Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period. Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates. Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month. BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Attention is shifting beyond rate moves, with investors focused on Fed leadership and political signals shaping the 2026 policy outlook.
The January Fed rate decision capped a sharp reversal in easing expectations, likely among the reasons for crypto's poor price performance.
The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market’s largest cryptocurrency. Rate Cut Odds Fade The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Economists surveyed by financial data provider FactSet anticipate the federal funds rate — the benchmark rate banks use for overnight lending — will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Such a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: XRP Outlook For 2026: AI Model Signals New Record Ahead — Can Price Reach $6? Despite that earlier momentum, the Bitcoin price has struggled to maintain its footing. Ahead of the FOMC decision, the cryptocurrency is trading near $87,780, roughly 30% below the all‑time highs reached last year. Market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to Bitcoin’s historical behavior around FOMC meetings as a reason for caution. In a recent post on X (previously Twitter) Martinez highlighted that expectations for a January rate cut are extremely low, estimated at just 2.8%, signaling that meaningful policy easing is unlikely in the near term. That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed’s policy meetings. Of the eight FOMC decisions held during the year, seven were followed by notable declines for the Bitcoin price. The January meeting was followed by a 27% drop, March saw a 14% decline, June was down 8%, July slipped 6%, September fell 7%, October recorded a 29% pullback, and December ended with a 9% loss. The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision. Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision Zone From a technical and on‑chain perspective, analyst BitBull also sees the Bitcoin price approaching a critical moment. BitBull noted on social media that the asset has entered what she describes as a key on‑chain decision zone. At current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven. Related Reading: Tether Reveals Massive Gold Accumulation In Q4: Adds 27 Tons To Reserves BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater. As a result, any upward move toward that zone could face selling pressure as traders look to exit at reduced losses. On the downside, the True Market Mean at around $80,700 has historically marked the boundary between a “routine correction and deeper structural weakness.” Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests that long‑term holders remain firmly in profit and largely unshaken by recent volatility. BitBull argues if the Bitcoin price can maintain support above the $87,500 level, it would indicate that active capital is defending its position and that broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level, however, could open the door for a move toward $80,700. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Binance Coin climbed again over the weekend, pushing past the $900 mark and touching about $907 on Sunday after a sharp 24-hour uptick. Markets were calmer overall, with the broader crypto complex up 0.55% for the day while Bitcoin hovered above $92,000 and Ethereum traded beyond $3,100. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Peak Might Ignite ADA’s Rally, Says Cardano Creator Market Reaction To Regulatory Shift According to social posts from Changpeng Zhao, founder and former CEO of Binance who is also known as ‘CZ’, optimism around a possible new crypto cycle helped fuel demand. CZ linked the mood to a regulatory change, saying the Securities and Exchange Commission had removed crypto from its list of priority risks for 2026. Based on reports, that move is being read by some investors as a sign of easing scrutiny, and it appears to have lifted sentiment across tokens. I could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming. https://t.co/6TLldEMmGA — CZ ???? BNB (@cz_binance) January 10, 2026 Institutional Buying Adds Fuel Reports note sizable institutional flows into Bitcoin products. According to a filing, Wells Fargo bought 383 million of Bitcoin ETF shares, a figure that market watchers flagged as a large institutional stake. Morgan Stanley also filed for its own spot Bitcoin ETF last week, which many see as more proof that big financial players are stepping in. Those actions are being cited by traders as one reason risk assets like Binance Coin could see more interest. Macroeconomic Calendar Could Swing Prices A packed US data week is ahead and traders say it could affect crypto angles. On Monday, the market will watch a speech by the FOMC president. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are due. Jobless claims come on Thursday, and a Fed balance sheet update lands on Friday. Any big surprise in those numbers can push liquidity flows and quickly change appetite for tokens. Binance Coin: Technical Levels To Watch BNB briefly reclaimed the $900 zone and was reported at $909 in some feeds as the four-hour chart showed a steady climb. Short-term resistance sits near $950, with a psychological barrier at $1,000. Related Reading: XRP Ledger May Get A Tokenized Gold Upgrade, Web3 Founder Reveals Technical indicators offered cautious support for bulls: the MACD showed a bullish crossover with the blue line above the signal line, and the histogram printed positive bars, which suggests buying pressure building. The RSI sat around 56.10, under overbought levels, implying room for more gains. Traders still point to a key support range near $850. A break below that could invite heavier selling and take prices down toward $820. The scenario of a quick pullback is real; prices that move fast up can move fast down. Market participants will be watching both the macro calendar and any fresh regulatory updates for clues. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has entered a critical make-or-break phase as price clings to key weekly support while momentum continues to fade. Despite holding above a major confluence zone, repeated rejections overhead suggest buyers are losing control. With macro pressure building and liquidity levels still untested, the next move from here could define whether BTC stabilizes or slides into a deeper reset. Lower-Timeframe Rejection Keeps The Downtrend In Control Crypto analyst Michael Van De Poppe revealed in a recent post that Bitcoin has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance level. This failure signals that the short-term downtrend remains intact on lower timeframes, confirming that selling pressure currently outweighs buying momentum in the immediate term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Structure Weakens As Inter-Exchange Liquidity Touches Red Zone – Details To flip this short-term bias, Van de Poppe expects a clear breakout above the $88,000 level. A successful move above this mark would serve as a strong, unequivocal signal to the markets that the corrective phase is over and that upward momentum is likely to take hold from that point forward. If buyers fail to achieve this necessary breakout, it remains highly probable that the price will pursue liquidity targets below, specifically targeting a test at $83,000 for liquidity. Should that fail, a further descent to the $80,000 level will trigger stop-losses. Finally, Van De Poppe connected the technical outlook to the broader economic environment. Given the high volume of macroeconomic events scheduled to take place over the course of the week, such as FOMC, Poppe believes that the market could experience significant volatility and end up reaching one of the predicted downside liquidity tests. $93,000 Rejection Stalls Momentum, but Weekly Structure Still Intact According to a weekly chart update by Crypto Damus, Bitcoin recently faced a firm rejection at the $93,000 resistance level. Despite that setback, price action remains constructive for now, with BTC holding above the crucial $86,000 weekly support zone. This area is reinforced with the key 100-week moving average confluence, making it an important level to watch in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Potential 60% Decline As Expert Warns Of ‘Major Bull Trap’ That said, the broader structure still leaves room for deeper downside. Crypto Damus notes that a full retracement toward the rising wedge breakdown target cannot be ruled out, which aligns closely with the April low around the $78,000 region. A move into that zone would represent a more pronounced corrective phase within the larger cycle. Looking further ahead, a deeper bear-market-style retest may ultimately present a more attractive long-term opportunity. A revisit of the $70,000 level is highlighted as a potential high-conviction buying area, should the market extend its pullback. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin’s behavior around US Federal Reserve announcements has become one of the most consistent market patterns of the year. After every FOMC update, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has reacted with a noticeable downside move, underscoring how closely the asset is now tied to shifting interest-rate expectations and broader macro sentiment. What Future FOMC Meetings Could Mean For Bitcoin In an X post, analyst CryptoMichNL has mentioned that the Federal Reserve (FED) is preparing to update the printer from 2021 liquidity settings toward a more supportive 2025 stance. However, this doesn’t mean it will have an immediate impact on the markets, as these things take time. As a result of the update, Bitcoin has dropped after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, but these moves are primarily aimed at flushing out longs through high liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal According to the expert, the actual move on the markets and the direction should come in the next 1-2 weeks, which would give a better outlook going into 2026. The bullish trend has remained intact, and the thesis is still valid. However, BTC shouldn’t break the lows during the FOMC flush. Instead, it should break the $92,000 resistance zone to retest the $100,000 level. Bitcoin is still moving in a choppy pattern, driven by illiquid order books and fast moves in both directions. CryptoMichNL has also highlighted that BTC is still in for a new upward breakout in the coming days to weeks. Despite the volatility, BTC has continued to form higher lows, which is a clear sign that an upward structure is building. CryptoMichNL noted that, as the price doesn’t break down anymore, the heavy correction in the market was highly manipulated and not organic, which is very natural for the market to return to normal. Why Bitcoin Market Structure Remains Intact Despite Deep Pullback Bitcoin has not proven to be any different from the cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the good initial bounce is right off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is taken from the entire cycle move. Realistically, that was the lowest the price could go without breaking the broader weekly market structure. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 According to Daan, the invalidation is clearly the higher-timeframe outlook, and the November lows would become a very uncomfortable place for the bulls. As the year comes to an end, a lot of the 4-year cycle selling should also be diminishing. Meanwhile, Q1 2026 is shaping up to be extremely important as it will likely reveal where the BTC cycle will move next. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is trading in a world where headlines still scream “bull” or “bear” while the underlying structure quietly refuses to play along. After spiking to an all-time high in the $124,000–$126,000 zone in early October and then shedding roughly a third of its value into November, BTC now sits in the low-$90,000s, still dominant but clearly winded. Into that confusion steps pseudonymous renowned crypto industry veteran plur daddy (@plur_daddy) who suggests the market may be in neither regime at all. “Because of the 4 year cycle, all crypto market participants are primed to view the market as either in a bull or bear phase,” he wrote on X. “What if, as a part of the market maturing, we are simply in an extended consolidation window where overhead supply is being absorbed?” It is a simple framing shift with fairly big implications. He points to gold, which “chopped between $1,650–2,050 from April 2020 to March 2024,” and argues it is “logical to assume that as BTC evolves, it will exhibit more gold-like behaviors.” In other words: not dead, not euphoric, just… stuck in a fat, liquidity-soaked range where supply changes hands from weak to strong for longer than traders raised on clean halving cycles are emotionally prepared to tolerate. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50% The range dynamics are already visible at the top end. According to plur, “sellers emerged aggressively whenever price entered the $120k range.” He notes there are “strong arguments” those sellers were driven by the four-year cycle meme, but “equally good arguments” they were reacting to more prosaic considerations: age, price, liquidity, thesis change, and “emerging tail risks.” If BTC revisits that zone, he thinks it is “rational for people to front run that, which helps reinforce the range.” Classic reflexivity: people remembering the last top create the next one. On the downside, he is not in the doom camp. “This also dovetails with my intuitive feeling that the lows may be in, or at the least not significantly lower than what we have seen, but upside also being capped,” he wrote, adding that liquidity conditions are “poised to moderately improve,” creating room for a bounce – just not necessarily a new regime. Or as he put it with some restraint, he’d “be cautious about betting on regime change.” Bitcoin Market Puzzled: QE Or Not QE? That “moderate improvement” is not theoretical. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, taking the Fed funds target to 3.50–3.75%, alongside a surprise announcement: roughly $40 billion a month in “reserve management purchases” (RMPs) of short-dated Treasuries, starting December 12 and guided to remain elevated for several months. The official line is that this is a technical step to keep reserves “ample” and repo markets functioning, not a new round of QE. Macro voices on X are, unsurprisingly, not unified on that distinction. Plur Daddy added via X: “This is different from QE because the main way that QE works is through pulling duration out of the market, forcing market participants to move up the risk curve. However, they snuck in there that they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out. This is more bullish than expected, and helps bridge market liquidity into the new year.” Miad Kasravi (@ZFXtrading) insists, “FED is NOT doing QE. Just expanding balance sheet via Money-market displacement,” arguing that when the Fed buys bills, the prior holder gets cash that “has to go somewhere” and “some of it seeps into credit, equities, crypto.” Related Reading: Wall Street Giant Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Price To Hit $1 Million By 2033 LondonCryptoClub takes the gloves off. In his view, the Fed is “basically going to print money to keep funding this deficit for as long and as large as needed,” adding that “the debasement trade is on autopilot mode.” He backs Lyn Alden’s earlier remark that “it’s money printing. Whether it’s QE or not is more semantics. Fed won’t call it QE since it’s not duration and it’s not for economic stimulus.” Lyn Alden nails it Markets are going to tie themselves up arguing over the semantics and overcomplicating it Yet they’re printing money and monetising the deficit It’s all the same thing. Admittedly, this is QE-lite…for now at least Believe it or not, market participants… https://t.co/cf7QLogWom — LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) December 10, 2025 Peter Schiff, predictably but not entirely irrationally, commented via X: “QE by any other name is still inflation. The Fed just announced it will be buying T-bills “on an ongoing basis.” Given that long-term rates will rise on this inflationary policy shift, it won’t be long before the Fed expands and extends QE5 to longer-dated maturities. Got gold?” So The Takeaway Is? As Plur notes, these operations expand bank reserves and ease repo stress; the Fed will primarily buy T-bills, but “they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out.” That edges the program closer to “QE-lite” than pure plumbing. It is supportive for risk assets and it arrives precisely during the year-end liquidity doldrums, with further balance-sheet expansion mechanisms waiting in the wings. For Bitcoin, the uncomfortable answer right now is that both things can be true: the “debasement trade” is structurally alive, while price action behaves like a large, semi-institutional asset digesting a brutal rally and a fresh macro shock. Another six to eighteen months of rangebound churn, as plur suggests, “wouldn’t be strange at all.” Whether you label that bull, bear, or just purgatory is mostly a narrative choice. Markets, frankly, will trade it the same either way. At press time, BTC traded at $90,060. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, told attendees at Binance Blockchain Week that the wall of skepticism inside big banks is breaking down faster than he once expected. Related Reading: All-In On XRP: Why This Leading Investor Sold His Entire Bitcoin Stack He said he had thought it might take four to eight years for major financial firms to move fully into Bitcoin. Now, he says, that timeline is compressing and the shift is visible right away. Banking Giants Reverse Course According to Saylor, the past 12 months have seen heavy hitters — including Citibank, BNY, Bank of America, PNC, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Vanguard — shift from hostility to a more welcoming stance on crypto. Reports have disclosed that Vanguard has enabled clients to trade ETF shares linked to XRP and Bitcoin through its platform. Saylor added that internal plans are in motion at several institutions to roll out custody services and credit lines tied to crypto holdings. Loans Backed By Bitcoin Based on Saylor’s remarks, Charles Schwab is preparing to offer Bitcoin custody and to extend credit against BTC as soon as next year, and Citibank is said to be moving in a similar direction. He recalled earlier struggles to secure bank loans using Bitcoin as collateral and said lenders have flipped their approach within roughly six months. According to him, eight of the top 10 US banks are now issuing credit backed by Bitcoin, a claim that highlights how quickly attitudes appear to be changing inside the industry. Political Climate Could Be Speeding Things Up Saylor pointed to policy shifts under US President Donald Trump as a factor that has encouraged banks to leave the sidelines. Many firms were already experimenting with blockchain years ago — Goldman Sachs, for example, issued one of the first Bitcoin-backed loans in 2022 — but a friendlier regulatory tone, he said, has accelerated planning and product development. Still, banks face legal, operational and risk hurdles before these services reach broad retail customers. Markets Watching Fed Announcement Meanwhile, traders and analysts are watching the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25%, bringing the target to 3.5%–3.75%, a move that often boosts risk assets like Bitcoin. Volatility is likely around the announcement, and some market players warn that early rallies can reverse quickly when the Fed provides forward guidance. Related Reading: NFT Slump Worsens With Monthly Sales Hitting Rock Bottom Technical Signals And Sentiment Bitcoin’s own moves were discussed alongside the banking story. The crypto fear gauge hit 10 this week, signaling extreme fear, and price rebounded from $86,700 to roughly $92,300. One analyst flagged resistance near $94,200 and suggested a clean breakout could open a path toward $103,000. Another observer noted Bitcoin has lagged the Nasdaq’s recovery, a divergence that could work in either direction if markets shift. Featured image from The Information, chart from TradingView
"Powell is threading the needle between their two mandates," said one analyst.
Shiba Inu has recorded a notable surge in spot trading activity on several exchanges over the last seven days. This provides a bullish outlook for the second-largest meme coin by market cap, which has been one of the underperformers in this market cycle. Shiba Inu Sees Surge In Spot Trading Activity CoinGlass data show a 154% surge in Shiba Inu USD spot trading volume on Kraken over the last seven days. There has also been a significant surge on other major exchanges, such as Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gemini, during the same period. This indicates that spot buyers may be stepping in to defend the SHIB price at a critical support amid the broader crypto market decline. Related Reading: Will A Shiba Inu ETF Follow After Dogecoin? The Lone SHIB Filing Standing Against The Crowd Notably, Shiba Inu is one of the altcoins that are in the green over the last week, suggesting that the bulls may be in control at the moment. CoinMarketCap data shows that the second-largest meme coin by market cap is up almost 7% during this period despite Bitcoin’s choppy price action. Meanwhile, further data from CoinGlass also shows that most leverage traders are currently betting on an increase in the Shiba Inu price, with the long/short ratio currently above 1. However, it is worth noting that derivatives volume is down by over 10% and open interest is down by almost 4%, which presents a bearish outlook for the meme coin. Another positive for Shiba Inu, besides the surge in spot trading volume, is that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates again at this week’s FOMC meeting. This could inject more liquidity into the crypto market, with altcoins like SHIB benefiting from it. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently looking to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, which could pave the way for higher prices for SHIB given their positive correlation. Community Gives Update On SHIB’s Progress In an X post, Shiba Inu community member Shibizens gave an update on SHIB’s progress over the last few days. The community member noted that over 45 billion SHIB have been moved off exchanges, indicating that holders are accumulating. Shibizens also alluded to a $35 million whale transfer into a private wallet, suggesting that SHIB whales are also bullish. Related Reading: Will The Shiba Inu Price Hit A New All-Time High In 2025? Machine Learning Algorithm Answers Furthermore, Coinbase is set to launch Shiba Inu futures on December 12 for institutional and retail investors, which could boost the meme coin’s adoption. Meanwhile, NYSE Arca has filed the 19b-4 for T. Rowe’s Shiba Inu ETF, bringing the ETF one step closer to launch. Shibuzens also highlighted upgrades on the Shibarium network, which could provide a major boost for SHIB. This includes the RPC upgrade, while a full privacy upgrade has been confirmed using encrypted tech. There are plans to roll this out by next year. At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000008498, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto markets head into this week’s Federal Reserve meeting focused less on rate cut and more on whether Jerome Powell quietly declares the start of quantitative easing (QE). The key question on Wednesday for macro-sensitive traders is whether the Fed shifts into a bill-heavy “reserve management” regime that starts rebuilding dollar liquidity, even if it refuses to call it QE. Futures markets suggest the rate decision itself is largely a foregone conclusion. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning roughly 87.2% odds to a 0.25 percentage point cut, underscoring that the real uncertainty is not about the size of the move, but about what the Fed signals on reserves, T-bill purchases and the future path of its balance sheet. Former New York Fed repo specialist and current Bank of America strategist Mark Cabana has become the focal point of that debate. His latest client note argues that Powell is poised to announce a program of roughly 45 billion dollars in monthly Treasury bill purchases. For Cabana, the rate move is secondary; the balance-sheet pivot is the real event. Related Reading: Italy’s Market Watchdog Gives Crypto Firms A Clear Order: Act Or Exit Cabana’s argument is rooted in the Fed’s own “ample reserves” framework. After years of QT, he contends that bank reserves are skirting the bottom of the comfortable range. Bill purchases would be presented as technical “reserve management” to keep funding markets orderly and repo rates anchored, but in practice they would mark a turn from draining to refilling the system. That is why many in crypto describe the prospective move as “stealth QE,” even though the Fed would frame it as plumbing. What This Means For The Crypto Market James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington Altus, sharpened the point in X post. “Will Powell surprise on Wednesday?” he asked, before posing the question that has been echoing across macro desks: “Is Powell about to admit on Wednesday that the Fed has drained the system too far and now has to start refilling the bathtub?” Thorne argues that this FOMC “is not just about another token rate cut; it is about whether Powell is forced to roll out a standing schedule of bill-heavy ‘reserve management’ operations precisely because the Fed has yanked too much liquidity out of the plumbing.” Thorne ties that directly to New York Fed commentary on funding markets and reserve adequacy. In his reading, “By Powell’s own framework, QT is done, reserves are skirting the bottom of the ‘ample’ range bordering on being too tight, and any new bill buying will be dressed up as a technical tweak rather than a confession of error, even though it will plainly rebuild reserves and patch the funding stress that the Fed’s own over-tightening has triggered.” That framing goes to the heart of what crypto traders care about: the direction of net liquidity rather than the official label. Macro analysts followed closely by digital-asset investors are already mapping the next phase. Milk Road Macro on X has argued that QE returns in 2026, potentially as early as the first quarter, but in a much weaker form than the crisis-era programs. Related Reading: 75% Chance Crypto Is ‘Crossing The Chasm’ Now, Says Moonrock Capital Boss They point to expectations of roughly 20 billion dollars a month in balance-sheet growth, “tiny compared to the 800bn per month in 2020,” and stress that the Fed “will be buying treasury bills, not treasury coupons.” Their distinction is blunt: “Buying treasury coupons = real QE. Buying treasury bills = slow QE.” The takeaway, in their words, is that “the overall direct effect on risk asset markets from this QE will be minimal.” That distinction explains the tension now gripping crypto markets. A bill-only, slow-paced program aimed at stabilizing short-term funding is very different from the broad-based coupon buying that previously compressed long-term yields and turbo-charged the hunt for yield across risk assets. Yet even a modest, technically framed program would mark a clear return to balance-sheet expansion. For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the immediate impact will depend less on Wednesday’s basis-point move and more on Powell’s language around reserves, Treasury bill purchases and future “reserve management” operations. If the Fed signals that QE is effectively starting and the bathtub is starting to be refilled, the liquidity backdrop that crypto trades against in 2026 may already be taking shape this week. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.1 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has revealed a historical bearish pattern that could send the Bitcoin price to as low as $42,000. This bearish outlook for BTC comes amid a rebound for the flagship crypto, with a recent surge above the psychological $90,000 level. Bitcoin Price Risks 50% Drop To $42,000 Based On This Pattern In an X post, Severino stated that the Bitcoin price likes to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its impulse. Based on this, the analyst indicated that BTC could crash to as low as $42,000 on wave C of this move to the downside. His accompanying chart showed that this decline could happen sometime at the start of next year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Can Hit These ‘Realistic’ Bullish Targets Before The Bear Market Begins This bearish Bitcoin price prediction comes amid BTC’s rebound above $90,000 following the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The flagship crypto has also rebounded amid optimism of another rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows there is almost a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates again this month. However, despite these macro positives for the Bitcoin price, analysts such as Tony Severino have suggested that BTC is in a bear market and is likely to trend lower in the coming months. In an X post, he highlighted the BTC monthly chart, suggesting it showed a subtle volume breakout that confirmed a “not-so-subtle” trendline breakdown. Meanwhile, market technician JT described statements that the QT ending is bullish for the Bitcoin price as being a “fallacy.” He alluded to the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may hike rates this month as one of the stressors to liquidity beyond QT. Peter Brandt Predicts Drop To Mid $40ks In an X post, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin price could drop to mid $40,000. He stated that the upper boundary of the lower green zone starts below $70,000 and that the lower support boundary is in the mid $40,000. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted that BTC could drop to around $50,000 before it then rallies to around $200,000 in the next bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The veteran analyst noted that there have been five major bull market cycles for the Bitcoin price since its inception. He further stated that in all previous cycles, the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75% plus correction with no exception. As such, he expects BTC to undergo another significant correction in this cycle, potentially dropping below $50,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $93,000, up almost 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
In a post on X on October 29, Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, argued that Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC messaging was less about macro uncertainty and more about pressure tactics aimed at the political apparatus — with direct consequences for crypto liquidity. Powell’s FOMC Comments Decoded Thompson wrote: “Powell appeared to be playing political games / posturing / CYA around the December verbiage, possibly to communicate to the admin to get the government reopened. It almost felt like a threat that if no data (due to continued government shutdown), then there won’t be a December cut and the market was briefly thrown off by that uncertainty.” He called out how abnormal it was to hear Powell comment this directly on market expectations: “The immediate reaction made sense given it is quite abnormal to hear Powell comment on market pricing so specifically as he always refrains from doing so and makes a point to say he will not comment on market pricing.” That is the core of Thompson’s read. Powell just broke his own habit. Powell tends to reject any framing that implies the Fed is validating market forward pricing. This time, after the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, Powell said explicitly that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion — far from it.” He underlined that there are “strongly different views” inside the Committee about the speed and depth of further easing. Markets immediately repriced. Treasury yields moved higher and the probability of a December cut fell sharply from near certainty to something closer to a coin flip, and risk assets reacted accordingly. That includes crypto: bitcoin and large-cap crypto assets initially traded lower alongside equities as the market read the comment as a hawkish surprise rather than as positioning. Related Reading: China Intensifies Crypto Crackdown With Latest Warning Against Stablecoins Thompson’s view is that this was not about signaling a hawkish turn. It was about signaling conditionality. He frames Powell’s remarks as a message to the White House and Congress: reopen the government, restore economic data flow, and the Fed has cover to cut again in December; keep the shutdown in place and deny the Fed official data, and Powell can say, on record, that he cannot justify further accommodation. Powell himself emphasized that the central bank has been operating “in the absence of key government data” because the shutdown that began on October 1 has blocked normal labor, inflation, and activity reporting. Thompson characterizes that stance as an implicit warning shot. In his words, “What you infer from that is up to you, but additionally I believe the market may have been surprised by what I believe to be an incorrect Fed reaction function to the government shutdown. There is no scenario in which the economy is stronger because of the shutdown and if they are highlighting continued downside labor market risks, there isn’t a great case to be made to veer from their September dot plot path.” For crypto, the subtext is important: Thompson is saying Powell’s comments were not a signal to tighten financial conditions into year-end. They were leverage in a political negotiation, not a policy ceiling on liquidity. That point is operational, not rhetorical. Thompson is saying the Fed’s stated logic does not actually line up with what the Fed itself claims to be worried about. Powell’s justification for the October 29 cut leaned heavily on labor market softening and downside employment risk. The official FOMC statement pointed to a “shift in the balance of risks” toward weaker employment, noted that job gains have slowed, and acknowledged that unemployment has edged higher. Powell also said inflation is still above target but no longer accelerating the way it was earlier in the year, which is why some members favored faster easing. That mix — weakening labor, cooling inflation, policy cuts — has historically been constructive for crypto because it points to easier dollar liquidity and a lower cost of capital without outright crisis. On the balance sheet, Thompson highlights something that is already documented in Fed and press statements but has not yet fully repriced across risk: “Just a week or two ago the market was not expecting QT to end this soon and today Powell went so far as to discuss the next step in this process being a return to balance sheet growth. These developments are definitively liquidity positive, even though the MBS reinvestment and future purchases will be all or predominantly bills.” What This Means For Crypto In plain terms, the Fed didn’t just cut rates by 25 bps. It also said it will stop quantitative tightening on December 1. That means the Fed will no longer allow its Treasury and mortgage holdings to roll off passively. Instead, it will reinvest maturing Treasuries back into Treasuries and redirect principal paydowns from its mortgage-backed securities portfolio into Treasury bills. Related Reading: Max Bid Crypto Now: Market Maker Wintermute Turns Fully Bullish For crypto, this is the line that matters. When the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet and starts recycling back into bills, it’s effectively injecting incremental dollar liquidity into the system, even if it refuses to call it QE. That liquidity has historically leaked into the parts of the market most sensitive to excess cash and duration scarcity — tech, high beta credit, and crypto. Thompson is basically saying that under the surface of Powell’s cautious language, the Fed just signaled the start of the next crypto liquidity regime. This is a critical liquidity inflection that is easy to miss if the only headline you absorb is “December cut not guaranteed.” Ending QT this early was not a consensus two weeks ago. This is also why Thompson rejects the idea that Powell’s tone was structurally bearish for risk. He writes, “All in all I think the December cut is still quite likely.” He then lays out the macro sequence he expects to see once the shutdown ends: “Ultimately I think they will reopen the government in the next few weeks so there will be data and it is likely to show inflation falling for the next few months and labor market continue its weakening path, and Trump is making deals that likely bring tariffs down which also earns him brownie points with the FOMC.” The message for crypto investors is that once data resumes, it will justify continued easing, not block it. The last part of Thompson’s post moves from mechanics to governance. He points directly at Powell’s expiring authority. “Powell’s term as Chair ends in 6 months and his successor will be known even sooner, creating a shadow Fed chair situation. It remains clear to everyone and the market that the new chair will be friendly towards and help effectuate the admin’s agenda. Given all of the above, it is difficult for me to paint a risk asset bear case based upon liquidity dynamics as all signs point to continued massaging to support markets.” That is the crypto punchline. Thompson is arguing that the institutional bias of the Fed, going into the succession window, is toward maintaining and managing liquidity conditions so markets do not crack. If that bias holds, it is inherently crypto-bullish, because it implies a policy floor under dollar liquidity at the exact moment the Fed is already preparing to halt balance sheet runoff and re-expand via bills. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.73 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points today and hinted that its balance-sheet runoff may soon end, arguably the bigger story for Bitcoin. With the overnight reverse repo facility nearly empty at roughly $14 billion, any further quantitative tightening now drains bank reserves directly. That shift means even small tweaks to QT have […]
The post Fed cuts 25 bps, but there is another hidden macro challenge looming appeared first on CryptoSlate.
After a quick jump toward $116,094 faded, buyers showed up near $112,500 while analysts watched $120,000 as the level that could clear the way toward $143,000.
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is fast approaching, and the bets are already pouring in as to what it would mean for the Bitcoin and crypto industry. The last FOMC meeting took place in September, when the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates down to 4-4.25% after months of no rate cuts. With this setting the tone, the expectations that another rate cut could be on the way are getting louder, with the FedWatch Tool showing a high percentage. Market Expects Another Rate Cut To 3.75-4% The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, October 29, 2025, and there is already a major clamor around what the Fed is planning on doing. The current market headwinds point to a favorable outcome for risk assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with expected rate cuts. Related Reading: Here’s What The XRP Open Interest Reset Means For The Price Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing that the probability of a rate cut has risen to 98.3% as of the time of this writing. This leaves only a 1.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will actually leave rates at their current levels, and there is zero chance that there will be a rate hike. A reduction in the rate cuts is good for businesses all around, as lower interest rates mean better loan terms and increased spending and borrowing. Thus, it will increase the participation in the markets, from consumer goods to the stock market, and then make its way into newer markets such as Bitcoin and crypto. Expectations For Bitcoin And Crypto Are Getting Higher A rate cut by the Federal Reserve aligns with the more pro-crypto stance that the United States has been moving in since President Donald Trump was elected. Last week, the president pardoned the Founder and former CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, after he previously pled guilty to money laundering violations back in 2024. Zhao has since served a 4-month stint before the pardon from Trump came. Related Reading: 100% Of Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Remain Untouched, Is There Still Room To Run? With the US embracing Bitcoin and crypto again, a rate cut will only further the ascent, allowing more investors to get into the market as liquidity frees up. The initial announcement has been known to trigger a rapid increase in the market. But as the news settles, the crypto market is expected to continue to rise in response. However, nothing is certain until the FOMC meeting is complete and the announcement is made. For the Bitcoin and crypto market to remain bullish, inflation will also have to be reduced, as an increase could trigger more conservative stances from investors. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000. Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000. Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000. The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle. Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market. According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A rare confluence of macro catalysts will put risk assets—and by extension crypto—on edge this Friday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will publish the delayed September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 24, even as most federal data remain frozen by the ongoing government shutdown. In a short notice, the agency underscored the exceptionality of the move and added that “no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services.” Crypto Bulls On Alert The timing is unusual on two counts. First, CPI is rarely a Friday print; The Kobeissi Letter noted via X that it would be the first Friday CPI since January 2018. Second, it lands five days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 28–29, compressing the policy-reaction window for the only marquee data. As Adam Kobeissi framed it: “Something unusual is happening this week: On Friday, we are receiving CPI inflation data DURING the US government shutdown… Not only is it 5 days before the October 29th Fed meeting, but it is the first time CPI data will be reported on a Friday since January 2018.” Related Reading: Has The Crypto Treasury Bubble Burst? Tom Lee Thinks So Against that backdrop, crypto strategist Nik Patel captured prevailing risk-tone logic in a morning note via X: with scarce data in a “speech-heavy” week, any print that leans above survey “will be of significance.” He argued: “Would even expect a moderately above consensus inflation print to be welcomed by the markets — I would like to see inflation breakevens bottom out here and turn higher again (and make no mistake the Fed will still be cutting into this and this combination would be bullish risk). Growth, Inflation continues to be what I expect of the next 6 months but right now we’re chewing through a period of fears around both.” The Macro Backdrop To understand why this particular CPI matters for crypto assets, consider the near-term inflation trend and the state of the Fed debate. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August after 0.2% in July; the year-over-year rate accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7%. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY. Back-to-back prints earlier in the summer had suggested headline inflation was stabilizing in the high-2s: June CPI ran at 2.7% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly gain, and July matched 2.7% YoY while core posted its largest monthly increase since January. The August re-acceleration nudged debate away from a straight-line disinflation narrative and toward a more nuanced view—one sensitive to tariffs. Related Reading: Crypto Bulls Smell Blood: SOFR–RRP Spread Hints QT Pivot By October The Fed preview is therefore unusually binary—even if the meeting dates themselves are conventional. The central bank’s October 28–29 gathering is live, with rates markets leaning toward another quarter-point cut, followed by a more contested December. But the data blackout has amplified CPI’s leverage over the policy narrative, which is why a single release can swing the perceived odds of both the October move’s size and the guidance for year-end. All of this collides with crypto’s macro-beta reality. When liquidity expectations improve—via easier financial conditions and falling real yields—large-cap tokens typically outperform; when policy turns cautious, crypto’s duration-like characteristics can cut the other way. That’s why the market is latched onto the shutdown-Friday CPI quirk. The bottom line for crypto participants is straightforward. Friday’s CPI is not just “another inflation print.” It is a rare Friday release, arriving in a data drought five days before an FOMC decision, with PMIs and sentiment hitting hours later. If it cools meaningfully, easing expectations could firm into month-end. If it surprises hot and re-validates August’s firmness, markets may still attempt to spin it as growth-positive—as Nik Patel suggested—so long as the Fed signals it will keep cutting. Either way, by compressing signal and policy into a single news cycle, the shutdown has turned one morning into the fulcrum for October’s crypto narrative. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.71 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Markets brace for the Fed’s Oct. 29 FOMC decision amid shutdown and U.S. jobs market and inflation uncertainty, with crypto and stocks vulnerable to sharp downside moves.
The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025 has landed—25 basis points on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the last macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can “just focus on the charts,” sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg higher into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a classic altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally… It’s 25 basis points,” he said. “Now the market’s going to digest it.” Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next? The policy backdrop he’s reacting to is straightforward: the FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by a quarter point to 4.00%–4.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the move as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to additional easing this year. The decision drew an 11–1 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger, 50 bps cut—an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish direction—while the Board’s implementation note reset key administered rates effective Sept. 18. Markets read the statement and projections as signaling scope for further cuts into year-end. Related Reading: Crucial Ten Days Ahead For Crypto: Will They Ignite Mega Altcoin Season? From here, Mayne’s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin’s most recent upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects price to “push above the mid-range” toward a range high around $120,000–$121,000, where he will watch for rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence defined by a weekly swing-failure pattern (SFP) and an H12 breaker. If momentum stalls there, he plans to short into a washout to clear out built-up leverage—“HYPE made another all-time high today. PUMP has tripled in the last two weeks… there’s some leverage in the system”—and then buy the dip for what he calls the last parabolic leg of the cycle. “Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long,” he said, adding that a shallow retest in the $110,000–$111,000 area or a deeper sweep of recent lows would both be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive. If, instead, price grinds through the $120,000 s with no signs of exhaustion, Mayne says he has “no problem” flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high once strength is confirmed intraday—an approach that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (“Once this thing broke out aggressively… you’re looking for longs”). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the short he’s eyeing is counter-trend—“a pullback in an uptrend”—and the prime objective remains to position for the next impulsive advance. When Will The Crypto Market Top? Timing-wise, he situates the prospective cycle top in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a pattern in which Bitcoin’s final vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 region is followed by distribution while altcoins reprice higher—the archetypal altseason. “This parabolic leg I think would be the last leg of the bull run,” he said, before outlining notional alt targets consistent with a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000–$7,000, Solana $300–$500, Dogecoin $0.50–$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a last BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH “very quickly,” then Q4 “mania” with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes. Related Reading: December 2024 Crypto Crash Signal Returns As Altcoins Go Wild The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on concepts familiar to discretionary price-action traders. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the trap line at range edges; H12 breakers and order blocks frame high-probability reaction zones; and fair-value gaps guide where liquidity vacuums might fill during a corrective flush. On structure, he insists the weekly trend remains up, so any short is tactical and any deeper dip must resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the former highs to keep the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: “If we spend any significant time back below [the 2024 all-time high], it’s really bad… I’m probably going to reassess my thoughts.” Macro, in Mayne’s view, now recedes to the background. The rate cut may have helped pull forward some September strength—“you could argue… the up move we’ve seen on Bitcoin… is in anticipation of this rate cut”—but with the decision made and Powell hinting there “could be another one… there could be two,” his emphasis is squarely on execution: wait for price to trade into the $120,000s and signal weakness for the clean counter-trend short; or, absent weakness, wait for the breakout continuation and ride it. Either way, he’s explicit about the north star for the coming weeks: “Focus on Bitcoin… Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long… Then altseason.” At press time, BTC traded at $117,176. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price action has managed to break above $115,000 after spending the majority of the past two weeks trading below this level. Bitcoin is now holding firm above $114,000, and the leading cryptocurrency has regained momentum over the past week that shows signs of renewed bullish strength. According to technical analysis, a hidden bullish divergence is forming with the recent price action this week, and this could be the setup that pushes Bitcoin to new price highs. Bitcoin Revealing Hidden Bullish Divergence Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick timeframe chart, which was posted on the social media platform X by crypto analyst CrypFlow, shows that Bitcoin could be on track to resume its journey of new all-time highs. Related Reading: Here’s How The Bitcoin Price Macro Correction Could Play Out Next Last week’s close means that Bitcoin has confirmed a higher price low in the weekly timeframe following the pullback that began after its August all-time high. As shown in the weekly candlestick chart below, this low is a higher low compared to June’s low below $100,000. On the other hand, while the price printed a higher low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted a lower low in the same time frame. This mismatch between price and momentum creates what is called a hidden bullish divergence, which is a technical pattern that suggests bullish continuation. The weekly candlestick chart shared by CrypFlow shows Bitcoin defending an important support level around $114,000 and is now on two bullish weekly candlesticks. According to the analyst, if this divergence is confirmed as expected, it could provide the foundation for Bitcoin to push to new highs again. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading 5.7% below its current all-time high of $124,128. Stochastic RSI Flips Bullish The stochastic RSI indicator on the weekly timeframe has just flipped bullish, though confirmation will depend on how Bitcoin closes in the coming sessions. The last time such a bullish flip occurred on the weekly timeframe was in April, just before Bitcoin kickstarted a run that saw it close at bullish prices for seven consecutive weeks. A similar playout could see Bitcoin register at least five more bullish weekly closes in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Flashes ‘Rarest Signal’ Ever, Is A 100% Rally Possible? The upcoming macroeconomic events could introduce volatility into the crypto industry, and this is worth keeping an eye on. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on Wednesday, and expectations are running high that policymakers will announce an interest rate cut of 25 basis points or possibly even 50 basis points. An interest rate cut could have different effects, and history has shown that this could shift investor sentiment toward Bitcoin and other large-cap cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,040, already playing out bullish continuation by being up by 9% from its September open. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin climbed above $117,000 during the early trading hours today, its strongest level since early August, as traders positioned around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, due later today, will define the risk landscape for the rest of the year. Market expectations of an easier […]
The post Bitcoin price at a ‘hinge point’ as traders await Fed decision today appeared first on CryptoSlate.
With the Federal Reserve set to announce policy on Wednesday, September 17, a closely followed trader has laid out a precise, level-by-level playbook for navigating Bitcoin’s next move. In his weekly “Market Outlook #51,” published on September 15, Nik Patel (@cointradernik) for Ostium Research maps out both long and short triggers around a tight cluster of resistance at $117.5k–$120k and a “line in the sand” support at $112k—frameworks he argues should contain BTC’s path through the FOMC and into quarter-end. How To Trade Bitcoin Into September FOMC Nik’s higher-timeframe read starts with a strong weekly close that reclaimed the August open near $115.3k and, crucially, kept price above $112k. “This is now the line in the sand for short-term bullishness,” he writes, warning that a weekly close back below would reopen the route to July’s local lows around $107k and, in a deeper flush, the $99k swing low. To the upside, he highlights $117.5k as the next inflection; a clean acceptance over $120k would set up a swift run at all-time highs, where $123k is the first major cap on the daily timeframe. Into the event, his directional bias remains conditional rather than dogmatic. On the long side, he favors a liquidity sweep early in the week: “On the long side you want to see a sharp flush lower… into $113.5k, where you could layer bids with invalidation on a daily close below $112k,” aiming for a reaction back to $117.5k (TP1) and $119k (TP2) into the FOMC. Related Reading: Analyst Raises Red Flags On Bitcoin Price: Allegations Of Market Manipulation Conversely, if BTC grinds higher without that flush, his short plan is to “short above $119k pre-FOMC,” then “add… on acceptance back below $117.5k post-FOMC,” with $112k as the first target and scope to trail for lower lows if structure weakens. The trader concedes the next couple of weeks are “a lot more unclear… with many variables,” but his base case still envisions “the second half of Q4 will be very strong.” The setup lands as BTC churns around $115k ahead of the decision—a zone multiple analysts have framed as pivotal. Heading into the weekly close, market commentary stressed that a sustained reclaim of ~$114k is a prerequisite for renewed momentum, with one widely tracked technician arguing, “The goal isn’t for Bitcoin to break $117k… The goal is for Bitcoin to reclaim $114k into support first.” Over the weekend and into Tuesday, BTC’s price action remained pinned in that band, keeping both the upside break toward $119k–$123k and the downside sweep into $113.5k–$112k on the table. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Short Squeeze Before Long Trap In October Macro context heightens the stakes. Markets broadly expect the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25 bps on September 17, shifting the target range from 4.50% to 4.25%—a baseline Nik explicitly builds into his calendar. Yet traders are equally focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance and the updated “dot plot,” which will shape the path for additional cuts into year-end. While a cut is priced, the tone—whether the Fed signals a shallow or accelerated easing path—could be the catalyst that resolves BTC’s tight $114k–$119k coil. Positioning provides further texture to Nik’s plan. He flags three-month annualized basis and the split between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, along with concentrated one-week and one-month liquidation pockets just below spot and above the recent range highs—context for why he prefers either reactive longs on a downside flush or fades into strength near $119k–$120k if derivatives chase the move. The framework leans heavily on acceptance/rejection around well-defined levels rather than attempting to front-run the policy outcome itself. Bottom line: in the Ostium playbook, bulls want a controlled dip that holds $112k on a daily closing basis and then forces a reclaim of $117.5k on the way to $119k–$123k; bears get their best shot if price runs late into $119k–$120k pre-FOMC and then loses $117.5k on the reaction. With BTC glued to the mid-$110ks and the market already bracing for a quarter-point cut, the catalyst may come down to Powell’s nuance. At press time, BTC traded at $115,427. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
This week is shaping up to be critical for the broader crypto market, marked by a prevailing sense of caution as prices consolidate ahead of their next direction. According to market analysis firm Bull Theory, the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on the horizon, and its outcome will largely hinge on the economic data released this week. Stability Or Further Pressure For Crypto? The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two primary mandates: to maintain inflation around 2% and to support employment levels. Currently, the landscape appears challenging, with rising unemployment juxtaposed against persistent inflation. Related Reading: Solana Rally in Sight? Traders Eye Breakout That Could Push SOL Toward $250 On September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the previous year’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). This annual revision often reveals downward adjustments, indicating weaker job growth than initially reported. For instance, last August, the revision was significantly lower than expected, with a downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs—the second worst in US history. This prompted the Fed to implement a more aggressive 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points. If this repeats, it could raise the likelihood of another substantial cut, which would be viewed positively for liquidity and, by extension, the crypto market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report, scheduled for September 10, will provide insights into inflation at the business level. A PPI reading that meets or falls below expectations is likely to boost market sentiment, while a higher-than-expected figure could dampen it. Last month, the PPI was unexpectedly high, coinciding with Bitcoin’s (BTC) peak near $124,000 before it began to cool. A softer PPI this time could grant the Fed more leeway to implement cuts, alleviating pressure on cryptocurrencies. Three Scenarios For Fed’s Upcoming Rate Cut Decision Following that, on September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation gauge, will be released. If CPI readings come in hotter than anticipated, it complicates the Fed’s decision-making process. For the crypto market, a CPI result at or below expectations would be the most favorable outcome. Also on September 11, initial jobless claims will be reported, indicating how many individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week. A higher-than-expected figure would signal weakness in the job market, thereby increasing pressure on the Fed to act. As all eyes turn to the FOMC meeting, the data collected this week will be instrumental in determining whether the Fed opts for a 25 basis point or a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Related Reading: Dogecoin Leads Altcoin Rally Amid ETF Speculation: Is $1.50 the Next Big Target? There are three potential scenarios that could unfold. The first, a larger cut of 50 basis points, is likely if the NFP is sharply revised downwards, CPI and PPI data are soft, and jobless claims are high. This scenario, which indicates a rapidly weakening economy, could provide robust liquidity support for the market. However, the Bull Theory estimates this outcome has a 20%-25% probability. The second scenario, a standard cut of 25 basis points, appears more probable, with a 70%-74% chance. This would occur if NFP revisions are moderately weaker, CPI is slightly elevated, and jobless claims remain steady. While this would still be positive for crypto, it may not yield the same liquidity burst as a 50 basis point cut. Lastly, a scenario where the Fed pauses or delays changes is also possible. The firm asserts that if NFP data holds steady, CPI readings are hotter than expected, and jobless claims decrease, the Fed might take a more cautious approach, potentially leading to short-term pressures and further consolidation for Bitcoin and altcoins. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The majority of participants at the Fed's last monetary policy meeting saw inflation risk outweighing employment risk.
Crypto and related stocks are sliding as traders brace for the July FOMC meeting minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, fearing a hawkish Fed stance.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been under considerable pressure from the White House to ease monetary policy.
The Bitcoin price surge above $106,000 this week has reignited bullish sentiment across the market, with analysts suggesting that the stars are aligning for a rally to a new all-time high. From shifting geopolitical tensions to a major regulatory pivot in the United States (US), multiple macroeconomic factors appear to be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive move. Ceasefire And Rate Cut Buzz Fuel Bitcoin Price Optimism Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price briefly slipped, triggering over $200 million in leveraged long liquidations. However, this dip proved short-lived as the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded swiftly above $100,000 following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a total ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This sudden de-escalation helped ease global market anxiety, pushing Bitcoin past $106,000 and oil prices sharply down from $77 to under $70. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Reveals Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Feels Different As Crypto Enters ‘New Era’ Simultaneously, Optimism is building that the US Federal Reserve (FED) could begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. Sharing new data by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, crypto analyst CW disclosed that the odds of a FED rate cut have increased to 18.6% by July 30 during the scheduled FOMC meeting. The report reveals that 81.4% of market participants believe the FED to keep rates unchanged at their current level. However, FedWatch’s data indicates growing expectations for a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, with 79% betting on a reduction and only 21.3% anticipating no change. Notably, lower interest rates generally benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and boosting investor sentiment. With geopolitical tensions easing and a possibly looser monetary policy on the horizon, Bitcoin could gain further momentum, potentially climbing to $110,000. Supporting this bullish forecast, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally toward a new ATH of $110,000 following its recent reclaim of the key $103,500 level. Although a retracement to around $102,500 remains possible, Bennett believes that once BTC cleans up support around $103,400, formed during Monday’s expansion, the next move could be parabolic. Regulatory Win Solidify Bitcoin’s Position In TradFi Beyond anticipated rate cuts and ceasefire announcements, the US FED recently made a landmark policy shift that could have profound long-term implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. By removing “reputational risk” as a factor in evaluating crypto firms’ access to bank servicing, the FED is effectively ending a key pillar of Operation Checkpoint 2.0—a campaign that restricted over 30 crypto and fintech companies from traditional financial infrastructure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Deviates From Global M2 Money Supply, Is The Bull Run Over? This recent change clears the way for greater institutional involvement in crypto. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have also followed suit, green-lighting crypto activities for banks and allowing them to participate in the digital assets market without prior approval. Together, these moves mark a regulatory pivot that not only legitimizes the crypto industry but could also accelerate demand and capital inflows into Bitcoin, potentially boosting its already significant valuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price was little changed and traded just above $104,000 as policymakers expect stickier inflation and slower growth.