlook Bitcoin’s consolidation below its key supply levels and rising demand among short-term holders reflects a favorable environment for potential price appreciation. If short-term holder demand continues to grow, it could fuel BTC’s ascent to new highs. The balance between premium demand and manageable NAV levels could signal sustained upward momentum. There is a potential rally on the horizon if buying pressure strengthens at current levels. Technical Level To Watch Bitcoin is trading at $66,900 after establishing solid support around $65,000. The price action signals resilience as it consolidates above this crucial level. This support around $65,000 marks a significant pivot, as holding above it reflects underlying strength and fuels optimism among investors. However, for Bitcoin to keep bullish momentum, a push above $70,000 is essential to confirm the uptrend. If Bitcoin loses the $65,000 level, analysts foresee a retrace toward the 200-day moving average (MA) at $63,274. This level is relevant as a long-term support zone. A pullback to this area could attract new buyers, reinforcing it as a major support if tested. Related Reading: Dogecoin Liquidity Sweep Signals DOGE Is Ready For A Rally Investors view the 200-day MA as a key anchor for Bitcoin’s bullish structure. If BTC can hold above $65,000 and eventually break $70,000, it would indicate a continuation of the current bullish phase. Conversely, a dip below these supports would shift focus to the 200-day MA. Holding above this moving average is crucial to prevent a bearish reversal. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a remarkable surge in the past 14 days, nearing the $70,000 mark earlier this week. However, some market watchers shared their worries about the recent retraces, suggesting the cryptocurrency could face another correction ahead of the US Presidential election. Related Reading: Is The Cat Season Here? MEW Hits $1 Billion Market Cap After New ATH Bitcoin To Face Another Shakeout Soon This ‘Uptober,’ Bitcoin has recorded a 12% surge from its opening price, jumping from the $60,000 support level and reclaiming key resistance zones. In the last two weeks, BTC recovered 14% from the early October shakeouts, nearing a retest of the long-awaited $70,000 mark. The cryptocurrency faced major resistance after surging above the $69,000 zone, a level not seen since late July. After the unsuccessful retest, Bitcoin’s price faced a 5.3% pullback toward the $65,000-$66,000 range, failing to reclaim the $67,000 mark until Thursday. Based on BTC’s recent performance, some analysts consider that the flagship crypto is poised to face another correction in the coming weeks. Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa revealed he is unsure about where Bitcoin’s “extremely chippy conditions” are headed in the short term. Sherpa shared that the cryptocurrency could see one last shakeout “sometime in November.” He suggested BTC could face another pullback toward the $62,000-$64,000 price range around the time of the US Presidential elections, scheduled for November 5. However, the analyst believes that Bitcoin will continue its bullish rally after the shakeout. Another market watcher also forecasted another correction for BTC’s near future. Analyst Crypto King stated that BTC is set to close above $70,000 this week before facing rejection from the key level. Following the rejection, Bitcoin would retrace 8% toward $64,000-$65,000, which could propel altcoins to “start moving 5-6x from the current position,” according to the analyst. Is BTC Set For A Green Weekly Close? Despite the rainy forecast, other investors remain bullish on the flagship crypto. Crypto analyst Moustache set the $67,000-$68,000 range as “insanely important support levels.” To the analyst, if BTC’s price holds its support there, it will hit $70,000 soon. After Bitcoin jumped above the $68,000 resistance on Friday morning, Crypto Yapper noted that BTC broke out of a weekly bull flag and was “ready for an exponential move.” The analyst also asserted that the next horizontal level to break before the $70,000 test is $69,000. Related Reading: Web3 Automation Provider Ava Protocol’s Demand Surges 900% Ahead Of Token Launch Nonetheless, he stated that Bitcoin should make a higher high to remain bullish. Similarly, Rekt Capital pointed out that BTC’s old downtrend line is supporting, which serves as post-breakout confirmation. Per the post, the cryptocurrency would record a bullish weekly close above the $66,300 mark. The analyst also highlighted that if BTC closes above the $67,900 zone, It will register a “very bullish weekly close” ahead of October’s last week. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $67,737, a mild 0.3% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the ratio between two Bitcoin on-chain metrics has recently formed a pattern that has historically been bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR Ratio Has Crossed Above Its 90-Day MA Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the recent trend in the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors as a whole are selling at a profit or loss. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder is making BTC transactions at a net profit. On the other hand, it being under the mark implies loss-taking is dominant on the network. Related Reading: Dogecoin Surges 16%, But Here’s What DOGE ‘Risk Indicator’ Says About Rally The SOPR Ratio, the actual metric of interest here, keeps track of the ratio between the version of the SOPR specifically for short-term holders and that for long-term holders. Short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) are the two main divisions of the Bitcoin userbase made on the basis of holding time. The cutoff between these cohorts is 155 days, with investors who hold past this mark moving from the STHs to the LTHs. Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio and its 90-day moving average (MA) over the history of the cryptocurrency: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio has seen a surge recently, which suggests the LTHs have been ramping up their profit-taking compared to the STHs. This trend is something that has historically been witnessed during bullish periods, since the LTHs are resolute entities who tend to amass large profits by the time the bull run hits in full swing. The STHs are by definition the holders who bought within the past five months, meaning that their cost basis lies somewhere around the prices that BTC was trading at inside this window. Thus, their profits are never as big as the LTHs, who often have their cost basis close to bear market lows. This is why the ratio blows up toward the LTHs in bullish periods. With the latest increase, the SOPR Ratio has reached a value of 1.8 and has surpassed its 90-day MA. In the chart, the CryptoQuant author has highlighted the past instances of this crossover. It would appear that this pattern has generally proven to be bullish for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Is It Too Late To Accumulate Bitcoin? What This Indicator Says Naturally, the profit-taking from the LTHs can be a concern, but as is apparent from the graph, the cycle has usually only been at risk of topping out when the ratio has broken above a value of 7. Thus, there could still be plenty of room to run for Bitcoin, with demand potentially absorbing the LTH profit-taking until the same extreme levels as the past cycles. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,200, up more than 1% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows a Bitcoin signal that has led to at least a 70% rally the last four times has recently formed for the asset once again. Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Seen A Bullish Crossover Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the recent trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The realized cap here refers to an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price. This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, so the realized cap is essentially a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. Put another way, this model represents the capital the investors have put into the asset. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity In contrast, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value the investors hold right now. When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, so they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the metric under this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has seen a surge recently as the asset’s price has gone through its recovery run, implying investor profitability has improved. With this increase, the indicator has now broken above its 180-day MA. Historically, a surge beyond this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has proven to be a bullish predictor for the price. Related Reading: Dogecoin Breaks Away With 9% Surge: Why This Could Trouble Bitcoin In the chart, the analyst highlighted the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. BTC appeared to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions. Going by this precedent, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. It only remains to be seen, though, whether any such rally would be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has continued to leave the exchanges’ wallets recently, a sign that the asset’s price could be bullish. Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Has Registered A Significant Decline Recently As explained by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, exchanges have seen a massive amount of Bitcoin leave over the last few […]
Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has nearly turned to extreme greed as the cryptocurrency’s price has rallied to the $68,000 mark. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Currently Inside The Greed Region The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. This index makes use of the data of the following five factors in order to determine the sentiment: trading volume, volatility, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Once found, it represents the market mentality as a score between 0 and 100. When the metric has a value greater than 53, it means the traders as a whole share a sentiment of greed right now. On the other hand, it being under the 47 mark implies the dominance of fear in the market. The territory in-between these two corresponds to a net neutral mentality. Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Sees Fastest Rise In 5 Months: Brace For More Volatility? Besides these three main sentiment zones, there are also two special regions called the extreme fear and the extreme greed. The former of these occurs at 25 and under, while the latter at 75 and above. Now, here is what the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been like: As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 73, which suggests that the investors are currently showing a significant amount of greed. This is a notable change from how the mood in the market was last week, as the index had declined into the fear zone then. The below chart shows how the value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has changed over the past year: From the graph, it’s visible that this latest uplift in the sentiment, which has come as a result of the asset’s rally to $68,000, has taken the index to the highest value since the end of July. Back then, the high sentiment values had led to a top for the cryptocurrency. This type of pattern is something that has actually been witnessed throughout history. It turns out that Bitcoin has a tendency to move in the direction opposite to what the crowd is expecting and the probability of such a contrary move increases the more the traders lean towards one side. In the extreme regions, this likelihood is the strongest, so tops and bottoms have often formed when the investors have shared these sentiments. The current value of the index is just outside the extreme greed zone, so a top could become likely for the asset should the investor mentality continue to improve. Related Reading: Bitcoin Analyst Reveals Best On-Chain Metric For ‘Day-To-Day Trading’ The sentiment may also not even have to improve further for such a scenario to follow out, as the top back in July had occurred when the index had a value of 74, only one unit greater than the current one. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,000, up more than 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture after weeks of intense volatility, marked by excitement and fear. Currently trading around $59,400, BTC is testing vital demand levels following a 10% dip from local highs of approximately $66,000. This recent price action has sparked uncertainty among investors, some of whom remain hopeful for new all-time highs […]
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has surged recently, suggesting it could at least partially be behind the latest price surge. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Has Now Assumed Notable Positive Values As pointed out by CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno in a new post on X, the BTC Coinbase Premium Index has shot […]
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has dipped into the bottom region, which may be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Seen A Sharp Decline Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is giving a bottom signal for the third time in 2024. The “NVT ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. When the value of this metric is high, it means the asset’s value (that is, the market cap) is high when compared to the network’s ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend could imply the BTC price is overvalued. Related Reading: XRP Sharks & Whales Push Bags To ATH As Price Rockets 19% On the other hand, the low indicator suggests the market cap is low compared to the transfer volume, so the cryptocurrency’s price could have room for growth. In the context of the current topic, a modified version of the NVT ratio is the actual indicator of relevance: the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend of the metric with its long-term one to determine the appearances of local tops and bottoms in the NVT ratio. More particularly, the 10-day moving average (MA) stands for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the over the past few months: In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two regions of the NVT Golden Cross that have historically been relevant for cryptocurrency. At values above 2.2, the asset can be assumed to be close to the top, as here, the short-term trend of the NVT ratio has significantly surpassed its long-term one. Similarly, the zone under -1.6 is where bottoms can probably form. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has observed a plunge recently as the Bitcoin price itself has crashed down. The metric has entered the latter region, suggesting that the coin may have become underpriced. This is the third time that the NVT Golden Cross has breached this territory this year, with the first instance occurring back in January, during the price drawdown that had followed the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. This period of the asset being undervalued was followed by a rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Jumps 39% From Crash Low, But Is This Rally Sustainable? The second instance of the indicator entering the bottoming zone was last month, with the low paving the way for a rally toward $70,000. Given that both of these occurrences proved bullish for Bitcoin, it remains to be seen where this third one leads. BTC Price Bitcoin has furthered its recovery during the past day as its price has now broken back above the $58,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive again, a sign that demand for buying BTC is back from the American investors. Bitcoin Makes Recovery As Coinbase Premium Index Turns Green As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has surged into the positive territory […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin network is finally witnessing a major influx of new users after hitting multi-year lows in adoption earlier in the year. Bitcoin New Addresses Has Reversed Trend Since June Bottom According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin has been seeing growth in daily new addresses recently. A “new […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin mining revenue has neared its yearly average, a sign that capitulation could be coming to a close for miners. Bitcoin Miner Revenue Is Now Close To Its 365-Day SMA In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten has discussed about how the situation of the BTC miners is […]
Based on on-chain data, the Head of Research at the analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how Bitcoin has been looking less bullish recently. Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator Has Seen A Decline Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno shared what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market […]
An on-chain analyst has explained how Bitcoin is sitting like a coiled spring right now, a state the asset doesn’t usually stay in for too long. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Sell-Side Risk Ratio Has Declined Recently In a new post on X, analyst Checkmate has discussed the recent trend occurring in the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for the Bitcoin short-term holders. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio here refers to an indicator that tells us about how the absolute profit and loss being locked in by the investors compares against the BTC Realized Cap. The Realized Cap is basically a measure of the total amount of capital that holders as a whole have used to purchase their coins, as determined by on-chain data. Related Reading: Bitcoin Not ‘Overvalued’ Yet, Says CryptoQuant CEO: Here’s Why Thus, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which takes the ratio between the sum of profit and loss with this initial investment, provides info about how the profit or loss-taking from the investors looks like relative to their cost basis. When the value of the indicator is high, it means the holders are realizing a large profit or loss right now. Such a trend may follow some sharp volatility in the asset’s price. On the other hand, the metric being low implies that investors are only selling coins close to their break-even level. This kind of trend could suggest profit or loss-takers in the market have become exhausted. In the context of the current topic, the entire market’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio isn’t of interest, but rather that of only a specific segment of it: the short-term holders (STHs). These investors are typically defined as those who acquired their coins within the past 155 days. The below chart shows the trend in the metric for this cohort over the past decade: As is visible in the graph, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio for the Bitcoin STHs had shot up to a very high level when the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH) had occurred earlier in the year. Historically, the STHs have shown to be the fickle-minded hands of the market, who sell easily at the sight of any FOMO or FUD in the sector. As such, it’s not surprising to see that these investors had ramped up their profit realization alongside the rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Solid On-Chain Cushion Below $68,900: Stage Set For Fresh Rally? Since this peak, though, the indicator has gone through a steep decline as the price of the cryptocurrency has been stuck in endless consolidation. Following the drawdown, the metric has now returned to relatively low levels. It would appear that as the tight sideways movement has occurred, sellers among the STHs have seen exhaustion. “Bitcoin is coiled like a spring, and it usually doesn’t sit still like this for long,” notes the analyst. With the asset’s price surging to $71,000 in the past day, it’s possible that this unwinding may already be here. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed an increase of around 3% in the past 24 hours, which has now taken its price to $70,900. Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin could have significant support between $66,900 and $68,900, which may help provide solid ground for a fresh surge to higher levels. A Large Amount Of Investors Bought Their Bitcoin Between $66,900 & $68,900 According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, BTC is currently floating above a major demand zone. In on-chain analysis, the strength of any support or resistance level is based on how much “demand” was present at it. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Realized Volatility’ Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next Below is a chart that shows the various Bitcoin price ranges near the current spot value and how they compare in terms of the total amount of the asset the investors purchased. Here, the size of the dot correlates to the total number of tokens that were last acquired at the corresponding price range. It would appear that, out of these zones, the levels between $66,900 and $68,900 currently host the cost basis of the greatest amount of BTC. More than two million addresses have acquired 1.1 million BTC inside this range. Since the current BTC spot price is above these levels, all investors who buy there will make slight profits. Investor cost basis is important in the on-chain analysis because the level has special psychological significance. A potential retest of it can result in a flip of the profit-loss balance for the holder. As such, investors may be prone to making some moves when a retest like this takes place. A holder carrying losses before the retest (that is, the retest is happening from below) may be tempted to sell for fear that the price will go down in the future. On the other hand, an investor in the green before the retest may have reason to believe the price would go up again and, thus, could decide to accumulate more. When retests of price ranges thick with investors, one of these reactions may arise on a scale that could be relevant for the wider market, therefore, major demand zones below can act as support points, while those above can act as resistance blocks. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Rise To $79,600 If This Holds Bitcoin has a large support range of $66,900 to $68,900 right now, which could help cushion any falls should the asset’s price decrease. From the chart, it’s also apparent that, at the same time, the Bitcoin ranges ahead are thin with holders. This could, in theory, provide the ideal conditions for a rally towards higher levels. BTC Price Bitcoin surged past the $70,000 level earlier in the day, but the asset has since retraced to $69,100. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin navigates through a period of consolidation, the asset’s price movements are being monitored for optimal entry points. Michaël van de Poppe, a renowned crypto analyst, has recently shared valuable insights into Bitcoin’s current market status and potential for future movement. According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin aims to stabilize within a particular price level, hinting at a possibly extended consolidation phase that could offer a clearer picture for strategic market entries. Related Reading: Bollinger Bands Inventor Foresees Bitcoin Pullback: Key Levels To Watch Strategic Buying Opportunities For Bitcoin Van de Poppe suggests specific price marks that could represent advantageous buying opportunities for Bitcoin. He points out that if Bitcoin’s price were to drop below $66,000, it could reach lower range levels, presenting a prime buying opportunity. #Bitcoin aims to consolidate in these levels. Where to buy? Losing $66K and I think we’ll test range low and be buying there again. That’s the level where you’d want to get your purchases ready. pic.twitter.com/RoYYzJJnt8 — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 27, 2024 Furthermore, in another post published on May 24, the analyst revealed that Bitcoin could slide towards $61,000, which could mark another significant entry point for investors. Monitoring these price levels could be key to capitalizing on potential market lows. In addition to pinpointing optimal buying zones, Van de Poppe advocates adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy during this period. #Bitcoin is consolidating, and it’s within the range. Probably that consolidation will be taking place for a longer period and I suspect we might see $61-63K even. Rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum causing a longer sideways period. It’s fine. Simply DCA. pic.twitter.com/7hb77dNEKx — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 24, 2024 This method involves making regular purchases of Bitcoin at fixed intervals, regardless of the fluctuating prices, thereby averaging the investment cost over time. This strategy is particularly beneficial in mitigating the risks associated with BTC prices’ high volatility. It allows traders to build positions without the pressure of timing the market perfectly. Comparative Analysis And Future Outlook While van de Poppe focuses on immediate strategies for navigating the current Bitcoin climate, other analysts, like PlanB, look at broader market indicators to forecast future movements. PlanB, known for its Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, observes that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) score and Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) show signs of a potential surge. Bitcoin is gaining momentum pic.twitter.com/tbQu7o0hDB — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 26, 2024 Historical data suggests that rising MVRV scores, alongside increasing RSI, often precede market tops and heightened buying activity. Moreover, PlanB’s recent analysis indicates that the periods with low MVRV scores, which typically correspond with bearish market phases, might be cycling out, hinting at upcoming bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Gain Breathing Room As Long-Term Holder Activity Eases – Glassnode This could mean that, despite the recent high of $71,000, Bitcoin might not only revisit these levels but could potentially exceed them, challenging its all-time high of $73,000 set in March. Featured image created with DALL·E, Chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has dipped into the “undervalued” territory for the first time in more than a year. Bitcoin Puell Multiple Has Observed A Plunge Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post pointed out, the BTC Puell Multiple has fallen recently. The Puell Multiple refers to an on-chain indicator […]
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could be positioned for new all-time highs (ATHs) if it can break through this on-chain resistance level. Bitcoin On-Chain Data Could Suggest This Level Holds Major Resistance In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed Bitcoin’s current on-chain resistance. In on-chain analysis, the strength of support and resistance levels is based on the total amount of cryptocurrency last acquired at each level. Below is a chart for Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which shows the supply distribution across the various price levels based on where the investors bought their coins. From the graph, it’s visible that in terms of the levels currently ahead of the spot price, the $66,250 mark stands out as it hosts the cost basis of over 2% of all Bitcoin UTXOs. Generally, the cost basis is a special level for any investor, and they are naturally more likely to react when it is retested, as it can lead to a flip in their profit-loss situation. The spot price retesting a level won’t produce much reaction if only a few investors share their cost basis around the level. Still, if many holders bought there, the cryptocurrency could see visible effects upon a retest. Investors who are losing money may look forward to such a retest to exit out at their break-even point, as they may fear that the asset will fall back down again in the future, so getting away with their initial capital would seem like the ideal decision. As such, a retest of a level dense with UTXOs from below can lead to a selling reaction in the market, making these levels points of strong resistance for Bitcoin. Since the $66,250 level appears to be where the most coins were purchased out of the levels ahead, this level could be the toughest one to break for the cryptocurrency. On the brighter side, though, the levels after this point are relatively thin. “Once BTC breaks past this level, it will be positioned for new all-time highs!” explains the analyst. The market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has also discussed about on-chain cost basis distribution in an X post today. As revealed by the firm, around 10% of all addresses acquired their coins between the current spot price and the all-time high the asset set back in March. This would naturally mean that 10% of the total addresses, equivalent to 5.16 million, are in the red on the Bitcoin network. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to move in its recent range, with its price currently trading around the $62,800 level. Featured image from Erling Løken Andersen on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin exchange inflow trend has been at its lowest in almost a decade recently, a sign that may be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Have Been On The Decline Recently As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a post on X, the BTC exchange inflows have […]
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin seems to be showing a good setup to reach escape velocity based on the trend in this indicator. Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator Has Been Showing A Bullish Divergence As explained by analyst Willy Woo in a new post on X, a bullish divergence has appeared to be forming in the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) oscillator of the cryptocurrency. The VWAP is an indicator that calculates an average price for any given asset, taking into account not only the price but also the volume. More formally, it’s calculated as the cumulative price sum multiplied by the volume divided by the cumulative volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Relative Open Interest Lowest Since Feb, Analyst Says “Hard To Be Bearish” This metric puts a higher weight on the price at which more volume is traded. Usually, the exchange-reported volume is used to find the metric, but for a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, the entire transaction history is visible to the public thanks to blockchain data. Woo has used on-chain volume instead to calculate the VWAP for BTC. The VWAP oscillator, the actual indicator of interest here, is a ratio between the asset’s spot price and VWAP. Here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in this metric over the past couple of years: The value of the metric seems to have been on the decline in recent days | Source: @woonomic on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin VWAP oscillator has been in the negative territory for the past month but has recently shown a turnaround. Although the metric is heading up, it’s still very much contained inside the red zone. At the same time as this rise, the cryptocurrency’s price has been heading down instead. According to Woo, this is a bullish divergence forming for the asset and it’s also one that has a “lot of room to run,” since tops in the coin have generally occurred when the oscillator has reached a point of reversal at relatively high levels inside the positive zone, which should still be quite far away. “Seems like a good setup for BTC to reach escape velocity,” notes the analyst. It remains to be seen whether the bullish divergence will end up bearing fruits for the asset. In some other news, the Bitcoin whales (investors carrying 1,000 BTC or more) participated in buying around the recent lows of the asset. Still, market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has revealed that the accumulation sprees from these large investors have been displaying an overall downtrend. The trend in the netflow of the BTC whales over the past couple of months | Source: IntoTheBlock on X From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin whales have been buying at each of the dips in the last few months, but it’s also visible that the scale of this buying has been diminishing with each one. Related Reading: XRP Forms On-Chain Signal That Led To 16% Crash Last Time This could be a sign that the appetite for buying among these investors, although still present, is getting smaller with each dip. BTC Price When writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $63,500, up over 1% in the last seven days. Looks like the price of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
A quant has pointed out that a popular on-chain indicator for Bitcoin gives the asset the green light to experience bullish price action. Bitcoin Puell Multiple Has Observed A Plunge Recently As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple is currently in the “safe to buy zone.” The “Puell […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin exchange inflows have remained low recently, a sign that the whales have been disinterested in selling. Bitcoin Inflows For Binance & OKX Have Stayed Low Recently As pointed out by CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju in a post on X, the BTC deposits for cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin shark cohort has participated in its largest accumulation spree over the past month since 2012. Bitcoin Sharks Have Purchased More Than 268,000 BTC In The Last Month As analyst James Van Straten explains in a new post on X, Bitcoin entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have made some large […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has plunged to its lowest since March 2023. Here’s what this could mean for BTC. Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio Has Been Heading Down Recently As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has been declining recently. The “Exchange Stablecoins Ratio” […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin investors have been capitulating recently, a sign that FUD has been gripping the market. Bitcoin Total Amount Of Holders Has Seen A Drop Recently According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the Bitcoin Total Amount of Holders has registered a notable decline recently. The “Total Amount of Holders” here is an indicator that measures the total number of addresses on the BTC blockchain that are carrying some non-zero balance right now. When the value of this metric trends up, it can mean that fresh hands are potentially investing into the cryptocurrency, opening new addresses and adding coins to them. Related Reading: Solana Whale Makes Massive 1,000,000 SOL Deposit To Binance, Bearish Sign? The indicator would naturally also increase if any investors who had left the asset before are returning back to it and filling up their wallets again. Another possible reason for the trend can also be due to holders breaking up their holdings into multiple wallets, for purposes like privacy. In general, though, an increase in the Total Amount of Holders is usually a sign that net adoption of the coin is taking place, which can be a bullish sign in the long term. On the other hand, a decline in the indicator can signal that some investors have decided to leave the cryptocurrency behind, as they have completely liquidated their holdings. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Total Amount of Holders over the past few months: The value of the metric appears to have gone through a drawdown in recent days | Source: Santiment on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Total Amount of Holders has suffered a decrease during the past 10 days or so. In all, 311,000 addresses have completely emptied themselves inside this window. “To a novice trader, this may appear to be a concern with less overall active participants. However, historically this stat has reflected FUD moments in the market, indicating small BTC wallets are typically capitulating as large wallets scoop up their coins,” explains Santiment. From the chart, it’s visible that there have also been two other instances of mass capitulation within the past few months. More specifically, 1.1 million addresses exited between the 23rd of September and 23rd of October, while 757,000 capitulated between the 21st of January and 13th of February. Interestingly, during these capitulation events, the price went up 28% and 24%, respectively. So far since the latest selloff from the small hands has started, the cryptocurrency is down about 3%. Related Reading: Santiment Reveals Best Altcoins Currently In “Opportunity Zone” “If history is any indication, Bitcoin has a strong chance of putting up positive returns before this exodus of non-0 wallets this round (due to traders thinking the top is in) finally stops,” notes the analytics firm. BTC Price Since Bitcoin’s low at $60,600, the asset has enjoyed some sharp recovery as its price has now surged to the $66,800 level. Looks like the value of the coin has climbed back up over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com