JPMorgan says the Iran war has produced an unusual market split: bitcoin is showing signs of safe-haven demand while gold and silver, the traditional geopolitical hedges, have weakened under the pressure of outflows, profit-taking and deteriorating liquidity. In a report dated March 26, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team said bitcoin has held up better than precious metals since the conflict escalated. Gold is down about 15% this month, according to the bank, while gold ETFs recorded nearly $11 billion in outflows in the first three weeks of March. Silver has also come under pressure, with JPMorgan saying ETF inflows built since last summer have now been unwound, even as bitcoin funds continued to post net inflows over the same stretch. Bitcoin Shows Safe-Haven Demand That divergence is not just a price story. JPMorgan argues it is also visible in positioning and market structure. Gold and silver had become heavily crowded trades after a run that pushed gold close to $5,500 an ounce and silver near $120 earlier this year. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Price Bottom Is Close, But There Is Still A Crash Below $60,000 Left As rates rose, the dollar strengthened and investors moved to de-risk, those positions started to unwind. CME-based positioning shows a sharp drop in gold and silver exposure since January, while bitcoin futures holdings have stayed comparatively stable in recent weeks. The bank’s explanation is more nuanced than a simple “bitcoin replaced gold” narrative. Bitcoin initially sold off with other risk assets when the war broke out, briefly falling into the low-$60,000 range before stabilizing back in the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 area. JPMorgan’s point is that bitcoin did not behave like a classic shelter in the first shock phase, but it recovered as flows returned, while gold and silver kept losing support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Lacks One Key Ingredient, Glassnode Warns JPMorgan also tied that relative resilience to crypto’s utility in a stressed jurisdiction. “The deterioration in liquidity conditions in gold has seen its market breadth decline below that of bitcoin currently,” the bank wrote. In a separate summary of the same report, JPMorgan said, “The surge in Iran’s crypto activity highlights the role of cryptocurrencies as a safe haven asset in countries experiencing economic and monetary instability and geopolitical stress.” The bank cited Chainalysis data showing increased Iranian crypto activity after the outbreak of war, including transfers from domestic exchanges into self-custody wallets and international platforms. That combination of borderless settlement, self-custody and round-the-clock trading sits at the center of the bank’s argument. Bitcoin’s momentum indicators, which had fallen into oversold territory, are now moving back toward neutral, JPMorgan said, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. Gold and silver momentum, by contrast, swung from overbought to below-neutral as liquidations accelerated. The bank’s liquidity work points the same way: gold’s market breadth has now fallen below bitcoin’s, while silver’s thinner depth has made its decline even more violent. At press time, BTC traded at $68,597. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Dimon argued stablecoin issuers paying interest should meet bank standards as talks continue in Washington about the CLARITY Act.
JPMorgan is sticking with its long-run bitcoin upside framework, including a $266,000 per-coin target, even as the bank flags near-term stress signals around mining economics and still-chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026. The bank’s latest read hinges on two pillars: a “soft” floor around bitcoin’s production cost, and a valuation model that maps bitcoin’s potential market cap against private-sector gold investment on a volatility-adjusted basis. In the near term, JPMorgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to produce a bitcoin at roughly $77,000, while bitcoin was trading around the mid-$60,000s in the same analysis window, putting spot below breakeven for less efficient operators. JP Morgan Remains Bullish On Bitcoin Historically, JPMorgan argues, production cost tends to behave like “soft” support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflexive: if prices stay below profitability for long enough, weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower, and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above spot. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital (not retail or corporate treasuries) is the marginal buyer that can restart flows when the macro backdrop stabilizes. As JPMorgan put it: “We are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets, driven by institutional investors.” JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 “call,” but as the mathematical end point of a gold-parity thought experiment. In the bank’s model, matching the scale of private gold investment (roughly $8 trillion, excluding central banks) implies a bitcoin price around $266,000, a level the analysts themselves described as “unrealistic” in the near term. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming The bridge between “unrealistic now” and “possible later,” in JPMorgan’s framing, is volatility. The bank has pointed to a bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards and argues that gold’s surge since October alongside rising gold volatility has improved bitcoin’s relative appeal over the long run. “The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote. JPMorgan’s stance effectively splits the tape into two timeframes: a messy adjustment process if bitcoin remains below mining breakevens, and a longer-duration bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the asset’s role versus gold as 2026 unfolds. At press time, BTC traded at $66,229. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As Siemens uses JPMorgan's blockchain for FX transfers, the bank plans to scale JPM Coin across privacy-focused and public networks
The largest U.S. bank is exploring spot and derivatives services for hedge funds and pensions as regulatory clarity improves, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
JP Morgan Chase & Co. has formally entered the contest for on-chain cash, and the prize is not just a new product line. It is the billions of dollars in institutional capital that now sit in zero-yield stablecoins and early tokenized funds. On Dec. 15, the $4 trillion banking giant launched the My OnChain Net […]
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Galaxy’s onchain debt deal, where JP Morgan acted as arranger, was settled in USDC stablecoin and backed by Coinbase and Franklin Templeton.
JPMorgan Chase has introduced a structured note linked to BlackRock's IBIT that matches BTC's four-year halving cycle.
JPMorgan’s Kinexys and DBS Bank plan an interoperability system for tokenised deposits, linking their blockchain networks for 24/7 cross-border settlements.
The bank disclosed a $343 million stake in iShares Bitcoin Trust, signaling continued institutional demand for bitcoin exposure
The XRP community has been called to attention after a new analysis linked the cryptocurrency’s trajectory to a powerful market force that many have overlooked. A recent breakdown by crypto analyst Austin Hilton has spotlighted a direct connection between XRP and Bitcoin that could shape how investors position themselves ahead of what could be one of the most explosive altcoin runs in years. How Bitcoin’s Performance Could Dictate XRP’s Next Move Hilton shared a video analysis on X social media, discussing a simple yet powerful correlation that shows the Bitcoin price action tends to influence the direction of XRP. At the time of his analysis, XRP was trading around $3, posting a 1.65% increase, while the total crypto market capitalization stood at approximately $4.21 trillion, up by 1.3%. Related Reading: XRP Flips Green For First Time Since 2017, Pundit Predicts 500% Rally Within this massive market, Bitcoin alone accounted for approximately $2.45 trillion, which represents 58% of the entire cryptocurrency market cap. Hilton noted that this overwhelming dominance positions BTC as the central gravity point of the crypto ecosystem. According to him, when the Bitcoin price rises, XRP typically follows, and when it falls, XRP tends to move in the same direction. He stated that the reason lies in the market’s capital structure. Bitcoin remains the most recognizable digital asset, boasting the strongest institutional and retail liquidity. Its price movements influence how capital flows into other major cryptocurrencies, particularly XRP, which has consistently held the third-largest market capitalization position. Adding significant weight to Hilton’s analysis is the growing involvement of major financial institutions in the crypto market. Both JP Morgan and Citigroup recently made public forecasts, projecting that Bitcoin could rise to between $133,000 and over $200,000 by the end of the year. This represents a dramatic reversal from JP Morgan’s position a year ago, when its CEO, Jamie Dimon, dismissed BTC as a “ponzie scheme,” even as the bank was quietly investing in the cryptocurrency and its ETF. Hilton has stated that these institutional endorsements point to a potential historic bull run in the making. Additionally, because XRP is so tightly correlated with Bitcoin’s performance, a surge to $200,000 could ignite a strong upward momentum. Liquidity Flow To Push XRP Price Beyond $20 In his video analysis, Hilton emphasized that understanding liquidity flows in crypto is crucial for XRP holders. Bitcoin, as the dominant asset, attracts the bulk of new capital entering the market. Once that liquidity flows into BTC, it naturally shifts into other top assets, such as Ethereum and XRP. Related Reading: Analyst Warns That No Matter What Direction XRP Price Takes, The End Result Is Still The Same With ETH’s market cap at roughly $546 billion and XRP at $179 billion, Hilton notes that XRP sits in a prime position to benefit directly from this capital movement. As a result, if Bitcoin jumps to $200,000 in Q4, the analyst predicts that XRP could surge to $10-$20 or more by year-end. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
The inaugural transaction State Street anchored was a $100 million digital commercial paper issuance by OCBC.
A coalition of fintech and crypto trade groups is urging the White House to defend open banking and stop JPMorgan from charging fees to access customer data.
Speaking on his bank's second quarter earnings call, the famous crypto skeptic acknowledged that stablecoins are "real."
The tokenization initiative could lay groundwork for standardized carbon infrastructure underpinned by blockchain tech, the firms said.
Solana ETF applications are nearing the deadline for a preliminary decision before the end of January, days after President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.
Investors are boosting Bitcoin allocations as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, the bank said.
The increases partly reflect a “HODL premium” akin to MicroStrategy’s, the analysts said.
Deutsche Bank joins fellow investors Peak XV Partners, JP Morgan, Jump Trading Group, Standard Chartered, Temasek and Valor Capital Group.
Parfin’s Ethereum Layer-2 chain, Rayls, was recently featured in JP Morgan’s blockchain-focused business unit’s Project EPIC, highlighting the network’s secure and compliant identity solutions to address privacy needs in regulated financial markets. Related Reading: Interview With 3Commas CEO Yuriy Sorokin On Automated Trading, Tokenization, And What’s Next For Crypto Adoption Parfin’s Ethereum L2 Blockchain Privacy […]
The fund touts leveraged exposure to Bitcoin and gold as investors brace for inflation and geopolitical strife.
If Donald Trump wins the United States presidential elections in November, the trend could accelerate, according to the report.
BTC miners are struggling to adapt to a post-halving environment.
Permission-based repo ledgers are among the most successful applications of blockchain technology.
In a recent analysis, JP Morgan’s Global Markets Strategy team has shed light on key developments within the Ethereum network that could significantly influence its classification under securities law. The report comes at a critical juncture for ETH, as the Swiss-based foundation is under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Why Ethereum […]
BlackRock will use J.P. Morgan and Jane Street as their authorized participants. Valkyrie has also named Jane Street in addition to Cantor Fitzgerald.