RHODL ratio suggests market conditions resemble cycle corrections rather than late-stage tops, as long-term holders regain dominance.
Despite a surge in short positioning, bitcoin has climbed toward $75,000, with past episodes of negative funding rates often aligning with local market bottoms.
Bitcoin has climbed back toward a key on-chain resistance zone, but Glassnode says the move still looks more like a fragile rebound than the start of a fully convincing trend shift. In its latest The Week On-chain report, the analytics firm said Bitcoin was trading near $74,000, roughly 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78,100, a level it framed as the market’s most important near-term test. Glassnode’s central argument is that the market has improved enough to keep the rally alive, but not enough to remove the structural risks overhead. Spot demand has recovered, ETF flows have turned positive again, and institutional exposure is beginning to rebuild. Even so, profit-taking is rising, derivatives positioning remains cautious, and participation is still uneven across venues and investor groups. Glassnode Flags A Fragile Bitcoin Rally Near Major Resistance The report said Bitcoin “has gradually trended higher, now trading near $74k, approximately 5.2% below the True Market Mean, tracing the cost basis of active supply.” It added that while price has not yet broken above that threshold and held it, “the probability of a spike toward and potentially above it remains considerable in the mid-term.” That leaves the market in an awkward position: close enough to resistance for traders to focus on a breakout, but not yet strong enough to suggest the ceiling has truly given way. One of the main reasons Glassnode stops short of endorsing the move outright is the behavior of short-term holders. The firm highlighted the share of short-term holder supply in profit, which measures how much recently acquired supply is sitting on unrealized gains. Historically, local tops in bear market rallies have often formed as that figure approaches its statistical mean of around 54.2%. It currently stands at 43.2%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Alert: German State Could Take Control of Another 57,000 BTC That, according to the report, means the rally may still have some room to run before it reaches a more typical exhaustion zone. But it is also a reminder that Bitcoin is moving into an area where distribution pressure tends to build, especially if newer market participants start using strength to de-risk. Glassnode sees that process already underway in broader realized profit-taking metrics. The 30-day EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio now sits at 1.16, a reading above 1 that signals realized profits are outpacing realized losses. In the firm’s words, “the current reading of 1.16 confirms that investors are broadly seizing the present rally as an opportunity to exit positions at breakeven or capture thin profit margins. While this is not an immediate reversal signal, a sharp spike in this ratio during a bear market rally has historically been a cautionary indicator of distribution rather than genuine demand recovery.” That distinction runs through the entire report. The rebound is real, Glassnode suggests, but the character of the move still matters. For the rally to evolve into something more durable, the market would need to absorb selling pressure and establish support above $78,100, not merely trade up to it. Off-chain data tells a similar story. Spot cumulative volume delta has improved sharply since February’s capitulation, but the demand profile remains selective. Binance-led buying has outpaced Coinbase, suggesting stronger participation from offshore and retail-driven segments than from the institutional cohort often associated with Coinbase flows. Glassnode called that divergence notable, arguing that sustained rallies typically need broader engagement from both sides of the market. Institutional proxies have also improved, albeit cautiously. CME futures open interest has started rebuilding from local lows, and US spot ETF assets under management have turned higher after a stretch of outflows. Still, neither series has returned to previous highs, which Glassnode said points to “a more cautious re-engagement, rather than a full risk-on shift.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says In derivatives, the firm found little evidence of strong directional conviction. Funding rates remain broadly balanced, implied volatility has compressed across the curve, and 25-delta skew continues to favor puts over calls, even if the tilt has softened from more defensive extremes. In plain terms, traders have reduced some of their stress hedging, but they have not rotated aggressively into upside exposure either. Hyperliquid liquidation data reinforces that picture of a reactive market. Dense long liquidations sit between $63,000 and $65,000, while short liquidation clusters are concentrated around $74,000 to $76,000. Recent price action has repeatedly interacted with those zones, suggesting flows and liquidation mechanics are still shaping the range more than strong underlying conviction. Glassnode also flagged dealer positioning as a key near-term market structure factor. A large pocket of negative gamma between $74,000 and $76,000 could amplify moves if spot continues higher, turning what might look like resistance into an area where hedging flows accelerate price. Even so, the report stops well short of declaring a breakout regime. The result is a market that looks healthier than it did during the February washout, but still far from settled. Bitcoin bulls may have a clear target in $78,000, yet Glassnode’s message is that reclaiming it will require more than momentum alone. It will take sustained inflows, deeper institutional participation, and enough real demand to absorb the profit-taking now building into strength. At press time, BTC traded at $74,905. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Slower post-halving gains reflect bitcoin’s shift toward a more mature asset.
The Bitcoin price surged past $73,000 in the past week, indicating an improved investor risk appetite despite the overwhelming sentiment. This recent rally has been attributed to several factors, but most notably the announcement of a temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict. With the rise in the spot market, other pricing models are emerging with key implications for future market movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surges To $72,000, But Remains Stuck In Key Supply Zone Bitcoin Maintains Key Support At $54K – Details Prominent analytics firm Glassnode shared an update on the important on-chain price models following the latest market rally. Notably, these models track the average acquisition costs of different cohorts, providing a framework for identifying support, resistance, and overall market health. As Bitcoin’s spot price rose to $71,800, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis was valued at $81,300, representing the average purchase price of recent market entrants over the last 155 days. Historically, this level has served as a key sentiment gauge, as short-term holders are the most reactive investor cohort. With prices below this level, short-term investors are largely underwater and are likely to increase sell pressure on potential rebounds, thus forming a key market resistance level. Similarly, the Active Investors Mean, positioned at $85,000, remains significantly above the current spot price. This metric reflects the average cost basis of economically active market participants and often serves as a proxy for broader market confidence. With Bitcoin still significantly away from this level, the majority of active capital is holding at a loss, resulting in heavy market caution. Another critical price metric highlighted by Glassnode is the True Market Mean at $78,000, which represents a more refined estimate of the market’s fair value by adjusting for lost coins and inactive supply. Trading below this level indicates that Bitcoin remains in a discount zone relative to its adjusted economic baseline. However, the Realized Price, currently at $54,200, continues to provide strong structural support on the macro scale. This level reflects the average on-chain acquisition price of all circulating Bitcoin and typically represents the market capitulation threshold. With spot price holding well above this threshold, the long-term bullish structure remains intact despite the recent prolonged correction. Related Reading: Capital Is Rotating From Bitcoin To Ethereum – On-Chain Data Shows It Is Not Over Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $72,700, up 10% over the last week. According to Glassnode’s analysis, the next critical resistance level lies around $78,000, breaking past which could signal a solid bullish recovery. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview
A ton of BTC was recently traded below $70,000 in a sign of strong dip demand.
Bitcoin remains stuck below $70K as weak conviction and macro uncertainty weigh on markets, with analysts flagging a potential short squeeze.
Glassnode data shows distribution across cohorts as BTC falls below $67,000, with whales remaining largely neutral.
The Bitcoin market remains subject to high uncertainty, with bearish sentiments at heightened levels. In the last week, the premier cryptocurrency attempted another failed breakout as prices faced stiff resistance at the $75,000 level. With Bitcoin now back to around $70,000, Glassnode data on the options market shows that traders are pushing for more downside protection alongside expectations of low market volatility. Related Reading: Pundit Shares Everything To Understand About Bitcoin, ‘This Cycle IS Different’ Bitcoin Open Interest Hits New ATH – What Does It Mean? In an X post on March 20, Glassnode provides an update on the Bitcoin options market covering developments on positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiments. In terms of positioning, the analytics platform reported that Bitcoin options Open Interest (OI) reached a new all-time high value ahead of the expected expiry order on Friday. While a rise in OI typically represents an increase in market participation, Glassnode analysts explain that this recent positioning spike may still be indicative of short-term hedging flows. However, the after-effects of quarterly expiry on March 27 would provide more clarity on the recent positioning spike and the long-term sentiment. Meanwhile, the 1-week Implied Volatility (IV) declined from 70% to 53%, while options with longer maturities are also down by ~10 vols. This indicates that options are anticipating less dramatic price swings, despite the unstable macro environment. Related Reading: Binance Leads XRP Whale Exodus As 530M Tokens Exit In Single-Day Surge Bitcoin Put Options In Demand As Traders Hedge Against Price Fall According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin Options Skew, which measures the demand difference between put options (bearish protection) and call options (bullish bets), has stabilized. However, Bitcoin’s rejection at $75,000 has pushed the 25 Delta Skew into the 15-20% range, indicating increased put option demand. This development suggests a rise in market caution as options traders are paying a premium to protect against any potential downside. This creeping market fear is further confirmed by the 24-hour taker flow chart, which shows that options traders’ positioning has now turned defensive. Puts Bought activity is dominating the flows chart with a 30.7% share, while Calls Bought accounts for around 20.9%. Meanwhile, the Put/Call Ratio had also indicated a potential rejection at $75,000. Put actions dominated flows activity above $72,000, indicating that traders lacked belief in the breakout. Following the pullback, traders attempted to buy the dip with a spike in call options, but it was short-lived. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $70,668 following a minor 0.33% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 17.30% and is now valued at $36.67 billion. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
Crypto analyst Merlijn revealed that Bitcoin has flashed the most powerful fractal in the markets right now. This comes amid BTC’s rally to a one-month high of $75,000 despite the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Bitcoin Flashes Most Powerful Fractal In Markets Right Now In an X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has formed the most powerful fractal in the market right now. He noted that gold had formed this structure in 1974, when it completed three waves, followed by a Fibonacci extension and a parabolic move. Now, BTC is forming an identical structure, with the third step forming. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bulls Have Won And This Is The Next Target The analyst further said that $62,000 is the last line before the Fibonacci extension opens, and that if BTC holds this level, then the $226,000 Fibonacci target unlocks. However, if the leading crypto loses this level, then the fractal gets one more low first. Merlijn added that BTC is pointing to the same outcome as gold, with a parabolic move on the horizon. In another X post, the analyst provided a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, citing global liquidity. He noted that M2 is expanding again and that BTC has just entered the green accumulation zone. Merlijn explained that the last two times this combination appeared, BTC multiplied. He added that a hold above $74,000 will confirm this liquidity cycle, while a drop below $65,000 means one more compression before a rally to the upside. Bitcoin rallied to $75,000 yesterday, signaling that the leading crypto was again seeing bullish momentum despite the U.S.-Iran conflict. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that BTC could rally above $80,000 in the short term. Market Conditions Show Signs Of Stabilization And Market Recovery In a research report, the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode said that market conditions are showing signs of stabilization and gradual recovery. The spot CVD is said to have flipped decisively positive, which Glassnode noted reflects a return of aggressive buying pressure. Furthermore, the derivatives markets reflect rising but cautious engagement. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Base Case: What To Expect Before The Run-Up Above $100,000 Glassnode stated that futures open interest has edged higher as futures CVD surged, while funding payments moved further into negative territory, which points to persistent short positioning. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETFs are seeing renewed interest, although the on-chain analytics platform noted the total ETF trading volume has cooled slightly from prior elevated levels. Lastly, Glassnode mentioned that on-chain activity remains relatively muted, with active addresses declining below their lower band and transfer volumes improving modestly but remaining subdued. Fee volume is said to have remained stable, which reflects steady but quiet network usage. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $74,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how a flip in Bitcoin short-term holder profitability could act as a precondition for a sustained price recovery. Bitcoin STH Supply In Profit Is Currently Under 50% In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Supply in Profit metric for the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs). The Supply in Profit measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the BTC supply that’s currently being held at some net unrealized gain. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Mirror Late-2022 Levels Seen Before 67% Rally: Santiment In the context of the current topic, only the above-water supply held by the BTC STHs is of relevance. This cohort includes all addresses that purchased their tokens within the past 155 days. The STHs make up one of the two main divisions of the market, based on holding time, with the other side being known as the long-term holders (LTHs). Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell them in the future. As such, the STHs with their relatively low holding time are considered to represent the weak-minded side of the market, while the LTHs include the diamond hands. As the chart below for the Supply in Profit of the STHs shows, the new entrants to the market were enjoying a high degree of profitability before Bitcoin experienced a bearish shift in Q4 2025: The price decline has caused the indicator’s value to plummet, meaning a chunk of the tokens held by the Bitcoin STHs have gone underwater. From the graph, it’s apparent that the indicator dropped below the 50% mark a while ago and has continued to be in this low profitability zone since. In the past, this cohort being under stress has generally meant a lack of demand in the market. “Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%,” noted Glassnode. In the chart, a few examples of the STH Supply in Profit flipping back above 50% are visible, with the latest one being the price rebound from the first half of 2025. Back then, a return of profits for the cohort led to a Bitcoin rally that set new price all-time highs (ATHs). Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone Given this trend, it’s possible that a flip in the metric above the 50% level could once again be of significance for the cryptocurrency. “Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery,” explained the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making a fresh attempt at the $72,000 level following its surge of 3% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score drops to 0.04 as smaller wallet cohorts offload BTC while macro headwinds intensify.
Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of stabilization after its pullback from $74,000, but Glassnode says the recovery still lacks the ingredients of a decisive bullish turn. In its March 9 Weekly Market Pulse, the analytics firm described a market that is improving at the margins even as spot participation, capital flows and broader conviction remain subdued. Glassnode’s overview is cautiously constructive, but only up to a point. The firm wrote, “ETF activity remains a relative area of strength. Net inflows accelerated and trading volumes picked up.” In the same breath, though, it stressed that “overall, conditions are stabilizing” while “capital flows remain soft,” a framing that captures the report’s central tension: some internals are healing, but the market still looks fragile rather than fully re-energized. Glassnode Sees Bitcoin Market Stabilizing That fragility is most visible in spot markets. Glassnode said the 14-day RSI rose from 45.2 to 47.7, a modest improvement in momentum that points to firmer buyer activity without suggesting the move is overheated. But the more important spot signals moved the other way. Spot CVD fell from negative $84.4 million to negative $97.6 million, indicating heavier sell-side pressure from aggressive traders, while spot volume dropped from $9.8 billion to $9.1 billion. The report said participants are showing less urgency as they wait for stronger directional cues, leaving sellers with an outsized role in price discovery. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory Derivatives paint a more complicated picture. Futures open interest climbed 5.1% to $29.4 billion, showing leverage and speculative engagement are rebuilding, while perpetual CVD surged 201.7% to $172.6 million, a sign of aggressive buy-side activity in leveraged markets. At the same time, funding flipped sharply lower to negative $391.7K, falling below Glassnode’s statistical low band and signaling stronger demand for short exposure. In other words, leveraged traders are active again, but they are not aligned on direction. Options markets, by contrast, looked less defensive. Open interest rose from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, the volatility spread narrowed from negative 25.78% to negative 17.64%, and 25-delta skew fell from 16.51% to 11.72%. Glassnode’s interpretation was that fear is moderating and demand for downside protection is easing, leaving options positioning more balanced than it was a week earlier. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall To 2019 Levels As ETFs And Corporate Treasuries Accumulate The clearest area of strength remains the US spot ETF complex. Weekly net inflows rose from $776 million to $934 million, while trading volume jumped from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion. But even there, the signal is not cleanly bullish. ETF MVRV dropped from 1.07 to negative 0.53, pushing the average ETF holder underwater. Glassnode said that shift is “consistent with capitulation-like conditions,” suggesting institutional-style demand is still coming in even as existing positioning remains under stress. On-chain data tells a similar story of stabilization without renewed heat. Active addresses slipped 2.0% to 649.3K and fee volume fell 5.1% to $170.5K, both signs of a quieter network backdrop, even as transfer volume rose 23.7% to $5.9 billion. Realized cap change improved from negative 2.4% to negative 1.9%, suggesting outflows are easing, but hot capital share fell to 23.3% and remained well below the statistical low band. That points to a market still dominated by older capital, with little evidence yet of fresh speculative churn. Profitability metrics improved modestly, with supply in profit rising from 54.6% to 56.8%, NUPL improving from negative 31.9% to negative 26.7%, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio lifting from negative 0.8 to negative 0.7. That eases some of the pressure built up during the decline. Still, Glassnode’s broader message is hard to miss: Bitcoin’s market structure looks steadier than it did a week ago, but until spot demand returns in force, the rebound remains more tentative than convincing. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,755. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode data shows strong demand during bitcoin’s recent correction, with 200,00 BTC purchased over the past two weeks.
Data shows an extraordinarily thin supply between $72,000 and $80,000, suggesting there's little resistance in that range.
Expert trader Tony Severino, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s top, has raised the possibility of a crash to $4,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to break key resistance levels, signaling that it could be at risk of a deeper decline. Expert Trader Raises Potential Bitcoin Drop To $4,000 In an X post, Tony Severino questioned the possibility that the next Bitcoin bull market is a lower high followed by a lower low. His accompanying chart showed BTC may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could spark a crash to $4,000. As such, he urged market participants to play the range and cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin 5TH Wave Is Not Over Yet, And Price Could Still Crash To $52,000; Analyst Warns When asked about a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, the expert trader said it’s more speculative because the idea of a bottom can change over time. However, he noted that BTC is bottoming now on shorter timeframes and that on the longest timeframes, it could still take a while. Severino also recently stated that he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, implying a bottom at around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $40,000 before it finds a bottom. Notably, BTC continues to struggle, suggesting it remains at risk of a deeper decline despite the recent relief rally to $70,000. In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold. The platform added that this pattern is consistent with a thin-liquidity regime, in which even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts. How BTC Could Drop To $30,000 In This Bear Market Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market between 2009 and 2026. He warned that if the global macro breaks down, then the $30,000 level is the fallback level of support. The analyst highlighted $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? However, Willy Woo believes $45,000 would be a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that this bearish sell-off by investors appears to have been exhausted, which may allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month and possibly rebound to the mid $70,000 range. However, this level would likely be rejected. The analyst explained that this is because the broader regime is heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Willy Woo predicts that Q4 would be a good time for the end of the bearish trend and that Q1 or Q2 2027 would be an appropriate time for bullish momentum to return. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Hash Ribbon recovery and sub production pricing suggest the worst of the bitcoin drawdown may have passed.
Glassnode data shows a 43% surge in supply clustered in the $60K to $70K range following bitcoin’s 50% decline from its October all time high.
Bearish sentiments continue to dominate the Bitcoin market as the premier cryptocurrency looks to record a fifth consecutive monthly loss. Presently, prices are consolidating beneath the $70,000 mark, as market bulls struggle to force a decisive breakout above the resistance zone. Amid this choppy price action, data from the Bitcoin options market shows that traders are beginning to expect less volatility but still acknowledge the fragile nature of the market. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks Bitcoin Volatility Expectations Drop, Market Panic Fades In an X post on February 20, Glassnode shared its weekly Bitcoin options market update, analyzing the traders’ behavior and sentiment in relation to present market conditions. The market analytics firm reports a notable change in volatility expectations that helps to subside the presently heightened bearish sentiments. According to Glassnode analysts, At-the-money (ATM) implied volatility across maturities has significantly dropped to around 48%, down significantly from recent highs. Because ATM IV reflects the market’s expected move, the decline suggests traders are no longer betting on an immediate price crash. Notably, this shift is reinforced by moves in DVOL, an indicator for measuring aggregate implied volatility expectations. Following initial spikes during the market liquidation in late January/early February, DVOL has fallen by roughly 10 volatility points over the past two weeks, signaling that extreme hedging demand is easing out. In addition, the short-term volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive. Earlier this month, one-week VRP plunged to deeply negative levels at -45, as realized volatility far exceeded implied. Since then, implied volatility has repriced higher while realized volatility has stabilized, restoring a premium in short-dated options. Together, these metrics suggest that panic pricing is being reset, and expectations for outsized, volatile moves have declined. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Gets x402 Facilitator For AI Agent Payments: Why This Is Bullish Bitcoin Traders Remain Alert To Downside Despite the cooling in volatility expectations, other metrics show that traders are maintaining a defensive market position. For example, the Put skew, which measures the relative demand for downside protection versus upside exposure, remains quite heightened despite moving off the extreme hedge. After bottoming near the 7 volatility points, the one-week 25-delta skew has rebounded toward 14 vol. The recovery indicates that while extreme fear has subsided, demand for downside insurance remains firm. The taker flow data also tells a similar story. Puts represented two-thirds of last week’s options activity, with outright put buying representing about 34% of total flow. The dominance of protective positioning suggests that market participants are not fully convinced the correction has run its course. In conclusion, the options market is signaling a more measured outlook, where expectations for immediate turmoil have faded, but traders are hedging to hedge against the risk of another downside. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $67,628 following a 0.92% gain in the last 24 hours. More data from Glassnode also shows that Dealers are broadly short gamma across a wide price range between $70,000 and $58,000, a positioning structure that could amplify selling pressure if Bitcoin extends losses. Conversely, a large gamma concentration around $75,000 suggests positioning for a potential rebound. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
Geopolitical tensions lift the U.S. dollar and crude prices, adding pressure to an already fragile crypto market.
Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Feb. 5 shock booked the largest-ever realized loss — $3.2 billion — in bitcoin history.
On-chain data from Glassnode has unveiled the reason why the XRP price has been in a persistent downtrend since 2025. Notably, the XRP price crashed from its high above $3 last year and has been falling ever since. While many in the crypto space believed XRP could eventually reclaim the $3 level, the cryptocurrency has continued to struggle, shedding more gains each month amid broader market weakness and a shift in sentiment. Why The XRP Price Has Been Declining Since 2025 Glassnode has attributed XRP’s prolonged price correction since 2025 to a shift in investor behavior driven by weakening on-chain profitability and rising losses among holders. According to the data, XRP fell below the aggregate holder cost basis, which represents the average price at which current investors acquired their tokens. Related Reading: XRP Price To $1 Or $10? Analyst Warns Investors Of Possible Crash When a cryptocurrency trades below this level, a large portion of holders are technically underwater, meaning they are holding at a loss. This condition often leads to panic selling as investors attempt to limit further losses, increasing selling pressure on the asset and reinforcing the price downtrend. A key indicator supporting this view is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), measured using a seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The SOPR tracks whether coins being moved or sold on the blockchain are being done so at a profit or a loss. Glassnode’s chart shows that XRP’s SOPR declined from about 1.6 in July 2025 to around 0.96 recently. Notably, a value above 1 indicates that holders are selling at a profit, while a value below that signals that coins are being sold at a loss. This sustained move below the neutral level suggests that most selling activity in XRP is now occurring at a loss rather than in profit-taking conditions. As a result, on-chain profitability for XRP holders has turned negative. Such an environment usually weakens investors’ confidence in a cryptocurrency and reduces the incentive to hold it, especially among short-term traders. Negative profitability can also discourage new capital inflows, as prospective buyers see limited signs of recovery or momentum, further contributing to price decline or stagnation. XRP Structure Mirrors Bearish 2022 Setup Interestingly, Glassnode noted that XRP’s current market structure closely resembles a period between September 2021 and May 2022. During that earlier phase, XRP’s SOPR also fell below 1 and remained there for a long time. Related Reading: XRP Bounces Hard After Capitulation — Relief Rally Or Another Bull Trap? The period was also marked by prolonged consolidation and low volatility following sharp declines, before the market eventually stabilized. This comparison suggests that XRP may be experiencing a similar structural phase in which losses dominate trading activity and recovery is delayed until selling pressure eases and sentiment moves back to positive territory. As of writing, the XRP price has declined even further, now trading under $1.4. CoinMarketCap data shows that the cryptocurrency has plummeted by more than 4.3% over the past 24 hours and by well over 46% year to date. Featured Image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Glassnode data is showing buying across all cohorts of bitcoin holders.
Bitcoin’s market shook hard on a single day of trading, sending prices tumbling to $65,000 and nerves flaring. Reports note the move wiped out a big chunk of recent gains and pushed many recent buyers into loss. Price action this sharp rarely comes without a story behind it — and this one had several threads pulling at once. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands Bitcoin: Capitulation And Selling Pressure According to Glassnode, the spike in forced sales is one of the biggest seen in about two years. Traders who had used borrowed money were hit first. Liquidations swept through positions, and many coins moved from hands that bought recently to hands that sold quickly. Realized losses climbed to the highest levels since late 2022, with close to $890 million a day recorded on a seven-day average. The sell-off unfolded over roughly 10 hours of intense trading, with panic and program trades both playing a role. The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling. These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.… pic.twitter.com/mcvVqXJcYq — glassnode (@glassnode) February 5, 2026 Prices Fall Below Buyer Cost Lines Reports say Bitcoin’s market price has fallen under several on-chain cost markers that many investors watch. Short-term buyers who picked up coins in recent months now sit below their purchase price. That creates a kind of pressure where emotional selling can feed into more selling. Active investor costs and broader market averages were all above the spot price, which made the slide feel deeper. When a market drops under the average cost of recent buyers, volatility tends to rise and traders begin hunting for the next reliable support. News Flow And Timing The move comes after a run of strong gains earlier in the year. Price was last at these levels back in November 2024, just before US President Donald Trump won his reelection. That timing put the fall in sharper relief for some observers who had started to see those prior highs as a fresh floor. Headlines and big trades added friction to the market. Social chatter and rapid shifts in order books amplified selling, and some long-term holders did move to lock in gains or cut risk. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures What The Numbers Tell Us Based on on-chain measures, the recent drop forced a large group of holders to realize losses, not just paper losses but actual transactions where coins left wallets at a lower price than they were bought. That kind of clearing can remove built-up leverage and leave a cleaner market on the other side. It also leaves fewer buyers near current levels, which means rebounds can be choppy and uneven. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Extreme capitulation metrics are now matching levels seen only at major cycle lows.
Limited historical trading activity and thin onchain supply suggest further consolidation or a retest of the lower range.
Convergence between bitcoin supply in profit and supply in loss has repeatedly coincided with major market lows.
As XRP slides below $1.60, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the current structure is looking similar to that of April 2022. XRP Is Fast Approaching Its Realized Price In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about where XRP is currently trading with respect to its Realized Price. This on-chain indicator measures the cost basis or acquisition price of the average address on the blockchain. When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this metric, it means the investors as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being below the indicator suggests the majority of the supply is underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the XRP Realized Price over the last several years: As is visible in the above graph, the XRP spot price has been above the Realized Price since 2024, indicating that holders have been enjoying net unrealized gains. The degree of profitability, however, hasn’t been constant in this period. The asset’s price had the largest gap over the metric back in late 2024, owing to a fast bull rally. Then, over the first three quarters of 2025, profitability gradually dropped as tokens changed hands at higher levels, leading to an increase in the Realized Price. The indicator hit a plateau in the last quarter of the year, but the bearish shift in the asset meant that it was now the price’s turn to approach the line, cutting back on average investor profits further. This trend has deepened recently. Following the sector-wide crash during the past week, XRP has come dangerously close to the Realized Price, which now sits at $1.48. “The current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022,” noted the analytics firm. Back then, the asset was transitioning to a bear market and its price fell to the Realized Price. That retest failed, and what followed was a steep move down that eventually led to the cycle low. Given the proximity that the current XRP price has to the indicator, it now remains to be seen whether a retest will occur in the near future and if it would lead to further bearish action like in 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? In the scenario that the cryptocurrency’s decline continues, technical support levels pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez may come into play. As displayed in the chart, Martinez has drawn levels based on a parallel channel pattern. “For XRP, resistance sits at $1.86, while support is at $1.38 and $1.02,” noted the analyst. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.60, down nearly 15% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode data shows large bitcoin holders accumulating, while retail remains in distribution.