Following the success of Kalshi and Polymarket, major firms such as Coinbase and Gemini have moved to enter the prediction markets space.
The bank said event markets are still tiny versus stocks but are rapidly expanding beyond sports into macro and policy risk.
According to a report from CNBC, Coinbase (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, is preparing to launch its own prediction market in collaboration with Kalshi, one of the largest federally regulated financial exchanges in the country. Coinbase Teases Major Updates The anticipation surrounding the prediction market has been building for nearly a month. Recently, a screenshot of what appears to be Coinbase’s prediction markets dashboard was shared by Silicon Valley researcher Jane Manchun Wong in a post on social media site X (previously Twitter), shedding some light on the features of the forthcoming product. Related Reading: Crypto Market Dips: The Reasons Behind Bitcoin Plunge Below $90,000 Despite FOMC Optimism The Information first indicated on November 19 that Coinbase planned to introduce these prediction markets powered by Kalshi, with a formal unveiling set for the “Coinbase System Update” event scheduled for December 17. Formal announcements regarding this new platform are expected soon, potentially as early as next week. Bloomberg corroborated this report, stating that the cryptocurrency exchange is also likely to announce a tokenized stock offering during the same event, in line with Tether’s same vision reported earlier this week. While Coinbase has refrained from confirming these developments directly to CNBC, the company has encouraged stakeholders to tune in to its upcoming event for more details. The firm did not disclose a specific timeline for when the prediction markets will become available to users. ‘Everything Exchange’ Status Coinbase’s push to launch a prediction market is part of a broader strategy to transform itself into an “everything exchange”—a comprehensive platform for trading a wide variety of assets, including cryptocurrencies, tokenized stocks, and event contracts. CEO Brian Armstrong articulated this vision earlier in May, stressing that the cryptocurrency exchange aims to evolve into a leading financial services application within the next decade. This development comes as Coinbase faces increasing competition from rivals like Robinhood (HOOD), Gemini (GEMI), and Kraken, all of whom have introduced tokenized equity offerings for users outside the US and are exploring prediction markets to varying extents. Related Reading: Report Reveals 65% Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies Struggling With Major Unrealized Losses Coinbase is expanding its range of financial instruments while making a series of acquisitions this year. These include major deals such as the purchase of the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit and the on-chain advertising firm Spindl, as well as seven other major acquisitions. This also follows a shift in investor sentiment in the digital asset space, with the largest cryptocurrencies — including Bitcoin (BTC) — having retraced by over 30% since October amid fears of a new bear market beginning. Over the past months, the exchange’s stock, which trades under the ticker name COIN, has also seen a significant drop of over 39%, with the current valuation standing at $267 per share. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Phantom users will be able to chat and trade Kalshi's prediction markets with any Solana-based tokens, CEO said.
Once mired in legal trouble that included federal probes and law enforcement raids, Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan has emerged victorious this year, casting off the yoke of regulatory scrutiny and growing the prediction market he founded into a $9 billion betting empire.
Between Kalshi and Polymarket, the two prediction markets platforms have generated a cumulative volume exceeding $45 billion.
The state issued cease-and-desist orders to the firms to stop conducting "unlicensed online gambling" via their sports events contracts.
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A recent $1 billion funding round led by Paradigm puts Kalshi co-founders Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour on the billionaire list.
The deal brings market-implied probabilities into CNN’s newsroom and introduces a Kalshi-powered ticker for segments that rely on event contracts.
Kalshi data will be integrated across CNN programming, and will be used by its newsroom, data and production team.
Kalshi secures a massive funding boost led by Paradigm, widening its lead over Polymarket as trading volumes surge and both platforms pursue fresh capital.
The prediction market is rolling out tokenized contracts on Solana to meet crypto traders where they already are, Kalshi told CNBC.
If you open your brokerage this year and a “Markets” tab seems to be sprouting unfamiliar yes/no questions (“Will the Fed cut rates in March?”, “Will a major ETF get approved this quarter?”), you wouldn’t necessarily be hallucinating. The recent regulatory green-light for Polymarket via a cleared path under its newest acquisition of an exchange […]
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Market share data shows the pair now dominates sector-wide flows, forming a fast-consolidating duopoly amid growing capital formation.
The court cases will continue for the moment.
Prediction markets have quickly become one of the hottest private market themes in crypto and fintech, echoing earlier cycles.
Nevada’s ruling says sports outcome contracts on a federally regulated exchange are not swaps, opening the door for state gambling laws to apply.
Robinhood is deepening its foray into prediction markets with plans to launch a derivatives exchange through a new JV with Susquehanna.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant prediction market platforms, which have seen around $42.4 billion in cumulative volume.
Investors participating in the round include Sequoia, CapitalG, a16z, Paradigm, Anthos Capital, and Neo, according to TechCrunch.
The CFTC-regulated exchange is gaining ground on crypto-native Polymarket, offering event contracts with fiat access and legal clarity.
The FanDuel Predicts app is set to offer event contracts on sports, crypto prices and other benchmark assets, according to the release.
This marks a milestone for Polymarket, which left the US due to an enforcement case with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The news comes a week after Google said it will integrate predictions data from Polymarket and Kalshi directly into its search results.
Led by Polymarket and Kalshi, prediction markets have become a high-growth sector within digital assets as they let users wager on events.
Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the US by the end of this month, and has teased an upcoming token launch.
Polymarket’s U.S. comeback follows record trading volumes and growing competition in the prediction market sector.
Kalshi argues that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives on federally regulated exchanges, and state interference would fragment the system.
That level would mark a more than 10-fold increase since June, when Polymarket raised $200 million at a $1 billion valuation.