Researchers and builders believe that artificial intelligence may be accelerating the quantum timeline and forcing a broader rethink of how digital security works.
Researchers at the privacy-centric blockchain startup say their multi-layer quantum defense will feature a soft fork to freeze and protect dormant BTC.
Cryptocurrency exchanges are emerging as the clearest pressure point in Bitcoin’s long-running debate over quantum computing risk, sitting on millions of coins with publicly visible cryptographic keys. Bitcoin quantum risk begins with a fundamental feature of its transaction verification: public keys are hidden until funds are spent. Once a wallet signs a transaction, the public […]
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Also: Citi on quantum computing and bitcoin, Jump Crypto’s Firedancer, and Vitalik Buterin on AI verification
BSC’s quantum-security test worked, but bigger transaction data slowed network throughput by about 40%.
The bank said accelerating advances in quantum computing are compressing the timeline for risks to crypto and broader internet infrastructure, with Bitcoin seen as particularly exposed.
Quantum computing does not only pose a risk to up to $3 trillion in digital assets, it also threatens the security of banking systems, military communications, digital identities and more, Project Eleven’s report warns.
Roughly 6.9 million BTC could be at risk to quantum computers under certain conditions, Project Eleven estimates.
Joseph Lubin backed ETH treasury firms, confirmed Linea's Linux Foundation move, and highlighted Ethereum's quantum-safe roadmap.
PACTs would let long-term bitcoin holders prepare for a worst-case quantum scenario without moving funds or signaling activity onchain.
The Postquant Labs project uses Arch Network to deliver post-quantum signature protection without a Bitcoin soft fork, sidestepping both Jameson Lopp's freeze proposal and Paul Sztorc's hard fork.
The Solana Foundation has addressed growing concerns about the potential impact of quantum computing on blockchain security. In a blog post published on Monday, the organization set out its next steps and described a clear roadmap that the network could follow should the threat become more than theoretical. The Solana Post-Quantum Signature Plan Even though the risk is still considered distant, the Solana Foundation argued that networks should study the issue and prepare early, rather than waiting until a crisis forces rushed decisions. A key part of Solana’s preparation, the Foundation said, involves Anza and Firedancer, two validator client developers that together represent a substantial share of stake in the network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says Both teams have been allegedly investigating post-quantum migration paths closely, and they reached the same conclusion independently: Solana would need a post-quantum digital signature scheme that uses compact signatures and is suitable for high-throughput blockchain environments. That shared direction led both teams to a post-quantum signature approach known as Falcon. Solana said that research from both groups resulted in initial implementations. Importantly, the organization emphasized that no immediate network change is required today, and it is unlikely to be needed in the near term. However, the Foundation said the Solana ecosystem now has a plan that has been thoroughly researched, could be activated when the time is right, and is designed so that the transition would be manageable. The blog post also claimed the migration could occur quickly and that network performance is not expected to take a meaningful hit during the switch. From Winternitz Vault To New Wallets Beyond the validator client work, the Foundation said the wider Solana ecosystem has already been proactive in the post-quantum space. It pointed to Blueshift’s “Solana Winternitz Vault,” which it described as offering a direct route to quantum resilience and said has been in place for more than two years. The post then laid out a roadmap for how Solana says it will handle quantum readiness as the conversation evolves. The first step is to keep researching quantum threats and continuing to evaluate Falcon along with potential alternatives. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Headed For $40,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC Solana’s next move, if quantum becomes a credible concern, would be to adopt a post-quantum scheme for new wallets. From there, the Foundation says the ecosystem would migrate existing wallets to the selected post-quantum approach. Finally, the Solana Foundation’s blog post said that it will continue sharing updates as the work progresses, describing post-quantum readiness as an ongoing effort rather than a one-time project. At the time of writing, the blockchain’s native token, SOL, was trading at $84.42. This represented losses of 2% and 1.5% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Two of the network’s core developer teams, Anza and Jump Crypto’s Firedancer, have landed on the same solution: a new type of digital signature called Falcon.
Maximalists warn freezing 5.6M BTC risks instant sell-offs, while others say quantum threats leave no alternative.
Independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli broke a 15-bit elliptic curve key on publicly accessible quantum hardware, 512 times larger than the previous public demonstration in September 2025.
Quantum fears focus on vulnerable early wallets, but market data suggests even a worst case sell-off would be large, not catastrophic.
The 50-page paper concludes that while today’s blockchains remain secure, a future “fault-tolerant quantum computer” capable of breaking widely used encryption is increasingly plausible, and preparation must begin now.
Ripple is building a multi-stage plan to prepare the XRP Ledger (XRPL) for an eventual shift to post-quantum cryptography, setting a 2028 target for full readiness. This comes as advances in quantum computing force blockchain developers to think more concretely about how existing security systems may need to change in preparation for “Q-day.” The company […]
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The Blockstream CEO told Paris Blockchain Week that Bitcoin should build quantum-resistant upgrades now, a day after Jameson Lopp proposed freezing vulnerable coins instead.
BitMEX Research proposes a canary system that pays a bounty to the first quantum attacker and activates a network-wide freeze, offering an alternative to a fixed five-year timeline.
Lopp says dormant coins could pose systemic risk if quantum computing gives attackers the ability to grab them, intensifying the growing “freeze or not freeze” debate.
Sun's comments follow recent debate over whether quantum computers could eventually break the cryptography that underpins cryptocurrencies.
Non-profit group Presidio Bitcoin has released a technical report examining the growing quantum computing risk to the Bitcoin network. The document looks at where quantum capabilities stand today, how much of BTC’s value could be exposed, what mitigations are already feasible, and how the wider ecosystem might coordinate a software update and migration. Why Upgrades Are Harder In A Decentralized System Presidio Bitcoin begins from a simple point: Bitcoin is software, and that is both its power and its weakness. Because it is built as a system of code, Bitcoin is relatively easy to move, verify, and hold. At the same time, it inherits digital risks that come with relying on cryptography. One of the most important of those risks has been discussed since Bitcoin’s early days—cryptographically relevant quantum computers, often shortened to CRQCs. Related Reading: XRP Could Face Big Moves Based On CLARITY Act Outcomes – 3 Key Price Scenarios In theory, a CRQC could break the elliptic curve cryptography that underpins Bitcoin by enabling the derivation of private keys from public keys. The report emphasizes that this would primarily enable quantum-enabled theft of coins tied to exposed public keys. The report argues that Bitcoin’s mitigation toolkit is broad and technically achievable today, but the path is less straightforward than it is for more centralized systems. In centralized environments, coordination can be directed more easily. With Bitcoin, coordinating upgrades across developers, users, wallets, custodians, and infrastructure is inherently more complex. There is also the risk of making changes too early, too quickly, or in a way that creates new vulnerabilities. Presidio also notes that post-quantum schemes come with meaningful trade-offs, not just technical but practical ones for the ecosystem. 6.5 Million Bitcoin Could Be At Risk At the center of the vulnerability is Shor’s algorithm. Presidio explains that if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer exists, it could execute Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from exposed public keys. The report provides a stark quantitative estimate of what that could mean. If a cryptographically relevant quantum computer existed today, approximately 6.5 million BTC— one-third of the total supply—would be immediately vulnerable to theft. More than two-thirds of that exposure—about 4.5 million Bitcoin—comes from address reuse. Much of the reuse, the report says, is concentrated among a small group of large custodians that use the practice for simplicity. While that concentration increases the risk profile, Presidio also points out that this portion is reducible without any protocol change. The mitigation is straightforward in concept: rotate to fresh addresses. The remaining structural exposure is different in nature. Presidio estimates 1.72 million BTC sits in legacy pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) outputs, and the report notes that most of those are presumed lost. It also distinguishes another category: addresses that have never been spent and where only a hash of the public key is visible on-chain are not vulnerable at rest under current understanding. The Uncertain Clock For CRQCs A major part of the report is the uncertainty around timing. Presidio stresses that the timeline for CRQCs remains uncertain, with expert surveys placing the probability of cryptographically relevant machines emerging between 2030 and 2035 at about 50%. Even so, Presidio outlines a concrete strategy for Bitcoin network’s path forward. It involves deploying post-quantum signature schemes via a soft fork, rather than a disruptive hard change. Related Reading: Three-Way Bitcoin Outlook Tied To US–Iran War—Which Case Is Most Realistic? Activation is where timing matters most. Presidio says the Bitcoin ecosystem will likely complete the post-quantum signature activation well before a CRQC threat materializes. However, Chaincode’s playbook—referenced in the report—places activation around month 6–7 if it does not happen earlier. After activation, migration would follow. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Days after unveiling a quantum-safe bitcoin method, a StarkWare researcher was tapped to lead a new applications unit as Layer-2 revenue dries up.
XRP’s design leaves a smaller share of its supply exposed to future quantum attacks than Bitcoin’s, experts said, pointing to additional XRPL features that stand out.
A new scheme from a StarkWare researcher works under existing consensus rules, offering an emergency fallback while BIP-360 awaits activation.
Strategy's Michael Saylor said bitcoin has likely bottomed near $60,000 and downplayed quantum computing risks.
Also: North Korea’s 6-month plot with Drift, Solana Foundation’s new ad and Alchemy AI.
The broker said advances in quantum computing are accelerating the timeline for crypto risk, but argued Bitcoin faces a multi-year upgrade cycle, not an existential crisis.
At mainnet launch, Arc will introduce a post-quantum signature scheme, which enables users to create quantum-resistant wallets.