On decentralized prediction markets platform Polymarket, Waller currently has a 15% chance of being nominated as the next chair.
Powell’s decisions as Fed chair have continued to have a massive impact on bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency markets.
The Wyoming-based cryptocurrency bank argued that the three-judge panel undermined state banking authorities, raising “serious constitutional questions”
Hassett is perceived as dovish and likely to support Trump's calls for significant interest rate cuts to boost economic growth.
The Bitcoin’s behavior around US Federal Reserve announcements has become one of the most consistent market patterns of the year. After every FOMC update, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has reacted with a noticeable downside move, underscoring how closely the asset is now tied to shifting interest-rate expectations and broader macro sentiment. What Future FOMC Meetings Could Mean For Bitcoin In an X post, analyst CryptoMichNL has mentioned that the Federal Reserve (FED) is preparing to update the printer from 2021 liquidity settings toward a more supportive 2025 stance. However, this doesn’t mean it will have an immediate impact on the markets, as these things take time. As a result of the update, Bitcoin has dropped after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, but these moves are primarily aimed at flushing out longs through high liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal According to the expert, the actual move on the markets and the direction should come in the next 1-2 weeks, which would give a better outlook going into 2026. The bullish trend has remained intact, and the thesis is still valid. However, BTC shouldn’t break the lows during the FOMC flush. Instead, it should break the $92,000 resistance zone to retest the $100,000 level. Bitcoin is still moving in a choppy pattern, driven by illiquid order books and fast moves in both directions. CryptoMichNL has also highlighted that BTC is still in for a new upward breakout in the coming days to weeks. Despite the volatility, BTC has continued to form higher lows, which is a clear sign that an upward structure is building. CryptoMichNL noted that, as the price doesn’t break down anymore, the heavy correction in the market was highly manipulated and not organic, which is very natural for the market to return to normal. Why Bitcoin Market Structure Remains Intact Despite Deep Pullback Bitcoin has not proven to be any different from the cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the good initial bounce is right off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is taken from the entire cycle move. Realistically, that was the lowest the price could go without breaking the broader weekly market structure. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 According to Daan, the invalidation is clearly the higher-timeframe outlook, and the November lows would become a very uncomfortable place for the bulls. As the year comes to an end, a lot of the 4-year cycle selling should also be diminishing. Meanwhile, Q1 2026 is shaping up to be extremely important as it will likely reveal where the BTC cycle will move next. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto markets saw a modest lift after the US Federal Reserve made another move on rates, and traders are watching for a clearer follow-through. According to reports, the Fed has carried out three consecutive interest rate cuts totaling 0.75% from September to December. The move was widely expected. Still, market responses have been mixed and somewhat choppy. Related Reading: American Bitcoin Makes Big Buy, Adds 416 BTC To Its Stack Fed Moves And Market Takeaway According to CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko, much of the Fed’s action was already priced in, and the updated dot plot leaned a bit more hawkish than some had hoped. Ko pointed to $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases as a technical step to ease liquidity and lower short-term rates, not as a broad stimulus program. Markets took the measures as mildly positive. US stocks rose, and that helped Bitcoin find some footing after an early dip. Santiment And The Short-Term Reaction Based on reports from onchain analytics firm Santiment, each cut has prompted a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” move where initial optimism is followed by short selling. ???????? The US Fed made three strategic cuts over the past 3 months, resulting in a total of an 0.75% reduction to interest rates. 1⃣ September 17, 2025: Fed lowered the target range to 4.00 %–4.25 % (from 4.25 %+) at the 16–17 Sep meeting. 2⃣ October 29, 2025: Fed cut the rate to… pic.twitter.com/X6DWypvq5t — Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 11, 2025 Cuts are seen as bullish for crypto over the long haul, yet they have triggered brief pullbacks in practice. Santiment adds that a small wave of FUD or retail selling often signals that the mild post-cut downswing is finished and a bounce may follow once things calm down. Technical Levels Traders Are Watching Bitcoin was volatile in the aftermath. It fell under $90,000 then popped to $93,500 on Coinbase before settling near $92,300 at the time of reporting. Key resistance sits between $97,000 and $108,000. On the daily chart, BTC remains inside a small rising channel that sits within a larger downtrend, and technical traders note that a MACD histogram is approaching a positive crossover — a sign some see as possible renewed momentum. ETF activity has been tepid, with only $219 million in net inflows since late November, which keeps some investors cautious. Related Reading: Is Dogecoin Waking Up? Critical On-Chain Metric Explodes Higher Dollar Weakness And Equity Signals A weaker dollar has been part of the backdrop; the DXY index fell to 98.36 and is showing bearish momentum on its own MACD. Nasdaq’s move back above its 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages helped lift risk assets briefly, and that has supported Bitcoin’s rebound attempts. Yet correlation with equities remains uneven — losses in stocks tend to hit Bitcoin harder than gains help it, creating an asymmetric risk profile for traders. Featured image from Impossible Images, chart from TradingView
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day. These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion. Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000. Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Traders are shifting expectations, with futures markets pricing a nearly 40% chance of another cut by March despite the Fed’s cautious tone.
Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support. How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies. Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious. CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price. On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Settles In Consolidation Zone – Levels To Watch Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The anticipated move comes as policymakers are still operating without several key economic data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the U.S. government shutdown.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Markets are focused on Powell's speech, as six of seven FOMC meetings this year were followed by bitcoin sell-offs, analysts said.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin appears pinned near $90,000 ahead of the FOMC, with analysts arguing that Powell’s guidance will dictate crypto’s next major move.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut U.S. interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
Ethereum is gaining momentum, and several technical signals suggest that a significant move could be on the way. With key support levels holding and bullish patterns forming, the market may be setting up for a notable upside. Golden Pocket Rejection: Confirming The High-Risk Scenario In a recent update on X, analyst Luca referenced his recent market commentary, noting that Ethereum price action unfolded exactly as he had anticipated, with the price tapping into the lost high-timeframe support range. This range aligned with the golden pocket between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, and the price rejected there, confirming the high-risk scenario he had highlighted in advance. Related Reading: Ethereum Coils For A Breakout As IH&S + Heavy Accumulation Emerges Since that rejection, the price has broken below the key 0.618 Fibonacci Point of Interest (POI). However, the asset is still managing to hold above the crucial 1-Day Bull Market Support Band. Luca stressed that this band has historically served as a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months. Thus, he believes the current low-timeframe market structure is not yet fully invalidated. Despite this technical hold, the analyst reiterated his cautious approach, stating that until he sees clear signs of strength on the low-timeframes, signs that can durably confirm the bottom is in and that key support levels are properly reclaimed, he won’t scale out of his edges. Luca concluded that until that concrete bullish confirmation materializes, the most likely outcome for the immediate future remains further consolidation. The market needs time to absorb the recent volatility and build a new base before a more durable reversal to the upside can take hold. ETH/BTC Trendline Breakout: Market Risk Appetite Returns Crypto analyst Paramatik outlined that a major structural event has occurred on the ETH/BTC charts: a falling trend breakout. This is a highly significant development, although Paramatik suggests that a retest of this broken trendline may occur before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Related Reading: Ethereum Is Sitting On Its Most Critical On-Chain Support Level — A Rally Emerging? The analyst provided clarity on what this breakout means for the broader market. First and foremost, this situation is interpreted as a strengthening signal for Ethereum. When ETH begins to gain value relative to Bitcoin, it typically indicates that the market’s overall risk appetite is returning, as investors shift capital from BTC to ETH. Secondly, the gained strength in Ethereum is often the key trigger for the start of the much-anticipated altcoin season. This is because investors first shift funds from BTC to ETH, and then move capital into the riskier, smaller altcoins in hopes of achieving higher returns. Paramatik summarized his findings by stating that this breakout in the ETH/BTC pair is not merely a technical line break; it is a harbinger of a market direction change. The analyst concluded with an analogy that the market has reached a state where every external event, even humorously irrelevant ones, could affect crypto prices. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
The Federal Reserve has officially brought its multi-year quantitative tightening program to a close, freezing its balance sheet at about $6.57 trillion after draining more than $2.3 trillion from the system since 2022. The Federal Reserve’s decision to formally end quantitative tightening has created a sense of anticipation across the crypto market. Liquidity inflows have shaped every major crypto cycle, and removing the multi-year drain on liquidity is expected to set the stage for healthier crypto market conditions and see the Bitcoin price push above $100,000 in the coming days. Policy Shift Meets A Market Still Searching For Direction The Fed has frozen its balance sheet at roughly $6.57 trillion after three years of balance-sheet reduction. Treasury runoff has stopped on December 1, though mortgage-backed securities will continue declining slowly. Related Reading: Finance Expert Says Bitcoin Price Growth Is In ‘Google 2017’ Phase, What This Means Ending QT means that the Fed is stepping away from the rapid balance-sheet reduction that tightened financial conditions throughout 2023 and 2024. The move comes after bank reserves fell to levels that threatened short-term funding stability, and the Fed made the move to halt any further liquidity drain. Crypto investors are expecting the end of QT to relieve some of the selling pressure that has contributed to the crypto industry in recent months. This is due to historical comparisons of how the industry played out in previous ends to QT. In 2019, when the Fed last ended QT, digital assets bottomed within weeks and then entered a strong recovery phase. That period represented a decisive low for altcoins and preceded Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $3,800 to $29,000 over the next year and a half. Interestingly, the entire crypto market’s short-term behavior is starting to show signs of bullishness. Particularly, the entire market is up by 7.2% in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin leading the charge. However, cryptocurrencies are facing a different macro environment today, and the outlook is whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can go on another extended bullish rally in the coming months. Why Is Bitcoin’s Reaction Delayed? Ending QT is a meaningful turning point, but it does not automatically flood the system with fresh liquidity. Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, offers one of the clearest explanations for what to expect. Related Reading: Financial Strategist Debunks Prediction That Bitcoin Price Will Reach $220,000 In 45 Days He noted that in 2019, the Fed announced QT would end on August 1, but the balance sheet continued falling through mid-August because previously scheduled Treasury maturities had not yet settled. It wasn’t until early 2020 that Bitcoin started to experience explosive gains. According to Cowen, the same dynamic applies now. Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could continue edging lower for a few more weeks, meaning the first meaningful uptick in liquidity may not show up until early 2026. This delay suggests that traders hoping for an immediate boost or a quick return of Bitcoin above $100,000 are simply ahead of the cycle. The tightening phase has ended, but the actual recovery in liquidity has yet to begin. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Upcoming U.S. policy changes, 401(k) access, and pro-crypto regulatory momentum create a stronger medium-term backdrop for bitcoin, K33 said.
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has revealed a historical bearish pattern that could send the Bitcoin price to as low as $42,000. This bearish outlook for BTC comes amid a rebound for the flagship crypto, with a recent surge above the psychological $90,000 level. Bitcoin Price Risks 50% Drop To $42,000 Based On This Pattern In an X post, Severino stated that the Bitcoin price likes to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its impulse. Based on this, the analyst indicated that BTC could crash to as low as $42,000 on wave C of this move to the downside. His accompanying chart showed that this decline could happen sometime at the start of next year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Can Hit These ‘Realistic’ Bullish Targets Before The Bear Market Begins This bearish Bitcoin price prediction comes amid BTC’s rebound above $90,000 following the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The flagship crypto has also rebounded amid optimism of another rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows there is almost a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates again this month. However, despite these macro positives for the Bitcoin price, analysts such as Tony Severino have suggested that BTC is in a bear market and is likely to trend lower in the coming months. In an X post, he highlighted the BTC monthly chart, suggesting it showed a subtle volume breakout that confirmed a “not-so-subtle” trendline breakdown. Meanwhile, market technician JT described statements that the QT ending is bullish for the Bitcoin price as being a “fallacy.” He alluded to the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may hike rates this month as one of the stressors to liquidity beyond QT. Peter Brandt Predicts Drop To Mid $40ks In an X post, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin price could drop to mid $40,000. He stated that the upper boundary of the lower green zone starts below $70,000 and that the lower support boundary is in the mid $40,000. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted that BTC could drop to around $50,000 before it then rallies to around $200,000 in the next bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The veteran analyst noted that there have been five major bull market cycles for the Bitcoin price since its inception. He further stated that in all previous cycles, the violation of the dominant parabolic advance has been followed by a 75% plus correction with no exception. As such, he expects BTC to undergo another significant correction in this cycle, potentially dropping below $50,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $93,000, up almost 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Macro strategist Alex Krüger is tying Bitcoin’s next macro chapter directly to the coming reshuffle at the Federal Reserve, warning that investors are underpricing how far US rates could fall under a Trump-aligned central bank. In a long X post titled “2026: The Year of the Fed’s Regime Change,” he argues that “the Federal Reserve as we know it ends in 2026” and that the most important driver of asset returns will be a new, much more dovish Fed led by Kevin Hassett. His base case is that this shift becomes a key driver for risk assets broadly and Bitcoin in particular in 2026, even if crypto markets are currently trading as if nothing fundamental has changed. Why The Federal Reserve Will Dramatically Change Krüger’s scenario is anchored in personnel. He notes that prediction platform Kalshi put the odds of Hassett becoming chair at 70% as of 2 December, and describes him as a supply-side loyalist who “champions a ‘growth-first’ philosophy, arguing that with the inflation war largely won, maintaining high real rates is an act of political obstinacy rather than economic prudence.” A few hours after Krüger’s thread, Trump himself added fuel, telling reporters at the White House that he would announce his Fed pick “early next year” and explicitly teasing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possible choice, after saying the search had been narrowed down to one candidate. Related Reading: The December Bitcoin Roadmap: The Signals You Can’t Ignore To explain how this would translate into policy, Krüger reconstructs Hassett’s stance from his own 2024 comments. On 21 November, Hassett said “the only way to explain a Fed decision not to cut in December would be due to anti-Trump partisanship.” Earlier he argued, “If I’m at the FOMC, I’m more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely,” adding, “I agree with Trump that rates can be a lot lower.” Across the year he endorsed expected rate cuts as merely “a start,” called for the Fed to “keep cutting rates aggressively,” and supported “much lower rates,” leading Krüger to place him at 2 on a 1–10 dove–hawk scale, with 1 being the most dovish. Institutionally, Krüger maps a concrete path: Hassett would first be nominated as a Fed governor to replace Stephen Miran when his short term expires in January, then elevated to chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Powell, he assumes, follows precedent by resigning his remaining Board seat after pre-announcing his departure, opening a slot for Kevin Warsh, whom Krüger treats not as a rival but as a like-minded ally who has been “campaigning” for a structural overhaul and arguing that an AI-driven productivity boom is inherently disinflationary. In that configuration, Hassett, Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman form a solidly dovish core, with six other officials seen as movable votes and only two clear hawks on the committee. The main institutional tail risk, in Krüger’s view, is that Powell does not resign his governor seat. He warns that this would be “extremely bearish,” because it would prevent Warsh’s appointment and leave Powell as a “shadow chair,” a rival focal point for FOMC loyalty outside Hassett’s inner circle. He also stresses that the Fed chair has no formal tie-breaking vote; repeated 7–5 splits on 50-basis-point cuts would look “institutionally corrosive,” while a 6–6 tie or a 4–8 vote against cuts “would be a catastrophe,” turning the publication of FOMC minutes into an even more potent market event. On rates, Krüger argues that both the official dot plot and market pricing understate how far policy could be pushed lower. The September median projection of 3.4% for December 2026 is, he says, “a mirage,” because it includes non-voting hawks; by re-labeling dots based on public statements, he estimates the true voters’ median closer to 3.1%. Substituting Hassett and Warsh for Powell and Miran, and using Miran and Waller as proxies for an aggressive-cuts stance, he finds a bimodal distribution with a dovish cluster around 2.6%, where he “anchors” the new leadership, while noting that Miran’s preferred “appropriate rate” of 2.0%–2.5% suggests an even lower bias. Related Reading: Bitcoin Blasts To $92,000, Liquidating $182 Million In Shorts As of 2 December, Krüger notes, futures price December 2026 fed funds at about 3.02%, implying roughly 40 basis points of additional downside if his path is realized. If Hassett’s supply-side view is right and AI-driven productivity pushes inflation below consensus forecasts, Krüger expects pressure for deeper cuts to avoid “passive tightening” as real rates rise. He frames the likely outcome as a “reflationary steepening”: front-end yields collapsing as aggressive easing is priced in, while the long end stays elevated on higher nominal growth and lingering inflation risk. What This Means For Bitcoin That mix, he argues, is explosive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Hassett “would crush the real discount rate,” fueling a multiple-expansion “melt-up” in growth equities, at the cost of a possible bond-market revolt if long yields spike in protest. A politically aligned Fed that explicitly prioritizes growth over inflation targeting is, in Krüger’s words, textbook bullish for hard assets such as gold, which he expects to outperform Treasuries as investors hedge the risk of a 1970s-style policy error. Bitcoin, in Krüger’s telling, should be the cleanest expression of this shift but is currently trapped in its own psychology. Since what he calls the “10/10 shock,” he says Bitcoin has developed “a brutal downside skew,” fading macro rallies and crashing on bad news amid “4-year cycle” top fears and an “identity crisis.” Even so, he concludes that the combination of a Hassett-led Fed and Trump’s deregulation agenda would “override the dominant self-fulfilling bearish psychology, in 2026” — a macro repricing he insists “markets aren’t ready” for yet. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,862 Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
After passing a major stablecoin bill into law, Congress is racing to write the rules, with one lawmaker urging them to move quickly.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin bulls' hopes for rate cuts to lower bond yields and the dollar are challenged by signals from the Treasury and the FX market.
In a strategic move, Tether has shifted its reserve strategy, reducing its exposure to treasuries while increasing allocations to Bitcoin and gold. The USDT issuer has shown a notable reduction in government debt exposure, paired with an expanded position in hard assets known for durability and independence from traditional financial systems. Treasury Exposure Drops Amid Changing Macro And Regulatory Landscape Stablecoin giant, Tether, has reduced its US Treasury holdings and increased its Gold and Bitcoin reserves. CryptosRus reported on X that Tether is quietly repositioning itself for what the company expects to be the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next round of rate cuts. Related Reading: Rumble At The Core: How Tether Plans To Dominate The US Stablecoin Market According to BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, Tether’s latest reserve update shows a clear shift away from the US treasuries and deeper into BTC and gold, a sign that the company is positioning for a changing macro environment. Furthermore, the Standard & Poor (S&P) Global noted that Tether is now leaning more heavily into assets with larger price swings in value, warning that this mix could expose USDT if markets turn volatile. Meanwhile, the current S&P Global rating on Tether remains weak. Thus, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has pushed back, saying that the company holds no toxic assets. He claims that its rapid growth reflects a broader shift towards new financial systems that operate outside the traditional banking world. Why Attempts To Break Tether Are Difficult In Practice Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has also offered insight into the Tether Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) as it is making its usual rounds again. The narrative is latching onto the company’s latest attestation, showing a notable shift into Gold and Bitcoin to offset declining interest income. Meanwhile, if these risk assets drop by 30%, Tether’s equity buffer could evaporate, creating an environment where Tether will be insolvent, and panic will kick in. Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans However, Ted is steadfast and believes that Tether has been through a decade of this same FUD, and USDT is still sitting at $1.00. They’re fully liquid, but they operate on a fractional-reserve model, much like traditional banks. As long as redemptions remain normal, everything will work smoothly. A problem will only arise if there’s an irrational panic, and then liquidity stress could hit quickly. According to Ted, the USDT isn’t fully backed by cash, but it’s backed by a diverse portfolio that includes the US treasuries, yield-generating assets, and some risk assets. This is all scaled to a massive $174 billion stablecoin. “If someone wants to kill USDT, it’s possible, but I highly doubt it,” Ted noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
FDIC Acting Chairman Travis Hill is set to testify at a House hearing that his agency is ready to propose a stablecoin application rule before the month is out.
House Republicans criticized what they described as the Biden administration’s "coordinated attack" on digital assets.
The inflows marked a rebound following a four-week negative streak totaling $5.7 billion, but came ahead of the latest market slump on Monday.
Bitcoin has not grown at the rapid rate expected so far in the cycle, and some have blamed this on the fact that the Federal Reserve has been practicing quantitative tightening. This refers to a period when the central bank is reducing its money supply in a bid to reel in excess liquidity. As a result, buying power seems to have fallen as there isn’t enough liquidity flowing into risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, this could all be changing very soon as the Fed begins to change its stance. Quantitative Easing Could Bring About More Liquidity After a long stretch of quantitative tightening, the Fed’s recent comments suggest that there is a move toward quantitative easing. This is expected to happen sometime in December, and it could trigger a massive shift as the market looks to close another year. Quantitative easing, as the name suggests, is the opposite of quantitative tightening, and the former sees the Fed pump liquidity into the market. This rush in liquidity could lead to investors taking more risks, and this, in turn, would be good for assets like Bitcoin as investors move into the crypto market for the long term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The announcement for a move to quantitative easing is expected to come on December 1, and naturally, there have been debates on its impact on the Bitcoin price. Crypto analyst and investor Ted Pillows shared a chart showing that the last time the Fed ended quantitative tightening in 2019, the Bitcoin price had suffered a notable crash. The post suggests that this could be the case as the Fed makes its move in less than two weeks. However, this point has been countered by another crypto analyst, who pointed out the differences between what happened in 2019 and what is going on in 2025. Why This Time Could Be Different For Bitcoin In a response to Pillows, pseudonymous crypto analyst Sykodelic outlined that one of the very first reasons the Bitcoin price won’t crash with the announcement of quantitative easing is the fact that the Fed overdid it in 2019. According to the post, the Fed overdid quantitative tightening, which led to the 2019 repo crisis. Related Reading: Ethereum Price To Recover Or Crash? The Real ‘Leverage Point’ Investors Should Know About However, this time around, while the reserves are low, they haven’t reached danger territory. Also, with a $2 trillion fiscal deficit, the analyst explains that the US will have no choice but to stimulate the economy with liquidity, or else it risks going bankrupt. Since the Bitcoin price already had a major drop, reaching record-breaking MACD levels, the analyst believes the chances of a drop are low. “If you are betting on a year long bear market you are basically betting that the USA will let itself go broke,” the analyst said. “There is simply no room left for the FED to turn.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com