Bitcoin has been on a tear lately. Prices jumped past $123,000 this week. Now, new figures show that fresh money is flowing into the market again. That’s a sharp change after months of muted retail interest. Related Reading: Avalanche Shatters Record With 20M Transactions—Is Real-World Use Finally Here? Fresh Capital Flooding In According to on‑chain data from Glassnode, first‑time buyers picked up an extra 140,000 BTC over the past two weeks. Their holdings climbed from 4.77 million to nearly 5 million BTC—a 2.86% rise. That influx of fresh coins helped push Bitcoin past its latest high. It also shows that new investors are gaining confidence in the world’s biggest cryptocurrency. Over the past two weeks, the supply held by first-time $BTC buyers rose by +2.86%, climbing from 4.77M to 4.91M #BTC. Fresh capital continues to enter the market, supporting the latest price breakout. pic.twitter.com/W95HSAMaHI — glassnode (@glassnode) July 17, 2025 Short‑Term Holders Hit A New Cost Base Newer players aren’t the only ones getting active. Based on reports, entities that bought Bitcoin within the last six months now sit on a cost basis above $100,000 for the first time. They’ve held on through price swings and have not yet sold at a loss. That suggests many expect the rally to continue. At the same time, holding on tight could create pressure if prices dip below their average buy‑in point. Dip Buyers Act Fast Glassnode’s cost‑basis heatmap revealed that buyers moved quickly when Bitcoin dipped below $116,000 earlier this week. About 196,600 BTC changed hands between $116,000 and $118,000. That buying spree added over $23 million in value near what looks like a local top. It’s a sign of strong resolve from those backing the market at lower levels. Altcoin Chat Outpaces Bitcoin Searches While whales and newer buyers are busy, the crowd on Google seems less thrilled. Search activity for “Bitcoin” ticked up modestly in the last fortnight, but it’s well below the highs seen when BTC first broke $100,000 this year. At the same time, data from Santiment indicate chatter has shifted toward altcoins. With Ethereum grabbing the spotlight, many retail investors appear more excited by tokens promising bigger short‑term moves. Related Reading: If You’re Wealthy, 1 Bitcoin Should Already Be In Your Wallet, Expert Says Retail Interest Remains Muted Despite soaring prices, everyday investors haven’t jumped back in en masse. Based on reports, the broad public’s FOMO hasn’t shown up in a big way yet. That lack of widespread buzz could limit how far and how fast Bitcoin goes from here. In past rallies, it was the flood of curiosity from casual buyers that turned spikes into parabolic runs. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how $136,000 could be the next price level of importance for Bitcoin, if current momentum continues. This Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Level Is Situated At $136,000 In a new thread on X, Glassnode has discussed what a few different on-chain indicators suggest regarding where Bitcoin is in the current cycle. The first metric shared by the analytics firm is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which measures the average acquisition price of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $117,000 Amid $3.5 Billion Profit-Taking Frenzy Below is a chart showing the trend in this metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price broke above the STH Cost Basis earlier in the year and has since remained above the line, indicating the STHs as a whole have been in a state of net profit. In the same chart, the analytics firm has also marked a few other levels, each corresponding to a specific standard deviation (SD) from the STH Cost Basis. With the recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH) above $123,000, BTC was able to breach the +1 SD level, which has historically corresponded to heated market conditions. After the pullback, though, the coin has returned below the mark, but still remains close to it. “If this momentum continues, the next key level is $136k (2 +std), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks,” explains Glassnode. While Bitcoin is still not overheated from the perspective of the STH Cost Basis model, other indicators paint a different picture. The STH Supply In Profit, an indicator tracking the percentage of the cohort’s supply that’s sitting on some gain, has recently surged far above the 88% threshold that has separated high-risk euphoric phases. Another metric, measuring the percentage of STH volume that’s leading to profit realization, also similarly saw a jump significantly above the historical overheated cutoff of 62%. “Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets, but repeated signals at these levels typically precede local tops and warrant caution,” notes the analytics firm. During this spike of profit-taking, the ratio between the profit and loss being realized by the Bitcoin STHs spiked to a 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) value of 39.8. This is a value that’s, once again, extreme by historical standards. That said, spikes like this have generally occurred multiple times over the course of a cycle, before a top is finally attained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Under $117,000: Is Social Media FOMO To Blame? “Historically, cycle tops follow with a lag, leaving room for further upside,” says Glassnode. “However, risk is elevated and the market becomes increasingly sensitive to external shocks. The current pullback aligns with this pattern.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $118,800, up more than 8% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
It's more than a five-month high for ETH thanks to tailwinds from corporate ether treasury strategies and ETF inflows.
Supply gaps and $3.5 billion in realized profits trigger 5%-6% price pullback.
Bitcoin has set a new all-time high (ATH) above $118,000, but on-chain data from Glassnode shows BTC volume remains low despite the breakout. Bitcoin Volume Still At Historically Low Levels Just recently, Glassnode had revealed that volume related to Bitcoin had dropped to yearly lows, potentially hinting at the start of a summer lull. Now, following the breakout to new highs, the on-chain analytics firm has shared updated data in a reply to an X user, showcasing how volume has changed since. From the chart, it’s visible that both the Spot and Futures Volumes, corresponding to Bitcoin trading activity occurring on the spot and futures platforms, respectively, plummeted at the end of June and remained low into early July. Related Reading: Solana Breaks Out Of Symmetrical Triangle—Next Stop $164? With the latest price breakout, however, both metrics have seen an increase, suggesting activity has noted an uplift across both the spot and futures markets. That said, while there has indeed been an uptick in trading, volumes still remain low when compared to history. Historically, rallies have usually only been sustainable when they have been able to capture mass attention from the traders. This is because the fresh activity is what ends up providing fuel for these runs to keep going. “The takeaway here is that BTC hit an ATH despite thin liquidity – worth paying attention to,” notes the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the activity increase would continue in the coming days or if the lull is here to stay. In some other news, a key Bitcoin indicator still remains outside the euphoria zone, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. The metric in question is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of the long-term holders. The NUPL measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of unrealized profit or loss that the BTC investors are currently holding. Here, the NUPL of the long-term holders (LTHs) specifically is of interest, who are the investors holding their coins for more than 155 days. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL over the past year. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin LTH NUPL has observed a rise alongside the latest price rally as LTH profits have grown. However, despite this, the indicator stands at 0.69, which is under the 0.75 level that has historically separated euphoric markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Not Just Hype—$4.4B Inflows Back The Move “This cycle has seen just ~30 days above the 0.75 threshold, compared to 228 days in the previous cycle,” says the analytics firm. The metric was last above this level in February. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $118,000, up over 9% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The stack sizes of long term and short term holders typically move in opposite directions.
Stubborn long-term supply hints at higher price targets despite recent selling.
Data of the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio suggests investors have stronger purchasing power today than during the previous bull rally. Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio Showing Neutral Purchasing Power In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) of Bitcoin. This indicator measures the ratio between the Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bounces Back With 8% Gain—Is $0.26 In Sight? Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that have their price tied to a fiat currency. The SSR specifically measures the supply of the stablecoins tied to the US Dollar (USD). As for the role that these assets play in the sector, Glassnode explains: Stablecoins have become a critical component of the digital asset ecosystem, serving as the primary quote asset for trading across both centralized and decentralized venues. Functionally, they represent readily available capital, or “dry powder”, available for digital asset purchases. As such, the SSR compares the Bitcoin supply against this available dry powder. In other words, it tells us about how the cryptocurrency compares against the investor’s purchasing power. When the value of the metric is high, it means the BTC supply is high compared to the stablecoin supply. In other words, the trader’s purchasing power is weak. On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests there is high dry powder available relative to the BTC supply. In the context of the current discussion, the SSR itself isn’t of focus, but rather a modified indicator called the SSR Oscillator. According to the analytics firm, the metric measures “how the 200d SMA of the SSR moves within the Bollinger Bands BB(200, 2).” Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR Oscillator over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR Oscillator has been close to the zero mark during the last couple of months, indicating the investor purchasing power is more or less neutral compared to the size of the BTC supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Upper Bound Is $117,000, Glassnode Says From the chart, it’s visible that the trend was different during the rally beyond $100,000 that occurred late last year. Back then, the SSR Oscillator took on a highly positive value, suggesting the stablecoin supply was low relative to BTC. The cryptocurrency is currently also trading around the same levels as then, yet the SSR is showing a different story. “Despite similar price levels, this shift suggests that investor purchasing power has improved markedly, reflecting stronger underlying demand conditions,” notes the report. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,500, up over 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Long-term holders have been selling their BTC as U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs see continued inflows.
Bitcoin returned to its familiar price range over the week after a dip last weekend brought its price to just under $99,000. This was followed by a bounce to the $106,000 price level, which has given bulls a reason to remain hopeful. However, on-chain data shows some deeper cracks are forming beneath the surface. The latest on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode shows growing signs of fatigue in both spot and futures markets. These are conditions that may again cause Bitcoin price to retest $99,000. Price Support Holds, But Momentum is Clearly Fading Bitcoin has gone through multiple price swings in recent days, but it has found its way back to the narrow $100,000 to $110,000 band that has defined market structure since early May. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that strong accumulation between $93,000 and $100,000, which is visible on the Cumulative Volume Delta (CBD) Heatmap, has so far served as a buffer zone that helped Bitcoin’s prices bounce during the most recent geopolitical volatility. However, market volume indicates that this structural support may soon face additional pressure. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In? Bitcoin MVRV-Score Has The Answer According to the latest weekly report by Glassnode, investor profitability and engagement surrounding Bitcoin are cooling rapidly. Specifically, a third major wave of profit-taking is causing the 30-day realized profit average to taper, and on-chain activity has decreased significantly. The 7-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has dropped by about 32%, from a peak of $76 billion in late May to $52 billion over the recent weekend. Current spot volume trading, which is now at just $7.7 billion, is far below the volumes seen during previous rallies. The lack of strong buying enthusiasm on the spot market shows that bullish sentiment has been replaced by caution. As such, the risk of a breakdown below $99,000 grows unless another wave of demand re-enters. Futures Market Also Cooling Off The slowdown in sentiment is not limited to the spot market. Although Bitcoin is attracting interest on derivatives exchanges, there are clear signs that futures sentiment is waning. Open interest dropped by 7% over the weekend, from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC, and funding rates have been declining steadily since Bitcoin hit its Q1 2025 all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $110,000 ATH As These Macroeconomic Factors Align Futures market participants had been very active through Bitcoin’s climb to $111,800 in May, but their conviction appears to be fading now. A further indication of a growing reluctance to hold long positions is the sharp decline in both the annualized funding rate and the 3-month rolling basis. Without stronger directional conviction, the futures markets may not provide the upside needed to push Bitcoin to new highs. This situation may instead contribute to additional downward pressure. So far, Bitcoin has respected the $93,000 to $100,000 support zone, which was heavily accumulated during the Q1 2025 top formation. However, with low spot volumes, on-chain activity slowing, and fading futures sentiment, this support could become tested again. If market participants with a cost basis in this zone begin to sell, the resulting pressure could drag Bitcoin below $99,000 again next week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $107,100. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Mixed on-chain signals and highlight market uncertainty.
Over 72 percent of circulating BTC is now illiquid, suggesting reduced sell-side pressure and potential bullish momentum.
Geopolitical tensions spark weekend volatility but BTC bounces back maintaining critical on-chain support.
Since hitting a new all-time high almost a month ago, Bitcoin has done little to assure investors of intent to explore new price territories. Amid announcement of new US trade tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, the premier cryptocurrency has come under bearish influences to trade as low as 101,000. At press time, Bitcoin is hovering near $104,000 following a 2.03% % decline in the past day. However, popular analytics company Glassnode has highlighted a crucial price range worth monitoring especially in the advent of a further price decline. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Modest Gains, But Demand Weakness Limits Breakout Potential $95,500–$97,000: Bitcoin’s Line In The Sand In a recent X post, Glassnode shares an insight into the Bitcoin market based on data from Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap. The CBD is a common on-chain metric that tracks the price levels at which tokens were last purchased or sold. When a substantial amount of coins are traded within a specific price range, it forms a supply cluster capable of acting as a support or resistance level. According to Glassnode’s report, the Bitcoin’s CBD heatmap shows the first dense supply cluster below the current market price lies at $95,500 – $97,000 price zone. Interestingly, this range rests just below the short-term holders (STH) cost basis suggesting a confluence of technical and on-chain metric to present a high-stake battleground. Therefore, Glassnode analysts explain that holding the market price above this threshold reinforces bullish momentum and boosts Bitcoin chances of re-entering a price discovery mode. However, a breakdown below the $95,500 price level could trigger panic selling supporting bearish projections for the mid-term to short-term. Interestingly, prominent market analysts including anonymous X expert with username Mr. Wall Street has backed the latter scenario stating Bitcoin is due for a further price drops. Mr. Wall Street strictly warns Bitcoin would not hold above the $100,000 psychological support zone forecasting a price fall to around the $93,000 – $95,000 which Glassnode predicts should induce widescale market liquidations. Related Reading: BNB Price Breakout Could Trigger ATH Rally Repeat – Is $730 The Next Stop? Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,753 with a cumulative 1.27% decline in the past week. During this period, the flagship cryptocurrency remained largely under $106,000 barring a weak price breakout between June 16 and June 17. On a monthly scale, Bitcoin has now recorded a 6.10% loss, signaling a gradual shift in momentum with bearish forces regaining control of the market. Meanwhile, with a market cap of $2.05 trillion, the “digital gold” continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency with a reported market dominance of 64.3%. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Crypto education and media platform Coin Bureau has shared some puzzling developments on the XRP market that may hint at a prolonged bearish future. Notably, the altcoin has been a major headliner amidst a general crypto market correction in the past one month. During this period, XRP prices have dipped by over 10% with current market prices around $2.13. While crypto enthusiasts remain hopeful of market resurgence, Coin Bureau’s recent revelations shows that on-chain data suggests otherwise. Related Reading: Consolidation Takes Its Toll: Bitcoin Investors No Longer Greedy XRP $3 Target Impossible Amid Declining Network Activity – Analyst According to an X post by Coin Bureau on June 20, XRP is facing an uphill task in regaining its bullish form due to network engagement crises. Notably, data from Glassnode shows that new wallets on the XRP Ledger have crashed from above 30,000 new addresses daily in January to presently below 5,000 new addresses daily. Interestingly, the chart by Glassnode presents a strong correlation between price action and network growth. The surge in wallet creation during late Q4 2024 was accompanied by a parabolic move in price that brought XRP to trade as high as $2.71. However, as the rate of new users entering the network began to decline, XRP’s price action also entered a consolidation and gradual downward trend. Amidst other developments, Coin Bureau also highlights XRP’s daily active addresses has experienced a staggering drop from 557,000 to 34,000 to further suggest a lack of retail investor interest in the XRP ecosystem. According to the market analyst, the glaring fall in network engagement indicates XRP may lack sufficient market demand to support a bullish climb towards the $3 price region which is a crucial resistance zone. However, other analysts have presented an alternative theory. In particular, a market expert with X pseudonym MoonLambo explains the previous highs in network activity seen in Q4 2024 and January coincided with a period of widespread market greed following the US general elections. The analyst claims the decline is normal alongside social trends rather and is overemphasized by Coin Bureau. Related Reading: Dogecoin Breaks Free—Could Soar 60%, Analyst Says XRP Price Outlook At the time of writing, XRP continues to trade at $2.13 reflecting a 1.33% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is up by 22.29% and valued at $2.25 billion. According to data from prediction site CoinCodex, XRP Investors still remain largely bearish but the Fear & Greed Index stands neutral at 54. CoinCodex analysts are predicting XRP to remain in consolidation for the short term with predictions of $2.12 in one month. However, they forecast a steady long-term bullish revival with projections of $2.45 in three months and $3.03 in six months. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has continued to hover above the $100,000 mark over the past few days, and its price action has stabilized around $105,000 in the wake of recent market tensions and despite inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. A new analysis shared by crypto market commentator Gert van Lagen suggests that this current phase is going to precede an explosive move similar to those seen in previous market cycles. Backing his prediction with historical data and Glassnode’s AVIV Ratio chart, the analyst noted that the current on-chain structure echoes moments before Bitcoin’s major rallies in past bull markets. AVIV Ratio Flashes Familiar Pattern Before Market Top Bitcoin’s price volatility has slightly cooled since the initial surge to a new all-time high above $111,800 in May, and the latest candlestick structure suggests it may be preparing for another leg higher. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Bounce To $120,000 Or Will It Break Below $100,000? Taking to the social media platform X, Gert van Lagen revealed a Bitcoin price prediction that centers around the true market Deviation metric known as the AVIV Ratio. This orange-colored line on the chart tracks a specific deviation in Bitcoin’s market behavior and has always crossed a red line denoting +3 standard deviations at or just before cycle tops. The current AVIV behavior can be compared to previous price points before market tops in previous cycles. For instance, in 2013, the AVIV Ratio flagged a major rally when Bitcoin was trading near $200, shortly before the price pushed past $1,200. In 2017, the metric behaved similarly when Bitcoin was trading at $3,700 and later peaked near $20,000. The current AVIV Ratio can also be compared to when Bitcoin was priced at $13,000 in the 2021 bull market run, before its surge to an all-time high of $69,000. According to the analyst, today’s AVIV ratio level is closely aligned with those previous mid-cycle breakouts. The current ratio has not yet crossed the red +3σ line, which the analyst refers to as the cycle top trigger. As such, its current reading suggests Bitcoin may be in the early phase of a major bull market expansion. If history repeats itself, a 3x move from today’s levels would be a standard price move in line with previous price action. $300,000 Target Within Sight If AVIV Behavior Holds Crypto analyst van Lagen stops short of calling for an immediate top, but his analysis implies that Bitcoin could be preparing for a new parabolic surge to the upside. Using the AVIV model as a reference, a conservative 3x multiplier on the current Bitcoin price places a possible target around $300,000. Related Reading: Key Fractal From 2023 Says Bitcoin Price Is Still Bullish, But A Crash To $90,000 Could Be Coming At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,997, having decreased by 1.4% in the past 24 hours. This decline has brought its price down from an intraday high of $106,795 back into its consolidation range around $105,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin market continues to react negatively to rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran which has induced a wave of concern in the financial markets. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has entered a consolidation movement between $105,000 – $106,000 following slight, after prices crashed to below $103,000 on Friday. Meanwhile, prominent analytics company Glassnode has shared some valuable insight into the Bitcoin market dissecting the growth of the current bull cycle so far. Bitcoin Demand Matches Maturation Rate In an X post on June 14, Glassnode draws comparisons of Bitcoin price growth in the present market cycle to previous ones. Related Reading: $57 Million In Crypto And Counting: Trump’s World Liberty Connection Notably, the crypto market cycle is a recurring four-year period marked by consecutive phases of accumulation, a bull market, distribution and a bear market. In the last two cycles i.e 2015-2018 and 2018-2022, Bitcoin achieved price gains of 1076% and 1007%, respectively, significantly multiplying its market cap. For the current cycle from 2022 till date, Bitcoin’s prices have now grown by 656%. While this figure is far off previous cycles, Glassnode reports that it’s a commendable achievement considering the premier cryptocurrency’s maturation in the past four years marked by an exposure to institutional investors and a $2 trillion valuation. Generally, assets are expected to produce little exponential growth with continued price growth. This can be seen with gold only achieving an estimated 192% growth over the past 10 years. Therefore, Glassnode notes that Bitcoin’s 6x market gain since 2022 is highly positive development that reflects a sustainable market demand even as the asset’s market cap grows. Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $105,540 following a slight 0.20% gain in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down by 35.39% representing significant fall in market participation. Interestingly, reputable analytics firm Sentora reports the Bitcoin network weekly fees fell by 3.31% following recent negative political events coupled with an already uncertain market sentiment. Meanwhile, exchange inflows also grew by $2.4 billion indicating a significant amount of investors are looking to distribute their holdings while the premier cryptocurrency struggles to re-establish a bullish price direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $1 Million? Michael Saylor Laughs Off Crypto Winter Fears Notably, since establishing a new all-time high at $111, 891 on May 22, the maiden cryptocurrency has experienced a significant price correction with prices dipping as low as below $101,000 amidst a host of negative micro-economic events. However, the prevailing sentiment among Bitcoin investors remains bullish according to Coincodex data with the Fear & Greed index at 63 to reflect a solid level of Greed. Featured image from Getty, chart from TradingView
As the bitcoin counts of long-term holders has increased, that of short-term holders has fallen.
Bitcoin prices have returned above $105,000 in the past 24 hours following a sharp price decline on Thursday triggered by macroeconomic pressures. Notably, US President Donald Trump and former political ally Elon Musk had engaged in a public spat which spiked the volatility in a crypto market already undergoing a corrective phase. Amidst some level of renewed stability in the last two days, popular analytics firm Glassnode has now shared an important on-chain analysis highlighting the presently key price levels in the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Bounce To $120,000 Or Will It Break Below $100,000? Bitcoin Ready For Breakout As Traders Eye $114K And $83K Levels In an X post on June 7, Glassnode provides an insight on potential Bitcoin price action using the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis model, derived from the Work of Cost (WOC) price framework. As the name implies, the STH cost basis represents the average purchased price of all coins belonging to short-term holders i.e. investors who acquired their Bitcoin within the last 155 days. The STH cost basis is an important market metric as it reflects the risk appetite of newer market participants who are typically the most reactive to price change. It is also a strong indicator of market sentiment with an ability to act as resistance or support depending on the price direction. According to the data by Glassnode, the current Bitcoin STH cost basis is estimated at $97,100. Using standard deviation bands in this WOC model, Glassnode has further identified the $114,800 price level as the +1STD level of this cost basis and a potentially heated market zone. Considering Bitcoin’s price, this $114,800 price zone represents the next major resistance, a break above which is expected to trigger a massive buying pressure and push the premier cryptocurrency further into uncharted price territory. Glassnode’s WOC model also identifies the -1STD level at $83,200 to represent a critical support zone in the present bullish structure. A decisive price fall below this level would signal market weakness and is likely to cause a cascade of liquidations and further price corrections. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says This Bitcoin Top Signal Hasn’t Gone Off Yet — What To Know Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $105,745 reflecting a 1.07% gain in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down by 34.27% and valued at $38.66 billion. Provided Bitcoin continues to consolidate above the STH cost basis at $97,100, there is a valid chance for a market bullish push towards resistance at $114,800. However, a loss of the critical support at $97,100 would points to a retest at $83,200 which holds strong potential bearish consequences. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how Bitcoin investor behavior tends to reflect in price trend reversals and continuations. Glassnode Highlights Key Behavioral Patterns Behind Bitcoin Moves In a new thread on X, Glassnode has shared a new way to categorize Bitcoin investors based on their on-chain spending patterns. Under this indicator, called the Supply by Investor Behavior, there are five cohorts: Conviction Buyers, First Buyers, Momentum Buyers, Loss Sellers, and Profit Takers. First Buyers, Loss Sellers, and Profit Takers are pretty self-explanatory. Conviction Buyers refer to the investors who buy despite a decline in the cryptocurrency’s price, while Momentum Buyers refer to those who buy during uptrends. Related Reading: Bitcoin SLRV Ribbons Turn Green—What Happens Next? “The metric tracks the cumulative token supply held by each cohort over time,” notes the analytics firm in the chart’s description on its website. “To focus solely on investor behavior, we exclude exchanges and smart contracts.” Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the indicator over Bitcoin’s history: To showcase how the behavior of these groups has an effect on the asset’s trajectory, the analytics firm has zoomed in on the data of two cohorts: Conviction Buyers and First Buyers. First, here is the chart specifically for the Bitcoin Conviction Buyers: From the graph, it’s visible that the BTC supply held by the Conviction Buyers generally observes a spike alongside inflection points in the cryptocurrency’s price. In particular, their supply tends to reach a peak coinciding with bear market lows. These investors also step in to buy dips during uptrends, helping stabilize pullbacks. “But conviction alone isn’t enough to spark a rally – that’s where First Buyers come in,” explains Glassnode. Below is a chart that highlights the role of the First Buyers. As displayed in the chart, demand from First Buyers went up alongside Bitcoin’s recovery out of the bear market, with a particularly sharp surge coinciding with the bull rally in Q1 2024. Related Reading: XRP Sees Wave Of Inflows: 70% Of Realized Cap Now New Money The supply of the First Buyers let off during the consolidation phase that followed this rally, but demand returned in the second half of the year, helping fuel the run beyond $100,000. The Bitcoin market downturn this year again accompanied a decline in the supply of the First Buyers, this time to a much stronger degree than last year’s drawdown. New capital inflows seem to have made a sharp return once more, however, as the metric’s value has switched to rapid growth, potentially explaining the rally to the new all-time high. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,800, up over 4% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode data shows all wallet cohorts are now accumulating, with options markets pricing in potential upside beyond $200K in June.
As Bitcoin Pizza Day turns 15 years old, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how coins from back then are still being moved. Bitcoin Realized Cap Data Shows Recent Movements From 10+ Years BTC Bitcoin has managed to achieve a new all-time high (ATH), but it’s not the only thing cryptocurrency community members are celebrating today. Back on May 22nd, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz exchanged 10,000 BTC for two pizzas, in what was perhaps the first example of the asset being used as a mode of payment in a real-world purchase. Given the significance of this event, the date has come to be celebrated as “Bitcoin Pizza Day.” Related Reading: Dogecoin Breaks Out Of Bull Pennant—What’s The Target? The pizzas that Laszlo purchased were worth around $40. Fifteen years on, the same amount of BTC translates to a whopping $1.1 billion. Here’s a chart shared by the analytics firm CryptoQuant that shows how this figure has looked on every Bitcoin Pizza Day in history: Naturally, no one could have possibly foreseen just how big Bitcoin would eventually become. But even if they did, transactions like these were probably necessary in bringing the asset to where it’s at today. As CryptoQuant says, “It’s a high price, but it’s the price that was paid to turn Bitcoin into a means of payment.” That said, while many like Laszlo would have actively spent their BTC, some holders didn’t. Whether that’s by accident or a product of willful HODLing is impossible to say for sure, but a chunk of the supply is now aged more than ten years old, meaning the owners of those coins haven’t involved them in a single transaction since then. The analytics firm Glassnode has shared the data for the Realized Cap share of this specific part of the Bitcoin circulating supply. Looks like the value of the metric has seen a notable decline recently | Source: Glassnode on X The Realized Cap basically tells us about the total amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole have used to purchase their coins. In the chart, the percentage of this metric occupied by the supply aged more than ten years is displayed. Last year, this value hit a peak at 0.045%. Today, the indicator has come to just 0.033%, following steep drawdowns between December and February, and another since April 20th. Based on the trend, Glassnode notes, “15 years after Laszlo bought pizza for 10,000 $BTC – now worth over $1.1B – some of that era’s coins are still moving.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Sets New ATH, But This Metric Says No Overheating Yet Coins that are this old are more likely to have reached that age by being lost than through HODLing conviction, so it’s possible that the old Bitcoin being moved now was just recently rediscovered, either by the original investor or someone else who happened to come across the forgotten wallet keys. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $111,400, up over 7% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the Bitcoin investor Cost Basis Distribution could highlight this level as an important one. A Notable Amount Of Bitcoin Has Cost Basis At $106,600 In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution for the levels nearby to the current spot price. The “Cost Basis Distribution” (CBD) here refers to an on-chain indicator that tells us about how much of the asset’s supply was purchased at what price levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $103,000 Relatively Cool Per This Indicator, Quant Says Below is the CBD chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the data related to price levels above $101,500. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin price levels near to the all-time high (ATH) aren’t too dense with supply, meaning that not a lot of buying took place there and many investors who did buy there already capitulated. A level that immediately stands out, however, is $106,600, where holders last purchased around 31,000 BTC. According to Glassnode, this particular supply cluster originated on the 16th of December. The owners of these tokens have held tight through all the volatility that has emerged since then. Generally, large supply walls that are situated at levels higher than the spot price can act as probable points of resistance in the near future, as underwater investors can be desperate for the asset to return to their break-even level so that they can just exit with all their capital back. From the chart, it’s apparent that Bitcoin’s sharp burst of bullish momentum earlier had its price close in on this level and it did find a rejection around there. The source of the resistance wasn’t selling from the underwater holders who purchased at $106,600, however, as the supply cluster is still holding strong. It would appear that the owners of these tokens may be quite the resolute hands, as they are still waiting patiently even though the cryptocurrency is offering them an opportunity to sell. The analytics firm has noted that this could make the level an important one to watch in the short term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Up $18,000, But HODLer Profits Same As On April 1—Here’s Why In some other news, cycle analyst Root has shared in an X post how the institutional Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings have changed this year. As displayed in the above chart, the institutional ETF holdings fell during the first quarter of the year. “Institutional Bitcoin holdings dropped 10% in Q1 2025, the impact of de-risking during tariff and trade war uncertainty,” notes the analyst. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $105,200, up almost 3% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Following the return above $100,000 in the previous week, Bitcoin has fought well to maintain its hold above the six-figure mark in recent days. While the flagship cryptocurrency retains its six-figure valuation, there’s still some momentum lacking in its price action, as spotlighted by last week’s performance. According to recent analysis, the sluggishness and apparent indecision in the BTC market can be attributed to significant selling pressure in the derivatives market. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price still has room for additional growth. Options Market Data Shows Shift In Trader Sentiment In a May 16 post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared fresh on-chain insights suggesting a rise in bullish sentiment amongst Bitcoin options traders. The relevant indicator here is the 1-month 25 Delta Skew, which compares the implied volatility of bullish bets (call options) to the bearish bets (put options). Related Reading: Bitcoin Next Leg Up Loading? Analyst Says BTC Could Trade Sideways For Two Weeks When the 1-month 25 Delta Skew is in the positive territory, it implies that puts have higher implied volatility than calls. This trend is often associated with a bullish sentiment where traders are more worried about the asset price falling and are thus paying a premium for downside protection. On the other hand, a negative value for the 1-month 25 Delta Skew indicator signals that calls are more expensive than puts. This suggests that traders are more willing to bet on the price of Bitcoin moving higher than for protection against downside exposure. According to data from Glassnode, the 1-month 25 Delta Skew metric recently witnessed a drop to around -6.1%. This decline, the analytics platform noted, signifies that call options now carry higher implied volatility compared to put options. This options market trend means that there is now rising bullish sentiment amongst Bitcoin traders, as they lean more into betting on the BTC price rising. Glassnode also pointed out that this increasing bullish sentiment reflects a risk-on environment, where traders and investors are more willing to risk their funds. Historically, a negative 25 Delta Skew is a strong bullish sentiment indicator, as it usually precedes further appreciation of the Bitcoin price. Moreover, current options data not only supports BTC’s upward movement, but could also serve as a positive catalyst for more growth as additional long positions enter the market. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $102,800, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: JPMorgan Claims Bitcoin Has More Upside Potential Than Gold For Q2—Here’s The Breakdown Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
In the event of a crypto market correction, Glassnode said Bitcoin could find support between $93,000 and $95,000 due to accumulation within that zone.
Crypto analyst Crypto Michael, who called the XRP price surge when it was trading at $0.5, has predicted the altcoin’s next move. Based on his prediction, XRP is set to sustain its current bullish momentum and possibly rally to a new all-time high (ATH) soon with a breakout above $3. Analyst Predicts XRP Price Surge Above $3 In an X post, Michael predicted a second parabolic rally once the XRP price breaks the psychological $3. The analyst made this prediction while revealing that he had called this current XRP rally while the altcoin was still trading at $0.5. Indeed, last year, he stated that a historic breakout was incoming for the altcoin. Related Reading: XRP Price Outperforms Bitcoin, Ethereum As ‘Strange Signal’ Emerges, Why The Target Is $4 Back then, he highlighted a unique 7-year-long bull pennant that had formed for the XRP price. Based on that bullish pattern, the analyst remarked that market participants might be about to witness one of the most significant breakouts in crypto history. XRP eventually broke out and became the second-best-performing asset among the top 10 cryptos by market cap in 2024. Crypto analyst CasiTrade recently stated that the XRP price could witness an explosive move above $3 if it breaks and holds above $2.69. This means the projected parabolic rally for XRP above the $3 mark could happen soon. This rally could send the altcoin above its current ATH of around $3.84. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also suggested that the XRP price will unlikely encounter any major resistance as it targets a run to a new ATH. In an X post, he cited Glassnode data as he revealed that XRP has no major resistance clusters ahead. Meanwhile, the analyst noted that the key support zone is $2.38. A Rally To Double Digits In This Cycle? Several crypto analysts have predicted that the XRP price can rally to double digits in this market cycle. In an X post, Pepa stated that the plan stays the same for XRP. His accompanying chart showed that he expects the altcoin to rally to as high as $30 by year-end or the start of next year. Related Reading: XRP Price To Rally To $6: Partially Completed Wave 5 Says There’s Still Room To Run Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto also recently alluded to a previous analysis in which he predicted that the XRP price would reach $28 by year-end 2025. This move is expected to mark Wave 5 on his Elliott Wave Theory analysis. Similarly, analyst Egrag Crypto stated that XRP will reach between $27 and $33 in this cycle. Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto offered a more conservative target, predicting that the altcoin will reach between $4 and $6 in this cycle. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.52, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Market sentiment around the XRP price is flipping bullish as technical indicators and recent chart movements suggest a promising upward trajectory over the next three months. With momentum building, a crypto analyst is now eyeing a potential rally that could push XRP as high as $36. According to a new prediction posted by crypto analyst Dark Defender on X (formerly Twitter), the XRP price is gearing up for a potentially explosive surge to $36. XRP Price Forecasted To Reach $36 The chart analysis shows that XRP has broken through a crucial three-month resistance trendline that has capped its price action since its 2018 peak. This breakout signals a powerful shift in market structure, indicating that the long-standing bearish trend may be over. Related Reading: XRP Price Repeating History? 2017-Like Rally To Send Price To $10 Dark Defender’s three-month candlestick chart applies the Elliott Wave Theory, mapping out a five-wave bullish structure. The analysis shows that Waves 1 and 2 have already played out, and XRP now appears to be entering Wave 3, which is typically seen as the strongest and longest wave. If this Wave 3 pattern holds, XRP could be on the verge of its most powerful rally yet. According to Dark Defender, the upside target could reach as high as $36.76, representing a staggering 423.6% increase. Before XRP reaches this projected price level, Dark Defender has forecasted short—to long-term bullish targets for the cryptocurrency. In the short term, XRP could reach $3.33, with a mid-term goal of $5.85. Additional milestones along the way include key percentage gain levels that may act as interim resistance zones. A 161.8% gain points to a potential price of around $13.81, while a 261.8% surge suggests a move toward $18.96. If momentum continues, the token could push further to $26.87, aligning with a 361.8% increase. On the downside, support levels at $2.3620 and $2.222 are expected to act as strongholds in case of any retracement before continuation. Moving forward, Dark Defender has doubled down on his bullish stance on XRP’s future outlook, referencing a tweet dated March 17 that boldly declared, “XRP is extremely bullish.” Clear Path Ahead For The Altcoin As Resistance Thins Out In an X post released on May 13, Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto analyst, disclosed that on-chain data from Glassnode shows a clear bullish path for XRP, with no signs of major resistance clusters ahead. The analysis based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates that a significant portion of XRP tokens were last moved at lower price levels. Related Reading: XRP Price Macro Channel Breakout That Puts Targets At $17-$55 The chart also highlights a significant support zone at $2.38, where nearly 1.85 billion XRP, amounting to 2.92% of its supply, were last transacted. This concentration of holders could serve as a psychological and technical support level if the market pulls back. Moreover, the absence of large token holdings at higher price ranges suggests that the price could experience a smoother ascent, unburdened by major resistance from profit-takers. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain data reveals rising confidence among both long- and short-term holders, with $99.9K flagged as a potential profit-taking zone.
Bitcoin bulls may run into significant selling pressure at around $99,900, on-chain data show.
Bitcoin’s price action has broken above $96,000 in the past 24 hours, strengthening the case for a sustained move into six-figure territory. This recent price action is particularly significant as it marks a clean breakout above a key on-chain resistance zone stretching from $93,000 to $95,000, which many analysts believe could determine whether Bitcoin’s next leg takes it into six-figure territory. Supporting this momentum is a long-term technical outlook by renowned trader Peter Brandt, who projected that Bitcoin remains on course to set new all-time highs, with a potential price peak exceeding $150,000 on his projected timeline. Peter Brandt Maps Timeline For $150,000 Bitcoin Top With Parabolic Structure Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared a weekly candlestick Bitcoin price chart on social media, highlighting a path toward $150,000 by late summer 2025. According to Brandt’s post on social media platform X, Bitcoin is currently trading below a parabolic trendline that is key to the final leg of the current bull cycle. Interestingly, this parabolic trendline has served as an upper resistance for Bitcoin’s price peaks and all-time highs since 2021. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Last Leg-Up That Confirms A Resounding Rally To $150,000 Brandt’s chart captures a variety of classical technical formations, including multiple head and shoulders patterns, expanding triangles, and consolidation wedges. The breakout from the recent wedge pattern serves as his basis for suggesting that the bull market is structurally intact. According to his projection, the parabolic slope that Bitcoin needs to overcome currently sits around the $120,000 mark. A decisive breakout above this threshold would set the stage for a run-up to a cycle top. Brand noted that this cycle top would be between $125,000 and $150,000, and the timeline is by August or September 2025. On-Chain Indicators Reveal Pressure Points Around $93,000 To $95,000 On-chain data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Bitcoin is currently testing the convergence of two critical resistance points: the 111-day simple moving average, which now sits at $91,300, and the short-term holder cost basis, which sits at $93,200. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price: Analyst Peter Brandt Says BTC Still Bearish Unless This Happens Notably, Bitcoin’s price structure has confirmed a higher high relative to a high of $94,000 in early May, effectively breaking the downtrend from early April. This suggests that the market may be shifting into a more aggressive accumulation phase. However, this region also represents a significant cluster of previously bought coins, meaning investors underwater during earlier pullbacks now find themselves near break-even. This could cause increased sell-side pressure if some traders take profit or exit at breakeven. Meanwhile, long-term holders continue to exhibit strong HOLDling behavior, with realized profits exceeding 350% for many. In fact, over 254,000 BTC have crossed the 155-day threshold since Bitcoin’s recent local bottom, indicating that a significant portion of the supply is maturing into long-term holdings. Many of these coins were acquired at prices above $95,000. Although current momentum clearly favours the bulls, the $93,000 to $95,000 range is a major battleground that could define Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead of reaching Peter Brandt’s target of $150,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,635. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com