The latest Bitcoin (BTC) price drop has raised concerns about the cryptocurrency’s upcoming performance, with some analysts warning that BTC’s next key closes could signal the start of another major correction. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bottom Not In? Analyst Warns DOGE’s Macro Downtrend Won’t Be Over Soon Bitcoin Risks Another Major Crash On Friday, Bitcoin plunged over 7% intraday to a three-week low of $65,700, raising concerns about the flagship crypto’s short- to mid-term performance. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $65,000-$72,000 levels since the early February crash. After its latest drop, analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that holding the current levels is crucial, as losing this boundary could quickly send BTC’s price 6%-10% down to the next support area, around $60,000-$62,000. Several market observers also warned that the cryptocurrency is currently breaking down a crucial bearish formation, which could also trigger a massive crash to newer lows if the price doesn’t bounce soon. Notably, Bitcoin has been forming a bear flag pattern on the daily timeframe for nearly two months, retesting the formation’s lower boundary on multiple occasions. However, BTC now risks losing this level as support, as it shows multiple concerning signs. Ted Pillows asserted on X that Bitcoin is not only dropping in price but also losing momentum as it has lost its RSI uptrend. “A major sign of weakness,” he added. The analyst also emphasized that BTC’s breakdown “is only a matter of when, not if,” cautioning that the flagship cryptocurrency has already broken down of a similar two-month bear flag pattern at the start of the year. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez suggested that BTC could drop another 30%-45% based on its historical performance over the past decade. As he explained, Bitcoin has kicked off new bull runs after dropping below its long-term holder realized price, and it’s −0.2 standard deviation band, located at the $48,387 and $36,657 levels, respectively. “I’ll be watching these zones for dip-buying opportunities ahead of the next bull cycle,” he stated. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted another concerning sign for Bitcoin, noting that BTC has once again dropped below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Amid this drop, the cryptocurrency is treating this level as resistance once more, putting the focus on the upcoming weekly close. The analyst previously explained that “If the 200-week EMA is lost as support this week and price Weekly Closes below it again, Bitcoin could actually turn the EMA into new resistance.” Last week, the largest crypto by market capitalization technically closed below the 200W EMA after attempting to “post-breakout retest” it as support, but failing to end the week above the $68,000 area. “That means that price technically kickstarted a breakdown from the EMA,” and a weekly close below this level would confirm it. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Projects Circle To Hit $75B Valuation By 2030 Despite Selloff, Clarity Act Concerns “Given this latest Weekly Close, there is therefore scope for another dip into the 200-week EMA for another retest to see if BTC can solidify a reclaim into support,” he detailed, “But the overall suspicion has become confirmed: The 200-week EMA is acting as both an unreliable resistance and an unreliable support, never truly confirming a clear role.” The analyst concluded that the indecisiveness could lead to further retests of this area “before ultimately breaking down into additional Macro Downside over time.” As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $65,600, a 6% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the crypto market recovers from the latest pullback, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to bounce from its one-month low. Some analysts have warned that the correction has left the cryptocurrency in a “fragile position” that resembles the start of the previous bear market. Related Reading: XRP At ‘Critical Inflection Point’: Analyst Signals Major Expansion If This Level Holds Bitcoin Risks 2022-Like Correction On Sunday, Bitcoin saw a 3.6% intraday decline, closing the day below its yearly opening for the first time. Since November, the flagship crypto has been hovering between $86,000-$93,500 in the weekly timeframe, failing to turn the range’s resistance into support despite multiple attempts. During the early January breakout, BTC climbed 11.5% from its $87,600 2026 opening price, reaching a two-month high of $97,924 nearly two weeks ago. Since then, the cryptocurrency has erased all its recent gains, diving below this key area and closing the week at the base of its range. Amid this performance, Market observer Philarekt affirmed that Bitcoin is repeating its 2022 playbook, highlighting the similarities between the leading crypto’s performance at the start of the last bear market and its current price action. As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency formed a bear flag pattern after the initial drop from its cycle top of $69,000. At the time, the cryptocurrency tested and rejected the 100-day Moving Average (MA), leading to a pullback towards the pattern’s lower boundary. This was followed by a rebound towards the formation’s upper boundary, where the 200-day MA was located, and a rejection from this area, which led to a breakdown from the pattern and 55% correction. This time, Bitcoin has rejected from the 100-day MA and is currently retesting the pattern’s support line. Based on this, he suggested that the flagship crypto could see one more leg up toward the 200-day MA, located around the $100,000 barrier, before “the real show” begins. BTC Price In Precarious Position Meanwhile, Rekt Capital explained that Bitcoin was in a “particularly fragile position,” as it needed to hold the previous week’s marginal close above the range high. “When Weekly Closes occur marginally beyond a key level, the subsequent retest becomes structurally precarious,” he detailed. In his analysis, the market watcher noted that Bitcoin saw a sharp rejection from the $98,000 region, where the 21-week and 50-week Bull Market Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are located. This coincided with the loss of a higher low structure that had been building similarly to 2021. “Losing that Higher Low is significant, as it removes a key structural buffer that could have supported continued consolidation within the Weekly Range,” he asserted. The rejection has shifted focus to the strength of the $86,000 support and the character of the upcoming rebounds from this area. He warned that shallower bounces from the range lows would suggest weakening demand, increasing the chances of a breakdown below this support. Related Reading: Crypto Traders Share Odds Of XRP Price Rising 40% This Year, Can It Still Rally? Strong rejections that lead to downside continuation historically tend to occur later in the cycle toward the end of Q1 or the start of Q2, Rekt Capital pointed out, but Bitcoin is already testing the lower boundary of its weekly range. This adds “importance to the integrity of this support, as any early breakdown would represent a shift relative to that typical timing.” At the moment, the weekly range remains pivotal, “acting as the key decision point between a prolonged relief structure and the risk of deeper downside,” the analyst concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the market erases its 2026 gains, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in weeks and is attempting to reclaim a crucial level. Some market observers have warned that a retest of the November lows is likely if volatility continues. Related Reading: BitMine’s Ethereum Holdings Near 3.5% Supply Milestone As ETH Falls Below $3,000 Bitcoin Breaks Down From Key Support On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued to pullback and hit a three-week low of $87,263. The cryptocurrency had been trading between the $90,000-$96,000 range since its start-of-the-year breakout, reaching a two-month high of $97,924 a week ago. However, the crypto market has experienced significant volatility over the past few days, fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions. As a result, BTC has retraced 10% in the past week, falling to the mid-zone of its $84,000-$94,000 range. Amid this performance, trader Wealthmanager noted that the flagship crypto had retraced all its 2026 gains, briefly falling below its yearly opening and POC. He added that this is a critical level to hold in the coming days, as losing this area could send the price back to the $80,000 mark. Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted a two-month bear flag structure on BTC’s daily chart, suggesting a high chance of a breakdown. “Lose the current lows again, and bears will be fully back in the driver’s seat,” he asserted. Similarly, Market observer Lyvo Crypto pointed out the same formation, detailing that Bitcoin broke down from the pattern’s ascending support after the recent price action and lost its two-month uptrend. To the trader, this signals that “momentum is fully in the bears’ control” and “if it [bearish momentum] sustains, we could see a free fall” that could likely result in a retest of the $78,000 area. In the case of a breakdown to the November lows, he advised that “from there, we’ll wait for confirmation of a double bottom and look for a relief rally.” BTC To Repeat Its 2020 Price Action? Crypto Bullet drew a parallel between BTC’s current price action and its performance in early 2022. The analyst affirmed that the current price action closely mirrors its 2022 fractal, which could signal that a major correction is ahead. At the time, Bitcoin retraced over 40% from its late 2021 cycle top, followed by a “dead cat bounce” at the start of 2022 and a second major correction toward new lows. Now, the flagship crypto displays a similar performance as it has retraced 30% from the October highs and is currently attempting to reclaim the lost ground. However, Crypto Bullet noted that there are two significant differences from its 2022 correction. Related Reading: Solana At Risk Of Breakdown After Key Rejection – Is $100 Next? First, Bitcoin has yet to retest the 50-week and 200-week Moving Averages (MAs). Second, the timing hints that the final breakdown is not due until later in Q1. “If we match the 2022 fractal’s top and the October 2025 top, we’ll see there’s still about 1 month of PA to make that final leg up and test the 50-Week MA or the 200-Day MA,” he explained. He concluded that one more pump above the $100,000 is likely, but advised caution as the key supports are being tested. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, a 1.2% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com