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Bitcoin’s recent price action has continued its upward trajectory, with the asset trading as high as above the $120,000 price mark in the past 24 hours. The move suggests persistent bullish momentum following a period of sharp decline earlier this week. As the price inches closer to its all-time high, on-chain data is starting to paint a picture of solid transactional support behind the price movement. In particular, analysts have begun highlighting a divergence between Bitcoin’s market value and its underlying network activity. One such observation comes from CryptoQuant analyst Sunflowr Quant, who shared insights in a recent QuickTake post examining the unusual behavior of the NVT Golden Cross indicator. This metric, typically expected to rise in tandem with price due to its function as a ratio between market cap and transaction volume, is currently declining, which Sunflowr attributes to a significant uptick in on-chain activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Not Over Yet? Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Further Upside Bitcoin On-Chain Growth Suggests Underlying Network Strength According to Sunflowr, this inverse correlation between the rising BTC price and falling NVT Golden Cross may indicate that the current rally is driven more by actual usage and real transactions on the Bitcoin network rather than speculative trading. “A decline in the NVT ratio during a price increase implies that the transaction volume is rising at a faster pace than the market cap,” he wrote. “This can be interpreted as a sign that the rally is supported by real economic activity.” This observation aligns with the broader sentiment that healthy on-chain growth can serve as a foundation for more sustainable price increases. If transaction volumes are growing organically and not solely from derivatives speculation, it suggests that user adoption and financial utility are contributing to the price strength. Investors closely watching these indicators may find this a favorable environment, though caution remains as other metrics hint at evolving market dynamics. Holder Rotation Signals Potential Shift in Market Participation A separate analysis from CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech sheds light on another dimension of Bitcoin’s current market structure: holder behavior. In a post titled “Holder Rotation,” IT Tech notes that long-term holders, those who have held BTC for more than 155 days, have recently begun net distribution, meaning they’re selling more than accumulating. Conversely, short-term holders are showing net accumulation behavior once again, a dynamic often seen in late-stage rallies. This shift between long-term and short-term holders has historically served as a warning signal. Similar handoffs were observed in April 2021 and November 2023, both of which preceded local tops or cooling phases. While this doesn’t necessarily confirm a reversal, it highlights the need to monitor supporting metrics such as exchange inflows and funding rates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Above $117K as Whale Deposits Decline and Stablecoin Inflows Rise “It’s a classic profit-taking pattern from seasoned wallets, while newer market participants may be entering due to rising prices,” IT Tech wrote. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum has extended its upward momentum this week, climbing over 20% in the past seven days and pushing past $3,600 for the first time in months. As of the time of writing, ETH trades at $3,617, marking a 5.4% increase within the past 24 hours. This rally has been drawing attention from analysts who are examining whether the price movement is being driven by sustainable investor demand or short-term speculative activity. Related Reading: Ethereum Shorts Are Getting Crushed: Could ETH Be Eyeing a New All-Time High? Ethereum Futures Market Leads, But Spot Demand Lags Behind Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests the recent uptrend in Ethereum’s price is primarily fueled by the derivatives market. Contributor Avocado Onchain noted that while ETH continues to move higher, the underlying source of momentum appears to be leverage-heavy futures positions rather than sustained buying in the spot market. This distinction raises questions about the durability of the current rally and whether follow-through demand from spot buyers will emerge. Avocado further highlighted in his QuickTake analysis titled “Ethereum’s Rally Driven by Futures Market — Will Spot Demand Follow?” that the Ethereum Futures Volume Bubble Map is signaling an overheated state in specific zones, indicated by surging volumes. This increase in futures volume, marked by yellow circles on the map, has coincided with ETH’s price gains, implying leveraged positions are largely responsible for the rise. In contrast, the spot market data shows relative stability, with no equivalent spike in volume, suggesting that buying pressure from traditional investors has yet to catch up. The analyst also pointed out that Ethereum’s Open Interest (OI) in futures has reached new all-time highs, which strengthens the idea that the current movement is speculative in nature. The question moving forward, according to Avocado, is whether momentum from the derivatives market will eventually be matched by genuine spot market demand. If such demand materializes, it could contribute to broader altcoin market activity, he added. Institutional Interest and ETF Inflows In a separate insight, another CryptoQuant analyst, Crypto Dan, noted increasing signs of institutional participation in Ethereum accumulation. According to his analysis, ETH is trading at a premium on Coinbase, a platform frequently used by US-based institutions and large investors, indicating heightened buying interest from whales. The premium, described as rare in recent times, aligns with a broader trend of capital inflows into Ethereum-focused spot ETFs, which have recently reached record daily highs. Dan stated that while current metrics do not indicate overheating, investors should remain aware of potential risks should the strong upward activity repeat in the second half of 2025. Related Reading: Ethereum Road To $10,000: Replay Of May’s Playbook Predicts Another Breakout For now, however, the combination of rising institutional demand and growing ETF allocations may provide structural support for Ethereum, especially if the spot market begins to reinforce the momentum sparked in the futures space. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates just below the $120,000 mark, concerns are mounting over whether the top cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum is fading. However, some analysts believe BTC still has room to grow, citing key on-chain indicators. Bitcoin Rally Far From Over According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin’s rally is not yet over. The analyst points to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator as evidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Spikes Without Price Drop – Strong Demand Or Delayed Reaction? For context, STH MVRV measures the profitability of Bitcoin held by short-term investors – typically those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days – by comparing the current market price to their average purchase price. When the STH MVRV is high, it suggests short-term holders are in profit and may sell. On the contrary, a low or negative MVRV indicates undervaluation and potential for further upside. Darkfost noted that during the current market cycle, unrealized profits among STH have yet to surpass the 42% threshold. Historically, every time the STH MVRV reaches around 1.35 – implying a 35% unrealized profit – it has triggered a wave of profit-taking, followed by short-term price pullbacks. As of now, the STH MVRV stands at approximately 1.15, well below the profit-taking zone. The analyst attributes this to the STH realized price exceeding $100,000 for the first time in Bitcoin’s history on July 11. At the time of writing, this realized price has risen above $102,000, providing BTC with a robust support base. To clarify, STH realized price refers to the average price at which all Bitcoin held by short-term holders was acquired. When Bitcoin’s current market price remains above this level, it reflects growing market confidence among newer investors. Darkfost added that BTC could rise another 20–25% before the STH MVRV reaches its critical level again. If this projection holds, Bitcoin could potentially hit $150,000 before the next wave of widespread profit-taking. Fresh Liquidity May Help, But Exercise Caution Bitcoin may also benefit from fresh liquidity entering the market. Fellow CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha recently highlighted a $2 billion USDT deposit into major derivatives trading platforms, signaling potential leverage buildup. Related Reading: No Mania Yet: Bitcoin ATH Lacks Hype, Suggesting Further Upside Potential Similarly, favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to support risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The recent weakness in the USD has fuelled optimism around capital rotating into cryptocurrencies and other high risk-reward assets. ​​However, BTC inflows to centralized exchanges have been steadily rising as well, suggesting a short-term correction could be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $118,862, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Ethereum’s recent price trajectory has caught the attention of traders and analysts, as the asset extends its bullish rally well into today. With the price currently hovering around $3,420, Ethereum has registered a daily gain of 7.7% and a weekly surge of more than 23%. The momentum follows a decisive breakout above the $3,000 level earlier this week, sparking renewed optimism across the derivatives and spot markets. The latest insights from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant provide context for Ethereum’s price action, suggesting that activity on Binance is a major catalyst. Related Reading: Ethereum Could Shoot Above $4,000 This Week, Predicts Analyst Ethereum Short Liquidations Shift Market Dynamics CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost notes that the recent uptick coincides with a structural shift in the derivatives market, particularly around short liquidations. A deeper analysis of exchange flows and taker behavior further supports the case for sustained upward movement, with indicators suggesting that Ethereum may be positioning itself to revisit previous highs. According to Darkfost, Ethereum’s current rally follows a prolonged five-month correction phase that began in December 2024. During this period, the market experienced a flush of long positions, especially on Binance, contributing to what he describes as a necessary “cleanup” in the derivatives space. This recalibration helped reset speculative positioning and laid the groundwork for the recovery observed since late April. Now, the pattern has reversed. “Short liquidations are now dominating on Binance,” Darkfost observed, emphasizing how forced exits of bearish positions are reinforcing Ethereum’s upward price momentum. Liquidation data shows multiple short squeezes in recent weeks, with volumes reaching $32 million and $35 million, respectively. This trend suggests that many traders are positioned counter to the prevailing market movement, adding fuel to the rally as they’re forced to close out positions. Darkfost also highlighted that, if this pace of short liquidations continues, Ethereum may be poised to test its all-time high. He added that ongoing inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs and increasing adoption by institutions viewing ETH as a long-term asset could further support this potential breakout. Taker Volume on Binance Hints at Bullish Continuation In a separate post, CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk pointed to taker-side activity on Binance as another critical signal. The ETH Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (7-day moving average) recently crossed the 1.00 threshold, signaling stronger buy-side pressure from market participants. This shift was accompanied by a spike in price volatility, which reached 261.5, mirroring Ethereum’s latest price surge beyond $3,434. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Breaks Out: Smashes $3,400 Mark in Bullish Run Crazzyblockk noted that this pattern, rising buy-side taker volume aligned with surging volatility, has historically preceded extended price rallies. The divergence between taker long and short volumes further underlines dominant bullish sentiment. The analyst emphasized that tracking taker momentum on Binance may offer early signals for future market direction, as the Ethereum price appears highly responsive to activity on the platform. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to maintain upward momentum despite a recent pullback from its all-time high. Currently trading at $117,847, the asset has recorded nearly a 10% gain over the past week. The dip from peak levels, approximately a 4.1% decline, has not dampened broader investor sentiment, with several on-chain indicators suggesting renewed buying interest and reduced selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Rebounds – $0–$10K Transfer Volume Turns Positive Bitcoin Whale Withdrawals Decline, While Stablecoins Flow In In a recent analysis posted to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, analyst Amr Taha shared insights pointing to a strategic change in behavior among key Bitcoin holders and investors. The report, titled “Stablecoin Flood and Whale Retreat: Binance Moves Foreshadow Risk-On Sentiment”, outlined significant trends in whale activity and stablecoin flows that may support continued bullish momentum in the near term. Taha’s research highlighted a steep reduction in whale-level Bitcoin deposits on Binance. Over the past 30 days, these deposits have dropped from $6.75 billion to $4.5 billion, a $2.25 billion decline. Historically, large deposits from whales to centralized exchanges often signal an intention to sell, so the recent drop may imply a reduction in immediate sell-side pressure. This could stabilize Bitcoin’s price in the short term, especially if whales continue to hold or move assets to cold storage instead of preparing them for sale. At the same time, stablecoin flows have increased dramatically across major exchanges. On July 16, Binance and HTX saw combined stablecoin inflows exceeding $1.7 billion. Taha interpreted this as an indication that large entities, possibly institutions or whales, are preparing to accumulate digital assets. Large stablecoin deposits often precede significant buying activity, suggesting that the market could be gearing up for another leg higher, particularly if paired with reduced sell-side movements. Macroeconomic Developments and Miner Sentiment Add Context This on-chain activity is unfolding amid broader economic and political developments. Taha’s report also pointed to speculation around President Donald Trump’s comments during a private meeting, in which he reportedly considered replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Though later denied, the remark sparked reactions in traditional markets, including a weaker dollar and rising bond yields. These shifts signaled a rotation into risk assets, potentially benefiting crypto markets as investors reallocate capital in anticipation of a more accommodative monetary stance. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Thesis ‘Will Retire Your Bloodline,’ Says Expert Separately, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain analyzed Bitcoin’s miner profitability using the Puell Multiple indicator. The data shows that while miners are currently making solid profits, the level has not reached historical peaks seen during prior market tops. In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, extreme miner profitability (indicated by Puell readings exceeding 2.0–3.0) often preceded sharp price corrections. At current levels, Arab Chain believes the market is not in a euphoric state, reducing the likelihood of imminent volatility due to miner-driven selloffs. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Shiba Inu’s exchange reserves have hit a new low, the lowest level since 2023, providing a bullish outlook for the top meme coin. Based on this development, SHIB looks well primed for a parabolic rally, which could happen soon.  Shiba Inu’s Exchange Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2023 CryptoQuant data shows that Shiba Inu’s exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level since January 2023. This metric refers to the amount of SHIB that is held in wallets linked to crypto exchanges. As such, the drop in these reserves indicates that there has been a massive accumulation by whales who have been moving coins to cold storage for long-term holding.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu Breakout Programmed: Diamond Hands Are Up 783%, SHIB Burn Rate Explodes 1,784% This development is significant as a price surge could follow, with Shiba Inu rallying to new highs. In 2023, as the exchange reserves began to decline, SHIB witnessed a God candle, which sent its price above the psychological $0.00003 level. The meme coin surged from a low of around $0.000007 back then.  IntoTheBlock data also shows that Shiba Inu whales are back to accumulating SHIB, which could spark this rally as demand outweighs supply. Over the last week, SHIB’s largest transactions have been steadily climbing from the lows recorded in June when the meme coin fell to the support level at $0.000010.  It is also worth noting that Shiba Inu’s correlation with Bitcoin is 0.92, indicating a strong positive correlation between the two assets. As such, the meme coin could also skyrocket as the leading crypto targets new all-time highs (ATHs). BTC is looking to reclaim the $120,000 psychological level, a development which could help SHIB maintain its momentum as it rallies towards $0.000020.   Another Rally To $0.000030 In Sight For SHIB In an X post, crypto analyst Javon Marks confirmed that Shiba Inu is eyeing another rally to $0.000030. He stated that in the short term and based on confirmed data, SHIB is expected to reach the $0.000032 level in response to a bullish divergence. The analyst noted that this move itself is over 135% and could only be the start of a larger bullish reversal.   Related Reading: Shiba Inu Price Could See 180% Explosion As This Indicator Flashes Bullish Divergence The analyst had earlier revealed that Shiba Inu had confirmed a clear bullish divergence on its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Marks further remarked that this development points to a nearly 180% upside, which would send the meme coin back to around $0.000032. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Investing Haven also confirmed that the targets of $0.000044 to $0.000066 remain valid for the top meme coin.  At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.00001439, up over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of recovery following a brief market retreat triggered by the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) update. The asset had slipped to lows near $116,000 following inflation data. However, BTC has rebounded since, reaching $119,248 earlier today and trading at $119,187 at the time of writing, roughly 3.1% below its all-time high of $123,000 set earlier this week. While broader macroeconomic concerns are shaping price sentiment, new on-chain metrics from the mining sector are drawing attention. A CryptoQuant analyst has watched miner activity closely, as some key indicators suggest that miners may be preparing to sell. This development could influence short-term price action, though the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains largely unchanged, according to the analyst. Bitcoin Miner Behavior Points to Short-Term Pressures CryptoQuant contributor Avocado Onchain highlighted in a recent post that the Miner Position Index (MPI) has jumped to 2.7. This index compares the amount of Bitcoin being moved by miners to exchanges with the historical one-year average. A high MPI reading generally implies increased selling intent, as miners move assets to trading platforms. Avocado noted that the current reading may indicate mild selling pressure, which could contribute to a near-term correction or sideways trading pattern. However, he also emphasized that the current MPI value is still far from the elevated levels typically observed at market cycle peaks. The analyst suggested that this activity may be part of a recurring intra-cycle trend in which brief corrections are followed by further upward movement. He advised that it remains uncertain whether this miner activity marks a one-off event or signals a larger selling wave. Either scenario may affect short-term volatility, but not necessarily the broader trajectory. Network Flows Support the Data Trend In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain examined the implications of increased miner activity. According to their findings, network data reveals a noticeable uptick in miner-related movements, levels last seen in November 2024. Arab Chain explained that while miner activity on the blockchain is rising, this alone doesn’t confirm sales unless Bitcoin is transferred to exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin OG Whale Moves 40,000 BTC To Galaxy, Triggering Market Shock To further validate the outlook, Arab Chain analyzed platform inflow data. They observed a correlation between BTC transfers to exchanges and Bitcoin’s recent climb above $116,000. This movement may indicate that miners view current prices as favorable for selling, possibly to cover operational costs or secure liquidity. The data also hints at miners anticipating a potential correction, which could drive more transfers and further market fluctuations. They concluded that the extent of any correction would largely depend on whether this wave of miner activity persists. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has begun to recover after a brief decline triggered by the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. On July 15, the asset dropped to a low of $116,000 in response to news that inflation rose to 2.7% in June, amid continued concerns over tariffs from the Trump administration. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,439, reflecting a 1.8% gain over the past 24 hours, which suggests that some investor confidence has returned to the market despite recent volatility. This short-term rebound occurs amid increasing on-chain and market activity, which analysts are closely tracking. One such contributor, Trader Oasis, recently published an analysis on CryptoQuant outlining various indicators tied to Bitcoin’s current movement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Under $117,000: Is Social Media FOMO To Blame? Bitcoin Open Interest, Price Divergence, and Institutional Signals The analyst explored a range of technical and behavioral metrics, including open interest, Coinbase premium index, and funding rates, that are influencing BTC’s recent price behavior and hinting at what may lie ahead. Trader Oasis began by noting that Bitcoin’s breach of the $107,000 resistance signaled the beginning of a potential distribution phase. He pointed out that a divergence between price and open interest acted as a preliminary bullish signal, preceding the asset’s climb. The current state, where both price and open interest are rising in tandem, is seen by some as a sign of strengthening momentum in the market. He also evaluated data from the Coinbase Premium Index, which remains above zero, typically seen as an indication of institutional demand. However, Oasis observed that the indicator’s flat behavior, even as price rises, could imply large entities are securing profits. He further suggested that a breakout above the descending trend line could trigger a stronger upward move, but a fall below zero might represent a new entry signal. Regarding funding rates, he noted that the current rise reflects renewed market confidence, although it is still below previous extreme levels. This, in his view, implies that while enthusiasm exists, excessive leverage is not yet present. Profit-Taking Rises as Binance Dominates Realized Flows A separate analysis by another CryptoQuant contributor, Crazzyblockk, looked at the realized profit and loss (PnL) across centralized exchanges. According to the data, Bitcoin investors realized $9.29 billion in profits in a single day, marking a record high for such flows. This surge in realized PnL reflects widespread profit-taking in the wake of Bitcoin’s recent price rally, especially among short-term holders. Related Reading: Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Moves $1.2B in BTC: Is A Major Sell-Off Coming? On Binance specifically, the realized PnL remains below its all-time highs but has seen a rising share compared to other exchanges. Data shows that on some days, Binance’s share of realized profits has reached up to 60%, reinforcing its growing importance in shaping market behavior. Crazzyblockk concluded that this concentrated profit-taking, led by Binance users, could indicate a shift in market dynamics, noting: Binance’s increasing dominance in realized PnL flows reinforces its critical role in market sentiment and liquidity. For traders and analysts, it is crucial to closely monitor Binance’s on-chain activity alongside other exchanges to stay ahead of potential volatility. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price momentum has encountered a pause following the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which showed inflation rising to 2.7% in June. The inflation increase appears to have affected investor sentiment. After reaching a new high above $123,000 on Monday, Bitcoin has since declined by roughly 5.4% from that peak, with its price currently trading just above $116,000. The broader crypto market also reacted to the news, with the global crypto market cap valuation dropping by nearly 7% in the past day amid renewed uncertainty about future interest rate policy. While Bitcoin has exhibited a strong uptrend in recent weeks, the latest pullback introduces short-term volatility that analysts are watching closely. One particularly notable development occurred on-chain: a transfer of 10,000 BTC, valued at roughly $1.2 billion, from a dormant address last active over a decade ago. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Liquidity Supercycle Has Just Begun, Says Hedge Fund CEO Historic Bitcoin Transfer Raises Eyebrows, but No Signs of Exchange Activity CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán shared insights into the large transaction in a recent post titled “10,000 Historic BTC Move On-Chain.” According to Alemán, the transaction occurred on July 14 at 16:17 UTC, moving 10,000 BTC from address ‘bc1q84…7ef6k ‘ to ‘bc1qmu….8v2p.’ These coins had not moved in over 10 years, indicating they likely originated from early miners during Bitcoin’s earliest phases when the block reward was 50 BTC. Alemán noted that such old unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) often trigger concern about potential sell-offs, but in this case, further analysis suggests a more neutral interpretation. The movement of old coins can occur for various reasons, including UTXO consolidation, wallet upgrades, or potential sales. Alemán explained that this transfer displayed characteristics consistent with consolidation for efficiency and security purposes. For example, the transaction used 16 different inputs, which can help reduce future transaction fees. Additionally, no corresponding inflow to centralized exchanges (CEXs) was detected, typically a key signal when holders intend to liquidate. The analyst also pointed out that two small test transactions were sent to the receiving address before the full transfer. These included a 0.00089 BTC and a 1 BTC transaction, commonly used to verify wallet accessibility before moving a large sum. Interestingly, two hours after the initial transaction, the same destination wallet received another transfer of 10,009 BTC, bringing the total to more than 20,000 BTC moved in the span of a few hours. Implications for Market Behavior and On-Chain Trends While the transaction did not lead to immediate market selling, it has added to ongoing discussions about the role of long-term holders in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. Large transfers from early addresses are rare and often interpreted as strategic reorganization of funds. Alemán noted that the absence of exchange-related activity makes it unlikely that the coins are being liquidated in the short term. Related Reading: Spot Volume Drop on Binance Preceded Bitcoin’s Price Surge, Data Shows However, he cautioned that such movements warrant continued monitoring, particularly if additional large transfers follow or if the recipient wallet later transacts with exchanges. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has reached new milestones this week, briefly breaking above the $123,000 mark earlier today before retracing slightly to $121,812 at the time of writing. This follows a week of strong gains, with BTC rising by more than 10% amid a broader uptrend in the cryptocurrency market. Despite the minor pullback, market analysts are closely monitoring on-chain and derivatives data to assess whether momentum is building toward a more aggressive phase of the rally. The recent surge has also benefited the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, lifting total global crypto market capitalization to just under $4 trillion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Records: What Miners and Leverage Traders Are Doing Behind the Scenes While Bitcoin continues to dominate in terms of volume and influence, sentiment metrics suggest that traders and investors may still be approaching with measured optimism. According to analysts, several indicators are now pointing to a potential shift in market dynamics that could influence Bitcoin’s next major move. Market Euphoria Not Yet Confirmed CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson has offered insights into the current structure of the Bitcoin market through an analysis of the price gap between spot and perpetual futures contracts on Binance. In a recent QuickTake post, Wedson noted that the spot price of Bitcoin continues to outpace the perpetual futures price, a sign that market sentiment has not yet tipped into full euphoria. Historically, a positive gap between the two markets has signaled increased speculative activity and the onset of parabolic rallies. “The gap is still in negative territory,” Wedson stated, “but the narrowing trend indicates that sentiment may be transitioning from cautious to more optimistic.” The analysis implies that traders in the futures market have yet to aggressively price in further upside, possibly waiting for stronger confirmation before deploying leverage. Should this gap flip to positive territory, it could be interpreted as a sign of increased risk appetite, potentially fueling a sharper upward move. Wedson also emphasized the importance of monitoring how derivatives markets respond in the coming days. “If the trend continues and flips positive, we could see a more intense phase of the rally driven by leveraged traders,” he wrote. Until then, the current environment appears to reflect a market in the process of building a foundation, rather than one that has already entered a euphoric phase. Bitcoin Profit-Taking Remains Measured In another analysis, CryptoQuant’s Enigma Trader examined the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key indicator used to evaluate the extent of realized profits by Bitcoin holders. According to the post, SOPR levels have remained moderately above 1 as BTC hit new highs, suggesting that some profit-taking is occurring, but not at a rate that disrupts the broader trend. The analyst observed that a spike in SOPR around July 3–4 coincided with short-term holders taking profits. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Liquidity Supercycle Has Just Begun, Says Hedge Fund CEO However, this activity did not result in significant downward pressure on price. “This behavior points to a healthy price discovery process,” Enigma Trader noted, adding that such conditions typically support continued upward movement when demand remains intact. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

In the past week, Bitcoin has grabbed the major headlines as prices surge to a new all-time high of $118,856 following a market gain of 9.77%. In remarkable fashion, the premier cryptocurrency added an estimated $10,000 to its market value increasing its market cap to a solid $2.34 trillion. Interestingly, recent on-chain data suggest there may be more tailwind ahead backing Bitcoin’s ability to explore new price territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $118,000—But Liquidity Still Thin, Glassnode Warns STH SOPR Sits At 1.02, Suggests Market Not Overheating In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, a market analyst with username CryptoMe has shared some compelling insights on Bitcoin’s price trajectory amidst current market euphoria. As earlier stated, the flagship cryptocurrency experienced a significant price gain to brush nearly against the $120,000 mark.  Despite this rise, CryptoMe notes that short-term holders’ spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) indicates that this class of investors are yet to engage in significant profit-taking. For context, The STH-SOPR measures the ratio of realized profits or losses by investors who’ve held BTC for less than 155 days. A STH-SOPR reading above 1.0 indicates that BTC are being sold at a profit, while values below 1.0 indicate losses. Based on the chart below, sharp increases in this on-chain metric especially into the 1.05-1.20+ range (red zone) have correlated with profit-taking phases and can often precede local tops. However, the STH-SOPR currently sits at 1.02, suggesting that although some short-term holders are in profit, no aggressive market distribution has commenced. This development is particularly bullish considering the STH realized price is presently at $100,000 indicating these investors are 17%-18% in profit and are opting to hold for further price gains.  Meanwhile, the analyst notes that this present on-chain situation aligns with the broader sentiment in the derivatives market. Open Interest is climbing, signaling growing participation, but funding rates remain neutral to slightly positive. This lack of extreme funding imbalances suggests that traders are not flooding the market with overleveraged long positions due to FOMO.  CryptoMe explains that all these factors indicate the Bitcoin market is far from overheating and there is still potential for more growth ahead. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Oscillator Predicts First Sell Pressure Level At $130,900 – Details BTC Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,840 indicating a 3.40% in the past day but a slight 0.82% decline from the present all-time high. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is up by 96.53% indicating a strong market activity behind the ongoing rally backing the potential for a continuation. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s price movement remains in focus as it continues to consolidate just below its previous all-time high. Despite a brief surge that brought it within range of its $111,000 peak, the asset has struggled to establish a breakout. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $108,927, representing a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours. The persistence of this consolidation phase comes amid growing market discussions around spot and derivatives behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know Binance Spot-Perpetual Delta Reflects Cautious Leverage One of the more notable on-chain observations comes from CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, who analyzed the prolonged negative delta between spot and perpetual prices on Binance. According to the analyst, this delta has remained in negative territory since December 2024. That means the spot price of Bitcoin has consistently traded above the perpetual futures price on Binance, an unusual structure during what appears to be a bullish market trend. “When the delta flipped negative last December, Bitcoin had just marked a then-ATH,” BorisVest noted. He explained that this divergence signaled an aggressive buildup of long positions in the perpetual market, just before Bitcoin corrected to $74,000. Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs recently, the delta still hasn’t reversed. “The sustained gap shows that leveraged traders have yet to commit to the rally in full,” he added. This trend could indicate a phase of accumulation in the spot market, which historically precedes stronger price movements. The analyst also warned that when perpetual prices eventually flip above spot prices, it may signal a shift toward a more speculative environment. In such scenarios, sudden price corrections could occur if long positions are unwound rapidly. Traders monitoring the spot-perpetual relationship can potentially use this as a signal to adjust their risk exposure. Dollar Weakness May Signal Tailwinds for Bitcoin Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted a macroeconomic trend that could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, the weakening US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, is currently trading at its most significant deviation below its 200-day moving average in over two decades. This decline coincides with rising US debt levels and has historically aligned with strength in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Darkfost pointed out that when the dollar loses its traditional safe-haven appeal, capital often flows toward alternative assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash To $92,000 Or New ATHs? Analyst Explains The 2 Options “Historical data shows that these periods have consistently benefited Bitcoin,” the analyst stated. While Bitcoin has yet to respond in full to this shift, the trend could support a future upward move, especially if liquidity continues to increase. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to hover just below its previous all-time high, consolidating around the $109,000 mark despite a modest 1.9% gain over the past day. The asset reached a 7-day high of $110,307 but has yet to reclaim the historic high of $111,814, a level set back in May. While short-term price action remains within a tight range, on-chain data reveals deeper structural developments that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead. As attention focuses on Bitcoin’s potential for a breakout, some analysts are turning to supply dynamics for clues. One notable observation comes from CryptoQuant contributor Chairman Lee, who has identified a significant reduction in BTC held on centralized exchanges. This trend may serve as a key indicator of future price behavior, especially in the context of institutional demand and exchange activity. Related Reading: Last Time This Happened, Bitcoin Jumped $50,000—Is History Repeating? Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Drop to Multi-Year Lows Chairman Lee’s analysis highlights a continued decline in exchange-held Bitcoin, with reserves falling to a multi-year low of 2.4 million BTC. This figure is down from over 3.1 million BTC reported in mid-2023. The consistent drawdown in exchange balances is interpreted as a signal that selling pressure is decreasing, which historically has preceded price expansions. According to Lee, “This persistent decline in reserve levels suggests that sell-side liquidity is drying up… Historically, such conditions—where BTC held on exchanges is low—precede major bullish expansions as demand exceeds supply.” In past market cycles, including the 2020–2021 bull run, similar drops in exchange reserves were followed by sharp upward movements in Bitcoin’s price. The logic is based on basic supply-demand mechanics: when available BTC becomes scarce on exchanges, any increase in demand, particularly from ETFs or institutional buyers, can lead to accelerated price growth. Lee emphasizes that this current trend could act as a foundational tailwind, potentially supporting further gains if current demand patterns remain in place. Binance Dominates Whale Transaction Flows Another piece of the market structure puzzle comes from CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, who examined large-scale BTC transactions across major centralized exchanges. According to his report, Binance has maintained its position as the dominant venue for Bitcoin whale activity. Whale flows are defined in this context as daily inflows or outflows exceeding 1,000 BTC. Binance has recorded cumulative whale inflows of 31.36 million BTC and outflows of 30.82 million BTC, along with 53.2 million whale transactions, significantly more than any other exchange. Notably, these numbers do not reflect unique BTC, but rather total flow volumes that include repeated movements of the same coins. High transaction volumes suggest Binance is favored for its liquidity and infrastructure, allowing whales to engage in trading, custody shifts, and arbitrage with minimal friction. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? The data also places HTX Global and Kraken in the second and third positions, respectively, for whale inflows, though their volumes are substantially lower than Binance’s. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has continued to trade within a tight range just below its previous all-time high, showing recent signs of upward movement but falling short of reclaiming its peak price. The asset recorded a seven-day high of $110,307, but it has since cooled, with current trading levels around $108,311, representing a slight 0.3% drop over the last 24 hours. While the broader market maintains cautious optimism, several indicators suggest that market participants remain split on where Bitcoin is headed next. Related Reading: Are Bitcoin Retail Traders Back In The Market? On-Chain Data Suggests So Bitcoin Shorts Increase on Binance Despite Price Climb Despite the price strength seen in recent days, certain signals hint at increasing friction between bullish price action and bearish positioning from traders. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, Bitcoin’s rise is being met with a counterintuitive decline in funding rates on Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume. This trend could play a crucial role in shaping short-term market behavior. BorisVest noted that as Bitcoin consolidates within the $100,000 to $110,000 range, funding rates on Binance have gradually declined. This suggests that a significant number of traders are taking short positions—essentially betting that Bitcoin’s rally will soon reverse. The analyst explained that this behavior indicates skepticism about the sustainability of the recent price gains, particularly among retail and leverage-focused traders. “The declining funding rates show that users on Binance are increasingly shorting Bitcoin,” he explained. “This dynamic often creates forced exits as short positions come under pressure, leading to liquidations or forced margin increases. These events can further propel upward price movement as positions get closed out automatically.” Given Binance’s dominance in trading volume, BorisVest emphasized that its funding rate trend serves as a strong proxy for overall market sentiment. If current positioning continues, the market may see a short squeeze, which could accelerate Bitcoin’s momentum toward new highs. On-Chain Metric Flags Caution as NVT Golden Cross Edges Higher While futures market dynamics are drawing attention, on-chain data is also showing signs worth monitoring. Another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, highlighted the movement of Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross metric, a tool used to assess market value in relation to on-chain transaction volume. This metric has historically signaled local tops when it moves above specific thresholds. In his analysis, Kesmeci pointed out that the NVT Golden Cross successfully identified three prior short-term peaks in 2025, each followed by corrections ranging from 9% to over 20%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Continue To Rise: Investor Confidence At An All-Time High? The metric currently sits at 1.98, below the 2.2 threshold that has often indicated overheated market conditions, but is trending upward. “While the current level isn’t yet in the danger zone,” Kesmeci wrote, “its upward trajectory could be an early warning that price momentum is beginning to overextend.” However, the analyst cautioned against interpreting the signal as immediately bearish. In previous cases, the NVT Golden Cross remained elevated for several days before a correction followed. This behavior may instead point to continued strength among bulls, at least in the medium term, even if a near-term pullback remains possible. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart form TradingView

Chainlink (LINK) is trading at $13.36, following a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, which places the altcoin approximately 74% below its all-time high of $52.70, recorded in May. Despite this short-term dip, LINK has held onto weekly gains of around 2.4%, suggesting broader market participants may still be weighing its long-term potential. While price remains rangebound, recent on-chain data indicates that LINK’s price action could be the result of diverging behavior between retail and institutional investors. Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) On Standby: Bitcoin’s Next Move Holds The Key Chainlink Institutional Accumulation and Supply Pressure CryptoQuant contributor “Banker” highlighted a growing structural dynamic in the LINK ecosystem in a recent QuickTake analysis titled “LINK’s Accumulation Standoff: Whales Build, Retail Waits.” The report outlines how LINK is currently in a consolidation phase between $12 and $15, where institutional actors have been steadily accumulating tokens, while retail users remain largely passive. This discrepancy may be playing a key role in capping upward momentum despite persistent LINK outflows from centralized exchanges. According to Banker, exchange netflows for LINK have remained negative at roughly -100,000 LINK per week, signaling that more tokens are being withdrawn from trading platforms than deposited. This behavior is typically associated with accumulation activity, particularly from larger holders or “whales” who may be positioning for longer-term appreciation. Historical spikes in retail deposits, such as the +5 million LINK deposited in March 2025, have proven to be exceptions rather than the norm, as retail activity has since remained subdued. Supporting this view, active LINK addresses have hovered consistently between 28,000 and 32,000 per day, while transaction counts average around 9,000 daily. These figures have not rebounded from previous activity peaks seen in late 2024, even as Chainlink’s oracle usage has expanded. Meanwhile, elevated levels of exchange withdrawals, peaking at over 3,000 per day in Q4 2024, remain a dominant force. With leverage metrics staying neutral, whales have been able to withdraw LINK without introducing significant price volatility, resulting in a 40% year-to-date drop in exchange reserves. Market Outlook Hinges on Retail Reentry or Whale Fatigue As LINK’s consolidation persists, the path forward may depend on a shift in market dynamics. Banker points out that a meaningful breakout will likely require renewed participation from retail traders, as evidenced by a spike in active wallet addresses and transaction volume. Related Reading: Chainlink Holders Set Record As 1-Yr MVRV Signals ‘Opportunity’ If these metrics rise and price breaks above the $15 price mark, momentum could build for a stronger upward trend. On the other hand, a decline in whale-driven withdrawals or an increase in exchange inflows could weaken accumulation, potentially pushing LINK back down toward the $10 level. Banker added: Until catalysts emerge, whales silently build positions, echoing Bitcoin’s 2023 consolidation before its 2024 surge. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market now appears to be seeing a notable surge in its momentum, with the asset finally breaching the $110,000 mark to inch really close to its all-time high. The asset has so far registered a 24-hour high of $110,117, less than 3% increase away from its all-time high of $111,814 registered in May. At the time of writing, BTC trades back at $109,000 levels, marking a 1.3% increase in the past day. While the price action alone has fueled speculation of an imminent breakout, several analysts suggest that deeper structural shifts within the market are at play. On-chain data particularly reveals changes in whale activity, exchange flows, and stablecoin dynamics that could offer clues about the market’s next move. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon Signs of Reduced Bitcoin Selling Pressure and Upward Bias CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan shared a detailed view of the current state of Bitcoin’s price structure, emphasizing a broader directional change in the market that began in April. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s recent price resilience can be attributed to a noticeable decline in selling pressure from US-based institutional investors and whales. These large players, who were previously offloading significant holdings, have shifted into accumulation mode in recent months. Dan explained that Bitcoin appears to be in a transitional phase. He observed a gradual fade in sell-side activity from major US wallets since April, and that drop has been met with stable buying pressure. This suggests that institutions are no longer offloading positions but are maintaining or adding to their holdings. Dan added that the current consolidation, marked by Bitcoin’s price hovering above the $100,000 range, is allowing short-term overheated indicators to cool down. Dan noted: While the possibility of a correction remains, the broader market direction continues to be upward, so I will maintain my perspective and look forward to the second half of 2025. Overall, this could mean that the ongoing price action in the market may be the calm before a longer-term move upward, assuming macro conditions remain supportive. Exchange Outflows and Liquidity Trends Paint a Risk-On Picture Adding further context, another CryptoQuant contributor, Novaque Research, pointed to recent shifts in on-chain flows and broader liquidity conditions. According to their data, exchange outflows have picked up notably since late June, with some days seeing over 10,000 BTC withdrawn. Such behavior typically signals long-term investor confidence and a reduced likelihood of near-term sell pressure. Additionally, the report noted that miners have remained largely inactive in terms of selling despite BTC trading above $100,000. Related Reading: Whales Are Quietly Repositioning, Here’s What Bitcoin’s $107K Price Isn’t Telling You This suggests confidence in price sustainability and possible anticipation of more favorable financial conditions. Meanwhile, stablecoin activity has also shown key changes. Both USDC and USDT supply ratios on exchanges have been trending downward since mid-June, indicating capital is sitting idle rather than flowing into spot markets. Novaque noted that investors may be on the sidelines waiting for confirmation, but the structural behavior is leaning toward accumulation. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has returned, with the asset briefly crossing the $110,000 threshold before pulling back slightly. After hitting a 24-hour high of $110,117, Bitcoin now trades at $109,386, reflecting a 1.8% increase in the past day. This recent push places the asset about $2,000 surge away from its all-time high of $111,814, recorded in May 2025, prompting renewed attention from traders and analysts. While price movements often attract headlines, on-chain data has started signaling deeper market activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising Binance Sees 3,400 Bitcoin in Outflows as Spot Volume Surges According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, a substantial volume of BTC has recently been moved off Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The shift aligns with anticipation around a series of US macroeconomic indicators, which historically tend to influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Taha highlighted that Binance recorded a net outflow of over 3,400 BTC in a single day. This occurred shortly after Bitcoin’s price breached the $109,000 mark. Large-scale withdrawals from exchanges such as Binance are often interpreted as a sign that holders may be preparing to hold their assets longer-term, or shielding their positions from potential short-term volatility. Simultaneously, Binance’s share of the global Bitcoin spot volume surged significantly, from 41% to 56% in just one session. Taha noted that this spike indicates increased reliance on Binance’s liquidity by traders seeking exposure to Bitcoin ahead of anticipated market-moving economic data. The outflow trend, paired with rising spot volume, suggests that traders are actively responding to broader market signals, especially from traditional finance. US Jobs Report Drives Market Positioning The current surge in Bitcoin activity coincides with heightened market focus on US labor market data, including the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings figures. These indicators are closely watched by investors as they influence inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate adjustments. Shifts in rate expectations often have direct consequences for risk assets like Bitcoin, as changes in the cost of capital affect liquidity and investor appetite. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Taha suggests that the recent Binance outflows may reflect investor positioning ahead of potential macro-driven market volatility. “Bitcoin outflows from Binance alongside the sharp rise in spot trading activity… appear to show that investors are positioning for potential upside volatility,” he wrote. A favorable labor report could amplify bullish sentiment across both equity and crypto markets if it strengthens expectations of a rate cut or an extended pause in rate hikes. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to show little upward momentum as it trades below the $110,000 mark. As of the time of writing, the asset is priced at $108,071 after recording a modest 2% gain in the past 24 hours. Despite nearing its all-time high in recent weeks, Bitcoin appears to be caught in a holding pattern as institutional rebalancing and on-chain dynamics take center stage. Recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi has drawn attention to unusual on-chain activity during the final days of June. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Institutional Rebalancing and Local Exhaustion Signals In a post titled “Whale Profit-Taking and Loss Realizations: Was Late June a Local Pivot Point?” the analyst noted conflicting behaviors among Bitcoin whales. A notable $641 million in realized profits was recorded alongside more than $1.24 billion in realized losses, a combination that suggests a potential inflection point in market sentiment. Mevsimi emphasized that this mixed realization trend came at the close of the second quarter, a period often associated with institutional portfolio adjustments. “Structurally, late June is also the end of H1, when ETFs and institutional funds often rebalance portfolios,” he wrote. Mevsimi added: “That timing adds weight: this wasn’t just noise — it may have been a deliberate repositioning.” Notably, these large movements in realized profit and loss did not extend into early July, which may imply either a temporary stabilization or the beginning of a new market phase. The report also detailed divergent whale behavior. Newer whales, likely short-term participants entering in Q2, showed signs of capitulation, realizing both profits and significant losses. In contrast, older whales locked in $91 million in profits with negligible losses. This division may indicate a shift in control, with experienced holders offloading risk while short-term players exited amid market uncertainty. According to Mevsimi, the convergence of these trends hints at a local exhaustion phase rather than a continued rally. Bitcoin LTH Unrealized Profits and Historical Context In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant’s Darkfost explored the unrealized profit profile of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), revealing a downward trend despite BTC’s proximity to record highs. Citing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Darkfost noted that average unrealized profits have fallen to around 220%. This is well below the peaks recorded during market tops in March and December 2024, which reached 300% and 350%, respectively. “Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” Darkfost stated. The realized price for LTHs now stands at approximately $39,000, suggesting a strong cushion but also reinforcing that speculative excess has yet to return in full force. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon The analyst added that a return to top-cycle unrealized profit levels would require BTC to rise to around $140,000, a target echoed by several bullish forecasts. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from Tradingview

Ethereum continues to exhibit limited upward price movement despite earlier gains last week. Over the past seven days, the asset has gained only 0.3%, while it declined 0.2% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,436. Notably, the ongoing lack of momentum reflects broader hesitation in the crypto market, even as institutional activity and whale behaviors provide structural support for price levels. Related Reading: Ethereum Indecision Masks A Bullish Setup – Here’s Why BTC Holds The Key Ethereum Whales Accumulate, Retail Traders Remain Inactive In a recent market insight shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, on-chain analyst Banker described Ethereum’s current phase as a “deadlock.” According to him, the market is witnessing steady accumulation from large holders, particularly visible through consistent ~60,000 ETH in weekly staking inflows and significant negative exchange netflows, which point to withdrawal activity exceeding deposits. However, these developments are being met with little to no increased activity from retail investors, creating a state of stagnation rather than bullish momentum. Banker noted that exchange data shows over 200,000 ETH being withdrawn in recent spikes, likely absorbed by institutional players. On the other hand, retail-driven deposits, which have reached around 100,000 ETH since 2023, are not enough to create breakout pressure. Daily active addresses remain flat at 300,000–400,000 levels, far below what has historically coincided with strong upward moves in Ethereum’s price. The neutral funding rate of 0.004% further reflects a lack of directional conviction among leveraged traders. According to Banker, the continued withdrawal activity by whales, combined with stable leverage usage, is creating a kind of supply squeeze that prevents significant downside pressure. However, without renewed participation from retail investors or a rise in daily address activity above 400,000, Ethereum is likely to remain within a narrow range. The report concludes that while downside is being contained by large holders, a meaningful breakout would require broader market engagement or a clear external catalyst. Exchange Activity, Divergences, and Macro Factors Add Headwinds Meanwhile, in a separate post, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha examined Ethereum’s exchange inflows and derivatives data, suggesting the market may be on the verge of short-term volatility. Taha reported that on July 1, over 100,000 ETH, worth around $250 million, were sent to Binance in two separate transactions. Such large inflows typically indicate selling intentions or a preparation for trades, especially when they coincide with other bearish signals. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Drops After Bullish Attempt — Support Area Under Pressure Taha also highlighted a divergence between Ethereum’s spot price and Binance Open Interest. While ETH recently printed three local highs above $2,500, Open Interest has continued to decline, forming three lower highs. This lack of confirmation by derivatives traders suggests hesitation to commit to long positions. At the same time, US Federal Reserve net liquidity has dropped from roughly $6.2 trillion to $5.84 trillion, tightening financial conditions and reducing capital flows into risk assets like crypto. According to Taha, unless macro conditions improve or Ethereum-specific demand surges, the asset could face downward pressure in the short term. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

While the broader crypto market experienced a downturn with a 2.7% decline in total market cap over the past 24 hours, TRON (TRX) managed to move in the opposite direction. TRX recorded a 0.6% gain during the same timeframe, bringing its current trading price to $0.2788. Zooming out to a weekly view, TRON has posted a 2.4% increase, standing out among major assets amid an otherwise lukewarm market. This movement has caught the attention of on-chain analysts tracking deeper signals in the TRON ecosystem. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, TRON’s long-term price behavior reveals increasing resilience and a diminishing susceptibility to extreme volatility. Related Reading: Tron’s 374% Profit-Taking Spree Uncovered—Here’s Who Was Behind It Reduced Drawdowns Point to Market Maturity In a recent post titled “TRX Drawdowns Highlight Growing Resilience,” Darkfost shared drawdown analysis as evidence that TRON has become structurally more stable over time. He explained that drawdown metrics, which measure the peak-to-trough decline in an asset’s price, can serve as a reliable tool for identifying strategic market entry points. Darkfost highlighted four major TRX drawdown periods since 2020: a 61% drop in March 2020, a 70% fall in June 2021, a 55% decline in January 2022, and a 40% decrease in January 2025. Each of these correction phases was followed by significant recoveries. However, the drawdown depth has consistently decreased with each cycle, a development the analyst interprets as a sign of increasing investor confidence and capital retention in the TRON network. “With TRX now trading around $0.27, each of these drawdowns has proven to be profitable in hindsight,” Darkfost noted. He added that the trend suggests that TRON is evolving into a more stable asset class with stronger market positioning. Contributing to this stability is the ongoing flow of capital and growing ecosystem usage, particularly for stablecoin transactions. TRON has become a dominant layer for Tether (USDT) transfers, and data from CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn supports this view. TRON Surpasses Ethereum in Stablecoin Settlement In a separate post, Maartunn reported that TRON processed a record $23.4 billion in daily USDT transfers on June 25, 2025, an all-time high for the network. This figure significantly surpasses the $9.9 billion handled by Ethereum on the same day, highlighting the divergence between the two blockchains. Maartunn pointed out that TRON has outperformed Ethereum in USDT transfer volume since mid-2022, noting that the gap between the two networks continues to widen. “The chart doesn’t just show a record; it highlights the growing gap between TRON and Ethereum,” he wrote. While Ethereum’s USDT activity has declined roughly 39% since its November 2024 peak, TRON remains in an upward trend. This transition signals a growing role for TRON as the main settlement layer for Tether transactions, while Ethereum appears to be shifting toward other use cases. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin remains within a relatively tight range, struggling to gain sufficient momentum to break the $110,000 mark. At the time of writing, the leading crypto by market cap trades at $106,437, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours and nearly 4.8% below its May all-time high. The current consolidation range between $105,000 and $107,000 has prompted close monitoring of market behavior, especially from whales and long-term holders (LTHs), as the market attempts to find its next direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Shows Bearish Divergence – Altseason Could Be Near Bitcoin Whales Lead Market Activity as Profit Realization Surges Recent data from CryptoQuant suggests that a significant shift in realized profits on Binance may be influencing short-term price trends. CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk highlighted a major event on June 16, when over $2.6 billion in profits were realized on Binance alone, the second-largest spike of its kind on the platform. This activity was followed by immediate selling pressure and market reaction, suggesting that profit-taking from large investors remains a core factor in the current price movement. According to Crazzyblockk, the June 16 event saw a total of $4.5 billion in realized profits across centralized exchanges, with Binance accounting for nearly 58% of that volume. “This milestone is more than just a data point — it’s a reminder of Binance’s unmatched influence on global crypto markets,” the analyst wrote. He emphasized Binance’s role in price discovery and how whale behavior on the platform often serves as a proxy for broader market sentiment. As institutional participants and high-net-worth investors execute large moves on Binance, their actions can foreshadow phases of trend reversals or sustained accumulation. The data also shows the importance of tracking realized profit and loss (PnL) metrics, especially on high-volume exchanges. The event reflects what Crazzyblockk described as “strategic profit-taking by sophisticated participants,” many of whom rely on Binance’s infrastructure for executing high-liquidity trades. Long-Term Holder Selling Seen as Constructive Rotation In a separate QuickTake post, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent offered a different perspective by analyzing long-term holder activity. Dent observed that although Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $100,000 and $110,000 since May, on-chain indicators such as Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) and Binary CDD show persistent selling from long-term holders. These are entities that have held their coins for more than six months, indicating a redistribution of supply. However, Dent argues that this selling may not imply weakness. “Despite this steady LTH selling, the price hasn’t broken down. This means the market is absorbing the sell pressure—implying new demand is coming in,” he explained. According to Dent, this dynamic, a rotation from older holders to new buyers, is common during mid-to-late stages of a bull market. Related Reading: Warning Signs? Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Take Profits as Leverage Spikes He also noted increased activity from coins held for one to three years, possibly reflecting profit-taking from previous cycle participants. Ultimately, Dent suggested the market may be undergoing a quiet redistribution, a phase that could lay the groundwork for future upside if buy-side demand remains strong. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted modest gains in the past week, with BTC rising 6.2% and ETH up by 9.6%. However, momentum appears to have paused at the start of the new week. As of Monday, Bitcoin trades just above $107,000 after a slight 0.6% daily dip, while Ethereum has remained flat over the past 24 hours. Analysts have turned to blockchain data and macro signals for cues on where the market may head next. Related Reading: Bitcoin Freezes Over $100,000 As OG Whales ‘Dump On Wall Street’: Expert Bitcoin and Ethereum Onchain Trend Recent insights from CryptoQuant Quicktake platform contributor Amr Taha provide some context behind the price action. In a detailed post, Taha noted that Ethereum inflows to Binance have continued for five consecutive days, a trend that could suggest either rising sell pressure or repositioning by major players. At the same time, data from Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) Net Position Realized Cap shows a notable reversal, increasing from negative $49 billion to over $5 billion. This pattern is typically associated with increased activity from retail investors, especially during periods of upward price movement. Taha noted: Historically, spikes in (STH) occur near potential market tops, as retail investors tend to FOMO into Bitcoin rallies. While this doesn’t necessarily signal a reversal, it has often preceded short-term corrections or periods of sideways consolidation. Bitcoin’s steady climb in June, despite occasional pullbacks, appears to have encouraged smaller investors to re-enter the market. In the case of Ethereum, another CryptoQuant analyst, “crypto sunmoon,” pointed to continued accumulation by long-term holders during last month’s price consolidation. This suggests a different dynamic is at play on the Ethereum side, with more patient capital building positions amid ongoing price suppression. Long-term holder accumulation often indicates growing confidence in an asset’s future, even if current market conditions appear lackluster. US Policy and Macro Risk Add Layers to Market Outlook Beyond market behavior, external factors may also shape crypto price action. Amr Taha highlighted recent political developments in the United States, particularly former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a proposed Senate bill promising wide-reaching tax cuts. The bill, which excludes taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income, could lead to an increase in consumer liquidity. If passed, this could impact investor appetite across both traditional and digital markets by temporarily boosting household spending power. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bears Are Taking Fresh Market Positions, But Are They Safe? However, not everybody is convinced of the bill’s long-term implications. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned that the measure, if not accompanied by spending cuts, could expand the federal deficit and lead to economic instability over time. Large fiscal imbalances often have ripple effects on monetary policy, potentially affecting interest rates, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment, all of which can influence investor behavior in crypto markets. Taha concluded: Geopolitical disturbances can significantly impact investor sentiment. In response, investors might reconsider their positions in asset markets, possibly moving away from riskier assets and equities toward more stable options like bonds or safe-haven currencies. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to maintain its upward trajectory following a minor correction, now trading at $107,251, reflecting a 2.3% increase over the past week. Although still trailing its May all-time high of $111,000 by around 4%, the asset’s price action signals a notable return of momentum. The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, has seen renewed trading activity in recent weeks as investor sentiment oscillates between bullish optimism and profit-taking behavior. According to new on-chain data analyzed by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical phase that demands greater attention from market participants. Related Reading: $179,000 Or $79,000? Bitcoin Faces Critical Cycle Pivot, Says Analyst Open Interest Spikes Signal Potential Profit-Taking Zones In his analysis titled “Binance Open Interest Spikes and Long-Term Holder De-risking: Bitcoin is Approaching a Turning Point”, Taha highlights two developing trends: repeated spikes in open interest on Binance and a significant drawdown in long-term holders’ exposure. Both indicators, he suggests, reflect changing market dynamics that could influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. One of the key observations from Taha’s analysis is the behavior of Binance’s 24-hour open interest (OI), which has exceeded 6% for the third time in two months. Historical patterns indicate that previous occurrences on May 26 and June 10 were followed by short-term price corrections or periods of consolidation. These spikes often indicate an increase in leveraged trading positions, which tend to precede short-term profit-taking as traders seek to lock in gains. This trend may suggest that Bitcoin is entering another phase of heightened volatility where rapid shifts in market sentiment could influence price direction. The presence of leveraged positions, particularly at elevated price levels, increases the likelihood of sudden liquidations or pullbacks. While this does not confirm an imminent reversal, it marks a zone where caution may be warranted, especially for short-term traders. Such spikes in open interest often act as precursors to more conservative positioning or brief market cooling periods. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reduce Risk Exposure In addition to rising speculative activity, a separate trend tracked by Taha focuses on the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Data shows that the LTH Net Position Realized Cap, a measure of the realized value of Bitcoin held by these investors, has declined sharply, falling from over $57 billion to just $3.5 billion. This reduction points to active profit-taking among more strategic investors, possibly in response to macroeconomic developments or uncertainty surrounding the current market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Rally To $110,000 ATH As These Macroeconomic Factors Align While this shift in behavior does not automatically imply a bearish outlook, it suggests that experienced investors are trimming exposure after a notable price rally. Historically, long-term holders have exhibited a higher degree of market foresight, making this activity worth noting. Combined with elevated open interest and a potential cooling-off period, these developments highlight the possibility of increased short-term volatility without fundamentally altering the long-term bullish structure of Bitcoin’s market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum is currently trading in a period of subdued price movement, reflecting broader consolidation across the crypto asset market. At the time of writing, ETH is trading around $2,423, marking a slight 0.9% daily decrease and standing more than 50% below its all-time high of $4,878. This stagnation has coincided with a broader lack of catalysts to drive a sustained rally, leaving traders cautious about Ethereum’s near-term trajectory. Despite this lack of price momentum, network activity on Ethereum tells a different story. Related Reading: Ethereum Reclaims $2,444 Level – Bullish Continuation In Focus Ethereum On-Chain Metrics Point to Increased Network Engagement According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, the number of confirmed transactions on the Ethereum network recently spiked to 1,750,940, making it the third-highest daily transaction count in its history. Alemán notes this trend may signal underlying usage strength, even as market participants wait for a more significant price response. Alemán’s analysis focuses on Ethereum’s “Transaction Count (Total)” metric, which captures all forms of activity, including ETH transfers, smart contract executions, and interactions with decentralized applications and DeFi protocols. The recent surge reverses a months-long downtrend and represents the highest transaction count since January 14, when Ethereum recorded 1.96 million transactions. According to Alemán, this spike may be driven by increased arbitrage, trading activity, and interactions with Layer 2 networks, which continue to absorb substantial transaction volume. Platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism remain key contributors to Ethereum’s broader usage. He further points out that, despite ETH price volatility within the $2,100–$2,880 range in recent weeks, the uptick in network traffic may hint at early-stage accumulation or renewed DeFi interest. This dynamic, while not immediately reflected in the asset’s valuation, suggests that Ethereum’s core infrastructure continues to see meaningful use. Speculative Behavior and Exchange Flows Raise Short-Term Concerns Separately, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, has examined Ethereum’s recent technical setup from a derivatives market perspective. Taha highlights that ETH funding rates on Binance have shifted from negative to positive territory, a sign that leveraged long positions are building, which may reflect expectations of continued price upside. However, this shift also raises the potential for overextension, particularly if longs begin to dominate positioning. Related Reading: Ethereum Fakes Out Bears – Altcoin Rally Depends On Key Level Breakout Taha also references a recent retest of a key short-squeeze zone, during which market participants who had shorted ETH were forced to close positions, triggering rapid buy orders. Such moves can generate short-term surges, but they’re often followed by correction phases once speculative energy fades. Meanwhile, exchange data showed more than 177,000 ETH deposited on Binance over three days, indicating potential sell pressure or repositioning by large holders. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is treading cautiously below the $110,000 level, signaling a pause in momentum after recent highs. At the time of writing, the asset is priced at $106,841, marking a mild 0.4% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite brushing a daily high of $107,884, BTC appears to be consolidating in a narrow range, with market participants watching for the next significant move. Amid this relatively flat price action, on-chain trends suggest that not all is quiet under the surface. A new analysis by CryptoQuant contributor “oinonen” sheds light on wallet activity within Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges by trading volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retests $108,000, But Holders Disagree On Direction Bitcoin Mid-Tier Investors Take Center Stage on Binance Oinonen’s findings point to a sharp increase in whale-level participation, as well as a notable contribution from mid-tier investors, which could have implications for broader market behavior. Citing CryptoQuant’s on-chain metrics, the analyst revealed that Binance’s inflow data shows that wallets depositing between 10 and 100 BTC now account for 40% of all Bitcoin inflows. These wallet sizes typically belong to high-net-worth individuals, trading firms, or mid-sized institutions—those who sit between retail traders and deep-pocketed whales. In contrast, whale-level inflows (100–1,000 BTC) currently represent 20% of the total, highlighting that mid-tier players may be driving more exchange activity than larger whales at this time. Interestingly, whale activity still made a major appearance recently. On June 16, inflows of 10,000 BTC surged and made up 83% of total exchange inflows on Binance that day, reinforcing earlier observations from Oinonen about increased whale presence over the past year. According to CryptoQuant’s whale ratio metric, that presence has reportedly jumped by as much as 400% since mid-2023. Binance Deposit Data Points to Rising Institutional Interest Beyond just inflow ratios, Binance’s overall deposit metrics suggest a growing trend of larger average deposits. The average Bitcoin deposit rose from 0.36 BTC in 2023 to 1.65 BTC in 2024. The exchange processed $21.6 billion in user fund deposits in 2024, roughly 40% more than the combined totals of the next ten crypto exchanges. Despite the growing institutional footprint, the significant portion of deposits in the 10–100 BTC range shows that mid-level market participants remain active contributors to the trading ecosystem. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In? Bitcoin MVRV-Score Has The Answer This data may reflect a broader shift in how BTC is being accumulated and moved, where influence is shared between whales and mid-sized investors. While whale flows often generate headlines, the consistent presence of mid-tier wallets can signal healthier market participation and a more distributed form of liquidity provision across the board. With Bitcoin still consolidating near key price levels, these on-chain trends could help shape its next breakout, whenever it comes. Featured image created with DALL-E. Chart from TradingView

Miners are earning less than at any point this year, but they’re still holding onto their coins.

Bitcoin has regained some upward momentum, with its market price currently hovering around $107,155 at the time of writing. This marks a 0.4% decrease in the past 24 hours, and a 4.3% drop below its all-time high of $111,000, set in May. Despite the rebound, analysts are closely watching for potential shifts in momentum as a number of market indicators and macroeconomic signals suggest a more cautious short-term outlook. Among the recent developments drawing attention is a sharp rise in Net Taker Volume on Binance, along with significant stablecoin outflows from derivative platforms. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted in a recent market commentary that these changes could indicate increased speculative activity. While some traders interpret such surges as bullish signals, they often occur due to short liquidations or sudden retail buying rather than consistent organic demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Floor Rises Toward $100,000, Reinforcing Bullish Sentiment Derivatives Activity and Fed Commentary Fuel Market Caution On June 24, Binance’s Net Taker Volume crossed $100 million for the first time since early June. This level of activity, according to Taha, can sometimes signal buying momentum but may also point to forced closures of short positions, especially in high-leverage environments. Taha emphasized that without strong capital inflows to back the movement, these bursts tend to be short-lived. Simultaneously, more than $1.25 billion in stablecoin liquidity has exited derivative exchanges, marking the largest capital outflow from these platforms since May. These outflows reduce the base for opening new leveraged positions, potentially dampening future market momentum. Taha also pointed to external economic cues, particularly a recent statement by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During his testimony before Congress, Powell signaled that rate cuts may be on the table depending on upcoming economic conditions. While looser monetary policy is often viewed as favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, the shift also reflects underlying uncertainty. The analyst also mentioned that the Swiss Franc, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, has also surged against the US dollar, suggesting that some investors are leaning risk-off amid broader macroeconomic developments. Market Structure Remains Firm, But Momentum Is Slowing Separately, another CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan offered a different perspective using a bubble chart model that visualizes trading volume trends across exchanges. According to Dan, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a “cooling” phase. This implies reduced trading activity without dramatic spikes in volume, often seen as a sign that the market is consolidating rather than overheating. Related Reading: CME Gap At $92,000: Is A 12% Retrace Inevitable For Bitcoin? He noted that while BTC remains close to its all-time high, the path forward may depend on macroeconomic catalysts such as confirmed interest rate cuts or regulatory clarity. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum is once again aligning with the broader crypto market recovery as its price begins to reclaim ground lost during recent downturns. After briefly dropping to a local low of $2,177 over the weekend, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has climbed back above $2,400. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,412, though it still reflects a 2.9% loss over the past week and a 2.4% dip over the last two weeks. Amid this price performance, a CryptoQuant analyst has assessed Ethereum’s interaction with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a commonly used trend indicator, and came up with an outlook on where the asset is likely headed. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Loads Up: $422M In ETH Bought In Under a Month Ethereum Key Resistance Levels and Historical Price Patterns According to a recent post by CryptoQuant contributor İbrahim COŞAR, Ethereum is approaching a pivotal moment that could define its next price trajectory. The analyst believes that a decisive break above the 50-day EMA could propel ETH to the $2,800 level, with a further push toward $4,000 if resistance levels are breached. In his analysis, İbrahim COŞAR emphasizes that Ethereum must close consistently above the $2,500–$2,600 range to confirm a breakout. Past data suggests that ETH has previously moved sharply after breaking out of similar consolidation zones. Specifically, in an earlier phase, Ethereum oscillated between $2,100 and $2,800 before moving strongly to $4,000. A similar move could unfold if ETH can surpass the $2,800 resistance in the current market cycle. COŞAR also noted that Ethereum’s 50-week EMA remains a longer-term resistance barrier. A breach of this technical ceiling, combined with strong daily closes above short-term resistance levels, could indicate the beginning of a more aggressive upward trend. However, the analyst advised caution, pointing out that macroeconomic and geopolitical events, particularly those involving the US, Israel, and Iran, could trigger market volatility. He recommended avoiding excessive leverage during such periods. Additional Technical Perspectives Point to Further Gains Javon Marks, another crypto market analyst, presented a more aggressive outlook for Ethereum. In a recent post, Marks observed that Ethereum has broken above a descending trend line, which historically aligns with upward price continuation. He projected that Ethereum could see an 81% gain to reach a target price of $4,811.71. Furthermore, if momentum builds, an additional rally could extend gains by another 77%, pushing prices toward $8,557.68. These projections are not guaranteed, but they highlight growing optimism in Ethereum’s market structure, especially among traders who base strategies on technical chart formations. Related Reading: Ethereum Bounces Hard After Support Bluff, A False Alarm Or Fresh Rally? Despite recent volatility, the broader sentiment appears to favor a continuation of the upward trend, provided critical resistance levels are overcome and no major disruptive events emerge. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Following a weekend dip, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 price mark, signaling renewed short-term strength amid geopolitical tensions. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $105,323, up by 4% in the last 24 hours. The price recovery arrives in broader investor sentiment shifts, both in on-chain behavior and exchange activity. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant’s analyst Darkfost sheds light on a multi-year transition among Bitcoin holders. The analyst observes that fewer Bitcoin addresses are depositing coins onto exchanges, a trend that has persisted since the end of the 2021 market cycle. This declining activity may not necessarily suggest fading interest in BTC, but rather a transformation in how investors interact with the asset, potentially hinting at longer-term strategies becoming the norm. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Drop Below $100k Sparks Bearish Chatter, But Data Says Something Else Decline in Exchange Deposits Suggests Structural Market Shift According to Darkfost, between 2015 and 2021, the number of Bitcoin addresses depositing funds to exchanges steadily increased, peaking at an annual average of around 180,000. However, this upward trend has reversed sharply in the years since. The 10-year moving average now hovers around 90,000, while the 30-day average has fallen to 48,000. Most recently, the daily figure dropped to just 37,000. Darkfost mentioned: This reflects a significant behavioral change among BTC investors, which can likely be attributed to several key factors : – One major factor is the arrival of ETFs, which allow exposure to Bitcoin’s price performance without the complexity or risk of directly managing the asset. Additionally, the current market cycle has seen relatively low retail participation, which historically contributed to exchange deposits. More notably, an increasing number of investors, ranging from individuals to institutions, are treating Bitcoin as a long-term store of value or treasury reserve asset rather than a short-term speculative vehicle. The CryptoQuant analyst added: These shifts, which have emerged gradually over time, are precisely what drive Bitcoin’s evolving identity in financial markets. It may well be this transformation that ultimately solidifies BTC’s role as a store of value. Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Patterns Emerge Amid Lower Volume In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst, Mignolet, focused on activity by large holders on the Bybit exchange. He highlighted that as general market interest and trading volume diminish, the trading patterns of whales become more visible. Mignolet noted that previous periods of reduced sentiment and low volume often saw significant whale accumulation, which historically preceded upward price movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Repeats Its 2021 Pattern—Analyst Warns Final Crash Still Ahead This pattern, according to Mignolet, appears to be repeating. Since Bitcoin’s local bottom in April, consistent accumulation by large entities has been observed on Bybit. He suggested this could be a signal of underlying market confidence, particularly when retail activity is minimal. While not a guaranteed forecast, historical parallels imply that such behavior may again precede broader price strength, lending weight to ongoing consolidation as a potential setup for future momentum. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after dropping below the $100,000 mark, a decline attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions. The digital asset reached lows of approximately $98,974 following reports of US military strikes on Iran. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has regained some ground and is trading at $102,1010, representing a 2.4% increase over the past 24 hours and a 5.82% decrease over the last week. Amid this price performance, recent on-chain analysis points to a phase of consolidation rather than a structural breakdown. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shared in a QuickTake post that long-term Bitcoin holders appear to be maintaining their positions rather than exiting, indicating continued conviction despite short-term volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashed Below $100,000 Amid US Airstrikes On Iran And Market Sell-Off Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Signal Consolidation, Not Capitulation According to Darkfost, the current market behavior is reflective of a quiet consolidation period, with long-term holders showing little inclination to sell. Based on the 30-day moving average of Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), his analysis shows that the metric has stayed below the 0.8 threshold typically associated with major corrections. The value recently peaked at 0.6 before trending downward, suggesting limited market overheating at present levels. Darkfost emphasized that this moderation could precede a continuation of the broader bull cycle, mirroring past market structures where consolidation phases led to further price advances. He noted that past bull runs have often been characterized by a “staircase” trajectory, periods of sideways or modest downward movement followed by renewed upward momentum. In this context, subdued sentiment may indicate that the market is preparing for a potential next leg higher. The analyst wrote: Importantly, this does not signal the end of the bull cycle. Instead, similar to the past two phases, we may once again see a staircase-like movement where consolidation is followed by another leg up. Historically, Bitcoin’s explosive rallies tend to occur when market attention fades and sentiment is quiet, making the current silence potentially a precursor to the next big move. Whale Behavior Remains Steady Amid Market Tensions Complementing this outlook, another CryptoQuant contributor, Mignolet, provided insight into whale activity during the current consolidation phase. He noted that while the market setup resembles the double-top formation seen in 2021, key on-chain signals from whales have not aligned with those seen during that previous peak. Specifically, Ethereum transaction outflows, often used as a proxy for large investor exits, have not shown the kind of spikes observed during the 2021 market top. Related Reading: Bears Will Be Washed Out Of Bitcoin If This Happens Mignolet pointed out that although Ethereum has seen a gradual decline in market share relative to other layer-1 and layer-2 chains since 2020, its transactional data still maintains a strong correlation with Bitcoin price movements. The absence of aggressive exit activity among large holders suggests that major market participants are not rushing for the exits, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and short-term price volatility. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView