The Bitcoin price surge above $106,000 this week has reignited bullish sentiment across the market, with analysts suggesting that the stars are aligning for a rally to a new all-time high. From shifting geopolitical tensions to a major regulatory pivot in the United States (US), multiple macroeconomic factors appear to be setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive move. Ceasefire And Rate Cut Buzz Fuel Bitcoin Price Optimism Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price briefly slipped, triggering over $200 million in leveraged long liquidations. However, this dip proved short-lived as the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded swiftly above $100,000 following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a total ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This sudden de-escalation helped ease global market anxiety, pushing Bitcoin past $106,000 and oil prices sharply down from $77 to under $70. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Reveals Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Feels Different As Crypto Enters ‘New Era’ Simultaneously, Optimism is building that the US Federal Reserve (FED) could begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. Sharing new data by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, crypto analyst CW disclosed that the odds of a FED rate cut have increased to 18.6% by July 30 during the scheduled FOMC meeting. The report reveals that 81.4% of market participants believe the FED to keep rates unchanged at their current level. However, FedWatch’s data indicates growing expectations for a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, with 79% betting on a reduction and only 21.3% anticipating no change. Notably, lower interest rates generally benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and boosting investor sentiment. With geopolitical tensions easing and a possibly looser monetary policy on the horizon, Bitcoin could gain further momentum, potentially climbing to $110,000. Supporting this bullish forecast, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggests that Bitcoin is gearing up for a rally toward a new ATH of $110,000 following its recent reclaim of the key $103,500 level. Although a retracement to around $102,500 remains possible, Bennett believes that once BTC cleans up support around $103,400, formed during Monday’s expansion, the next move could be parabolic. Regulatory Win Solidify Bitcoin’s Position In TradFi Beyond anticipated rate cuts and ceasefire announcements, the US FED recently made a landmark policy shift that could have profound long-term implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. By removing “reputational risk” as a factor in evaluating crypto firms’ access to bank servicing, the FED is effectively ending a key pillar of Operation Checkpoint 2.0—a campaign that restricted over 30 crypto and fintech companies from traditional financial infrastructure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Deviates From Global M2 Money Supply, Is The Bull Run Over? This recent change clears the way for greater institutional involvement in crypto. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have also followed suit, green-lighting crypto activities for banks and allowing them to participate in the digital assets market without prior approval. Together, these moves mark a regulatory pivot that not only legitimizes the crypto industry but could also accelerate demand and capital inflows into Bitcoin, potentially boosting its already significant valuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price was little changed and traded just above $104,000 as policymakers expect stickier inflation and slower growth.
The crypto market was unfazed by the escalating conflict in the Middle East on Monday.
The Bitcoin price has continued to trade sideways since hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,900 earlier in May. Amid the current price action, crypto analyst Decode has provided insights into whether the leading crypto will rally to $120,000 or drop below $100,000 next. Analyst Reveals What’s Next For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Decode shared an accompanying chart in which he made an ABC wave analysis of the current Bitcoin price action. Based on his analysis, the leading crypto is expected to drop below $100,000 before it rallies to a new ATH of $120,000. The chart showed that BTC could fall to as low as $96,500 on the Wave B corrective move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Bounces Off Re-Accumulation Zone: Why $120,000 Could Be Next This drop to $96,500 is expected to happen this month. Once that is done, Decode predicts that the Bitcoin price could rally above $120,500 before the end of July. This will mark the Wave C impulsive move to the upside. This aligns with veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction that BTC could reach as high as $150,000 by late summer. However, crypto analyst KillaXBT has predicted that the Bitcoin price could hit the $120,000 target by mid-June. This coincides with the June FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for June 17 and 18. A Fed rate cut could serve as the catalyst for such a parabolic rally from the current BTC price level. According to CME FedWatch data, there is a 97.4% chance that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged. As such, market participants aren’t expecting a rate cut, which is why the Bitcoin price could pump massively if Jerome Powell and the FOMC were to surprise everyone. Moreover, US President Donald Trump yesterday urged the Fed to cut rates by a full point. A Breakout Might Be On The Cards In an X post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto suggested that a breakout could be imminent for the Bitcoin price. He noted that BTC is progressing inside a 4-hour falling wedge, which indicates a bullish reversal pattern. If confirmed, the analyst stated that the breakout could target the $107,500 and $109,500 zones, which are the Fibonacci confluence areas. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Puts Bitcoin Price At $120,000 If This Range Breakout Happens Crypto analyst Kevin Capital highlighted the solid V-shape recovery for the Bitcoin price after the leading crypto dropped to as low as $100,000 on May 5. However, the analyst noted that BTC’s rebound back to the $105,000 zone won’t matter until it breaks above the $106,800 level. The leading crypto must also show actual follow-through with 3-day to 1-week closes to support a breakout. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $105,000. Up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin hovers between $107,000 and $111,000, a deceptively narrow range that masks an options market bristling with tension. In a note to clients released today, Singapore-based QCP Capital argues that the lull is anything but benign. “Bitcoin’s reaction to last Friday’s macro developments was relatively restrained, even as equities rallied sharply,” the desk writes, pointing to “steady” institutional inflows into spot-BTC ETFs as the anchor keeping spot prices in check. Bitcoin Calm Before The Storm? The stability, however, has not bled into derivatives: “Front-end implied volatility held firm, with BTC consolidating in a tight range,” QCP observes, adding that traders are actively paying up for one- and two-week downside protection ahead of the Bitcoin Conference that opens in Las Vegas later today. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters A Massive Week: Key Events To Watch QCP frames the three-day gathering—whose speaker roster includes US Vice President JD Vance, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor, and Donald Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr.—as the key near-term volatility catalyst. “The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk,” the firm writes. Memories of last year’s Nashville conference linger: a keynote by US President Trump sent one-day implied volatility above 90 before collapsing, with spot BTC tumbling nearly 30 percent in forty-eight hours. “That episode continues to shape market memory,” QCP warns, even as it assigns a low probability to a repeat. The positioning data argue for caution all the same. Perpetual futures open interest has retreated in the past twenty-four hours, and funding rates have slid back toward neutral levels—signs, QCP says, of “a defensive tilt.” Retail voices that typically embrace leverage are dialing back risk as well. Popular trader James Wynn has publicly trimmed longs, echoing an uptick in demand for short-dated puts that QCP describes as “persistent.” ETF flows remain the counterweight to that defensiveness. US spot-Bitcoin products absorbed 7,869 BTC last Friday, the largest single-day haul since late April, according to Glassnode data. For the week ending 23 May, net inflows reached $2.75 billion, the second-strongest weekly print of the year. Those allocations, QCP argues, “offer underlying support,” but are not large enough to overwhelm options-driven short-term swings should headlines jolt sentiment. Rumors—since denied—that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion crypto raise exemplify the hair-trigger backdrop. “Headline sensitivity is elevated,” QCP writes. In its base case, Bitcoin holds its current band until the Las Vegas speeches conclude, after which “front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade.” Higher Until Early June? Not everyone agrees that the compression will come quickly. The pseudonymous macro-cycle analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero), whose FOMC-timing model correctly flagged Bitcoin’s March low and February high, remains emphatically long. “This is not a ‘top in June’ call,” he posts on X. “This is a call that we go higher from here, and I remain bullish. Big difference.” Related Reading: Massive Whale Activity Detected on Binance as Bitcoin Tests New Highs He argues that Bitcoin historically grinds upward until roughly ten calendar days before an FOMC meeting; the next one lands on 18 June. “Price likely keeps going higher until the 8th–18th of June,” he writes, adding that cyclical weekly timing “lines up” and that he is “looking for longs upon short-time-frame pullbacks.” Astronomer’s conviction rests on a broader twenty-four-week cycle that he dates from the October 2024 breakout. “We are only week six,” he notes, implying that the upside phase is barely half-way through. He concedes that “alts always lag behind BTC,” but argues that pressing the momentum trade now is critical: “Going with momentum as long as possible gets you in the right mindset before trying to short too early.” For the moment, spot prices stay eerily placid even as the options market prices a storm. Whether that storm strikes upward or downward may depend on a sound bite delivered from a Las Vegas stage or on a policy nuance telegraphed from the Marriner Eccles Building three weeks later. Until then, Bitcoin’s calm is precisely what makes veteran traders nervous—and why hedging desks are doing brisk business selling fear. At press time, BTC traded at $110,661. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
With the Federal Open Market Committee set to announce its May 7 policy decision, Bitcoin traders face a macro‑driven inflection point that could define price action into the summer. The Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, is all but certain to keep the fed‑funds corridor at 4.25 to 4.50 percent; CME Group’s FedWatch tool assigns a 98.2 percent probability to an unchanged stance. That near‑certainty, however, has not muffled political noise. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have publicly pressed for lower borrowing costs, yet Powell’s most recent public remarks on 16 April framed monetary policy as “in a wait‑and‑see mode,” adding that the labor market “is in decent shape” but that the Fed’s “obligation is to keep longer‑term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one‑time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.” In effect, the central bank continues to prioritize price stability even as leading indicators imply a cooling economy and a likely pivot to easing in the second half of the year. FOMC Preview For Bitcoin For Bitcoin, the debate is less about whether the Fed blinks tomorrow and more about how algorithmic liquidity and discretionary positioning react to the tone of Powell’s press conference. Crypto trader Josh Rager told his followers on X, “Expect chop chop until FOMC tomorrow. Then after the rate cut announcement, expect volatility. With a reversal during Powell’s speech. That’s my FOMC playbook at the moment.” Although Rager’s baseline presumes an eventual reduction in rates, his near‑term focus is the intraday whipsaw that typically frames the statement‑and‑Q&A window. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Investments With Latest Purchase, Now Holding 555,450 BTC In Total Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) offered a more probabilistic roadmap, emphasizing that his trademarked FOMC‑reversal model has “consistently provided reversals with an over 85 percent chance. If the mechanics continue to play out for this month, that would mean we would (have) top(ped) out this or last week before a significant move down.” Yet he tempers that historical edge by noting that the prevailing quarterly uptrend in Bitcoin could blunt the signal: “That would mean that this and/or next FOMC meeting both have a weakened reversal effect in the midst of what I expect to be a strong uptrend.” In practical terms, he foresees: “I think the most likely scenario (76% chance) is a move up from here and the FOMC reversal gets completely ignored. The smaller chance (24%) is indeed a rather shallow pullback within our stoploss area.” Related Reading: LMACD Indicator Reveals Where The Bitcoin Price Is After Rejection From $97,000 Columbus (@columbus0x) looks to the microstructure for confirmation. Citing a Hyblock heat‑map of liquidations, he expects “a wick below into the box… below the equal lows and also exactly the area that Hyblock has highlighted as a yellow zone,” a region that coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the last significant swing low. Should Powell strike a hawkish tone, Columbus anticipates “a deviation below the range low / a retest of the 200‑day SMA, closing the CME gap between $91.8 and$92.4 k – or possibly even dipping into the high $80’s. Nonetheless: trend is up.” Momentum diagnostics add a final layer. Titan of Crypto observes that Bitcoin “is consolidating between last week’s high and low, awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the daily MACD is crossing bearish, signaling slowing momentum.” A confirmed rollover in the histogram would align with the shallow‑pullback scenario outlined by Astronomer and Columbus, yet the consolidation itself keeps higher‑time‑frame trend traders constructive Taken together, tomorrow’s decision appears binary only on the surface; the real determinant is Powell’s forward‑guidance language and its impact on terminal‑rate pricing. If the Chair stresses patience while acknowledging softer data, the curve could begin to discount a June cut, providing a macro tailwind that validates the bulls’ quarterly thesis. Conversely, any hint of renewed vigilance on inflation would embolden short‑term bears hunting liquidity below $92 k. Either way, the tape has little room for complacency: liquidity is thin, options gamma is clustered around the psychologically resonant $100,000 strike, and the narrative energy surrounding a second‑half‑of‑2025 easing cycle is colliding head‑on with the Fed’s near‑term inflation mandate. At press time, BTC traded at $94,097. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
DeFi tokens such as Hyperliquid’s HYPE are up 70% in the past week, a sign of traders favoring fundamentals as capital allocators remain cautious with their money.
The U.S. central bank continues to expect the fed funds rate to end 2025 at 3.9%, or roughly two rate cuts by year-end.
Meanwhile, gold broke above $3,000 to new highs earlier Wednesday, leading to some eyeing an inverse correlation of the yellow metal with bitcoin.
A crypto rally to new highs may have to wait until later this year, said Coinbase Institutional's head of research.
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has warned that the Bitcoin price risks a further crash. This came as he revealed a critical technical indicator, which has turned bearish for the flagship crypto, although he noted that BTC bulls can still invalidate this current bearish setup. Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish In an X post, Severino indicated that the Bitcoin price could crash further as the S&P 500 monthly LMACD has begun to cross bearish and the histogram has turned red. This development is significant as IntoTheBlock data shows that BTC and the stock market still have a strong positive price correlation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Action Says Bottom Is In, Analyst Reveals What’s Coming The crypto analyst stated that BTC bulls can turn this bearish setup for the Bitcoin price in the next 20 days, as diverging would lead to a bullish setup instead. However, the Bulls’ failure to turn this around for Bitcoin could lead to a massive decline for the flagship crypto, worse than it has already witnessed. Severino stated that a confirmation of this bearish setup at the end of the month could kick off a bear market or Black Swan type event similar to what happened when the last two crossovers occurred. It is worth mentioning that BTC has already crashed to as low as $76,000 recently, sparking concerns that the bear market might already be here. However, crypto experts such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes have suggested that the bull market is still well in play for the Bitcoin price. Hayes noted that BTC has corrected around 30% from its current all-time high (ATH), which he remarked is normal in a bull run. The BitMEX founder predicts that the flagship crypto will rebound once the US Federal Reserve begins to ease its monetary policies. BTC Still Looking Good Despite Recent Crash Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has suggested that the Bitcoin price still looks good despite the recent crash. In his latest market update, he stated that BTC remains the best-looking chart and that everything is going according to plan for the flagship crypto. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin could still come down and test the range between $70,000 and $75,000, which he claims would still be completely fine. Related Reading: Bitcoin 77% Correction To $25,000, Will History Repeat Itself Kevin Capital remarked that the Bitcoin price could remain afloat if it holds a key market structure and the 3-day MACD resets. He added that some decent macro data could help the flagship crypto stay above key support levels. The US CPI data will be released today, which could provide some relief for the market if it shows that inflation is slowing. The analyst is confident that one good inflation report and the FOMC can help turn the tides. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,860, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
On Tuesday, February 19, the Federal Reserve released their meeting minutes, revealing that central bankers are considering an end—or at least a significant slowdown—to quantitative tightening (QT). The document states: “Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” These remarks have fueled optimism among Bitcoin experts who view the potential end of QT as a bullish signal. Many see it as a precursor to greater liquidity entering financial markets, a condition that has historically benefited risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The newly published minutes confirm that certain Fed officials are worried about the interaction between ongoing balance sheet reduction and the looming debt ceiling debate. The possibility of large-scale US Treasury issuance once the debt ceiling is resolved appears to be a key driver behind calls to pause or halt QT. Related Reading: Bears In Trouble? Bitcoin Liquidity Signals A Brutal Squeeze To $111,000 No explicit shift to quantitative easing (QE) was announced, but the acknowledgment that balance sheet reduction might be curtailed has been enough to stoke speculation in digital asset circles. The minutes must be unanimously approved by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), further suggesting an intentional message from policymakers. Implications For Bitcoin Renowned market commentator and host of the On the Margin podcast, Felix Jauvin, took to X to emphasize the significance of the Fed’s signaling, writing: “There it is, QT coming to an end this spring. Reminder that every FOMC member has to unanimously approve these minutes, this is intentional.” While Jauvin underscores the unanimity behind these minutes, he stops short of predicting an immediate shift toward QE. Instead, he points to a specific chain of events that the Fed seems to be navigating. The Fed has already reduced the pace of balance sheet runoff by half compared to its initial rate. Jauvin also notes that as the reverse repo facility (RRP) nears zero and the Fed reaches its target reserve level of roughly 3% of GDP, an end to QT becomes more likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Meets Fiscal Reality: Fidelity’s Timmer Predicts What’s Next Moreover, concerns loom over the Treasury General Account (TGA) potentially being rebuilt once the debt ceiling is resolved, leading to sizable bill issuance which could lead to interim disruptions in funding markets. Therefore, rather than pivot to QE, Jauvin believes the Fed could pursue a temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, allowing commercial banks to absorb additional government debt. “They are very very very very far from any sort of formal QE. Instead, it’s more likely they pursue an SLR exemption allowing commercial banks to be the marginal buyer of debt,” Jauvin predicts. A formal return to QE, Jauvin concludes, would only materialize if financial and economic conditions deteriorate significantly, including a major collapse in risk assets and a drop in rates to near zero. In response to an X user asking if ending QT is bullish without necessarily indicating an immediate move to QE, Jauvin offered a succinct explanation: “Therefore think for the current liquidity backdrop it is marginally improving in that we will have the possible sequence of TGA drawdown into QT ending into potentially SLR exemption, and that’ll be it for now. QE shouldn’t even be in the current vocabulary of discourse as it stands.” Renowned crypto analyst Pentoshi agrees, highlighting a previously published forecast: “QT coming to an end… My guess, QT ends by start of Q3. With all that’s taking place currently Trump will likely end up forcing it. Was correct on QT guess in Nov 21. Let’s see.” He cited how the conclusion of quantitative easing in late 2021 coincided with the end of the crypto bull run. Now, market watchers are keenly observing whether the inverse—a potential termination of QT—could spark renewed momentum for Bitcoin and other digital assets. At press time, BTC traded at $97,208. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In the past few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has withstood two key developments that could have derailed the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. Given Bitcoin’s resilience, analysts are now predicting a new BTC all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks. Bitcoin Defies DeepSeek Sell-Off, FOMC Uncertainty Earlier this week, US stocks took a hit after Chinese AI firm DeepSeek unveiled its open-source LLM, raising concerns over the high market valuation of its American counterparts. As a result, the S&P 500 saw a strong sell-off, with NVIDIA leading the losses, dropping 16% in a single day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid NASDAQ Decline, Analyst Calls It ‘Extremely Bullish’ Similarly, in its latest meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. While the hawkish stance was expected to deal another blow to crypto markets, BTC remained relatively unscathed after an initial dip. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $105,839, having essentially recouped all its losses from the DeepSeek-induced market crash. In fact, BTC has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five days, surging 1.53%, compared to the latter’s 1.25% decline. New BTC ATH In February? Seasoned crypto trader Pentoshi commented on BTC’s strength, saying that the digital asset has held up well despite the turmoil. The trader added that they see no reason why BTC shouldn’t hit a new ATH soon. Another Bitcoin enthusiast, Castillo Trading, noted that Bitcoin’s price structure “looks flawless.” They added that both lower- and higher-time frames suggest that BTC will likely go higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report In a similar vein, crypto trader and entrepreneur Michael van de Poppe said that the market will likely see a new BTC ATH in the ‘coming weeks,’ potentially hinting at February as the target month. Further, crypto trader Roman shared the following chart, commenting that “Stoch & RSI have plenty of room to break $108,000 resistance and head higher.” They added that bullish divergence on BTC is also playing out nicely. For the uninitiated, both Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) and Relative-Strength Index (RSI) are momentum indicators that help traders identify whether the underlying asset is oversold or overbought in current market conditions. While projections for a new BTC ATH may be focused on the short-term, market cycle peaks are expected to occur in the summer of 2025. For instance, a recent report by Bitfinex forecasts that BTC could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, amid shallow price pullbacks. Meanwhile DeepSeek predicts that BTC may top out between $500,000 and $600,000 by Q1 2026. At press time, BTC trades at $105,839, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
After a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made a swift recovery, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20. However, according to a crypto analyst, further upside could be limited until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Bitcoin To Remain Range-Bound Until FOMC Meeting The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been on a bullish trajectory since November, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Over the past three months, BTC has surged from approximately $67,000 to $104,536 at the time of writing, posting gains of over 50%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast Of $150,000 ‘Too Low’ Amid Rising Adoption, Crypto Trader Says However, crypto analyst Krillin predicts that BTC may continue to “chop” in the $100,000 to $110,000 range until the FOMC meeting. The analyst suggests that unless the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary policy measures, BTC is unlikely to break out of this range before the end of the month. At present, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Krillin expects a market dump to follow the anticipated hawkish meeting, which may be partially offset by a dovish-sounding press conference hinting at future quantitative easing (QE). For the uninitiated, QE is a monetary policy where central banks inject money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and other financial assets to lower interest rates and stimulate economic activity. This increased money supply can weaken fiat currencies, potentially driving investors toward assets like BTC, boosting its price as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Krillin’s prediction aligns with a recent market observation which states that BTC profit-taking has declined by 93% from its December peak, and that the long-term holders are back in accumulation mode, preparing for the next leg up. However, how long the current consolidation phase may last is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes a sharp decline in capital inflows into the digital assets market, from $134 billion on December 10 to $43.37 billion. This low liquidity could result in sharp price swings, increasing the risk of liquidations for leverage traders. Will BTC Peak In Q2 2025? As BTC awaits the FOMC meeting to determine its next price trend, some analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency could hit its market cycle peak in Q2 2025 as more institutions embrace the asset under favourable regulations. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report For example, crypto analyst Dave The Wave recently predicted that BTC will likely peak in the summer of 2025. A report by Bitfinex supports this outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, albeit with minor corrections along the way. That said, Bitcoin must defend the $100,000 price level, as failure to do so could see the asset drop to as low as $97,500. At press time, BTC trades at $104,536, up 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
A recent report by digital assets research firm 10x Research highlights that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on interest rate cuts remains the most significant hurdle that could dampen the current Bitcoin (BTC) rally. Bitcoin’s Trump-Fuelled Rally At Risk Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Since pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump secured victory in the November presidential election, Bitcoin has climbed an impressive 47%, rising from approximately $67,500 on November 4 to around $99,700 as of January 6. Related Reading: Metaplanet Bitcoin Reserves Grow With Fresh $61 Million Purchase While further gains are anticipated during the so-called “Trump rally” leading up to the January 20 inauguration, the momentum might stall ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in January, says 10x Research’s Markus Thielen. Thielen predicts a “positive start” to January for BTC, followed by a slight dip before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data release on January 15. A favorable CPI report could reignite optimism, potentially fueling another rally before Trump’s inauguration. However, Thielen cautions that bullish momentum may wane ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 29. Latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged following the upcoming FOMC meeting. The tool currently predicts a 90.9% chance of interest rates remaining 425 and 450 basis points (BPS). Bitcoin’s decline of approximately 15% to $92,900 following the December 18 FOMC meeting underscores the Fed’s significant influence. This drop came after the Fed signaled only two rate cuts for 2025 instead of five, reinforcing Thielen’s view that the Fed’s decisions are the “primary risk” to BTC’s current bullish trajectory. Thielen stated: We anticipate lower inflation this year, though it may take some time for the Federal Reserve to recognize and respond to this shift formally. Thielen also cited institutional participation as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s short-term price action, with metrics like stablecoin minting rates and crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows serving as indicators of institutional interest. Institutional Interest In Bitcoin Continues To Rise Although US spot Bitcoin ETFs faced significant outflows at the end of December, fresh inflows have sparked optimism about rising institutional interest in the premier cryptocurrency. Data from SoSoValue notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $908 million in inflows on January 3. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Face ‘Demand Shocks’ In 2025 Due To Growing Institutional Interest: Report In addition, several major BTC mining firms such as MARA and Hut 8 are bolstering their BTC reserves. Technology firms such as Canada-based video-sharing platform Rumble also recently unveiled a $20 million BTC treasury strategy. A separate report by cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predicts Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, despite minor price pullbacks. At press time, BTC trades at $101,555, up 3.7% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from 10x Research, CME FedWatch and Tradingview.com
10x Research’s founder Markus Thielen said the Federal Reserve’s decisions remain Bitcoin’s “primary risk,” slowing it from another price surge.
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18, global equity market indices have experienced a slight downturn. However, Bitcoin (BTC) has held steady, trading in the mid-$90,000 range at the time of writing. Bitcoin Steady Amid Speculations Of Slower Interest Rate Cuts After over a year of consecutive interest rate hikes, the […]
Net inflows into spot Ether ETFs were positive in 22 of the last 24 trading days in 2024 and one analyst expects flows to increase even more under the Trump administration.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments Wednesday on rate cuts have rattled investors across asset classes.
The price of bitcoin, already lower from yesterday, dipped below $104,000 in the minutes following the announcement.
The price of bitcoin, already lower from yesterday, dipped below $104,000 in the minutes following the announcement.
Bitcoin’s correction reflects investors’ inflation concerns and highlights the potential impact of future US fiscal policies.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later today could shake up markets as he will face questions about the central bank's outlook on monetary policy and inflation after Donald Trump's decisive win of the U.S. presidential election.
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, the crypto market’s focus is on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming announcements. Scheduled for 2:00 PM ET are both the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the FOMC Statement, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following at 2:30 PM ET. These events are poised to have significant implications for cryptocurrencies and broader financial markets. What The Crypto Market Can Expect Market participants overwhelmingly anticipate a rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 97.5% expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. This expectation aligns with recent economic indicators and reflects a consensus that the Fed will continue its cautious monetary easing. “The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the November 7 meeting. This aligns with market expectations and follows a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report,” Althea Spinozzi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Saxo Bank, notes. Related Reading: ‘Crypto Has Already Won’, Regardless Of Trump Or Harris Win: Bitwise CIO The Fed is likely to maintain a measured approach, emphasizing gradual rate cuts over abrupt policy shifts. Chair Powell is expected to underscore a data-dependent and restrained policy stance, focusing on the nuanced dynamics of the current economic landscape. Spinozzi adds, “The Fed is likely to continue its measured approach, emphasizing gradual rate cuts rather than drastic policy shifts. Chair Jerome Powell is expected to highlight a data-dependent and restrained policy stance.” While headline inflation appears to be easing, core components suggest persistent pressures. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-over-year in September, the lowest since February 2021. However, critical sectors like shelter and services continue to see elevated prices. Shelter prices are up 4.9% year-over-year, and services excluding energy rose by 4.7%. “The core PCE inflation rate—a key Fed measure—has stabilized at an annualized 2.3% over both three- and six-month averages but continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target,” Spinozzi highlights. Persistent inflation in these sectors could exert upward pressure on overall inflation, complicating the Fed’s efforts to achieve its target. The labor market remains robust despite recent disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. The unemployment rate stands firm at 4.1%, and temporary layoffs have declined in October. Wage growth is showing signs of cooling; the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3 surprised to the downside at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, the softest since Q2 2021. Year-over-year, the ECI remains elevated at 3.9%, significantly above the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) average of 2.16%. Weekly jobless claims are also well below the post-GFC average, indicating sustained labor market strength. Related Reading: Top Crypto Analyst Unveils Best Altcoins For The 2025 Bull Run Overall, the US economy has exhibited unexpected robustness. Third-quarter GDP grew by 2.8% annualized, and personal consumption rose by 3.7%, the strongest quarter since early 2023. However, concerns about the sustainability of this growth persist. Real disposable income has softened, and household savings are declining, potentially limiting future consumer spending. Adding to the complexity is the US presidential election. The victory by Donald Trump could significantly influence fiscal policies, thereby impacting the Fed’s longer-term rate path. “The Federal Reserve will be mindful of how its actions and commentary could influence financial markets that may already be experiencing quite volatile conditions,” James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, remarks. For crypto traders, Jerome Powell’s commentary during the FOMC press conference on anticipated inflationary effects stemming from the Trump election is the key focus. Experts expect that the Trump presidency could lead to policies that underpin inflation, such as tax cuts and increased fiscal spending, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates elevated. Despite the political backdrop, the Fed is expected to proceed with the rate cut. ING analysts suggest, “Even after September’s 50bp rate cut, monetary policy is in restrictive territory, and the Fed has scope to keep cutting rates back to a more neutral level to give the economy a little more breathing space to continue growing strongly.” The current target range for the Fed funds rate is 4.75% to 5%, well above the estimated “neutral” level of 3% to 3.5%. The consensus is that the Fed has room to normalize its policy, especially with the labor market cooling. The crypto market will be closely monitoring not just the rate decision—which appears largely priced in—but also the Fed’s commentary on inflation, economic growth, and the potential impacts of the presidential election. Any indications from Chair Powell regarding future policy shifts could have significant implications for the Bitcoin and crypto markets. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,080. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
BTC price targets already include $100,000, with Bitcoin traders bracing for more volatility around the Fed interest-rate decision.
Bitcoin price rallies as traders react to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as the potential outcome of the upcoming US election.
Bitcoin may have outperformed stocks in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates on Wednesday, but the true winners in the crypto universe are altcoins.
Bitcoin is trending higher at spot rates, floating above $60,000 and confirming gains of September 13. From price action in the daily chart, buyers appear to be back in the picture. The confidence follows the United States Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to slash rates by 50 basis points on September 18. Over $21 Billion Of Shorts To Be Liquidated If Bitcoin Breaks $70,500 While buyers double down, flocking back to BTC, looking at the sharp uptick in trading volume over the past day, one analyst on X has identified an interesting observation if bulls continue to dominate. Citing market data and the liquidation map of Binance perpetuals, the analyst said if Bitcoin flies above $70,500, over $21 billion of shorts will be liquidated. Liquidation happens in the perpetuals market where leverage traders aim to clip market volatility for profit. There are longs, or traders banking on bulls to press prices higher, and shots, betting for prices to drop. Related Reading: October To Remember: Descending Broadening Wedge Says Bitcoin Is Going To $90,000 These positions are leveraged in both instances, meaning they borrow funds from the exchange. The collateral, in this case, the margin, acts as an “insurance” for the exchange. As a result, they will forcefully sell it should the market move against the trader. Looking at the state of price action in the daily chart, Bitcoin needs to expand by around 11% from spot rates of $70,500 to be hit. The immediate liquidation level is at around $66,000, marking August highs. If this level is broken, and the leg up is rising trading volume, the resulting rally could easily be the basis for bulls to overcome the intense liquidation pressure of around $70,000 and $72,000. The $70,000 And $72,000 Resistance Zone Is Crucial For BTC Traders Bitcoin bulls have struggled to break $72,000 since the retest in June. Accordingly, any firm and decisive close above $70,000 can trigger a short squeeze. Therefore, it is highly likely that BTC may retest $73,800 and even print print fresh all-time highs. Related Reading: Cardano Goes Bullish On-Chain: Can ADA Price Catch Up? Coinglass data on September 19 shows that over $69 million of leveraged shorts have been liquidated in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, more than $13 million worth of longs were also forcibly closed due to market volatility. Over 66,000 crypto traders were liquidated in the past day, and the largest leveraged BTCUSD position worth over $8.9 was closed on Bybit, a perpetuals trading platform, during this period. Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price rallies to $61,000 after the US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2020.
Wednesday's FOMC meeting carries uncertainty for the market, with investors still divided on the magnitude of rate cut.