A key US crypto policy bill, the CLARITY Act, is now moving through its final stages in the Senate, with potential action tied to the Senate Banking Committee’s last markup expected in May. But Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko says the legislation—despite broad praise from much of the crypto industry—could actually prolong the current downturn in digital assets. Bear Market Could Extend Beyond October In a YouTube interview with Paul Barron published Tuesday, Yusko described the CLARITY Act as “a horrible bill,” warning that if it passes, it would not trigger the bullish shift many investors are hoping for. Instead, he argued that bearish conditions could continue well beyond September and October. Yusko also questioned the motivations behind the bill, saying it appears to have been written by “big incumbents,” which he further clarified as large banks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom At $63,000? Grayscale Research Flags Feb. 5 As This Cycle’s Low During the interview, the executive pointed to remarks attributed to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, claiming the bank would “lose trillions of dollars of deposits” if customers were able to earn stablecoin yields. Yusko said this is exactly the kind of incentive that would push large financial institutions to resist competition, arguing that if people can earn yield in alternative places, they will move their capital. “There’s no mystery about it,” Yusko suggested, implying that big banks are signaling their priorities more openly than many expect. He also said he was confused by what he called a political reversal he noticed around Senator Cynthia Lummis. Yusko referenced her earlier support for President Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, then contrasted it with her backing of the CLARITY Act. In his view, the shift doesn’t make sense in light of what many see as the bill’s likely direction. Lummis Rejects Further CLARITY Act Delays On Tuesday, Senator Thom Tillis told reporters that he doesn’t expect a CLARITY Act markup in April and said the committee should instead focus on May. If that is the case, the week of May 11 would become the first possible window, especially since the Senate is scheduled to be in recess before then. Crypto In America reported that for a next-week markup to occur, the committee would need to notify members by this Friday. That notification reportedly has not happened, which the report ties to signals from the stablecoin-yield negotiation process. Related Reading: XRP Indicator Turns Bullish Again After 3 Months: What’s The Next Price Target? Lummis, however, has publicly pushed back on the idea of further delay in the CLARITY Act passage. In a statement to Crypto In America, she said, “Further delay is unacceptable.” She added that she is “really proud of the bipartisan progress we’ve made” and that she won’t allow colleagues to sacrifice substantive and good progress for what she described as the pursuit of a “perfect bill” that will never come. The pro-crypto Senator also warned that the “offshore risk is real” and that the window for action is closing. “It’s time to finally get this done,” she concluded. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
As Dogecoin (DOGE) retests a key multi-year support, some analysts predict a bearish outlook for the largest memecoin by market capitalization, warning that its bottom may not be in yet. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Projects Circle To Hit $75B Valuation By 2030 Despite Selloff, Clarity Act Concerns Dogecoin Targets Lower Levels On Thursday, Dogecoin erased most of its early-week bounce and retested the $0.090 area once again. Market observer Rekt Capital highlighted DOGE’s recent performance, warning that its price correction may not be over yet. As he explained, the leading memecoin lost its multi-year macro uptrend back in November, when it closed the month below its ascending support that had held since early 2023. Therefore, Dogecoin officially confirmed its macro downtrend, which started developing after its cycle peak of $0.484 during the late 2024 bull run. The analyst noted that historically, the cryptocurrency has not retested the macro downtrend line until the price is ready to break it and post-breakout retest it. Based on this, he warned that the memecoin is “unlikely to test this Macro Downtrend anytime soon.” At the moment, DOGE is sitting at its range low, which is also a key reaction zone that previously acted as resistance before turning into support in 2024. According to Rekt Capital, previous bear market performance suggests that Dogecoin will likely lose the current area as support over time, but noted that the price could see a rebound as part of a range-bound cluster in the meantime. If history is any indicator, then price would likely fall well short of the Macro Downtrend and instead reject from the Range High resistance (red region). Perhaps even upside wicking beyond it, but still falling substantially short of the downtrend itself. The analyst concluded that a short-term relief rally remains possible as long as the current level holds, but cautioned that it may be lost in the coming months before bottoming at significantly lower levels. The Case For DOGE’s Price Despite the bearish forecast, other market watchers have shared a more optimistic outlook for the memecoin. Analyst Trader Tardigrade recently signaled that Dogecoin may have reached its bottom already and could be preparing for its next bull run. Per the chart, the cryptocurrency is retesting a historical support for the third time. This trendline has held for roughly a decade, and its retests have previously preceded major price rallies. The first touch in 2017 led to an explosive rally toward its 2018 $0.017 all-time high (ATH), while the second retest in 2021 was followed by a massive surge toward its current ATH of $0.731. Now, Dogecoin is testing this area again and could begin recovering in the short- to mid-term before a massive price expansion to new highs in the mid- to long-term, if it follows its past performances. Similarly, the analyst has also argued that DOGE’s macro structure remains intact, regardless of short-term price action. Last week, he affirmed that the memecoin’s performance during each of its ATH rallies “tells the same story—because Doge makes its own rules.” Related Reading: Cardano Price At Multi-Year Support That Previously Led To 200% Rally – ADA Recovery Ahead? He highlighted that the cryptocurrency currently resembles its past ATH performances, nearing the end of the falling wedge pattern that has preceded significant price expansion to new highs during previous rallies. As a result, he considers Dogecoin to be at a “prime accumulation window” before it potentially goes to the moon. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As XRP anticipates a potential rally toward a key short-term resistance level, an analyst has set a bold target for the cryptocurrency’s long-term performance, suggesting that the altcoin could soar by over 1,300% during the next bull run. Related Reading: Ethereum Eyes $2,100 Retest As BlackRock Debuts Staked ETH ETF XRP Targets $48 In Next Bull Run On Friday, XRP joined the broader market rebound, experiencing a 3.5% surge and reaching a one-week high of $1.45. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has been oscillating between $1.20 and $1.50, hovering above the upper area of this range. Amid this performance, analyst Ali Martinez shared a bold prediction for XRP’s price in the next bull run, suggesting a massive rally could unfold in the coming years based on a multi-year pattern. According to the chart, the altcoin has been forming an ascending triangle pattern on the monthly chart since 2018, when it rallied around 1,500% over two months to its old all-time high (ATH). XRP has traded between the $3.30 horizontal resistance and the ascending trendline over the past eight years, marking the bottom and peak of each rally during the last two cycles. The analyst suggested the altcoin could continue to move within this pattern until the next bull run and potentially rally 1,350% to the $48 target once it breaks through the multi-year resistance. Similarly, market observer Chard Nerd shared XRP’s macro chart but highlighted a potential retest of a resistance-turned-support instead. He noted that the cryptocurrency broke out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle pattern when the price soared past its eight-year resistance during the Q4 2024 market rally. Per the post, XRP could test the pattern’s neckline, currently around the $0.70-$0.80 area, as support in the coming months before beginning to recover from the bear market lows. Is A March-April Rally Brewing? In a Friday video analysis, Chart Nerd also shared a short-term outlook for XRP, highlighting its attempt to break out of a one-month symmetrical triangle on the daily timeframe after today’s pump. As he explained, the altcoin’s price has been compressing between a major level of resistance and a major level of ascending support over the past five weeks, which could target a 25% rally in the next few weeks as it approaches the tighter range of its apex. The apex does have a date (…) we’re looking towards the end of March, 25th of March, where XRP could, if it rejects from this $1.42-$1.43 level, (…) get really tight and compressed into a corner to look for a decision. The analyst suggested that the pattern’s upper boundary has been a major level of resistance throughout February, which could squeeze XRP’s price “into this apex towards the end of March” before potentially choosing its next direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Sandwiched’ Between Two Key Zones As Price Tops $71,000 – Major Move Ahead? If XRP breaks out of this apex to the upside and reclaims the $1.50 horizontal resistance, it will validate a move toward the $1.80-$2.00 area, which he previously called “a critical inflection point,” by the end of March or start of April. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the end of the month approaches, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to end February above the crucial $2,000 barrier. Some analysts have suggested that the upcoming monthly close could determine the fate of the King of Altcoin’s price trajectory. Related Reading: XRP Rally Incoming? Analyst Forecasts March-April Recovery If This Level Breaks Ethereum Trajectory Could Be Defined This Weekend On Thursday, Ethereum briefly fell from its recent highs and retested the $1,980 level before bouncing. Notably, the cryptocurrency surged 11% on Wednesday morning, reaching a ten-day high of $2,148, then stabilized around the crucial $2,000 support. Amid this rebound, market observer Trader Tardigrade highlighted that ETH has momentarily reclaimed a critical monthly level, which had been lost in the shorter timeframes. The King of Altcoins is trading back above its multi-year trendline, suggesting that a potential price recovery rally could be coming if the level holds. Per the post, Ethereum “has a proven pattern: every time price holds above this ascending support trendline, it launches into a parabolic rally.” As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency displayed a similar trendline between 2018 and 2020, when the altcoin bounced from this support and embarked on a massive one-year rally toward its previous all-time high (ATH). Now, ETH shows a similar performance in the monthly timeframe, currently retesting the trendline that began forming in 2022. “If it holds here, history says we’re gearing up for another explosive climb,” the trader affirmed. Similarly, analyst Rekt Capital noted that this multi-year trendline has been “a structural level that has defined the broader macro trajectory for several years.” He stated that if Ethereum ends the month above this trendline, located around the $1,960-$1,970 area, “then price would have scope to rebound into the green region overhead,” between the $2,250-$2,500 levels. However, he warned that this key horizontal region has historically “not been kind to Ethereum across cycles.” Deeper Correction In The Books? Explaining ETH’s previous behavior around this level, Rekt Capital detailed that in 2022, once the price broke below this horizontal region in the monthly timeframe, it continued lower. Meanwhile, Ethereum closed below this level again in early 2025, retested it, turned it into resistance, and resumed its correction toward the April 2025 lows around $1,385. “So structurally, the green region remains a likely candidate for resistance unless Ethereum Monthly Closes above it and successfully turns it into support,” the analyst affirmed, cautioning that it seems less likely given the current bear market conditions. Moreover, he warned that if ETH Monthly Closes below the multi-year support trendline, the $1,570-$1,670 horizontal zone, which was a prior demand cluster, could be revisited. Related Reading: The ‘Next-Generation Trading Chain’: BNB Chain Eyes 2026 Optimization Following Strong Ecosystem Momentum “We have already seen downside wicking toward that orange region, but not a clean, picture-perfect retest. Losing the trendline would likely force price into that orange region more decisively and potentially even result in its loss as support,” he added. As Rekt Capital stressed, if a macro uptrend is lost, there is limited buy-side momentum to support the price against further downside over time. As of this writing, ETH is trading at $2,026, a 4.7% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
During the Wednesday market recovery, XRP surged 7.9% to hit a one-week high of $1.47. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between $1.35-$1.50 over the past three weeks but has failed to break above the local range’s upper boundary. As the price nears this resistance once again, an analyst has suggested that a short-term rally toward another critical level could be brewing, potentially setting the stage for the altcoin to decide its next market direction by the end of Q2. Related Reading: The ‘Next-Generation Trading Chain’: BNB Chain Eyes 2026 Optimization Following Strong Ecosystem Momentum XRP To See March Breakout On Wednesday, analyst ChartNerd called for a short-term 20%-30% XRP rally in the next month or two, affirming that “relief is overdue” after six months of continuous downside pressure. In a video analysis, the market observer affirmed that the cryptocurrency is attempting to build a base within its local range to retest a crucial resistance level after losing the $1.80-$2.00 area as support in January. As he explained, XRP is attempting to form an ascending triangle or double bottom pattern in the daily timeframe, with the formation’s neckline sitting around the $1.50 mark. Based on this, if the altcoin “coils up inside this triangle and eventually gets a breakout heading into March, this is where the potential lies of rallying back up to $1.80” to retest this previous area of support as resistance. Meanwhile, if the cryptocurrency is forming a double bottom pattern, the analyst noted that “even a retrace to the $1.20 level would still mark a higher low before a short-term bullish reversal.” In both cases, breaking out of the $1.50 resistance would validate a move toward the $1.80-$2.00 area, which he considers “a critical inflection point” as XRP held it as support for 400 days. It would be a critical inflection point. I mean, potentially, we could respect some sort of ascending channel here as well, leading into March, which is what may guide us up to that $1.80 resistance. (…) If XRP does sort of respect these trend lines, it’s resistance. We’re back at support. Is A Critical Retest Ahead? Despite the bullish outlook, ChartNerd warned that XRP still risks a correction of up to 50%. Per the analyst, the $1.80 retest will determine whether this area has turned into resistance and the price will continue to go lower, or if it will be reclaimed and push to higher levels. “If the rally into $1.80/$2 unfolds in March/April, that will be the telltale sign of whether $0.70 is on the cards or not. Breaking cleanly above $2 signals strength and invalidation of that potential. Rejecting it as resistance would then cause a potential $0.70 drop,” he added on X. A reclaim of this key area as support could open the doors for a retest of the golden $2.40-$2.70 range, not visited since the Q4 2025 crash. It could also signal that the corrective period may be over. Related Reading: Bitcoin Positioned For More Pain Following Weekly Close Below This Critical Level However, he recently cautioned that losing the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in the weekly timeframe and confirming it as resistance has historically signaled a major drop toward the $0.70 area. In previous cycles, XRP entered a deep corrective move when it failed to hold this level, crashing around 50% to its bear market bottom. Therefore, he emphasized that the cryptocurrency needs a convincing reclaim of its crucial area to invalidate this potential outcome. As of this writing, XRP is trading at $1.46, a 2.7% increase on the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Altcoin breadth on Binance has deteriorated sharply, with a large majority of tokens now trading below a widely watched long-term trend level, an exhaustion signal that CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost frames as a liquidity problem as much as a price problem. In a post on X, Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) shared a CryptoQuant chart tracking the share of Binance-listed altcoins trading below their 50-week moving average alongside Bitcoin’s price. His headline claim: “LIQUIDITY CRUNCH PUSHES 83% OF ALTCOINS INTO BEAR TREND,” arguing that most investors exposed to non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin assets are “now in significant difficulty,” particularly those still holding positions. Altcoin Breadth Breaks Down On Binance Darkfost’s chart, titled “Altcoins performance (Binance)”, shows the percentage of altcoins below the 50-week moving average rising back into historically stressed territory. In his latest read, 83% of Binance altcoins are below that threshold, a sign that weakness is not isolated to a handful of names but spread across the tape. He also pointed to an even more extreme episode earlier this month. “Since the end of the bear market in 2023, a new record was set on February 7, with more than 92% of altcoins on Binance trading below this key technical support,” he wrote, describing it as a post-2023-cycle high in downside participation. Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture That stands in stark contrast to the conditions seen during earlier upside phases. Darkfost noted that in March 2024 only 6% of Binance altcoins traded below the 50-week line, and in December 2024 the figure was 7%. Outside of those multi-month windows, he added, at least half of altcoins remained under the threshold, behavior he characterized as meaningfully different from the prior cycle’s breadth dynamics. Darkfost framed the altcoin drawdown as inseparable from Bitcoin’s trend and the macro backdrop, suggesting that the market’s risk budget has tightened while altcoin supply has expanded. Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture “The market continues to be driven by BTC’s movements, which has been in a downtrend since October 2025 following an ATH at $126,000. At present, BTC’s momentum remains highly uncertain, with price still hovering at roughly 46% of its all time high. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, alongside increasingly hawkish projections and tone from the Fed expressed in the latest FOMC minutes, are making the current environment especially challenging for highly volatile assets such as altcoins,” he wrote. The chart itself marks BTC near the mid-$60,000 range, underscoring his broader point: in a regime where Bitcoin direction is unclear and macro inputs are hostile to duration and volatility, breadth in higher-beta tokens can deteriorate quickly and then stay impaired. Why The 50-Week Line Matters Darkfost emphasized the 50-week moving average as a long-horizon filter used by market participants to separate corrective phases from structurally constructive ones. When a majority of tokens sit below it, rallies tend to be narrower, selection pressure rises, and “alt season” narratives become harder to sustain without a decisive shift in liquidity conditions. He attributed the current setup to “the increase in altcoin supply across the broader crypto market combined with still constrained liquidity conditions,” a combination that can mechanically dilute marginal flows. In that environment, he argued, outperforming becomes less about broad beta exposure and more about understanding how market structure has changed. At press time, the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin stood at $943.46 billion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As the crypto market recovers, Solana (SOL) has bounced from a major level trendline and momentarily reclaimed a key horizontal level. Some analysts have signaled that a retest of a crucial short-term resistance could be coming, while others have warned that a breakdown to new lows remains possible. Related Reading: Ethereum $1,900 Retest Could Decide Next Major Move – Is ETH Preparing For New Lows? Solana Bounces From Two-Year Trendline On Friday, Solana bounced 10.3% to break past the $85 area for the first time in three days. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between $78-$88 over the past week, briefly falling to $67 during last Thursday’s correction. SOL lost the mid-zone of its local range after recent market volatility, falling below $80 on Thursday. However, Today’s rebound has sent the altcoin above these recently lost levels, setting the stage for a potential recovery. Amid this performance, market observer Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that the cryptocurrency has reclaimed the key $80 level, which has historically served as major resistance and support. To the trader, the Solana must hold above this area and form a base above it before “watching for a low-timeframe market structure break back to bullish.” Analyst Ali Martinez observed that sustained buying pressure could push SOL’s price toward the $88 level, not seen since the start of the week. The altcoin has been unable to break above this level since last week’s breakdown, becoming a key short-term resistance area. A breakout from this level could open the door for a retest of the $90-$96 zone, where the April 2025 lows are. Meanwhile, Crypto Batman noted that Solana is retesting its two-year descending trendline in the weekly timeframe, located around the recent lows. The chart shows that the macro trendline has been holding since early 2024 and has been tapped multiple times throughout the cycle. As the analyst explained, “Over the past 2 years, every time the price touches this level, a massive reversal occurs.” During this period, it has also marked the bottom of each major correction, with the latest retest taking place in Q2 2025 and leading to the following quarter’s rally. SOL Breakdown Still Coming? Despite the bullish outlooks, other market watchers have shared potential bearish forecasts for Solana if momentum weakens. Altcoin Sherpa warned that SOL could drop to $50 if selling pressure pushes the price below a crucial area. The chart shows that after losing the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around the $121 mark, and the April 2025 lows, the key area to hold is the recently visited local range lows. As the analyst displayed, if the cryptocurrency fails to hold the $77-$78 price area, the next major historical support sits near the November 2023 breakout area, around the $51 mark. Market watcher Crypto Bullet suggested that Solana’s bottom may not be in yet, arguing that “those who bought BTC above $80k and SOL above $120 must stay trapped for a year or two.” Related Reading: LayerZero (ZRO) Soars 40% Amid Zero Blockchain Debut, Major Institutional Backing He affirmed that “returning to those levels anytime soon doesn’t make sense,” as the cryptocurrencies are in their markdown period. In an X post, he emphasized the market cycle phases, pointing out that the accumulation phase occurred between 2022 and 2023, while the distribution phase occurred between 2024 and the start of 2026. Based on this, the analyst’s chart shows that SOL could potentially find a bottom around the $40 area. As of this writing, Solana is trading at $84.17, a 2.5% decline in the weekly timeframe Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
After recovering from last week’s lows, XRP has been moving sideways, hovering between $1.40 and $1.45 during the past four days. As the price attempts to hold its local range lows, a market observer has affirmed that the cryptocurrency could be preparing for a potential recovery if its critical level holds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See New Drop To $60,000 Despite Bounce – Here’s The Level To Defend XRP At Critical Inflection Point On Tuesday, crypto analyst ChartNerd highlighted XRP’s performance over the past six months, suggesting that the altcoin could be ‘Positioned for a Major Bullish Structure Shift.” He explained that the cryptocurrency has seen “6 months of downside with virtually no relief,” while showing key signals, such as the MACD and RSI reaching historical oversold levels. Moreover, the analyst highlighted the simultaneous retests of the 50-Month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a prior eight-year resistance line, and the Fibonacci demand zone. “This marks the first 50EMA backtest since November 2024, and doing so, we have a wick marked on the 0.618/0.5 FIB demand zone. A popular reversal pocket,” he noted. In a video analysis, ChartNerd also emphasized that XRP is currently at a “critical inflection point,” pointing to its 200-week EMA, a level that had not been tested since 2024 until now, and where the price is currently sitting. The analyst detailed that “this is one of the most important times for XRP because if it holds the line above this moving average, this could set the pace for new all-time highs and continuation of the trend to higher targets.” For his bullish case, he pointed out XRP’s 2023-2024 performance, when it consolidated above the indicator and held it as support for over a year, leading to the breakout in November 2024. To him, the important part is to “hold the 200W EMA, defend it, and create a higher low base. This is where XRP could push to new all-time highs if it respects this long-term structure moving average.” Analyst Warns Of New 50% Correction The analyst also shared a bearish outlook for XRP, noting that losing the 200W EMA in the weekly timeframe and, more importantly, confirming it as resistance could signal a major drop ahead. Per ChartNerd’s analysis, if the altcoin starts closing below the 200W EMA, located around the $1.41 area, it risks descending toward the $0.70 mark. This is where the previous local highs that have not been retested since the late 2024 breakout are. He explained that in 2022, after reaching a local high of around $1.97, XRP “came back down for a retest on its 200-week EMA. It then placed a lower high, lost the 200-week, and corrected even further to its bear market lows.” Related Reading: An ‘Inverted Alt Season’? Analyst Explains How The Altcoins Market Has Changed In past cycles, when XRP failed to hold this critical inflection level, it entered a deep corrective period, crashing by around 50% toward the bear market bottom. “So technically speaking, if XRP lost right now, for example, the 200-week EMA and we crashed another sort of 49% roughly, you’re bringing XRP back down to 70, which is again those highs that I spoke about in the past that we haven’t actually back tested for support since breaking out,” he warned. As of this writing, XRP trades at $1.39, a 3% decline on the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the crypto market recovers from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial price zone. Despite the bounce, some analysts have warned that the bottom may not be in yet, suggesting the flagship crypto could soon retest its recent lows. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Bottom Below $60,000, Says Analyst On Monday, Bitcoin continued its sideways move, trying to turn a key area into support for the third consecutive day. After hitting a two-year low of $60,000 last week, the flagship crypto has bounced 17.5% to trade between $68,000 and $72,000 over the past few days. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the upper zone of its short-term price range, raising questions about the direction of BTC’s next move. As the price recovered, Crypto Bullet noted that the BTC printed a “strong weekly close” above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), leaving Thursday’s correction as a long wick. The analyst cautioned that these wicks have usually been filled the following week, pointing to the late February 2025 and early October 2025 corrections and the subsequent performance. Based on this, he suggested that Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 area again, where the 200-week Moving Average (MA) is also located. Similarly, Ted Pillows highlighted BTC’s Monday bounce above $70,000, asserting that the key level to defend is the $68,000 support, where the EMA200 sits. If the price fails to hold this level, the market observer suggested a deeper correction could be expected, with Bitcoin risking a drop below the recent lows if that level also fails to hold. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez hinted that BTC’s bottom might not be in, as “Bitcoin has historically bottomed around the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.” According to the chart shared on X, that level currently sits at $52,040. BTC To See Leeser Relief Rally? Another market watcher highlighted BTC’s macro descending triangle pattern, which it has been forming in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, suggesting that its potential bounce could be a “lesser relief rally compared to the 2024-2025 advance to the upside.” Rekt Capital noted that upon breakdown from its macro triangles, Bitcoin tends to react from the 50-Month EMA. However, it has historically been followed by a downside deviation below this level. “When viewed through the lens of the Macro Descending Triangle, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently failed to revisit the base of the Macro Triangle following breakdowns, which means BTC may fall short of $82.5k on any upcoming relief rally.” To the analyst, if BTC can build support above the $71,000 area, where the post-halving accumulation breakout occurred, the price could attempt a move into the mid-$70,000. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Clears The Threshold For Institutional Settlement – Here’s How However, the flagship crypto “is still negotiating whether it will locate itself within the Post-Halving Range,” and has not decisively reclaimed the upper zone of its current range as support, “is instead showing early signs of flipping into resistance on the Weekly timeframe.” As a result, Bitcoin could consolidate around its post-halving range again if the $70,000 mark confirms as resistance. “At roughly 30% of the way through this part of the market cycle, there remains ample time for further structural movement to unfold but history suggests whatever clustering develops will likely be distributive before continuing additional Bearish Acceleration,” Rekt Capital concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
While some consider the altcoins season may never come, others believe the altcoin market has changed, suggesting that a different version of the highly anticipated rally is in its early stages. Related Reading: Ethereum Targets April 2025 Lows As Price Drops Below $2,000 – What’s Next For ETH? ‘Inverted Altcoin Season’ Just Begun On Friday, the market recovered 15% from its multi-year lows, with most cryptocurrencies bouncing in the short-term timeframe. Amid the recent crash, investors’ sentiment has sunk to its lowest levels since 2022, with many expressing concerns about the future performance of altcoins. Market observer Ali Martinez discussed how the long-awaited altcoin season might have started, but not in the way most investors expected. In an X post, the analyst highlighted that after Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022, a nearly three-year bull run began, which carried the flagship crypto to its October all-time high (ATH). “During that entire period, many traders kept waiting for a traditional altcoin season: the familiar phase where Bitcoin rises and capital rotates broadly into altcoins, lifting nearly everything together,” he noted. However, unlike a traditional alt season, the market didn’t see altcoins rally all at once this cycle. Instead, many altcoins have been simultaneously breaking down structurally, with “channels that held for years (…) failing, support levels (…) giving way, and downside expansions (…) accelerating.” To him, “we are witnessing what I would call an inverted altcoin season.” Martinez noted the performance of cryptocurrencies like Filecoin (FIL), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Cardano (ADA), which have either completed or started the breakdown from their macro channel supports. He considers this to be where new opportunities emerge: For traders willing to shift their bias, this environment has created meaningful opportunities — especially on the short side. (…) What’s important is that this pattern isn’t finished playing out. As a result, the analyst affirmed that the new inverted altcoin season is in its early stages, concluding that this cycle, it “didn’t arrive as a broad rally. It arrived as a selective unwind.” No More Broader Altcoins Rally? During a Thursday panel at the Ondo Summit 2026, Bitget’s CEO Gracy Chen discussed what crypto will look like in 2030. The executive predicted that the Real-World Asset (RWA) sector will grow significantly in the next four years, with “everything tokenized.” However, she also shared the “controversial opinion” that the highly anticipated alt season “may never come” and that altcoins could never rally all at once again, which would be “a little bit tricky” for crypto businesses, she added. Others have previously discussed market changes and whether the “old cycles” for Bitcoin and altcoins still hold. Last year, analyst Altcoin Sherpa asserted that the crypto market is in a “hyper-accelerated regime.” He explained that the earlier cycles consisted of euphoric, corrective, and accumulation phases before the start of a recovery phase. Meanwhile, the market now experiences short-term uptrends followed by mid-term downtrends under the new regime. “We have 1-3 months of pump followed by 2-6 months of downtrend and rinse repeat,” he wrote. “There is no more euphoria where things go berserk for an entire year. Just 1-3 months and then down.” Related Reading: Solana Eyes Deeper Correction As Bearish Pattern Confirmation Targets $40 Based on the new system, he advised traders not to expect 2021-like market conditions for most altcoins or a traditional Alt season. Instead, Altcoin Sherpa suggested that investors should capitalize on shorter rallies while being aware of their limited duration. Nonetheless, he noted that, unlike previous cycles, altcoins will also recover faster and won’t take over a year to bottom and accumulate before a fresh leg up begins. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Crypto’s latest drawdown hit the majors in size: bitcoin fell about 8.1% over the past 24 hours and is down roughly 29.5% over the past 30 days, while Ether dropped about 9.4% on the day and about 41.4% over the past month; XRP was off about 10.3% in 24 hours and roughly 42.7% over 30 days, and Solana slid about 12.3% on the day and around 42.8% over the month. While many point to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as next US Federal Reserve chair, renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger argued on X on Friday that it is the cumulative effect of narrative fatigue, weakening marginal demand, and a macro regime wake-up call that hit after the market had already started to roll over. What Went Wrong For Crypto? Krüger framed the move as a momentum break that turned into a seller’s market. In his telling, the “10/10 slaughter” — a nod to the sharpness of the unwind, with a pointed aside about whether he’d “get sued” for mentioning Binance — was less a mystery than a pileup of factors that steadily drained risk appetite and then yanked away the last hope of a liquidity tailwind. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback He pointed first to the hangover from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), and then to a reversal in flows tied to criminal networks. Krüger said “major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October,” describing it as a material shift in demand that the market may have been underappreciating while price was still holding up. What went wrong with crypto 1. 10/10 slaughter (will I get sued if I mention Binance?). 2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) hangover. 3. Reversed flows from crime syndicates: major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October. 4. Quantum… — Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) February 6, 2026 Two other themes in his post leaned explicitly on fear and opportunity cost. Krüger flagged “quantum fears (real)” as a psychological overhang, and then argued that the AI boom has become a direct competitor for both capital and talent. He said the pivot isn’t subtle: “capital pivoting to AI,” “talent pivoting to AI,” and even “miners pivoting to AI,” all of which tighten the loop around crypto’s ability to reaccelerate. In parallel, he suggested the market’s global bid has narrowed. Krüger cited a “perception of Bitcoin as American,” adding that there are “few Chinese buyers,” a contrast with the participation he said had been “behind the metals uptrend in large numbers.” He also described a structural shift in who “owns” the trade. “The Swamp & Institutions taking over,” he wrote, arguing the market has moved from “Cypherpunk/Rebel tech to ETF tech.” In his framing, crypto used to be “for misfits & geniuses,” but now “it’s a line item in a 401k” — a change that, in his view, crowds out the volatility-driven momentum that historically pulled in OGs and retail. Other pressure points were more familiar: political risk around Trump association (“what happens once Democrats are back?”), “minimal innovation (since Hyperliquid),” and the brutal reflexivity of the Solana memecoin cycle — “Solana casino massacre (thank Pump Fun & the Memecoin Supercycle).” He paired that with a supply critique: “There are 29.91 million cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap,” he wrote, warning that “almost every coin in the top 200 is grossly overvalued” alongside “never ending” launches that “pump then dump to oblivion where only insiders profit.” He even declared the “dead digital gold narrative” as another drag on marginal buyers. Related Reading: Crypto Isn’t Broken, It’s A US Liquidity Squeeze, Says Raoul Pal The mechanical result, Krüger said, was straightforward: “sellers dumping more aggressively than usual on every pump,” while “buyers not showing up to buy the dips as much any longer.” Then came what he framed as the macro trigger that hardened the selloff. “And then came the Warsh nomination (beating Hassett and Rieder), and the market suddenly became deeply aware that Warsh is a strong advocate of a small balance sheet: goodbye Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) dreams, hello Quantitative Tightening (QT) fears. That is what happened.” Krüger stressed he was describing the past, not forecasting the next move, arguing the damage has already been done. Still, he noted that “volume, liquidations, implied volatility and options skew indicate that a local bottom is likely in.” In replies, the conversation turned toward what crypto might still be for in an AI-led cycle. A user said the rotation “makes sense,” but argued the bigger upside is in “agent stacks” that could eventually “manage crypto liquidity,” positioning crypto rails as infrastructure for machine-to-machine value transfer. Krüger largely agreed on the asymmetry. “I don’t know. I was hoping momentum. Momentum can do magic,” he wrote. “I’m very concerned about points #3 and #4. Saylor just started a new initiative on #4, maybe that helps. Reality is crypto can’t compete with AI. It’s impossible. But it could be used by AI. That’s high quality hopium right there. Agent-to-Agent payments would be better served on crypto rails.” At press time, BTC traded at $66,029. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum (ETH) has continued to decline alongside the rest of the crypto market, dropping over 9% in the daily timeframe and reaching new lows. As the cryptocurrency loses a “do-or-die” level, some analysts have expressed concern about ETH’s near-term future. Related Reading: Solana Eyes Deeper Correction As Bearish Pattern Confirmation Targets $40 Ethereum Correction Targets $1,500 On Thursday, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, reached an eight-month low of $1,934 after dropping below the psychological $2,000 barrier for the first time since May. The cryptocurrency has traded between $2,100 and $4,400 over the past two years, moving between the upper and lower boundaries of its macro range throughout the cycle and only losing its crucial support during the Q1-Q2 2025 market correction. In the past five months, ETH’s price has declined by over 60% from its August all-time high (ATH) of $4,956, raising concerns about the cryptocurrency’s short- and mid-term performance. In an X post, market observer Daan Crypto Trades stated that the “overall price action has been awful this cycle, but the levels have been very clean” on Ethereum’s chart. “These horizontal areas are all you need to be watching for the Ethereum price, in my opinion,” he wrote. “Break one, target the next. Works both ways, obviously.” Based on this, the trader highlighted the lower half of the altcoin’s macro range, where it has been trading for half of the cycle. If Ethereum is unable to reclaim $2,000-$2,100 soon, then the price would likely retest the $1,800 area. “That’s the breakout level from before the large rally driven primarily by Tom Lee/Bitmine,” he pointed out. Similarly, Altcoin Sherpa suggested that Ethereum is in a similar “do-or-die region” like Bitcoin (BTC). To the analyst, ETH’s chart “looks bleak” after losing the 200-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), adding that if it officially loses the $2,000 barrier, the altcoin will likely move to the April 2025 lows, located around the $1,400-$1,500 range. ETH Crash Drags Investors Notably, Ethereum liquidations, funds, and large-scale investors have taken a hit amid the recent price action. According to online reports, the unrealized losses of BitMine, the second-largest crypto treasury in the world, have significantly grown over the last couple of days. As reported by NewsBTC, the crypto treasury company’s unrealized losses had risen to $6.6 billion by Monday, leaving the Ethereum treasury company “on track to become the 5th-largest documented principal trading loss in history if sold.” In BitMine’s latest update, the firm’s chairman, Tom Lee, reiterated BitMine’s confidence in the cryptocurrency and its fundamentals despite the recent price action and broader market correction. “We view this pullback as attractive, given the strengthening fundamentals. In our view, the price of ETH is not reflective of the high utility of ETH and its role as the future of finance,” Lee asserted. Nonetheless, Ethereum’s drop below $2,000 has pushed BitMine’s unrealized losses to over $8 billion. Related Reading: BNB Chain Metrics Show Strong Performance As BNB Price Retests ‘Do Or Die’ Level Spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also performed negatively over the past day, with the category bleeding nearly $80 million on Wednesday, and total net outflows of $68 million during the first three trading days of the week. Meanwhile, Ethereum liquidations have hit $326.6 million over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data. The data shows that around $245.5 million comes from long ETH positions, with nearly half of the total value wiped out just in the last four hours. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As Solana (SOL) trades at multi-year lows, some analysts have lowered their end-of-year targets. Meanwhile, other market watchers have warned that the altcoin risks another 50% correction after a bearish formation was recently confirmed. Related Reading: BNB Chain Metrics Show Strong Performance As BNB Price Retests ‘Do Or Die’ Level Solana Confirms Head And Shoulders Pattern On Wednesday, Solana retraced nearly 10% in the daily timeframe, reaching a two-year low of $90. The cryptocurrency had been trading between $120 and $250 in the monthly chart since February 2024, retesting and bouncing from its macro support multiple times. The altcoin lost this crucial area over the weekend, closing January at around $105. After failing to maintain this level, SOL started the month attempting to hold the $100 psychological barrier and reclaim the $105 resistance as support. Nonetheless, the latest market movement, which also dragged Bitcoin (BTC) toward multi-year lows, pushed Solana below its bull market lows from last year. Amid this performance, market observer Alex Clay affirmed that SOL has “started to look bad.” The analyst affirmed that the altcoin’s chart shows a confirmed bearish formation after the recent price action, noting that it has also lost an important support zone. Per the chart, the cryptocurrency displays a macro Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern in the weekly timeframe, which has been forming since early 2024. The left shoulder developed during the Q1-Q2 2024 run, while the head formed during its late 2024 and early 2025 rally, which led to its All-Time High (ATH) of $293. This performance placed the neckline of the bearish formation around the $105 area. Notably, the pattern’s right shoulder began to develop after the Q3 2025 rally and was confirmed during the latest market crash. Now, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the neckline and could confirm it as resistance if the price closes the week under $105. Clay warned that the pattern’s first target sits around the $42 mark, which would represent a 55% correction from the current levels. SOL’s Chart Tell ‘Grim’ Story Other market watchers also expressed their concerns about SOL’s future performance, suggesting that a correction toward new lows is likely. Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that the Solana chart gives “a truly panic-inducing feeling” with “a vast no man’s land!” below it. Similarly, Crypto Tony asserted that after breaking the $100 low “with conviction,” the next major support for the altcoin sits around $50. To him, a correction toward this area is “obvious” as Bitcoin has “yet to find a bottom.” Altcoin Sherpa cautioned that SOL has also lost the 200-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is “a last stand area before $75 or lower.” He pointed out that the cryptocurrency tends to have strong price reactions due to “the gambling chain,” but noted that means corrections are usually stronger. Related Reading: Crypto Market Crash ‘Worse Than Expected’ But Bottom Might Be Near, Says Tom Lee Moreover, a major financial institution has recently lowered its end-of-year target for Solana. As reported by NewsBTC, Standard Chartered trimmed its near-term forecast from $310 to $250, mentioning the time required for the network’s next major use case to scale. Despite its short-term trim, the bank raised its longer-term targets, forecasting SOL at $2,000 by 2030 as it stops being “a one-trick pony” and evolves “from memecoins to micropayments.” As of this writing, Solana is trading at $93.28, a 27.9% decline on the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
After bouncing 2.6% from recent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has been attempting to turn the $82,000-$83,000 area into support. Some analysts have warned that the cryptocurrency must hold the crucial macro support levels or it will “confirm bearish acceleration.” Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Below $2,800 As Crypto Liquidations Near $1B – Should Investors Worry? Bitcoin To Drop 76% From its Peak On Thursday, Bitcoin crashed alongside the rest of the market, retracing nearly 9% in a day toward the $81,314 area. BTC had been trading between $86,000-$93,500 since early November, closing above the lower boundary of its two-month range in the weekly timeframe despite constant volatility. At the moment, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost this key support in the daily timeframe and risks a deeper correction if the price doesn’t recover the $86,000 level before the end of the week. As the price hovers between levels not seen since the late November correction, a market observer has warned that the leading cryptocurrency has lost its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support. Ted Pillows asserted that the last two times Bitcoin had a weekly close below the 100-week EMA, back in 2018 and 2022, it dropped 50% in just 4-6 weeks. Moreover, he highlighted BTC’s historical pattern, noting that the cryptocurrency has repeated a similar performance between the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles. The chart shows an eight-year ascending trendline that has marked the top of the previous cycles. The trendline began during the late 2017 peak and continued into the next bull market, marking the 2021 cycle top too. Notably, the 2018 bear market correction saw Bitcoin retrace 83.11% from the ascending trendline, while the 2022 pullback had BTC dropping 77.57% from the cycle top. Per the chart, this has formed a rising support line that has marked where BTC’s price bottomed during previous bear markets. Now, Bitcoin has seemingly topped around the trendline once again and could retrace up to 76.88% toward the $30,000 mark in 2026, if history repeats. BTC Retests Macro Triangle Bottom Analyst Rekt Capital also shared his perspective on BTC’s recent pullback now that it has broken down from its weekly price range and is revisiting the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, similar to its 2021 triangle formation that preceded the previous bear market. Per the analysis, the flagship crypto has shown a nearly identical price action to its 2021-2022 performance, with the price respecting the macro support and descending resistance. A breakdown from the macro triangle bottom “would confirm Bearish Acceleration,” he noted, adding that for bull market continuation, the cryptocurrency would need to break and hold above the macro descending resistance on longer timeframes. “Until then, we have more evidence that maybe we will be following 2021 [performance]. (…) It’s just a little bit more compressed.” He also pointed out that BTC is displaying a similar Bull Market EMAs crossover that occurred during the early stages of the previous bear market. Related Reading: Analysts Say Dogecoin Consolidation Is About To End – Parabolic Run Or Crash Ahead? Rekt Capital highlighted that the imminent crossover does not necessarily predict additional downside, but “is effectively confirming weakness, kind of responding to the weakness that we are already seeing and have seen for a while.” “History is suggesting to us that if we continue to make these macro lower highs, which are a result of weakening demand at historical support regions, then there’s more reason to be bearish rather than bullish,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Matt Hughes is arguing the global liquidity cycle is stretching well beyond its usual rhythm and that the extension is precisely why staying structurally bearish on crypto has been so punishing since 2020. Hughes, who posts as “The Great Mattsby,” said Monday that the cycle is “now ~6 years strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026,” framing the move as something closer to a super-cycle than a standard 4–6 year expansion. What This Means For The Crypto Market Hughes’ core claim is that the traditional mechanism that ends liquidity cycles, central banks tightening into contraction, is being blunted by a mix of debt math, fragmented global money creation, and a capital-intensive investment boom that keeps pulling liquidity back into risk assets rather than allowing it to drain out. “The current global liquidity cycle is on track to become the longest ever, smashing past the typical 4–6 year patterns we’ve seen historically. Here’s why it’s stretching into a true super-cycle (now ~6 years strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026):” Hughes wrote, before laying out the macro pillars of the thesis. First, Hughes points to the scale of leverage in the system as a constraint on normalization. “Global debt/GDP >350% creates a refinancing nightmare,” he wrote, arguing that each policy response has to be larger to prevent defaults and that aggressive tightening risks cascading sovereign and emerging-market stress. In that framework, policy makers are boxed into “perpetual support mode,” which delays the kind of contraction that would normally mark the end of a liquidity upswing. Related Reading: US Government Bitcoin, Crypto Theft Allegation Emerges Involving CEO’s Son Second, Hughes argues the cycle can run longer because global liquidity is no longer dominated by a single central bank. “The old dollar-only world is fragmenting,” he wrote, describing a “bifurcation of the global monetary system” in which liquidity creation outside the US can offset periods when the Federal Reserve is tighter. In his telling, a multipolar setup — spanning “BRICS nations,” China as a major credit creator, and alternative stores of value including “yuan, gold, crypto” — makes the overall system more resilient than past cycles that were more synchronized. Third, Hughes links the endurance of the cycle to an unusually large wave of capital demand. He calls AI, renewables, data centers, chip fabs, and blockchain “capital hogs,” arguing that the scale of funding required “demand & absorb endless liquidity.” He also ties that directly to market behavior, writing that risk assets like “IWM small-caps, ARKK innovation, BTC” pushing toward or near all-time highs is consistent with a cycle that is “closer to start than end.” Related Reading: Bitwise Says Crypto Has Likely Bottomed, Echoing Q1 2023 Setup Finally, Hughes emphasizes a policy bias toward preventing downturns. He described central banks as “hyper-proactive,” citing tools like forward guidance and yield curve control alongside tighter fiscal-monetary coordination. He also argued geopolitical priorities: reshoring, infrastructure, and the energy transition reinforce a stimulus-leaning posture, while traditional recession signals have been less reliable, pointing to a record-long 10y/3m inversion “without collapse.” Not everyone in the thread accepted the implication that the liquidity impulse remains cleanly supportive. A user posting as zam flagged a near-term risk: “My concern here is that Michael Howell says that liquidity momentum is slowing down considerably and that the liquidity is peaking very soon for this cycle. Any thoughts on that?” Hughes’ reply was succinct: “It can rotate into other assets as long as the economy is strong.” For crypto markets, the exchange captures the key tension: whether the cycle’s length is the dominant story, or whether a decelerating liquidity impulse changes the playbook via rotation rather than outright collapse. Hughes’ framing leaves the timing open-ended, asking followers whether the crypto peak arrives “at the end of 2026 or even longer,” while implicitly suggesting bears may need a clearer, system-wide rollover in liquidity, not just slower momentum, before the macro backdrop decisively turns. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.95 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Global liquidity specialist Michael Howell used an appearance on the Bankless podcast to deliver a clear, if uncomfortable, message for risk assets: the post-GFC “everything bubble” is ending as the global refinancing machine rolls over, and crypto is late in that cycle rather than at the start of a fresh one. Howell’s starting point is his own definition of liquidity, which diverges sharply from textbook aggregates like M2. “This is the flow of money through global financial markets,” he said. It is not bank deposits in the real economy, but “money that is in the financial markets… it looks at the repo markets, it considers shadow banking,” and “pretty much begins where conventional M2 definitions end.” On his Global Liquidity Index, weekly global liquidity was under $100 trillion in 2010 and now sits “just under $200 trillion” – a doubling in a decade and a half. Howell Flags Liquidity Peak What matters most to him, however, is not the level but the momentum of that liquidity. Howell has identified a remarkably stable 65-month global liquidity cycle that he interprets as a debt-refinancing rhythm. Capital markets, he argues, are no longer primarily about funding new investment: “Something like 70 to 80% of transactions… are debt refinancing transactions. They’re not about raising new capital.” Related Reading: Crypto Crash Is A Forced Crypto Seller Unwind, Glassnode Co-Founders In that world, “debt needs liquidity for rollovers but actually liquidity needs debt,” because roughly three-quarters of global lending is now collateral-backed. The result, as he puts it bluntly, is that “ironically it’s old debt that finances new liquidity.” To capture the systemic tension, Howell tracks a debt-to-liquidity ratio for advanced economies: the total public and private debt stock divided by the pool of refinancing liquidity. The ratio averages about two times and tends to mean-revert. When it drops well below that level, liquidity is abundant and “you get asset bubbles.” When it rises significantly above, “you start to see a stretched debt-liquidity ratio and you get financing tensions or refinancing tensions and you can see those basically morph into financial crisis.” Right now, he says, “we’re transitioning, unfortunately, out of a period that I’ve labeled the everything bubble,” a phase where liquidity was abundant relative to debt after repeated rounds of QE and emergency support. The COVID era deepened that imbalance by encouraging borrowers to “term out” debt at near-zero rates. “A lot of the debt that then existed was refinanced back into the late 2020s at low interest rates,” he noted. That created a visible “debt maturity wall” later this decade: heavy refinancing needs now coming due into a much tighter funding environment. Shorter-term, Howell is focused on the interaction between Federal Reserve liquidity operations, the rebuilding of the US Treasury General Account and growing stress in repo markets. SOFR, which “you’d actually expect to trade below Fed funds” because it is collateralized, has repeatedly traded above its normal range. “We’ve started to see these repo spreads blow out,” he warned, adding that “it’s not really the extent of these spikes… it’s really the frequency that’s the most important factor.” If trade fails and leveraged positions begin to unwind, “it’s going to turn quite ugly and that could be the start of the end of the cycle.” Related Reading: Crypto Markets Underestimate A Trump-Style Flood Of Rate Cuts: Expert Inside his four liquidity regimes – rebound, calm, speculation and turbulence – Howell places the US firmly in “speculation,” with Europe and parts of Asia in “late calm.” Historically, early and mid-upswings favor equities and credit, peaks favor commodities and real assets, downswings favor cash and then long-duration government bonds. LIVE NOW – The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts,… pic.twitter.com/Ryl3fqHoYR — Bankless (@Bankless) November 24, 2025 The Impact On The Crypto Market Crypto, in his work, straddles categories. “Crypto generally behaves a little bit like a tech stock and a little bit like a commodity,” he said. For Bitcoin specifically, “about 40–45% of the drivers… are global liquidity factors,” with most of the rest split between gold-like behavior and pure risk appetite. On the popular notion of a hardwired four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, Howell is unconvinced. “I don’t really see any evidence of that four-year cycle,” he said, arguing that the 65-month global liquidity/debt-refinancing cycle is the more robust driver. With that cycle projected to peak around now, crypto looks “late stage in the crypto cycle. So it could be over but it might not be.” The structural backdrop, in his view, is unambiguous: “The trend towards monetary inflation… is slated to continue for another two or three decades at least.” Against that, he argues, investors “have to have” monetary-inflation hedges: “It’s not Bitcoin or gold. [It’s] Bitcoin and gold.” Tactically, though, he is cautious. “We’ve not turned bearish risk-off yet, but we are not bullish short-term,” he said – and suggested that upcoming weakness in risk assets might be “a good time to pick up some more” of those long-term hedges. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.96 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson previously projected that the Bitcoin price could reach an impressive price of $250,000 as early as this year. This bold forecast, made in April, came at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $77,000 after achieving a record high of $109,000 in January. Hoskinson’s Optimistic Bitcoin Price Forecast Hoskinson’s optimism was based on his belief that international negotiations, particularly between the US and China, would favor Bitcoin’s growth. The Cardano founder suggested that easing tariffs would lead to a positive market reaction and bolster adoption, particularly with the anticipated passage of the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law by President Trump a few months later. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dips Below $90,000—Yet Altcoins Remain Unscathed: Here’s Why However, the current market realities have raised doubts about Hoskinson’s prediction. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations, briefly regaining momentum to reach $126,000 mid-October, only to see the broader crypto market subsequently shed over $1 trillion in total market cap. This downturn has largely been attributed to persistent selling pressure by concerned investors, and substantial outflows from the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, with nearly $2 billion sold over since October. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $89,300, marking a nearly 30% decline from its recently achieved all-time highs. In light of this, Jacob King, CEO of Swandesk, publicly dismissed Hoskinson’s $250,000 price target, characterizing it as unrealistic. Is Bitcoin In A New Bear Market Cycle? In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), King stated that such lofty price predictions are “pulled out of thin air” and reflect a market still grappling with “delusions.” King elaborated on his viewpoint, suggesting that the industry is in the early stages of a new bear market cycle. He is not alone in this assessment. Market expert Lark Davis recently noted that, based on the classic four-year Bitcoin price cycle, the cryptocurrency has officially entered bear market territory. Davis commented that this scenario leaves two possibilities: either the established four-year cycle is no longer relevant, or the market has indeed shifted into a bearish phase. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, he leans toward the latter interpretation. Related Reading: Kraken Achieves $20 Billion Valuation With $200 Million Investment From Citadel Additionally, others in the market have echoed these bearish sentiments. An analyst known as Mr. Wall Street has recently speculated that the Bitcoin price peaked at $126,000. The analyst believes that this may mark the zenith for this cycle, predicting that the Bitcoin price could next face significant downward pressure, potentially slipping to a range between $74,000 and $82,000. He further forecasts a possible decline to levels between $54,000 and $60,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has made headlines this week by consistently breaking all-time highs, recently surpassing the $126,000 mark for the first time. However, the current price action has not only drawn attention from investors but also reignited discussions surrounding a notable prediction made two years ago. An anonymous user had forecasted that Bitcoin would achieve a peak on October 6, 2025—a prediction that came to fruition just yesterday. Potential New Bear Market Ahead Despite this milestone, Bitcoin has retraced to around $121,000 within hours after today’s record, leading to a wave of liquidations from long positions across various exchanges. This rapid price fluctuation has led many to speculate that the recent peak could potentially mark the cycle’s all-time high, suggesting that Bitcoin might soon enter a new bear market phase. Related Reading: Is A $10,000 Ethereum Price Within Reach? Here’s What Experts Are Forecasting Next The prediction made in December 2023 posits that if historical patterns hold true, the bear market low is expected to occur precisely 364 days later. This theory has gained traction amidst today’s volatility, with experts warning that a shift in market sentiment could be imminent. Market analyst Doctor Profit has recently cautioned that despite the current bullish trend, the market is entering a precarious phase. He noted that while there is a prevailing sense of euphoria, underlying financial indicators are signaling a potential liquidity crisis. Highlighting the current situation, Doctor Profit pointed to the Reverse Repo (RRP) market, which has plummeted from a peak of $2.2 trillion in mid-2022 to a mere $8–10 billion today. This decline raises concerns about the stability of interbank liquidity, suggesting that the financial system may soon face significant dislocations if the RRP continues to dry up. Historical parallels from 2018, 2019, and 2023 indicate that such liquidity issues often precede major market corrections. Moreover, US banks are reportedly grappling with approximately $395 billion in unrealized losses as of the second quarter of the year, putting additional pressure on their balance sheets. Expert Sounds The Bitcoin Alarm In the crypto space, recent trends reveal substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with firms like BlackRock contributing over $1 billion in Bitcoin and $200 million in Ethereum just last week. However, Doctor Profit contends that the market’s broader liquidity picture remains concerning. While retail traders are expressing optimism about a “liquidity flood,” the expert cautions that the influx of cash into money market funds could actually drain liquidity from broader markets rather than enhance it. Related Reading: BNB Price Hits $1,240 Record High: Partners With Chainlink For On-Chain US Economic Data The current market environment is also characterized by a notable uptick in insider selling, according to the expert’s broader landscape analysis, in which executives are reportedly offloading shares at an unprecedented rate, even as retail investor inflows surge. The expert believes that this alleged market manipulation often signals a market cycle peak, creating what he believes “a highly toxic mix” that could have adverse implications for future price movements. In conclusion, Doctor Profit notes that the overall sentiment paints a bearish picture at a macro level. Both the crypto and stock markets are seen as being at an increased risk of entering a bear market after the fourth quarter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com