CryptoQuant’s research head has pointed out how demand to absorb Bitcoin at higher prices has been low recently, potentially explaining the asset’s decline. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Metric Has Turned Red Recently In a new post on X, Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has looked at recent BTC market dynamics from a different angle. “Instead of looking at Bitcoin long-term holder distribution/spending, I like to look at the other side of the trade,” noted Moreno. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Maps Out Dream Ethereum Scenario To $8,000 Long-term holders here refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for a period longer than 155 days. This cohort is considered to include the high-conviction “HODLers” of the market, so distribution from them is often something on-chain analysts watch out for. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in a separate X post, Bitcoin long-term holders have participated in a significant amount of selling during the past month. This isn’t the signal Moreno focuses on, however. Instead, the CryptoQuant head checks for whether there is enough demand coming in to absorb the supply that the long-term holders are selling at higher prices. An indicator that can be useful for tracking this is the Apparent Demand, which compares the difference between BTC’s production and changes in its long-term inventory. “Production” is the amount that miners are issuing on the network every day, while the “inventory” is the supply that has been inactive for over a year. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Apparent Demand has been red on the 30-day during the last few weeks, implying a negative short-term demand for the cryptocurrency. “Is there enough demand to absorb the supply at higher prices?” asked the analyst. “Since a few weeks ago the answer is no, and that is why we see prices declining.” The story is a bit different when it comes to the 1-year Apparent Demand, which has actually seen some growth recently, but the pace of its rise has been slow, and its value is still below the 90-day simple moving average (SMA). Related Reading: Bitcoin At Key Retest: Bounce Or $98,000 Next? The last time Bitcoin saw an extended phase of negative 30-day Apparent Demand was during the bearish phase in the first half of the year. It now remains to be seen whether something similar will follow this time as well, or if demand will bounce back. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,900, down 9% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how Bitcoin losing $108,500 could lead to a deeper correction, if the past pattern is to go by. Bitcoin Is At Risk Of Losing The 0.85 Quantile Level In its latest weekly report, analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model. This model maps price levels according to the amount of BTC supply that would be lost if the cryptocurrency were to trade at its current price today. There are three supply “quantiles” involved in the indicator: 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75, corresponding to levels where 5%, 15%, and 25% of the supply would be held at a loss, respectively. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For A Rebound? This Metric Says More Pain Needed First Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the different Bitcoin supply quantiles over the last few years. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin surged above the 0.95 quantile during its price rally earlier in the month, as the supply in profit approached the 100% mark during the new all-time high (ATH). With the recent bearish action, however, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the line and is now trading around the 0.85 quantile situated at $108,600. Thus, it would appear that about 15% of the BTC supply is in the red at the moment. Bitcoin has already faced dips below this mark, so it’s possible that the coin may be at risk of losing the line. “Historically, failure to hold this threshold has signalled structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile,” explained the analytics firm. BTC last saw such a decline to the 0.75 quantile during the consolidation period in mid-2024. Currently, this level is equivalent to $97,500. It now remains to be seen whether the asset can maintain above the 0.85 quantile, and if not, whether a retest of the 0.75 quantile will take place. The 0.95 quantile isn’t the only level that Bitcoin has lost during the recent drawdown; its price has also dropped below the average cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs) located at $113,100. STHs here refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to represent the fragile side of the market, prone to making panic moves during times of volatility. With BTC dropping below the cost basis of the cohort, its members are now underwater. “Historically, this structure often precedes the onset of a mid-term bearish phase, as weaker hands begin to capitulate,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross In an X post, the analytics firm has shared a chart that puts into perspective the net unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin STHs right now. BTC Price Bitcoin hasn’t been able to sustain a recovery recently as its price is still trading around $109,100. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the loss margin of Bitcoin traders is only halfway through the way to the boundary that signaled rebounds in the last two years. Bitcoin Traders Are About 5% Underwater At The Moment In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how Bitcoin tends to rebound when the Profit/Loss Margin of the Bitcoin traders falls under -12%. The Profit/Loss Margin refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of profit or loss that the BTC investors are carrying right now. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin on the blockchain to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous price for any token was less than the current spot price, then it’s considered to be carrying a profit equal to the difference between the two prices. Similarly, tokens of the opposite type fall into the loss category. The Profit/Loss Margin calculates the net unrealized profit or loss (as a percentage) that investors as a whole are carrying. In the context of the current topic, the version of the metric that’s of interest specifically tracks this margin for the “traders,” investors who have been holding their coins since between 1 and 3 months ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Profit/Loss Margin of the traders, as well as its 30-day simple moving average (SMA), over the last couple of years: As is visible in the above graph, the Profit/Loss Margin of the Bitcoin traders has witnessed a plunge into the negative territory recently as BTC’s price has gone through its bearish action. Currently, the 1 to 3 months old BTC buyers are sitting about 5% underwater. The analyst has pointed out that BTC has tended to find rebounds when these holders have been under a notable amount of pressure during the last two years. The cutoff for this distress threshold, however, lies at -12%, a level that the trader Profit/Loss Margin is still to breach under. Related Reading: Bitcoin Newbie Whales Now Sitting On $6.9 Billion In Losses, Most Since 2023 It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will be able to find a bottom in the near future, or if one will only happen after traders experience a similar degree of pain as the previous lows. In another X post, Martinez has highlighted that $119,750 could be a crucial mark for Bitcoin to reclaim, as it represents a key resistance level in the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, a pricing model for BTC based on standard deviations of the popular MVRV Ratio. “Failing to reclaim it could trigger a move down to $97,130 or even $74,500,” noted the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin’s latest recovery was quite short-lived as its value is already back to $108,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has seen “buy the dip” mentions spike on social media after the price crash, but Santiment warns this could be a contrarian signal. Social Media Users Are Calling To Buy The Bitcoin Dip In a new Insight post, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the market has been reacting to the latest plunge in the Bitcoin price. “One of the first things we like to look for is a sign of retailers showing enthusiasm toward buying the dip,” notes Santiment. The indicator cited by the analytics firm is the “Social Volume,” which measures the total amount of posts/messages/threads appearing on the major social media platforms that make unique mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Here’s The Boundary Bitcoin Bulls Must Defend To Save Rally Santiment has filtered the Social Volume for Bitcoin-related keywords and terms pertaining to calls for “buy the dip.” Below is a chart showing the trend in the metric over the past month. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume has spiked for these terms, indicating that interest in buying the dip has surged among social media users. At the current value, dip-buying calls are at their highest in 25 days. While this could sound like a signal that a rebound may be coming soon for the cryptocurrency, history has had many examples of the contrary. “Prices typically move the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations,” explains the analytics firm. Considering this, the dip-buying hype could actually be a sign that more pain may be ahead for BTC before the bottom can actually be in. “Once the crowd stops feeling optimistic, and they begin to sell their bags at a loss, this is typically the time to strike with your dip buys,” says Santiment. Another gauge for market sentiment is through the Binance Funding Rate, which is a metric that keeps track of the periodic fee that derivatives traders are exchanging between each other on the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Signals ‘Fear’ As Price Falls To $112,000 The indicator turned sharp red just ahead of the latest plummet in the Bitcoin price, indicating that short positions became dominant on Binance. After the decline, however, traders changed their tune as the metric switched back to being green. This trend would suggest that investors are hoping Bitcoin would rebound soon. “Ideally, for a notable price bounce to occur, we need to see a sustained period of shorts outpacing longs,” notes the analytics firm. As such, this could be another indicator to keep an eye on, as a flip into the negative for an extended phase may pave the way toward a bottom. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to make recovery from its crash so far as its price continues to trade around $112,700. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is entering a fragile stage after days of selling pressure and uncertainty pushed the price into consolidation around the $110,000 level. Bulls are working to defend this key area, but momentum has clearly faded. The market now finds itself in a holding pattern, with investors cautious about whether Bitcoin will stabilize or break lower in the sessions ahead. Related Reading: BNB Chain Surpasses 650M Unique Addresses – Binance Adoption Continues Despite the weakness, there are no clear signals yet of a deeper correction. Historically, retracements within ongoing bull markets often serve as resets rather than trend reversals, but the pressure on Bitcoin has nonetheless sparked debate about its short-term direction. Holding above current levels is becoming increasingly important, as failure to do so could shift sentiment further in favor of the bears. Top analyst Axel Adler described the current environment as a neutral-bearish base, meaning flows and price action lack the conviction needed for a decisive bullish push. Until stronger demand emerges, Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to be limited to technical bounces rather than sustained rallies. Bitcoin Stuck In Neutral-Bearish Base According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current structure remains fragile as both price and derivative flows sit below 50, signaling weakness across critical indicators. Adler emphasizes that while short-term rebounds are possible, the market lacks the conviction required for a sustained uptrend. With taker flows still negative and weak, any recovery from present levels is likely to be a mean-reversion bounce toward $113K, aligning with the Fair Value and mid-30-day range, rather than the beginning of a new bullish phase. This environment suggests that risk appetite remains absent, leaving the market vulnerable to further tests of lower boundaries. Adler notes that unless flows shift meaningfully, price rallies will likely remain capped and quickly fade as selling pressure reemerges. The nearest bullish setup would require stabilization of flows that could push BTC toward the $113K–$115K region, a technical recovery zone that would ease immediate bearish sentiment but still fall short of confirming a regime shift. For a true change in market structure, Adler points to two key thresholds: Flow >55 and Price Index >50. Only when both conditions are met will Bitcoin have the foundation for a stronger, trend-confirming rally. Until then, the market faces an elevated risk of repeated retests of support zones, with traders closely monitoring whether BTC can hold above $110K or slip further into correction territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Exchange Inflows Overshadow Stablecoin Demand – Details BTC Holding the Line Above $110K Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $110K–$111K zone, showing resilience after weeks of sharp selling pressure. The chart highlights how BTC has bounced from recent lows near $108K but still struggles to reclaim higher momentum. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance, capping the upside attempts and reflecting waning bullish strength. Despite the pullback from the $123K all-time high, the structure remains intact above the 200-day moving average near $101K, which has consistently served as a long-term support. The current price action shows a market caught in balance: bulls are defending demand, but bears maintain pressure as rallies face rejection around the $112K level. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Spikes As Whales Add 260K ETH In 24 Hours The flat trajectory of the 100-day moving average reinforces the consolidation phase, suggesting that a decisive breakout is needed to confirm direction. If Bitcoin closes above $113K in the short term, it could set up a retest of $118K, the mid-range level that has acted as both support and resistance. Failure to hold the $110K level could expose BTC to repeated tests of $108K and, ultimately, the psychological $105K zone. For now, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on whether buyers can stabilize flows and absorb ongoing selling pressure. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve has witnessed a spike recently, a sign that could be bearish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Has Hit A Multi-Month High In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Exchange Reserve of Bitcoin. The “Exchange Reserve” refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the total amount of the cryptocurrency that is sitting on the wallets attached to centralized exchanges. When the value of the metric goes up, it means the investors are making net deposits of the asset to these platforms. Generally, one of the main reasons why holders would transfer their coins into the custody of exchanges is for selling-related purposes, so this kind of trend can have bearish consequences for the BTC price. Related Reading: Toncoin (TON) Heading For A 50% Price Move, Analyst Explains Why On the other hand, the indicator witnessing a decline suggests investors are taking out a net number of tokens from the exchanges. Such a trend can be a sign that the holders want to hold their BTC into the long term, which can naturally be bullish for the asset’s value. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve over the history of the cryptocurrency: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve peaked in late 2024 and saw a reversal to a downtrend, indicating that investors switched to net withdrawals. The decline in the metric was persistent, but very recently, another turnaround has finally occurred, with the indicator shooting up instead. Its value has now reached the 3.383 million BTC mark, which is the highest that it has been in a few months. “This signals a shift in trader behavior,” notes Maartunn. “More coins moving to exchanges often precedes increased selling pressure.” The deposit spree from the investors has come alongside a period of bearish action in the Bitcoin price. It now remains to be seen whether these exchange inflows would extend the drawdown. Related Reading: Bitcoin Finds Support At Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, But For How Long? Speaking of the price decline, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how this plunge compares against past ones in terms of the BTC supply in loss. As displayed in the chart, only 9% of the Bitcoin supply is in loss following the price drawdown. The maximum loss among these underwater coins is also currently just 10%. As Glassnode explains, In contrast, the local bottom of this cycle saw >25% of supply at up to 23% losses, and global bear markets have reached >50% supply with up to 78% losses. This dip remains relatively shallow. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $111,200, up 2% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin experienced heightened volatility on Friday, briefly dipping to a local low of around $114,700 before stabilizing within a tight consolidation range. The price remains capped below the psychological $120,000 mark, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war that has intensified speculation across the market. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin is holding key support, suggesting resilience in the current bullish structure. Related Reading: TRON Drops Q2 Report: Revenue, USDT Dominance Lead Multi-Quarter Highs According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, this week stands out as one of the most aggressive selling periods of the current bull cycle. Adler notes that only 12 weeks—about 7.3% of the entire cycle—have shown equal or greater selling pressure. This context highlights just how intense the recent market activity has been, with significant profit-taking from investors but no full breakdown in price. The combination of strong selling and price stability has introduced a high level of uncertainty. Market participants are watching closely for confirmation of either a deeper correction or a renewed push to break the $120K barrier. As the week closes, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its consolidation range could determine the pace and direction of the next major move in this cycle. Bitcoin Holds Strong Amid Heavy Selling Adler highlighted that this week ranks among the top 7% of the most extreme in terms of selling volume during the current Bitcoin bull cycle. Despite the intense selling pressure, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience, recovering to $117,000 by week’s end. This rebound is seen as a positive signal, reflecting bullish strength in the face of aggressive distribution. While Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range, its dominance is starting to weaken relative to Ethereum and other major altcoins. This shift has caught the attention of analysts who now view this week as a pivotal moment. A continued decrease in Bitcoin dominance paired with growing strength in altcoins could mark the beginning of the long-anticipated altseason—a period where capital rotates from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies, driving strong gains across the sector. Still, Bitcoin’s recent recovery and consolidation above key support suggest that its bullish momentum may not be over. If buyers continue to defend the current range, BTC could be gearing up for another leg higher, putting pressure on shorts and reigniting market confidence. Related Reading: $4B Increase In Bitcoin Open Interest Fueled By Whale Transfers To Exchanges – Details BTC Retests Resistance After Strong Recovery Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $117,867 on the 4-hour chart after recovering sharply from the $115,724 support level. This area has proven to be a critical short-term demand zone, with bulls stepping in aggressively to defend it following a recent dip. The price is now pressing against the 100-period SMA ($117,822), attempting to reclaim this level as support. The structure of the chart shows BTC remains locked in a well-defined consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077. This week’s retest of the lower boundary and subsequent bounce signals continued interest from buyers, despite strong selling pressure earlier in the week. Volume remains elevated, suggesting active market participation during the recent recovery. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Accumulate Over $4.1B In ETH In Two Weeks – Details The key to watch now is whether BTC can flip the 100 SMA and hold above $118,000. If confirmed, the next major test will be the upper range resistance at $122,077. A clean breakout above this level could set the stage for new all-time highs. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted the $97,000 to $98,000 zone as an important one for Bitcoin. Here’s why. Bitcoin CBD Suggests Build Up Of Supply In This Range In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about a potentially significant zone for Bitcoin based on the Cost Basis Distribution. The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) is an indicator that measures the amount of the BTC supply that investors last purchased or transferred at the various price levels. As is visible in the above graph, there is a dense supply zone located between $97,000 to $98,000. Generally, investors are quite sensitive to retests of their cost basis, so a large amount of them (or alternatively, a few large holders) having their acquisition level inside a narrow range could make retests of it significant for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin STHs Capitulate: 14,700 BTC Moved To Exchanges At Loss When the mood in the market is bullish, holders can react to retests of their cost basis from above by buying more. They may do so believing that the same level would end up proving profitable again in the future and the retrace is just a ‘dip.’ The cryptocurrency suffered a plunge yesterday and nearly touched this region. Since then, however, things have turned around for the asset and it has gained some distance over it once more. In the event that the decline does continue, which may not be too unexpected given the volatile geopolitical situation at the moment, the zone could end up acting as the next true pivot for Bitcoin, according to the analytics firm. While the CBD tells us where the cryptocurrency’s supply is concentrated, it doesn’t contain any information about who bought or sold at those price levels. Glassnode’s behavioral cohorts, investor groups divided on the basis of their behavior, solve this problem. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin supply held by these holder cohorts over the past few years: There are five of these behavior groups. First Buyers (green) include the investors who are buying Bitcoin for the very first time. As displayed in the chart, the supply of this group has been on the rise, indicating fresh demand has been coming in. Momentum Buyers (blue) are those that capitalize on market momentum by buying during uptrends. On the opposite spectrum are the Conviction Buyers (purple), who buy despite falling prices. Finally, there are the Loss Sellers (red) and Profit Takers (yellow), who correspond to investors exiting at a loss and profit, respectively. During the past couple of weeks, the former cohort has seen an increase of 29%, a sign that weak hands have been capitulating. Related Reading: Consolidation Takes Its Toll: Bitcoin Investors No Longer Greedy That said, the analytics firm has noted, “Conviction Buyers also increased, suggesting sentiment isn’t collapsing. Some are cutting losses – others are actively lowering their cost basis.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,900, down more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales holding since between three and five years ago have come alive to move a large number of tokens. Bitcoin HODLer Whales Have Broken Their Silence Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about how some old Bitcoin investors have shown movement recently. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Spent Output Age Bands” (SOAB), which tracks the transaction activity related to a given ‘age band.’ An age band defines a time-range during which coins falling inside the band were last transacted on the network. The 1 day to 1 week band, for example, includes the part of the BTC supply that was last moved between 1 day and 1 week ago. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Demand Returning? Active Address Trend May Suggest So When addresses falling inside a particular age band make a transaction, the corresponding SOAB registers a spike. In the context of the current topic, the group of focus is the 3- to 5-year-old group. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the SOAB of the cohort over the past day: As displayed in the above graph, the indicator has registered a large increase for the 3-year to 5-year age band, which implies the investors have just moved a huge amount of old coins. In total, the age band has been responsible for transactions involving 8,003 BTC. At the current exchange rate, this stack is worth more than $760 million in US dollars. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell them in the future. This means that as holders mature into the older age bands, they become more resolute. The HODLers of the market (holding for more than 155 days) are known as the long-term holders. Considering that the age band from the chart involves coins older than three years, the investors holding them must be stalwart even by HODLer standards. Thus, to see these diamond hands break their long silence to move such a large stack could be a worrying sign for Bitcoin, if the motive here is for selling, as is often the case when long-dormant tokens shift. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could Rally To $0.74 ATH If Price Closes Month Above This Level, Analyst Says The movement from the 3-year to the 5-year age band has come as BTC’s recovery rally has stalled into flat price action. It’s possible that these whales think this may be their best chance of getting out with their profits, so they have decided to sell. The SOAB of this Bitcoin group and other old ones can now be worth keeping an eye on, to see if more of the resolute hands join in on the profit-taking. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $95,100, up almost 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin transaction count has plunged to the lowest level since October 2023. Here’s what this could mean for BTC’s price. Bitcoin Transactions Have Seen A Significant Slowdown Recently As pointed out by CryptoQuant author IT Tech in a new post on X, the BTC transfer activity has dropped to relatively low levels recently. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Number of Transactions” from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, which measures, as its name suggests, the daily number of moves that addresses across the network are making. Related Reading: Dogecoin Shark & Whale Population Rises—Price Turnaround Incoming? Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in its value over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Number of Transactions has seen a large drop for Bitcoin recently, suggesting that investors are making much fewer moves on the blockchain now. Generally, a drop in network transaction activity is a sign that the traders are losing interest in the cryptocurrency. Any notable move in the price is only sustainable when a large number of investors are providing the fuel to support it, so it can be hard for BTC to mount up a rally when the Number of Transactions declines to a low level. From the chart, it’s visible that the investors were making a high number of moves in the lead-up to the Bitcoin price rally beyond $100,000. But interestingly, the indicator plunged before the price peak arrived, implying that signs of the rally not having too much time left may have already been there from an on-chain perspective. Recently, the Number of Transactions briefly saw a crash to a level that it hasn’t touched since October 2023. Back then, the low transfer count didn’t last for too long and was in fact followed up by a burst of activity that accompanied a price rally. It’s possible that something similar could happen this time as well, but one key difference between then and now is that the recent downturn in the indicator has been more prolonged. Naturally, if things are indeed going to be different this time, then a lasting lack of interest from the investors could be a bad sign for the bulls. That said, an indicator that may provide for an argument against a shift away from a bull market is the Cycle Extreme shared by Axel Adler Jr, another CryptoQuant author. “Cycle Extreme identifies the extreme points of price cycles,” explains the analyst. The indicator makes use of various popular Bitcoin on-chain indicators like the MVRV Ratio and SOPR to determine this. Related Reading: Litecoin Breaks Under Parallel Channel: Analyst Predicts This Target As is apparent from the graph, the indicator has often been reliable for pointing out inflection points in Bitcoin. “At the moment, this metric does not give any clear signals,” notes Adler Jr. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,600, up almost 1% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows that the sentiment of Bitcoin has cooled off from extreme greed as bearish price action continues for BTC and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Now Pointing At ‘Greed’ The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment among investors in the […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin investors who purchased at the top are capitulating following BTC’s drawdown under the $93,000 level. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Just Sold Big At A Loss As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the latest BTC crash has triggered panic among the short-term holders. The “short-term holders” (STHs) are the Bitcoin […]
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has plunged into the negative territory following BTC’s latest high above $98,000. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Just Observed A Plummet As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new Quicktake post, the recent positive Coinbase Premium Gap has just disappeared. The “Coinbase Premium Gap” here refers […]
Dogecoin has broken away from the rest of the market with a 9% surge. Here’s why this could be bad for Bitcoin, according to history. Dogecoin Has Registered A 9% Jump During Last 24 Hours While most of the cryptocurrency market has seen sideways price action during the past day, Dogecoin has shown to be different as its value has witnessed a notable increase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders In Profit Hits 95%: Is BTC Overheating? The below chart shows the trend in DOGE’s price over the past month. From the graph, it’s visible that the Dogecoin price has claimed the $0.134 mark with this rally and has surpassed the high from last month. The memecoin is now close to the July top, so if this run continues, the memecoin can potentially have a go at it as well. In terms of the weekly returns, the latest jump has meant that DOGE is now up more than 24%, which has made it the best performer among the top 50 coins by market cap. Dogecoin isn’t the only memecoin that has been rallying; the asset’s cousin Shiba Inu (SHIB) has also enjoyed bullish momentum during the past day, although its jump of 5% is less impressive than DOGE’s. This latest focus on meme coins may not be the best sign for the cryptocurrency sector as a whole. Market Topped Out The Last Time Memecoins Got The Attention According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, the Social Dominance of the memecoins had spiked during the recent Bitcoin top above the $68,000 level. The “Social Dominance” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the percentage of the discussions related to the top 100 coins on social media that a given coin or group of assets is occupying right now. Here is a chart that shows how the Social Dominance of the top 6 layer 1 assets has compared with that of the top 6 meme coins recently: As displayed in the above graph, the Social Dominance of the memecoins had shot up earlier as Bitcoin and others had rallied, suggesting that investors had started paying attention to these speculative assets. This interest in the meme coins, though, ended up coinciding with the market top. “Typically, markets correct when focus shifts away from layer 1’s and toward more speculative assets due to greed,” explains the analytics firm. With Dogecoin and Shiba Inu pulling away from the pack during the past day, it seems the investor greed is still high, which can potentially lead to more bearish action for Bitcoin and other top assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Transfers See Massive Spike: Sign Of Profit-Taking? From the chart, it’s visible that the market has tended to reach bottoms when attention has shifted back to the layer 1 networks, so it’s possible that this may have to happen again if the sector-wide run has to continue. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative recently. Here’s what this could mean for the asset’s price. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Just Observed A Deep Plunge As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the Coinbase Premium Gap has seen a rapid trend reversal recently. The “Coinbase Premium Gap” here refers to an […]
Bitcoin has continued its bearish momentum as its price has now slipped below $56,000. Here’s what could be behind this trajectory, according to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research. Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Are All Giving Bearish Signals Right Now In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed why the original cryptocurrency has been struggling recently. “Bitcoin price is down simply because there is no demand growth,” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicators Are All Showing Death Cross: Say Hello To Bear Market? To showcase how demand for the asset has been looking like, Moreno has shared the chart for the “Apparent Demand” indicator, which leverages on-chain data to estimate the 30-day demand for BTC among investors. According to the above graph, demand for Bitcoin had been high earlier in the year, according to this indicator. Still, after peaking in April, the indicator sharply declined towards zero. Since then, the Apparent Demand has continued to consolidate around this neutral level, which may be why the cryptocurrency’s price has been locked in an overall bearish trajectory. The second indicator that the CryptoQuant head has cited is the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. This metric combines a few BTC indicators related to profit and loss to produce one value that sums up the entire market. From the graph, it’s visible that the the asset had been inside the historical “Overheated Bull” region from the perspective of CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator back when its price had set the all-time high (ATH). After the coin had cooled off from this top, the indicator flashed a normal “Bull” signal, just like it had done in January and February. These bull market conditions were maintained until the crash early last month. During this plunge, BTC dropped below $50,000, and the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator flagged the market as “Bear.” Since then, the indicator has continued to consolidate around the transition boundary, jumping back and forth between Bull and Bear signals. In the past week or so, though, the metric has consistently maintained inside the Bear region, which may be why Bitcoin has registered a drawdown of 6% in this window. Related Reading: Dogecoin Among Altcoins Seeing Deepest Trader Losses: DOGE Rebound Soon? Moreno has also pointed out a price level to watch, as BTC is quite close to retesting it. The level in question is the lower band of the average cost basis of the BTC traders. At present, this level is situated around $55,500. It remains to be seen how a retest of this level goes if the cryptocurrency continues its decline. BTC Price Bitcoin is currently trading around $55,900, which means the coin is pretty close to retesting the trader above the cost basis level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows three popular Bitcoin momentum indicators recently formed a death cross pattern. Here’s what usually follows this formation. Bitcoin Momentum Indicators Have Seen Bearish Crossovers Recently In a new CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed the latest trend in three momentum indicators related to Bitcoin. The momentum indicators here refer to combinations of some important moving averages (MAs) related to the cryptocurrency. The first is the “Active Address Momentum,” which involves the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the daily unique number of BTC Active Addresses. An address is said to be “active” when it makes some transaction on the network, whether as a receiver or sender. Related Reading: $170 Million In Crypto Longs Bite The Dust As Bitcoin Plunges Under $57,000 The number of Active Addresses may be the same as the number of users visiting the network, so this metric tells us how the blockchain activity is looking right now. Here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the Active Addresses over the last few years. As displayed in the above graph, the monthly average of the Active Addresses saw a cross under the yearly average shortly after the asset’s rally to the new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained under it. This crossover implies activity on the BTC blockchain has been on the decline. Generally, user interest keeps rallies fueled, so an increase in Active Addresses is needed to keep any more sustainable. As investors are starting to pay less attention to the cryptocurrency, conditions may not be right for a bull run anymore. The chart shows that this kind of crossover also occurred at the end of the bull run in the first half of 2021, although the second-half rally did occur regardless. The second momentum indicator is the famous Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which tells us whether the investors are in profit or loss. As the chart shows, the MVRV Ratio has also seen its monthly cross below its yearly, suggesting investor profits have been shrinking. This pattern has historically served as a death cross, with BTC shifting towards a bearish phase following it. The same cross also appeared just before the 2022 bear market kicked off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $40,600 If This Happens, Crypto Analyst Says Finally, there is also the bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day MAs of the Bitcoin price itself. Given all these negative patterns across the different Bitcoin indicators, the cryptocurrency may be heading towards at least a short-term bearish period. BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled recently as its price has dipped towards the $56,500 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could witness a drop to the $40,600 level based on a pattern forming in its 2-month price chart. Bitcoin Has Seen A TD Sequential Sell Signal On Its 2-Month Price In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about a Tom Demark (TD) Sequential signal that has formed in the 2-month price of Bitcoin. The TD Sequential is an indicator in technical analysis (TA) that’s generally used for spotting positions of probable reversal in any asset’s price. This indicator involves two phases: setup and countdown. In the first of these setups, candles of the same color (that is, whether red or green) are counted up to nine. After these nine candles are in, the asset could be assumed to have reached a point of turnaround. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Beware: MVRV Has Given Bear Market Signal Naturally, if the candles that led to the setup’s completion were green, then the TD Sequential would give a sell signal. Similarly, red candles could suggest a bottom may be here. Once the setup is done with, the second phase of the indicator, the countdown, begins. The countdown works much like the setup, with the main difference being that candles here are counted up to thirteen, instead of nine. Following these thirteen candles, the asset may be considered to have reached another potential top or bottom. Bitcoin has completed a TD Sequential phase of the former type recently. Here is the 2-month price chart of the cryptocurrency shared by the analyst, which shows this signal: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin 2-month price has recently finished a TD Sequential setup with nine green candles, implying that the cryptocurrency may have encountered some kind of top. Since the signal has appeared, BTC has been on the way down, with its price currently under the $57,000 level. Thus, it’s possible that this pattern’s bearish effect may already be taking hold. As for how deep this drawdown can take Bitcoin, Martinez has pointed out the support level at $51,000. This level corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement level from the recent BTC top. Related Reading: Bitcoin, XRP See Declining Whale Activity: What It Means Fibonacci Retracement levels are based on the Fibonacci series, where dividing each number (beyond 5) in the series by the next numbers produces ratios that are consistent throughout the series. It’s possible that Bitcoin may find support at the next such important ratio, but the analyst notes that if the $51,000 support gets breached, the cryptocurrency could end up going all the way down to $40,600, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level. In the scenario that BTC does end up revisiting this level, its price would have gone through a drawdown of more than 28% from the current level. It now remains to be seen how the asset’s trajectory plays out from here. BTC Price Bitcoin has furthered its latest decline during the past day as its price has now slipped to $56,600. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com
Data shows Bitcoin users on the Coinbase exchange have been selling recently, a potential reason behind BTC’s drop under $58,000. Bitcoin Has Slipped Under The $58,000 Level In Its Latest Plunge Contrary to what investors may have hoped, Bitcoin hasn’t appeared to have shaken off bearish winds as the asset has witnessed another setback over […]
On-chain data shows the OTC desks that Bitcoin miners like to use have seen their balance shoot up, a sign that historically been bearish. Bitcoin Miners Have Been Depositing Big To OTC Desks Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC miners have been sending coins to over-the-counter (OTC) desks […]
The Head of Research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why Bitcoin may be at risk of seeing a further drawdown. Bitcoin Is Still On Verge Of Bear Market In This Indicator In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. The “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” from CryptoQuant is an indicator based on the P&L Index. The P&L Index combines a few popular BTC metrics related to profit and loss, so it sums up the market balance in one value. This indicator can ascertain whether the asset is going through a bullish or bearish period by comparing it against its 365-day moving average (MA). Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? When the cryptocurrency breaks above its 365-day MA, it can be assumed to be inside a bull market. Similarly, falling under this MA implies a transition toward a bear market. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the actual metric of focus here, exists to make this pattern easier to follow; it keeps track of the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator over the past couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator had reached extreme values during the price all-time high (ATH) earlier in the year (colored in red). At these levels, the P&L Index has quite the gap over its 365-day MA, so the cryptocurrency’s bull rally has become overheated. The graph shows that the metric also gave this signal on a few other occasions during the past two years, and each time, the asset’s price reached the top. However, these previous tops weren’t enough to hold the market back in the long term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator continued to maintain inside the bull territory (shaded in orange), where the P&L Index is above its 365-day MA. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom However, bull market momentum has finally shown signs of running out, with the indicator even briefly plunging into the bear territory (light blue) during the recent price crash. While the metric has recovered back into the bull region with the surge that BTC’s price has observed, it’s still very close to the neutral mark, meaning it can potentially sink back into the bearish zone shortly. Based on this trend, Moreno notes that BTC could still risk seeing a further correction. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall recently, as its price is still trading around the $58,500 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whale entities have sold approximately $588 million in the cryptocurrency during the past week. Bitcoin Whales Have Made Large Selling Moves Recently As pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, the BTC whales have sold around 10,000 BTC over the last seven days. The indicator of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution” from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, which tells us about the total amount of Bitcoin that a given wallet group currently holds. Related Reading: Only 66% Of Ethereum Holders In Profit Despite 21% Price Jump The addresses or investors are divided into these cohorts based on the number of tokens that they are carrying in their balance right now. A holder with 5 BTC, for instance, is put inside the 1 to 10 coins group. In the context of the current topic, the whale cohort is of interest, which typically includes the addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins. At the current exchange rate, this range converts to $58.8 million at the lower end and $588 million at the upper one. Clearly, the investors belonging to the group would be among the largest in the market, so the cohort can be considered to have some influence. As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Supply Distribution for this Bitcoin group over the past few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the whales has observed a significant decline recently. More specifically, the investors belonging to the cohort have removed a combined 10,000 BTC from their wallets during this selloff, worth about $588 million right now. From the chart, it’s visible that the sharpest selling came during the crash that BTC saw earlier, but these whales have also offloaded significant amounts in the recovery rally that has occurred over the last few days. So far, the Supply Distribution of the cohort has shown no signs of a reversal, so it’s possible that the whales are still in net selling mode. Naturally, this could slow down the asset’s recovery efforts. Nothing is set in stone, though, so the indicator could be used to monitor the coming days to see which direction these humongous investors really take. A net accumulation spree would suggest a renewal of confidence among the large hands and could pave the way for a further rise in the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Again Show Extreme Fear As BTC Slips To $59,000 In some other news, BTC has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern recently and is closing in on its apex, as the analyst has explained in another X post. “Bitcoin is showing a symmetrical triangle on the lower time frames,” notes Martinez. “A sustained close outside the $59,000 – $59,530 range could trigger a 4.80% move for BTC.” BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled to put together bullish momentum in the last couple of days as its price has slumped to $58,800. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, charts from TradingView.com
Data shows that ‘paper’ Bitcoin has observed a notable surge recently while the cryptocurrency’s spot price has plunged down. Paper Bitcoin Has Been Rising While Spot BTC Has Stayed Stale In a new thread on X, analyst Willy Woo has talked about the state of the Bitcoin market. BTC has been seeing a bearish trend […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whales took part in significant net distribution in the past month, potentially feeding into BTC’s bearish momentum. Bitcoin Whales Have Been Selling Amid Bearish Market As pointed out by analyst Ali in a new post on X, the BTC whales have been selling recently. The on-chain indicator of interest here […]
An analyst explained that Bitcoin has historically seen recovery from bearish phases like the one the cryptocurrency is going through. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Show Miner Capitulation Is Ongoing In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed the relevance of the Bitcoin hashrate to the asset’s price recovery. The “hashrate” refers to a […]
The market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has discussed the bearish situation Bitcoin has been facing that has got many puzzled. Bitcoin Adoption Has Slowed Down To Multi-Year Lows Recently Bitcoin had a great first quarter in 2024, fueled by demand from the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional entities. During this run, the asset surpassed the all-time high (ATH) set back in the previous bull run, breaking a pattern in other cycles where ATHs were only reached after the Halving. Related Reading: Dogecoin, Cardano “Very Bullish” Based On MVRV: Santiment With the huge demand, things looked to be just getting started for the asset, but in the months since the ATH, the cryptocurrency has only been consolidating sideways. In a new post on X, IntoTheBlock talks about the current situation with Bitcoin, which many have been wondering about. The analytics firm has pointed out that the transfer activity on the BTC network has been high recently, as the Number of Transactions metric has set a new record. The most recent spike in the Number of Transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain has resulted from the emergence of the new Runes protocol, which allows users to mint fungible tokens on the network efficiently. “Institutional whales are present, and activity on the Bitcoin network is high,” says the analytics firm. “So, where’s the confusion?” The answer to that question lies in the trend of the New Addresses indicator. As its name suggests, this metric keeps track of the total number of new addresses that are popping up on the network daily. This indicator tells us about the rate of adoption the cryptocurrency is observing. Below is a chart showing how this Bitcoin metric’s value has changed over the past decade. The graph shows that the Bitcoin New Addresses has declined while the price has risen to its new high. As IntoTheBlock notes: The data reveals that this surge in usage and whale activity does not involve a significant influx of new participants. In fact, the number of new Bitcoin users has plummeted to a multi-year low, even falling below the levels seen during the 2018 bear market. Related Reading: Hard To Be “Too Scared Of Bitcoin Price Action,” Says Analyst. Here’s Why Historically, bull markets have accompanied sharp asset adoption as new investors get attracted by all the hype. In return, this influx of holders has helped fuel the rally. It would appear that despite the asset reaching a new ATH, the network has failed to attract new users. This is what has got many puzzled. The slowdown could, at least in part, be why Bitcoin has failed to continue its bullish momentum. It now remains to be seen whether this will change for the coin soon or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,000, down 7% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
A quant has explained that Bitcoin could end up seeing an extended drawdown if the past pattern in the Open Interest ends up repeating. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Shown Similar Trajectory To November 2021 Recently In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest. The “Open Interest” […]
A quant has pointed out a pattern in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator that may imply the bull phase may be close to ending for now. Bitcoin NUPL Has Been At Overheated Levels For Weeks Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about a bearish development that has recently occurred in the Bitcoin […]