Trump's reserve announcement raised further questions over asset allocations, how it would be funded and how likely it is to be enacted.
Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $80,000 for the first time in over three months. According to data from Binance, BTC hit a low of $78,258, filling the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between $78,000 and $80,000. Bitcoin Fills CME Gap, Is It Time For Rebound? With today’s dip, BTC has now filled every CME gap since March 2024. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading in the low $80,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Its Most Oversold Level Since August 2024 – Is A Rebound Coming? For the uninitiated, the CME gap refers to the price difference that occurs on the CME Bitcoin futures chart between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price, as CME does not trade on weekends. These gaps are often filled later as Bitcoin’s price naturally retraces to these levels, acting as key support or resistance zones. A new CME gap has now emerged due to the ongoing market sell-off, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s confirmation that trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico will take effect on March 4. According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the new CME gap lies between $92,800 and $94,000. If past data is anything to go by, this new CME gap may work as a price magnet, pulling BTC upward and initiating a bullish trend reversal. For example, back in January 2021, BTC filled a CME gap between $29,410 and $33,050. After filling the gap, BTC continued to dip further, before surging to as high as $40,000. That said, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors remain significant. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Trump continue to clash over interest rate policies. While the Fed has maintained that it is in no rush to cut rates, Trump has repeatedly called for immediate reductions. However, positive inflation data could pressure the Fed to accelerate rate cuts. According to an X post by The Kobeissi Letter, January’s PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure – aligned with its projection of 2.5%. Similarly, core inflation – which measures the change in consumer prices excluding volatile items like food and energy – was in-line with expectations of 2.6% as well. However, data from CME FedWatch suggests that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 19 FOMC meeting. Is The BTC Bottom In? Although BTC has fallen nearly 20% over the past month, some analysts believe further downside may still be ahead. A recent forecast from Standard Chartered suggests BTC could decline another 10% before finding support. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Showing Early Signs Of Bullish Divergence? Analyst Explains However, there are also signs that BTC may be forming a local bottom. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that sell-side pressure is easing, which could indicate that BTC is stabilizing. Additionally, the Cryptoasset Sentiment Index recently flashed a strong contrarian buy signal, further hinting at a potential price floor for BTC. At press time, BTC trades at $83,508, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Barr pushed back on claims that the crypto industry is being shut out of the banking sector.
Bitcoin-based funds are “highly sensitive” to interest rate expectations and bore the brunt of last week’s outflows, James Butterfill said.
Bitcoin (BTC) reacted sharply to today’s hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, dropping from around $96,600 to as low as $94,088. Notably, BTC was already trending downward due to escalating geopolitical tensions following Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports. Bitcoin Slumps Amid Surprising Inflation Data The latest US inflation data came in higher than anticipated, triggering declines in both equity and cryptocurrency markets. Instead of the expected 0.3% increase, the CPI rose by 0.5% in January, compared to December’s 0.4% reading. Related Reading: Bitcoin Withstands DeepSeek Dip And FOMC Volatility – How Close Is A New ATH? On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation climbed 3%, exceeding forecasts of a 2.9% increase. For those unfamiliar, the CPI measures the average change in prices consumers pay for goods and services over time and is a key indicator of inflation. Meanwhile, Core CPI – which excludes food and energy costs – rose by 0.4% in January, surpassing the expected 0.3% gain. YoY, Core CPI climbed 3.3%, higher than the forecasted 3.1%. As a result, US stocks followed the crypto market downturn, with stock index futures falling roughly 1% after the report. On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.63%, while the Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened by 0.5%. Could There Be More Downside Ahead? Following the CPI release, markets are now pricing in fewer or possibly no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the remainder of 2025. In an X post, financial journalist Walter Bloomberg noted: Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth thinks a cut this year looks increasingly unlikely. “With tariffs likely to keep core PCE inflation close to, or above, 3% this year now, the Fed will stand pat for at least the next 12 months.” Treasury yields jumped on the inflation data and are holding on to their gains, with the 10-year at 4.651%, on path for its highest close since mid-January. A reduced likelihood of rate cuts poses additional downside risk for risk-on assets like BTC. Further compounding this uncertainty, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress yesterday, emphasizing that central bank rate cuts remain unlikely in the foreseeable future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid NASDAQ Decline, Analyst Calls It ‘Extremely Bullish’ Crypto analyst HurryNFT shared insights on BTC’s price movement following the CPI data release. The analyst noted that while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, Trump is pushing for rate cuts to stimulate the economy. The ongoing friction between the Federal Reserve and Trump could increase market volatility, potentially pushing BTC further down to $92,000. Additionally, the recent US employment report did little to support Bitcoin’s price. On the contrary, however, a recent CryptoQuant report posits that BTC may surge to anywhere between $145,000 to $249,000 under the Trump administration. At press time, BTC trades at $95,240, up 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
Momentum for a Fed audit is building, driven by social media support for Ron Paul to spearhead the effort and an endorsement from Elon Musk.
As crypto firms and their new government allies rail against U.S. regulators for chasing them out of banking, Powell says such tales are a worry he'll address.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
During a press conference last month, Powell said banks can serve crypto customers as long as they can manage the risk.
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics released the January 2025 employment data earlier today, briefly pushing Bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 before it lost all its gains and tumbled back to the $98,000 price level. Bitcoin Rises And Falls Amid Mixed Employment Data Bitcoin spiked from approximately $97,200 to a high of $100,110 after the US reported lower-than-expected job growth for January. According to the data, the US added 143,000 jobs last month, falling short of the projected 170,000. For comparison, December 2024 saw a job increase of 256,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Hour RSI Hits Oversold Zone – Is A BTC Rebound Near? However, Bitcoin’s rally was short-lived, as it quickly erased nearly all its gains, sliding back to $97,957. The following chart illustrates the brief BTC price surge before it retraced to previous levels. In addition to the lower-than-expected job growth, the unemployment rate declined from 4.1% to 4%, highlighting the resilience of the US labor market despite elevated interest rates throughout most of 2024. Following this strong labor market data, the CME FedWatch Tool now assigns only an 8.5% probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates at its next meeting on March 19. Notably, this probability stood at 15% before the employment report was released. A lower likelihood of rate cuts suggests that interest rates will remain higher for longer, dampening Bitcoin bulls’ hopes for multiple reductions in 2025, that could inject fresh liquidity into the market and potentially benefit risk-on assets like BTC. It’s worth noting that from September to December 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, given the continued strength of the labor market and low unemployment, the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance, choosing to wait for potential economic warning signs before implementing further cuts. Global capital markets commentator, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the current US unemployment rate is the lowest since May 2024. They added that the “Fed pause is here to stay.” BTC Steady Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range of $92,000 to $106,000, keeping both bulls and bears uncertain about its next move. Despite this, the flagship cryptocurrency has shown remarkable resilience in the face of several macroeconomic challenges that, under normal circumstances, might have triggered a significant sell-off in the crypto market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid NASDAQ Decline, Analyst Calls It ‘Extremely Bullish’ For instance, BTC remained unfazed by the stock market downturn triggered by the release of China’s AI-powered language model, DeepSeek. Similarly, the digital asset held strong despite renewed trade tensions between the US and China, following President Donald Trump’s imposition of 10% tariffs on the Asian economic powerhouse, which led to retaliatory measures. However, concerns persist regarding the recent slump in Bitcoin network activity, with some analysts questioning whether BTC is currently overvalued. At press time, BTC trades at $98,015, up 1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from TradingView.com
Crypto and wider market sentiment remains fragile ahead of the U.S. jobs report, QCP Capital analysts said.
The industry's U.S. banking crisis may be retreating as a second congressional committee sheds light on how crypto businesses have been treated by regulators.
Coinbase said it wants three top federal banking agencies to take certain steps to end alleged debanking in the crypto industry.
According to a recent analysis by Benjamin Cowen, CEO and Founder of ITC Crypto, the crypto market has entered “Step 2” of his guide for 2025. The analyst pinpointed Ethereum (ETH) in his price chart, emphasizing that the second-largest cryptocurrency is set to decline further, in line with his earlier predictions. Step 2: Crypto Market Sells Off As ETH Goes Home Ethereum is currently experiencing widespread market sell-offs as investors react to its bearish price action and tightening liquidity conditions. Failing to meet investors’ expectations, the price of Ethereum has struggled to maintain strong momentum in this bull market. Related Reading: Crypto Market Remains Greedy Despite Bitcoin Price Crash To $94,000, Is A Recovery Coming? Cowen’s chart analysis suggests that the current downtrend aligns with the broader market cycle, where Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 60%, leading to capital flows from altcoins like Ethereum. The analyst announced that the crypto market is currently in the second phase of his guide for 2025’s market trajectory. In a previous X post on January 29, Cowen outlined a structured six-step roadmap for his 2025 market cycle theory. The first step highlights an increase in Bitcoin’s dominance to over 60%. This occurs when investors leave altcoins and move into Bitcoin, seeking stability amidst the volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market. During this time, Ethereum and most altcoins underperform due to the lack of interest and demand from investors. Now, in Step 2 of Cowen’s 2025 guide, the crypto market has entered a correction phase, with Ethereum declining sharply. Cowen claims that ETH will eventually “go home,” meaning the cryptocurrency will undergo a severe decline to long-term key support levels. In this second phase, the broader market also experiences a sell-off as investors take profit amidst volatility and ongoing declines in cryptocurrencies. Despite rising to $3,000 earlier in this bull market, Ethereum has failed to maintain positive momentum, recording steep declines as its price struggles to find stable support. According to data from CoinMarketCap, ETH is currently trading at $2,594, reflecting a massive 16.4% price crash in the last 24 hours. Over the past weeks, Ethereum has performed poorly, experiencing a sharp decline to new lows while other cryptocurrencies have gained momentum. The altcoin’s price has plunged to new lows, dropping by more than 27.6% in just a month. This downturn has also significantly impacted its market capitalization, which has fallen to $312.6 billion. Cowen’s 2025 Market Guide: What’s Next? In Step 3 of his market cycle theory for 2025, Cowen predicts that the Federal Reserve (FED) will shift its policy and end quantitative tightening, which has been draining liquidity from the financial markets. This decision is critical, as easing monetary conditions would pave the way for the analyst’s fourth step — a bullish phase fueled by market rallies. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ After Crash Toward $3,000 In the fifth step, Cowen predicts that macroeconomic conditions will deteriorate later in the year. This could include factors like inflation, interest rate, geopolitical stability, and others. The final step in his 2025 market cycle guide forecasts a full-blown recession. Cowen projects that this recession would lead to a bear market, aligning with historical midterm election year cycles, where markets tend to face deeper corrections. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
In the past few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has withstood two key developments that could have derailed the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. Given Bitcoin’s resilience, analysts are now predicting a new BTC all-time high (ATH) in the coming weeks. Bitcoin Defies DeepSeek Sell-Off, FOMC Uncertainty Earlier this week, US stocks took a hit after Chinese AI firm DeepSeek unveiled its open-source LLM, raising concerns over the high market valuation of its American counterparts. As a result, the S&P 500 saw a strong sell-off, with NVIDIA leading the losses, dropping 16% in a single day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid NASDAQ Decline, Analyst Calls It ‘Extremely Bullish’ Similarly, in its latest meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. While the hawkish stance was expected to deal another blow to crypto markets, BTC remained relatively unscathed after an initial dip. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $105,839, having essentially recouped all its losses from the DeepSeek-induced market crash. In fact, BTC has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five days, surging 1.53%, compared to the latter’s 1.25% decline. New BTC ATH In February? Seasoned crypto trader Pentoshi commented on BTC’s strength, saying that the digital asset has held up well despite the turmoil. The trader added that they see no reason why BTC shouldn’t hit a new ATH soon. Another Bitcoin enthusiast, Castillo Trading, noted that Bitcoin’s price structure “looks flawless.” They added that both lower- and higher-time frames suggest that BTC will likely go higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report In a similar vein, crypto trader and entrepreneur Michael van de Poppe said that the market will likely see a new BTC ATH in the ‘coming weeks,’ potentially hinting at February as the target month. Further, crypto trader Roman shared the following chart, commenting that “Stoch & RSI have plenty of room to break $108,000 resistance and head higher.” They added that bullish divergence on BTC is also playing out nicely. For the uninitiated, both Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) and Relative-Strength Index (RSI) are momentum indicators that help traders identify whether the underlying asset is oversold or overbought in current market conditions. While projections for a new BTC ATH may be focused on the short-term, market cycle peaks are expected to occur in the summer of 2025. For instance, a recent report by Bitfinex forecasts that BTC could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, amid shallow price pullbacks. Meanwhile DeepSeek predicts that BTC may top out between $500,000 and $600,000 by Q1 2026. At press time, BTC trades at $105,839, up 3.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
"The threshold has been a little higher for banks engaging in crypto activities and that's because they're so new," Powell said.
Bitcoin’s price traded flat on Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%.
Coinbase has strengthened its Global Advisory Council with four political and financial heavyweights, signaling a deeper push into policymaking.
The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged while sticking to December's hawkish forward guidance. BTC and risk assets could take cues from Powell's take on key issues like mass deportations and shelter inflation.
A U.S. House committee says it is investigating alleged debanking in the crypto industry, according to a recently published letter.
After a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made a swift recovery, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20. However, according to a crypto analyst, further upside could be limited until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Bitcoin To Remain Range-Bound Until FOMC Meeting The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been on a bullish trajectory since November, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Over the past three months, BTC has surged from approximately $67,000 to $104,536 at the time of writing, posting gains of over 50%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast Of $150,000 ‘Too Low’ Amid Rising Adoption, Crypto Trader Says However, crypto analyst Krillin predicts that BTC may continue to “chop” in the $100,000 to $110,000 range until the FOMC meeting. The analyst suggests that unless the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary policy measures, BTC is unlikely to break out of this range before the end of the month. At present, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Krillin expects a market dump to follow the anticipated hawkish meeting, which may be partially offset by a dovish-sounding press conference hinting at future quantitative easing (QE). For the uninitiated, QE is a monetary policy where central banks inject money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and other financial assets to lower interest rates and stimulate economic activity. This increased money supply can weaken fiat currencies, potentially driving investors toward assets like BTC, boosting its price as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Krillin’s prediction aligns with a recent market observation which states that BTC profit-taking has declined by 93% from its December peak, and that the long-term holders are back in accumulation mode, preparing for the next leg up. However, how long the current consolidation phase may last is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes a sharp decline in capital inflows into the digital assets market, from $134 billion on December 10 to $43.37 billion. This low liquidity could result in sharp price swings, increasing the risk of liquidations for leverage traders. Will BTC Peak In Q2 2025? As BTC awaits the FOMC meeting to determine its next price trend, some analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency could hit its market cycle peak in Q2 2025 as more institutions embrace the asset under favourable regulations. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report For example, crypto analyst Dave The Wave recently predicted that BTC will likely peak in the summer of 2025. A report by Bitfinex supports this outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, albeit with minor corrections along the way. That said, Bitcoin must defend the $100,000 price level, as failure to do so could see the asset drop to as low as $97,500. At press time, BTC trades at $104,536, up 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
“Higher-than-expected inflation could trigger equity market volatility, potentially dragging Bitcoin lower,” Bitfinex’ head of derivatives told Cointelegraph.
According to CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, Bitcoin (BTC) could target a price range between $145,000 and $249,000 in 2025. The report cites rising institutional capital inflows and favorable crypto regulations as key drivers of Bitcoin’s potential price appreciation. Bitcoin To Benefit From Increasing Institutional Flows Following a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this week, Bitcoin is now striving to reclaim the $100,000 price level. A recent report by CryptoQuant predicts that BTC could peak at $249,000 this year, supported by multiple favorable factors, including a pro-crypto stance from the Donald Trump administration in the US. Related Reading: Bitcoin Primed For A Major Rebound Following ‘Final Capitulation,’ Analyst Predicts The report suggests BTC will reach “at least” $145,000 in 2025, with the influx of fresh capital serving as the primary catalyst for this bullish momentum. Drawing from historical analysis of capital inflows during previous market cycles, the report estimates that $520 billion in new capital could enter Bitcoin markets this year. It states: In the context of a positive regulatory environment, accommodative monetary policy, and cyclical patterns, it is reasonable to expect capital will continue to flow into Bitcoin in 2025. The following chart illustrates Bitcoin’s realized market cap since 2015. For those unfamiliar, Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization represents the cumulative USD value of each BTC at the last point it moved on-chain. If the market follows historical patterns, then the $520 billion in fresh capital inflows to BTC could become a reality. This fresh capital injection could push BTC price to anywhere between $145,000 to $249,000, since the expansion in BTC’s realized capitalization has a more-than-proportional effect on the digital asset’s market value and price. The report highlights institutional investors – particularly addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC – as the primary contributors to the market’s capital inflows. These addresses largely represent institutional-grade custodial services and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Notably, institutional participants increased their Bitcoin holdings by $127 billion in 2024, reflecting robust confidence in the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential. Additionally, the final year of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is often associated with significant price surges for the asset. All Eyes On US Federal Reserve While many crypto analysts and market commentators maintain an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in 2025, some express caution regarding the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) delayed interest rate cuts amid inflation concerns and subdued retail investor participation. Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Hit Its Peak In Summer 2025? Analysts Weigh In For instance, a recent report by 10x Research noted that delayed interest rate cuts by the Fed could dampen BTC’s bullish momentum. Further, data from CME FedWatch indicates a 97.3% probability that the Fed will leave the rates untouched during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month. That said, asset manager Sygnum posits that BTC is likely to face demand shocks as more institutional investors embrace the emerging asset. At press time, BTC trades at $99,309, up 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Binance Open Interest surged approximately $500 million just two hours after the CPI results “brought smiles to the faces of crypto investors,” says an analyst.
Sustained outperformance may hinge on whether US President-elect Donald Trump implements pro-crypto policies once he takes office on Jan. 20.
A “power of 3” pattern popped up on Bitcoin’s chart, suggesting that prices above $100,000 will occur before President-elect Trump takes office.
Bitcoin futures markets may still be overheated, and a hotter-than-expected CPI could trigger further drawdowns, Steno said.
Risk assets trade weak as investment banks pare back Fed rate cuts in the wake of Friday's hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs report.
The upcoming US presidential inauguration could be a positive catalyst, the asset manager said.
In a recent blog post, serial crypto entrepreneur and commentator Arthur Hayes predicted that fresh liquidity injections into the US economy following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could spur a Bitcoin (BTC) rally in Q1 2025. Money Printing To Propel Bitcoin? Despite surging past $100,000 on January 6, BTC faced a sharp decline to as low as $94,543 earlier today, casting doubt on the so-called “Trump rally” that many expected to last until Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Surge To $200,000 By Mid-2025 Amid ‘Mild’ Price Pullbacks: Report Recent market action aligns with Hayes’ December forecast, in which he warned of a potential “harrowing dump” in the cryptocurrency market around Trump’s inauguration. At the time, Hayes attributed this predicted sell-off to perceived regulatory disappointments from the incoming Trump administration. However, in his latest post, Hayes suggested that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to inject $612 billion of fresh liquidity into the economy could make up for the lack of regulatory progress and ignite new bullish momentum for BTC. The BitMex co-founder remarked: A letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter. Hayes explained that the Fed is expected to ramp up money printing after Trump’s inauguration, likely driving BTC and other digital assets to a local top before a subsequent pullback. He added that market disappointment over lagging crypto regulation under Trump’s administration would exacerbate the correction. The crypto entrepreneur advised selling towards the end of Q1 2025 and waiting for favorable liquidity conditions to return in Q3 2025. Once fresh liquidity enters the market, Hayes suggested it would be time for risk-seeking investors to “turn the risk dial to degen.” Opinion Split On BTC Price Action While Hayes anticipates a BTC rally later this quarter, other analysts and market commentators remain cautious. For instance, a recent report by 10x Research noted that the Fed’s delay in cutting interest rates could dampen BTC’s bullish momentum. Similarly, technical analysis suggests that BTC may be forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, raising fears of a drawdown to as low as $80,000. Yesterday’s failure to decisively reclaim the $100,000 price level has further unsettled the bulls. On the other hand, the CEO of Bitcoin mining firm MARA recently advocated a long-term “invest and forget” strategy for BTC. He suggested that a US strategic Bitcoin reserve could spark a global race among nations to accumulate BTC, driving up its price. Institutional interest in BTC is already on the rise, as evident from record inflows received by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF). At press time, BTC trades at $95,154, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com