The violent move had more to do with hedge funds' overcrowded bearish positioning getting wiped out than the company’s financial performance, one analyst pointed out.
Analysts speculated that a large issuer like Circle might be moving reserve assets en masse into the ETF, but data show otherwise.
According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, Bitcoin’s familiar four-year cycle still exists, but what drives that rhythm has changed. He told listeners on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the calendar timing of halvings is no longer the main force. Instead, election timing, central bank moves and where money flows now matter more. Related Reading: Bitcoin Headed For $200 Trillion? CEO Makes Bold Prediction Shift From Halving To Politics And Liquidity Thielen highlighted that Bitcoin’s major peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all happened in the fourth quarter, and he believes these highs match up more closely with election cycles and political uncertainty than with the timing of the halvings. According to him, there is added market worry about whether the sitting president’s party will keep control of Congress. He said that could shape policy and investor choices, and he mentioned US President Donald Trump when discussing current political odds. The message was clear: politics changes expectations, and expectations move prices. The four-year cycle is still intact, but it’s driven by midterm elections, not the halving.@markus10x pic.twitter.com/5td8bLgb20 — The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2025 Liquidity And Institutional Caution The recent Fed rate cut did not spark the usual broad rally in risk assets. Institutional investors, who now have a larger role in crypto markets, are acting more guardedly as policy signals remain mixed and liquidity looks tighter. Capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year, Thielen said, removing some of the buying pressure that helped push prices higher before. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, made a similar point in October, saying that global liquidity, not an automatic four-year clock, has always driven the main moves in cryptocurrency. According to Hayes, halvings may line up with rallies sometimes, but they are often coincidental. Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 in thin Sunday trading, a sign of fragile demand when volumes are low. Ether showed relative strength while major altcoins lagged. Traders are positioning ahead of a busy week of US data and central bank events, putting premium on signals that affect liquidity and risk appetite. With institutional desks watching macro reads closely, momentum is likely to depend on flows rather than calendar dates. Related Reading: Solana’s Long-Awaited Firedancer Launch Sparks 5% Rally What This Means For Investors The clearest takeaway is simple. The four-year pattern can still help frame expectations, but it should not be treated as a rule. Halvings affect supply and miner economics, and they matter to some market actors, but in a market shaped by large funds and ETFs the real fuel is cash and credit conditions. When liquidity loosens, prices can run. When it tightens, rallies can end. That lesson sits at the center of both Thielen’s and Hayes’s views. Policy and liquidity are now central to Bitcoin’s cycles. Reports indicate that the pattern has shifted from a purely mechanical schedule to one influenced by broader money conditions and political timelines. Market participants appear to be responding to economic news and central bank signals alongside the block reward schedule. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Tom Lee's company could trap shareholders amid low staking yields, hefty embedded fees and vanishing NAV premium, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen warns.
The company is expected to report another quarterly profit on Thursday, possibly reviving expectations for S&P 500 inclusion, 10x Research's Markus Thielen argued.
BTC could break down to potential support levels at $112,000 and lower during a likely consolidation phase, the report said.
Bitcoin’s price is primed for a breakout before the end-of-month FOMC meeting, but it could go either way, says a crypto analyst.
10x Research’s founder Markus Thielen said the Federal Reserve’s decisions remain Bitcoin’s “primary risk,” slowing it from another price surge.
10x Research says Ether may not be a smart bet for the much-anticipated 2025 bull run, though other analysts say the jury’s still out.
Net inflows into spot Ether ETFs were positive in 22 of the last 24 trading days in 2024 and one analyst expects flows to increase even more under the Trump administration.
If the crypto market were a country, it would be the eighth largest in GDP terms behind the United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, the United Kingdom and France.
Almost $180 million in short positions in Bitcoin have been wiped as it hit a new all-time high, with an analyst saying it is “meaningful” that it is driven by spot demand.
NEAR, RNDR, TAO and LPT booked double-digit gains as artificial intelligence-focused tokens were the best performers within the CoinDesk 20 Index.
10x Research’s Markus Thielen says there’s one stablecoin metric that is key to indicating institutional interest in Bitcoin, but it’s not flashing green right now.
The popular Bitcoin valuation metric hasn’t been at this level since the downfall of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November 2022.
The market will have to absorb between $4-$6 billion worth of bitcoin selling pressure throughout the summer months, weighing on prices, K33 Research said.
Cryptocurrency traders believe that the recent market downturn is just a “shakeout” and there is a “bullish continuation” on the horizon.
Bitcoin price movements may “appear random,” but critical drivers such as inflation are what’s making it move, according to a crypto analyst.
Ethereum is already home to the world’s largest DeFi protocols, tokenized RWAs, and stablecoins, but its technical roadmap could be hard for TradFi to understand.
The massive overall demand for Bitcoin along with macroeconomic factors will play a far bigger role in driving the price of Bitcoin this year.
Mitchell Askew of Blockware Solutions said investors cashed in some profits during the end-of-December holiday period after a strong month.