Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's call for the Fed to hold off on rate cuts reflects a problem that reaches far beyond Washington: war-driven inflation is keeping the door to cheaper money shut. Reuters reported that Bessent urged caution because the Iran conflict is lifting fuel costs and complicating the inflation outlook. The Fed's own March […]
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A subtle shift in US payment infrastructure could be opening an unexpected door for XRP. The latest proposal from the Federal Reserve to expand FedNow capabilities is sparking new conversations across the digital asset space, and XRP may be quietly entering the spotlight. Ripple’s Vision Aligns With Evolving Payment Infrastructure A transformative shift is unfolding in the US payment infrastructure, one that could impact Ripple and the role of XRP. Analyst XFinanceBull has revealed on X that the Federal Reserve has proposed expanding FedNow to allow banks and credit unions to use intermediaries for fund transfers. Related Reading: XRP Might Be The Most Recognizable Names In RWA, But Is It The Leader? Here Are The Numbers This move goes beyond the current limitation of direct transfers strictly between two US banks. Furthermore, the proposal could open the door for intermediaries to help bridge and facilitate the international side of the payment. XFinanceBull highlighted that Ripple National Trust Bank has already been conditionally approved by the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This charter would allow Ripple to custody digital assets, offer lending services, and gain direct access to the Federal Reserve System, such as FedNow for instant payments. The next step is the Fed Master Account application, which would directly connect a chartered bank to the Federal Reserve’s payment systems. Ripple is still waiting on this approval, and this is not speculation. Furthermore, research published in a peer-reviewed journal by the Financial Planning Association has explored how Ripple and XRP are building the bridge for cross-border transactions. It specifically noted that possible integration points include systems like FedNow access and participation in the discount window for liquidity support. By connecting the dots, the Fed is expanding FedNow to support cross-border payments through intermediaries, and Ripple already has a conditionally approved national bank charter. The Fed Master Account is the final piece that would connect Ripple directly to the Fed’s instant payment infrastructure. Meanwhile, over 300 financial institutions have been reported to be using it, adopting, or exploring XRP. At the same time, Ripple’s involvement with global institutions such as the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements underscores its focus on interoperability within the existing digital money. XFinanceBull concluded that this is not about replacing the system, but about becoming part of it. The Fed has just opened the door, and Ripple may already be holding the conditional key, waiting for final approval to step fully into the system. How XRP Enables Instant Currency Conversion XRP is rapidly redefining how value moves across the global financial system. An Ambassador known as Ledger Man has stated that XRP functions as a powerful bridge currency, capable of converting local currencies such as the Iraqi Dinar, Vietnamese Dong, and Venezuelan Bolivar into US dollars with speed, efficiency, and full transparency. Related Reading: Ripple Introduces New System To Merge Corporate Finance And Digital Assets With the system already going live through partnerships with firms like Temenos, this could be the future of digital banking and cross-border payments. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Washington is in a generous mood with its banks. In March, federal regulators unveiled a sweeping overhaul of capital requirements (the financial cushions that banks must hold to absorb losses in hard times), and the headlines wrote themselves: deregulation, relief, billions freed up for lending and buybacks. The proposal would cut the required capital for […]
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Crypto pundit Chad has drawn a connection between Ripple and XRP with SWIFT. This comes as Ripple continues to expand its payment services and other operations, further integrating XRP and RLUSD into traditional finance (TradFi). Pundit Draws Attention To The Connection Between Ripple And XRP In an X post, Chad noted that Ripple Treasury and XRP are now connected directly to SWIFT. This came as he highlighted Ripple’s listing of SWIFT as one of its connectivity partners for payments. The treasury management firm stated that it is part of the SWIFT Certified Partner Program. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Shares What To Expect Once Ripple Taps This $12.5 Trillion Industry As part of the SWIFT Certified Partner Program, Ripple Treasury stated that it offers global bank connectivity and hosting options for SWIFT’s Alliance Lite2 platform. As part of the Ripple, XRP connection with SWIFT, Ripple Treasury has also partnered to offer SWIFTRef data for IBAN and ABA lookups directly from within its workflow. Additionally, Ripple Treasury has partnered with Fides, which works closely with platforms such as SWIFT. Fides helps Ripple Treasury to extend multi-bank connectivity to customers around the globe. Meanwhile, Chad also pointed out how Ripple and XRP, by proxy, are basically integrated into the financial system. This is through Ripple Treasury’s ClearConnect connectivity layer, which provides connectivity to banks worldwide. The pundit noted that for any bank not yet connected, it now takes only 7 days to install the API and connect. At the moment, Ripple Treasury is connected to NetSuite, Oracle, SAP, Infor, Workday, and MS Dynamics. It is worth noting that this Ripple Treasury’s connectivity layer enables customers who hold crypto assets across multiple platforms to connect to these providers, so they can view their entire portfolio on their treasury management system without needing separate systems. Acquiring GTreasury Was Ripple’s Biggest Move In another X post, Chad stated that GTreasury was the “single biggest move” that Ripple has ever made. This came as he alluded to Ripple’s latest move to launch the first management system with native on-chain capabilities. This move integrates XRP and RLUSD into the Ripple Treasury, allowing customers to use these crypto assets in the same environment as fiat. Related Reading: Why SWIFT’s Latest Global Payments Infrastructure Is Bullish For XRP Holders The pundit remarked that Ripple doesn’t need the CLARITY Act to operate, as the crypto firm continues to integrate XRP into mainstream finance. It is worth noting that Ripple is also close to becoming a national trust bank, which could further give the crypto firm access to the U.S. banking system. Additionally, the firm has applied for a Fed Master account, which would enable it to use the Federal Reserve’s payment rails for its stablecoin operations. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.31, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Even the safest corners of the market can start to look uneasy when oil jumps, war drags on, and investors begin to wonder whether inflation is heading back in the wrong direction. That was the message we got from Tuesday’s sale of 2-year US Treasuries. These are short-term government bonds, and they're widely watched because […]
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The Federal Reserve has shaken the global scenario after Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike could still happen if tensions in the Middle East increase. He added that decisions will be made meeting by meeting. This comes even as many expected the central bank to start cutting rates. While no final decision has been …
A crypto analyst who previously warned traders and investors that the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price surge could be a fluke has shared a new update. Confirming that his earlier prediction was accurate, the analyst now provides insight on where Bitcoin is really headed as it continues to navigate the ongoing bear market. Where The Bitcoin Price Is Headed Next DeFi researcher and market analyst Sherlock has taken to X to share a fresh update on an analysis he published earlier last week. In this new report, Sherlock presented a rather foreboding Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is heading toward new lows around $53,000 soon. Related Reading: Pundit Shares Everything To Understand About Bitcoin, ‘This Cycle IS Different’ He emphasized that the $53,000 level was not a random bearish target but a point established after multiple data signals converged, which also corresponds to Bitcoin’s next weekly support level. According to Sherlock, Bitcoin’s record high last week near $76,000 was a deviation he had anticipated despite some traders hoping that the rebound could become a sustainable breakout. The analyst noted that the weekly candle on the chart is expected to confirm this deviation trend if it closes below $72,500. Sherlock also drew parallels to a January price movement, when the Bitcoin price climbed to $94,500 before crashing by approximately 38%. Usually, in crypto market terms, this type of action is called a “fakeout,” which is when the price briefly breaches key resistance levels, enticing traders to enter positions, before rapidly reversing in the opposite direction. Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $68,100, more than 10% below its previous high of $76,000 set last week. The cryptocurrency suffered a sharp, unexpected collapse in a single day following reports of a hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve (FED). After briefly dipping toward the $70,000 level that day, Bitcoin has continued on a downward trajectory. Data from CoinMarketCap also indicate that BTC’s decline was further accelerated by a surge in geopolitical tensions, after US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, triggering a broader sell-off across risk assets. A Look Back At BTC’s $76,000 Fluke In his previous analysis, Sherlock had cautioned traders not to get baited by short-term Bitcoin price spikes. He noted that during the last major deviation in January 2026, many traders went long, only to incur significant losses after Bitcoin’s price collapsed over the next five weeks. Related Reading: Is This The Bitcoin Price Bottom Or A Fakeout? Analyst Reveals When You Shouldn’t Be Excited The analyst had warned that if Bitcoin fails to close above $74,500 on the weekly chart, its brief rebound would be nothing more than a deviation, not a true breakout. Sherlock added that, with the FOMC meeting last week and market consensus expecting another interest-rate pause, the outlook for Bitcoin is far from bullish. He described Bitcoin’s previous rebound as a trap, likely engineered to lure investors and traders into long positions prematurely. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s fear gauge plunged back into “Extreme Fear” on Wednesday — the same day traders flooded social media with bullish calls following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady. Related Reading: Ripple’s $500M Raise And Institutional Ties Keep XRP Firmly In Place Sentiment Shoots Up Despite Grim Market Signals The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely tracked measure of overall market mood, had briefly climbed into plain “Fear” territory the day before, only to reverse course hours later. Yet traders appeared unfazed. According to sentiment platform Santiment, bullish chatter on social media spiked hard after the Fed announced it would keep rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75%. The platform’s social media discussion score shot from roughly nine to 71 within hours of the announcement. Bitcoin itself told a different story. It was trading at around $70,150 at the time of the Fed’s announcement, down more than 4% in the prior 24 hours. ???????? Today’s FOMC meeting has resulted in the expected outcome of interest rates holding steady at 3.50-3.75%. There is an expectation that there will be one further cut sometime in 2026, and one in 2027. ???? For now, traders are expecting a bullish relief rally in spite of no… pic.twitter.com/oBqLTcv3Ni — Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 18, 2026 Traders See Rate Hold As A Window For Gains Santiment attributed the surge in positive sentiment to a simple shift in trader thinking. The bearish price action tied to the absence of rate cuts had already played out a day earlier, the platform said, leaving room for traders to reframe the unchanged rate decision as a net positive. Holding rates steady, the logic goes, at least keeps the door open for cuts down the road. Fed policy has long shaped how crypto market participants read the broader economic environment. Rate cuts, in particular, are seen as fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin. Reports indicate traders had been watching the Fed’s moves closely throughout 2025 as a potential trigger for a bull run that never fully materialized. The S&P 500 has shed 3.70% over the past 30 days, according to Google Finance data, adding pressure to an already skittish crypto market. Analysts Warn A False Rally Could Be Taking Shape Not everyone is buying the optimism. Onchain analysts warned that what looks like an uptrend could be a bull trap — a false signal that draws buyers in before prices reverse lower. Related Reading: XRP Moves Into ‘Scarce Zone’ As Exchange Supply Dries Up Some market observers expect Bitcoin and the broader market to stage a sharp rally once equities find a floor. Others made a similar call earlier this week, saying on X that a “massive rally” is coming in the months ahead. The divide among analysts reflects how unsettled conditions remain. Social media buzz has spiked, but the fear index says something else entirely. Whether the rally traders are counting on shows up — or fades before it starts — remains an open question. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day FOMC meeting on March 17, with Chair Jerome Powell set to speak today at 2:30 p.m. ET after the rate decision. Markets are watching closely, not just for today’s decision, but for any hint of future rate cuts. What to Expect From Powell’s Speech? The Fed’s benchmark interest …
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (11:30 p.m. IST), followed by Chair Jerome Powell speaking at 2:30 p.m. ET (12:00 a.m. IST). The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets will focus on Powell’s comments on inflation, jobs, and global tensions. Earlier, February’s PPI …
The cryptocurrency market is entering a tense moment as investors turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for tomorrow. While economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, traders across crypto and traditional markets are watching closely for signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about inflation …
FOMC Meeting Countdown Begins! The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is scheduled for Tuesday, and policymakers gather for the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While markets are almost certain about the immediate outcome, uncertainty remains about what the central bank will signal for the rest of the year. Recent economic data show why …
Washington has spent years talking about a US CBDC as a distant possibility. It was an abstract policy idea, safely contained inside white papers and partisan messaging. But then the Senate put a number on it and made it very real. On March 2, senators voted 84-6 to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed […]
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February’s CPI report gave markets a reason to relax. Inflation looked soft enough to keep hopes for rate cuts alive, with consumer prices up 0.3% on the month and 2.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI rose 0.2% in the month and 2.5% annually. Shelter kept cooling, and the overall picture looked manageable for […]
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Washington is getting ready to potentially make life easier for the biggest US banks. That can sound pretty abstract if you don't strip it down to the mechanics. Regulators decide how much capital banks must keep to absorb losses and how much liquidity they need if funding starts to disappear. More capital and more liquidity […]
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Fresh U.S. labor market data has intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon move toward rate cuts after the economy shed around 92,000 jobs, signaling cooling employment conditions. The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics pushed unemployment to roughly 4.4%, raising concerns about a broader slowdown. Following the report, Michelle Bowman acknowledged the …
Arthur Hayes was wrong before. In December, the BitMEX co-founder predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t. Bitcoin is trading near $71,000. Hayes is now calling for $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of the year, and his reasoning runs straight through the Middle East. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% War, Spending, And The Fed Hayes argues that a prolonged US military conflict involving Iran would put severe pressure on federal finances. As government spending climbs, he believes policymakers would face little choice but to cut interest rates and pump more money into the financial system. That combination — loose monetary policy and expanding liquidity — is what he thinks sends Bitcoin sharply higher. The argument is grounded in history, at least partially. During the 1990 Gulf War, Federal Open Market Committee members openly cited Middle East instability as a factor in their deliberations. Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes is predicting a $500k – $750k Bitcoin by end of 2026??? Trump admin + Iran conflict + Fed easing = ???????? He explains: pic.twitter.com/AU23sd216a — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 2, 2026 By late 1990, the Fed had cut rates as economic confidence dropped. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed for an emergency 50-basis-point cut, which was implemented almost immediately. Markets steadied shortly after. Hayes draws a direct line from those episodes to what he sees unfolding now. Large military operations cost hundreds of billions. Fiscal pressure builds. The Fed eventually eases. Risk assets, including Bitcoin, rise. A Pattern Hayes Has Bet On Before He made this case publicly in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors could find a meaningful entry point once the Fed begins cutting rates or expanding the money supply. He named Bitcoin and a handful of what he called high-quality altcoins as the assets best positioned to benefit once that shift begins. The key moment, in his view, is not the conflict itself but what comes after. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he argues, are what actually move prices. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit The Gap Between The Forecast And The Chart Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story from Hayes’ projections. The coin sits roughly half its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil climbed after US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow. It sold off initially before recovering to current levels. That disconnect — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags — has not shaken Hayes’ outlook. His $500,000 to $750,000 call remains intact, pinned to the belief that monetary policy, not headlines, is what ultimately drives the price. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict becomes. Featured image from US Air Force, chart from TradingView
The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict is now spilling into monetary policy expectations. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the situation makes the Federal Reserve’s job significantly more complicated, especially when it comes to rate cuts. “I think the recent Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates than they …
The Bitcoin’s recent pullback may look concerning on the surface, but according to Brian Armstrong, the move has more to do with the market psychology than with any deterioration in fundamentals. After a period of strong performance, shifting sentiment and broader market uncertainty are playing a larger role in BTC’s price movement than structural weaknesses within the network or its long-term value proposition. Why Bitcoin’s Core Strengths Remain Intact A crypto expert known as Walter Bloomberg on X has revealed that the Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin’s recent slide is temporary and is driven primarily by market psychology rather than weakening fundamentals. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound Speaking to the Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) at the World Liberty Forum in Florida, Armstrong pushed back against the speculation linking the decline to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership changes or emerging risks such as quantum computing. Instead, Armstrong explained that the move reflects investors locking in profits and reacting to what they believe others are thinking. He described the downturn as likely temporary, noting that Coinbase is repurchasing shares and buying more BTC at a lower price. Armstrong emphasized that crypto market cycles are normal, reiterating that BTC remains the best-performing asset of the past decade and that the company continues to focus on long-term growth. Is This The Early Stage Of Another Supply Shock? Bitcoin whales have accumulated more than 200,000 BTC despite the ongoing selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost highlighted that while whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow. Thus, inflows typically reflect short-term behaviour and can generate immediate selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows The chart below provides a medium-term perspective by tracking the evolution of the whale-held supply on a monthly average basis. After a sharp drop in this average to nearly -7% on December 15, whale behaviour appears to have shifted over the past month, with their holdings increasing by 3.4%. During this period, the BTC supply by whales grew from 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of more than 200,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the last time whale accumulation of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 market correction. At that time, this wave of accumulation had helped absorb selling pressure and supported the rally that pushed BTC from $76,000 to $126,000. However, with BTC still consolidating around 46% below its recent all-time high, the current level may be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. Darkfost noted that it is not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity. As selling pressure remains significant, this whale demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully counterbalance the broader market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Researchers linked to the Federal Reserve say prediction market data from Kalshi could help policymakers better measure economic expectations. In their paper, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” they argue that managing expectations is central to monetary policy, but traditional tools such as surveys and financial derivatives have clear limits. Surveys are often slow …
The latest Fed minutes news released on February 18, 2026, show that Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates, signaling that a rate cut in March is unlikely. While some members support future rate cuts if inflation falls further, others prefer to keep rates unchanged for longer and closely watch economic conditions. Fed …
The US economy is starting 2026 with an uncomfortable split-screen scenario that is complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's recovery towards $100,000. While Wall Street credit pricing still looks calm, the “real economy” stress gauges are flashing late-cycle warning lights. This disconnect matters for Bitcoin because its path to $100,000 is no longer just about crypto-native […]
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Kevin Warsh’s push for a new Fed–Treasury “accord” is reigniting a familiar market argument: whether Washington is drifting toward a softer-rate, higher-liquidity regime that tends to favor hard assets, including bitcoin and crypto, even if it raises the stakes for bonds. The debate flared after Bloomberg reported that Kevin Warsh floated the idea of “a new accord with the Treasury Department,” echoing the 1951 agreement that redefined the relationship between the two institutions. Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the concept could amount to a limited bureaucratic revamp, but a more ambitious effort could “see increased volatility and concern over the US central bank’s independence,” depending on how explicitly it links the Fed’s balance sheet decisions to Treasury financing. Looming over the idea is the political pressure to treat debt-service costs as a policy constraint. Bloomberg pointed to interest costs “running at an annual clip of around $1 trillion,” and quoted SGH Macro Advisors’ Tim Duy warning that an accord could be read as something more than process reform. “Rather than insulating the Fed, it could look more like a framework for yield-curve control,” Duy said. “A public agreement that synchronizes the Fed’s balance sheet with Treasury financing explicitly ties monetary operations to deficits.” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Can Bitcoin Get The Bid? In bitcoin circles, the accord conversation is being interpreted through the lens of yield-curve control (YCC) and debt monetization, not just the path of the policy rate. Luke Gromen framed it bluntly, citing a recent FFTT view: “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” He added a familiar punchline for macro traders: “Math > Narratives (again).” “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” -FFTT, last week Math > Narratives (again) pic.twitter.com/aHMDlz2jzM — Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) February 8, 2026 Analyst Lukas Ekwueme took the argument further: “Warsh, the next Fed chair, will inflate the debt away. He is in favor of yield curve control. This means pegging US short-term interest rates to an artificially low level. The Fed commits to buying unlimited amounts above that level to push interest rates down.” In that telling, the Fed pegs yields at “an artificially low level” and backs the peg with potentially unlimited purchases — a structure Ekwueme compared to the World War II era. He argued the political logic is straightforward: nominating someone “more hawkish than Powell” would clash with Trump’s prior attacks on the Fed for being too hawkish, making a dovish tilt the more consistent outcome. Bull Theory, a crypto-focused account, echoed the historical parallel while stressing that Warsh’s public framing is also about reducing the Fed’s entanglement in long-duration government financing. The account argued Warsh could prefer a portfolio shift toward Treasury bills, a smaller balance sheet, and clearer limits on when large bond-buying programs can occur — potentially with “closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.” But it also warned the market shouldn’t confuse “limits” with “tightening” if the end result is a policy mix that suppresses real yields and keeps liquidity conditions easy. CoinFund President Christopher Perkins added: “I continue to think that the crypto markets got the Warsh appointment wrong. A new Fed-Treasury Accord is the plan…has been all along. Additional coordination, or any shift in responsibilities to Scott Bessent and the US Treasury will bullish for crypto IMO–once things settle. At least for the next 3 years.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? For bitcoin, the central question is the direction of real yields and the credibility of the “independence” anchor because both feed into how investors price fiat debasement risk and liquidity scarcity. The pro-crypto interpretation is consistent: if an accord evolves into a framework that caps parts of the curve or otherwise lowers real yields, it can push capital out the risk-free complex and into assets that behave like inflation hedges or duration substitutes. Bull Theory put it in plain terms: “If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto. Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives.” The caveat is that the same setup could increase volatility in rates markets. Bloomberg flagged that an ambitious accord could spook investors about the Fed’s independence, while Bull Theory argued that reduced Fed support for long-term yields alongside heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the curve and lift term premiums. For crypto traders, that combination can create a two-speed regime: supportive liquidity narratives on one hand, and sudden risk-off impulses if bond volatility spills into broader financial conditions. At press time, BTC traded at $69,151. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period. Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates. Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month. BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
XRP investors are closely monitoring market signals as the cryptocurrency navigates turbulent trading conditions and choppy price action. A recent analysis by market analyst Egrag Crypto identifies a critical exit candle, which could signal the next major step for XRP holders. As volatility increases and downside risks intensify, traders are debating whether to hold, sell, or buy more assets. Analyst Identifies XRP Investors’ Next Exit Candle Egrag Crypto shared a cautious chart analysis for XRP on X this week, highlighting the importance of understanding upcoming price movements if the market is indeed in a bearish phase. He warned that if traders truly believed XRP could decline another 50-60%, then the pump after this price crash should be considered the traders’ next exit candle. Related Reading: XRP Price Falls Below $1.6: You Won’t Believe What Institutions Are Doing Amid The Crash Although he highlighted an exit pump for investors, Egrag Crypto stated that he will not sell his XRP and intends to hold it even if prices fall below $1. He emphasized that, unless XRP breaks below the blue support channel in the chart, his strategy remains long-term, ignoring the market noise. The analyst further noted that XRP’s market structure could soon challenge bearish sentiment, potentially forcing many traders to exit in panic. He said that external factors, such as regulatory changes in the United States (US), could pose significant risks for investors. In particular, Egrag Crypto highlighted the possibility of US President Donald Trump appointing Kevin Warsh as new FED chair, replacing former chairman Jay Clayton. The crypto expert said that if this happens, things could get even worse in the market, potentially accelerating downside pressure. Despite the warnings of a bearish outlook for XRP, Egrag Crypto emphasized that many investors will follow their own strategies. He said that some will continue to hold XRP even if it goes back to $0.5, marking a more than 83% decline from its price high above $3 earlier last year. He also stated that other investors might see the decline as an opportunity to buy and accumulate more tokens, ahead of any future price surges. Market Discipline and Emotional Strategy Remain Critical At the start of his post, Egrag Crypto stressed that his XRP chart analysis is meant to guide investors facing panic, confusion, or emotional overload due to recent market downturns and sudden price crashes. He compared being a crypto investor and trader to competitive sports like basketball or football, describing it as a game that requires skills, preparation, and patience to succeed. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price Is Not A ‘Crypto’ Question, But A Systemically Important Liquidity Asset Since the market runs 24/7, Egrag Crypto asserts that managing both emotional and financial resources is essential. He advised traders to step away from the market when needed and avoid letting any asset dominate their emotional state. He also highlighted the importance of strategy and discipline when investing or trading. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin slid hard over the weekend and stayed low into Monday, leaving traders on edge and pushing many to reduce risk. Prices slipped from roughly $84,000 to about $74,600 in a matter of days, a drop that erased a chunk of recent gains and forced quick reassessments across markets. Nervousness around Federal Reserve leadership, rising job worries, and fresh geopolitical flashpoints all piled up at once. Related Reading: Gold Vs. XRP: One Asset Just Added 20x The Other’s Market Value Average ETF Price Above Market According to Coinglass, the combined assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs sit near $113 billion, while reports note they hold around 1.28 million BTC. Based on those figures, the typical ETF buying price works out to an average of roughly $87,830 per coin — well above current trading levels. That gap means many ETF positions are showing losses on paper right now. Some funds kept buying earlier and are holding positions that are underwater. BTC is trading below the U.S. ETFs avg cost basis after the 2nd & 3rd biggest outflow weeks ever (last week and week before) (and last week’s outflow will increase after IBIT reports friday’s numbers tomorrow) this means the average bitcoin ETF purchase is underwater pic.twitter.com/XowzrnBaSM — Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) February 2, 2026 Outflows Pick Up Over the last two weeks, investors pulled close to $3 billion from the 11 spot ETFs, with one week seeing $1.50 billion leave and the prior week $1.30 billion, according to CoinGlass. Those moves suggest some market participants are locking in gains or cutting exposure after the recent run-up. At the same time, cumulative ETF inflows remain materially lower than earlier peaks; buying has not fully come back even as some holders remain steady. Technical Signals And Bear Fears Reports note that spot BTC is down roughly 40% from its October peak while ETF AUM has fallen by about 31%. That divergence has analysts warning that sustained weak demand could push Bitcoin into a deeper downtrend. Technical charts show longer-term sell pressure building in certain measures. If demand fails to reappear, momentum could carry prices lower and extend selling across crypto markets. Policy, Politics, And Market Mood Market watchers point to extra uncertainty around monetary policy and geopolitics as fuel for the recent moves. Reports have disclosed that the proposed US Clarity Act stalled in Washington. At the same time, headlines about tensions in the Middle East and trade friction added to a rush for traditional safe havens like gold and the dollar. Even a hint of policy change matters: US President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair was discussed by investors as another factor shaping expectations. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Bleed $1.80 Billion As Metals Rally Heats Up Liquidity And The Road Ahead Institutional holders have not all capitulated. Many have been described as holding on, which can cushion sharp drops. But when the average cost basis for major ETF holders is above the current market price, confidence can be fragile. Liquidity has thinned in certain windows, and that makes price swings larger. A recovery requires renewed buying from both retail and big investors, otherwise sellers may dictate direction for longer. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
President Trump has officially chosen former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair, replacing Jerome Powell, with Senate confirmation still pending. Warsh, who served on the Fed from 2006 to 2011 and later worked in economic research and policy, is seen as experienced but likely to favor tighter monetary policy, …
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a meeting today to decide on interest rates. The decision and the official statement from the Fed will be shared at 12:30 AM IST. After that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 1:00 AM IST to explain the decision and answer questions. This is when we find out if …
US President Donald Trump has once again turned attention to monetary policy, saying interest rates will fall sharply once he names a new Federal Reserve chair to replace Jerome Powell. Speaking in Iowa on January 27, Trump said his pick would usher in a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle, reinforcing his long-held criticism that the Fed …