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The founder of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted how the signals related to a Bitcoin bull run haven’t switched on yet. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Still Inside The Neutral Territory In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has shared the latest trend in the Bull Score Index for Bitcoin. This on-chain metric combines the data of several different indicators to give a single score for the network. Related Reading: XRP Declines 8%, But Whales Scoop Up 71 Million Tokens More specifically, the index makes use of ten metrics. Some of the popular ones part of it include the MVRV Z-Score, Trader Realized Price, and Stablecoin Liquidity. The Bull Score Index calculates its value in a simple manner: it counts up the number of metrics flashing a bullish signal for the cryptocurrency and multiplies the total by 10. When the indicator has a value greater than 60, it means more than six metrics are pointing to positive market conditions. Such a trend implies BTC may be in a bullish market phase. On the other hand, the index being lower than 40 suggests the majority of the indicators are bearish toward the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows how the trend in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fluctuated over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index spent its days inside the red territory during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. This means that the market was in a bearish phase from the perspective of this index. Recently, however, the recovery surge has meant that the indicator has experienced some days inside the neutral zone, corresponding to values between 40 and 60. The shift in the metric’s trend, though, may not correspond to the return of a bullish wave yet. “Once the real Bitcoin bull run begins, all signals will be very clear,” noted the analyst. “We are not there yet.” It now remains to be seen how long it will be before the Bull Score Index turns green for the cryptocurrency. In some other news, the Bitcoin supply held by the long-term holders (LTHs) has broken out of a downtrend recently, as analyst James Van Straten has highlighted in an X post. The LTHs refer to the BTC investors holding for more than 155 days ago. This cohort is considered to correspond to the diamond hands of the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red As the chart below shows, the total holdings of these investors have shot up recently. The latest surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply could mark the end of a 2.5-year long consolidation phase for the metric. “This cohort controls the market and this is why the four year cycle is over,” said the analyst. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $77,300, down more than 4% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Market expert Ali Martinez recently revealed on X (formerly Twitter) what he describes as “the secret to every major Bitcoin bull run since 2011,” saying October could offer one of the best entry points ahead of the next bull market.  Martinez shared an on‑chain fractal breakdown that points to a potential “final discount” in October of this year, where investors might find optimal buying opportunities before the next sustained uptrend. Bitcoin Could Bottom At $41,000-$45,000 In his social media post, Martinez suggests that Bitcoin is still operating within a four‑year rhythm that breaks down into a sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and a bear phase.  Within that larger cycle, he highlights two shorter subcycles and asserts the market is now moving into what he describes as the “final discount” period. Using that framework, Martinez puts a likely “golden entry” window between October 6 and October 16, 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Bottom Signal? Analyst Maps Out Road To $10,000 Beyond timing, Martinez offered specific price bands for ideal buying opportunities. He identified entry points in the $41,500 to $45,000 range, which would represent declines of roughly 41% and 36%, respectively, from current trading levels of around $70,800. October Launchpad  Those potential retracements in the coming months imply that Bitcoin may still have substantial downside before the October window, according to his reading of past cycles. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could 200% Rally If This Floor Holds, Analyst Says However, Martinez framed the scenario as an actionable pattern rather than mere speculation: if the fractal holds, the October interval could serve as the launchpad that begins a fresh four‑year cycle and sets the stage for the next vertical price move.   The expert concluded his Monday social media post by saying the “countdown to the next Bitcoin vertical move has begun.” Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027. Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening.  They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.  The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise. Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range.  This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets. Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.  Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion. Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets.  Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity. There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends.  Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth. Extended Bitcoin Uptrend Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory. Related Reading: Trend Reversal Puts Dogecoin On A Path To $0.188 The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.  The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend. Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price action has been somewhat impressive in 2025, as the flagship cryptocurrency ascended from around $93,300 in early January to its current all-time-high price of $126,000 this month. While the digital asset saw a couple of resets along the way, it continued to put in new highs, reflecting the magnitude of confidence held by its long-term investors. However, the recent correction seen this October seems to be shaking that confidence, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bull cycle, and if the long-feared bear market is imminent. However, recent on-chain data points to an interestingly brighter outlook than what is currently being experienced by market participants. Some Relevant BTC On-Chain Levels In an October 24 post on the X platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Arch Physicist highlighted what could be encouraging news for Bitcoin market participants. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Prediction: Analyst Forecasts What Will Happen In The Last Quarter Of The Year The crypto pundit’s analysis was based on the Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) to Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the amount of coins that are moved on the blockchain in relation to the potential profits based on their movements. Essentially, this metric is used to locate price zones that can serve as support or resistance.  Arch Physicist highlighted four important readings from the metric, thereafter explaining on the underlying functions of each of them. The analyst noted: ‘Gamma + Epsilon’ is used to determine structural highs formed due to Long-Term Holder (LTH) profit-taking, with its current value being around $147,937; ‘Delta + Epsilon’ represents support formed by Short-Term Holder (STH) entry opportunities, currently valued at approximately $92,902. Epsilon, on its part, is used to represent potential price floors.  LTH Support Holds As Bitcoin Puts In Highs  Arch Physicist further explained that the metric’s functions are in tandem with Bitcoin’s historical price action. “Bitcoin’s price has broken above the structural high (Gamma + Epsilon) and reached ATHs near Beta during bull runs. It has also historically made ATLs very close to Epsilon,” the analyst said. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price in this cycle has consistently traded within the support zones established by its LTHs, and the ones by its STHs. However, price seems to be heading towards the lower support zone, which, if breached, could signal the beginning of a bear market. On the other hand, the sustained integrity of the upper support could also be indicating that the bull run has not even started.  As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at approximately $11,890, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe. End Of Bitcoin Bull Cycle Within Nine Days? On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days.  He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a “textbook shakeout of weak hands,” a common pattern observed before market peaks.  Related Reading: Tether Resolves Celsius Lawsuit With Major $300 Million Settlement Deal CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as “right on schedule.” He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days.  The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge.  However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSI’s position at 47 suggests a reset momentum.  What On-Chain Metrics Suggest Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows.  Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Holders Left In The Dark: Monad Protocol Faces Scrutiny Over MON Airdrop On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push.  When examining October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month. In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analyst’s thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently reached a new weekly high above the $112,000 mark, signaling a potential new uptrend for the leading cryptocurrency. This movement may represent the final phase of the current cycle for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.  Market analyst CryptoBirb has indicated that this uptrend could last for approximately 50 more days, emphasizing that Bitcoin is now 95% through its cycle, which has spanned 1,017 days since the lows of November 2022. 50 Days Until Possible Bitcoin Peak Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after significant lows, suggesting a target timeframe for this cycle’s peak could fall between late October and mid-November 2025.  The analysis highlights the typical relationship between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent price peaks. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have passed, with past data showing that price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days following such events.  Related Reading: First US Dogecoin ETF Could Debut Next Week—How Will It Impact Price? As seen in the chart below, Bitcoin is currently 77% to 86% of the way through this timeline, entering what the analyst refers to as the “hot zone”—a period of heightened volatility and potential price movements. However, CryptoBirb cautions that historical trends indicate that after reaching a peak, Bitcoin typically experiences a significant decline, often dropping by 70% to 80% over a 370 to 410-day timeframe.  This bearish phase is projected for approximately the first and second quarter of 2026, with a historical probability of a bear market in that year reaching 100%. Before this potential downturn, the analyst expects a final surge, with about 50 days remaining before the market may peak. September, often recognized as a weaker month for Bitcoin, has shown an average decline of 6.17%. Although third quarter statistics can be mixed, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average tends to reflect a decline due to larger losses.  The typical seasonal pattern suggests that a poor September could be followed by stronger performance in October and November, with September 17 identified as a crucial date to watch by the analyst. Critical Support And Resistance Levels On the technical front, Key support levels are identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300.  The daily chart reveals further technical insights, including a 200-day breakout point at $111,000 and a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has identified local support between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance sits at $113,000 to $114,100. Related Reading: XRP Price Could See 20% Bounce To $3.4 If This Trendline Holds Looking ahead, both short-term and long-term trading trailers are currently in a bearish mode. CryptoBirb asserts that if Bitcoin falls below the critical levels of $107,000 to $108,000, bearish sentiment could intensify, potentially leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%.  Fortunately, cryptocurrency miners appear to be faring well, with the mining cost established at $95,400, suggesting a healthy market environment with minimal capitulation risk. Lastly, the analyst cautions against the potential for a market peak leading into the altcoin season in October and November. CryptoBirb suggests to mark calendars for October 22, as it could be a pivotal date in Bitcoin’s cycle. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,886, down nearly 11% from all-time high levels.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to a value of 20, hinting that a potential bearish transition could have occurred for the asset. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Now In “Extra Bearish” Territory In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has shared how the analytics firm’s “Bull Score Index” has changed for Bitcoin after its recent price drawdown. The Bull Score Index is an indicator that tells us about the market phase the cryptocurrency is currently going through. It determines this by referring to a bunch of key on-chain metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Whale Populations Quietly Growing, On-Chain Data Reveals Below is a chart that shows the trend in the indicator over the past year. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin entered into the “bullish cooldown” phase at the start of August. This signal interestingly persisted even when its price set a new all-time high (ATH) later in the month, a potential sign that the breakout was always gonna be short-lived. In the market downturn that has followed this peak, the Bull Score Index first dipped into the “getting bearish” zone, and now, it has plunged right into “extra bearish” levels. “This is something to take serious,” notes Maartunn. Here is another chart, this one breaking down the individual signals contributing to the Bull Score Index’s value: As displayed in the graph, almost all of the indicators are giving a bearish signal at the moment. Perhaps the most popular metric on the list is the “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score,” which relates to investor profitability. It would appear the current market conditions are bad enough to force it to turn red. Last time the MVRV Z-Score and Bull Score Index turned bearish was back in February of this year. What followed the signal was an extended phase of negative price action for Bitcoin. Given that the Bull Score Index is once again giving an extra bearish indication for the cryptocurrency, it remains to be seen whether its price will now see another transition. Related Reading: Bitcoin Selloff: $2.2 Billion In BTC Floods Exchanges Replying to Maartunn’s post, analyst Ali Martinez has agreed with the caution and shared another signal that could point to a similar outcome for Bitcoin. The indicator cited by Martinez is the net position change of the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin Supply In Profit. From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has turned negative recently, which is something that also happened before the bearish market phase earlier in the year. BTC Price While on-chain metrics may be pointing at a bearish conclusion for Bitcoin, its price has made a recovery to $113,000 for now. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

As the Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum begins to wane, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has retraced to the $110,000 mark, raising concerns about a potential shift into a new bearish cycle.  CryptoBirb, a noted trader and analyst, suggested in a recent social media analysis that Bitcoin has only about 60 days of growth left, indicating that it is currently 93% into its cycle, which has lasted 1,007 days.  This analysis aligns with the ongoing Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, hinting at a critical juncture for the leading cryptocurrency as it approaches the conclusion of its current bullish phase. Potential Peak And Bear Market Timing In examining historical cycles, CryptoBirb highlights significant patterns that may inform future price movements. The analyst points out the duration of past cycles: from around 350 days in the early years to over 1,000 days in more recent cycles.  Presently, Bitcoin’s trajectory is  reportedly tracking toward approximately 1,060 to 1,100 days, placing it in the final 5-8% of this current bullish cycle, holding significant implications for the broader digital asset market as well. Related Reading: Pro-XRP Lawyer Blasts SEC Lead Counsel In Ripple Case Following Conclusion The Bitcoin Halving which took place last April is also a pivotal factor. Historical data reveals that previous Halvings have led to peaks in price approximately 492 days later, suggesting a target window between October 19 and November 20, 2025.  This timeline reinforces the notion that the market is merely 60 days away from a potential peak, with historical cycles indicating that the next significant bear market may not occur until 2026. CryptoBirb also outlines the patterns observed during past bear markets, noting that they typically last between 364 and 411 days, with average losses around 66%. If such a scenario plays out, the next bearish phase could see BTC retracing toward $37,000 once again.  Bitcoin Support And Resistance Levels August and September have historically been challenging months for Bitcoin, with average returns dipping significantly. However, October and November are traditionally among the strongest months, aligning perfectly with the anticipated cycle peak. Related Reading: Machine Learning Algorithm Predicts Ethereum Price Will Cross $9,000, Here’s When From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s current price sits just above key support levels, with the weekly chart indicating a mean-based support of $97,094 and a critical resistance level at $117,058. The analyst advised monitoring these key price levels closely in the coming weeks, as movements below $110,000 could signal a bearish trend. BTC is currently holding just above this support floor after increased volatility. Despite this, on-chain metrics remain relatively healthy, with mining costs around $97,124 and no immediate signs of capitulation. Although recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have shown outflows, the overall market structure suggests a cautious optimism.  To conclude, CryptoBirb notes that while the current sentiment may be mixed, the convergence of cycle mathematics, Halving events, and historical seasonality suggests that the market could be gearing up for a significant finale in the fourth quarter.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In a new episode of Coin Stories with host Nathalie Brunell, investor and podcaster Preston Pysh offered a structurally grounded answer to a question many Bitcoin holders have been asking all summer: if corporate treasuries keep announcing big buys, why does price keep chopping and fading? Pysh’s diagnosis is not about a sudden loss of conviction from long-term holders, but about market-structure dynamics introduced by sophisticated “fast-money” firms that are designed to suppress volatility while extracting basis and funding premia. Why Is Bitcoin Not Rising Much Higher? Brunell framed the dilemma bluntly, asking why spot Bitcoin has gone sideways despite momentum from “the Trump administration” and “all these corporate treasury companies buying,” and who is “really on the sell side” creating headwinds for “$150k and $200k” targets people still float for year-end. Pysh began with empathy for that dissonance: “I definitely can feel the frustration and the pain because like it just feels like every day there’s another announcement of, oh, so and so company just bought ten thousand plus bitcoin. The price was down on the day or whatever.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Strong In ‘Wall Of Worry’, Path To $183,000 Remains Open – Analyst From there, he pointed to the rise of delta-neutral, volatility-harvesting strategies run by major Wall Street trading houses. “If I was going to guess what I think it is, I think that you have fast money Wall Street traders—Jane Street to kind of name one actor and there’s many of them out there—that… are in the business of sucking volatility out of the market and really not having any exposure, other than they’re going long and short simultaneously and they’re arbitraging the difference.” In practice, these trades pair spot, futures, and perpetual swaps so the desk is directionally flat while clipping the spread. The second-order effect, Pysh argued, is visible on the chart: “It’s going to make that volatility continue to collapse as it’s going up… the volatility is getting further and further dampened in that process.” That suppression, he continued, changes how an uptrend feels. Instead of the typical explosive expansions that have historically punctuated Bitcoin bull markets, price action compresses into narrower bands, punctuated by mean-reversion. “Where I think it takes you is this scenario where the spring is coiling and it kind of pops one way or the other,” he said. Directionally, the multi-cycle trend still points higher, but he resisted the lazy inference that a textbook volatility squeeze must resolve vertically. “Markets are highly dependent on liquidity… They’re dependent on all these other external factors… I’m not… saying the volatility is collapsing, it’s going up and we’re going to… the moon. I’m not saying that.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $15 Million Possible Once Powell Is Out, Says Arthur Hayes Liquidity, in Pysh’s framework, is the gating variable that determines whether a coiled spring actually releases to the upside. He watches global risk proxies as a read-through for fiat liquidity rather than confining analysis to crypto-native flows. “When I’m looking at the liquidity metrics of just global equity is a great way I like to… view… I’ll look at all the global equity markets and if they’re all ripping, that’s telling me that the markets are flush with liquidity—fiat liquidity. And right now that’s what we’re seeing… they’re all like bidding. So to me, that’s a healthy indicator that Bitcoin could go higher. But it also is dependent on whether that, whatever the source of that is, continues to persist.” Feels like the most bearish bull market in Bitcoin. What has been putting the sell pressure on btc? https://t.co/9EUuLJnerH pic.twitter.com/vPvpimm7rX — Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) August 23, 2025 Even so, Pysh cautioned against treating volatility compression as a deterministic countdown to six-figure price targets. “People just have to be careful… none of this is a guarantee that it’s going to continue to rip or that compression is signaling that we’re going to $200k in weeks.” He also acknowledged that, if one still subscribes to the four-year halving cadence, this leg looks different from prior cycles. “We’ve maybe seen a little bit of what we’ve seen, which is this dampening of what we have historically seen in the price action… At this part of the cycle… you would have seen a very aggressive move kind of already taking place and… to be honest with you, back… Christmas time frame I would have guessed by now,” he admitted, trailing off as if to concede that the expected vertical expansion simply hasn’t materialized on schedule. At press time, BTC traded at $111,484. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The latest Bitcoin bull run feels different. Scratch that. Every bitcoin bull run feels different, as each cycle brings with it fresh narratives and new blood. But there’s one element that’s always been consistent throughout Bitcoin’s history, and that’s retail interest in buying into freedom tech and f**k you money. Well, Bitcoin to the moon […]
The post 100 days over $100k and nobody cares: Why Bitcoin’s bull run feels lonely appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin is currently holding above the $115,000 level after setting a new all-time high of approximately $123,000 last Monday. The price structure remains firmly bullish, with buyers still in control, but growing signs suggest the potential for a short-term correction. Momentum has slowed, and the market is entering a consolidation phase as traders reassess risk. Related Reading: Coinbase Premium Signals Aggressive Ethereum Accumulation: Institutional Demand Accelerates According to new data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin miner selling has surged sharply. On July 15, the same day Bitcoin reached its latest peak, daily BTC inflows to exchanges jumped from 19,000 BTC to 81,000 BTC — a clear sign that major holders, including miners and whales, took advantage of high prices to offload assets. Notably, miner outflows spiked to 16,000 BTC, the highest daily level since April, and nearly all of it was sent directly to exchanges. These inflows suggest a shift in sentiment among large players, raising the probability of increased supply pressure in the short term. While the broader trend remains intact, and fundamentals like long-term holder activity are still strong, the spike in exchange deposits is a classic signal to watch. Whether this leads to a deeper pullback or simply a healthy reset will likely be decided in the coming days. Miners Take Profits As Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Fresh data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin miners have resumed aggressive selling behavior as BTC reached a new all-time high of ~$123,000. On July 15, miner outflows spiked to 16,000 BTC — the highest single-day total since April 7. This level of activity represents what analysts at CryptoQuant describe as an “extreme outflow,” indicating that miners seized the opportunity to take profits at elevated prices. The miners sent nearly all the BTC they withdrew from their wallets directly to centralized exchanges. This reinforces the interpretation that the move was not simply a strategic reallocation but an active decision to sell into market strength. Such behavior often signals growing caution among miners, who may expect either near-term price exhaustion or are simply capitalizing on favorable conditions after months of holding. Miner behavior has long been viewed as a leading indicator of potential market shifts. When outflows rise — particularly to exchanges — it tends to precede increased volatility or temporary tops. While the broader Bitcoin trend remains bullish and investor demand stays strong, this wave of miner selling injects a dose of uncertainty. Related Reading: Ethereum Enters Top 30 Global Assets With $416B Market Cap – What’s Next? BTC Consolidates Below ATH After Explosive Rally The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) shows price consolidating in a tight range between $115,730 and $123,230 after reaching a new all-time high. This zone is now acting as a short-term channel, with buyers defending the $115K area while facing resistance around $123K. The latest daily candle shows low volatility, suggesting indecision among traders as Bitcoin pauses after its recent breakout. Volume has tapered off following a massive spike that coincided with the all-time high breakout, a potential signal of exhaustion or reduced participation from large buyers. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $108,796 remains well below the current price, confirming the bullish momentum is still intact, but any breakdown below the $115K level could bring the 50-day SMA into focus as a potential support. Related Reading: All 40K Remaining Bitcoin From The 80K Whale Just Moved: $4.75B In One Wallet Now So far, the trend structure remains bullish, but with a growing number of analysts pointing to miner sales and whale activity, traders are closely monitoring price action for signs of a pullback or renewed breakout. If BTC can reclaim $123,230 with volume, the next leg up could follow. Until then, this consolidation may serve as a healthy cooldown before the next major move. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

After rebounding from a local bottom of around $75,000 in April, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be stuck in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, showing little indication of a clear directional trend. One key data point reflecting this indecision is Bitcoin’s network volume. Bitcoin Network Volume Stuck In Balance Zone According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor AxelAdlerJr, Bitcoin’s network volume has stabilized in a state of ‘stable equilibrium,’ reminiscent of the mid-2021 consolidation phase that preceded a major move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Binary CDD Hints At Healthy Consolidation, Not A Top For the uninitiated, Bitcoin network volume refers to the total value of BTC transferred across the blockchain over a specific period, typically used to gauge market activity and capital flow. Higher network volume suggests increased investor engagement and liquidity, while lower volume may indicate reduced interest or market stagnation. Notably, when BTC reached the upper end of its current range – around $110,000 – its average network volume surged to as high as $67 billion. Since then, the metric has slightly declined and now hovers around $58.7 billion. Since January 2024, Bitcoin’s average network volume has ranged between $40 billion and $80 billion. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, this corridor has become a key indicator of network activity balance and broader market sentiment. Historically, when the Bitcoin average volume approached the upper-end of the range at $80 billion, it coincided with local price peaks of $70,000 and $100,000. On the contrary, moves toward the lower-end – around $40 billion – were associated with short-term pullbacks, though these dips were often quickly bought up by market participants. Currently, the $58.7 billion reading sits near the midpoint of this range, mirroring the consolidation phase observed in mid-2021. The analyst explained: As long as the indicator remains above the $40 billion level, we can speak of a stable fundamental market condition. Rising volumes above the $80 billion mark will confirm strengthening activity and fresh capital inflow. On the other hand, a sustained drop below $40 billion will indicate weakening network demand and may be a harbinger of a deeper correction. Is BTC Preparing For A Big Move? While Bitcoin network volume suggests the market is in a state of equilibrium, some on-chain metrics hint at a potential breakout building in the background – possibly paving the way for renewed bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For Rally As Geopolitical Tensions Ease And Inflation Expectations Fall For example, the BTC short-term holder floor has been rising steadily in recent months, currently hovering around $98,000. This provides a strong support base, potentially preventing a sharp downside correction. However, selling pressure from miners and long-term holders is also beginning to increase – casting some uncertainty over BTC’s short-term price trajectory. At press time, BTC trades at $106,528, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,980 on Binance crypto exchange, surpassing its previous ATH of $108,786 recorded in January 2025. However, this rally is missing a crucial element that has historically fuelled sustained bull markets – retail investor participation. Bitcoin Rally Low On Retail Interest According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkesmeci, retail activity during the current BTC rally is notably subdued. This is unusual, as fresh ATHs typically draw significant attention from smaller investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near ATH, But Long-Term Holders Aren’t Selling – More Upside Ahead? The analyst shared the following chart highlighting this trend. It shows that BTC transfer volume in the $0 to $10,000 range – a proxy for retail demand – has only seen a slight uptick, even as prices surge. While Bitcoin’s price has been climbing steadily (white line), the 30-day percentage change in retail demand (green line) has remained largely flat. This indicates that the current momentum is likely driven by institutional investors, with retail participants yet to join in meaningfully. Recent developments support this view. For instance, institutional heavyweight Strategy continues to increase its BTC holdings, now closing in on the 600,000 BTC mark. Historical patterns – particularly from the 2020–2021 bull run – suggest that while institutional accumulation often kicks off a rally, retail investors are typically the fuel that propels it to sustained highs. Without significant retail volume, the current rally may lose steam. Concluding, the CryptoQuant analyst stated that for BTC to continue its price expansion, a clear uptick in retail participation is necessary. They added: We’re seeing early signs of movement, but it’s not yet a breakout. If retail volume kicks in over the next few weeks, new ATHs may just be the beginning. Predicting BTC’s Next Move Recent flows from crypto exchanges show that BTC reserves are dwindling at a fast pace. For instance, US-based exchange Coinbase recently saw a new outflow of 7,883 BTC, raising speculations of institutions loading up on the apex digital asset before its next leg up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Elevated Unrealized Profits Without Signs Of Panic Selling – New ATH Soon? Similarly, technicals point toward BTC hitting another ATH soon. The top cryptocurrency by market cap recently broke out of a double bottom pattern on the hourly chart, fuelling hopes of a surge toward the $112,000 mark. Meanwhile, whale behavior has been mixed. While short-term whales have taken profits, long-term holders remain steadfast, showing minimal signs of selling. That said, BTC’s medium-term outlook remains overwhelmingly positive, with some researchers predicting a $200,000 price target by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $108,802, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Binary CDD is yet to reach the same peak as during the last few tops in the cryptocurrency’s price. 30-Day MA Of Bitcoin Binary CDD Is Currently Sitting Around 0.6 In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the Binary CDD for Bitcoin. The “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the total number of ‘coin days’ being reset across the network. A coin day is a quantity that one token of the cryptocurrency accumulates after having stayed dormant on the blockchain for one day. When a coin that was previously still for some number of days is moved across the network, its coin days counter naturally resets back to zero, and the coin days that it had accumulated are said to be ‘destroyed.’ Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio Surges—A Warning For Investors? Whenever the CDD registers a large spike, it’s a sign that dormant hands on the network are on the move. Generally, the long-term holders only break their silence when they plan to sell, so this kind of trend can prove to be bearish for BTC. The Binary CDD, the actual indicator of interest in the current discussion, makes it easier to identify whether the current HODLer transaction activity is significant or not when compared to the past. As its name already suggests, this metric can take on two values: 0 and 1. The Binary CDD is equal to 0 when the CDD is below the historical average and 1 when it’s above. Note that since the indicator is making a historical comparison, it adds another weighting factor to the CDD: an adjustment with respect to the total circulating supply at the time. This is done because the asset’s supply is going up with time. Now, here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Binary CDD over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the 30-day MA Bitcoin Binary CDD has been following an upward trajectory recently, implying long-term holders are potentially becoming more active. The increase in the indicator has come as BTC has started on a fresh rally that has taken its price near the all-time high (ATH). While the long-term holders tend to be resolute entities, they do still come out to take their profits during significant runs. As such, the recent trend in the 30-day MA of the Binary CDD may not be too surprising. Following the latest continuation to the rise, the metric has hit the 0.60 mark (if the fact that this value is different from the 0 and 1 of the Binary CDD is confusing, consider that this is just an average over 30 days, which would almost always be between these two extremes). Related Reading: Where’s Next Major Dogecoin Resistance? On-Chain Data Points To This As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, this value is still below the 0.80 level that the indicator breached during both the rally highs from last year, as well as during the euphoria phase of the 2021 bull run. Given this pattern, it’s possible that the current Bitcoin rally could still have room to grow, at least from the perspective of HODLer distribution. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $102,300, up over 3% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has remained outside the extreme greed zone even after the price surge above $104,000. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Still Inside Greed Territory The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among the investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: New Bitcoin Whales Sitting On 185% Higher Cost Basis Than HODLer Whales, Data Shows The metric makes use of the data of the following five factors to determine the trader mentality: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the market sentiment, the index uses a numeric scale running from zero to hundred. All values under 47 suggest the dominance of fear in the market, while those above 53 imply that of greed. Values lying between these cutoffs correspond to a net neutral mentality. Besides these three main sentiments, there are also two special regions known as the extreme greed and extreme fear. The former occurs above a value of 75, while the latter below 26. Now, here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is like: As is visible above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 70 at the moment, which suggests the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. This greedy mentality is also decently strong, as it’s only a few units away from the extreme greed territory. Earlier in the month, the trader mentality declined to a neutral level as the price surge took a pause, but with the latest continuation to the rally, the market mood has improved once more. Interestingly, though, despite Bitcoin approaching its all-time high (ATH), the investors have still not become extremely greedy. If history is to go by, this could actually play into the favor of the asset’s price. The reason behind this is that the cryptocurrency has often tended to move in a direction that’s opposite to the crowd opinion. The probability of such a contrary move taking place has only gone up the more sure the investors become of a direction, so the extreme zones, where sentiment is the strongest, is where major tops and bottoms have formed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives In The Driver’s Seat For $100,000 Rally, Data Shows The Fear & Greed Index still staying out of the extreme greed region could be an indication that an excess of hype hasn’t developed among the investors just yet, so Bitcoin could potentially have more room to run before a top. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly managed to cross beyond the $105,000 level earlier, but it seems the coin has seen a small pullback since then as its price is now back at $103,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, Bitcoin (BTC) could be preparing for its next major move. Contributor Crypto Dan highlighted that BTC is currently forming an accumulation pattern similar to those observed in 2024 – patterns that were followed by significant rallies. Bitcoin Showing Signs Of Big Rally Bitcoin has surged over 13% in the past week, signaling renewed optimism in the digital assets market. This momentum comes amid easing global tariff-related tensions, which had previously created headwinds for risk-on assets.  Alongside Bitcoin’s rise, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased substantially – from approximately $2.5 trillion on April 8 to over $3.1 trillion at the time of writing. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surpasses Realized Price Of Recent Buyers — Rally Incoming Or Double Top? Adding to the positive sentiment is BTC’s evolving technical structure. In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor outlined how BTC is forming an accumulation pattern that preceded major price rallies in 2024. The contributor shared the following chart, stating that BTC’s current movement appears to be mirroring that from January and October 2024. On both the instances, BTC entered a significant uptrend that was powered by a sharp increase in the activity of short-term holders. By “short-term holders,” the analyst refers to investors who typically hold BTC for one day to one week. In previous cycles, a sudden increase in activity from this group was followed by strong rallies – not only in BTC, but also across major altcoins. The analyst explained: Notably, this indicator has historically moved ahead of major price surges, making it a reliable signal of accumulation. If this trend continues in the short term, Bitcoin may be on track to break above $100K and enter a strong upward phase. Meanwhile, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified $97,530 as the next major resistance level. Martinez emphasized that surpassing this price point could clear the path for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs (ATH). Despite The Momentum, Concerns Persist Despite growing optimism, not all indicators support an immediate breakout. Some analysts caution that Bitcoin still faces obstacles. Notably, the 30-day Demand Momentum remains in negative territory – suggesting that recent bullish sentiment may not be fully sustainable yet. Related Reading: Bitcoin Battles Key Resistance Level – Is A Breakdown Imminent? Additionally, on-chain metrics reveal that a truly parabolic move could take more time. CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Aleman observed that while BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, indicating long-term holder confidence, there may not yet be enough pressure to trigger a full-blown supply shock. That said, one positive signal is a recent sharp rebound in Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand, which could indicate the early stages of a trend reversal. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $96,370, up 1.9% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and Tradingview.com

Amid the market volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to reclaim the $85,000-$86,000 zone despite its weekly performance. However, some analysts suggest that a breakout from the key resistance level might be around the corner. Related Reading: On-Chain Experiment Or Rug Pull? Base Faces Backlash After Unofficial Memecoin Crashes 90% Bitcoin To Resume Its Bullish Rally? Over the past week, Bitcoin has traded between the $83,000-$86,000 price range, recovering from the sub-$80,000 correction at the start of the month. Notably, the flagship crypto experienced significant volatility last week due to the ongoing trade tariff war between the US and dozens of countries. BTC’s recent recovery began after the US President Donald Trump paused the tariff on over 75 countries for 90 days, which sent BTC’s price back above the $80,000 mark. Amid the volatility, Bitcoin retested the key $78,500 as support and its four-month downtrend resistance, compressing between these two levels. According to market watcher Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin has been moving within a significant area, as it was retesting its downtrend line as well as the Daily 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Moving Average (MA), which “has been a tough price region to crack in recent weeks.” Amid Thursday’s pump, BTC is finally breaking out of its downtrend, which could lead to a surge toward the “ultimate level to break for the bulls,” the $90,000-$91,000 barrier, as he suggested that the sideways move in the mid-$80,000 region won’t continue for much longer. Nonetheless, the trader considers that the coming days might not have significant swings due to the Easter weekend, with low volumes and liquidity expected. “Likely going to be quite boring absent any major new headlines,” he asserted, adding that “we’ll see where this wants to go next week.” BTC’s Key Levels To Reclaim Analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems pointed out that Bitcoin is trapped below the 50-day EMA, which is “what separated us from a bull run resumption.” He explained that the cryptocurrency has been moving between $78,000-$95,000 since March, with the 50 EMA coinciding with the price range’s mid-zone and seemingly acting as resistance for the past week. Breaking out of the mid-range, between $85,000-$86,000 levels, could send BTC’s price above the $90,000 mark and toward the range’s high. Related Reading: Aptos (APT) To Continue Moving In ‘No Man’s Land’ – Can It Reclaim $5? According to the post, Bitcoin’s current price action resembles May 2021’s performance, before the bull run resumed. At the time, BTC reclaimed the 50 EMA on the daily chart, which “right now, just as back then, (…) has been the line in the sand between the bull and bear markets.” The analyst explained that strong spot buying pressure is necessary to break this resistance and resume BTC’s rally. “Should we finally have this spot buying pressure, and should we finally see the EMA 50 Daily being flipped, all you want next is for that liquidity wall at $87K to be properly broken,” he concluded. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $84,521, a 1.2% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price is currently down more than -22% from its all-time, displaying a series of lower highs on the daily timeframe. While the weekly and monthly time bullish, the calls for the beginning of the Bitcoin bear market are growing louder on X. Two prominent analysts have weighed in on what they believe could be the deciding factor for an extended rally—or a deeper downturn. Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy Crypto analyst Charting Guy, posting under the handle @ChartingGuy, shared a chart that places strong emphasis on the $95,000 price point for Bitcoin, noting: “yes i will flip back to fully bullish […] for that to happen BTC needs to reclaim and hold $95k, which he has stated many times […] it’s the level that was prior support for majority of February, then we rejected from it hard on March 2nd and turned it to resistance […] now, with $76.7k on March 11th being the very likely local low, we pull a fib and $95k just happens to perfectly be the 0.618 fib. you cannot make this up.” According to his analysis, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement—often called the “golden pocket”—looms large as a definitive test of bullish strength. Failing to break above and flip this zone into support, Charting Guy cautions, could lead to an extended bearish phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stays Down, But Whale Wallets Quietly Climb to 4-Month High He further explained that Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), must navigate their respective golden pockets before any real, sustained rally can begin: “if crypto and stocks can’t reclaim the golden pocket and flip it to support, and end up rejecting there instead, then i am bearish on BTC & stocks for a while.” Nevertheless, Charting Guy sees potential for a bull run in April through June: “April – June shall be bullish af imo […] BUT that extension into June is only if May is strong and not a sell in May and go away type of month […] what will determine that? how BTC & SPY both react at their respective golden pockets when they get there on this April relief rally.” If these technical barriers prove insurmountable, Charting Guy says he will exit his positions: “if this purely is just a relief rally and the charts look toppy again when we’re back at these levels late April/early May, then i will be OUT of this market.” Another crypto analyst, @wauwda, has taken a more cautious stance, noting several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500: “Every indicator is getting bearish on the HTF for BTC & SPX: Bearish Stochastic RSI cross, Bearish MACD cross, Bearish divergence RSI, MSTR lower high, Altcoins higher high … Ultimate Bull Trap.” Related Reading: Saylor’s Strategy Adds $1.9 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin To Growing Portfolio While Wauwda anticipates a relief rally—citing the potential for a bounce due to extreme bearish sentiment—he points out parallels with 2021. He lists a series of events he deems indicative of market-wide euphoria, including high-profile celebrity endorsements, big corporate plays, and meme-driven hype: “’We didn’t have euphoria yet’ … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is just a tiny part of what I wrote down.” Despite acknowledging that this cycle’s euphoria might look different from previous ones, Wauwda notes that similar warning signs appeared ahead of the 2021 market top. He also points to ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) as factors to watch, though both have shown volatile, oscillating patterns rather than a clear trend: “The thing I’m struggling with though right now is ETHBTC and BTCD since they both have been up and down only, but maybe that will change with the next leg up.” At press time, BTC traded at $84,206. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%–4.5% range – and Bitcoin reacted instantly. The pause, while widely anticipated, came with a slightly revised outlook that includes a slower timeline for future rate cuts and a notable adjustment to the central bank’s balance sheet reduction pace. According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, the Fed’s “Dot Plot” now indicates only two 25 basis-point rate cuts for this year—fewer than many market participants expected in December. Policymakers stressed that while interest rates remain in restrictive territory, the timing of actual cuts hinges on the path of economic indicators, particularly inflation and employment. However, the latest statement no longer asserts that inflation and employment are “in balance,” reflecting the Committee’s growing concern about economic uncertainty. But perhaps the most significant pivot was the Fed’s announcement that it will slow the reduction of its bond holdings, commonly known as “quantitative tightening” (QT). Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Are Back—Could This Be the Catalyst for the Next Rally? Beginning in April, the monthly runoff for government bonds will drop from $25 billion to $5 billion—a substantial downshift that many analysts consider a prelude to a more accommodative stance if economic or market conditions deteriorate. What This Means For Bitcoin Shortly after the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin rallied roughly 4–5%, briefly surpassing the USD 86,000 level. Nik Bhatia—founder of The Bitcoin Layer and author of Bitcoin Age—took to his latest video update to dissect the decision’s implications. “Bitcoin up 4% on the news that the Fed slows QT and is still committed to cutting interest rates,” Bhatia said at the start of his analysis, noting that the market had been laser-focused on whether the central bank would modify its quantitative tightening approach. Bhatia explained how the reduction of the monthly runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion can loosen liquidity constraints in the overall system: “Now the Fed is also still contracting its balance sheet, but now it will do so by only five billion a month as opposed to 25 billion a month, and that is a material change,” he said. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Isn’t Over: Cathie Wood Predicts $1.5 Million “This isn’t some, ‘Hey, we’re on the cusp of QE now just ‘cause we went from 25 to a five,’ but the first step is to get the balance sheet to stop shrinking … so that if the Fed needs to pivot, it can go quickly from 5 billion in QT a month to some modest expansion.” Bhatia underscored that such a move can fuel market risk appetite: “The market sees the Fed for what it is: it supports credit creation which expands balance sheets across the world, and that flow ends up in asset prices … some of those assets can be stocks, Bitcoin—[and] other financial assets.” Other experts are even more drastic in their assessment. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated via X: “JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.” Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pretty much agrees: “After last night, QT is effectively dead (for some time). Treasury volatility has backed right off and is now mirroring the decline in DXY from earlier this month. This is all extremely liquidity-positive.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $85,881. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In the ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s market trajectory, two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on X, underscoring the community’s divided sentiment. While one maintains that a drastic downturn remains possible, the other posits that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing a notable 87.5% probability. Bitcoin Bears In Trouble? Crypto analyst Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) posted on X and laid out two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.” He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it:“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse? In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time. “Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.” His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer’s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five “2D bars” before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself. “All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Recovery—Is the Whale Sell-Off Finally Over? He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.” To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as “peaking fear” in the market. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent: “Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are protecting their reputation […] I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Renowned macro analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal has issued a forecast that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market may stretch into 2026—well beyond most conventional expectations of a peak in 2025. In a recent presentation, Pal walked through a range of macroeconomic indicators, historical price behaviors, and liquidity metrics that he says paint a compelling picture for an extended uptrend in digital assets. Bitcoin Bull Market Depends On M2 At the heart of Pal’s thesis lies the notion of Global M2 money supply, a metric tracking the total liquidity in circulation worldwide. Pal observed that Bitcoin, along with other risk-on assets, tends to correlate closely with changes in Global M2. “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year. If that is the case, then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.” By comparing current liquidity trends to those seen in 2017—when the dollar weakened considerably and equity markets soared in US President Donald Trump’s first term—Pal argues that the macro backdrop appears similarly poised for expansion. According to him, if major economies continue easing, it may drive the next phase of explosive crypto growth. Related Reading: Inverse Head And Shoulders Breakout Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $300,000 Pal’s thesis revolves around the impact of global liquidity, particularly the role of Global M2 money supply as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and risk assets. He presented a correlation between Global M2 growth and crypto market performance, stating: “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year. If that is the case, then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.” His analysis draws parallels to 2017, when Trump’s fiscal policies and monetary easing led to a prolonged period of dollar weakness, which fueled the crypto cycle. Similar conditions are unfolding now, with expectations of rate cuts and stimulus measures. A crucial factor in Pal’s extended bull market thesis is the business cycle, which he tracks through the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, an ISM reading above 50 signals economic expansion, which correlates with Bitcoin’s price surges. He noted: “Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up […] If the ISM gets up to its normal cycle peak of somewhere between 56 and 65, that will give us the magnitude of the rise in Bitcoin.” Pal suggested that if ISM continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin’s price could exceed $300,000 or higher. However, he refrained from making precise forecasts, emphasizing that probabilities, not certainties, drive market analysis. Addressing the altcoin market, Pal maintained that Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) remain key components of his portfolio. Despite Solana’s recent drawdown of over 53%, he dismissed fears of a long-term decline: “Solana has overshot versus global M2 […]Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the cycle and Ethereum too, with Sui outperforming Solana.” His broader view on altcoins is based on risk appetite shifts as financial conditions ease. Historically, altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the latter half of the cycle when investors seek higher-beta opportunities. Pal criticized the notion that there will be no altcoin season in this cycle, stating, “That’s all f****ing nonsense.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s ‘KISS Of Death’? Arthur Hayes Warns Of Recession Before Surge Pal emphasized that large pullbacks are a feature, not a bug of crypto bull markets. He detailed past corrections, pointing out that the current cycle has seen seven 20%+ corrections while maintaining a 600% gain from the lows. He warned traders against leverage and panic selling, reinforcing his “Don’t F* This Up**” thesis: “To make the money, to unf*** your future, you’re going to have to learn to deal with volatility.” He compared the current correction to 2017, which saw multiple 30-40% pullbacks before peaking. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates that the market is the second most oversold in this cycle, suggesting a potential recovery in the coming months. Extending The Cycle To 2026 One of Pal’s most striking assertions is that the current cycle could extend into 2026 rather than peaking in 2025, as many analysts have projected. His reasoning is based on the prolonged period of economic stagnation before growth acceleration. He stated: “The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It’s starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026.” While he clarified that this is not a prediction but a working hypothesis, the implications could be significant. A longer cycle would allow for higher valuations, a sustained investment influx, and a gradual rather than explosive blow-off top. Pal reiterated that the crypto market follows a predictable pattern, with a year-long “banana zone” of exponential growth. He noted that the current correction phase aligns with past cycles and should lead to a renewed rally by April-May. “We are now in correction phase one […] Then as we go into March, April, May, we start accelerating up again into the next phase of the banana zone.” However, he warned that investors should expect another major correction before the final market top, cautioning against overleveraging and late-cycle exuberance. Summarizing his outlook, Pal urged investors to maintain perspective and resist emotional trading. He emphasized the importance of long-term vision, proper portfolio construction, and patience: “You guys need patience more than anything else and need to understand markets […] Our futures are resting on the same thing.” At press time, BTC traded at $88,617. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has been trading sideways since mid-January, moving within a tight range between its all-time high and the $97,750 support level. The market remains divided, with bulls expecting a breakout into price discovery and bears speculating that the cycle top is already in. Despite this uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to hold above critical levels, keeping investors on edge about the next major move. Related Reading: Avalanche Forms A Falling Wedge On The Daily Chart – Breakout Target Set At $56 Top analyst Ali Martinez shared key insights on X, revealing that $97,190 is one of the most important support levels for Bitcoin at the moment. Martinez emphasizes that holding above this level is crucial to sustaining the bull market and determining BTC’s price direction for the coming weeks. If Bitcoin maintains strength above this zone, it could provide the foundation for another rally toward the $110K mark and beyond. However, losing this level could result in a deeper correction, shaking market confidence. With macroeconomic conditions still playing a key role in market sentiment, traders closely watch how BTC reacts to this critical support. Whether Bitcoin can hold firm or break lower will likely define its short-term trajectory, shaping expectations for the rest of the bullish cycle. Bitcoin Facing A Crucial Test Bitcoin is at a crucial moment in its cycle, as the coming weeks will determine whether BTC can break above all-time highs and enter price discovery or if a longer consolidation—or even a correction—into lower demand levels is ahead. After weeks of sideways trading, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads, with bulls and bears battling for control of the next major move. Key metrics shared by Martinez reveal that $97,190 is one of the most important support levels for Bitcoin at the moment. This level is a crucial structural point that has provided strong demand during recent corrections.  Holding above it is vital to sustaining the bull market, as it could serve as a launchpad for BTC’s next leg up. Martinez emphasizes that if the price maintains strength above this support in the coming weeks, a new bullish phase is almost inevitable—pushing BTC into new highs and likely sparking a broader market rally. Related Reading: Chainlink Could Target $30 Once It Breaks Bullish Pattern – Top Analyst However, failure to hold above $97,190 could lead to a breakdown, triggering extended consolidation or a deeper retrace into lower demand zones. Investors and traders are closely watching how Bitcoin reacts to this level, as it could define the market’s trajectory for the next few months. Consolidation Below ATH Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $101,200 after a volatile week, with price action consolidating between all-time highs (ATH) and the crucial $100K level. Despite recent swings, Bitcoin has held strong above key structural support, signaling resilience in the face of market uncertainty. If BTC stays above $100K in the coming days, a push above ATH is almost certain, as demand remains strong at these levels. The market is watching closely for a breakout confirmation, which would require BTC to clear the $106,000 level with strength. A successful move above this resistance would likely trigger a massive rally, sending Bitcoin into uncharted territory. However, losing the $100K support could change the short-term outlook, signaling a possible correction into lower demand zones. Such a move could lead to extended consolidation or a deeper retrace, allowing new liquidity to enter the market before another bullish push. Related Reading: Cardano Consolidates Within A Symmetrical Triangle – Expert Sees A 40% Move Once It Breaks For now, BTC remains at a critical level, with investors and traders closely monitoring whether bulls can sustain momentum and drive prices higher—or if a temporary pullback is on the horizon. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation’s leadership in digital assets. Could 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Trend? Hougan’s note begins with an explanation of the so-called “four-year cycle,” where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Preparing For A February Rally? Analyst Says New High Is Two Weeks Away These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs. Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the “Mainstream Cycle,” emerging out of 2022’s “massive deleveraging” caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF. “Bitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance among both retail and institutional players. The most striking component of Hougan’s analysis is his examination of last week’s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a “national priority,” but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto. Related Reading: DeepSeek Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Peak At $500,000 – Here’s When “Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it’s making me wonder,” Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets. Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate. Hougan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there’s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?” While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products—he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued. However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. With the industry’s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. “As for now, it’s full steam ahead,” he concluded. “The crypto train is leaving the station.” At press time, BTC traded at $105,275. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has recently formed a crossover that has historically been bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin MPI Has Seen Its 90-Day MA Cross Above The 365-Day As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin MPI momentum has recently given a bullish signal for Bitcoin. The “MPI” refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the total miner outflow and its 365-day moving average (MA). Related Reading: $54 Million In Dogecoin Exits Binance As Price Crashes 9%: Sign Of Buying? The miner outflow here is naturally the amount of the cryptocurrency (in USD) that is being transferred out of the wallets associated with the network’s validators. When the value of the MPI is high, it means the miners are making more outflows than usual. Generally, the main reason why this cohort transfers tokens out of its wallets is for selling-related purposes, so this kind of trend can be bearish for the asset’s price. On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests the miners are withdrawing a lower number of coins than the average for the past year. Such a trend could be a sign that this group is preferring to hold for now. In the context of the current topic, the Bitcoin MPI itself isn’t of interest, but rather a derivative indicator known as the MPI Momentum. Like other momentum metrics, this one also involves two MAs: 90-day and 365-day. Below is a chart for the BTC MPI Momentum over the past few years. As displayed in the graph, the 90-day MA of the Bitcoin MPI recently broke above the 365-day one. This suggests miner selling has been gaining positive momentum. While this may sound bad, the cryptocurrency has actually historically benefited from the pattern. From the chart, it’s apparent that the crossover generally signals the start of an extended bullish period for the asset’s price. The last time that the two MAs of the MPI displayed this trend before the latest instance was back in December 2022. Related Reading: Solana Plunges 12%, But This Pattern Could Mean Decline Isn’t Over Yet So far since the most recent crossover, the 90-day and 365-day MAs have continued to diverge away from each other, implying that the momentum in the metric remains strong. Bitcoin has usually only hit tops when the 90-day has gained a large amount of distance over the 365-day. Thus, considering the current placement of the two lines, it’s possible that the cryptocurrency has some room remaining in this cycle, before miner selloff leads to a top. BTC Price Bitcoin fell towards the $98,000 mark during yesterday’s crash, but the asset appears to have found a rebound since then as it’s now back at $102,500. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed the level Bitcoin would have to rise to if it has to reach the historical top zone in this pricing model. Bitcoin Hasn’t Surpassed Last MVRV Pricing Band Yet In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the extreme euphoria threshold of the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands. The MVRV Pricing Bands is a pricing model for the cryptocurrency that’s based on the MVRV Ratio. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Near $690 Million As Bitcoin, Ethereum Crash The “MVRV Ratio” is a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of how the value held by the Bitcoin investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put in (the realized cap). When the metric is greater than 1, the investors are holding more value than their initial investment, meaning that they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the market as a whole is underwater. Historically, the holders being in too much profit has often signaled overheated conditions for Bitcoin, due to the fact that mass selloffs with the motive of profit-taking become probable in such conditions. Similarly, the dominance of loss has led to bottoms, as there aren’t many sellers left during these periods. The MVRV Pricing Bands aim to capture this relationship. It defines certain price levels for the cryptocurrency that correspond to important levels in the MVRV Ratio. Here is the chart for the model shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in these Bitcoin pricing bands over the last several years: From the graph, it’s visible that the 0.8 pricing band, which is where the MVRV Ratio assumes a value equal to 0.8, has been around where bear market bottoms have formed for the asset. Right now, BTC is far above this level, situated at $33,100. The coin’s price is also at a significant distance from the 1.0 level of $41,300, which corresponds to the cost basis of the average address or investor on the network. The pricing bands that BTC is currently trading under are the 2.4 and 3.2 levels, located at $99,300 and $132,400, respectively. The former of these has historically served as a signal that the bull market is getting heated. Related Reading: Less Than 1% Of Bitcoin Investors In Loss After BTC Reclaims $100,000 BTC can stay inside this zone for a while, but once the market cap surpasses the 3.2 level, it becomes very likely that some type of top is going to be hit soon. The chart below illustrates just how rare it is for the asset to trade in the region above 3.2: “BTC price has historically spent only ~5% of trading days above the 3.2 MVRV level,” notes the analytics firm. “This highlights how rare such peaks are and reinforces why it’s often considered an “extreme euphoria” zone.” So far, Bitcoin hasn’t been able to surpass this line in the current cycle. If the past bull markets are anything to go by, the top would only occur above this level, which would imply more room still left for the asset to run in the current cycle. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the pattern would actually hold this time or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $93,400, down more than 3% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has faced significant selling pressure above the $100K mark, leaving the market leader struggling to regain momentum. After a stellar rally, BTC is now testing its ability to push past critical resistance, as traders and investors remain cautious about its short-term trajectory. Related Reading: BTC Dominance Breakdown Confirmed – Metrics Support A 2025 Altseason […]

As 2025 begins, the crypto market shows signs of recovering from the late December correction, setting an optimistic tone for the year ahead. Bitcoin, the market leader, has demonstrated remarkable resilience by holding strong support at $92,000 despite recent selling pressure. This stability has renewed investor confidence, with many eyeing a potential continuation of its […]

An analyst has explained how the age of the average Bitcoin token has only been getting older during the recent bull run, something that could be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin Average Coin Age Has Been Trending Up Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has talked about the recent trend in the Average Coin Age for Bitcoin. The “Average Coin Age” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of how long the average BTC token has been staying dormant for. A coin is said to be dormant when it sits still inside an address without being involved in any sort of transaction activity. The longer the coin stays in this state, the more it ‘ages’ up. Related Reading: XRP Jumps 4%, Whale Reacts With $69 Million Coinbase Deposit Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Average Coin Age over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the 30-day MA of the Bitcoin Average Coin Age has seen some sharp spikes this year, but also some equally steep declines. This would suggest that the investors have been participating in some phases of HODLing, but they have also not been shying away from taking some profits. On the whole, however, the holders have shown notable resolve, as the 365-day MA of the indicator has been in a constant state of uptrend since the end of the 2022 bear market. Statistically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the fact that the investors have been increasingly preferring to keep their coins dormant can be a bullish sign for the cryptocurrency’s price. Interestingly, this trend didn’t develop during the 2021 bull market, as even though the 30-day MA of the Average Coin Age saw a period of uptrend, the 365-day MA moved down throughout the year instead. This could imply the average investor has become smarter this cycle. In the short-term, the 30-day MA of the indicator has been rapidly climbing, which implies the Bitcoin market is currently in one of the phases of active accumulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Greed: More Cooldown Needed For Bottom? In some other news, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has shared an update on how the 5+ years old BTC supply is looking right now. From the chart, it’s apparent that this part of the Bitcoin supply has been on the rise recently. Following the latest jump, nearly a third of the asset’s tokens in circulation haven’t been involved in a transaction since more than five years ago. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a 3% drawdown during the last 24 hours that has taken its price to $95,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

Here’s what the historical trend of the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio suggests regarding whether the current bull run is over or not. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Could Hint At Where BTC Is In Current Cycle In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju shared a chart showcasing the past pattern in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio refers to a popular on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of how the value held by the BTC investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put into the asset (the realized cap). Related Reading: XRP Jumps 4%, Whale Reacts With $69 Million Coinbase Deposit When the value of the ratio is greater than 1, it means the investors as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it is under the mark, implying the dominance of loss in the market. The version of the MVRV Ratio posted by Young Ju isn’t the ordinary one, but rather a modified form called the “True MVRV.” This variation takes into account for only the data of the coins that were involved in some kind of transaction activity during the past seven years. Coins that are older than seven years can be assumed to be lost forever, either due to being forgotten or because of having their wallet keys misplaced. As such, the True MVRV, which excludes these coins that are probable to never return back into circulation, can provide a more accurate picture of the sector than the normal version of the metric. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the history of the cryptocurrency: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin True MVRV has climbed to relatively high levels during this bull run. This implies the average investor is carrying notable profits. Historically, the higher the holder gains get, the more likely they become to participate in a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking. Thus, whenever the MVRV Ratio rises high, a top can become probable for BTC. From the chart, it’s visible that the tops during the past cycles occurred when the indicator surpassed a specific line. So far, the metric hasn’t come close to retesting this level in the latest epoch. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Greed: More Cooldown Needed For Bottom? According to the CryptoQuant founder, the reason the market cap hasn’t overheated relative to the realized cap yet is that there is still $7 billion in capital inflows entering the Bitcoin market every week. If the current cycle is going to show anything similar to the previous ones, then the True MVRV being high, but not extremely high, could potentially suggest room for BTC left in the current bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced its Christmas rally as its value is now back down to $95,700. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) tries the $100,000 support zone after falling to $98,000 during the recent market shakeout. According to some market watchers, the flagship crypto’s recent performance resembles its December 2023 trajectory, suggesting that BTC might see a massive breakout soon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Peak Between $160,000 And $290,000 If These Historical Patterns Repeat – Report Bitcoin Price Mirrors December 2023’s Performance On Wednesday, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market saw a massive correction after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25-basis-point rate cut and signaled fewer cuts than expected in 2025. The flagship cryptocurrency dropped 9.2% from its $108,135 all-time high (ATH), briefly falling below the $99,000 on support before recovering. BTC quickly climbed back to $100,000, surging 2% on Thursday morning to the $102,000 resistance. After the dump, crypto trader Follis suggested that this month’s price action mirrored BTC’s 2023 trajectory. The trader stated that Bitcoin was “repeating the December playbook from last year,” forecasting that a pump to a new high is coming soon. Per the chart, BTC moved within the $40,000-$45,000 price range before breaking out in January 2024. The breakout was followed by a significant 20% correction to the previous consolidation zone, briefly dipping below this range. However, Bitcoin reclaimed the breakout levels in the following weeks and surged another 47% to its March ATH of $73,000. If the largest crypto by market cap continues to follow this “playbook,” then its price could see a correction below $88,000 by year-end before resuming its bullish run to new highs. Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that BTC’s performance in Q4 resembles its Q4 2023 price action. The analyst stated that Bitcoin will likely continue the “slow hoppy grind up before the actual breakout” happens. He recommended “zooming out” as the short-term chart “doesn’t look pretty” but noted that BTC’s price is still “trending up slowly.” Analyst Warns Of BTC’s Daily Close Other analysts suggested that the coming hours will be decisive for BTC’s short-term performance. Rekt Capital asserted that holding the $100,000 support was crucial, as failing to maintain this level could send Bitcoin below the previous key resistance of $98,000. Moreover, a daily close above the $101,000 mark would be necessary to prevent this range from turning into resistance again. The analyst emphasized that “doing so could kickstart a chain of events where BTC starts to lose support level by level.” Related Reading: Sentiment For Ethereum Hits 1-year Low, Analyst Says A Massive Run Is Coming He added that a close above this level would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook. Previously, the analyst explained that Bitcoin is amid the first “Price Discovery Correction,” which tends to happen between the 6thand 8th week of BTC’s post-halving “Parabolic Upside Phase”: As a result, over the next 3 weeks or so, I am going to be increasingly cautious about retest attempts, and given BTC’s history at this point in the cycle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see key levels get invalidated. However, he emphasized that the “Second Price Discovery Uptrend” will follow the big correction. As of this writing, Bitcoin has dipped below the $100,000 support level, registering a 5.1% 24-hour drop to the $98,900 mark. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com