When Gary Gensler left the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2025, Bitcoin was trending higher, and many expected a more favorable regulatory backdrop to drive further upside. Instead, BTC has fallen sharply to a zone that complicates a once-popular narrative that regulation, or Gensler specifically, was the primary force holding the market back. Bitcoin’s Price May Be Saying More About Markets Than Regulators The market reaction to regulatory change hasn’t played out the way many expected. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has mentioned on X that when Gary Gensler stepped down from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2025, Bitcoin was trading around $109,000. Today, it sits closer to $75,000. Related Reading: Crypto Markets Rattle As Bitcoin Sinks Under $77K Following Oil Spike Cowen argues that one major reason the crypto markets have suffered is that market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grift age of crypto. During the period, the influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital, with liquidity flowing into speculative assets instead of strengthening the broader ecosystem. While people celebrated Gensler’s exit, it marked a turning point in the industry, with BTC only marginally going higher before entering a bear market. According to Cowen, now that some people are celebrating Jerome Powell’s removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it is a sign that history could repeat itself. They celebrated it in the short term, which will mark a turning point in credibility for the Fed in a few years. If the Fed becomes another cabinet within the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution. In a few years, participants will realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him. Liquidity Sweeps Into FOMC Are Becoming A Familiar Setup Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and it’s not bullish in the short term. A crypto trader known as Max Trades highlighted that following the last seven FOMC meetings, BTC dropped sharply after each decision. Related Reading: Bitcoin Setup Suggests Liquidity Hunt Before Next Directional Move What makes the current setup notable is how closely it mirrors the conditions seen before the March meeting. Back then, price rallied into the event, repeatedly sweeping local highs while building a large pool of liquidity below. That structure marked the local top, followed by a 13% correction that erased most of the prior move. Heading into the current interest rate decision, these factors are in place, with BTC price trading just below a major higher-timeframe resistance level, adding another layer of confluence to the downside scenario. However, if this same scenario plays out similarly, the BTC price could point to the formation of another local top around this event. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Crypflow has explained what the Bitcoin relief rally above $71,000 means for the leading crypto and hinted that BTC could still drop lower. This came as the analyst alluded to the previous bear markets and how recent rallies are mirroring price action in past cycles. Analyst Warns Relief Rallies Are Getting Weaker Amid Bitcoin’s Rally Above $71,000 In an X post, Crypflow stated that Bitcoin relief rallies are weakening and that every bear market has them. He noted that during the 2014 bear market, BTC saw relief rallies of up to 100% while in 2018, it saw rallies of between 50% and 90%. These relief rallies weakened during the 2022 bear market, as Bitcoin saw relief rallies of only up to 45%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes ‘Dangerous’ Macro Fractal – What To Expect For Price The Bitcoin relief rallies in this cycle have again weakened, with the largest rally so far 26%. Crypflow noted that each cycle, these relief rallies lose strength, but that doesn’t mean that BTC can’t go higher in the short term. However, he warned that there is still significant resistance above, suggesting the leading crypto could drop further before it finds a bottom. Bitcoin recently rallied above $73,000 as the U.S.-Iran peace talks took place over the weekend. However, the leading crypto has since retraced to around $71,000 as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down. Trump also announced that the U.S. will impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz following the failed peace talks. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated in an X post that Bitcoin will very likely remain in a bear market, despite short-term countertrend rallies. He added that the hardest part of mid-term years is just not believing in every single rally. A Large Downside Move In The Coming Weeks Crypto analyst Doctor Profit stated that he expects a large downside move in the coming weeks and that it should not take much longer, as the move is very close. The analyst added that he also expects a large trap for bulls, which market makers will use to push Bitcoin lower into the $50,000 range and even further afterward. Related Reading: Higher Before Lower: How Bitcoin Price Will Get To $240,000 Doctor Profit declared that Bitcoin has not bottomed out and that the only question is how high the relief rally will be before it continues its downward momentum. He stated that the probability of a relief rally to $76,000 before rejection is extremely high. Meanwhile, the probability of a rally to between $79,000 and $84,000 is medium. The analyst also predicted a massive crash for the S&P 500 within the next two months. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $71,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst CrypFlow has revealed that the signal that started the last 2 altcoin seasons has returned. The analyst pointed to bullish indicators of the ‘Others’ chart against Bitcoin, which signal that capital may be flowing to lower-capped tokens. Signal Points To Another Altcoin Season as Capital Flows From Bitcoin In an X post, CrypFlow stated that the signal that started the last two altcoin seasons is forming again. He explained that every major altcoin expansion has started the same way, with the others/Bitcoin chart breaking out of a falling wedge, and that then the Squeeze Momentum turns green. Related Reading: Expert Says There Will Be No Altcoin Season In 2026, Here’s Why The analyst remarked that when these two indicators align, altcoins start to massively outperform Bitcoin, as seen during the 2017 and 2021 altcoin seasons. However, he noted that this cycle was different as the Squeeze Momentum stayed red for years after the 2021 bull cycle peak. CrypFlow noted that this meant a prolonged Bitcoin dominance, with no real altcoin season happening since the last one in 2021. That could change soon, though, as the others/BTC chart has broken out of another multi-year falling wedge and momentum is rising again. The analyst added that if the Squeeze Momentum flips green, the same conditions that triggered previous altcoin seasons could return. CrypFlow also mentioned that when that happens, the biggest moves usually start when nobody expects them. Blockchain Center data shows that it is not yet altcoin season, with the index currently at 49. The altcoin season index needs to hit 75 to be classified as an altcoin season, with 75% of the top 50 coins by market cap outperforming Bitcoin during that period. Bitcoin continues to lead the way at the moment, with altcoins mirroring its price action. Notably, BTC’s dominance is currently at 58%, a level it has maintained since the start of the year. Crypto analyst Javon Marks also echoed CrypFlow’s sentiment, noting that similarities and macro trends in altcoin setups continue to point to altcoin season being in its early stages. Another Sign That Points To An Altcoin Season In an X post, crypto analyst CW revealed that Ethereum is forming an 8-year-long convergence and will break through it during this bull market. The analyst declared that this altcoin season will be at the level of the 2017 cycle, not the 2021 cycle. “Investors do not remember how strong the 2017 altcoin season. The 2026 Alt Season will be stronger than 2021,” he added. Related Reading: The 8-Year Ethereum Convergence That Says An Altcoin Season Stronger Than 2021 Is Coming Amid predictions of an imminent altcoin season, market expert Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the focus should be on Bitcoin. In an X post, he said that over time, everything in the cryptoverse eventually bleeds back to Bitcoin. He added that after people have engineered all sorts of different things, but that after a cycle or two, it all just bleeds “back to the king.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continue to struggle, with BTC dropping to as low as $70,000 over the weekend. This comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, with no sign of a ceasefire happening anytime soon. Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Struggle as Iran War Drags On Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain under pressure as the war in Iran enters its third week. Tensions escalated over the weekend with attacks on the U.S. embassy in Iraq, according to a Fortune report. The U.S. embassy had indicated that these attacks were carried out by Iran-aligned terrorist militia groups. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Far From Over? Analyst Shares How Painful Bear Markets Can Get Notably, the attacks on the U.S. embassy came amid America’s airstrikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil terminal for the country. The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices notably fell following the U.S. strikes on the Island. The strikes sparked concerns that it could further drive oil prices higher, which is bearish for BTC and ETH. Brent crude oil futures have already risen to as high as $106 today, according to TradingView data, in response to U.S. strikes on Kharg Island. Oil prices could also continue to rise as the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, remains effectively closed. About 20% of the global oil supply passes through the Strait, which is why its closure could spark a massive supply shock and lead to new highs. Market analyst XWIN Research warned that Bitcoin could face significant outflows if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which would put pressure on not just BTC but the Ethereum price and other crypto assets. In an interview on ABC’s ‘This Week,’ U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that there are no guarantees that oil prices would fall in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are also facing pressure, with the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. There are also concerns that the FOMC could further delay in cutting rates due to the rising oil prices, which threaten to drive inflation higher. Peter Brandt Predicts That A Rally May Be On The Cards Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin could see a relief rally even amid the U.S.-Iran war. In an X post, he shared an accompanying chart showing BTC could reach as high as $88,000. BTC and the Ethereum prices may already be seeing this relief rally, with these crypto assets up over 3% and 7%, respectively, today. Related Reading: Ethereum Topples Bitcoin By 3x In Major Metric, But Can Price Still Reclaim $5,000? Crypto analyst Julio Moreno had earlier warned that the crypto market is still in a bear market despite any potential relief rallies for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Expert Benjamin Cowen echoed a similar sentiment, noting that BTC often spends more time going up than down. He added that when the flagship crypto goes down, it goes down very quickly, sets a low, and then trends up for a week before going lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Leshka has explained why it is unlikely that the Bitcoin price has bottomed even as it continues to attempt a recovery above $70,000. His analysis also aligns with predictions from analysts such as Doctor Profit, who predict that BTC could still drop to $40,000. Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Bottomed In an X post, Leshka noted that the Bitcoin price has never bottomed after a drawdown of just 47%. He further remarked that every bear market in history saw at least 78% drawdown from the top. BTC notably saw drawdowns of around 87%; 84%; and 73% in 2013, 2017, and 2021, respectively. Related Reading: Pundit Reveals Why Bitcoin Is Headed For Another Crash To $42,000 As such, the analyst declared that the Bitcoin price is not yet at a bottom and that another flush to the downside is approaching. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could still drop to around $50,000 before it finds a macro bottom in this market cycle. Leshka noted that the leading crypto continues to retest the $72,000 resistance and has failed to hold above it on every attempt. Based on this, he predicted that a drop to $55,000 is next. Crypto analyst Doctor Profit also recently warned that the Bitcoin price hasn’t found a macro bottom, though he predicted that BTC could form a local bottom between $57,000 and $60,000. In the long term, he still expects Bitcoin to drop below $50,000 and into the low $40,000, which he believes will mark the macro bottom. Doctor Profit stated that the leading crypto could find a bottom between September and October later this year. In the meantime, he predicts that the Bitcoin price could see a relief bounce or continue trading sideways before recording another leg to the downside. BTC Is In The ‘Relief Rally’ Phase In an X post, crypto analyst Julio Moreno noted that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has reached 30, its highest level since late October. The index phase has switched from extra bearish to bearish while bull flags have turned on for exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity growth, and price momentum. However, he warned that the Bitcoin price is still in a bear market and is simply seeing a relief rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Candlestick Structure That Led To Crash To Below $20,000 Last Cycle Just Appeared Again Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that in bear markets, the Bitcoin price will often spend more time going up than going down. However, when it goes down, it drops very quickly, then sets a low, then trends back up for a few weeks to months before dropping again. “You can see the change in market structure from bull to bear,” he added. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Merlijn has revealed that Bitcoin has just re-entered the DCA zone, indicating it’s a good time to buy BTC. The leading crypto is already staging another rebound, rising to the psychological $70,000, which has so far proved to be a major resistance level. Bitcoin Reenters DCA Zone As Price Eyes Another Rally In an X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has just entered the DCA zone on the rainbow chart and that BTC is now back in the DCA zone. He noted that a massive rally has followed every time this has happened. At the same time, this is when retail investors have panicked and sold. The analyst added that this chart has never been wrong. Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed In another X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has reached a critical level, especially as it continues to trade within a tight range between $60,000 and $70,000. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could rally above $120,000 if it holds this support level. However, there is the possibility of a larger decline if it fails to hold this current range. The analyst also revealed that Bitcoin is mirroring the 2021 top exactly with the same sequence, lower highs, and the same structure. He noted that 2021 ended with one final flush before the recovery. Merlijn said the $60,000 level is the last line of defense, and a hold above it would mean buyers are taking control. However, a drop below this level would put liquidity clusters below as the next targets. Bitcoin saw a violent recovery following the final flush below, and the analyst is confident that this time won’t be different. Crypto analysts like Benjamin Cowen have predicted that BTC could recover by the second half of this year as part of the 4-year cycle. Peter Brandt Predicts A Breakout For BTC Veteran trader Peter Brandt has predicted that Bitcoin could break out to the upside. In an X post, he said, alluding to BTC’s daily and weekly charts, that “the Big Banana is forming a Little Banana — and it indicates there is about to be a Banana Split.” His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could rally to $82,500 by April. Related Reading: Samson Mow Calls Bitcoin ‘Exponential Gold’, Predicts What Will Happen In the long term, Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could rally to $120,000 and possibly $280,000. His prediction comes just days after he admitted that BTC may be in the midst of a bullish reversal. The veteran trader said that he viewed Bitcoin’s rally to $74,000 back then as potentially a significant change in price behavior since the October top last year. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,900, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Pure has indicated that the blood moon could be having an impact on the trajectory of the Bitcoin price. The analyst drew attention to historical trends, suggesting this might be the case and that a rally above $100,000 may be on the cards. A Bitcoin Price Rally Above $100,000 May Be On The Cards In an X post, Pure drew attention to a potential correlation between the Blood Moons over the last 12 years and the Bitcoin price action. Based on this, the analyst’s chart suggested that BTC could still rally above $100,000 soon enough, potentially reaching the current all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. The chart also showed that there had typically been at least three Blood Moons in each of the past three BTC cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Just Ramped Up Into The Billions Again, Is It Time To Get Back In? The third Blood Moon in each of those past cycles had notably marked a bottom for the Bitcoin price, with the leading crypto reaching new highs afterward. Now, a third Blood Moon is set to occur in this cycle after the ones that occurred on March 14 and September 7 last year. As such, there is the possibility that BTC could bottom again if history were to repeat itself. Pure also noted that the next Blood Moon after tomorrow will occur after three years, indicating that it is the Blood Moon that could mark the bottom since none other is going to happen in this cycle. The analyst also admitted that this could mean that the max pain is about to end with a potential bullish reversal on the horizon for the Bitcoin price. BTC Still In A Bear Market Regardless Of A Relief Bounce Market expert Benjamin Cowen reiterated that BTC is still in a bear market, though a relief bounce may be on the cards amid U.S.-Iran tensions. In an X post, Cowen noted that risk assets often sell off, then bounce as major conflicts begin. If a rally for the Bitcoin price occurs, the expert noted that it will likely result in a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Officially Entered Bearish Territory, And It’s Headed To $35,000; Chart Shows Cowen also noted that bear markets tend to take a while to play out. His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price bounced after the war between Russia and Ukraine began in 2022, but formed a lower high, leading to a deeper long-term decline before it bottomed. Notably, BTC bottomed year-end 2022 back then, which also coincides with Cowen’s prediction that BTC may bottom in the fourth quarter of this year. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $66,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst XForce has assured that the Dogecoin price can still reach the psychological $1 level. However, he suggested it may not happen soon, as he alluded to technicals that indicate a single pathway for the meme coin to reach this level. Dogecoin Price Can Reach $1 In The Coming Years In an X post, XForce stated that the Dogecoin price still has the potential to record a 10x move in the coming years, potentially reaching $1 from its current level. He further noted that the idea is narrowed to a single primary bullish pathway, in which Wave 4 for DOGE is a potential triangle. Related Reading: Can Dogecoin Lead Meme Coins Back To Glory? The Index That Paints A Gloomy Story His accompanying chart showed that the Dogecoin price could rally to as high as $1.3 on Wave 5, a move which could play out by 2028 based on the technical setup. This notably coincides with a period that analysts such as Benjamin Cowen have predicted could be the peak of the next bull run. Meanwhile, the chart also showed that a drop below $0.05 could invalidate this setup for DOGE. For now, XForce noted that the Dogecoin price continues to hold above the major low and could be the latest remaining meme coin to go on a major run. DOGE is notably back above the psychological $0.10 level, following the recent crypto market rally, led by Bitcoin. However, activity in the derivatives market suggests that traders are still bearish on the meme coin. CoinGlass data shows that the long/short ratio is below 1, indicating that most traders are bearish. Derivatives trading volume has dropped by over 13%, and open interest is down by over 12%. However, the options trading volume is up by over 32%, and options open interest is up by 72%. A Rally To $5 Could Be On The Cards Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus has suggested that a Dogecoin price rally to $5 could be on the cards. In an X post, the analyst stated that DOGE may have room to push to the $5 price level if this cycle plays out like previous ones. Bitcoinsensus noted that in the first cycle, DOGE recorded a 95x surge while it saw a 310x rally in the second cycle. This third cycle is now playing out, which could lead to another parabolic surge. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Momentum Oscillator Drops To Levels That Triggered Previous 21,000% Rally Bitcoinsensus noted that in past cycles, the Dogecoin price has thrived during risk-on environments, typically after long stretches of price consolidation before the breakout. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the meme coin could record this parabolic rally between now and 2027. At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.10, down over 12% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period. Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates. Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month. BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Coinvo has revealed that the Bitcoin price has just hit a 15-year trendline following its latest crash to around $70,000. He declared this a buying opportunity, noting that the trendline has historically held on four prior occasions in past cycles. Bitcoin Price Hits 15-Year Trendline Against Gold In an X post, Coinvo stated that the Bitcoin price has hit the same RSI trendline on its gold chart as in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. He further noted that this development has historically created a buying opportunity, as BTC has consistently outperformed gold when this happens. He urged market participants not to miss this as it is the “biggest opportunity” they have ever had. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Test Resistance At $80,600 After Bottoming At $74,000 His statement comes as the Bitcoin price crashed to a new yearly low at around $70,000, with the leading crypto asset now down over 19% year-to-date (YTD). Based on Coinvo’s analysis, this may mark the bottom for BTC despite concerns that the crypto market may be entering a deep bear market. In another X post, the analyst stated that the Bitcoin price is set to repeat the entire 2023 rally. He noted that the same pattern as in 2023 is playing out now, with BTC hitting the 200-day EMA, which marked a bear-market bottom back then by flipping into support. Coinvo added that most people are too focused on the bearish noise, but urged market participants not to let it obscure the truth, as Bitcoin is going higher. However, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the Bitcoin price could still drop lower, having crashed below its April 2025 low. He noted that in the previous cycles, when BTC fell below the 100-week SMA, it crashed straight to the 200-week SMA before any relief bounce occurred. BTC Could Still Crash To As Low As $63,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared an accompanying chart showing that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as $63,000. This came as he noted that the nature of BTC’s decline, with eight consecutive days of lower lows and highs, indicates campaign selling rather than retail liquidation. He noted that he has observed this pattern several times and that it is difficult to determine when it ends. Crypto analyst PlanB highlighted potential bear-market scenarios for BTC. He stated that an 80% drawdown from the current all-time high (ATH) could put the Bitcoin price at $25,000. Furthermore, a drop to the 200-week MA and current realized price could mean a crash to between $50,000 and $60,000. Meanwhile, a crash to the previous cycle’s ATH could mean that $70,000 is the bottom. Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $70,700, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Recent market data has shown that Bitcoin has been trading at an extended discount on Coinbase. Over the past several months, this negative premium, where BTC prices on Coinbase sit below the international average level, has remained consistent. Such prolonged discounts have historically coincided with periods of market uncertainty or late-stage corrections. How Coinbase Premium Remains Negative For Months Bitcoin has been trading at a persistent discount on Coinbase for the past 3 months. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out on X that this typically reflects large ETF outflows and sustained selling pressure from the US-based investors, which has put pressure on a discount to appear. Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows These conditions are not unusual and have appeared nearly every market downturn or larger range. Thus, this broader market recovery needs the support of ETF inflows and renewed bidding from the US investors to surge higher. For this reason, monitoring the Coinbase premium and discount is important to know when the price flips around. A stronger directional trend combined with steep discounts or premiums often reinforces the prevailing market move. A Relief Rally Could Buy The Market Time Until October Bitcoin has now broken below its April 2025 low, placing the market at an important inflection point. The CEO and founder of ITC_Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, noted that if the price fails to bounce soon, this could turn into a difficult midterm year. However, if the price can bounce back, it would likely provide the market several months of relief, pushing price action to October and potentially aligning with a more durable bottoming process. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Lack Of New Capital Leaves It Vulnerable To Continued Selling Pressure According to Benjamin, the bearish narrative has been dominant for an extended period, which increases the probability of a countertrend rally that could temporarily restore confidence among bulls. Meanwhile, Benjamin has cautioned against attempting to trade such moves. Furthermore, countertrend rallies often occur unexpectedly, not when market participants are actively anticipating them. A sweep of prior lows would offer short-term relief, even during the bull market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC broke below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price moved straight down to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief occurred. From a broader perspective, Benjamin emphasized that the optimal time to sell BTC was late last year, not during panic-driven sell-offs in a midterm year. His focus remains on the larger cycle, suggesting that late Q3 to early Q4 will be a more favorable window to move real money back into the market. Until then, it is just traders trying to make money during difficult times, attempting to trade the support and resistance levels. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Maelius has alluded to Bitcoin’s historical performance to provide insights into how low the flagship crypto could drop before it reaches a bottom. He also alluded to the BTC.d, which he explained shows that BTC has yet to reach a bottom. How Low Can Bitcoin Drop Before Finding A Bottom In an X post, Maelius shared a chart indicating that Bitcoin could still drop below $60,000 before it finds a bottom. The analyst also highlighted the BTC dominance (BTC.d), which he noted usually crashes after the flagship crypto has topped, but that has not yet happened. He alluded to the 2017 and 2021 cycles, noting that they saw massive sell-offs and a bottom in BTC.d shortly after Bitcoin topped. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Says The Bitcoin Cycle Is Already Over, Here’s Why Based on his comments, Maelius also raised the possibility that Bitcoin may not have topped, which is why the BTC.d isn’t crashing yet. He remarked that fractal analysts say BTC has topped, but questioned why BTC.d hasn’t had a proper sell-off yet and is only just positioned to have one relatively soon. The analyst stated that one could argue Bitcoin hasn’t topped yet and that it’s still possible the flagship crypto could run toward previous highs, even as BTC.d still has to crash. He added that BTC.d had never been this high or looked this bearish when BTC was already in a bear market. In an earlier X post, the analyst stated that BTC was trying to confuse both sides. However, he remarked that higher prices are inevitable and will come soon enough, as the structure remains bullish, and that, until proven otherwise, bears cannot do anything about it. Until then, he urged market participants not to give up on their holdings by selling them at a discount. Analyst Reiterates That BTC Has Topped Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has reiterated that Bitcoin has topped, noting that VTC has always topped in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. He suggested that the focus now should be on getting through this bear market, which he believes will last until the end of this year. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals How Far Bitcoin Price Will Crash If The Uptrend Doesn’t Continue He then alluded to a previous outline he had made on how things could play out for Bitcoin up until 2042. Cowen believes accumulation will occur between 2027 and 2028, which will then usher in the uptrend between 2029 and 2030. He predicted that BTC could reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2032, before another bear market between 2033 and 2034. The analyst predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million between 2040 and 2042 after the next bear market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,900, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
The Federal Reserve has officially brought its multi-year quantitative tightening program to a close, freezing its balance sheet at about $6.57 trillion after draining more than $2.3 trillion from the system since 2022. The Federal Reserve’s decision to formally end quantitative tightening has created a sense of anticipation across the crypto market. Liquidity inflows have shaped every major crypto cycle, and removing the multi-year drain on liquidity is expected to set the stage for healthier crypto market conditions and see the Bitcoin price push above $100,000 in the coming days. Policy Shift Meets A Market Still Searching For Direction The Fed has frozen its balance sheet at roughly $6.57 trillion after three years of balance-sheet reduction. Treasury runoff has stopped on December 1, though mortgage-backed securities will continue declining slowly. Related Reading: Finance Expert Says Bitcoin Price Growth Is In ‘Google 2017’ Phase, What This Means Ending QT means that the Fed is stepping away from the rapid balance-sheet reduction that tightened financial conditions throughout 2023 and 2024. The move comes after bank reserves fell to levels that threatened short-term funding stability, and the Fed made the move to halt any further liquidity drain. Crypto investors are expecting the end of QT to relieve some of the selling pressure that has contributed to the crypto industry in recent months. This is due to historical comparisons of how the industry played out in previous ends to QT. In 2019, when the Fed last ended QT, digital assets bottomed within weeks and then entered a strong recovery phase. That period represented a decisive low for altcoins and preceded Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $3,800 to $29,000 over the next year and a half. Interestingly, the entire crypto market’s short-term behavior is starting to show signs of bullishness. Particularly, the entire market is up by 7.2% in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin leading the charge. However, cryptocurrencies are facing a different macro environment today, and the outlook is whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can go on another extended bullish rally in the coming months. Why Is Bitcoin’s Reaction Delayed? Ending QT is a meaningful turning point, but it does not automatically flood the system with fresh liquidity. Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, offers one of the clearest explanations for what to expect. Related Reading: Financial Strategist Debunks Prediction That Bitcoin Price Will Reach $220,000 In 45 Days He noted that in 2019, the Fed announced QT would end on August 1, but the balance sheet continued falling through mid-August because previously scheduled Treasury maturities had not yet settled. It wasn’t until early 2020 that Bitcoin started to experience explosive gains. According to Cowen, the same dynamic applies now. Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could continue edging lower for a few more weeks, meaning the first meaningful uptick in liquidity may not show up until early 2026. This delay suggests that traders hoping for an immediate boost or a quick return of Bitcoin above $100,000 are simply ahead of the cycle. The tightening phase has ended, but the actual recovery in liquidity has yet to begin. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Colin has revealed that the Bitcoin price has flashed a death cross, which he noted was bullish for the flagship crypto. This comes amid BTC’s recent decline, which has erased all its year-to-date (YTD) gains. Bitcoin Price Flashes Death Cross, Marking Potential Bottom In an X post, Colin stated that a death cross just flashed for the Bitcoin price, with the “ironically” bullish indicator triggering at the same time that BTC tagged the lower boundary of its megaphone pattern. The analyst noted that this is a bullish setup from this point forward, as the death cross often marks bottoms. He indicated that this is likely the bottom, as BTC has ended at the lower end of the megaphone pattern channel. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Won’t Crash To $92,000, Here’s Why Colin remarked that these factors combined indicate a high likelihood of a move up for the Bitcoin price from its current level. He added that a bounce is likely in the short term. However, the analyst noted that the bigger question is whether this would be a bounce to new all-time highs (ATHs) or just a relief rally on the way down in a bear market. Regardless of what happens, he is optimistic that an upward move will occur in the short term. Colin also alluded to the fact that the Federal Reserve will end quantitative tightening (QT) by December, a move which he described as another bullish catalyst for the Bitcoin price. This move is expected to inject more liquidity into the BTC and possibly spark higher prices for the flagship crypto. The Fed could also cut rates again at the December FOMC meeting, which would be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. Another Analyst Confirms Death Cross Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also confirmed that the Bitcoin price just had a death cross. He noted that prior death crosses have marked local lows in the market. However, he added that the death cross rally fails when the cycle is over, which could be the case this time if the bull market is over. Related Reading: Why Are The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Down Again? Cowen stated that the time for the Bitcoin price to bounce if the cycle is not over would start within the next week. The analyst further remarked that if no bounce occurs within one week, another dump is likely before a larger rally back to the 200D SMA, which he claimed would mark a macro lower high. Meanwhile, market analyst Subu Trade shared data on how BTC has reacted after historical death crosses. The last death cross occurred in April this year, and the flagship crypto recorded a 22% gain following it. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,100, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is once again testing a critical support zone, and speculation is whether September’s weakness will mark a turning point. With historical patterns often showing September dips followed by strong Q4 rallies, the market now faces a pivotal moment that could decide the next major move. Bitcoin Returns To The Bull Market Support Band In his latest update on X, Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin recently touched the bull market support band just a few days before September officially began. This level has historically acted as an important pivot zone, where the bulls often attempt to hold the line and defend broader market structure. Maintaining strength above this band could play a vital role in preserving bullish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Hopes Rise – Can Bulls Push It Past Resistance? He explained further that August established a local high, suggesting that September may be shaping up to form a local low. In his analysis, this type of alternating cycle between highs and lows is common in Bitcoin’s price behavior, especially during transitional phases of the market. Benjamin Cowen also pointed out that the beginning of September already saw Bitcoin trading lower than any level observed in August. This underlines how quickly market conditions can shift, with price action flipping from bullish in late summer to more cautious as the new month begins. The analyst stated that the best-case scenario would be if Bitcoin’s monthly low had already been established on September 1st. If that is the case, bulls could regain confidence sooner rather than later, stabilizing price action around the bull market support band. Such development would enable a healthier market structure and potentially lay the groundwork for another leg higher as the month progresses. Historical Cycles Suggest Q4 Upside If Support Holds In his analysis, Benjamin Cowen explained that the ideal scenario for Bitcoin would be to hold steady at the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) throughout September. He noted that in previous bull cycles, including 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021, Bitcoin successfully maintained this level before climbing to new highs in Q4, making it a key historical pattern to watch. Related Reading: Bitcoin In Trouble? Exchange Reserve Spikes To Highest In Months Cowen further emphasized that if Bitcoin fails to sustain the 20W SMA, attention should shift to the 50W SMA, which has consistently served as a strong foundation during the ongoing bull market. This level remains a crucial safety net for maintaining broader bullish momentum, even if short-term weakness emerges. As of September 3, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $111,053, up 0.83% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of $111,716 and a low of $108,505, showing moderate volatility. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $73.2 billion, reflecting healthy market activity, while Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at about $2.22 trillion, solidifying its position as the leading cryptocurrency. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
According to a recent analysis by Benjamin Cowen, CEO and Founder of ITC Crypto, the crypto market has entered “Step 2” of his guide for 2025. The analyst pinpointed Ethereum (ETH) in his price chart, emphasizing that the second-largest cryptocurrency is set to decline further, in line with his earlier predictions. Step 2: Crypto Market Sells Off As ETH Goes Home Ethereum is currently experiencing widespread market sell-offs as investors react to its bearish price action and tightening liquidity conditions. Failing to meet investors’ expectations, the price of Ethereum has struggled to maintain strong momentum in this bull market. Related Reading: Crypto Market Remains Greedy Despite Bitcoin Price Crash To $94,000, Is A Recovery Coming? Cowen’s chart analysis suggests that the current downtrend aligns with the broader market cycle, where Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 60%, leading to capital flows from altcoins like Ethereum. The analyst announced that the crypto market is currently in the second phase of his guide for 2025’s market trajectory. In a previous X post on January 29, Cowen outlined a structured six-step roadmap for his 2025 market cycle theory. The first step highlights an increase in Bitcoin’s dominance to over 60%. This occurs when investors leave altcoins and move into Bitcoin, seeking stability amidst the volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market. During this time, Ethereum and most altcoins underperform due to the lack of interest and demand from investors. Now, in Step 2 of Cowen’s 2025 guide, the crypto market has entered a correction phase, with Ethereum declining sharply. Cowen claims that ETH will eventually “go home,” meaning the cryptocurrency will undergo a severe decline to long-term key support levels. In this second phase, the broader market also experiences a sell-off as investors take profit amidst volatility and ongoing declines in cryptocurrencies. Despite rising to $3,000 earlier in this bull market, Ethereum has failed to maintain positive momentum, recording steep declines as its price struggles to find stable support. According to data from CoinMarketCap, ETH is currently trading at $2,594, reflecting a massive 16.4% price crash in the last 24 hours. Over the past weeks, Ethereum has performed poorly, experiencing a sharp decline to new lows while other cryptocurrencies have gained momentum. The altcoin’s price has plunged to new lows, dropping by more than 27.6% in just a month. This downturn has also significantly impacted its market capitalization, which has fallen to $312.6 billion. Cowen’s 2025 Market Guide: What’s Next? In Step 3 of his market cycle theory for 2025, Cowen predicts that the Federal Reserve (FED) will shift its policy and end quantitative tightening, which has been draining liquidity from the financial markets. This decision is critical, as easing monetary conditions would pave the way for the analyst’s fourth step — a bullish phase fueled by market rallies. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ After Crash Toward $3,000 In the fifth step, Cowen predicts that macroeconomic conditions will deteriorate later in the year. This could include factors like inflation, interest rate, geopolitical stability, and others. The final step in his 2025 market cycle guide forecasts a full-blown recession. Cowen projects that this recession would lead to a bear market, aligning with historical midterm election year cycles, where markets tend to face deeper corrections. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Ether’s strength against Bitcoin “should go higher” over the next 6 to 12 months, according to a crypto analyst, following a stretch of underperformance.
Both retail and institutional adoption and interest in Bitcoin continue to see notable growth following the recent price upswing over the past week, which has led to a huge rise in BTC’s dominance over other cryptocurrency assets in the market. Bitcoin’s Market Dominance Almost Over With Bitcoin persistently witnessing a significant price rally, its dominance […]
Bitcoin is showing strong upward movement, surging all the way to the $70,000 price level. However, despite the renewed bullish momentum, there are several upcoming macro events to watch out for that could influence the price trajectory of BTC in the short term. Will Labor Market Data Release Signal Bitcoin’s Next Direction? Market participants are […]
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen expects Bitcoin dominance to make its “final move” to 60% either in September or, at the latest, by December 2024.
Amid turbulence surrounding the crypto market, popular founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Into The Cryptoverse Benjamin Cowen has taken the spotlight to shed his insights on the recent downtrend observed in the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair. Cowen’s views examine the complex relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin pricing and the potential for further downside risk. According to Benjamin Cowen, the ETH/BTC pair is currently on the downside, and the last 2 times that the pair declined, ETHUSD witnessed a steep decline of around 70%. Given that the crypto community has been eagerly anticipating an Altcoin season for the past 2.5 years, Cowen thinks it is crucial to warn the community that there is still a possibility of a downward movement. ETH/BTC Pair Rejected By The Bull Market Band Cowen has also confirmed that ETH/BTC is presently being rejected by the bull market support band, which he previously predicted days back due to a price pump. “I would expect it (ETH/BTC) to be rejected by the bull market support band, at least when looking at weekly closes ($0.053-$0.054),” he stated. He further noted that the pump appears to be mirroring the last cycle of rate cuts right before summer capitulation. Related Reading: Cracking the Crypto Code: ETH/BTC Signals The Next Altcoin Explosion – Here’s How Following the launch of Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Cowen mentioned that ETH/BTC saw a sharp rally. The analyst affirms that the rally was probably similar to the trend of the previous bull cycle, ushering in new lows. Furthermore, Cowen stated that there has been an unquestionable macro downtrend since November 2021, particularly following the merger of the ETH/BTC pair. However, it is also evident that the market did not decrease abruptly. As a result, investors held ETH instead of BTC all the way down from 0.085 to 0.048 because of the multiple lower highs, giving the impression that it was holding up quite well. Prior to the Bitcoin Halving, Cowen predicted that the bull market support band would reject ETH/BTC, at least when considering weekly closes ($0.053-$0.054), should there be a rebound after the Halving, similar to that witnessed with BTC spot ETF launch. Regardless of what occurs, the expert is confident that ETH/BTC will reach between $0.03 and $0.04 by this summer. Heightened Divergence Between Ethereum And Bitcoin Being the two leading cryptocurrency assets, there is great interest surrounding Ethereum and Bitcoin. However, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted a shift in performance between both digital assets. Related Reading: Ethereum Trouncing Bitcoin, ETH/BTC Ratio Bouncing Higher: Will This Trend Continue? According to the firm, the performance of Ethereum and Bitcoin has been increasingly diverging so far in the 2023–2024 cycle. This is due to poorer performance in ETH price, which is explained by a generally weaker trend in capital rotation. In addition, this is evident when particularly compared to preceding cycles and all-time highs. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Investors in the cryptocurrency space are eagerly awaiting the halving of Bitcoin in order to fuel future market growth. However, top cryptocurrency expert and trader Benjamin Cowen cautions that if the price of BTC follows a previous pattern, there may be a correction. Bitcoin Halving Could Impact Price Negatively Cowen has highlighted a trend that could potentially lead to a significant decline in the crypto asset’s price when the Bitcoin halving event commences, which suggests that BTC could be poised for a decline in the coming days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Final Dance: Analyst Eyes Final Peak Ahead Of Halving According to Cowen, should Bitcoin continue to follow the same trajectory as it entered the spot ETF during the halving, BTC may witness a trend toward the downside. The crypto expert advocates that these patterns typically do not repeat precisely. However, he believes putting the idea out there is crucial in case it happens again in a similar manner. In response, a pseudonymous user commented on Cowen’s post and reminded the expert that he forgot the arrow backup. Responding to the user, Cowen stated that he believes the outcome of the next phase will depend on whether or not ALT/BTC pairs have collapsed by then. Furthermore, he affirms there could be a move on the upside if they have not broken down. Meanwhile, in the event that they have broken down, the pattern can transit to something new. It is worth noting that the Bitcoin halving event is forecasted to take place within the next 11 days. Given Bitcoin’s halving previous significant impact on price, BTC could be positioned for a notable price surge in the coming days. However, if Cowen’s recent prediction manifests, it could paint a different picture for the crypto asset during the halving event. The expert’s prediction has sent quite a frenzy in the crypto community, with analysts like Peter Brandt supporting his insights. Peter Brandt acknowledged Cowen’s projections noting that previous Bitcoin bull markets have exhibited a similar fundamental trend. What To Expect During The Halving Event As the halving event approaches, the cryptocurrency data analytics platform Kaiko has laid out a perspective to watch out for. Kaiko’s perspective delves into the impact the halving has had on BTC’s price in the short term over the years. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Reveals What To Expect For Bitcoin, Dogecoin, And XRP In 12-16 Months According to the platform, in the past, the short-term price effect of Bitcoin halvings has been inconsistent. Nonetheless, historical data reveals that the coin tends to rise 9-12 months after halving, making it a generally bullish development. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was up by 8% in the past 7 days, valued at $70,770. Its overall market cap is down by over 2%, however, while its trading volume is up by over 8% in the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com