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“OG Bitcoin whales are dumping,” is the overarching narrative surrounding the latest Bitcoin selloff. Yet, amid nonstop chatter that Bitcoin’s earliest supporters are behind its latest price slide, on-chain analyst Willy Woo points to “nuance” in the metrics. On-chain moves don’t tell the full story; the old-guard may not be caving in just yet. Are […]
The post On-chain moves don’t tell the full story: Why OG Bitcoin whales may not be cashing out appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity is drying up fast, as the metric recently hit a seven-year low, reaching around 3.12 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018. This occurred as BTC continued to trade below the 99-day Moving Average (MA), located around $112,086. Bitcoin Liquidity Dries Up Amid High Demand According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s sell-side liquidity is drying up at a rapid pace, recently hitting a seven-year low at 3.12 million BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Score Turns Negative With Trend Below $106,780 – When Will The Correction End? As BTC’s supply tumbles sharply, the cryptocurrency is trading in the low $110,000 range, indicating a delicate balance between falling active circulating supply and growing institutional demand. Latest on-chain data shows that demand for BTC from long-term holders’ addresses has been steadily rising. Over the past 30 days, long-term investors have accumulated 373,700 BTC.  Long-term investors accumulating BTC during the latest dip shows that there is sufficient market demand for the flagship cryptocurrency despite a volatile crypto market. Arab Chain remarked that the market is currently in a “quiet accumulation” phase ahead of a potential breakout. The CryptoQuant analyst emphasized that the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (LIR) has crashed to around 8.3 months, suggesting that current market liquidity covers less than nine months’ worth of demand – confirming the rapid depletion in BTC’s sellable supply. For the uninitiated, the LIR measures the balance between available liquidity and active trading demand in the market, showing whether market makers are providing sufficient depth relative to recent trade volume. A high LIR suggests ample liquidity and stable price movement, while a low LIR indicates thinner order books and higher vulnerability to volatility or slippage. The medium-term outlook for BTC looks bullish, due to a combination of declining liquidity and growing demand from institutional and long-term investors. Arab Chain added: If this trend continues through the end of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin’s price could surpass $115,000, especially if accompanied by rising buying flows from US investment funds and ETFs, supporting the continuation of the current bullish trend. BTC Top Not In Yet While some analysts predict that BTC may have already peaked this market cycle, others are confident that the top cryptocurrency is yet to hit its cycle high. Recent on-chain data indicates that BTC NVT Golden Cross is yet to enter the territory that marked previous cycle tops. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Bull Phase Could Be Near As BTC-Stablecoin Ratio Plummets Similarly, fellow CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA predicted that there is a 55% chance that Bitcoin has not yet topped for the current market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $111,295, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, continues to trade slightly below the psychologically important $4,000 price level, following the brutal drawdown on October 9, which saw the digital currency test the support at around $3,435. Ethereum Stays Above Realized Price – Bullish Momentum Soon? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor TeddyVision, Ethereum is trading above its Realized Price at approximately $2,300. Dubbing the price level a “fundamental support zone,” the analyst said that historically, any dips below this level have marked a capitulation phase. Related Reading: Here’s What Happens To The Ethereum Price If Bullish Momentum Holds For the uninitiated, Realized Price represents the average cost basis of all ETH holders, calculated by dividing the total value of all ETH at the time they last moved on-chain by the current circulating supply.  Realized Price effectively shows the “true” average price investors paid, serving as a key indicator of whether the market is in profit or loss. As long as ETH trades above Realized Price, the market structure is likely to remain bullish. The analyst also highlighted Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. Notably, ETH holders are currently, on average, at 67% profit relative to their cost basis. This metric gives two major hints about the current market. First, it shows that although the market is profitable, it is still far from “overheated” levels. Second, it indicates that market participants are confident about the market’s upward momentum, but not quite euphoric. To explain, the MVRV ratio compares the market value of an asset to its realized value. A higher MVRV indicates holders are sitting on larger unrealized profits – often signaling potential overvaluation – while a lower MVRV suggests undervaluation or market fear. Further, TeddyVision noted Ethereum’s reaction from the Upper Realized Price Band, which is currently located around $5,300. The analyst remarked: Price pulled back before reaching the “Overheating Zone. This isn’t a reversal – it’s a consolidation phase after distribution, a healthy cooldown without structural damage. Finally, spot inflows of ETH to crypto exchanges are also slowing down, hinting that the next leg up for the digital asset will likely depend on fresh liquidity, and not leverage. To sum it up, Ethereum is slowly moving from the distribution phase to the consolidation phase. Is It A Good Time To Buy ETH? While providing reliable future predictions in the crypto market remains a challenging task, fresh on-chain and exchange data point toward ETH regaining its bullish momentum. For instance, Binance funding rates recently hinted that ETH could surge to $6,800. Related Reading: Ethereum Poised For Breakout? SOPR Trend Hints At $5,000 Upside Similarly, ETH reserves on exchanges continue to fall at a rapid pace. Earlier this month, ETH supply on exchanges hit a multi-year low, increasing the probability of a potential “supply crunch” that can dramatically increase ETH’s price. That said, crypto analyst Nik Patel recently cautioned that ETH’s price correction may not yet be fully over. At press time, ETH trades at $3,849, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours.  Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

While Bitcoin (BTC) has declined more than 13% from its fresh all-time high (ATH) of $126,199 recorded earlier this month on October 6, CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA is confident that there is a 55% chance that the BTC top for this market cycle is not in yet. Bitcoin Top Not In Yet – More Upside Ahead? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor PelinayPA, there is a 55% probability that the Bitcoin top for the ongoing market cycle is not in yet. The analyst highlighted BTC’s recent on-chain flows to support their claim. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Score Turns Negative With Trend Below $106,780 – When Will The Correction End? In their analysis, PelinayPA noted that although BTC’s price has tumbled from more than $126,000 to around $109,000 in the second half of 2025, there has been a noticeable increase in 0-1 day BTC inflows to exchanges. A rise in 0-1 days BTC inflows to exchange typically has two implications – short-term traders are taking profits, and there is a temporary phase of repositioning of liquidity as traders transfer their holdings to exchanges, anticipating price volatility. The analyst added that BTC held for more than six months is largely inactive, indicating that long-term holders are likely not selling despite the recent market crash. This signals market confidence among long-term holders, minimizing the possibility of another major sell-off in the near term. PelinayPA remarked that such behavior typically occurs in the mid or maturing stages of a bull cycle, where any dip in price is seen as an opportunity to accumulate instead of a trend reversal.  Currently, the Bitcoin market is in a natural consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend. The analyst added: In the short term, Bitcoin could revisit the $102K region as short term traders continue to take profits. However, since this selling pressure originates mainly from newer holders, it is unlikely to disrupt the broader bullish structure. These dips may offer attractive entry opportunities. Concluding, Pelinay commented that the lack of selling activity among BTC holders in the 6-months to 10-year time-band range shows that there is a 55% probability that the bull market top has not yet formed. BTC Could Dip To $102,000 The CryptoQuant contributor noted that, although it is likely that the BTC bull market top is not in yet, it does not mean that the top cryptocurrency would not see further temporary decline. If selling persists, BTC could once again test the $102,000 support level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Feels “Too Efficient” As Arbitrage Opportunities Vanish – What It Means For Price? Similarly, crypto analyst Elliot Waves Academy remarked that BTC has likely finished the bullish leg of the ongoing market cycle. The analyst added that BTC is likely to consolidate around its current levels.  That said, a fellow CryptoQuant contributor noted that BTC has entered the ‘disbelief phase,’ and may take the bears by surprise with a sharp surge in price. At press time, BTC trades at $108,472, down 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

After the massive crash on October 10 – which saw Bitcoin (BTC) touch $102,000 before recovering some losses – some analysts now predict that the top cryptocurrency may be on the verge of another bullish rally as it enters the ‘disbelief phase.’ Bitcoin In Disbelief Phase – Trouble For Bears? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin appears to be entering the disbelief phase, which increases the possibility of a rebound to the upside. The contributor emphasized the slightly negative funding rate to support their analysis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Score Turns Negative With Trend Below $106,780 – When Will The Correction End? For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin disbelief phase occurs when a new uptrend begins, but most investors remain skeptical after a recent correction, doubting that the recovery is real. During this phase, lingering bearish sentiment and short positions often act as fuel for a stronger rally once confidence returns. Darkfost stated that investors’ skepticism toward BTC returning to bullish mode can be gauged through BTC funding rates in the derivatives market. Funding rates remained negative at -0.004% on the exchange for six out of seven days over the past week, indicating traders are still slightly bearish. The likely reason behind traders’ short bias is the October 10 crypto market crash that led to a liquidation worth $19 billion. Since then, traders have consistently chosen to short the market instead of getting trapped in another price pullback. However, the longer BTC remains in the disbelief phase, the stronger the potential for an explosive upside move becomes. Darkfost added: If the current uptrend continues to establish itself, the growing pile of short positions against it could become a powerful fuel for the next leg higher. As these shorts get liquidated, it would drive prices upward, triggering a short squeeze. If a short squeeze happens, then BTC could quickly rally to major liquidity zones around $113,000 level, and even as high as $126,000 region, where significant short orders liquidations are clustered. The analyst shared two previous instance where such a pattern played out. In September 2024, BTC fell to $54,000 before surging to a new all-time high beyond $100,000. Similarly, in April 2025, the flagship digital asset rallied from $85,000 to $111,000, before climbing even higher to $123,000. To conclude, the Bitcoin market may be on the verge of another short squeeze, fueled by investors’ skepticism. BTC Investors Need To Be Cautious Although BTC is giving hints of a looming short squeeze, investors should still exercise some caution before entering the market in hopes of an instant turnaround in sentiment. For example, Bitcoin activity recently slumped below its 365-day average, raising fears of a loss of momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Feels “Too Efficient” As Arbitrage Opportunities Vanish – What It Means For Price? That said, some crypto analysts forecast that BTC is likely done with the price correction and is set to surge in the coming days. At press time, BTC trades at $110,814, up 2.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Following a slight slump yesterday from its recent highs, Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading in the low $120,000 range. Meanwhile, BTC’s miner correlation has undergone a significant shift over the past few months, indicating a clear change in market dynamics between miner behavior and price direction. Bitcoin Miner Correlation Turns Negative According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, fresh data from Binance shows that Bitcoin price and miner flows to the crypto exchange have undergone a significant shift in recent months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Are Back: Three Indicators Suggest A Run Toward $130,000 Specifically, the 30-Day Rolling Correlation indicator has tumbled to its lowest level since March 2025. On October 3, this indicator fell to -0.157, its lowest reading in more than five months. Since then, it has remained close to the -0.10 range. For the uninitiated, the 30-day rolling correlation indicator measures how closely two variables, such as Bitcoin’s price and miner flows, move together over the past 30 days. A positive value means they typically rise or fall in tandem, while a negative value means they move in opposite directions. It is worth noting that the indicator had previously been moving within a positive range of 0.1 to 0.5 during Q2 2025. The shift from positive rage to negative suggests that the recent surge in BTC price has not been driven by miner flows to exchanges. This is in stark contrast to previous cycles, where miner flows to exchanges played a key role in BTC’s price movement. However, the current cycle’s positive price action can be attributed to increased demand from investors and institutions. Arab Chain added: In past cycles, when the price rose, miners often transferred larger amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges to sell and take profits, creating a positive correlation between price and miner flows – meaning that as prices increased, flows also increased. Arab Chain added that the decline in correlation indicates a phase of “price independence” where miners opt to hold their BTC rather than sell it during times of price appreciation. A fall in miner signal is usually considered a bullish signal, as it reduces BTC’s circulating supply. That said, if the correlation turns strongly positive again, it could signal the return of selling pressure and a medium-term price correction could be expected. At present, the BTC market is showing a healthy balance between demand and supply. BTC Needs To Defend This Level Following BTC’s fall to the low $120,000 range, some crypto analysts say that the top cryptocurrency must defend the $120,600 level to avoid further crash. However, not all analysts are bearish on BTC just yet.  Related Reading: $140K Or Bust? Simulation Says Bitcoin’s Odds Are Now 50-50 For instance, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes predicts that US President Donald Trump could send BTC to $250,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $121,375, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) takes a brief breather after creating a new all-time high (ATH) above $125,000, on-chain data shows that three key indicators played a major role in the digital asset’s latest rally to new highs.  These Three Indicators Suggest More Room For Bitcoin According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, fresh data from Binance suggests that BTC is witnessing one of its most significant buying phases since mid-year. Notably, BTC’s price has surged from around $117,000 to $124,000 since the beginning of October. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s On-Chain Roadmap Shows $111,000 – $143,000 As The Range To Watch Arab Chain emphasized three key indicators that suggest the return of whales into the Bitcoin market. First, the net buying pressure (vol_delta) surged past $500 million on some days, indicating that buying pressure outweighed selling pressure from this amount. Similarly, the imbalance ratio (imbalance_pct) recently hit a high of 0.23, suggesting that BTC buy orders on Binance were roughly 23% higher than sell orders. Higher buy orders than sell orders usually indicate strong demand and potential upward pressure on the asset’s price. Finally, the Z-score recorded a value of 0.79, reflecting above-average buying activity. For the uninitiated, a Z-score measures how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean. The CryptoQuant analyst remarked that these indicators confirm that institutional buyers and whales have returned to the Bitcoin market in force. Arab Chain added: This activity coincides with a clear increase in daily trading volumes, which have reached their highest levels since last July, suggesting that the rally is being supported by real liquidity rather than temporary speculation. Recent trading sessions have shown a few of these indicators – especially vol_delta – slightly declining in value, and temporarily moving to negative territory. That said, the broader indicators still favor a continued upward trend for the top cryptocurrency. Notably, the average daily volatility has remained low, confirming strong market confidence and stable demand. This is in stark contrast to the market behavior shown in September, when BTC was struggling in the $100,000 range. To conclude, both technical and behavioral indicators support BTC’s continued rise to $125,000 – $130,000 in the near term. Unless a strong wave of sell-off emerges, any price correction should be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate BTC, Arab Chain noted. What’s Next For BTC? While it is typically a challenge to predict BTC’s future, some analysts are not shying away from giving predictions about the flagship digital asset’s upcoming price trajectory. For instance, BTC’s pricing bands suggest a move toward $140,000 is likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin UTXO Falls To Lowest Level Since April 2024 — What This Means For Price Similarly, rapidly dwindling BTC reserves on crypto exchanges may propel the cryptocurrency’s price to even greater highs, potentially to $150,000 and beyond. At press time, BTC trades at $122,373, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $125,708 on Binance yesterday, BTC exchange inflows are starting to show signs of slowing down. As a result, crypto analysts are confident that the top cryptocurrency by market cap may be on the cusp of a healthy rally. Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Slump Amid New ATH According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ChainSpan, fresh on-chain data shows that the average amount of BTC inflows into exchanges such as Binance has decreased significantly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe-Like Ratio Shows Market In Wait-and-See Mode At $119,000 To recall, BTC sent to exchanges is usually seen as a warning sign, as it suggests that investors are attempting to sell their holdings at prevailing market prices. As a result, high inflows to exchanges typically create selling pressure on the underlying asset’s price. On the contrary, a decrease in exchange inflows indicates that BTC holders are opting to hold their assets in cold wallets. One of the cascading effects of lower exchange inflows is that it could lead to a “supply crunch” for BTC, which may lead to extraordinary price appreciation in a short duration. ChainSpan noted that as Bitcoin’s price surged from $108,000 to $125,000 over the past few weeks, the inflow average for the cryptocurrency has dropped from 0.55 to 0.48. This suggests that the current rally is being driven by organic market demand and holding behavior. Put simply, the increase in BTC’s price is not happening in tandem with a speculative selling wave, but rather on a foundation of reduced selling pressure. The analyst added: In the short term, this backdrop supports the upward trend. Yet, if large inflows into exchanges suddenly appear in the coming days, it could be a sign that major players are preparing to sell. In such a case, a short-term correction in the price may follow. The CryptoQuant analyst concluded by saying that although the current market conditions point toward low selling intent and strong demand for BTC, a sudden spike in exchange inflows could derail the digital asset’s momentum. As a result, investors should keep a close eye on the metric. Will BTC Surge Further In Q4? While BTC has already created a new ATH, some crypto analysts forecast that the digital asset may record more gains in the coming quarter. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC could peak sometime in mid-November. Related Reading: A Breakout To New Highs? Bitcoin’s Bullish Wave Eyes $130k As RSI Stays Firm Similarly, recent analysis by the team at The Bull Theory forecasts that BTC may surge as high as $143,000 in October. Historically, October has been one of the strongest months for BTC in terms of price appreciation. That said, BTC must first ensure it decisively breaks through the stiff resistance at $125,000 and defends the support level at $118,000. At press time, BTC trades at $125,189, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) steadily makes its way toward its current all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, optimism seems to be returning to the market. However, fresh data from Binance shows that BTC’s gains barely outweigh the risks posed by the digital asset’s volatility. Bitcoin Maintaining A Risk-Reward Balance According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, latest data from Binance – the world’s leading cryptocurrency trading platform in terms of liquidity – suggests that BTC is currently maintaining a risk-reward balance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs Specifically, the Sharpe-like ratio on Binance currently stands at 0.18, a figure very close to neutral territory. To explain, a Sharpe-like ratio measures how much return an investment generates relative to the risk it takes, similar to the Sharpe ratio but often using adjusted benchmarks or risk measures. When the Sharpe-like ratio is above 0.5, investing in Bitcoin becomes attractive since the potential returns outweigh the risks. On the contrary, a negative reading of the ratio discourages investors from taking risks, since volatility exceeds returns. During 2024, when the cryptocurrency market was largely weak and volatile, the Sharpe-like ratio spent most of the time in the negative territory. In contrast, the ratio reached elevated levels, signaling a strong uptrend, at the beginning of 2025. Currently, the Bitcoin market is trading between the two extremes – the market is neither dangerous nor in a powerful uptrend. Notably, the market appears to be in a phase of equilibrium and accumulation, as it trades close to $119,000. Arab Chain added: The latest figures show that the 30-day average return stands at just 0.26%, highlighting that the market is not delivering outsized gains; investors entering now are likely to see only modest profits relative to risk. Meanwhile, 30-day volatility is around 1.37%, which indicates a natural, moderate level of price fluctuation – not excessively calm but not alarmingly unstable either. BTC Needs A Catalyst For Next Leg Up The CryptoQuant analyst added that the BTC market is currently awaiting a bullish catalyst or strong inflows to extend its uptrend. However, if the Sharpe-like ratio falls below zero again, then a period of price correction may follow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most On the flipside, the ratio sustaining above 0.5 for several days – coupled with a price breakout above the $120,000 to $122,000 range on healthy volume – would suggest a fresh upward trend for the top cryptocurrency by market cap. Recent on-chain data hints toward a potential rally setup for BTC. Notably, the short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) recently recovered slightly to 0.995. That said, Bitcoin must defend the important $90,000 support level to avoid entering a new bear market. At press time, BTC trades at $118,788, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight surge earlier today, climbing from $113,000 to around $117,000 at the time of writing, in contrast to expectations of several crypto analysts who were predicting a decline in risk-on assets due to the US government shutdown. Bitcoin Rises Despite US Government Shutdown The US federal government shut down at midnight on September 30, as President Donald Trump and Congress failed to reach a deal on funding. Specifically, the two camps were at odds over enhanced Obamacare subsidies, with neither party willing to take the blame. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most However, Bitcoin made a surprise move to the upside despite the uncertain environment created by the US government shutdown, recording strong gains earlier today. CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi stated that September saw deeper losses among short-term holders (STH), as their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell as low as 0.992. As a result, most of September was marked by STH continuing to sell their BTC holdings at a loss. However, the metric recovered slightly to 0.995, although it is still below August’s reading of 0.998. The current STH-SOPR reading is showing signs of stabilization after a period of depression. It is interesting to note the timing of this recovery, as it occurred at a time when BTC is trading in the high $110,000 range, slightly below a heavy resistance zone. Past data shows two potential scenarios that can happen following such a reset in the STH-SOPR. First, it could be early warning signs of a weakening momentum for BTC, as extended loss realization can precede corrective phases where weak hands capitulate. The other, more bullish scenario, is that it could be a healthy reset. Quick absorption of realized losses often paves the way for more sustainable rallies, which could catapult BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term. The CryptoQuant analyst added: With BTC consolidating under resistance, this rebound in STH-SOPR is a key barometer of market health. If buyers continue to absorb weak-hand selling, it could mirror past resets that paved the way for the next leg higher. Will BTC Decline In Q4 2025? While the dwindling active circulating supply of Bitcoin offers some hope to the bulls, others are not as optimistic. According to recent analysis by fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, demand for BTC cooled after it failed to hold above $115,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Go To Zero, Hedge Fund CEO Warns Meanwhile, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently remarked that BTC is likely to experience another 20% decline from its current price, reaching his projected target range between $90,000 – $94,000. At press time, BTC trades at $117,226, up 3.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience over the last weekend as it defended the crucial $108,000 support level amid heightened whale selling on leading crypto exchanges around the world, including Binance. Bitcoin Survives September Whale Selling Pressure According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, September was marked by clear fluctuations between Bitcoin’s attempts to rally and exposure to selling pressure by whales and long-term holders. Binance trading volume data confirms this. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure As Exchange Inflows Stay Elevated – Will BTC Lose $112,000 Support? Arab Chain highlighted Binance’s Exchange Inflow Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which showed significant volatility throughout September. The indicator recorded multiple peaks at various points during the month, especially during mid-September. For the uninitiated, the Exchange CDD indicator tracks the movement of older, long-held Bitcoin when it flows into exchanges, weighting transactions by the age of the coins being spent. Spikes in this indicator signal that long-term holders or whales are moving coins with the intent to sell, which can create selling pressure. It is worth noting that despite the high peaks hit in September, the Exchange CDD indicator did not reach the extreme levels that it did in the previous months. However, the repeated spikes seen in September indicate inflows from older wallets into Binance. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that the multiple spikes in the Exchange CDD indicator reflect a state of caution among long-term investors. Some of these investors tried to test the market by moving their BTC to the exchange, without turning it into a mass sell-off event. Another point worth emphasizing is that the Exchange CDD spikes often coincided with price pullbacks in BTC, reinforcing the hypothesis that these flows likely represent short-term selling pressure. The analyst added: However, these pressures did not lead to a breakdown of key support levels around $108K, indicating the presence of corresponding buying liquidity that absorbed these moves. In conclusion, although some long-term investors showed willingness to take some profits, the absence of large waves of sell-offs shows that they have not fully lost confidence in the market yet. Similarly, Bitcoin’s price remaining above $108,000 despite repeated selling pressure shows that the market still possesses the capacity to absorb BTC inflows, confirming the robust underlying demand for the top digital asset. What Does October Hold For BTC? In a separate CryptoQuant post, analyst crypto sunmoon remarked that past data suggests that a surge in taker buy orders has often preceded major Bitcoin bull runs. However, currently, there are no signs of any increase in taker buy orders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs The analyst added that even if BTC witnesses some price increase, it is unlikely to record the same magnitude of gains as before. That said, improving Bitcoin network fundamentals offers some hope to the bulls. For instance, Bitcoin network transactions are once again approaching the important 600,000 transactions threshold, which could spark bullish momentum for the digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $113,200, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in the low $110,000 range, a key on-chain indicator has flipped bullish, show signs of an upcoming price rally that could propel the top digital asset to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term.  Bitcoin’s 600,000 Transactions Threshold Takes Center Stage According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Ibrahim Cosar, an important correlation between BTC price and the total number of transactions over time stands out.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Confluence Hints No Bottom Before October – What This Means The analyst shared the following chart to highlight the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the total number of transactions. Notably, whenever the total transaction count surges above the 600,000 level – or even approaches it – BTC’s price tends to initiate an upward move. The above chart shows three previous instances in 2025 when BTC’s total transaction count climbed beyond 600,000, with an ensuing price appreciation. In May, there was a sharp price increase shortly following Bitcoin’s transaction count jump. Similar combinations of transaction count increase and price action surge were witnessed in August and early September. The CryptoQuant analyst remarked that this pattern has become particularly evident since Q4 2024. Cosar added: I’ve been studying on-chain data for a long time, but it’s rare to see such a clear pattern. The 600K transaction threshold seems to act almost like a signal that triggers Bitcoin’s “price engine.” This is my personal discovery, and the chart confirms it quite clearly. The analyst stated that rising transaction activity on the network is a leading indicator of Bitcoin’s underlying usage and demand. As the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network rises, the network becomes more vibrant and active. The growing usage of the Bitcoin network creates a natural buying pressure on Bitcoin’s price, adding fuel to the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. According to Cosar, the 600,000 transaction level is an “activity explosion” threshold that leads to a “price explosion.” That said, the analyst cautioned that no single factor can completely influence BTC’s price, as it is dependent on a mix of various factors, including macroeconomic backdrop, regulations, and trading activity. Still, the significance of an on-chain indicator with such a strong correlation with BTC’s price should not be ignored. If the total transaction count rises past the 600,000 level again, expect BTC to hit a new record high. Will BTC Fall Below $100,000? Bitcoin’s inability to decisively break through its current ATH of $124,128, recorded on August 14, has bulls worried about the digital asset’s fading momentum. The cryptocurrency is currently at its most oversold level since April 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tipped To Peak In 2026 – Here’s Why From a technical standpoint, BTC has formed a bearish evening star pattern on the weekly chart, raising the possibilities of a price dip below $100,000. At press time, BTC trades at $114,117, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Ethereum (ETH) fell below $4,000 for the first time since August 8, amid a market-wide pullback, the exchange reserves of the cryptocurrency also recorded a sharp decline. Notably, leading crypto exchanges like Binance and Coinbase Advanced witnessed a sharp increase in ETH outflows. Ethereum Reserves On Binance, Coinbase Advanced Dwindle According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor CryptoOnchain, Ethereum outflows across all leading crypto exchanges have surged. In August-September 2025, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) netflow fell below -40,000 ETH per day, the lowest level since February 2023. Related Reading: Ethereum Close To Local Bottom? Analyst Flags Drop In Binance Open Interest The 50-day SMA dropping below -40,000 ETH per day signified reduced spot market supply and potential upward price pressure. The analyst shared the following chart to explain this dynamic. Meanwhile, data from Binance crypto exchange shows netflow fluctuations over the past two years, oscillating between positive and negative values. However, a clear move towards heavy outflows has emerged in recent months.  The following chart shows how the 50-day SMA has reached its lowest level in two years on Binance. This indicates diminished liquid holdings on Binance, in line with the broader market trend. A similar trend can be observed on Coinbase Advanced, a top crypto trading platform that primarily serves institutional investors and US-based clients. Here, the 50-day SMA has dropped to around -20,000 to -25,000 ETH, recording the lowest level ever for this exchange. The CryptoQuant contributor noted that the significant decline on Coinbase Advanced since early summer 2025 indicates large-scale asset transfers. Presumably, these are done by institutional investors into cold wallets or non-custodial platforms. CryptoOnchain concluded by saying that the combination of multi-year lows at Binance, coupled with all-time lows at Coinbase Advanced, signals a structural, market-wide trend of ETH withdrawals from exchanges. They added: This kind of liquidity drain typically reduces immediate supply and sets the stage for potential medium‑term bullish moves – provided demand in the market rises. ETH Whales Preparing For Another Rally? Although ETH’s momentum has turned bearish over the past few weeks, on-chain data reveals that ETH whales – wallets with significant ETH holdings – are quietly accumulating the digital asset ahead of another potential rally. Related Reading: Ethereum On-Chain Bloodbath: Rugs And Scams Erode Retail Confidence, What To Know Most recently, crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that ETH accumulator addresses are rising at an unprecedented rate. Notably, close to 400,000 ETH was added to these specialized wallets on September 24. ETH whales accumulating the digital asset despite its subpar price performance over the past few weeks is not surprising, as bullish macroeconomic prospects point toward a potential upcoming rally for the cryptocurrency. At press time, ETH trades at $3,900, down 2.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in the low $110,000 range, on-chain data shows that a fresh wave of demand has entered the market. Notably, the Net Position Change (NPC) of the youngest cohort of BTC holders has re-entered positive territory, raising hopes for the cryptocurrency to gain bullish momentum. Bitcoin NPC Back In Positive Territory According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the NPC of Bitcoin holders who have held the digital asset for less than one month has decisively flipped into positive territory. This change shows that new demand is flowing into the market at an accelerated rate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio Declines After Fed Cut, Setting Stage For $120,000 Test Crazzyblockk highlighted that the 30-day change in supply held by wallets younger than one month has surged, hitting as high as +73,702 BTC on September 23. The following chart confirms the uptick following a period of negative action. It is worth emphasizing that the influx of fresh capital into the Bitcoin market is beneficial in helping to absorb the supply being sold by long-term holders (LTH). Typically, LTH refers to holders who have held BTC for more than six months. Currently, these LTH are selling their BTC at a rate of approximately -145,000 BTC, indicative of a typical bull market where early investors realize profits. The analyst added that the fact that selling pressure is being met with strong demand from new entrants is a sign of the rally’s sustainability. The CryptoQuant contributor added that the accumulation is not limited to the newest cohort. Besides the less than one-month cohort, short-term holders (STH) – investors who have held BTC for less than six months – are also accumulating. The STH NPC has changed to +159,098 BTC, cementing the robust demand for the top cryptocurrency by market cap across a spectrum of investors based on their time in the market. Crazzyblockk added: The current dynamic – where profit-taking from long-term investors is being absorbed by a new and enthusiastic wave of buyers – is a classic characteristic of a strengthening bull market. The positive flip in the youngest holder cohort is a leading indicator of broadening market participation and suggests a strong conviction among new investors. This robust demand structure is highly supportive of continued price appreciation in the near to medium term. Some Areas Of Concern For BTC While the demand for BTC from young cohorts is encouraging, some concerns still linger about the digital asset’s near-term price action. For instance, BTC exchange inflows remain elevated, raising fears of greater selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy: Accumulation Over Selling Signals Stronger Bull Cycle Similarly, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s current rally is primarily being led by retail investors. Bitcoin whales – wallets with significant BTC holdings – are noticeably absent from the current rally. That said, the digital asset’s fundamentals continue to strengthen as the Bitcoin network activity recently reached a new 2025 peak. At press time, BTC trades at $112,804, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

According to data from Coinglass, the crypto market saw liquidations worth more than $1.6 billion over the past 24 hours, with the majority of them being long positions. Elevated exchange inflows threaten to crash Bitcoin (BTC) further below the important support level at $112,000. Bitcoin Tumbles, Will It Lose $112,000? Bitcoin fell from around $116,000 to as low as $111,800 earlier today, as the broader cryptocurrency market experienced volatility amid concerns about the US government shutdown. Prediction markets on Kalshi are currently giving a 70% chance of a shutdown in 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio Declines After Fed Cut, Setting Stage For $120,000 Test Commenting on today’s BTC price action, CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA remarked that at the end of August and early September, almost 65,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges, which coincided with a price recovery in the digital asset. The analyst shared the following chart, which shows BTC withdrawals from exchanges. Typically, large outflows from trading platforms indicate that investors are moving their holdings to personal wallets – reducing immediate selling pressure and signaling a bullish trend. That said, recent trends suggest that such outflows have weakened. Specifically, since September 20, exchange data shows that more investors are choosing to keep their coins on exchanges. PelinayPA shared another chart which shows BTC deposits to exchanges. Notably, between September 17 and 19, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged to nearly 40,000, while the price tumbled to $117,000. For the uninitiated, high BTC inflows to exchanges usually imply that investors are moving their coins from private wallets to platforms where they can be sold, signaling increased selling intent. This creates short-term bearish pressure on price, as higher supply on exchanges can outweigh demand.  The CryptoQuant analyst added that during the rally between September 7 and 15, BTC outflows from exchanges exceeded inflows, supporting bullish momentum. However, inflows surpassed outflows after September 17, triggering strong selling pressure and pushing BTC down to $112,700. She concluded: Inflows remain high while outflows are relatively weak, indicating short-term downside pressure. If outflows increase again, signaling accumulation, BTC could rebound strongly from the $112K zone. Otherwise, further downside risk remains. Should BTC Holders Be Worried? Bitcoin’s fall to $112,000 should not come as a surprise. Recent on-chain data had already hinted that BTC could be in trouble due to a lack of whale participation in the recent rally.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Faces Supply Squeeze As Scarcity Index Turns Positive Again It is worth highlighting that BTC’s latest fall in price came shortly after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Although the flagship cryptocurrency fell, experts believe that it is still far from a real capitulation. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently predicted that BTC could top out at $208,000 during the ongoing market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $113,175, down 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Earlier this week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, providing the much-required impetus to the economy after a cycle of raising interest rates to keep inflation under check. A cut in interest rates is likely to benefit risk-on assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Bitcoin Supply Ratio Falls According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, the latest data from Binance shows that the interest rate cut has rekindled investors’ interest in BTC. Notably, the exchange supply ratio has declined to 0.0291, hinting that investors are choosing to withdraw their BTC from exchanges and hold it for the long-term instead of selling it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing? To support their analysis, Arab Chain shared the following chart, which shows a tumbling exchange supply ratio while the BTC price continues to shoot up. The analyst noted that the interest rate cut has increased risk appetite and improved liquidity in the market. This behavior shows that the Fed’s monetary policy will remain dovish for the near term, which could mitigate selling pressure on BTC for the time being. Low exchange supply is creating relative buying pressure, as Bitcoin’s stability above $115,000 further supports this trend. The analyst remarked that if BTC outflows from crypto exchanges continue at the current pace, then the digital asset may target the $120,000 resistance level. However, liquidity must continue to flow into digital assets, driven by the Fed’s decision. Arab Chain added: The continued decline in the Exchange Supply Ratio for Bitcoin, coupled with a rising price, reinforces the bullish scenario, especially if traditional markets stabilize after the Fed’s decision. Conversely, if the Exchange Supply Ratio turns upward again (if Bitcoin reenters exchanges), it could signal that investors are preparing to take profits at levels near 118K–120K. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto had similar thoughts. In an X post, the analyst shared the following chart, saying that BTC is currently stuck under the bearish fair value gap. A daily close above this gap – highlighted in red – could pave the way for a new high for BTC. Is BTC Facing A Supply Crunch? A declining exchange supply ratio further suggests that BTC may be approaching a bullish ‘supply crunch’ that could lead to significant price appreciation for the digital asset in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Binance Turns Bullish – But Is The Market Setting A Trap? Recently, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index recorded its first spike since June 2025, indicating potential upward price pressure on BTC. Meanwhile, BTC outflows from Binance continue at a rapid pace, further reducing the digital asset’s active circulating supply. That said, some concerns still linger, specifically due to the lack of participation of whales in recent BTC price action. At press time, BTC trades at $116,374, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Although Ethereum (ETH) is still up approximately 80% over the past three months, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap appears to have lost its momentum lately, down 0.6% over the past month.  Binance Ethereum Trading In Neutral Zone According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Ethereum trading on Binance during September 2025 is witnessing a period of relative calm compared to other months. Notably, there has been a decline in the imbalance between ETH spot and perpetual volumes. Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Hits Record 36 Million ETH, Driving Structural Supply Shock Commenting on ETH’s recent price surge,  which saw it jump from $2,127 on June 15 to around $4,500 at the time of writing, Arab Chain noted that this rally was not supported by strong momentum. Neither the spot market nor leveraged speculators contributed to the price appreciation. The CryptoQuant contributor brought attention to ETH’s Z-score, which has oscillated between 0.0 and -1.0 for most of September. Such a Z-score typically signifies the asset trading in a neutral zone, with a slight tilt toward the spot market. For the uninitiated, a Z-score measures how far a data point is from the mean, expressed in units of standard deviation. In trading, it’s used to identify whether a value – like volume or price –  is unusually high or low compared to its historical average. In essence, ETH’s current Z-score means that perpetual contracts are slowly losing their dominance in trading volume. This could be due to multiple reasons, such as speculators exiting the market or due to increased dependence on real buy/sell orders from actual investors. The decline in perpetual trading volume is significant compared to the period between June and August. As a result, the appetite for leveraged speculation has dwindled too, a sign of growing caution in the market. Arab Chain added: Despite this decline, the spot market also showed limited strength, reflecting a general lack of investor engagement. Spot volume remained below the 500K–1M range, which is significantly lower than the peaks recorded in July and June. The analyst cautioned that although the lack of strong imbalances between the spot and perpetual markets may seem positive at first, it could also mean there is heightened uncertainty and stagnation pertaining to the direction of ETH’s price. Is ETH Preparing For A New Rally? Although ETH appears to be stuck in limbo due to its sluggish price action, some analysts are confident that the digital asset is likely to resume its bullish trajectory in the near term. For example, ETH reserves on exchanges continue to deplete at a rapid pace. Related Reading: Ethereum Outflows Drive Binance Supply Ratio Under 0.037, Signaling Bullish Setup Similarly, institutional demand for ETH continues to be strong, with some analysts forecasting ETH to climb to $6,800 by the end of 2025. At press time, ETH trades at $4,439, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to defend the $112,000 support level following days of tepid price action, unable to give a clear indication about the potential direction of its next move. Latest exchange data from Binance shows a recent dip in whale activity, suggesting BTC likely avoided another massive sell-off. Bitcoin Defends $112,000 Against Whale Sell-Off According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, recent data from the Binance crypto exchange shows that there was a sudden spike in whale activity on the exchange on September 7, when the BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio surged to 0.55. Related Reading: Bitcoin Withdrawal Wave Points To Another Major Leg Up In The Bull Cycle, Analyst Says However, this surge was quickly followed by a decline in the metric, as the BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio tumbled to 0.28, on September 8. However, the price remained stable around $112,500, suggesting that whale movements were short-lived and did not lead to a sell-off in BTC. The CryptoQuant analyst remarked that the fall in whale pressure toward the end of the period is a positive short-term signal. In essence, the likelihood of a sharp price correction driven by whale sell-offs on Binance is now significantly reduced. Arab Chain added: The frequent whale fluctuations in late August and early September highlight that major players are still moving large volumes – meaning risks remain, and the market could be caught off guard by a sudden move if substantial exchange inflows are converted into market orders. However, the analyst cautioned that the relationship is not always absolute. Although the rise in the metric has often been associated with a fall in the price of BTC, not every spike has led to a clear decline in price. As seen in the above chart, there have been instances of whale activity surging beyond 0.5 for multiple days – accompanied by positive net inflows to exchanges. Arab Chain noted that such dynamics may lead to a failure to maintain the $112,000 level, and possibly trigger a drop to $108,000. Historical data for September shows that the beginning of the month is typically quiet in terms of whale pressure on Binance, except for the occasional quick jump. While this offers a safer environment for a gradual rise, it also gives whales a chance to exert pressure on the market, especially if the overall demand is weak. Is BTC Yet To Hit Its Peak? While BTC is currently trading roughly 10% below its latest all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, some crypto experts opine that the flagship cryptocurrency is yet to hit its peak for this market cycle. Related Reading: Fair Value Gap Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Going Higher, But Watch Out For This Crash In recent analysis, Bitcoin researcher Sminston predicted that BTC may top out anywhere between $200,000 – $290,000 sometime in 2026. At press time, BTC trades at $112,639, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Ethereum (ETH) trades slightly above $4,300, some crypto analysts opine that the cryptocurrency’s current trend shows enough structural health. However, they also caution that a lack of funding rates across exchanges means low demand for ETH, which may limit its breakout momentum. Ethereum’s Latest Rally Shows Structural Strength According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, Ethereum’s funding rates across exchanges are relatively muted when compared to the digital asset’s last three major highs. Related Reading: Ethereum Eyes $5,500 Amid Illiquid Supply Crunch And ETF Momentum For instance, during the first major high in early 2024, ETH funding rates across crypto exchanges had surged to 0.8, suggesting excessive long positioning and speculative demand. Shortly, the price topped out as overheated leverage took its toll on the digital asset. During the second peak in late 2024 – as illustrated in the following chart – ETH reached similar price levels but this time with far lower funding rates. Although this hinted at a less speculative market, the lack of strong, sustained momentum eventually weighed down on ETH’s price. In contrast to the above two instances, ETH’s 2025 rally saw it create a new all-time high (ATH) of $4,900 – despite relatively muted funding rates. This brings into focus one key divergence – ETH is hitting new highs even in the absence of aggressive long positioning that fueled earlier rallies. ShayanMarkets states there are two key implications of this new-found divergence. The analyst remarked: On one hand, the market appears more spot-driven and structurally healthier, as price is not being pushed by excessive leverage. On the other hand, the absence of aggressive demand also limits breakout momentum, leaving ETH in a slower-moving environment where new order flow will be essential for continuation. Concluding, the CryptoQuant contributor noted that ETH’s higher highs against declining funding rates show that the current market is more resilient against sudden liquidation cascades. However, it also requires a lot more conviction from buyers to sustain the next leg higher. Is ETH Headed For A Correction? Although ETH is currently trading just about 12% below its ATH, some analysts forecast that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap may be headed for a correction. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows predicted that ETH may drop all the way down to $3,900 before its next rally. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Latest Rally Fueled By Large-Scale Binance Orders, Analyst Says That said, there are several other data metrics that point toward a potential bullish rally for ETH. For instance, the ETH exchange supply ratio on major exchanges like Binance recently hit a low of 0.037, which may aid in the so-called “supply crunch” for the digital asset. In similar news, Ethereum exchange balance recently turned negative for the first time, suggesting that more tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited. At press time, ETH trades at $4,334, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

After hitting its latest all-time high (ATH) on August 14, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a steady decline, trading just above the $110,000 level at the time of writing. While some analysts opine that the crypto bull run may be over, on-chain data suggests that there is at least one more major leg up ahead for BTC. Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Not Quite According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor CoinCare, as much as 50,000 BTC has been withdrawn over the past two days from crypto exchange Kraken. This was followed by another major withdrawal of 15,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that such significant withdrawals are not something that is typically observed near the peak of a bull market cycle. Instead, at market tops, exchanges witness an influx of BTC or other cryptocurrencies, signalling distribution. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes $150,000 As Binance Illiquid Supply Hits Record Highs Although retail demand for BTC is currently fragile, a few big wallets are still accumulating BTC in large quantities. Past data shows that retail demand for BTC surges rapidly at bull market tops. However, the current tepid demand suggests that BTC has “at least one major leg up ahead.” That said, fellow CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy offered a contrasting take. According to their analysis, major BTC holders continue to reduce their exposure to the digital asset, recently reaching the largest coin distribution in 2025. Notably, BTC whale reserves have tumbled by 100,000 coins in the past 30 days, showing high risk aversion among large investors. As a result, heightened selling pressure has been weighing down on the BTC price, pushing it below $108,000 in late August. The analyst added: At this time, we are still seeing these reductions in the portfolios of major players, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks. Technicals Point Toward Renewed Strength While BTC whales – investors holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC – may be reducing their exposure to the cryptocurrency, technicals point toward further room for growth for the leading digital asset by market cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Delta Cap And Coinbase Premium Gap Signal Resilient Market Structure – Details For instance, noted crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared the following chart on X, saying that BTC is close to invalidating the bearish double-top pattern on the daily chart. Once BTC convincingly pushes above the neckline, it could provide new bullish momentum to the asset. That said, there are some signs of caution. For instance, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently stated that if BTC fails to defend the $107,000 – $108,000 support level, then it may risk falling all the way down to $90,000. Similarly, a breakdown below the $98,000 level could spell disaster for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, the long-term bull case for BTC remains intact. At press time, BTC trades at $110,460, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Following a rejection at $4,946 on August 24, Ethereum (ETH) is now trading in the low $4,000 level. However, some analysts are still hopeful that ETH is likely to surge beyond $5,000 in the coming weeks, thanks to its rising illiquid supply and positive exchange-traded fund (ETF) momentum. Ethereum To Hit $5,500 In September? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Ethereum’s latest upswing in August which pushed the digital asset from a range of $3,700 – $4,000 to its latest all-time high (ATH) of $4,946, was largely buoyed by broader market rally and positive ETF inflows. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Latest Rally Fueled By Large-Scale Binance Orders, Analyst Says The analyst noted that ETH reserves on Binance crypto exchange witnessed a sharp uptick in August. The quick surge in inflow of tokens to the exchange shows that holders are choosing to sell or take profits at higher prices. Arab Chain shared the following chart which shows both liquid (green) and illiquid (beige) ETH supply. According to the chart, the vast majority of ETH supply remains illiquid, creating a structural supply shortage. On the other hand, the chart shows a slight increase in the liquid supply, suggesting that a portion of ETH has returned to circulation and could add to short-term selling pressure. The analyst remarked: The overall illiquidity of the supply reinforces the long-term bullish outlook. Short-term cautionary signals – rising Binance reserves combined with a small increase in liquid supply – suggest a potential correction after the recent strong upswing. If the growth in ETH reserves on Binance shows signs of slowing down or withdrawals resume, the digital asset’s supply shortage will remain pronounced. Consequently, a clear and decisive break above the $4,800 resistance level could propel ETH toward $5,200 – $5,500 in the near term. The CryptoQuant analyst concluded by saying that September is likely to witness sideways to a slightly bullish move for ETH between $4,300 to $5,000. However, a failure to break through the $4,800 level – coupled with rising exchange reserves – could raise the possibility of a correction to $4,200. What’s In Store For ETH? While a breakout above $4,800 is possible, some analysts are tempering their expectations by saying that ETH may test the psychologically important $4,000 level before resuming its uptrend. Related Reading: Whales Load Up On Ethereum, But Analysts Fear $4K Dip Ahead Meanwhile, on-chain data shows whales accumulating ETH at record pace. According to a recent report, ETH whales added a whopping 260,000 ETH to their wallets on September 1. Offering a more ambitious prediction, Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin recently said that “ETH will likely 100x from here.” At press time, ETH trades at $4,429, up 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent volatility has unsettled investors, as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap slid by more than five percent over the last two weeks. However, two key on-chain factors indicate that the BTC market structure is largely resilient. Bitcoin Remains Strong Despite Volatility According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor XWIN Research Japan, two important on-chain indicators suggest that despite the recent slump in price, the overall market structure remains strong for the flagship cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Binance Turns Bullish – But Is The Market Setting A Trap? The first is Bitcoin’s Delta Cap – a long-term valuation model derived from the difference between Realized Cap and Average Cap – that has historically acted as a reliable floor during major cycles. In early August, BTC traded above this steadily rising line, suggesting that the market is building a stronger foundation compared to previous drawdowns. A rising Delta Cap also signals capital inflows and long-term investor conviction, even during price corrections. The CryptoQuant analyst shared the following chart showing Delta Cap hovering around $739.4 billion. Although BTC is currently trading below this line, a quick move to $120,000 would likely push the price back above it. The second on-chain factor pointing toward resilience in BTC market structure is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which currently stands at +11.6. The high positive value of the metric suggests stronger demand from US institutions, who are accumulating BTC at a premium. For the uninitiated, the Coinbase Premium Gap measures the price difference of Bitcoin between US exchange Coinbase and global exchanges like Binance. A positive gap means Bitcoin trades at a higher price on Coinbase, often signaling stronger US institutional buying demand. Historically, sustained periods of positive premium have preceded major bullish phases, as institutional accumulation drives price discovery. The analyst concluded: Together, these two metrics point toward a constructive setup: Bitcoin consolidating above $100K with strong institutional support and a long-term valuation floor steadily rising. Corrections, rather than being a sign of weakness, appear to be opportunities for accumulation within a robust structural uptrend. Is BTC Out Of The Woods? Although the two aforementioned on-chain indicators point toward strength in BTC market structure, not all analysts are as optimistic. For instance, a fall below $105,000 might send BTC all the way down to $90,000. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Heading To $256K — Here’s When Another analyst recently warned that if BTC loses the support at $108,600 level, then it could fall further to $104,000. A failure to bounce from $104,000 could see BTC test the psychologically important $100,000 level. That said, Bitcoin’s rapidly rising illiquid supply on Binance may play a pivotal role in sending it to a fresh all-time high (ATH). At press time, BTC trades at $109,289, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped more than 7%, falling from around $117,400 on August 21 to a low of $108,666 earlier today. Despite the bearish slide, some encouraging exchange data suggests improving sentiment. However, analysts warn this could once again be a setup for institutions to trap retail buyers. Bitcoin Sentiment Improves, But Maintain Caution According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisD, the Binance vs. Other Exchanges BTC Volume Delta turned positive on August 25, registering $676 million. This indicates that Binance users have shifted decisively into spot buying mode. Notably, this trend has not been observed on other major exchanges. Since Binance is the world’s largest exchange in terms of liquidity and user base, its flows are often considered a reflection of broader market sentiment. Related Reading: More Pain For Bitcoin? Open Interest Surpasses $40 Billion As Longs Crowd In At present, retail investors appear to be fueling buying pressure. While this can support demand for BTC, it also creates an opening for institutional investors to drive prices lower, flushing out retail positions before the market resumes an upward move. BorisD highlighted that historically, when Binance users increase spot buying, Bitcoin’s price often declines. On the contrary, when selling pressure rises, BTC tends to recover in price. He explained: This dynamic highlights the clear difference between retail and institutional behavior. Retail traders often act emotionally and position themselves on the wrong side, while institutions strategically engineer liquidity around these flows. In conclusion, the analyst said that although rising spot buying on Binance is encouraging, a positive delta does not always mean a bullish signal. On the contrary, it can expose retail buying pressure than can be exploited as an opportunity by institutions. Will BTC Fall Below $100,000 Price Level? Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin can set a new all-time high (ATH) in the near term. Some stress that BTC must hold above the $100,000 level to preserve its overall bullish structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weakness Vs. Ethereum Strength: On-Chain Data Reveals Divergence In a separate analysis, crypto analyst Alphractal remarked that the BTC market seems to be getting ready for its next major move in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index is giving signs of fading momentum, increasing risk of further downside. The Bitcoin market is also witnessing early signs of exhaustion, as asset manager BlackRock recently went on a BTC selling-spree, dumping about $500 million of the digital asset. Still, a number of analysts remain optimistic, with some forecasting a potential ATH of as high as $183,000 later this year. At press time, BTC trades at $109,841, down 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Following another unsuccessful attempt to create a new all-time high (ATH), Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a weekly low of $110,820 on the Binance exchange yesterday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap has now entered a clear pullback phase, with $105,000 emerging as the critical support level that traders are closely watching. Bitcoin Falls To $110,000 Amid Market Pullback According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisD, Bitcoin’s current distribution phase could extend for several more days. Wallet accumulation and distribution patterns highlight stronger sell-offs among BTC whales, raising questions about short-term price stability. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weakness Vs. Ethereum Strength: On-Chain Data Reveals Divergence For context, Bitcoin whales are individuals or entities that hold very large amounts of BTC, typically thousands of coins, giving them outsized influence on market trends. Their buying or selling activity can significantly move prices, making whale behavior a closely watched indicator for traders and analysts. Interestingly, smaller wallet cohorts are showing different behavior. Wallets holding 0–0.1 BTC recently switched back to accumulation mode as the broader market declined. These smaller holders typically follow the price rather than set the trend.  Wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC began accumulating even at ATH levels. This trend suggests retail investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. On the other hand, wallets with 1–10 BTC halted their selling around the $107,000 level and returned to accumulation. This trend hints that mid-sized holders see current price levels as attractive buying opportunities, despite overall market weakness. BTC Whales Continue To Sell Larger holders are displaying more cautious behavior. Wallets with 10–100 BTC stopped accumulating at $118,000 and have since moved into distribution.  BorisD pointed out that wallets with 100–1,000 BTC are the most important group to watch. While generally in accumulation mode, this cohort has shown a balance between buying and selling. The analyst added: They have shown balance between accumulation and distribution since $105,000, reflecting indecision. This level acts as a critical support-turning zone. Meanwhile, wallets with 1,000–10,000 BTC remain in consistent sell-off mode following the ATH of $124,474 reached on August 13. The largest wallets – holding more than 10,000 BTC – also began selling at those highs and continue to distribute. However, the pace of their selling has slowed as the price pulls back, indicating weakening distribution pressure. Related Reading: More Pain For Bitcoin? Open Interest Surpasses $40 Billion As Longs Crowd In The analyst emphasized that although distribution remains the dominant trend, its intensity is waning. The $105,000 support zone now stands out as the most crucial threshold. A decisive break below this level could shake market confidence and trigger widespread fear among investors. Fellow CryptoQuant contributor, Julio Moreno, recently stated that the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index moved into neutral territory. However, it must trade over $112,000 to avoid a sharper price correction. Another prominent crypto analyst, Tony “The Bull” Severino said that BTC’s path to $183,000 remains intact. At press time, BTC trades at $111,349, down 2.7% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) stalls near the $113,000 level, Ethereum (ETH) continues to show strength, highlighting a clear divergence in price action between the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap. This contrast has some investors considering a rotation from BTC into ETH to capture the latter’s bullish momentum. Bitcoin Shows Correction Risks – Is ETH Safe? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data reveals underlying weakness in BTC price action. By contrast, ETH is displaying notable resilience even as broader crypto market momentum fades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Below $115,000 While Spot Volume Surges Past $6 Billion – Recovery Ahead? Currently, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves are hovering around 2.53 million BTC, showing little sign of declining despite recent volatility. For context, BTC has fallen 5.4% over the past week. Historically, shrinking exchange reserves have indicated BTC moving off exchanges for long-term holding, which reduces near-term sell pressure. This time, however, reserves remain flat, suggesting that a significant portion of BTC supply is still liquid and available for selling. Flat exchange reserves – combined with BTC’s recent drop from $123,000 to $113,000 – have raised red flags for a possible short-term correction. Meanwhile, ETH’s on-chain dynamics tell a very different story. Unlike BTC, ETH has consistently recorded large net outflows from exchanges, with multiple spikes exceeding 300,000 ETH in late July and mid-August. XWIN Research Japan explained: Outflows usually reflect coins moving into cold storage, staking, or institutional custody, tightening the available supply on the open market. ETH’s price has been between $4.150 to $4,400, aligning with the outflow trend and reinforcing a bullish narrative of a potential supply shock. In short, while BTC is consolidating with lingering sell-side liquidity, ETH’s declining exchange balances signal rising institutional demand. These opposing dynamics suggest capital may be rotating from BTC to ETH. Different Dynamics Between BTC And ETH Beyond exchange reserves, other indicators also highlight further downside risk for BTC and growing institutional interest in ETH, reinforcing the market’s preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 For instance, noted crypto analyst Xanrox recently offered a dramatic price prediction for BTC, stating that it may crash all the way down to $60,000 – almost a 50% fall from its current market price. Meanwhile, whales continue to increase their exposure to ETH, growing their holdings at a rapid pace as ETH’s relative strength compared to BTC improves. Yesterday, an Ethereum whale went long on $300 million worth of ETH on-chain. From a technical perspective as well, things look positive for ETH, with a potential recovery to $4,788 on the cards. At press time, BTC trades at $112,283, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $114,386 earlier today, triggering nearly $300 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours as investor confidence in the asset remains shaky. Still, rising spot trading volumes offer a glimmer of hope that BTC may now be entering an accumulation phase. Is Bitcoin In The Accumulation Phase? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, Binance’s BTC spot trading volume surpassed $6 billion on August 18 – one of the most significant spikes this month. Taha noted that such sudden spikes typically signal increased participation from institutional investors and large traders, along with some retail activity looking to capitalize on heightened volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $115,000 As Binance Buying Power Ratio Collapses It’s worth noting that the surge in Binance spot volume coincided with BTC’s drop below $115,000 – a movement that can serve as a leading indicator of a potential reversal in price momentum. Historical data suggests that strong spot buying during price dips often reflects traders stepping in to accumulate BTC at discounted prices. This dynamic can ease selling pressure and lay the foundation for a rebound if demand persists. Taha also highlighted that the increase in Binance spot volume occurred alongside a decline in the Binance Whale-to-Exchange Flow, which fell from $6.4 billion to $5 billion – a $1.4 billion drop in whale transfers to Binance over the past week. This reduction in whale deposits suggests fewer large holders are sending BTC to exchanges for potential selling, a trend generally considered bullish. Taha concluded: Bringing these elements together – a surge in Binance spot volume, rising demand during a price dip, and a decline in whale deposits – the market is showing early signs of stabilization. If accumulation continues at current levels, Bitcoin has a solid chance to recover and retest higher resistance levels in the near term. From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that BTC is still following its weekly trendline. If the trend holds, BTC could target $130,000 in the coming weeks. Warning Signs For September While Taha suggests BTC may currently be in an accumulation phase with the possibility of a trend reversal in the coming months, other analysts remain cautious. Crypto analyst Josh Olszewics warned that BTC must survive a “brutal September” before any meaningful rebound can occur in Q4 2025. Related Reading: Bearish Case For Bitcoin: Analyst Warns Macro Top Is In Similarly, CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest cautioned that the next 1–2 weeks may bring heightened selling pressure for the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization. At press time, BTC trades at $115,489, down 0.1% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $115,000 for the first time since August 6, raising concerns that the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum may be fading. Against this backdrop, the Binance Buying Power Ratio suggests that demand for BTC could be weakening, potentially setting the stage for a deeper price correction. Binance Buying Power Ratio Raises Alarms According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the Binance Buying Power Ratio serves as a reliable indicator of overall market health. The analyst explained that the current reading points to a possible downturn for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Near $119,000 As Lower Leverage Reduces Correction Risk To explain, the ratio measures stablecoin inflows against Bitcoin outflows on Binance, essentially showing how much new capital is available to buy BTC compared to how much is leaving the exchange. A rising ratio reflects strong buying power and liquidity, while a sharp drop signals weaker demand and a greater risk of correction. Recently, the ratio suffered a steep decline, issuing what the analyst called a “textbook warning” just before BTC’s latest price drop. The correction saw Bitcoin fall from as high as $124,474 on August 13 to a low of $114,786 earlier today. The analyst noted that the ratio peaked at 2.01 on August 14, showing peak buying pressure where for every $1 of BTC moving to cold storage, more than $2 in stablecoins entered the market.  In the following days – from August 16 to 17 – the ratio witnessed a sharp reversal, crashing to -0.81 within 48 hours. As a result, more buying power left Binance than entered it, confirming that the BTC market’s primary fuel source was exhausted. Subsequently, BTC underwent a sustained price correction, falling 4.7% over the past seven days. Currently, the cryptocurrency is hovering slightly below $115,000, while its next major support lies around the $110,000 level. Crazzyblockk concluded: This analysis proves that Binance is the market’s center of gravity. Its capital flows are an early warning system. A falling Buying Power Ratio signals exhausted liquidity and high correction risk. For any serious analyst, monitoring Binance isn’t optional – it’s essential. How Will Bitcoin Perform In September? If Bitcoin avoids slipping below $110,000, the short-term holder cost basis model suggests its next major resistance lies around $127,000. A strong breakout above this level could send BTC climbing toward $140,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases In a separate X post, crypto analyst KillaXBT said BTC must hold above $115,787 to target the $125,000 – $127,000 range in September. However, the analyst warned that even if Bitcoin opens the month with a fresh all-time high, it may not guarantee sustained bullish momentum. At press time, BTC trades at $114,988, down 2.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) created a fresh all-time high (ATH) yesterday, touching $124,474 on Binance before stabilizing around $118,000 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have surged significantly, raising concerns about a potential price correction. Bitcoin Reserves Spike On Binance: Time To Worry? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have seen a sharp increase in recent months. The exchange holds the largest BTC reserves, supported by its high liquidity and the largest trading volume in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes ATH With Falling Average Executed Order Size And Rising Retail Activity From the end of July until today, Binance-based BTC reserves have reversed a previous downtrend, climbing to 579,000 BTC. Arab Chain shared the following chart illustrating how BTC reserves – after a period of scarcity – have reversed course and now signal a short-term warning. Notably, BTC reserves on Binance had previously declined by approximately 50,000 to 60,000 BTC, a 9% to 10% drop from the 2024 peak to the July 2025 low. Recently, reserves recovered slightly, rising by 25,000 to 30,000 BTC, an increase of 5% to 6%. Despite this recovery, BTC reserves remain well below the peaks of late 2024, indicating that structural scarcity has not yet fully dissipated. Arab Chain highlighted two potential reasons for the recent spike in reserves. First, profit-taking or short-term supply could increase when traders – including whales and market makers – deposit BTC on exchanges. They may do this to sell part of their holdings or to use the digital asset as collateral in derivatives markets. Second, a liquidity boost for BTC can occur when growing demand leads to the replenishment of liquidity pools. Market makers may also rebalance their portfolios to help smooth price spreads. The analyst concluded: In practice, if daily or weekly reserve increases persist alongside high positive funding rates and rising open interest, the likelihood of a short-term correction grows. However, if reserves stabilize or decline quickly, this would suggest renewed scarcity and a continuation of the uptrend. BTC Rally Losing Momentum? BTC pulled back from its recent ATH, trading slightly above $118,000 at the time of writing, signaling a short-term price correction. Some analysts warn that this might indicate the flagship cryptocurrency is losing momentum. Related Reading: Two Forces Can Launch Bitcoin To $1 Million, Says Mike Novogratz In addition to rising exchange reserves, the Binance whale-to-exchange flow metric also points to increased selling pressure. The spike in Binance miner distributions reinforces this signal. That said, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Axel Adler notes that BTC’s current market structure makes a severe price correction unlikely. At press time, BTC trades at $118,464, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover just below the $120,000 level, miners have increased transfers to Binance crypto exchange. According to analysts, elevated BTC transfers to Binance could signal an upcoming price correction for the top cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price Correction Upcoming? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, there was a significant spike in BTC transfers from miners to Binance crypto exchange in late July – shown in the form of double tops in the following chart. These spikes were followed by several days of above-average flows to the exchange. Early August saw another surge, with transfers ranging from several thousand BTC to more than 10,000 BTC at their peak. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run At Risk? Binance Whale-To-Exchange Flow Signals Price Correction This activity suggests that miners are continuing to distribute BTC to the exchange. The selling comes as the asset’s price remains close to its all-time high (ATH) of nearly $120,000. Arab Chain noted that compared to the April–June period, the current miner activity resembles “stockpiling or hedging behavior” rather than typical low-noise patterns. The analyst shared several behavioral indicators to support this view. For instance, sustained high inflows during elevated price levels suggest that miners are taking advantage of the rally to secure liquidity, cover operational costs, or manage post-halving treasury needs. However, such large inflows are often linked to short-term resistance. The market must have sufficient buying liquidity to absorb this supply and prevent it from triggering a sharp price decline. The high frequency of peaks over the past two weeks also indicates that this is not a one-off occurrence. Instead, it marks a phase of heightened activity among Binance miners, which increases Bitcoin’s price sensitivity to any drop in demand. According to Arab Chain, if daily flows remain above the recent weekly average – roughly 5,000 to 7,000 BTC per day – it would point to ongoing supply pressure. Conversely, a rapid drop back to lower levels would suggest that the distribution wave was temporary and has already been absorbed. BTC May Be Preparing For A New ATH Despite consolidating just under $120,000, recent on-chain data shows few signs of the Bitcoin market overheating. In addition, the average executed order size in the Bitcoin futures market has been steadily declining, indicating greater retail participation in the rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Turn To ‘Smart DCA’ As Market Trades Below On-Chain Fair Value Of $117,700 That said, a significant portion of short-term BTC holders have moved into profit, which could set the stage for a sell-off. At press time, BTC trades at $118,970, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $122,000 for the first time since July 13, coming close to a new all-time high (ATH) before paring some gains, trading slightly above $119,500 at the time of writing. Bitcoin Eyes New ATH With Retail-Driven Rally According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, the average executed order size in the Bitcoin futures market has declined significantly over the past few months. This suggests that the recent price rally is being driven primarily by retail investors rather than institutional players. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Data Signals Fear As Binance Net Taker Volume Turns Bearish For context, the average executed order size is calculated by dividing the total traded volume by the number of executed orders. This metric helps identify whether market activity is dominated by retail participants or large-scale investors. ShayanMarkets shared the following chart showing large yellow and green clusters in late 2024 and early 2025, which corresponded with substantial whale inflows and fueled strong bullish rallies. However, recent weeks have seen a noticeable rise in red clusters, indicating that smaller, retail-sized orders are taking a larger share of market activity. The analyst noted that historically, whale dominance near market peaks has often coincided with local tops. Whale involvement in the BTC futures market has declined since Q2 2025, which could mean that institutional buyers are either holding existing positions from lower levels or waiting for more favorable re-entry points. ShayanMarkets concluded: This dynamic leaves Bitcoin in a position where a bullish breakout above its prior ATH could materialize in the coming weeks, unless renewed whale activity emerges to offload positions, triggering a distribution phase. Recent on-chain analysis suggests that BTC may currently be in a distribution phase. In a separate CryptoQuant post, analyst BorisVest noted that investors are employing a strategy called Smart dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to accumulate BTC at current levels ahead of potential price appreciation. Smart DCA is an upgraded version of the traditional DCA strategy, where investment amounts and timing are adjusted based on market conditions instead of fixed intervals. In crypto, it often uses indicators like moving average or RSI to increase buying during undervaluation phases. Is BTC At Risk Of A Price Correction? While rising retail participation in the BTC futures market can signal organic demand for the flagship cryptocurrency, other indicators point to a possible price correction that could disrupt Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Market Flashes Warning: IBIT Outflows Paired With Drop In Tron USDT Transfers For example, fresh on-chain data shows an uptick in Binance whale-to-exchange flows, often a precursor to near-term price pullbacks. In addition, recent changes in Bitcoin whales’ realized cap suggest a degree of fragility in the market. That said, not all signals are bearish. Some analysts believe BTC could be gearing up for another rally in the second half of the year, with targets as high as $150,000. At press time, BTC trades at $119,583, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com