Data shows the cryptocurrency derivatives market has suffered a large amount of liquidations following Bitcoin’s rally to its new all-time high (ATH). Bitcoin Has Set A New Record Above $75,000 Today The moment Bitcoin investors have been waiting for these past few months has finally happened, as the number one cryptocurrency has set a brand […]
Markets are bracing for post-election volatility, which may take Bitcoin as high as $100,000 before 2025.
The 2024 US election signals a positive shift for crypto and economic freedom, with Coinbase’s CEO expressing optimism for regulatory change and industry growth.
Here’s what the legendary Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MRVRV) Ratio says about whether Bitcoin is currently overheated or not. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Risen Alongside The Latest Rally In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about the MVRV Ratio of Bitcoin. The “MVRV Ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The market cap here is just the total valuation of BTC’s circulating supply at the current spot price. The other metric, the realized cap, is also a capitalization model for the asset, but it doesn’t work so simply. Related Reading: Ethereum Volatility Soon? Derivatives Exchanges Receive 82,000 ETH In Deposits Unlike the market cap, this model doesn’t put the same price on every coin in circulation; rather, it assumes that the last price at which a token was transacted represents its ‘true’ value. The previous transaction of any coin is likely to represent the last point it switched hands, so the realized cap essentially takes the sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. One way to look at this model is as a measure of the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. The market cap, in contrast, signifies the value that these holders are carrying in the present. When the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market cap is above the realized cap right now. Such a trend suggests the investors as a whole are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the indicator being below this mark implies the average holder is currently underwater as they are holding their coins at a value below the price they bought them for. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio had surged to significant levels back when BTC had broken the November 2021 all-time high (ATH) in the first quarter of the year. An increase in the metric has also followed in the new ATH break, but the metric is clearly not near the same high as earlier in the year yet. Historically, the cryptocurrency has made tops whenever the indicator has risen to high levels. As the quant has marked in the chart, however, how high is a ‘high’ MVRV level has been declining over the last few cycles. If the trendline drawn by the analyst holds, then the current cycle should see a top around when the MVRV Ratio would hit a value of around 3. At present, the metric is at 2, so there may still be a while to go before Bitcoin becomes overheated. Related Reading: Dogecoin Rockets Up 12%, But This FOMO Signal Could End Rally As for why the asset tends to get overheated when the MVRV Ratio shoots up, the reason is that investors become increasingly likely to take part in profit-taking the larger their gains get. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,100, up almost 8% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Investor appetite for risk-on assets like Bitcoin is growing, with Donald Trump projected to win the US presidential election.
Bitcoin has observed a rally beyond the $71,000 level during the past day as on-chain data shows demand for the coin has notably increased. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Has Spiked To Notable Positive Levels Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the demand for Bitcoin has appeared to be on the rise again recently. […]
“Bitcoin is currently being used as a liquid proxy to hedge a Trump win,” which was previously seen as “underpriced,” according to an analyst.
Bitcoin (BTC) is closing in on its all-time high (ATH), bringing excitement among bulls. However, seasoned analyst Peter Brandt advises caution, urging bulls to stay excited yet avoid becoming dogmatic. Bitcoin Breakout Yet To Be Confirmed After a lackluster start to October – a historically bullish month for Bitcoin – the digital asset is exchanging hands at $71,789, just about 3% shy of its March 2024 ATH of $73,737. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $100,000 By February 2025? Analyst Explains Why While the prospect of a new ATH has the crypto market on its feet, veteran analyst and trader Brandt thinks multiple conditions must be fulfilled to determine a confirmed breakout. In a post published on X on October 29, Brandt cautioned BTC bulls against over-enthusiasm without technical confirmation of a breakout. Specifically, the analyst warned the bulls about the limitations of diagonal patterns – particularly those with slanted boundary lines – on trading charts. Brandt explained that although “nicking” of a boundary line might excite the bulls, it does not represent a confirmed breakout. For a breakout to be genuine, Brandt has set the target price at $76,000, stating that Bitcoin’s daily chart needs to close above this level, with an average true range (ATR) measurement confirming this move above Bitcoin’s previous high set in March. For the uninitiated, the ATR is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility by calculating the average of true price ranges over a set period, typically 14 days. It reflects how much an asset moves, helping traders gauge potential price fluctuations and set more informed stop-loss or profit targets. Further, Brandt notes that such a breakout must be validated by a close on Sunday at midnight UTC, to ensure it is not a fake breakout that ends up trapping bullish investors. On the weekly chart, Brandt highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent advance “has only nicked important chart points,” rather than breaking through with conviction. The analyst concluded that BTC’s price has a substantial journey ahead before decisively forming a new support level. Important To Overcome $71,000 – $73,000 Resistance Level Another crypto analyst, 0xAmberCT, highlighted the significance of the strong resistance zone around $71,000 to $73,000. However, the analyst shared several reasons why this time might be different. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Traders See $80,000 BTC By November End, US Election Outcome Irrelevant First, the high odds of victory for the Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump might provide the much-needed fuel to the wider crypto market to start its Q4 2024 rally. At the time of writing, Polymarket gives Trump a 66.5% chance of victory compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 33.5%. A Trump win is a net positive for the digital assets industry. In addition, the recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the heightened prospects of a “soft-landing” are expected to increase the market’s risk-taking appetite. Risk-on assets like BTC are expected to benefit in a lower interest rate environment. The analysts’ assessment aligns with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s prediction that BTC may “melt-up” to $80,000 in Q4 2024. However, crypto analyst Cole Garner recently shared that BTC might head lower before achieving a new ATH due to tightening on-chain liquidity. BTC trades at $71,789 at press time, up 4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and Tradingview.com
After weeks of significant volatility and uncertainty, Bitcoin is currently at a turning point. The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, has led to erratic price movements, causing traders to navigate a landscape filled with anxiety. Despite this tumultuous environment, key data from CryptoQuant indicates that […]
Lekker Capital chief investment officer Quinn Thomspon says this week’s Bitcoin dip shows a “clear invalidation” when compared to previous price stumbles.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Mining Hashrate has remained at its recent lows, indicating that miners may not be confident about the coin’s rally. Bitcoin Mining Hashrate Has Moved Sideways Around Lows Recently The “Mining Hashrate” refers to a metric that keeps track of the total computing power miners have currently attached to the Bitcoin […]
Bitcoin emerged as an investors’ favorite this past week, recording a price rise of 4.07% according to data from CoinMarketCap. During this price surge, the premier cryptocurrency traded as high as $66,000, a level last reached in late July. However, despite this price gain which extends Bitcoin’s “unusual” positive performance in September, certain market conditions indicate concern over the sustainability of this rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Here’s Why Why Bitcoin’s Rally Is In Danger In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Wenry outlined several reasons Bitcoin may not sustain its current upward trend. Firstly, Wenry notes that there is a lack of interest from retail investors in Korea and the US as indicated by a stagnant Taker volume. This status is different from previous Bitcoin price rallies where retail activity in these countries was prominent. Therefore, the analyst postulates that the current price surge is devoid of new investments and is likely driven by a select group of market participants. Furthermore, Wenry highlights there is currently a high level of Open Interest in the BTC market, but the asset continues to move in a range-bound market i.e. consolidation due to a low spot volume. The combination of both factors reflects the absence of a significant buying interest in Bitcoin despite the present rally. Another point of concern raised by Wenry states the current Bitcoin price gain is caused by a rise in derivatives trading due to macroeconomic factors such as the reduction of interest rates. The crypto analyst pinpoints a lack of equal support from the spot market therefore, the rally is likely a “temporal uptick rather than a structural market shift”. In conclusion, Wenry states that the absence of significant spot market volume, a stagnant Taker volume, and low retail participation all threaten the longevity of Bitcoin’s current rally. Notably, if retail investors remain away from the market, Bitcoin would likely remain in consolidation or even experience a price correction. Related Reading: Analyst Backs Bitcoin Hitting $290,000 In Bull Run – Here’s Why Bitcoin To Break All-Time High In Q4? On another front, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe has backed Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high price of $73,750 in the last quarter of 2024, following a similar trajectory with gold. Van de Poppe’s prediction seems quite plausible as Q4 is traditionally the most bullish moment for Bitcoin. In addition, the renowned analyst is also backing altcoins to experience a 3-5x price surge in the same period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $65,810 following a 0.40% gain in the last day. In tandem, the asset’s daily trading volume is down 53.16% and valued at $65,649. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has shown bullish momentum during the past day, but an analyst has pointed out how the asset may be in a high-risk zone now due to the Open Interest trend. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Seen A Rapid Increase Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Open Interest has just surged to high levels. The “Open Interest” is an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of BTC-related positions currently open on all derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Rallies 34%, But Will FOMO End The Rally? When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the derivatives market right now. As the overall leverage in the sector increases when this trend occurs, it can lead to higher asset price volatility. On the other hand, the indicator heading down suggests the derivatives contract holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. This kind of trend can lead to more stability for BTC. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest had cooled off to relatively low levels earlier in the month as the asset’s price crashed. With the recovery in the coin, however, the indicator has been noting growth again. The indicator is now high, potentially implying the market has become overleveraged. As mentioned earlier, a high metric value can lead to more volatility for BTC. The reason behind this is that mass liquidation events can become more probable to occur at these levels, making the price act more volatile. On paper, the volatility emerging from an Open Interest increase can take the coin in either direction, but BTC has shown a consistent pattern in the past year. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the indicator entering into the same zone as now has generally turned out to be bearish for Bitcoin in this window. Related Reading: Render (RENDER) Shows 23% Surge As Sharks & Whales Continue To Buy In these instances, the Open Interest surge had occurred alongside price surges, indicating that long positions had been piling up. The latest growth in the indicator has also naturally come similarly. “We’re in a high-risk zone, and in my opinion, it’s not the best time for fresh long positions,” notes Maartunn. It remains to be seen how Bitcoin develops in the coming days and if it will hit the top, just like it did during those other instances. BTC Price Following the rally in the past day, Bitcoin has managed to find a break above the $66,000 level for the first time in almost two months Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has surged recently, suggesting it could at least partially be behind the latest price surge. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Has Now Assumed Notable Positive Values As pointed out by CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno in a new post on X, the BTC Coinbase Premium Index has shot […]
Data shows the social media users have yet to show excessive hype around the latest Bitcoin rally, a sign that could be positive for its sustainability. Bitcoin Sentiment Ratio Has Spiked, But Value Still Not Too High According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, Bitcoin Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) has remained low through the latest rally. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive Sentiment vs. Negative Sentiment Ratio,” which, as its name suggests, measures the ratio between the positive and negative comments around BTC being made on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: These Altcoins Are Seeing High Whale Interest After Fed Rate Cut To separate the posts/threads/messages on these platforms between positive and negative, Santiment’s indicator uses a machine-learning model. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the social media users are making more posts expressing a positive sentiment than a negative one. On the other hand, it being under 1 suggests bearish messages are the norm on these platforms. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Positive Sentiment vs. Negative Sentiment Ratio over the last few months: As the above graph shows, this Bitcoin indicator has observed an uplift alongside the latest recovery run in the cryptocurrency’s price. This rally has come as the US Federal Reserve has announced an interest rate cut. The indicator is currently decently above the neutral mark, meaning that positive posts notably outweigh the negative ones. Historically, the asset has tended to move in a direction opposite to what the crowd is expecting, with the probability of the contrary move going up the stronger this expectation becomes. A very bullish market can be a warning sign for the BTC price. Despite the recent surge in sentiment, FOMO is not yet at a level where it would be a problem. The chart shows that the previous spikes in the indicator that occurred around the tops for Bitcoin were of a significantly large scale. The last few months have also seen the indicator generally maintain a positive level, so the metric’s current value isn’t even that out of place when compared to the norm. “Markets can roll until we see a bullish sentiment spike similar to what we saw during the April 19th and May 21st tops,” notes the analytics firm. If FOMO does end up spiking to high levels in the coming days, BTC could encounter another top. Related Reading: Crypto Shorts Suffer $147 Million Squeeze As Bitcoin Returns Above $63,000 When that happens, another foray into the negative sentiment zone could be to wait since, as highlighted in the graph, the last two such instances proved to be profitable buying points into Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a surge of almost 6% over the past week, bringing its price back to the $63,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
The on-chain analytics firm Santiment has explained how this could be the signal that leads into the next bull run for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Miner Supply May Hold Key To Start Of Next Bull Rally In a new post on X, the analytics firm Santiment has discussed the trend in the “Supply held by Miners” metric. […]
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Mining Hashrate has just set a new all-time high (ATH) despite the asset’s bearish trajectory. 7-Day Average Bitcoin Mining Hashrate Has Shot Up Recently The “Mining Hashrate” refers to a metric that keeps track of the total amount of computing power that the miners as a whole have connected […]
Analysts say upcoming rate cuts could be a boon for Bitcoin’s price action but the market is still in “wait and see” mode.
Bitcoin’s summer illiquidity could carry on into September, but lower interest rates could kickstart the real bull market in early 2025, according to analysts.
Bitcoin's 2024 bull run was mainly driven by institutional inflows, which could be the key to unlocking the next leg up.
On-chain data suggests minimal resistance for Bitcoin, which could facilitate a rally toward a new all-time high (ATH). Almost All Bitcoin Investors Are Back In The Green With Latest Recovery According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, resistance looks light in the price ranges ahead. In on-chain analysis, the strength of support and resistance levels is based on the number of investors who last bought their coins at them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Likely To Go On Till Mid-2025: CryptoQuant CEO The chart below shows what the cost basis distribution on the Bitcoin network looked like at the time of the analytics firm’s post. In the graph, the size of the dot corresponds to the addresses that purchased their coins inside the corresponding range. As is apparent, when IntoTheBlock shared the data, the price ranges ahead all had small dots, while those below had big ones. This suggested that few investors left in the market had their cost basis higher than the spot price. That is, there weren’t many holders in loss left anymore. Since then, however, BTC has seen some pullback into the first of the big circles. Nonetheless, at the current price, most holders should still be in the green. To any investor, their cost basis is naturally an important level, and they may be more likely to make a move when a retest of it happens. Investors in loss may look forward to such a retest to exit at their break-even to escape away with their initial investment. A few investors selling at their break-even isn’t of any consequence to the entire market, but if a large amount of them share their cost basis inside a narrow range, then perhaps a reaction large enough to cause fluctuations in the price can emerge. This is why the strength of support and resistance price levels is related to the number of investors who have their cost basis in on-chain analysis. As investors in loss may react to a retest of their cost basis by selling, large red dots can be potential sources of resistance. However, BTC has no significant obstacles left, so the price could be set to travel to higher levels. As investors in loss react by selling, those in profit can look at the retest of their acquisition level as an opportunity to buy more instead. Thus, green dots can be support centers for the cryptocurrency. As BTC has fallen to one of these green dots, it’s possible the coin can use the cushion to spear ahead at the relatively light red ranges. Related Reading: Shiba Inu, XRP Forming Bullish Divergence, Analytics Firm Reveals Something to keep in mind, however, is that while there may not be many investors desperate to exit at their break-even, there is also a different obstacle BTC could face: profit-taking. With an extreme majority of investors in profits, many would likely become tempted to harvest some of their gains as the coin surges toward a new ATH. It remains to be seen whether demand would be able to absorb this potential selloff. BTC Price Bitcoin had neared the $70,000 level earlier in the day, but the coin has since plunged towards the $67,800 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
A quant has explained how a rally could be possible for Bitcoin in this third quarter of 2024 as miner selling pressure has disappeared. Bitcoin Miners Appear To Have Stopped Their Selling In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about how the selling pressure concerns from miners have resolved recently. There are two on-chain indicators of focus here. Related Reading: Shiba Inu ‘Underbought,’ While Bitcoin ‘Overbought’ Recently: Santiment The first of these is the “Miner to Exchange Transactions,” which, as its name suggests, keeps track of the total number of transactions that are going from miner-related wallets to exchange-affiliated ones. When the value of this metric is high, it means the miners are making a high number of deposits to exchanges. Generally, the main reason why these chain validators may transfer their coins to these centralized entities is for selling-related purposes. As such, this kind of trend can have potential bearish consequences for the market. Low values of the indicator, on the other hand, could either be neutral or bullish for the asset, as they imply miners are possibly not participating in any selling through these platforms. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Transactions over the past year or so: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Transactions had been rising between late 2023 and end of April of this year. This uptrend in the metric had taken place as the price of the cryptocurrency itself had been going through a rally. It would appear that the miners saw the rally as an exit opportunity, as they gradually upped their selling pressure as the price went towards a new all-time high (ATH). It’s also apparent, however, that since the peak in April, the indicator’s value has observed a very rapid decline. Thus, it’s possible that miners’ appetite for selling has cooled off. Exchanges aren’t the only way miners sell, however, as over-the-counter (OTC) desks are also a popular option among these chain validators. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the Total OTC Desk Balance, which is an indicator that keeps track of the non-exchange and non-miner wallets that miners send to when they want to sell. From the graph, it’s visible that the Total OTC Desk Balance had been at relatively high levels just earlier, suggesting that these entities that are likely OTC desks had been holding a large number of coins. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Surges 18%, But Watch Out For Crowd FOMO In the past couple of days, though, the indicator has seen a sharp decrease, potentially implying that the coins that had piled up in these wallets have now found a buyer. Thus, it would seem that miners have eased off their selling pressure on exchanges and the coins that they had been waiting to sell on OTC desks have also now been absorbed. “Sufficient conditions have been created to continue the upward rally again in the third quarter of 2024,” notes the quant. BTC Price Bitcoin has shown some recovery over the last 24 hours as the asset’s price has now rebounded back above the $63,700 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has observed a surge back above the $71,000 level during the past day as buyers appear to have returned on Coinbase. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Has Witnessed A Large Positive Spike As explained by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a post on X, the BTC Coinbase Premium Index has registered a high […]
On-chain data shows Bitcoin could have significant support between $66,900 and $68,900, which may help provide solid ground for a fresh surge to higher levels. A Large Amount Of Investors Bought Their Bitcoin Between $66,900 & $68,900 According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, BTC is currently floating above a major demand zone. In on-chain analysis, the strength of any support or resistance level is based on how much “demand” was present at it. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Realized Volatility’ Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next Below is a chart that shows the various Bitcoin price ranges near the current spot value and how they compare in terms of the total amount of the asset the investors purchased. Here, the size of the dot correlates to the total number of tokens that were last acquired at the corresponding price range. It would appear that, out of these zones, the levels between $66,900 and $68,900 currently host the cost basis of the greatest amount of BTC. More than two million addresses have acquired 1.1 million BTC inside this range. Since the current BTC spot price is above these levels, all investors who buy there will make slight profits. Investor cost basis is important in the on-chain analysis because the level has special psychological significance. A potential retest of it can result in a flip of the profit-loss balance for the holder. As such, investors may be prone to making some moves when a retest like this takes place. A holder carrying losses before the retest (that is, the retest is happening from below) may be tempted to sell for fear that the price will go down in the future. On the other hand, an investor in the green before the retest may have reason to believe the price would go up again and, thus, could decide to accumulate more. When retests of price ranges thick with investors, one of these reactions may arise on a scale that could be relevant for the wider market, therefore, major demand zones below can act as support points, while those above can act as resistance blocks. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Rise To $79,600 If This Holds Bitcoin has a large support range of $66,900 to $68,900 right now, which could help cushion any falls should the asset’s price decrease. From the chart, it’s also apparent that, at the same time, the Bitcoin ranges ahead are thin with holders. This could, in theory, provide the ideal conditions for a rally towards higher levels. BTC Price Bitcoin surged past the $70,000 level earlier in the day, but the asset has since retraced to $69,100. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained how the data of an oscillator for Bitcoin could suggest the cryptocurrency still has plenty of room to run in this rally. Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator Could Imply Potential For Further Upside In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo discussed what the latest trend in the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Oscillator for BTC might suggest regarding what could be next for the cryptocurrency. The VWAP is an indicator that calculates the average price for any asset by taking into account the price fluctuations themselves and weighing the values against the trading volume. Related Reading: XRP & Cardano Whales Load Up Bags: Preparation For Altcoin Rally? This means that the prices of the assets where there was a higher volume of trading have a higher weightage in the average than those with only a low amount of volume. Traditionally, the VWAP is a technical analysis indicator that considers the information available through spot exchanges. In the context of the current topic, the VWAP uses the on-chain volume of Bitcoin instead, which is readily viewable by anyone thanks to the blockchain’s transparency. The indicator of interest here isn’t the VWAP but rather the VWAP Oscillator, as mentioned earlier. This metric keeps track of the ratio between the BTC spot price and the VWAP and presents it as an oscillator of around zero. The chart below shows the trend of this Bitcoin indicator over the past couple of years. The above graph shows that the Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator has been in negative territory for the past couple of months. However, the metric’s value has been rising recently, so if it continues on this trajectory, it might approach the neutral mark shortly. In the chart, Woo has highlighted a trend that the indicator and the cryptocurrency’s price have historically shown. It seems that whenever the metric has formed a bottom in negative territory and rebounded back to the upside, the asset has enjoyed some bullish momentum. The resulting price surge may last until the indicator reverses into the positive territory and forms a top. That hasn’t happened for the VWAP Oscillator this time yet. “Still a lot of room to run before reversal or consolidation,” says the analyst. “Hate to be a trapped Bitcoin bear right now.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Not Out Of Danger Yet, NVT Golden Cross Warns In other news, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. pointed out in an X post, retail investors have bought $135.7 million worth of the asset over the past month. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $65,000, up 5% over the last week. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, woocharts.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could be positioned for new all-time highs (ATHs) if it can break through this on-chain resistance level. Bitcoin On-Chain Data Could Suggest This Level Holds Major Resistance In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed Bitcoin’s current on-chain resistance. In on-chain analysis, the strength of support and resistance levels is based on the total amount of cryptocurrency last acquired at each level. Below is a chart for Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which shows the supply distribution across the various price levels based on where the investors bought their coins. From the graph, it’s visible that in terms of the levels currently ahead of the spot price, the $66,250 mark stands out as it hosts the cost basis of over 2% of all Bitcoin UTXOs. Generally, the cost basis is a special level for any investor, and they are naturally more likely to react when it is retested, as it can lead to a flip in their profit-loss situation. The spot price retesting a level won’t produce much reaction if only a few investors share their cost basis around the level. Still, if many holders bought there, the cryptocurrency could see visible effects upon a retest. Investors who are losing money may look forward to such a retest to exit out at their break-even point, as they may fear that the asset will fall back down again in the future, so getting away with their initial capital would seem like the ideal decision. As such, a retest of a level dense with UTXOs from below can lead to a selling reaction in the market, making these levels points of strong resistance for Bitcoin. Since the $66,250 level appears to be where the most coins were purchased out of the levels ahead, this level could be the toughest one to break for the cryptocurrency. On the brighter side, though, the levels after this point are relatively thin. “Once BTC breaks past this level, it will be positioned for new all-time highs!” explains the analyst. The market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has also discussed about on-chain cost basis distribution in an X post today. As revealed by the firm, around 10% of all addresses acquired their coins between the current spot price and the all-time high the asset set back in March. This would naturally mean that 10% of the total addresses, equivalent to 5.16 million, are in the red on the Bitcoin network. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to move in its recent range, with its price currently trading around the $62,800 level. Featured image from Erling Løken Andersen on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
A quant has pointed out that a popular on-chain indicator for Bitcoin gives the asset the green light to experience bullish price action. Bitcoin Puell Multiple Has Observed A Plunge Recently As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple is currently in the “safe to buy zone.” The “Puell […]
An analyst has explained what path Bitcoin might need to follow to surge to a new all-time high (ATH) target of $92,190. Bitcoin Needs To Breach This Resistance Barrier To Rise To New ATH In a new thread on X, analyst Ali discussed whether the BTC price has hit the top. The one signal the analyst has pointed out that may point towards the top has been the massive scale of profit-taking that the market has seen recently. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance: Traders Preferring The OG To Dogecoin & Other Altcoins Ali is waiting for another confirmation before the top can be confirmed. In the scenario that the top gets validated, these are the targets the analyst has marked based on on-chain data. The distribution of UTXOs across the various price levels | Source: @ali_charts on X The above chart shows the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data from Glassnode, which tells us how many coins were last bought at what price levels. Generally, the cost basis is an important level for any investor, so they are likely to show some reaction when a retest of it happens. This reaction is the largest when many investors share their cost basis around the same level. When this retest happens from above, the holders may respond by buying more, as they could see the drop as a dip opportunity. As such, large cost basis zones below the current price can prove to be centers of support. “If the market top is confirmed, BTC could drop toward $51,530 or even $42,700!” notes Ali, given that these two levels are the next major support lines for the coin. The analyst says, however, that if BTC can instead break the $66,250 level, which is a source of major resistance right now since these loss holders may be desperate to exit at their break-even, then this bearish outlook could become invalidated. An on-chain pricing model could provide some hints about what might happen when such a break occurs. The trend in the MVRV Pricing Bands for BTC over the past few years | Source: @ali_charts on X The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands is a model that, in short, tells us about where the different multipliers of the average cost basis of the entire market currently lie. The chart shows that the market cost basis is currently at $28,800. Historically, three multipliers of this metric have been relevant for the asset: 0.8x, 2.4x, and 3.2x. The 0.8x level is where bottoms occur, while the 3.2x line is a probable spot for tops to form. Bull rallies in proper have occurred after a breach of the 2.4x level. At present, the 2.4x level lies at $69,150. “By rising above $66,250, Bitcoin will gain the strength to push towards $69,150. And if this resistance barrier is breached, BTC can advance toward a new all-time high of $92,190,” explains Ali. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Foreshadowed Recent Price Drops, Quant Reveals This ATH target is based on the fact that the 3.2x level is equivalent to $92,190 at the moment. It remains to be seen whether the top is already in and BTC would retest the lower levels or if more is left to this rally. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $61,100, down more than 7% over the past week. Looks like the price of the coin has plunged over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
A historical pattern currently forming in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator could suggest that a top may be near for the asset, if not already in. Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Is Forming A Historical Top Pattern Right Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about a pattern regarding the SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss right now. Related Reading: Ethereum To See Fresh Move Soon? What Futures Data Says When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that profit-selling is dominant in the market currently. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the average holder is moving coins at some net loss. In the context of the current topic, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a different version called the SOPR Ratio. The name may be a bit confusing as SOPR already contains a “ratio,” but the latter ratio here corresponds to the fact that this indicator compares the SOPR of two Bitcoin cohorts: the long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). These investor groups make up for the two main divisions of the BTC market done based on holding time, with 155 days being the cutoff between the two. The STHs are those who bought within the past 155 days, while the LTHs include the HODLers carrying coins for longer than this timespan. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have turned around towards the downside recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin SOPR Ratio had been heading up throughout 2023 and early parts of 2024, but recently, the metric has hit a top and reversed its direction. Whenever the SOPR Ratio is higher than 1, it means the LTHs, who are generally known to be resolute hands, are participating in a higher degree of profit-taking than the STHs. It would appear that as BTC had observed its rally and approached a new all-time high (ATH), these diamond hands had started harvesting some of the gains they had earned over their long holding time. And once the price set a new ATH, these investors participated in peak profit-taking. Since then, their profit-selling has been dropping off, although they are still harvesting notably higher gains than the STHs. In the chart, the analyst highlights how this pattern has been repeated at different points in the asset’s history. While the scale of the peak LTH profit-taking has been heading down over the cycles, it’s still true that the metric’s top has coincided with tops in the price during each of them. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $1: Analyst Thinks Dream Milestone Could Be Hit In Coming Weeks As the line drawn by the quant suggests, it’s possible that the latest peak in the metric may have in fact been the top for this cycle. This is only, however, assuming that the pattern of diminishing returns in the indicator holds to the exact degree judged by the line. It’s possible that the peak will still be higher than the current levels, while at the same time being lower than the previous cycle’s peak, thus still being in-line with the historical Bitcoin pattern. Whatever the case be, though, the fact that the SOPR ratio has apparently hit a top could still be a bearish signal, if only in the short term. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making some steady recovery over the last few days as its price has now surged back above $66,100. Looks like the price of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest has observed a notable cool off recently, something that could be positive for the rally’s hopes. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Cooled Down From Recent Overheated Levels As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Open Interest has registered a retrace recently. The “Open Interest” here […]