The altcoin market is experiencing an early “crypto winter” as initial investors and founders of various projects sell off their tokens. According to a recent Bloomberg report, this decline can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the unlocking of tokens held by venture capitalists (VCs) and founders, as well as the selling pressure caused by the correlation between altcoins and major network tokens. Altcoin Market Hit By Token Unlock Wave As the crypto market recovered from the prolonged decline of two years ago, many projects’ tokens have reached their unlock dates this year. Per the report, venture capitalists and founders who received these tokens in exchange for investments or work contributions now have the opportunity to sell them. Out of the 138 tokens tracked by researcher TokenUnlocks, 120 have scheduled for this year, with a combined market value of approximately $58 billion. This anticipated selling from unlocking VCs has led to downside price reflexivity as non-VC holders attempt to front-run the selling pressure, often resulting in steep discounts to spot prices. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $61,000: The Main Reasons The price performance of altcoins such as DYDX, Avalanche (AVAX), and Pyth (PYTH) has been significantly impacted by token unlocks. DYDX’s token price has more than cut in half since mid-March, while AVAX and PYTH have also seen significant declines. These three tokens had unlocks scheduled for May, adding to the selling pressure. Token unlocks, which had previously helped drive 2023 prices, are now receiving more attention from both VCs and public participants, prioritizing short-term profits over long-term holdings for altcoins with unlocks. Liquidity Crisis? Notably, since March 14, when Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of $73,700, only 12 out of the top 90 non-stablecoin assets tracked on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have posted positive returns, while 81 have recorded negative returns, according to the report. Bitcoin has dropped around 12% since its peak, and most of the top 100 tokens have declined by more than 25%. The smaller altcoins, including those correlated with major network tokens like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), tend to be sold off first when there is a decline. The unlocking of tokens exacerbates this selling pressure, further impacting the altcoin market. Related Reading: Toncoin On Fire: Crypto Explodes To All-Time High – Can It Hit $10? According to Bloomberg, the current market presents challenges for infrastructure projects funded during the bear market phase. While these projects launch their tokens, there is limited demand from “regular buyers” at high prices. The altcoin market is currently characterized by a lack of liquidity and a surplus of tokens being unlocked, leading to downward pressure on prices. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Renowned crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently released “The big altcoin report” for the third quarter of the year, suggesting further downward movement for the market. Based on historical performance and the current state of the market, Doctor Profit warns of an impending altcoin market crash triggered by an episode of uncertainty and a recent price correction in the top 100 cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin (BTC). However, the analyst remains optimistic, highlighting potential buying opportunities and optimal entry points for several top altcoins. Altcoin Market Correction Doctor Profit draws attention to the altcoin market’s recent exponential growth, with market capitalization surging from $300 billion to nearly $800 billion between October 2023 and March 2024, representing a 150% increase in just five months. Related Reading: From Cheers To Tears: Beercoin (BEER) Dries Up, Loses 70% Of Its Value Corrections following such significant growth are deemed normal but can prove challenging for retail investors. The recent correction of 25%, bringing the market cap to around $550 billion, is regarded as a healthy adjustment by the analyst. Doctor Profit believes that altcoins have nearly reached their bottom and are poised for another substantial rise, potentially reaching a market cap of $1 trillion and setting new all-time highs. The analyst parallels the current market situation and previous cycles, emphasizing the repetitive pattern of sideways movement and dumps followed by explosive growth. Doctor Profit identifies several altcoins with optimal buying levels based on their current prices and expected retracements. For instance, the native cryptocurrency of the 3D metaverse game, The Sandbox (SAND), is currently trading at $0.31. Doctor Profit suggests a potential retracement of $0.22 would present an optimal buy zone. Another altcoin, Stacks (STX), a Bitcoin Layer 2 token, currently trades at $1.61. Doctor Profit recommends a downside target and buy zone of $1.48. Similarly, Arbitrum (ARB), a Layer 2 token, is currently trading at $0.78, with losses of over 10%. Doctor Profit identifies $0.61 as the best-buy zone for this token, suggesting further losses in the coming days. Mid-July Rally Forecasted Moving on to larger altcoins, Doctor Profit analyzes Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency. Despite being the largest altcoin, Ethereum has witnessed a 3% drop, with the current trading price at $3,430. Doctor Profit’s analysis suggests a potential decline towards $2,890, indicating an entry point for a long position. Binance Coin (BNB), which recently reached a new all-time high of $725, is expected to retrace almost 50% to $396, presenting the best entry point according to the expert. Currently, BNB has retraced to $585. Doctor Profit further notes that other altcoins expected to retrace substantially include Optimism (OP), the Sei (SEI) token, Toncoin (TON), Notcoin (NOT), and Omni (OMNI). These altcoins have recorded price drops ranging from 8% to 17%, reflecting investor sentiment. Doctor Profit provides specific price targets and optimal buying levels for these altcoins. Doctor Profit advises caution due to potential “market maker manipulation” and order placements at the same levels. The analyst sets orders 3-5% higher or lower than the identified optimal buying levels to avoid missing out. Related Reading: Bitcoin, Solana Suffer As Institutional Investors Pull $600 Million Out Of Crypto Funds Lastly, Doctor Profit highlights the upcoming Ethereum ETF launch on July 2nd. While not expecting a significant pump on that day, similar to the Bitcoin ETF launch, the analyst predicts a sideways or bearish trend for altcoins in the next 3-4 weeks. However, a significant reversal and the start of a new altcoin rally are anticipated by mid-July. The analyst emphasizes that altcoins are currently low, and only a few will succeed. Based on the provided analysis, Doctor Profit believes that the altcoin market cap is 10-15% away from its bottom, making it an opportune time to invest for long-term gains. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com