On-chain data shows the Bitcoin mega whales are still in a phase of distribution despite the other cohorts shifting to buying. Bitcoin Mega Whales Have Continued To Sell During This Rally According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score suggests a resurgence in buying among the investors. This on-chain indicator basically tells us whether the BTC holders are buying or selling. The metric calculates its value by not only looking at the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors, but also accounting for the size of the wallets themselves. This means that the behavior of the larger entities has a larger influence on the score. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rally Still Looks Intact, CryptoQuant Says: Here’s Why When the value of the indicator is above 0.5, it implies the large investors (or alternatively, a large number of small hands) are participating in accumulation. The closer is the indicator to 1, the stronger is this behavior. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests distribution is the dominant behavior among BTC holders. The zero mark serves as the extreme level for this side of the scale. Now, here’s the chart shared by Glassnode in the report that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score separately for the various investor cohorts: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score assumed a neutral-distribution value across the market in mid-September, but a shift has occurred recently. The sharks, investors holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC, were the first to pivot to buying. And it wasn’t just any degree of accumulation, but a strong one, with the metric sitting close to 1. The 10 to 100 BTC cohort followed soon after, though its Accumulation Trend Score has still not achieved a value as high as the sharks’. Together, the buying from these mid-sized holders appears to be what backed the recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH). Very recently, the retail investors (below 1 BTC and 1 to 10 BTC groups) have also embraced accumulation, potentially attracted by the hype of the Bitcoin bull run. While sharks and smaller entities have been accumulating, the top end of the scale has shown a different behavior. The whales (1,000 to 10,000 BTC) have continued to hold a neutral behavior, neither buying nor selling, while the largest of entities on the network, those holding above 10,000 BTC, have been in stark contrast to the sharks with their Accumulation Trend Score sitting deep in the distribution zone. Related Reading: XRP Could Retest Triangle Support At $2.72, Analyst Warns It now remains to be seen how long these Bitcoin holders, popularly called the mega whales, will continue their selloff, and whether they will provide impedance to the run. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $120,900, down 2.5% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows all Bitcoin investor cohorts have pivoted to distribution recently, an indication that a shift in market mood has occurred. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Has Turned Red For All Holders In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Accumulation Trend Score of Bitcoin for the various investor cohorts. The Accumulation Trend Score measures, as its name suggests, the degree of accumulation or distribution that BTC holders are participating in. Related Reading: 215% PENGU Rally Incoming? Analyst Says Token ‘Inches’ From Next Leg Up The indicator uses two factors to calculate the score: the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors and the size of the wallets involved. This means that larger entities have a higher influence on the indicator. Now, here is a the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score across holder groups over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score had a value greater than 0.5 for all investor groups back in July, implying a net accumulation behavior across the cohorts. Retail (under 1 BTC), whales (1,000 to 10,000 BTC), and mega whales (above 10,000 BTC) even saw the metric assume a value close to 1 for a while, which corresponds to a near-perfect accumulation trend. Earlier this month, the market buying started to show signs of weakness and now, the behavior has flipped across the holder groups with investors taking to distribution. Fish (10 to 100 BTC) lead the selling with an Accumulation Trend Score near zero. “The uniformity across cohorts highlights broad sell-side pressure emerging in the market,” notes the analytics firm. From the chart, it’s visible that the last time this pattern developed was in January. What followed the sector-wide selloff was a bearish period for Bitcoin. As such, it now remains to be seen whether the recent shift toward distribution would also lead to something similar. Another development that could potentially signal the oncoming of a bearish phase could be BTC’s retest of the Realized Price of the 1 month to 3 months old investors, as Glassnode has explained in another X post. The Realized Price is a metric that calculates the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors. The metric shown in the above chart tracks this value specifically for the holders who purchased their coins between 1 and 3 months ago. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bottom Out? This Could Be The Signal To Watch At present, the indicator is sitting at $110,800, which is around where BTC has been trading following its decline. “Historically, failure to hold above this level has often led to multi-month market weakness and potential deeper corrections,” says the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $109,900, down more than 5% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below the $85K level, fueling fears of further downside as the bearish trend remains intact. Bulls are losing momentum, failing to reclaim key resistance levels and hold lower demand zones, raising concerns about a potential continuation of the correction. Related Reading: 130,000 Ethereum Moved Off Exchanges – Bullish Signal? Macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility remain key drivers of price action, with erratic policy decisions from U.S. President Donald Trump adding to the turbulence in both crypto and traditional markets. The global trade war narrative and tightening monetary conditions continue to weigh heavily on risk assets, contributing to Bitcoin’s inability to sustain a meaningful recovery. However, there is a shift in market behavior that could indicate a turning point. Key metrics from Glassnode reveal that after three months of distribution, Accumulation Trend Scores hint at early signs of BTC accumulation. Historically, a transition from distribution to accumulation has often preceded a recovery phase, suggesting that investors might be stepping back in at these lower levels. The next few weeks will be crucial, as Bitcoin’s ability to hold support and attract fresh demand will determine whether the market is preparing for a rebound or a deeper correction. Bitcoin In Correction Mode – Accumulation Trends Hint At A Possible Shift Bitcoin has officially entered correction territory after losing the $100K mark, and the bearish trend was fully confirmed when BTC failed to hold above $90K. Since reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $109K in January, Bitcoin has dropped over 29%, and it appears this trend could continue as global macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable. Related Reading: Solana Holds Bullish Pattern – Expert Sets $140 Target Trade war tensions between the United States and key global economies like Europe, China, and Canada continue to pressure financial markets, leading to uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. As these geopolitical issues intensify, both crypto and traditional markets remain highly volatile, struggling to find stability. However, not all indicators are bearish. Ali Martinez shared insights on X, revealing that the tide is turning for Bitcoin. After three months of distribution, the Accumulation Trend Scores model is hinting at early signs of BTC accumulation. Historically, these phases signal that large investors are re-entering the market, positioning themselves ahead of a potential recovery. This accumulation phase is a critical turning point that will determine whether Bitcoin sees a fast recovery above key supply levels or a long consolidation period before the next major move. The next few weeks will be decisive for BTC’s short-term outlook. $80K Retest on the Horizon? Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,000, caught in a tight consolidation as it struggles to break above $85K while maintaining support at $82K. This range-bound price action has left investors uncertain, with bulls attempting to reclaim higher levels and bears pressing for further downside. If bulls want to regain control, BTC must push above $89K, a key resistance level aligned with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA). A successful breakout above $90K could confirm a recovery trend and open the door for further gains toward $95K and beyond. Related Reading: 640,000 Chainlink (LINK) Withdrawn From Exchanges In 24 Hours – Bullish Accumulation? However, if Bitcoin fails to break above $90K in the coming sessions, the risk of a deeper correction increases. Losing $82K could send BTC into a downward spiral, potentially retesting $80K or even lower levels. With market sentiment still fragile, the next major move will likely determine the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin’s price action. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how the Bitcoin investors have seen a shift toward strong distirbution recently. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Has Been At A Low Level Recently In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. The “Accumulation Trend Score” is an indicator that tells us about the degree of accumulation that the BTC investors as a whole are participating in. Related Reading: XRP Faces Bearish MVRV Crossover—Price Plunge To Continue? The indicator calculates its value not just by looking at the balance changes that happened in investor wallets over the past month, but also by weighing said changes against the size of the holdings themselves. When the value of the metric is close to 1, it means the large investors (or a large number of small entities) are adding to their holdings. On the other hand, it being near 0 suggests the market is observing distribution, or simply, a lack of accumulation. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score over the last couple of years: In the chart, the dark shades correspond to values related to accumulation, while the light ones to distribution. It’s apparent that the market was seeing the Accumulation Trend Score sitting at a very dark shade during the last couple of months of 2024, meaning that heavy accumulation was taking place This strong accumulation from the large entities was likely what fueled the price rally to new all-time highs (ATHs). A similar phase of buying was also seen during the first quarter of 2024 and the asset enjoyed a rally then as well. From the chart, it’s visible that this previous period of accumulation was followed by a phase of strong distribution. It would appear that a similar pattern has also emerged this time, as the Accumulation Trend Score has been flashing distribution values since January. Last year, the distribution phase kicked off a long period of consolidation for Bitcoin, but this time, the cryptocurrency has outright seen a significant decline. It’s possible that as long as the Accumulation Trend Score remains in this zone, the coin’s price will continue to suffer. While the Accumulation Trend Score is a useful indicator for gauging the trend being followed by the market as a whole, the metric can hide the granular details related to market behavior. Glassnode has shared another metric in the the report, that contains these details by looking at how much buying last occurred at particular cost basis levels. As the analytics firm has highlighted in the chart, the Bitcoin investors were buying the ‘dip’ when BTC first entered into this bearish phase, implying they still believed the bull run to be on. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Is Below This Level, Analyst Reveals During the latest crash, however, this hasn’t been the case, as these price levels still don’t host the cost basis of any significant part of the supply. BTC Price Bitcoin fell under $77,000 earlier in the week, but the asset has since been making some recovery as its price is now back at $82,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has observed a decline recently, a sign that investor cohorts have taken to selling. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Is Currently Sitting At 0.21 In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on how the Accumulation Trend Score has recently been looking for Bitcoin. The “Accumulation Trend Score” refers to an indicator that tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors are accumulating or not. Related Reading: Bitcoin Not Reached ‘Extreme Euphoria’ Phase Yet, Glassnode Reveals The indicator calculates its value not just by taking into account for the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors, but also by weighing the changes against the size of the holdings themselves. When the value of this metric is close to 1, it means the large entities on the network (or a large number of small addresses) are participating in net accumulation. On the other hand, it being near 0 implies the investors are in a phase of distribution (or they are simply not buying). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score over the past year: In the above graph, a dark blue/violet shade corresponds to high values of the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score, while an orange/red shade suggests values close to zero. From the chart, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score assumed a dark shade during the last couple of months of 2024, implying the whales were participating in heavy buying and helping fuel the run to the new all-time high. Towards the end of the year, accumulation from the investors started to drop and this year, the picture has completely turned upside down as the indicator has dropped to a low of 0.21. Glassnode has also shared the data for another version of the Accumulation Trend Score that breaks down the accumulation/distribution behaviors across the various BTC cohorts. As displayed in the graph, the largest investors in the sector, the “mega whales” holding more than 10,000 BTC, have interestingly been selling since September, with the distribution turning particularly heavy in the last couple of weeks. The rest of the cohorts were buying during the rally, but even they have taken to selling recently. The whales, holders who own between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, are taking part in a particularly strong amount of selling right now. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Near $690 Million As Bitcoin, Ethereum Crash It’s possible that as long as the blue color doesn’t return to this chart, Bitcoin would be stuck in its current bearish trajectory. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $93,900, down more than 3% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com