As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a crucial level after breaking down of a bearish pattern, an analyst has suggested that the flagship crypto’s final correction before the next bull market could start in the coming days. Related Reading: Ethereum Could Hit $40,000 And Beat Bitcoin, Standard Chartered Says Start Of ‘Final Washout’ Is Days Away In a Monday analysis, market observer Ali Martinez affirmed that Bitcoin’s final leg down before the next bull run could be around the corner based on the flagship crypto’s past cycle’s behavior. The analyst explained that historically, the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has marked the “‘absolute bottom’ of every major cycle since 2014.” Over the past 12 years, whenever these two lines crossed on the three-day chart, it has consistently signaled the start of the “final washout” before the next bull market begins. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin had already declined by 50%-72% from its cycle peaks when the 50- and 200-SMAs crossed. 23-33 days after the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction, retracing another 45%-52% before bottoming. In 2022, “another lower low formed 156 days later, completing the bear structure and opening the door for the next bull market.” Now, Bitcoin has already seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, while the SMAs crossed over on February 27. “As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal,” the analyst detailed, adding that “If history ‘rhymes,’ we are likely entering the Final Accumulation Window of this cycle within the next 3 to 6 days.” Martinez noted that while the final leg down could be intimidating, history has shown that the crossover is the “Golden Opportunity” for long-term investors. Based on its 40%-50% “resets,” the analyst suggested two main accumulation zones: the $40,000 and $30,000 levels. Structurally, this setup has historically aligned with the last major downside move before a generational macro bottom forms. (…) The countdown to the next vertical move has begun. Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown Confirmed? After closing the week around the $66,000 mark, Bitcoin has surged to the $67,000-$68,000 area to retest a crucial level from below. The flagship crypto has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 for nearly two months, developing a bearish formation during this period. Notably, BTC has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, retesting the formation’s lower and upper boundaries multiple times since early February. Following last week’s correction, the cryptocurrency retraced over 10% from its recent highs to a four-week low of $65,000 on Sunday. Related Reading: The Last Time Bitcoin Sentiment Was This Bad Was 2022, But There Was A Silver Lining Amid this performance, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of its bear flag formation, risking a second leg down toward lower levels. Analyst Crypto Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently retesting the formation from below after today’s bounce, which could confirm that the pattern’s support has turned into resistance if BTC price is rejected. In addition, the market watcher pointed out that the cryptocurrency’s bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. “Is this time different? Doubt it,” Jelle concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout. However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase. Bitcoin Recovery In Sight? Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month. Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis. When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend. Potential Upside Emerges The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000. Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Astronomer, known by the handle @astronomer_zero on X, has put forth a potentially compelling bottom signal for Bitcoin, which hinges on the electricity costs incurred by miners to produce BTC. According to him, this particular metric has historically served as a reliable indicator for identifying optimal buying opportunities within Bitcoin’s price cycles. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? The analysis titled “BTC Miners electricity cost, a 100% accurate bottom signal,” leverages data to illustrate a scenario where the cost of Bitcoin production dips below its market price, suggesting a pivotal moment for potential investors. Astronomer elaborated on his methodology and findings by referencing his previous predictions which successfully pinpointed market tops, notably a 30% drop from a $70,000 peak, which was guided by similarly data-driven signals. Related Reading: Is Another Bitcoin Crash Coming? Top Analyst Highlights Alarming Trend! Astronomer’s current focus on the cost of mining stems from its significant implications on Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. Despite the halving events designed to reduce the reward for mining Bitcoin, there remains a 0.84% annual inflation in its supply, equating to roughly $10 billion worth of Bitcoin entering the market each year. This is equivalent to the total holdings of significant corporate investors like MicroStrategy, indicating a substantial influx of Bitcoin from miners, who are inclined to sell gradually to sustain their operations. However, the current market conditions, as described by Astronomer, have reached a rare state where the market price of Bitcoin has fallen below the average weighted cost of electricity required to mine it. This situation typically constrains miners from selling their holdings at a profit, thus potentially reducing the sell pressure on the market. “Not only does that mean that the miners can’t sell their BTC for a profit. It also means that it is simply cheaper to just log into a CEX and buy 1 Bitcoin, instead of going through the pain of mining 1 Bitcoin. So not only does this make the miners (the people controlling BTC) not want to sell, it also makes them want to buy, because it is cheaper to just buy instead of mine them,” Astronomer suggests. Related Reading: $170 Million In Crypto Longs Bite The Dust As Bitcoin Plunges Under $57,000 This shift not only impacts the selling behavior of miners but also their buying strategies, contributing to a decrease in supply pressure and possibly triggering upward price movements. Astronomer supports his claim by pointing out that historically, when the cost of production fell below the market price, it has consistently led to substantial price recoveries. He detailed instances from the recent past, including notable dips in March 2023 when Bitcoin hit $19,500, November 2022 at $16,500, June 2022 at $18,000, May 2020 at $8,900, March 2020 at $4,700, and November 2018 when it bottomed out at $3,500. Each of these moments was followed by robust bull runs, underlining the potential reliability of this signal. “How many times? 17 out of 17 times, it meant that price was at levels that, according to history (with high statistical significance), you would want to buy, or would miss and regret it for a very long time,” the analyst adds. Currently, with the production cost of Bitcoin, according to Capriole Investment’s data, standing at $60,711 and the price lingering at $56,713, the conditions described by Astronomer are manifesting yet again. This juxtaposition poses a critical question to the market: Is now the time to buy? While Astronomer’s analysis is backed by historical data and detailed market observation, he remains cautiously optimistic about the outcomes, encapsulated in his closing remark, “Will this time be different? Maybe.” At press time, BTC traded at $56,804. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has dipped into the bottom region, which may be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Seen A Sharp Decline Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is giving a bottom signal for the third time in 2024. The “NVT ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. When the value of this metric is high, it means the asset’s value (that is, the market cap) is high when compared to the network’s ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend could imply the BTC price is overvalued. Related Reading: XRP Sharks & Whales Push Bags To ATH As Price Rockets 19% On the other hand, the low indicator suggests the market cap is low compared to the transfer volume, so the cryptocurrency’s price could have room for growth. In the context of the current topic, a modified version of the NVT ratio is the actual indicator of relevance: the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend of the metric with its long-term one to determine the appearances of local tops and bottoms in the NVT ratio. More particularly, the 10-day moving average (MA) stands for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the over the past few months: In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two regions of the NVT Golden Cross that have historically been relevant for cryptocurrency. At values above 2.2, the asset can be assumed to be close to the top, as here, the short-term trend of the NVT ratio has significantly surpassed its long-term one. Similarly, the zone under -1.6 is where bottoms can probably form. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has observed a plunge recently as the Bitcoin price itself has crashed down. The metric has entered the latter region, suggesting that the coin may have become underpriced. This is the third time that the NVT Golden Cross has breached this territory this year, with the first instance occurring back in January, during the price drawdown that had followed the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. This period of the asset being undervalued was followed by a rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Jumps 39% From Crash Low, But Is This Rally Sustainable? The second instance of the indicator entering the bottoming zone was last month, with the low paving the way for a rally toward $70,000. Given that both of these occurrences proved bullish for Bitcoin, it remains to be seen where this third one leads. BTC Price Bitcoin has furthered its recovery during the past day as its price has now broken back above the $58,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com