He stressed long-term commitment, prioritizing the development of decentralized systems over short-term price fluctuations.
Crypto sentiment was hit as Gemini plans to close operations in several regions and cut staff, while spot bitcoin ETF flows turned negative.
Crypto’s latest drawdown hit the majors in size: bitcoin fell about 8.1% over the past 24 hours and is down roughly 29.5% over the past 30 days, while Ether dropped about 9.4% on the day and about 41.4% over the past month; XRP was off about 10.3% in 24 hours and roughly 42.7% over 30 days, and Solana slid about 12.3% on the day and around 42.8% over the month. While many point to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as next US Federal Reserve chair, renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger argued on X on Friday that it is the cumulative effect of narrative fatigue, weakening marginal demand, and a macro regime wake-up call that hit after the market had already started to roll over. What Went Wrong For Crypto? Krüger framed the move as a momentum break that turned into a seller’s market. In his telling, the “10/10 slaughter” — a nod to the sharpness of the unwind, with a pointed aside about whether he’d “get sued” for mentioning Binance — was less a mystery than a pileup of factors that steadily drained risk appetite and then yanked away the last hope of a liquidity tailwind. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback He pointed first to the hangover from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), and then to a reversal in flows tied to criminal networks. Krüger said “major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October,” describing it as a material shift in demand that the market may have been underappreciating while price was still holding up. What went wrong with crypto 1. 10/10 slaughter (will I get sued if I mention Binance?). 2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) hangover. 3. Reversed flows from crime syndicates: major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October. 4. Quantum… — Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) February 6, 2026 Two other themes in his post leaned explicitly on fear and opportunity cost. Krüger flagged “quantum fears (real)” as a psychological overhang, and then argued that the AI boom has become a direct competitor for both capital and talent. He said the pivot isn’t subtle: “capital pivoting to AI,” “talent pivoting to AI,” and even “miners pivoting to AI,” all of which tighten the loop around crypto’s ability to reaccelerate. In parallel, he suggested the market’s global bid has narrowed. Krüger cited a “perception of Bitcoin as American,” adding that there are “few Chinese buyers,” a contrast with the participation he said had been “behind the metals uptrend in large numbers.” He also described a structural shift in who “owns” the trade. “The Swamp & Institutions taking over,” he wrote, arguing the market has moved from “Cypherpunk/Rebel tech to ETF tech.” In his framing, crypto used to be “for misfits & geniuses,” but now “it’s a line item in a 401k” — a change that, in his view, crowds out the volatility-driven momentum that historically pulled in OGs and retail. Other pressure points were more familiar: political risk around Trump association (“what happens once Democrats are back?”), “minimal innovation (since Hyperliquid),” and the brutal reflexivity of the Solana memecoin cycle — “Solana casino massacre (thank Pump Fun & the Memecoin Supercycle).” He paired that with a supply critique: “There are 29.91 million cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap,” he wrote, warning that “almost every coin in the top 200 is grossly overvalued” alongside “never ending” launches that “pump then dump to oblivion where only insiders profit.” He even declared the “dead digital gold narrative” as another drag on marginal buyers. Related Reading: Crypto Isn’t Broken, It’s A US Liquidity Squeeze, Says Raoul Pal The mechanical result, Krüger said, was straightforward: “sellers dumping more aggressively than usual on every pump,” while “buyers not showing up to buy the dips as much any longer.” Then came what he framed as the macro trigger that hardened the selloff. “And then came the Warsh nomination (beating Hassett and Rieder), and the market suddenly became deeply aware that Warsh is a strong advocate of a small balance sheet: goodbye Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) dreams, hello Quantitative Tightening (QT) fears. That is what happened.” Krüger stressed he was describing the past, not forecasting the next move, arguing the damage has already been done. Still, he noted that “volume, liquidations, implied volatility and options skew indicate that a local bottom is likely in.” In replies, the conversation turned toward what crypto might still be for in an AI-led cycle. A user said the rotation “makes sense,” but argued the bigger upside is in “agent stacks” that could eventually “manage crypto liquidity,” positioning crypto rails as infrastructure for machine-to-machine value transfer. Krüger largely agreed on the asymmetry. “I don’t know. I was hoping momentum. Momentum can do magic,” he wrote. “I’m very concerned about points #3 and #4. Saylor just started a new initiative on #4, maybe that helps. Reality is crypto can’t compete with AI. It’s impossible. But it could be used by AI. That’s high quality hopium right there. Agent-to-Agent payments would be better served on crypto rails.” At press time, BTC traded at $66,029. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Arca CIO Jeff Dorman calls the current market slide “one of the strangest crypto sell-offs ever,” arguing that price action is increasingly disconnected from both macro conditions and sector fundamentals. Why The Crypto Sell-Off Is “Strange” In a post on X, Dorman notes that traditional risk assets are behaving exactly as textbooks would suggest: “equity, credit and gold/silver markets are launching to ATHs every month because the Fed is cutting rates, QT is ending, consumer spending is strong, record earnings, AI demand still incredibly strong.” Yet crypto continues to grind lower, even as most of the usual bearish narratives have been invalidated. “MSTR isn’t selling, Tether isn’t insolvent, DATs aren’t selling, NVDA isn’t blowing up, the Fed isn’t turning hawkish, the tariff wars aren’t restarting,” he writes, before admitting: “I still have no idea why crypto is down.” In his accompanying essay “The Selling Nobody Can Explain” (Dec. 1, 2025), Dorman details a market that has fallen in seven of the past eight weeks, with only a brief Thanksgiving rally before renewed selling as Japanese markets reopened. The first leg lower followed the October 10 exchange outages at Binance and others, weeks ahead of the FOMC meeting. Much of November’s weakness was retrospectively ascribed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone, which drove December rate-cut odds from “almost a 100% chance” to “as low as 30%.” Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up What makes the late-November continuation unusual, he argues, is that the macro backdrop has since turned supportive again. Core PPI printed at 2.6% versus 2.7% expected, early post-shutdown labor data point to a cooling jobs market, and December cut odds have rebounded to around 90%. Equities “staged a fierce rally to close November in positive territory,” and betting markets are effectively pricing in Kevin Hassett, a known policy dove, as the next Fed chair. Against that backdrop, Dorman asks, “why are digital assets still selling off on every piece of bad news but failing to rally with good news?” His answer is stark: “I have no idea.” One working explanation is that the marginal seller is no longer crypto-native. Dorman cites Bill Ackman’s remark that his Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac positions are trading in sympathy with crypto, despite orthogonal fundamentals. The comment, he argues, reflects the growing overlap between TradFi, retail and digital-asset investors. What was “a pretty isolated industry” is now deeply integrated into multi-asset portfolios, and in those structures “investments in crypto seem to be the first to go.” The crypto ecosystem itself is highly transparent; by contrast, “TradFi remains more of a black box. And that black box is dominating flows and activity right now.” Wall Street Is Coming Dorman revisits Arca’s framework that token value is a mix of financial, utility and social components. With sentiment at cycle lows, it is no surprise that assets whose value is mostly social – Bitcoin, L1s, NFTs, memecoins – are under pressure. The surprise is that tokens with stronger financial or utility anchors have not consistently outperformed. “While some do (BNB), most do not (DeFi tokens, PUMP). So that’s a bit odd.” Equally unusual, he says, is the absence of “cavalry” buyers; instead, more players are “piling into the weakness, expecting more weakness,” leaning on momentum rather than fundamentals. Related Reading: 30% Of Crypto Market Makers Got Wiped, Mike Novogratz Says On MicroStrategy, Dorman reiterates that the firm “will never be forced sellers,” despite recurring headlines. On Tether, he pushes back against a rapid narrative shift from mega-valuation to supposed insolvency. With USDT roughly 70% backed by cash and equivalents and 30% by gold, bitcoin and loans, he argues that “any questions about their liquidity are just silly,” given the implausibility of 70% same-day redemptions. Solvency risks would require large losses across that 30% sleeve, which he sees as manageable given the parent company’s profitability. Ultimately, Dorman reduces the puzzle to flows and market structure. “There are no buyers within the crypto walls today,” he writes. Crypto-native investors are “exhausted,” and the Wall Street firms that are “coming” into the asset class “aren’t here today.” Until crypto assets can be purchased seamlessly within existing mandates and systems at institutions like Vanguard, State Street, BNY, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, “they just won’t do it.” For now, he concludes, the persistent weakness “certainly has us scratching our heads.” At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.9 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As the latest US government shutdown ends and markets refocus on macro plumbing, Raoul Pal has sketched out a strikingly liquidity-heavy roadmap on X – one that, in his framework, has direct implications for crypto. “So now the US Gov has reopened, what’s next?” Pal asks. He immediately points to the Treasury General Account (TGA): “Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balance sheet will crawl higher. We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.” Mechanically, TGA drawdowns push cash back into bank reserves and money markets, reversing the reserve drain that built up while the government was partially shut. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has already confirmed that quantitative tightening (QT) will end on December 1, 2025, shifting from active balance-sheet reduction to full reinvestment of maturing Treasuries and a more “maintenance” stance. When Will Crypto Prices Rise Again? Pal’s point is that both channels tilt the system toward more dollars sloshing through funding markets, a backdrop he has long argued is constructive for risk assets, including crypto. The near-term risk, in his view, is a classic year-end funding squeeze. “The next key step is to avoid a Year End funding squeeze. Expect several ‘temporary’ measures to add liquidity. Term Funding and SRF operations are most likely.” Related Reading: SEC Chair Sets Out Plans For Crypto Taxonomy To Define Digital Asset Classification Here he is referring to term repo or funding facilities and the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which the Fed can scale up to backstop banks’ access to cash if overnight rates spike. That reading aligns with recent Fed communication that elevated SRF usage and tighter money-market conditions were central reasons for ending QT early. Pal then escalates from tactical tools to structural regulation: “That will eventually morph into the desperately needed changes to the SLR to allow banks to absorb more issuance and re-lever their balance sheets. This is a big liquidity bazooka. Expect in Q1. SLR should lower rates as banks buy more bonds.” The Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) caps large banks’ overall balance-sheet size, regardless of asset risk. Loosening it for Treasuries and reserves has been debated for years as a way to let dealers warehouse more government debt without breaching constraints. If regulators move in that direction, it would, as Pal notes, free capacity for banks to buy more bonds and could exert downward pressure on yields—again easing financial conditions. Related Reading: The 2025 Year-End Crypto Outlook: The Catalysts That Will Decide Everything For crypto, that matters indirectly: Pal’s core macro thesis is that improving liquidity and lower real yields are the primary tailwinds for digital assets. Regulation is explicitly on his radar too: “Also expect CLARITY Act for crypto to begin to get finalized.” The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (“CLARITY Act”) has already passed the US House and is now before the Senate. It would define digital asset categories and divide oversight between the CFTC and SEC, replacing much of the current “regulation by enforcement” model. Pal’s remark signals his expectation that the shutdown’s end clears the way for renewed legislative momentum – a key piece of the institutional puzzle for non-bitcoin crypto. He closes by broadening the lens to global and fiscal policy: “There will also be stimulus payments and the Big Beautiful Bill fiscal goosing. China will continue balance sheet expansion. Europe will add fiscal stimulus or extra spending. The debts must be rolled and the Gov wants to super heat the economy into the Mid-Terms. This is the Liquidity Flood…. the spice must flow.” Taken together, Pal is describing a synchronised regime: post-shutdown TGA spending, the end of QT, potential SLR relief, progressing US crypto legislation, and ongoing fiscal and monetary support in China and Europe. For crypto investors who share his liquidity-centric lens, the message is not subtle: the macro “spice,” in his view, is about to flow again. At press time, the total crypto market cap dropped to $3.24 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Raoul Pal believes the crypto cycle is not nearing a peak but entering a longer, more powerful expansion that can run well into 2026, driven by a global liquidity uptrend tied to government debt dynamics. In a special Sept. 25 “Everything Code” masterclass with Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel, the Real Vision co-founder laid out a tightly interlocked framework connecting demographics, debt, liquidity and the business cycle to asset returns—arguing that crypto and tech remain the only asset classes structurally capable of outpacing what he calls the hidden debasement of fiat. Everything Code: Liquidity Is Crypto’s Master Switch “The biggest macro variable of all time,” Pal said, “is that global governments and central banks are increasing liquidity to manage debt at 8% a year.” He separated that ongoing debasement from measured inflation, warning investors to think in hurdle rates, not headlines: “You’ve got an 11% hurdle rate on any investment that you have. If your investments are not hitting 11% you are getting poorer.” Pal and Bittel’s “Everything Code” starts with trend GDP as the sum of population growth, productivity and debt growth. With working-age populations declining and productivity subdued, public debt has filled the gap—structurally lifting debt-to-GDP and hard-wiring the need for liquidity. “Demographics are destiny,” Pal said, pointing to a falling labor-force participation rate that, in GMI’s work, mirrors the inexorable rise in government debt as a share of GDP. The bridge between the two, they argue, is the liquidity toolkit—balance sheets, the Treasury General Account (TGA), reverse repos and banking-system channels—deployed in cycles to finance interest costs that the economy cannot organically bear. “If trend growth is ~2% and rates are 4%, that gap has to be monetized,” Pal said. “It’s a story as old as the hills.” Related Reading: All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red – What’s The Root Cause? Bittel then mapped what he called the “dominoes.” GMI’s Financial Conditions Index—an econometric blend of commodities, the dollar and rates—leads total liquidity by roughly three months; total liquidity leads the ISM manufacturing index by about six months; and the ISM, in turn, sets the tone for earnings, cyclicals and crypto beta. “Our job is to live in the future,” Bittel said. “Financial conditions lead the ISM by nine months. Liquidity leads by six. That sequence is what risk markets actually trade.” In that sequence, crypto is not an outlier but a high-beta macro asset. “Bitcoin is the ISM,” Bittel said, noting that the same diffusion-index dynamics that govern small-cap equities, cyclicals, crude and emerging markets also map onto BTC and ETH. As the cycle accelerates from sub-50 ISM toward the high-50s, risk appetite migrates down the curve: first from BTC into ETH, then into large alternative L1s and, only later, into smaller caps—coinciding with falling BTC dominance. Pal cautioned investors who expect “instant altseason” that they are fighting the phasing of the real economy: “It always goes into the next safest asset first… only when the ISM is really pushing higher and dominance is falling hard do you get the rest.” Part of the recent “sideways chop,” they argued, reflected a sharp TGA rebuild—an exogenous liquidity drain that disproportionately impacts the far end of the risk curve. Bittel highlighted that the $500 billion rate of change since mid-July effectively removed fuel that otherwise would have buoyed crypto prices, while stressing that the drain is nearing an inflection. He also flagged DeMark timing signals pointing to a reversal in the TGA’s contribution to net liquidity. “That should now reverse and work lower into year-end, which then will drive our liquidity composites higher,” he said, adding that the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet at all-time highs has partially offset US drags. Against that backdrop, the pair contend that the forthcoming 12 months are critical. “We’ve got $9 trillion of debt to roll over the next 12 months,” Pal said. “This is the 12 months where maximum money printing comes.” Their base case has policy rates moving lower into a still-subdued but improving cycle, with central banks focused on lagging mandates—unemployment and core services inflation—while early-cycle inflation breadth remains contained. Bittel underscored the sequencing inside inflation itself: commodities first, then goods, with shelter disinflation mechanically lagging, giving central banks cover to cut even as growth accelerates. The implication for portfolio construction, Pal argued, is radical. “Diversification is dead. The best thing is hyper-concentration,” he said, framing the choice not as a taste for volatility but as arithmetic survival against debasement. In GMI’s long-horizon tables, most traditional assets underperform the combined debasement-plus-inflation hurdle, while the Nasdaq earns excess returns over liquidity and Bitcoin dwarfs both. “What is the point of owning any other asset?” Pal asked rhetorically. “This is the super-massive black hole of assets, which is why we personally are all-in on crypto… It’s the greatest macro trade of all time.” Related Reading: Crypto Bloodbath Shakes Market—But Is The Real Storm Still To Come? Bittel overlaid Bitcoin’s log-regression channel—what Pal called the “network adoption rails”—on the ISM to illustrate how time and cycle amplitude interact. Because adoption drifts price targets higher through time, longer cycles mechanically point to higher potential outcomes. He showed illustrative channel levels tied to hypothetical ISM prints to explain the mechanism, from mid-$200Ks if the ISM rises into the low-50s to materially higher if the cycle extends toward the low-60s. The numbers were not presented as forecasts but as a map for how cycle strength translates into range-bound fair value bands. Macro Liquidity Extends The Crypto Bull Run Critically, Pal and Bittel argued the current cycle differs from 2020–2021, when both liquidity and the ISM peaked in March 2021, truncating the run. Today, they say, liquidity is re-accelerating into the debt-refinancing window and the ISM is still below 50 with forward indicators pointing up, setting up a 2017-style Q4 impulse with seasonal tailwinds—and, unlike 2017, a higher probability that strength spills into 2026 because the refinancing cycle itself has lengthened. “It is extremely unlikely that it tops this year,” Pal said. “The ISM just isn’t there, and global liquidity isn’t either.” The framework also locates crypto within a broader secular S-curve. Pal contrasted fiat debasement, which lifts asset prices, with GDP-anchored earnings and wages, which lag—explaining why traditional valuation optics look stretched and why owning long-duration, network-effect assets becomes existential. He placed crypto’s user growth at roughly double the internet’s at a comparable stage and argued that tokens uniquely allow investors to own the infrastructure layer of the next web. On total addressable value, he applied the same log-trend framing to the entire digital asset market, sketching a path from roughly $4 trillion today toward a potential $100 trillion by the early 2030s if the space tracks its “fair value” adoption channel, with Bitcoin ultimately occupying a role analogous to gold inside a much larger digital asset stack. Pal closed with operational advice consistent with a longer, liquidity-driven expansion: maintain exposure to proven, large-cap crypto networks, avoid leverage that forces capitulation during routine 20–30% drawdowns, and match time horizon to the macro clock rather than headlines. “We’re four percent of the way there,” he said. “Your job is to not mess this up.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.67 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Macro analyst Alex Krüger says the weekend’s sell-off has likely marked a tradable low for the crypto market, arguing that the move closely mirrors the 2024 “August crash” that bottomed on a Monday. “I see the current move as a smaller scale replay of last year’s August crash (which bottomed on Monday),” Krüger wrote on late-Friday in a post on X, adding that he would “be looking to add to longs on Monday, ideally before the US cash open,” if the overnight session remained panicky. He framed the decline as a classic shakeout rather than the start of a new downtrend. Krüger’s read hinges on macro first, crypto second. He notes that 2024’s August break came in a sequence—BoJ tightening, a hawkish FOMC, then weak payrolls—and he sees the present sequence as “similar.” There was no carry-trade impulse this time, he said, but markets digested a modestly hawkish Fed, mixed Big Tech earnings, a hotter-than-expected PCE inflation print, and finally a “horrid” US payrolls report—after which risk assets slid in tandem and crypto tracked equities lower. The latest PCE data, released July 31, showed headline inflation accelerating to 2.6% year over year and core PCE at 2.8%, a notch above forecasts—what Krüger summarized as “slightly hot.” Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Surge 27% In July: $142M Stolen As 2025 Trend Continues Earnings tape-bombs reinforced the risk-off mood. Microsoft and Meta beat estimates and initially rallied, while Apple’s reception was cooler and Amazon’s results were “very poorly received,” with AMZN sliding about 7–8% as investors questioned AWS’s momentum. Coinbase’s report landed at the other extreme for crypto beta: revenue missed expectations and the stock fell, a backdrop Krüger called “dreadful” for sentiment. “Even though the aforementioned concerns emboldened bears, this week’s move has been mainly a macro story, given how crypto traded mostly in line with equity indices,” he wrote. He also flagged an unusual political and geopolitical coda to this weekend’s rout. After the weak jobs report—plus an unusually stark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs—markets lurched, and the White House’s subsequent decision to reposition two US nuclear submarines amid heated exchanges with Moscow added to stress, he said. Kremlin officials later tried to downplay escalation risk, calling the submarine moves “routine.” Krüger called the nuclear rhetoric and presidential barbs at the Fed “noise” for markets, but said the combination likely helped flush leveraged positions into the close. On crypto-specific drivers, Krüger listed a cluster of narratives that, in his view, amplified bearish conviction without changing the macro center of gravity: disappointing Coinbase results; debate around whether MicroStrategy could curtail its at-the-market equity issuance, limiting incremental BTC buys; questions about the sustainability of “DATs” (digital-asset treasury companies) tied to ETH; and, on the other side of the ledger, the SEC’s new “Project Crypto,” a policy push to modernize securities rules and move more market infrastructure on-chain—“an extremely bullish development that should drive inflows later in the year,” as he put it. The SEC’s chair outlined “American Leadership in the Digital Finance Revolution” last week, framing tokenization and on-chain market plumbing as a regulatory priority. Related Reading: Trump-Appointed Group Calls For Easier Crypto Regulations From Federal Authorities Krüger’s base case is timing-driven: either crypto “bottomed after today’s close, given the sheer violence of that final dump, or will be bottoming together with equities on Monday.” In his plan, the trigger to add risk was early Monday—assuming the overnight remained disorderly—on the view that the analog to August 2024 would rhyme at the turn of the week. “A violent shakeout,” he wrote, not a regime change. He remains constructive into the fourth quarter, citing three pillars: a still-solid US economy, the start of Fed rate cuts, and a steadily improving regulatory climate that should broaden institutional and retail participation. Policy churn could amplify that path. Krüger pointed to Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation—effective this month—as a potentially market-relevant shift because it hands the White House an earlier-than-expected Board vacancy, and to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s call for a new “Treasury–Fed accord” as a signpost for constraints on central-bank independence. On Monday he added, “This will prove to be very important later on,” citing Warsh’s argument about “limits on the Fed’s independence to help the govt with its finances.” Whether those institutional dynamics translate into earlier or deeper rate cuts remains open, but markets have already moved to price odds to 85% for a September cut following the payrolls miss. Krüger’s longer arc is unabashedly bullish but explicitly conditional on the macro. “I remain bullish on crypto into Q4,” he wrote, while warning that ETH-linked treasury plays could “lose momentum dramatically” later in the year if goods inflation re-accelerates as corporates pass tariffs through. He set a one-year Bitcoin target for mid-2026 at $200,000–$250,000—“extreme, but possible”—on the premise that a more dovish Fed in 2026 would coincide with ongoing adoption. For now, he is treating last week’s cascade as an echo of 2024’s Monday bottom. As he put it: “Now let’s see how this ages.” At press time, BTC recovered to $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill Tuesday left risk-asset traders with a single, binary question: does the most interest-sensitive summer in years end with a crypto breakout or a macro-driven crash? In a prepared statement, Powell stressed that “inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated,” adding that the Federal Open Market Committee is “well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Crypto’s Fate May Be Sealed In July For crypto markets already oscillating on every nuance of policy guidance, the message was clear: the next four weeks—anchored by the 12 July CPI release and the 19 July payrolls report—will decide whether July’s FOMC delivers relief or a reality check. POWELL: WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MEANINGFUL TARIFF INFLATION EFFECTS JUNE, JULY AUGUST POWELL: IF WE DON’T SEE THAT, THAT WOULD LEAD TO CUTTING EARLIER — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 24, 2025 Powell’s caution sits atop a rare public split inside the Board itself. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both Trump appointees, have openly argued that tariff-related price spikes are likely to be “one-time shifts” and therefore should not stand in the way of an early cut—potentially as soon as the 30 July meeting. Seven of their colleagues disagree, laying out projections that keep policy unchanged through December. Powell, for his part, told lawmakers: “I don’t think we need to be in any rush, because the economy is still strong.” Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run Over? Here’s What A Top Trader Just Said Markets reacted by flattening the front end of the curve. Two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.806 percent, while the benchmark 10-year dipped to 4.285 percent—both lows not seen since early May—after the testimony and a surprise cease-fire in the Middle East turbo-charged a global “risk-on” bid. Yet expectations for July remain finely balanced: CME FedWatch shows that traders have whittled the probability of a first 25-basis-point cut to roughly 19%. Crypto traded the cross-currents rather than the headline. Bitcoin, which had cratered to $99,000 on Monday, reclaimed $106,000 by Wednesday morning, mirroring the rebound in equities and high-beta currencies as the dollar slumped on falling yields. Ethereum, meanwhile, held above $2,400—even as Powell’s tone was widely described as hawkish. The broader crypto complex moved in sympathy, with BNB punching through $644 and Solana stabilising near $146. Related Reading: Crypto Gets A Green Light From Spanish Banking Giant Veteran traders on X distilled the stakes. Pseudonymous analyst Byzantine General wrote, “We got a lot of clarity now. All eyes on the July CPI print.” Nic from CoinBureau added that July “is in play—maybe—but nothing’s locked in,” as Powell’s testimony brought no big surprises. Meanwhile, Jim Bianco commented: “Trump appointees Waller and Bowman are suggesting a July cut. Powell is reiterating ‘no.’ Will the July FOMC meeting see at least two dissenters?” For now, Powell’s “watch and wait” stance has bought the FOMC four more weeks of optionality. If July inflation confirms the down-trend, the policy door swings open, and the next rally for crypto could morph into a full-blown melt-up. If it doesn’t, the crash could come just as fast. As Byzantine General put it, the market “got clarity.” What it did not get is comfort. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,892. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
With Bitcoin precariously recovering above the $100,000 mark and altcoins bleeding momentum, traders are asking the obvious: Is the crypto bull run over? According to systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade), the answer is not so clear-cut. In a detailed market breakdown posted June 22, Bakay offered a technically grounded, cautiously defensive assessment—one that acknowledges geopolitical risks but stays rooted in positioning and price structure. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? “Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend,” Bakay wrote, noting that “no key swing low was broken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has been respected during the pullback in April.” Despite this, he admits that “the failure to make new all-time highs similar to the top in 2021” is a concern—especially given the accumulation by players like BlackRock, which now holds around 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. It’s that divergence—between strong institutional interest and a market struggling to break higher—that has made Bakay more cautious in recent weeks. “This is why I have been very defensive and kept most of my trades short-term,” he said. Related Reading: Crypto Gets A Green Light From Spanish Banking Giant His trading view focuses on two potential technical scenarios: either a reclaim of the $100,000 support area—“likely if the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate”—or a dip into the $97,000–$95,000 range, where strong technical support resides in the form of the 200-day moving average, local price structure, and the 90-day rolling VWAP. Still, Bakay made it clear he’s not shorting the market. “I am not currently considering any short trades due to my current positioning,” he emphasized, adding that open interest is dropping and that we are starting to see the “first signs of clear spot bid interest since the April lows.” The options market, meanwhile, is flashing early caution: the 25-delta risk reversal skew sits around -5, not yet at panic levels, but trending more negative. Crypto Bull Run In Jeopardy On Ethereum, Bakay was notably blunt. “ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he said. He attributes the failed breakout in part to how quickly the “DeFi Summer 2025” narrative went viral. “People are getting too horny, and market made sure to punish them,” he noted, referencing his own tweet from a few days earlier. Related Reading: Crypto’s Unlikely Ally: Top Analyst Reveals War As A Surprising Bullish Force The technical picture on ETH doesn’t inspire confidence either. “During significant market moves, like we had at the beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is price retracing throughout that area,” he explained, saying the next meaningful support lies near $1,800. On the daily chart, Ethereum is sitting right at a confluence of support—both the 90-day rolling VWAP and what he calls a “pivotal level.” Still, much like Bitcoin, Bakay sees Ethereum’s short-term fate as largely dependent on developments in the Middle East. On positioning, ETH also shows signs of an oversold environment, though Bakay believes high volatility in ETH options has caused traders to use spreads instead of outright directional bets. “Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal in both perpetual and spot,” he said. Altcoins received no reprieve. “Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while,” Bakay wrote, pointing out that “every time it starts to look better, it will almost immediately get worse.” He notes that the expected rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins hasn’t materialized, and the real rotation now seems to be into crypto-related equities, which better reflect the ETF-driven macro trade. Even strong names like Solana are fading. “SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” he warned. The key level to watch is $100. “There is not much of a technical support sub-$100,” and if “shit hits the fan,” Bakay would look to bid around that round number. Bakay also briefly touched on two newer altcoins—Hype and Fartcoin—saying one offers a solid product and the other draws interest through volatility and liquidity. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub-$30.” His closing thoughts were pragmatic: “We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by a single news release.” While he believes the market may be “getting too short at the moment,” he remains highly conscious of the possibility that a multi-month correction is already in play. “I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would much rather wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.” In essence, Bakay doesn’t call the top. But his post makes one thing clear: this is not a market for bravado. It’s a time for restraint, tight risk management, and respect for volatility—especially when the bullish case no longer has momentum on its side. At press time, BTC traded at $101,847. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In a swift and dramatic reversal, crypto markets have shed hundreds of billions of dollars in the space of just one day, raising questions about the sustainability of recent gains spurred by the surprise announcement of a new US Crypto Reserve. At the peak of the initial rally—shortly after former President Donald Trump’s Sunday statement unveiling the Reserve—total crypto market capitalization soared from approximately $2.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion. But, as of the latest readings, those gains have not just evaporated; the market now stands at around $2.6 trillion, even lower than it was before the announcement. Why Is Crypto Down Today? “The real driver here is the GLOBAL move towards the risk-off trade,” writes The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) via X. According to this analysis, heightened trade war tensions and broad economic policy uncertainty have caused “ALL risky assets” to retrace sharply, including stocks, oil, and crypto. By contrast, traditional safe havens such as gold have continued to post gains, reinforcing the perception that cryptocurrencies are far from being a refuge in turbulent times. Related Reading: Flash Crashes On The Rise: Understanding The Recent $300 Billion Crypto Drop This sudden downturn has been accompanied by staggering figures. “Over the last 24 hours, crypto has erased -$500 BILLION of market cap in a massive reversal,” The Kobeissi Letter notes. Bitcoin, which initially appeared poised for a major rally, has tumbled roughly 3% below its pre-announcement levels, losing nearly $250 billion in market value in just 12 hours. Ethereum (ETH) has seen an even sharper retreat. Prior to the US Crypto Reserve news on Sunday, ETH touched a local low of $2,173 on March 2. Soon after the announcement, it climbed to $2,550 before plunging to $2,002—about 8% lower than its pre-announcement bottom. “This came with a huge swing in sentiment in what appears to have been a colossal retail trap,” The Kobeissi Letter adds, noting that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index surged from around 20 (extreme fear) to nearly 55 (close to greed) before cratering back to the low 20s. Adding to these signals, the final week of February registered a record $2.6 billion in crypto fund outflows—an alarming statistic that surpassed the previous high by $500 million. Observers suggest that, despite the “most bullish announcements ever,” capital is rotating out of cryptocurrencies primarily because of intensifying macroeconomic headwinds. Related Reading: Crypto Market Sees Record Flash Crashes, What’s Going On? Meanwhile, safe haven assets continue to outperform. “Our premium members were buying gold for months,” The Kobeissi Letter indicated, referring to a strategy that saw gold purchases during January’s dip. Since the start of the year, gold has climbed around 10%, with analysts forecasting further upside. “We bought the dip into January and called for $2,850+. On Friday, we called for another higher low at $2850 and gold is nearing $2900+ again now,” the market commentary stated. Where crypto was once considered an emerging hedge against economic uncertainty, current market behavior suggests it is now lumped in with other “risky assets,” driven at least as much by global sentiment shifts and macroeconomic pressures as by sector-specific developments. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $83,594. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
US inflation data has injected renewed optimism into the Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency markets. In January, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure—fell to 2.5%, precisely in line with expectations. Core PCE inflation was reported at 2.6%, also matching forecasts, marking the first decline in PCE inflation since September 2024. Bitcoin And Altcoins See Relief On Inflation Data The latest data confirms steady performance both year-over-year and month-over-month. Headline PCE remained at 2.5% YoY, while core PCE—revised from a previous 2.8% (and even 2.9% in earlier revisions) to 2.6%—represents a 30 basis point improvement. This core headline reading is the lowest YoY since August 2024, and it is notable as the first slowdown in headline PCE YoY in four months. These figures suggest that easing inflationary pressures might be gradually reshaping market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes, Fear Spikes—But This Analyst Sees $153,000 Ahead Crypto analyst BACH (@CyclesWithBach) was quick to respond on X, emphasizing the bullish nature of the data. He noted that “this core headline number is the lowest reading YoY since August 2024” and pointed to the 30bp revision as a significant improvement. Although he warned of too much optimism, he stated: “This is a BIG difference and is in fact bullish for markets! We may still see some choppy bottoming formation, but this bull ain’t over! – Credit spreads despite all this remain narrow, which is a sign that credit markets see no risk!” Following the data release, Bitcoin recovered back above $84,000, up 3.5% since the report and about 7.5% from today’s low of $78,258. After a week in which Bitcoin suffered an 18% decline, losing $96,000, the rebound marks a clear recovery. Altcoins were similarly buoyed; Ethereum climbed 5.8%, XRP gained 9.2%, and Solana surged 16%. Notably, SOL’s rally coincides with news that the CME Group will launch Solana (SOL) futures on March 17, pending CFTC regulatory review. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 60-Day CDD Spikes: A Warning Sign or Buying Opportunity? Crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) also weighed in on the implications of the PCE release, remarking that “Fed CME interest rate Futures at the current moment has increased to 53.7% probability of a rate cut in June after the PCE Report. Up from below 50%. That’s solid news. #BTC #Altcoins #Crypto” Broader Macro Perspective Beyond the PCE data, broader macroeconomic signals could further support market recovery. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), shared his perspective on X. He attributes current market volatility, especially in crypto, to the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 of last year, which drained liquidity and slowed economic surprises. Bittel suggests that these conditions are now reversing: “Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months – dollar down, bond yields down, oil down – and that’s setting the stage for a recovery in the data soon.” He further notes that Bitcoin’s price now fully reflects the effects of recent tightening, and with an RSI at 23—the most oversold level since August 2023—he advised, “be greedy when others are fearful.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,804. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Digital asset prices may still see substantial gains before the market corrects, the analyst said.
The broader crypto market experienced a pronounced downturn following yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held on December 18. After the US Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut as anticipated, it also signaled fewer cuts in 2025 than previously expected. In response, the Bitcoin price fell by more than 5%, dropping below the $100,000 mark before showing slight signs of recovery. Altcoins saw across-the-board double-digit percentage declines. The Federal Reserve’s decision—while meeting expectations for a 25-basis-point reduction—came with a notable shift in the projected rate trajectory for next year. Rather than the previously communicated four cuts, the central bank now anticipates only two, signaling a more cautious stance. This recalibration of future monetary policy sent ripples through the entire risk asset spectrum, prompting the S&P 500 to decline 3% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index to drop 4.4%. Is The Crypto Bull Run Over? Within the crypto sector, the immediate aftermath was pronounced. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, addressed the market conditions this morning via X, writing: “The big catalyst today was the Fed announcement […] The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but lowered expectations for next year from 4 cuts to 2 cuts. Higher rates are bad for risk assets, and the Fed’s announcement caused a sharp pullback in all risk assets.” Related Reading: Bitwise Exec Reveals His Personal Top 3 Crypto Predictions For 2025 According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s price action reflected heightened sensitivity to shifting monetary conditions. He noted that Bitcoin price drop was exaggerated by leveraged positions being liquidated. “$600 million of leveraged long positions were blown out in today’s market, exacerbating the pullback.” Despite the steep correction, Hougan argued that the broader outlook remains constructive: “Crypto now has internal momentum, and nothing about today’s announcement interrupts the mega-trends: The pro-crypto reversal in Washington policy, rising institutional adoption and ETF flows, Bitcoin purchases by governments and corporations, and major tech breakthroughs in the programmable blockchain space.” He pointed to technical indicators as a supporting factor for his thesis: “My favorite momentum gauge is still positive: Bitcoin’s 10-day exponential moving average ($102k) is still above its 20-day exponential moving average ($99k).” Related Reading: Crypto Watchlist: Top 5 Coins To Watch This Week Hougan concluded his thread by maintaining that the shift in Fed expectations would not derail the longer-term bull run, stating: “Crypto’s in a multi-year bull market. 50bps of projected rate cuts won’t change that.” Other market observers offered similar interpretations of the Fed’s communication strategy. Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research, commented via X: “By upping inflation forecast, lowering UE rate, and keeping cuts in place, the Fed has actually opened the path to more than 2 cuts in 2025 as data ‘surprises’ to the dovish side.” Renowned macro analysts echoed this sentiment. Crypto analyst and podcaster Fejau (@fejau_inc) described the central bank’s approach as a strategy designed to guide market expectations: “Fed forced itself into cutting this week so is using a hawkish 2025 FFR dot plot forecast to talk down long bond yields despite cutting today […] Welcome to macro psyop warfare. Smoke and mirrors baby.” He characterized the dot plots as a tool for psychological influence rather than a strict roadmap: “It’s important to view the dot plots not as a future forecast of events, but as a psychological tool […] The Fed has bought themselves time to allow further data to come out before they actually make a move […] Can almost guarantee you 2025 will not occur as is forecasted in their dots.” Andreas Steno Larsen, CIO of Steno Global Macro Fund and CEO at Steno Research, offered a similar assessment: “By hawking up all forecasts a lot, the Fed lowers the bar materially for cuts next year. It is a wise move, if you want to cut further, but do not want to precommit.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $101,766. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Raoul Pal, the founder of Real Vision and a recognized figure in the crypto community, has issued a stark warning about the rapidly approaching transformations in the global economy, driven by unprecedented technological advancements. In his latest video, Pal, who has long advocated for an understanding of what he calls the “exponential age,” claims that the coming years will bring about the largest changes humanity has ever experienced, due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. According to Pal, we are nearing what he terms the “economic singularity,” a point beyond which current economic, market, and business frameworks will no longer be applicable. “By about 2030, things are going to become not understandable by using the existing frameworks of economics, financial analysis, markets, and that kind of stuff,” Pal explains. Pal He asserts that AI and robotics are advancing at a pace that will soon outstrip human capacity to adapt under current economic systems. Falling birth rates and aging populations across developed nations are leading to a decline in the traditional economic drivers of GDP growth. Moreover, Pal notes that productivity has not kept up with technological capability, and most new debt is simply servicing old debts, not creating new economic value. Related Reading: Grayscale’s Bullish Forecast: The Top 20 Crypto To Watch In Q4 The most significant aspect of Pal’s warning concerns the role of AI in the economy. He believes that AI will reach and surpass human levels of intelligence across all areas of knowledge, fundamentally altering the landscape of labor and productivity. “AI is basically infinite human knowledge now […] As these models scale, the breakthroughs come through, and the average IQ of AI goes from 100 to 400, and then on to a million times the intelligence of a human,” Pal states. This immense growth in AI capabilities is expected to lead to what Pal describes as infinite productivity and a near-zero marginal cost of electricity, primarily due to advances in renewable energy technologies. He argues that these factors will lead to massive deflationary pressures as goods and services become increasingly inexpensive to produce. The Key Role Of Crypto Pal is particularly bullish on the transformative power of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies in this context. He describes a future economic model where “AI agents” perform tasks and transact autonomously using cryptocurrencies, given their ability to operate independently of traditional banking systems. Related Reading: VP Kamala Harris’s First Speech On Crypto Sparks 7% Rise In This Memecoin “Obviously, we’ll probably need crypto payments to pay you. […] I think we’ll use cryptocurrency to do that because last thing I checked, AI can’t get a bank account – it’s never going to transfer money over SWIFT, never going to happen,” Pal remarks. Pal urges viewers to recognize the urgency of investing in cryptocurrencies. He advises that the window for capitalizing on these technologies is closing fast, with only about six years left to make substantial gains before traditional economic and market structures transform irreversibly. “We’re going to have to go through this together and we have to be smart and try and figure it out as we go but I do know that this idea of 6 years to make as much money as possible is really important and I do think that the real answer to this, as far as I can see, is cryptocurrency because it is the best performing asset in the world and of all time. So I think that’s the one thing we can lean in, it has a huge future,” Pal says. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $63,588. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
In a post on X, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher laid out his strategic predictions for high-performing cryptocurrencies in the upcoming week to his 501,700 followers. His analysis delved deep into Bitcoin’s trading patterns, the surging AI-driven altcoin sector, and specific tokens that are displaying considerable potential due to recent developments and broader market dynamics. Bitcoin And AI Crypto Tokens Are Set To Dominate This Week At the forefront of Deutscher’s analysis, Bitcoin has recently returned to its previous trading range between $60,000 and $69,400 after experiencing a sharp drop. This movement was characterized as a significant deviation, suggesting manipulation or a shakeout of weak hands before a potential rally. “Bitcoin is at the top of my watchlist for this week. Had a big fakeout/deviation to the downside, and now back within the range,” Deutscher stated. He pointed out that the key factor to watch is whether the current range’s lower boundary will hold, which could serve as a strong foundation for an upward trajectory. Moreover, the AI sector has been particularly resilient and robust recently, bouncing back significantly amidst broader market recoveries. Deutscher highlighted the sector’s potential for outperformance, driven by several upcoming major events. These include Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), NVIDIA’s earnings announcement, and the anticipated release of ChatGPT 5. “AI is one of those unique narratives that retains constant mindshare due to its endless real-life news flow/hype,” Deutscher explained. Related Reading: Here’s Why This Crypto Analyst Believes Bitcoin Is At A ‘Prime Buy Zone’ One specific AI token which Deutscher watches closely due to its alleged partnership with Apple is Render (RNDR), making it a prime candidate for speculation around the upcoming Apple event. Historically, RNDR has also led the AI token sector during market rotations. Furthermore, Deutsches focuses on Near Protocol (NEAR), Fetch.ai (FET), AIOZ Network (AIOZ). He grouped these tokens together due to their correlation but noted their recent technical performance, where they bounced cleanly off daily support levels and established higher lows. More Altcoins To Watch TON: Recently the center of attention, TON experienced a drop after the Token2049 event in what Deutscher described as a “sell-the-news” scenario. However, recent investments by firms like Pantera signal continued interest and potential undercurrents of growth. Ethena (ENA): With the market sentiment turning bullish again, Deutscher anticipates a return to positive funding rates, which typically benefit tokens like Ethena. Recent activity from the Ethena team, including increased reward boosts and optimistic social media posts from its founders, further bolster the bullish case. “Also hearing rumors of a T1 exchange listing,” Deutscher added, suggesting an impending increase in liquidity and exposure. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Reveals 6 Must-Buy Altcoins With The Most Potential Jito (JTO): Jito is reportedly developing what Deutscher referred to as the “Eigen Layer of Solana,” aiming to replicate the success and hype surrounding the Eigen project’s layer solutions. Despite the challenges of a recent airdrop, Deutscher sees potential if the team executes well, particularly as the restaking narrative has not yet fully penetrated the market. PopCat (POPCAT): Despite facing some fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) related to copyright issues over the weekend, POPCAT continues to exhibit strong price action, pushing toward new highs. “POPCAT seems the best contender, for now, not a single cat meme coin has yet to hit a $1B market cap,” noted Deutscher, highlighting its standout performance. Ethereum Finance (ETHFI): In the realm of liquidity reward tokens (LRT), ETHFI remains a notable mention despite a broader sector sell-off post-Eigen. Deutscher believes the selling may have been overreactive, and with total value locked (TVL) still on the rise, a reversion to mean on prices could be imminent. SEI Network (SEI): As anticipation builds for the launch of the new layer one blockchain, Monad, later this year, SEI is seen as a strategic play. Categorized within the parallelized Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) narrative, SEI experienced a substantial sell-off but is poised for recovery as the market focus shifts towards upcoming launches. Friend (FRIEND): After recommending FRIEND at $1.30, Deutscher continues to see upside potential, particularly as it approaches more significant centralized exchange listings. He advises keeping an eye out for major pullbacks as opportunities to buy. Featured image from Matt Paul Catalano / Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com