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CryptoQuant says exchange deposit activity has climbed across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, a setup often linked to higher volatility.

Centralized exchanges reportedly saw notable 24-hour withdrawals led by USDC and Bitcoin as traders moved funds off platforms.

The Coinbase Premium Index has reportedly stayed negative since May 6, pointing to softer US Bitcoin demand relative to global venues.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand Flatlines in Negative Territory for 208 Days as Sell Pressure Mounts: a fresh look at Bitcoin apparent demand, market context, key

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s current distribution phase may be less a sign of structural weakness than a major transfer of supply from old market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs and new long-term holders. In a series of posts on X, Ki argued that selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a broad “change of hands” rather than evidence that the asset has exhausted its cycle. The key question, in his view, is not only how much supply is being sold, but who is ultimately absorbing it. “I believe that the selling by Bitcoin OGs and long-time miners is part of a major shift in hands, transferring to US traditional financial institutions, investors, and ETFs,” Ki wrote. “So, I disagree with the claim that Bitcoin won’t do well anymore once the shift is complete and there’s no more liquidity coming in.” Bitcoin’s Ownership Base Is Changing Ki’s thesis centers on the composition of Bitcoin holders. He said that, for any asset, the long-term market setup depends heavily on the capital base behind it. If the new owners are institutions capable of attracting larger pools of liquidity over time, he argued, the transition could ultimately support another upward cycle. “For any asset, what ultimately matters is who holds it,” he wrote. “If the people holding it now are entities that can bring in even greater liquidity going forward, then I think we can look forward to the next rally at any time.” The argument marks a notable framing of the current market. Bitcoin has seen intense sell pressure even as large institutional buyers have continued absorbing supply. Ki described the current distribution phase as “a massive change of hands,” pointing to a market where old holders are distributing while ETFs, Strategy and newer cohorts take the other side. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Turn Most Fearful In 2 Months Following Crash According to Ki, Bitcoin investors’ average cost basis is around $53,000. Historically, he said, bear markets ended only after price fell below the realized price. He previously thought that level would be difficult to revisit because of institutional inflows and Strategy’s limited selling. But he said recent price action indicates “unusually strong sell pressure.” The scale of absorption is central to his concern. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing a net 711,174 BTC from circulation, according to Ki. Since March 2024, when Bitcoin was also around $63,000, ETFs have absorbed 509,102 BTC while Strategy bought another 650,706 BTC. Together, that amounts to 1,240,808 BTC absorbed, yet price has returned to the same level. For context, Ki noted that exchange reserves sit around 2.7 million BTC, while Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to hold around 1 million BTC. In other words, more Bitcoin than Satoshi’s estimated stack, and nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed without producing a sustained price advance. Short-Term Buyers Are Maturing Ki also pointed to a major shift inside the realized-cap structure. Bitcoin is at roughly the same price as two years ago, he said, but the holder base looks materially different. The 6-month-to-2-year cohort, representing investors who entered during this cycle, now accounts for 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago. That matters because, in Ki’s interpretation, short-term holders are gradually becoming long-term holders. He compared the current figure with the previous cycle, when Bitcoin bottomed after the same cohort reached 68% of realized cap. “Short-term holders are evolving into long-term holders,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drops Below $66,000 Amid Mounting ETF Outflows, $4B Withdrawn In 12 Days The setup is not without risk. Ki reposted a separate observation from Julio Moreno stating that overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC. Moreno argued that the current correction is tied directly to Bitcoin demand conditions, not to equities, oil or macro indicators, noting that stocks are at all-time highs while manufacturing activity is improving. Ki’s posts therefore present a split picture. On one side, current demand is contracting and sell pressure remains heavy despite historic institutional absorption. On the other, Bitcoin’s ownership base is migrating toward institutions and maturing newer cohorts that may provide a deeper demand base in the future. Ki acknowledged that this transition comes with a cultural cost. “Honestly, in terms of rising asset value, I think traditional financial institution investors might provide an even stronger demand base than Bitcoin OGs,” he wrote. “Of course, in that process, some of the cypherpunk values may get diluted. I really regret that part too.” For markets, the debate now turns on whether Wall Street’s growing share of Bitcoin ownership can offset the supply leaving older holders and miners. Ki’s conclusion remains constructive, but conditional on that transfer becoming a source of future liquidity rather than a ceiling on upside. “Still, I believe there will definitely be another upward cycle for Bitcoin,” he wrote. “As an investor, I still believe in Bitcoin and think it’s worth waiting a bit longer.” At press time, BTC traded at $62,696. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is enduring a multi-front assault on its spot market liquidity as exchange-traded funds, short-term speculators, and cryptocurrency miners simultaneously distribute assets. This coordinated selling pressure has drained market demand at the fastest pace since the 2022 collapse of the Terra/Luna ecosystem. As a result, BTC's price has tanked 12% over the past week, pushing […]
The post Bitcoin’s selloff is creating the short-heavy setup that could reverse it fast appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Over the last week, the Bitcoin price has continued to see sustained selling pressure, with the flagship cryptocurrency trading around $73,400. According to recent on-chain data, changes in key market structures suggest Bitcoin might remain in this bearish state in the near to mid-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Hit A Ceiling, Analyst Says No Buying Until Price Hits This Level Realized Cap Metric Reflects Growing Capital Outflows  In a recent post on QuickTake, on-chain analyst Carmelo Alemán revealed a notable decline in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap values. The analyst notes that, since January 19, the metric has dropped by 3.63%, from around $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion; a decline of $40.847 billion. Interestingly, this period of the Realized Cap’s decline coincides with Bitcoin’s descent of over 20% from $92,593 to its current valuation. For context, the Realized Cap metric measures the total amount of capital invested in Bitcoin by valuing each BTC at the price it last moved on-chain, rather than at the current market price. Given that both the Bitcoin price and the Realized Cap experienced a steady yet notable downturn, this correlation is a telltale sign that investors have likely been withdrawing their capital rather than holding through Bitcoin’s moves. Related Reading: The Mistake Investors Are Making About Ethereum That Could Cost Them Money; Analyst Humpback Whales Add To Sell Pressure  Further unsettling is Alemán’s highlighting that wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC seem to have joined the selling spree. These wallets, commonly referred to as Humpback Whales, are reported to have sold off approximately 612,753 BTC between the 11th and 28th of May. As such, the analyst points out that they currently dominate as the sources of spot bearish pressure. Interestingly, these huge Bitcoin sales correspond with an accelerated growth of capital outflows, which began on May 14th. Alemán notes that, as expected, the Bitcoin price dropped by approximately 10.72% during this period, from $82,365 to $73,530.  Ultimately, the three highlighted on-chain conditions — falling Realized Cap, growing spot outflows, and aggressive whale distribution — paint a bearish picture for the Bitcoin price in the short term. The crypto analyst explained that the Bitcoin price is likely to maintain a downtrend, especially if it continues to be driven by speculative activity. However, the premier cryptocurrency could also quickly gain stability if the BTC spot market sees a resumption of inflows. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $73,485. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the Bitcoin price has barely moved over the past day, recording a 0.3% loss. On the weekly timeframe, however, Bitcoin is down by 2.43%. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

XRP is sending out an interesting on-chain signal at a time when its price is still struggling to build a convincing recovery above $1.3. A closely monitored on-chain metric tracking the behavioral gap between XRP’s largest holders and its retail base has collapsed to its lowest reading in more than two years.  The data, sourced from blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, points to a structural shift in how XRP is flowing out of Binance, with the Binance Whale vs. Retail Spread for XRP falling to 88.3%, its lowest level in more than two years. XRP Whale Vs. Retail Spread Hits A 2-Year Low The spread between whale and retail outflows on Binance has dropped to 88.3%, its lowest point since May 2024, and notably, it is the second time this level has been tested within the same month.  Related Reading: Pundit Says The Clock Is Ticking For XRP, Here’s What To Know The Binance Whale vs. Retail Spread tracks the gap between large XRP outflows and smaller retail-sized outflows on Binance. Based on CryptoQuant’s model, whale activity refers to XRP outflow bands above 10,000 XRP, and retail activity refers to smaller outflow bands below 10,000 XRP.  A high spread means whales are dominating exchange withdrawals by a wide margin, while a falling spread shows that the difference between large holders and smaller traders is becoming less extreme. The current reading sits near the bottom of the chart’s two-year range, which makes it a notable change in XRP’s market structure. As it stands, the reading is at 88.3%. Notably, this reading means that the spread is still positive, so whales are the larger force in Binance XRP outflows. However, the chart shows a clear decline from the 92% to 94% region that appeared during several points in late 2025 and early 2026.  Why The Drop Could Be A Signal A falling whale-retail spread can be interpreted in two ways. The first interpretation is that whale dominance is cooling down. In that case, large holders may no longer be removing XRP from Binance with force. That would make the signal less immediately bullish, especially because the XRP price has continued to fall lower since its peak price of $3.65 in July 2025. Related Reading: Key Volume Signals Are Driving XRP Momentum Amid Market Uncertainty The second interpretation is that retail participation is rising at the same time that whale activity is becoming less aggressive. As noted by an XRP commentator account known as BankXRP on the social media platform X, this low reading is historically a precursor to major price moves. This trend can be seen in the chart above, where similar downtrends in the whale-retail spread on Binance coincided with the beginning of rallies in January and July 2025. Exchange reserve data shows XRP supply on major trading platforms has been shrinking through the first half of 2026, and the 30-day moving average of whale XRP transfers to Binance fell to levels not seen since 2021.  Fewer tokens on exchanges means less immediately available sell-side pressure, which could contribute to a stronger bullish momentum when demand starts to creep back in. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

A closely watched on-chain indicator has returned to a range that has marked major turning points in Bitcoin’s price history, and some analysts say the setup looks familiar. The Bitcoin Fund Flow Ratio on Binance has dropped to between 0.010 and 0.012 — a level reached only five other times since 2018, each preceding a significant recovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Thesis Goes Big: 39 Trillion Reasons To Buy, Says Gemini Founder The metric tracks how much Bitcoin activity is happening on exchanges relative to the broader network. When the ratio falls, it means fewer coins are moving to exchanges, which typically signals weaker selling pressure. Analyst MorenoDV, citing CryptoQuant data, described the current setup as a “decision zone.” Bitcoin could stay weak if demand remains low, or selling exhaustion could quietly lay the groundwork for the next move up. When Attention Fades, Bears Feel Safe That idea runs through a broader argument being made by market commentators right now. Rand Group, posting on X, pointed to Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio chart and argued that some of the asset’s most explosive moves came right after periods when almost nobody was paying attention. Every time “no one cares about Bitcoin” it bounces the hardest Are you paying attention or nah? pic.twitter.com/r7iSTorbgV — Rand Group (@randgroup) May 22, 2026 Historical data backs that up. Reports indicate that similar low-interest phases lined up with Bitcoin trading near $3,000 in late 2018, around $9,000 in 2020, and close to $25,000 in 2023 — all of which turned out to be bottoms before sharp upward moves. Each time, selling pressure had dried up before buyers returned in force. Macro analyst Brian Truong expanded on the pattern, saying that low attention combined with fading sell pressure has historically created the conditions for sudden reversals. Bears feel confident. Then the market moves against them. Bitcoin’s Fund Flow Ratio Returns to the Zone That’s Marked Every Major Turn “Bitcoin is approaching a decision zone: either demand remains weak, and the compression reflects apathy, or sell-side exhaustion becomes the foundation for the next recovery phase.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/mox08h9etV — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 22, 2026 ETF Outflows Cloud The Picture The bullish on-chain signals, though, are colliding with real short-term pressure. Bitcoin dropped 3.50% in 24 hours to $74,750, dragged down by institutional selling and heavy outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs — roughly $1.4 billion pulled out over the past week alone. Related Reading: History Shows Bitcoin ETF Outflows Favor Accumulation, Says Santiment Rising yields are adding to the weight. The 30-year US Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, making traditional fixed-income assets more attractive compared to non-yielding ones like Bitcoin. Still, some analysts believe the broader picture matters more right now than the day-to-day price action. Based on reports, the same combination of low exchange flow and reduced market noise has preceded every major recovery Bitcoin has staged over the past several years. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Over the past two weeks, the Ethereum price has trended downward, sparking fears of another prolonged correction. However, data from a recent on-chain analysis indicate that the long-term bullish case for Ethereum remains quite strong. Related Reading: Solana Vs Ethereum: What’s Holding Growth Back? 3 Reasons SOL Is Still Lagging Staked Ethereum Metric Indicates Long-Term Investor Confidence In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, crypto analyst PelinayPA highlights a confluence of on-chain signals reflecting a strong confidence among Ethereum long-term traders. First, the market analyst notes that the Staked Amount metric, which began to rise in 2023, has reached an all-time high early in 2026. This means the amount of staked ETH has risen significantly, and that a large (and growing) portion of Ethereum’s circulating supply is being removed from active market circulation. In turn, this reduces the amount of ETH available for sale.  At the same time, the MVRV metric signals that the Ethereum market remains healthy, despite recent corrections. PelinayPA explains that while many ETH holders are in profit, the MVRV metric has yet to enter the overheated zones historically reached at cycle tops. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Step Back In After Longest Deleveraging Since 2022 Binance Depositor Activity Reinforces The Narrative Interestingly, Binance depositor activity has not been rising the same way as the amount of staked ETH. For context, when depositor activity climbs, it is often interpreted as a sign of imminent short-term sell pressure. This is because investors mostly send ETH to Binance in preparation for selling or taking profits. So, while depositor activity has been on the rise, PelinayPA notes that this is inconsequential in the long-term, as staked ETH is climbing steadily and even more aggressively, compared to the amounts recorded in Binance deposits.  Simply put, this means that while short-term players are planning to sell Ethereum, long-term holders are simply taking Ethereum out of circulation and staking it. PelinayPA explains that this kind of divergence often sets the tone for a supply squeeze to play out in the medium to long term. Finally, the crypto analyst reveals that Ethereum’s Realized Cap has also continued to climb. According to the analyst, this reflects that capital is still entering the Ethereum market. Interestingly, PelinayPA points out that this kind of structure is typical of late bull cycles rather than bearish markets.  Hence, the Ethereum market is currently in a strong bullish trend and may see occasional corrections. According to PelinayPA, when these pullbacks show up, they would likely be buying opportunities, but only if the Binance depositor activity metric has not seen any sudden spikes. As of press time, Ethereum trades for $2,113, reflecting a 2.26% growth over the past day, according to CoinMarketCap data. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Traders cashed out nearly $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single day last week — a sign that the recent recovery may be running out of steam. Related Reading: XRP Bulls Gain Momentum As ETF Inflows Reach Multi-Month High On May 4, investors sold 14,600 Bitcoin, pushing daily realized profits to their highest point since early December. According to CryptoQuant, that kind of selling spike during a bear market rally has historically marked a local price top. A Rally Under Pressure Bitcoin climbed roughly 37% over six weeks, rising from $66,000 in early April to briefly touch $82,380. That level lines up with the cryptocurrency’s 200-day moving average — a technical marker that proved to be a wall during the 2022 bear market. Back then, Bitcoin hit that same average in March before sliding further into a prolonged decline. CryptoQuant’s latest research draws a direct line between that episode and today’s setup. Unrealized profits among traders also spiked during the recent run-up. On May 5, profit margins reached over 17%, the highest reading since June of last year. Bitcoin traders’ unrealized profit margins hit 17.7%, the highest since June 2025. The last time margins reached these levels while Bitcoin tested the 200-day MA was March 2022, just before the downtrend resumed. pic.twitter.com/Zgfe9jFTiv — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 13, 2026 Data shows that figure mirrors conditions last seen in March 2022 — right before Bitcoin resumed its fall. The combination of profit-taking and a historically significant resistance level has prompted CryptoQuant to flag the possibility of a trend reversal. Inflation Data Adds To The Pressure Outside the crypto market, broader economic signals are adding to the uncertainty. The US Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the steepest increase in four years. Bitcoin has grown more sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has expanded, and the inflation report pushed the price down 2.3% in 24 hours to around $79,250. If selling pressure does push Bitcoin lower, CryptoQuant puts the next major support around $70,000. That level reflects the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted and has historically shifted from resistance to support during bear markets. At that point, short-term traders would have little unrealized profit left, removing much of the incentive to sell. Bulls Still See A Different Path Not everyone reads the charts the same way. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could make a fast move to $90,000 if the US Senate advances the CLARITY Act, a long-awaited piece of crypto legislation. This can literally go both ways. If this continues to grind upwards, with the upcoming CLARITY Act tomorrow, I would assume we might see a fast move to $90K in a matter of days for #Bitcoin. The build-up is sincerely strong. pic.twitter.com/rYkwa7lWYF — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 13, 2026 Related Reading: Strategy Boosts Bitcoin Position With Fresh $206M STRC Injection A return to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 is seen as almost inevitable, according to Maelstrom investment chief Arthur Hayes Hayes pointed to money printing pressures linked to the Iran conflict and the escalating US-China race in artificial intelligence as key catalysts. Both views reflect the sharp divide among market watchers as Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture. Featured image from Mint, chart from TradingView

The massive surge in the Bitcoin price since April 2026 is still viewed as part of a broader bear market phase, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. While some market experts believe the rebound could signal a new bull run, CryptoQuant’s unrealized profit data show the numbers are nowhere near bull-market levels. Notably, as BTC’s value increases, rising selling pressure could threaten the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, potentially triggering a price breakdown.   Profit-Taking Hits Three-Month Highs After Bitcoin Price Surge Bitcoin’s rally to $82,000 on May 6 came as a shock to the broader digital asset market, as that was the first time the cryptocurrency had reached that level since late January 2026. Initially, BTC broke above $81,000 on May 5 and pushed toward $82,000 the next day, only to be rejected. Now, after the surge, Julio Monero, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes that investors could be gearing up to take profit, potentially adding more volatility to the cryptocurrency’s price.  Related Reading: Here Are The Major Bitcoin Levels To Watch After Breaking $80,000 Monero said in an analysis report that Bitcoin holders realized daily profits of up to 14,600 BTC on May 4, marking the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profits on a 30-day basis also surged, with holders realizing over 20,000 BTC. These numbers reinforce the analyst’s belief that selling pressure may be imminent. The CryptoQuant analyst also noted that Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 20% since the beginning of April, now trading around $80,000 after its latest rally. To some, this might look like a renewed and sustainable bull run. However, he described the move as a “bear market rally,” suggesting that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear trend despite recent price gains.  Monero also revealed that BTC’s price surges since April have been fueled by easing macroeconomic pressures and an earlier undervaluation, which kept its price depressed all through January to March 2026. He added that a sharp increase in demand for perpetual futures has helped prop up BTC’s price, suggesting that much of the buying is probably driven by leveraged traders rather than fresh spot accumulation. All of these developments appear to be pushing the cryptocurrency’s price upward despite social and whale sentiment still firmly in the Fear territory. At the same time, price score and volatility indicators are flashing Greed, signaling that BTC’s rally is likely being driven by price action alone, rather than any meaningful or real shift in how investors actually feel about the market.  Analyst Flags Upcoming Downside Risk For BTC In his report, Monero added that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized profit of over 20,000 BTC is still a long way from the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He believes the gap alone suggests the market could still have more pain ahead. Related Reading: Here’s The Next Major Bitcoin Resistance To Watch Out For Before A Crash Beyond the broader bear market and potential selling pressure, Monero also highlights specific warning signs that raise Bitcoin’s downside risk. He noted that while perpetual futures continue to climb, spot demand and exchange inflows remain weaker than expected. He described this setup as one that is “consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Analysts believe Bitcoin may still have significant upside ahead, pointing out that a rare signal has appeared on a key valuation metric for the first time in roughly two years — and history suggests it could mark the start of a major price run. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bullish Momentum Explodes As Buying Pressure Intensifies A Critical Level In Play At around $82,500, Bitcoin is bumping up against its 200-day moving average, a line that traders closely watch. Breaking above it could end months of downward pressure. Failing to hold it, analysts warn, could send prices sliding back toward $50,000. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this test may shape Bitcoin’s direction for months to come. The focus, though, goes beyond simple price charts. A metric called the Market Value to Realized Value ratio — or MVRV — is on the verge of printing what analysts call a golden cross, a crossover event where the ratio moves above its 200-day exponential moving average. CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 flagged the signal over the weekend, calling it a “representative trend reversal signal” and a bullish indicator. A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line is imminent. This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator. A golden cross is about to occur again following the dead cross last August. Another bullish signal for $BTC is… pic.twitter.com/13z6HvNiGA — CW (@CW8900) May 10, 2026 An earlier golden cross in late April — when the 30-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s MVRV crossed above its 90-day equivalent — had already prompted the analyst to declare that Bitcoin had “completely turned to a bullish trend.” What Past Signals Showed The last time this specific MVRV crossover appeared was just after Bitcoin’s 2022 cycle low. What followed was a 90% price surge, from around $16,300 up to $31,000 in early 2023. A second occurrence in September 2023 preceded an even bigger move — a roughly 400% rally that eventually carried Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Those precedents are fueling optimism. Data from Glassnode adds another layer to the picture. The short-term holder cost basis — the average entry price for investors who have held Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days — shows a “heated” band at $92,000 and an “overheated” band at $104,000. Based on that data, Bitcoin has room to run before reaching historically stretched territory. Related Reading: Nearly 80% Of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved As Long-Term Holders Tighten Grip Analysts Signal A Bigger Move Ahead Multiple analysts are pointing to broader technical setups as well. Analyst Shib Spain noted that Bitcoin recently broke above a multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart, a move reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover. “Bitcoin’s huge breakout is coming,” the analyst posted on X. Another analyst, known as Moustache, cited the Bitcoin market cap and its Relative Strength Index bouncing off multi-year support levels on the monthly chart. “Prices will go much, much higher,” the analyst wrote, adding that “something big” lies ahead. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

A 126% price surge that pushed XRP to an all-time high of $3.6 last July started with a pattern that looks a lot like what is happening right now. Related Reading: Swiss Bitcoin Reserve Effort Withdrawn After Resistance From Central Bank Shorts Dominating Despite Rising Prices Funding rates on Binance have stayed negative since February 2026, even as XRP climbed roughly 27% from a low of $1.10. That gap between trader sentiment and actual price movement is what caught the attention of CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who flagged the setup in a recent market commentary. Short positions have been dominant across a 30-day period, data shows, and that stretch of negativity marks the longest such run in recent history for the token. The broader altcoin market had a rough start to the year. The TOTAL3 index, which tracks global crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, shed more than $540 billion during the correction. Global uncertainty hit altcoins harder than most other asset classes. Since early February, however, roughly $125 billion has flowed back into the index, pointing to a slow but steady return of investor interest. XRP dropped as low as $1.10 in February before beginning its recovery. Prices have climbed since then, but funding rates have not followed. According to Darkfost, this kind of divergence carries weight. When the majority of traders are positioned negatively after a drop of more than 60%, history suggests a reversal may be building beneath the surface. A Pattern That Already Played Out Once The same set of conditions appeared in April 2025. XRP was trading near $1.25 following a sharp decline, and funding rates had just turned negative for the first time in over 16 months. They stayed negative well into June 2025. During that time, the price was quietly recovering. By the time funding rates flipped positive again, XRP was already deep into an uptrend. The rally that followed brought the token to $3.6 in July 2025. That move, from roughly $1.25 to $3.6, represented a gain of 126% and set a new all-time high for the asset. Related Reading: Nearly 80% Of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved As Long-Term Holders Tighten Grip Capital Returning As Bearish Bets Hold What makes the current setup similar, based on Darkfost’s analysis, is not just the negative funding rates. It is the combination of those rates holding steady while prices recover and capital slowly returns to the altcoin market. Short sellers have held their positions even as the price contradicts their outlook. If the 2025 pattern holds any predictive value, the continued buildup of short positions against a recovering price could eventually produce the kind of squeeze that accelerates a breakout. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The XRP price remains range-bound as it has been over the past couple of weeks. As of the time of writing, the XRP price has appreciated by 1.86% over the past day, yet it has been unable to break above the $1.60 resistance. However, despite this apparent inertia, a notable shift is occurring on Binance, the world’s leading crypto exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: XRP’s Biggest Holders Just Stopped Sending Tokens to Exchanges: Last Time Was November 2021 Binance Whale Vs Retail Spread Falls To 88% In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, analyst Amr Taha shares an update for the XRP market on the Binance exchange. The relevant indicator in this scenario is the XRP Binance Whale vs Retail Spread metric. For context, the metric measures the difference between large, whale-sized outflows and smaller, retail-sized ones on Binance. By extension of this primary function, the metric is used to tell if the market’s activity is more driven by its whales or by its retail traders.   In the Quicktake post, Taha reveals that the Whale vs Retail Spread metric has fallen to approximately 88.8%, marking one of the weakest readings the indicator has shown since 2024. The crypto expert notes that, while the current reading is still quite positive, it still cannot be ignored that it has dropped significantly from its past highs of around 94%.  Interestingly, periods where the spread was above 94% often reflect stronger retail activity. When retailers (one of the most reactive investor groups) are increasingly making transactions, it paints a parallel picture of growing speculative activity. Historical trends show this adds to XRP’s bullish price behavior. Related Reading: 14,600 Bitcoin Sold in Profit in One Day: Here Is How BTC’s Own Structure Broke It Below $80K What Declining Whale-Retail Spread Means For XRP Price Taha further states that, from a market-cycle perspective, the gap between current readings and the earlier 94%+ zone is widening. This suggests that the outflow patterns on Binance are increasingly deviating from those typically observed in retail-driven markets, especially near cycle tops. Nonetheless, this is not necessarily a bearish signal for XRP, as it only implies that the market would lose some retail speculation and the strength it often brings. Hence, if macro conditions remain stable, the XRP price might only see some mid-term weakness, not enough to trigger a bearish cycle. As of press time, the XRP price stands at $1.41, up 2.28% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Dreamstime, chart from Tradingview

The heaviest resistance sitting above Bitcoin’s current price isn’t a round number or a chart pattern — it’s the break-even point of millions of holders who bought in during the past year and are still underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock: 100,000 BTC Vanish From Exchanges In Under 90 Days One Level Controls The Narrative A CryptoQuant market expert says the “bottom is in” crowd is getting ahead of the data. According to the analyst, Bitcoin must reclaim $88,880 and hold it before any bottom call can be treated as credible. Simply touching that level won’t cut it. The price needs to close above it and stay there — otherwise, the rally is just noise. The reasoning centers on realized price bands, a metric that tracks the average cost basis of different groups of holders. Three cohorts are currently sitting above Bitcoin’s spot price, meaning they bought in at higher levels and are waiting to get back to even. “The bottom is in.” Everyone’s saying it “For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear 88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/woRJLa6UTs — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 7, 2026 The first group — holders from three to six months ago — has a realized price of $88,880. Those who held for 12 to 18 months are sitting at $93,400. The largest and most worrying group, holders from six to 12 months ago, has a cost basis of $111,800 — close to 30% above where Bitcoin was trading when the analysis was published. When Bitcoin climbs back toward those levels, many of those holders are expected to sell. They’re not looking for profit. They just want out. Why The $60,000 Low Sparked Bottom Calls Earlier this year, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 in February — a drop of roughly 52% from its all-time high of $126,200. Since then, the price has climbed more than 37% without setting a new low. That recovery is what fueled the bottom narrative. With no fresh lows on the chart, many market watchers concluded the worst was behind Bitcoin. The Fear and Greed Index backed up the improving mood. Reports show the index climbed from a near-maximum fear reading of five in February all the way to 47 — a neutral reading that signals the market has stabilized compared to its earlier panic state. Related Reading: XRP Market Now Controlled By Whales? Dominance Reaches 91% On Binance Data Over Sentiment IT Tech’s sharpest point came at the end of the analysis. Bottom calls, the analyst wrote, are narratives. Reclaiming and holding $88,880 is data. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $80,250. That puts the key confirmation level roughly $8,000 away. Until that gap closes — and holds — the analyst says the market structure still favors caution over confidence. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market appears to be at a critical phase, as evidenced by data from a recent on-chain evaluation. According to this latest analysis, the Bitcoin price shows few signs of a clear directional trend, with uncertainty as the prevailing structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For $80K Retest, Options Flash Potential Short Squeeze – Details Bull Score Index Within Neutral Territory In an X post on May 2, pseudonymous market analyst Darkfost reveals that Bitcoin is in a transitional phase, based on a reading from the Bitcoin Bull Score Index. For context, this metric primarily measures overall market strength by combining key indicators — such as liquidity, demand, activity, and sentiment — into a single value that indicates whether conditions are bullish or bearish. According to Darkfost, the Bull Score stands at 50 on the metric, a level the market expert notes is neutral. Notably, while a ‘50’ reading is typically taken as a sign of short-term improvement, it still does not reflect a shift in the market’s structure.   The bull index readings are supported by a confluence of three on-chain events. First, while demand might exist in the market, it is still too weak to be of any consequence to Bitcoin’s price. Secondly, a significant number of Bitcoin investors are still holding unrealized losses. The combination of low demand and high unrealized losses further reduces the likelihood of prices seeing significant bullish pressure. This is because investors are increasingly pushed to exit their positions rather than being incentivized to hold or add more. The third component of this dynamic is the event where too few investors are holding while accumulating profits in their bags. This is actually an important metric to monitor, as healthy bullish markets are often characterized by widespread profitability across investors. As such, there is increased confidence to hold their positions and transact more in Bitcoin’s name. Related Reading: ‘Ethereum’s Price Should Have Dropped Already’ – Analyst Explains The On-Chain Signal Behind The Warning Bitcoin To Resume Bull Run? Darkfost notes that Bitcoin is still transitioning into a more defined bullish structure. But even if this were to happen, the analyst notes that we still cannot conclude that a new bull cycle has begun. To be on the safer side, it would be more sensible, implies the analyst, to see such moves as mere recoveries within a broader corrective cycle. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $78,828. According to more data from CoinMarketCap, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is up 0.86% over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

Fewer derivative traders are placing new bets on Bitcoin right now. Open interest has barely moved — up just 1.50% to $55 billion — and more futures positions closed than opened in the past 24 hours. Volume dropped 21% to $30 billion. The market is waiting. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Path To $100K May Happen Before Anyone Understands Why: Analyst Sellers Have Had The Upper Hand For Over A Year The waiting may be approaching an end, according to on-chain data firm CryptoQuant. Analyst Moreno published findings showing Bitcoin is nearing a test of two key metrics that have defined its market structure since early 2024. How it responds to that test, reports indicate, could determine the direction of the next significant move. At the center of the analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV — a metric that measures whether recent buyers are sitting on gains or losses. Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure “A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AsxsyFEyzi — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026 Since early 2024, it has printed a sequence of lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price climbed to new records. When BTC hit roughly $72,000 in March 2024, the MVRV peaked above 1.4. By November 2024, Bitcoin pushed toward $106,000, but the metric failed to reach its previous high. The pattern repeated in July 2025, when Bitcoin hit around $120,000 — yet the MVRV continued lower, tracing out a clear descending trendline. That trendline has acted as a ceiling on every bounce since. The MVRV is now approaching that same ceiling again. Buyers Need To Reclaim A Key Cost Level At the same time, Bitcoin is closing in on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins. This level matters because it splits the short-term holder base between profit and loss. When Bitcoin trades below it, recent buyers are underwater and more likely to sell into any rally. When it trades above, selling pressure eases. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a confirmed move above the Realized Price — paired with the MVRV holding above 1.0 — would mark a meaningful change in structure. It would signal that recent buyers are no longer a consistent drag on price, giving any upward move a stronger foundation. Failure to hold above that level, on the other hand, would leave the existing structure intact. Related Reading: US CLARITY Act Moves Closer To Law After Surprise Stablecoin Yield Update US Spot Buyers Are Still Sitting On The Sidelines Other data points to continued caution. The Coinbase Premium Index — which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, often used as a gauge of US institutional demand — sits at -0.018%. Negative readings suggest US spot buyers are not driving purchases. Bitcoin has recovered from earlier lows to briefly touch $79,200, but has since pulled back to around $78,300. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin prices are consolidating around the $77,000 mark, following a net 2.12% in the last week. The maiden cryptocurrency has registered significant positive traction in April, rising from around $67,000 to its current price level in the last three weeks. However, on-chain data indicates Bitcoin is yet to encounter the major resistance levels that could mark a change in market direction. Related Reading: The Ethereum Golden Triangle That Has Predicted Every Move Shows Where Price Is Headed Realized Price Bands Signal Heavy Resistance Ahead In an X post on April 25, Axel Adler Jr shares information on the key future barriers for Bitcoin if the premier cryptocurrency attempts to sustain its present rally. Using data from CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Realized Price Analysis, Adler Jr. states that BTC bulls face the Herculean task of overcoming price resistance at $82,000 and $91,000 in succession. For context, the data presented highlights $82,000 as the short-term realized price, i.e., the average price at which short-term holders who are investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days bought Bitcoin. It is a key psychological and technical level in the market. When BTC is below the STH realized price, it suggests that most short-term holders, likely new entrants and reactive, are at a loss. Therefore, this cohort of investors is likely to exit the market as the price approaches this level, effectively creating a major resistance point. Meanwhile, the $91,000 level has been identified as the 3m–6m Realized Price, i.e., the average price at which veteran holders acquired Bitcoin. This cohort typically comprises more seasoned participants who have weathered volatility, are less reactive than newer entrants, and exhibit long-term conviction. However, when BTC trades below the 3m–6m realized price, it indicates that this group is largely in the red. Consequently, as the price approaches this level, part of these holders may look to exit at breakeven, inducing selling pressure that creates a key resistance zone. As Bitcoin bids to exit the bear market that began in October 2025, the premier cryptocurrency must overcome both resistance levels, which would signal renewed bullish conviction among both classes of investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin Bitcoin Price Predictions At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $78,028, representing a 0.66% gain over the last 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency is up 12.29% on the monthly chart, largely driven by its bullish performance in April. Amid this rally, CoinCodex analysts are positive on Bitcoin’s prospects, with price targets of $83,262 over the next five days and $80,015 in a month. In the next three months, they predict Bitcoin should trade at $91,575, suggesting slow gains with consolidations in between if this rally persists. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been dwindling massively in recent days. Coins are moving off exchanges at a steady pace, removing available supply ready for purchase.  Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline and are moving into stronger hands. On the other hand, data tracking the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit shows that only about half of the addresses are in profit. Bitcoin Is Disappearing From Exchange Order Books CryptoQuant data tracking Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms shows the aggregate balance has fallen to approximately 2.671 million BTC as of April 24. Notably, reserves in exchanges have fallen from 2.68 million BTC on April 19, with the sharpest leg of the drawdown occurring during Bitcoin’s price climb above $77,700. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Whenever Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces the liquid supply available for immediate selling. This kind of supply reduction will always support price strength, especially when there is enough demand. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued falling throughout the cycle, even as prices corrected. However, perhaps the most telling development lies in how Bitcoin ownership is changing beneath the surface. CryptoQuant’s STH/LTH Supply vs. ETF Flows data, which tracks 30-day position changes across participant cohorts, reveals a decisive redistribution of Bitcoin ownership from weaker hands to stronger ones. Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have added 303,000 BTC to their positions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 16,800 BTC in inflows. Strategy has also added 53,000 BTC to its holdings over the same period.  Meanwhile, short-term holders, the cohort most sensitive to price movements and most likely to sell into strength or panic on weakness, have reduced their aggregate position by about 290,000 BTC. Only Half Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit Even as Bitcoin is being taken off crypto exchanges, profitability metrics show a more subdued outlook of how many investors are currently making money. On-chain data shows the seven-day moving average of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is currently at 52.3%, according to insights from The Block. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell At its peak, above $126,000 in October 2025, 99.66% of the supply was in profit. The drop to near 50% is a reflection of the impact of the correction that followed, bringing a large portion of the market back to breakeven levels. Still, Bitcoin’s recent rally above $77,000 pushed many more holders into profit. Only about 44.1% of the Bitcoin supply was held in profit on April 2. Readings above 90% are a reflection of late-stage bull markets. Therefore, based on that context, the current reading of 52.3% can be viewed through a bullish lens.  The three data streams (declining exchange reserves, net accumulation by long-term holders and institutions) and a supply-in-profit reading at the midpoint show Bitcoin is currently in a period of consolidation. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has climbed back to 50, moving out of outright bearish territory and into what CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno described as a neutral zone. In a post on X, the CryptoQuant head of research wrote: “First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50). In March 2022, the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week, and then the price resumed its decline.” What This Means For Bitcoin Price That comparison is doing most of the work here. Moreno is not presenting the move to 50 as confirmation of a durable trend reversal. He is pointing instead to a prior episode in which conditions improved just enough to leave bearish territory, only for the market to roll over again soon after. The implication is straightforward: neutral is better than bearish, but it is not the same thing as bullish. The CryptoQuant chart helps frame that shift. The index spent much of mid-2025 in stronger territory, with readings frequently above 60 while bitcoin traded broadly in a higher range and pushed above $120,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally May Be A Trap As Whales Sell Into Strength That backdrop changed sharply later in the year. As price weakened into late 2025 and early 2026, the Bull Score Index deteriorated as well, at times dropping toward the bottom of the scale as bitcoin sank into the low-$60,000s. What stands out now is the recovery in the indicator from those depressed readings. By April, the Bull Score had risen back to roughly 50 as bitcoin recovered toward the mid-$70,000 range. In other words, market conditions as measured by CryptoQuant are no longer flashing the same degree of weakness they were earlier in the downturn. But they have not yet crossed into the zone the chart labels as bullish, which begins at 60. Related Reading: Anthony Scaramucci Puts Bitcoin Market Cap At $21 Trillion, So How Much Will 1 BTC Be? That leaves the signal in an awkward but important middle ground. A move from bearish to neutral can indicate that selling pressure is easing and that some underlying conditions are improving. It can also mark nothing more than a pause inside a broader downtrend. Moreno’s 2022 analogy suggests he sees that ambiguity as the key point, rather than the headline value of 50 on its own. The Bull Score Index is one of CryptoQuant’s composite Bitcoin market gauges. Rather than tracking a single datapoint, it measures the share of bullish readings across 10 key indicators tied to network activity, investor profitability, liquidity, and other fundamental and technical conditions. That is why the move to 50 matters: on CryptoQuant’s framework, it suggests that roughly half of the indicators that define a bullish regime have turned constructive again, even if the market is still short of the 60-plus zone the firm treats as outright bullish. At press time, BTC traded at $78,057. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A recent on-chain analysis suggests that Bitcoin is once again showing divergence across its investor cohorts, specifically between institutional players and retail investors. According to this analysis, the Bitcoin price may have more room for growth than we have seen so far in this cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Confirmed, But Is It Real Or A Bull Trap? Bitcoin ETF Flows Align With Coinbase Premium Index Readings In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto research and education firm XWIN Research Japan delves into the dynamics of the Bitcoin market noting that a crucial structural shift is emerging.  The relevant indicators in this analysis are the Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflows, the Coinbase Premium Index, and the Fear & Greed metrics. The ETF inflows measure the net amount of Bitcoin moving into or out of Spot ETFs; the Coinbase Premium tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges.   According to the XWIN Research Japan, ETF Flows and the Coinbase Premium at (~0.56)are displaying a positive correlation signalling aligning inflows with spot demand. However, XWIN Research Japan points to an important distinction: institutional buying actually precedes ETF inflows, not the other way around, as is popularly believed. Hence, the rising values from Coinbase Premium which signal that US investors are buying again,  and are the essential drivers of Bitcoin’s price. Related Reading: XRP Expansion Into Solana Sparks Fresh Demand, Ripple CEO Says Fear And Greed Index Reveals Persistent Retail Fear  On the contrary, the analytics group notes that the Fear & Greed index is telling a less optimistic story. The experts highlight that the index remains quite low, with readings still within the range of 10-30, indicating that retailers are still outside the action.  This “sidelining” of retailers might have roots in the recent losses they incurred, while institutional investors continue to accumulate due to “flow and structure.” Therefore, this behavior creates the classic “Wall of Worry” rally, in which a cryptocurrency’s price (Bitcoin, in this case) rises despite widespread market skepticism. Thus, XWIN Research Japan explains that this could ultimately mean the market is in the early or even mid phase of an “institutional-led uptrend,” in which retail participation is exempt from the factors actively driving prices. In a scenario where retail activity picks up with predominantly bullish intent, the premier cryptocurrency could be in for further upside. As of press time, Bitcoin is valued at $75,703, with CoinMarketCap data showing the world’s leading cryptocurrency has lost 2.24% of its value over the past day. Featured image from PickPik, chart from Tradingview

Small investors have all but disappeared from Bitcoin trading. Data from CryptoQuant shows crypto inflows from accounts holding less than one BTC dropped to a record low on Binance earlier this month — the weakest retail participation in nine years. Related Reading: Bessent Presses Congress On Crypto Rules As Senate Clock Ticks Down Wall Street Moves In While Main Street Sits Out The numbers tell a stark story. While everyday investors pull back, major financial institutions are quietly building their crypto positions. Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF. Charles Schwab opened a waitlist for spot Bitcoin trading. Franklin Templeton announced a dedicated crypto division. Fannie Mae began accepting Bitcoin-backed mortgages. The stablecoin market hit an all-time high in capitalization this year. Exodus CEO JP Richardson summed it up bluntly in a post on X. “This might be the first cycle in crypto history where institutions are in a bull market, and retail doesn’t even know it,” he wrote. Richardson pointed out that in the downturns of 2018 and 2022, institutions pulled back alongside regular investors. This time, he said, they did the opposite. This might be the first cycle in crypto history where institutions are in a bull market and retail doesn’t even know it. Stablecoins at $319B. Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF. Schwab opened a waitlist for spot bitcoin trading. Franklin Templeton announced a crypto… — JP Richardson (@jprichardson) April 13, 2026 Cost Of Living Keeps Small Investors On The Sidelines The reason retail is missing isn’t hard to find. MN Fund founder and crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe put it plainly — most people are struggling to cover their monthly bills. Inflation and rising living costs have eaten into the kind of disposable income that once fueled speculative crypto buying. “That’s why this cycle won’t be the retail cycle,” van de Poppe said. “It’s the institutional cycle and will take longer.” Some retail investors who were active in previous cycles may have shifted their money elsewhere. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, a portion of small-account holders appear to have moved into equities and commodities, both of which have posted strong returns recently. It’s super clear that retail isn’t interested in #Crypto. Almost everyone has a hard time paying their bills on a monthly basis. And then spending that amount of money in such a volatile asset? Hell no. That’s why this cycle won’t be the retail cycle. It’s the institutional… — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 12, 2026 Near-Term Outlook Remains Tied To Macro Pressures Sentiment across crypto markets is still shaky. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff said that near-term conditions are “heavily macro-driven, especially by oil, the dollar, and inflation expectations.” Ko stopped short of calling it a structural breakdown in crypto interest. He described current pressure as a macro risk premium rather than fading demand for digital assets. Related Reading: XRP Eyes $17 After Massive Breakout—Is A 1,100% Surge Next? On the medium-term outlook, Ko said he does not expect oil prices to stay elevated given supply and demand fundamentals — a signal he reads as cautiously positive for markets down the road. What’s clear right now is that the usual retail energy that marked past crypto surges is absent. Whether it returns — and when — may depend less on crypto itself than on how much breathing room everyday people get in their finances. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin surged above the $72,000 level as easing geopolitical tensions sparked a wave of optimism across global markets. The move triggered a sharp rally, clearing key liquidity levels and pushing BTC higher in a short period, with momentum largely driven by headline sentiment rather than underlying structural strength. Will CPI Confirm The Breakout Or Trigger Reversal? Bitcoin reclaimed the $72,000 level following headlines that Israel has agreed to talks with Lebanon, triggering a sharp move higher and sweeping a major liquidity cluster sitting above recent highs. Crypto trader Max Trades has stated on X that this move pushed BTC up roughly 7% over the past three days, and was largely driven by the news.  Related Reading: This Key Bitcoin Metric Suggests That Current Downside Action Will Continue However, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data around the corner, the market is heading straight into a major volatility event. Max pointed out that pumps like this into key events occurring right before high-impact macro releases rarely tend to hold. An investor known as Columbus on X has also noted that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of weakness despite recent attempts to push higher. Using Hyblocks heatmaps, the data reveal that the price action remains heavy with no real acceptance above the $72,000 supply zone. Thus, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside until BTC can sustain acceptance back above the $72,000 zone. On the downside, liquidity pools around $68,000 to 69,000 remain the primary target for continuation. What A Drop In Profit Supply Signals For The Market The current state of the Bitcoin market is revealing a deeper shift under the surface. A verified author for CryptoQuant Darkfost highlighted that the BTC profit supply has dropped to levels typically associated with bear market conditions. Only about 59% of the BTC total supply remains in profit, a level close to what was observed during the last bear market.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Has Printed A Historically Aggressive Recovery Setup, What To Expect Currently, nearly 1 BTC out of every 2 is being held at a loss. Historically, the average bull sits at around 75% of supply in profit, which places the market well below its typical levels. Darkfost explained that while this may seem counterintuitive, the market needs investors in profit to sustain a positive momentum.  According to the data, the 50% level appears to be a key threshold. Although the market hasn’t reached that level yet, the past cycles show that bear market bottoms often form around this area. This trend is crucial as it will help assess when losses of profits become significant across the market. Thus, the strategy remains consistent accumulation when losses reach extreme levels, allowing investors to position ahead of the majority. On the flip side, when profit supply approaches 100%, it often signals overheated conditions where reduced exposure is more favorable. Despite the pressure, the current environment appears more conducive to accumulation than to selling. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s active address momentum has sunk to its weakest point since April 2018, even as a separate index tracking overall network health has crossed into what analysts call a bull phase for the first time in roughly a year. Related Reading: South Korea Imposes 5-Minute Audit Rule On Crypto Platforms A Market Driven By Fewer, More Committed Players The active addresses momentum metric dropped to -0.25 on April 6, according to CryptoQuant data. The figure tracks how fast the number of active addresses is changing, and a negative reading points to shrinking user participation. Low readings like this have persisted since July 2025 — a stretch that mirrors a similar period in 2024 that was followed by a 35% price drop. Crypto analyst Gaah, writing on CryptoQuant, says the numbers reflect the absence of short-term traders from the market. What remains, the analyst argues, is a base of long-term holders focused on steady buying rather than trading. Yet even as daily user activity contracts, wallets tied to long-term and retail-linked investors have been filling up. Data shows BTC held in accumulating address cohorts has reached 4.37 million coins as of Tuesday — more than double the roughly 2 million held by the same group in early 2024. Retail-linked addresses alone added approximately 857,000 BTC, while wallets that buy at regular intervals with few outflows grew their combined holdings to nearly 1.30 million BTC. All of this happened while Bitcoin’s price stayed below $70,000 for the entire first quarter of 2026. Exchange Inflows Slow To A Fraction Of Prior Cycles Coin movement through centralized exchanges has dropped sharply compared to earlier growth periods. During the 2023 to 2024 expansion, inflows from highly active addresses often ran between 1.2 million and 1.5 million BTC. Reports indicate recent figures average between 300,000 and 350,000 BTC — roughly a quarter of that pace. Less coin is cycling through trading platforms, and more is being held off-market in long-term storage. That shift is tightening the available supply. When fewer coins sit on exchanges ready to be sold, the liquid supply shrinks, and the market becomes more sensitive to any uptick in demand. Network Activity Index Crosses A Key Threshold The CryptoQuant Bitcoin network activity index climbed to 3,600 from 3,320 on March 22. The index pulls together transaction counts and broader throughput signals into a single reading. It crossed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024, a level CryptoQuant associates with a bull phase — the first such signal since April 2025. Related Reading: XRP Headed For A Price Shock, Japan’s Financial Heavyweight Says The split between the two metrics tells an unusual story. One index is flashing positive. The other is at an eight-year low. Reports suggest the current phase is being pushed along by accumulation rather than by widespread network use or new participants entering the market. Bitcoin was trading at $72,045 at the time of publication, up nearly 5% on the day. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 after news of a conditional U.S.–Iran ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin Bounces Back… For Now According to today’s QCP Market Colour, after the announcement of the ceasefire risk assets rallied, equities rose and oil cooled into the low-$90s. However, the report warns that all of this looks more like a temporary pause than a lasting resolution. Let’s not forget that, according to President Donald Trump himself, the ceasefire hinges on how Iran handles the Strait of Hormuz in the weeks ahead. ???? President Donald J. Trump makes a statement on Iran: pic.twitter.com/9mqTayL0Q3 — The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 7, 2026 The energy infrastructure attacks in Saudi Arabia show how fragile the de-escalation remains. Related Reading: Binance Deploys PRER Volatility Shield — Here’s How New Price Bands Could Hit Your Orders This rebound is supported by risk repricing, not conviction. According to the market colour, the macro picture remains uneven. U.S. payrolls rebounded, but softer labor data keeps the Fed juggling growth concerns and energy-driven inflation. The upcoming inflation report (CPI) due this week may determine if Bitcoin’s move back above $71,000 is sustainable or just a short‑lived bounce. Options data from QCP shows compressed front-end vols, but downside skew remains bid. Hedge demand is still strong. Notable call interest sits between $75K–$85K, while support lies around $60K–$65K, making $74K a key breakout level. Exchange Netflow Shows Why Bitcoin Is Still Defensive Despite the price bounce, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows exchange reserves remain high, suggesting cautious sentiment rather than full accumulation. The report of Novaque Research from CryptoQuant explains that Binance is currently holding about 637.6K BTC in reserves, while Coinbase Advanced holds roughly 866.6K BTC. Both are still tracking well below their levels from earlier in 2025. Bitcoin exchange reserve on Coinbase. Source: CryptoQuant. The split between exchanges matters, according to the report. Coinbase is more closely tied to US institutional flows, whereas Binance better reflects global crypto‑native liquidity. Coinbase’s reserves have stayed tight and mostly sideways after a long downtrend, hinting that bigger players are not eager to bring coins back on‑exchange to sell. Binance’s balances have rebounded more visibly, but they still sit below previous highs and under the 50‑day average. Bitcoin exchange reserve on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant. These signals suggest positioning is cautious rather than capitulatory: holders are wary, but they are not behaving as if they must dump Bitcoin at any price. Exchange netflow supports that view, CryptoQuant believes. Overall exchange netflow is slightly negative at around -289.6 BTC, and since February there has been a consistent tilt toward outflows, only occasionally punctuated by sharp deposit spikes. In a genuine internal market break, the analysis explains, you would typically see persistent positive netflows as investors move coins onto platforms to sell into weakness. Instead, the data still shows Bitcoin being pulled off exchanges on many sessions. Bitcoin exchange netflow on all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant. This does not automatically imply a bullish outcome, but it does highlight that Bitcoin continues to be supported by a holder base more inclined to remove supply than to keep recycling it back into the market. Related Reading: Crypto Trust Crisis — The “Kim Jong‑Un Test” Is Exposing Secret North Korean Moles Summing Up Bitcoin’s defensive setup mirrors institutional hesitation. Traders may be waiting for a clear macro or volatility shift before committing fresh capital. The short-term rally hinges on headlines, not fundamentals. Unless the ceasefire holds and inflation softens, Bitcoin could struggle to break $74K convincingly. For traders, this means tight ranges and tactical plays, not full-risk exposure, at least until the next macro signal. Bitcoin bounced back and reclaimed $72k earlier today. At the moment of writing, BTC trades for the low $71ks on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview. Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

Shiba Inu’s value is now down by about 35% on a yearly basis, with the meme coin trading around $0.000006 as of early April 2026, a far cry from the $0.00000923 range it touched in early January.  The meme coin has spent the past three months on an extended decline, which has continued into the recent weekend. Several converging developments explain why the decline has been so persistent and why the road to recovery is currently uncertain. On-Chain Weakness And Stalled Shibarium Adoption The most damaging blow to SHIB’s fundamental case is from its own Layer-2 network. Since Shibarium’s launch in August 2023, the meme coin’s price movement has been tied to interest and the activity on the Layer-2 network.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s 1,549% Spike: Can Bulls Take Control Again And Trigger An Explosive Rally? However, on-chain data shows a clear drop in user activity and demand across the network. This drop in Shibarium user activity kicked off in September 2025, when the network faced one of the largest attacks in its history, and the consequences extended beyond the immediate financial loss.  Prior to the incident, daily transactions processed on Shibarium were in the millions; after the exploit, they plummeted to mere thousands. Currently, daily transactions sit at around 1,230 over the past 24 hours, with activity dipping as low as 557 transactions on April 4, according to data from Shibariumscan.  That said, it is also worth noting that Shibarium recently underwent a major infrastructure upgrade, including a full reindexing of its backend systems, which may have contributed to the temporary slowdown in transaction throughput in the past few days. Traders Continue Pulling Out With Fading Confidence The derivatives market is also showing signs of fading confidence in Shiba Inu. Recent data reveals a noticeable drop in open interest, meaning traders are closing positions and stepping away from Shiba Inu. According to data from Coinglass, Shiba Inu’s open interest across major exchanges currently stands at $54.25 million, representing a 16% decline from the $65.23 million recorded around this time last month.  Related Reading: 39 Billion SHIB: Shiba Inu’s Woes Are Far From Over As Sell-Offs Continue The decline is even more pronounced when looking at its yearly high. Back in January, open interest was sitting at $145.40 million, which means current levels reflect a steep 63% drop since then. Even more concerning is the rise in exchange inflows, with large amounts of SHIB being moved into trading platforms, which is typically a precursor to selling pressure. According to data from CryptoQuant, the Shiba Inu netflow to exchanges is at a positive 6.9 billion SHIB in the past 24 hours, which means more Shiba Inu is being sent to crypto exchanges than those leaving. Interestingly, this netflow figure recently reached as high as 39 billion SHIB within a 24-hour period. However, SHIB’s price troubles are structural to the entire meme coin niche. The market capitalization of all meme coins is currently at $34 billion from a year-to-date high of over $109.7 billion, according to data from Coingecko. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

The Binance exchange has registered a surge in derivatives activity triggered by an ongoing pullback in gold’s price. The highly priced commodity and world’s largest asset has experienced a steady price decline since around February amid exacerbating geopolitical tensions and concerns about global inflation levels.  Related Reading: Not Binance: Bitcoin Analyst Who Bought At $1 Revealed What Really Caused The October 10 Crash Binance Users Show Heavy Interest In Gold Market  In an X post by renowned analyst Darkfost, gold has declined by more than 17% from its all-time high above $5,300, marking a significant correction following an initial prolonged rally that began in 2024, resulting in a net gain of 160%. Considering the unstable macro environment in 2025, marked by impromptu tariffs and potential trade wars, gold emerged as the choice haven for many investors, while heavy inflows encouraged traders to build multiple leveraged positions.     As prices began to reverse, these leveraged positions became vulnerable, i.e., margin calls were triggered, forcing automatic liquidations. Voluntary liquidations were recorded in some cases where traders preferred to take profits or move to protect other positions. During the most recent gold price decline, gold futures trading activity on Binance reached record levels since its launch in January. Notably, as gold approached $4,400 on March 23, daily futures trading volume on Binance exceeded $6.6 billion.  Meanwhile, the cumulative volume over seven days surpassed $17 billion, representing the magnanimous interest in gold by Binance users. Notably, total trading activity since the launch of gold futures on the exchange has also now crossed $72 billion. This development represents a heavy appetite for gold access by many Binance users, who are now operating through recently launched tokenized exposure.  These traders appear to be actively seeking alternative hedges and diversification strategies. The intersection of cautious sentiment, capital rotation, and increased derivatives activity highlights a newfound perpetual market set with high potential and unknown implications on the exchange’s digital asset markets. Related Reading: XRP Positioned At The Center Of Wall Street’s Tokenization Boom — Is A Rally Emerging? Crypto Market Overview According to CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap crashed to $2.28 trillion, reflecting a 3.81% loss. Amid this downward move, underlying sentiment also remains fragile, with the Fear & Greed Index at 22, firmly in “fear” territory. This cautious mood is further supported by a net outflow of $360.60 million, signaling that some investors are still reducing exposure or reallocating capital. Market dominance also shows capital concentration in major assets, with Bitcoin at 57.9% and Ethereum at 10.5%. The premier cryptocurrency is valued at $65,908, showing a 6.63% loss over the last seven days. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Ethereum whales are now back in profit as the ETH price continues to climb, defying the broader market downtrend. Data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicate that these whales are investors with wallets holding over 100,000 ETH. The sudden move into profitability raises the question of whether these large-scale investors will hold their positions or sell immediately, as key historical chart patterns signal a potential price surge for ETH in the coming months.   Ethereum whales are reportedly back in the green after sitting on a pile of paper losses following ETH’s persistent price decline this year. According to CryptoQuant, this is the first time that whales holding over 100,000 ETH have become profitable since early February 2026.  Ethereum Whales Move Back Into Profit Zone While a shift into the profit zone is typically viewed as a bullish signal, it also highlights the potential for large-scale investors to sell and take profit. Market analysts CryptoTice and CW have also spotlighted this recent movement on X, offering insights into its broader significance.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Won’t Crash To $1,500 Until This Happens First, Analyst Reveals In his analysis, CW pointed out that areas where large whales previously incurred losses are often seen as market bottoms. He explained that when these whales return to profitability, the moment they do so can mark the start of a major uptrend. Given ETH whales’ latest move into profitability, CW suggests the current market could be at the beginning of a bullish reversal. Sharing a different yet equally bullish perspective, Crypto Tice highlighted a recurring historical pattern in which whales returning to profitability triggered significant price rallies for ETH. He emphasized that wallets holding above 100,000 ETH don’t flip back into profit by accident. According to him, every single time this has happened, ETH has recorded a 25% increase within three months, a 50% rally in six months, and a staggering 300% gain within the year.  CryptoTice noted that these large-scale whale addresses have survived every market cycle, experiencing both bull runs and bear market crashes. He stated that they were the ones that accumulated at the bottom while everyone else sold due to panic as broader volatility and negative sentiment spread.  Based on his analysis, if Ethereum perfectly follows the same historical pattern, it could see its price skyrocket from its current price of above $2,150 to roughly $2,687 in three months, approximately $3,335 in six months, and about $8,600 within the year.  Analyst Identifies New Sell Wall For ETH Whales In a more recent analysis, CW shared a potential sell wall for Ethereum whales looking to take profits. In his ETH chart, he marked $2,350 as the next sell wall, representing a roughly 9.3% increase from current levels.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Is Headed For $8,500 If This Happens At the same time, the analyst noted that Ethereum whales are still on a strong buying spree. He stated that these large-scale investors have continued to accumulate ETH even during sideways movement, matching the scale of the net buying seen among Bitcoin whales.  Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has identified an eight-year convergence pattern on the Ethereum (ETH)-Bitcoin (BTC) trading pair chart, suggesting it could signal the long-awaited onset of an altcoin season. Although rumors of an altcoin season have circulated in the crypto space since before 2025, such a phase has yet to materialize, underscoring the persistent volatility in alternative cryptocurrencies throughout this bull market. Despite this prolonged delay, the analyst argues that the new convergence structure could become a catalyst that fuels an altcoin season even more powerful than the one observed in 2021.   Ethereum Chart Structure Signals Powerful Altcoin Season Crypto analyst CW has presented a new technical analysis suggesting a major altcoin season in this cycle. Supported by a multi-year chart structure, the analysis centers on the ETH/BTC trading pair and outlines a unique convergence pattern that has been developing since mid-2017.  Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Struggling Again, And Here’s What’s Behind It In his post on X, CW predicts that this convergence pattern could break during the current bull market cycle. The structure is visible on the weekly chart as a large descending triangle or wedge that started when ETH/BTC reached a peak around 0.16. Since that high, the pair has been compressing between a descending resistance line and a flat horizontal support level near the 0.020 zone.  Price action in the chart shows that ETH/BTC hit this peak during the 2021 bull market but failed to break the upper descending trendline of the converging pattern. Following this, the pair dropped back sharply and has continued to trend lower, now pressing into the very tip of the convergence pattern near the 0.029 level.  This suggests that ETH/BTC is approaching its final stage near the apex of the descending triangle pattern. The narrowing distance between the resistance and the support suggests the market could be at a critical juncture. CW suggests that a breakout from this point could end the trading pair’s eight-year compression within the convergence pattern. If this happens, it could signal a major shift in strength from BTC to ETH, and finally to the broader altcoin market, marking the potential onset of an altcoin season in 2026.   2026 Altcoin Season To Surpass 2021 Boom CW emphasized in his post that the altcoin season he anticipates in this bull cycle could exceed the strength of the 2021 cycle, mirroring the explosive scale of the 2017 cycle. He argued that many investors underestimate how powerful the 2017 bull run was, noting that it delivered wider, more aggressive gains across the altcoin market than the more selective rally in 2021.  Related Reading: Is The Altcoin Market Dead? Why These Cryptocurrencies Have Failed To Move In a previous analysis, CW shared a separate chart from CryptoQuant, adding further weight to his outlook for a 2026 altcoin season. The chart, which tracks the CEX volume ratio of non-BTC assets versus Bitcoin, excluding stablecoins, compares the current market setup to the 2021 altcoin season.  In both periods, altcoin trading activity on centralized exchanges was consistently higher than Bitcoin’s volume. However, CW notes that this activity has been running for much longer in 2026 than in 2021. He believes this sustained volume, coupled with a potential breakout from ETH/BTC’s current convergence pattern, strengthens the case of a powerful altcoin season in 2026. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com