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After weeks of unusually tight price action, Bitcoin is set to break free from its prolonged volatility compression. With price now expanding beyond its narrow range, liquidation activity is increasing, and stronger reactions to macro and on-chain catalysts are renewing momentum. This shift suggests that BTC is entering a phase where wider daily ranges and heightened market participation are likely to dominate the near-term structure. What This Volatility Expansion Means For The Next Major Trend Bitcoin has officially entered a new volatility regime, and a major change in market structure is driving the shift. Analyst AliceMia has revealed on X that, for the first time, options open interest has surpassed futures open interest, signaling that price action is no longer dominated primarily by leveraged speculation and liquidation cascades. In contrast, BTC is now being influenced more by hedging flows, dealer positioning, and volatility structures. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Weekend Liquidity Sets In — $98,200 And $107,500 In Focus As a result, the price behavior is changing. Rather than clean, straight-line breakouts fueled by forced liquidations, the market is seeing more magnet-level reactions around major strike levels and expiries. BTC price is moving from a casino market to a structured market. This is usually what happens before the bigger and more sustained moves happen. Bitcoin continues to consolidate inside the weekend range, which often acts as engineered liquidity during the following week. Crypto trader Lennaert Snyder highlighted that the preferred scenario for long trades would be if BTC continues to range higher through Sunday and sweeps the weekend liquidity on Monday/Tuesday. According to Snyder, all eyes are on the US Open, and he will only prolong the sweep of the weekend liquidity if BTC breaks the structure by regaining the $95,820 high. Only after that structural break would long positions make sense, with the monthly high as the primary target. From there, a higher price is expected.  On the downside, the $94,635 low is still the level that must hold. As long as the price is above that on the higher timeframes, the bullish structure remains intact. However, if BTC loses that level and trades back into the previous range, momentum is likely to flip bearish. In that case, after confirmation, a short setup could become valid. Trader Snyder concluded that, as for Ethereum, the plan remains unchanged from the previous one. Deviation Confirmation Could Trigger The 2026 Super Rally The Bitcoin weekly plan is unfolding exactly as expected. Trader Alienopstrading also stated that shorts remain the focus for now since the $110,000 to $120,000 zone. BTC’s price has entered a minor consolidation and will see a move akin to what the analyst mapped out earlier. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To $100K: Why All Eyes Are On The Short-Term Holders Once the lows are swept and BTC confirms the deviation, we could finally witness the 2026 super rally that many have been anticipating. “Just like I give you the top, I also want to give you the bottom,” Alienopstrading noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below $95,000. BTC is consolidating losses and remains at risk of more losses if it dips below $92,000. Bitcoin started a sharp decline below $95,000 and $94,000. The price is trading below $93,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a declining channel with support at $93,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $954000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Sharply Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $94,500 support and started a fresh decline. BTC declined sharply below the $94,000 and $93,500 support levels. There was a move below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $97,898 high. Besides, there was a break below a declining channel with support at $93,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price even spiked below $92,000. It tested the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $97,898 high. Bitcoin is now trading below $93,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $92,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $93,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $93,500 level. The next resistance could be $94,000. A close above the $94,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $95,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $95,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $96,200 and $96,400. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $93,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $92,000 level. The first major support is near the $91,800 level. The next support is now near the $91,300 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $90,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $90,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $92,000, followed by $91,800. Major Resistance Levels – $93,000 and $93,500.

Going into the weekend, the price of Bitcoin was unable to sustain the bullish momentum it displayed earlier in the past week. Since Friday, January 16th, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, repudiated by the price resistance above, now trades in a tight consolidatory bracket. Interestingly, this period of silence has been deemed transient, as recent on-chain data suggests an exciting time ahead for the BTC price. Kimchi Premium Flips Positive As Local Demand Sees Buildup  In a January 17 post on the X platform, DeFi asset management platform XWIN Finance released an on-chain report, which suggests that Bitcoin might be closer to reaching a turning point than is apparent in its price action.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To $100K: Why All Eyes Are On The Short-Term Holders This hypothesis is based on the Bitcoin Kimchi Premium indicator. This measures the percentage difference between a cryptocurrency’s price (in this case, Bitcoin) on South Korean exchanges and its price on global exchanges. Simply put, it shows how much more Korean traders are willing to pay for Bitcoin. When the Kimchi Premium transitions steadily from low or negative levels to cross above historically significant levels, this is typically viewed as a long signal from the metric. This interpretation is because a rising Kimchi Premium reflects growing local demand in South Korea, usually often influenced by retail buyers. In essence, Korean buyers are willing to pay more for Bitcoin, hence overwhelming the available supply and consequently pushing prices upwards. In the post on X, XWIN Finance highlighted that this long signal had been sighted on the indicator. History also attests to the bullish significance of this signal; there have been major price moves to the upside following sustained increases in the Kimchi Premium. An example is the last sighting of the long signal in October 2023, where the index rose above a major threshold, as shown in the chart above. The price of Bitcoin witnessed a 370% rally after this signal went off in 2023.  According to XWIN Research, this same pattern seems to be playing out again in 2026. Hence, if the Kimchi Premium completes its long-signal formation, it could be a sign that buyers are occupying favourable positions for a bullish ride.  If history does repeat itself, the Bitcoin price could be on track to witness another exciting voyage, with the flagship cryptocurrency possibly putting in a more than 300% surge in the next cycle.  However, it is worth noting that macro conditions, institutional demand, and derivatives activity would be playing their roles to augment the pattern’s plausibility, as it should not be viewed as a standalone bullish sign. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $95,280, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Finally Flips Positive — Why This Shift Matters  Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin recently failed to overcome the $97,000 resistance following its price surge seen in mid-January. At the moment, the leading cryptocurrency has taken on a state of inertia, with no significant movement in either direction seen. However, an investigation of on-chain dynamics has recently revealed that trouble might be looming for the flagship cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Weekend Liquidity Sets In — $98,200 And $107,500 In Focus Sudden Inflows: Caution Or Opportunity? In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, key opinion leader CryptoZeno shares a potentially foreboding observation on Bitcoin’s market dynamics, saying the premier cryptocurrency could be facing a risk of distribution in the near-term. This conjecture is based on the Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow (Total) – All Exchanges metric, which serves the basic function of tracking the total amount of BTC transferred into centralized exchanges over a certain period.  CryptoZeno highlights in the post that exchange inflows have seen sharp surges through Bitcoin’s most-recent trading sessions, which represent one of the most significant spikes seen in the month of January. Typically, large inflows of BTC into exchanges act as a telltale sign that investors are preparing to distribute their holdings. This is contrary to any inclination towards long-term holding. Interestingly, the sign of distribution-readiness is more typical if the event were to occur just after a strong advance of the BTC price.  Also citing historical occurrences, CryptoZeno explains that such behavior, where BTC holders increasingly send their tokens to exchanges, suggests that investors are venturing out of Bitcoin and to more “liquid venues.” Expectedly, such a massive dispersal of their holdings would translate into price as increased sell-side pressure, especially in the short-term.  Notably, the analyst makes it clear that inflows alone do not tell a sure story of an immediate reversal. More accurately, spikes in exchange inflows often come before heightened volatility periods or corrective price action. Related Reading: Are XRP ETFs About To Act Like Banks? Expert Thinks So Analyst Highlights Mid- To Large-Size Bands As Main BTC ‘Movers’ CryptoZeno provides more context by merging the Spent Output Value Bands with the Exchange Inflow metric. This shows which investor cohort was more involved in creating the distribution signal seen. On inspection of the blended metric, it becomes apparent that the spike in exchange inflows was largely induced by mid-to-large size bands (10-100 BTC, and 100-1,000BTC). These size bands, according to the crypto expert, are associated with whales, long-term investors who are repositioning, or even ETFs. These investor classes do not merely act without strategic reasons. As a result, their activity is usually more important compared to retail activity. A simultaneous increment to exchange inflows, alongside large investor distribution, is another sign that the Bitcoin market is on the brink of a fragile phase. In the event that inflows remain high as price struggles to reclaim past highs, the world’s leading cryptocurrency could be entering a phase of trouble, as it would suggest the predominance of supply over demand. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth $95,250, recording almost no growth since the past day. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin remains anchored above key support as weekend trading unfolds, keeping $98,200 and $107,500 in focus. Market participants are watching closely to see if the uptrend can continue or if the weekend liquidity will trigger a test of lower levels. The next few sessions could define BTC’s short-term trajectory. Key Support Holds: $94,630 Remains Crucial According to a recent post by Kamile Uray, Bitcoin is still holding strong above the $89,326 support level, and as long as it remains above this zone, the possibility for the uptrend to continue remains intact. This level continues to act as a critical foundation for bulls, keeping the market structure aligned with potential further gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Near-Identical Fractal Before The 2021 Bull Run Started If BTC manages to break through the $98,200 resistance, the next key target at $107,500 comes into focus. At this level, a decisive move will determine whether the current uptrend is complete or push Bitcoin even higher. A daily close above $107,500 would mark the first higher high on the daily chart relative to the last downward wave, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend. However, if BTC is rejected at resistance and falls back below $89,326, the downtrend could resume. Should a reversal form within the $83,822–$82,477 support zone, Bitcoin may attempt another upward push, giving bulls a chance to regain control.  If BTC closes below $82,477, further downside is expected, potentially testing the $74,496–$71,237 region. This zone has historically served as a strong support area, and any confirmed reversal from here could set the stage for another bullish leg. Bitcoin Weekend Liquidity Ahead: Expect Range-Bound Action Crypto expert Lennaert Snyder outlined that Bitcoin is holding the key $94,630 support level, which also serves as the crucial H4 level to hold. On Friday, BTC retraced and briefly swept this low before stabilizing, reinforcing the importance of this zone for short-term market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Compresses Below $94K, But Possible Repeat Of 2025 Breakout Looms As we enter the weekend liquidity, Bitcoin is likely to trade within a defined range until Sunday evening or Monday. For bullish traders, the plan is to hold the low and watch for a market structure break above $95,820. Once this occurs, long positions could target the $97,960 monthly high. In anticipation of continued upside, only part of the position may be closed at the monthly high, letting 30%-40% run to capture further gains if momentum persists. However, if BTC loses the $94,630 support on the H4 and falls back into the previous range, a continuation toward lower lows becomes more likely. In that scenario, short positions would be considered after confirmation on a retest, giving traders a structured approach to managing risk and potential downside. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The price of Bitcoin began the new week on an exciting move to the upside. The premier cryptocurrency recorded a price ascent of about 9%, reaching a high of over $97,000 and falling just short of its past six-figure valuation. Interestingly, a recent on-chain revelation shows that an underlying change was simultaneously taking place as the price of Bitcoin soared on the charts. Are The BTC Bulls Back In Control? In a January 16 post on social media platform X, crypto analyst Darkfost revealed a notable shift in the on-chain power dynamics, saying that the bulls are seemingly back in control. The relevant indicator here is the BTC Net Taker Volume, which tracks which of the buyers or sellers is more aggressive in the market. The metric does so by measuring the net difference between buy and sell market orders executed on derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Free From The Current Range — $107,000 Now The Level To Watch Before this recent shift, the net taker volume had fallen into deep negative territory, reaching a bottom of about –$489 million. Due to the lack of demand in the market over that period, the price of BTC continued to fall as selling pressure grew. However, this market scenario has shifted, as of Friday, January 16th. The Bitcoin Net Taker Volume now records a positive reading, with more than $39 million in buy-side volume from the futures market. This means BTC traders are becoming increasingly interested in opening long positions — and aggressively at that.  Historically, an increasing buying interest among participants of the futures market typically signals rising bullish sentiment. In turn, upward price pressure increases through leverage, leading to amplified short-term price moves if sustained. Bitcoin Market Outlook Darkfost further explained that, although there are signs that Bitcoin ETF inflows might be picking up slightly, it remains that spot buying is yet to gain enough strength to sponsor a decisive bullish move. As a result, all eyes fall on derivatives activity, as it currently serves as support for the Bitcoin price. Ultimately, the present scenario is best interpreted as the end of bearish pressure, rather than a blatant structure shift. However, in the event that net taker volume continues to grow positively, the narrative could shift from dwindling bearish pressure to mounting bullish momentum. Till then, market participants are advised to deal cautiously until it is confirmed that the derivatives-sponsored momentum is sustainable for the flagship cryptocurrency’s growth. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at about $95,357, with insignificant movement over the past day.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price resumed its hot start to the new year this week, jumping above the $97,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. The flagship cryptocurrency reignited debates about the current phase of the market in its latest attempt to reclaim its six-figure valuation. Having surpassed the previously formidable $94,000 technical level, the Bitcoin price seemed set to cross the $100,000 mark again. However, recent on-chain evaluation has brought focus on an ongoing phenomenon among a specific set of investors in the market. Bitcoin Price Action Could Hinge On STH Realized Price In a January 16 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that the average realized price of the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is another key level to watch. This price level represents the average price where the most recent (1-3 months) set of BTC investors acquired their coins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees ‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead According to data highlighted by Darkfost, this STH realized price currently sits at around $102,000, meaning that the majority of the Bitcoin short-term investors are at a loss. The market pundit noted that this particular evaluation is adjusted to account for the 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase. Darkfost noted that, as the Bitcoin price approached the realized price of the short-term holders, the investors are caught between two primary choices. It is either this group of investors holds and hopes for further upside, or they exit once they break even. Given that they are the most reactive set of investors, the Bitcoin short-term holders have not hesitated in taking short-term profits, as indicated by the latest exchange inflows. Darkfost, however, noted that the STH realized price level will be crucial to watch once all the profit-taking is done. Darkfost said that the Bitcoin price trading below this cost basis historically represents a good accumulation opportunity. Nevertheless, the analyst warned that bear market periods should be excluded, as short-term holders tend to witness prolonged drawdowns and pain during this season. STH Cost Basis Key For Momentum To Re-Accelerate Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish agreed in a recent post on X that the STH average realized price is a key inflection point. According to the market pundit, the Bitcoin price reclaiming this cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit. Beamish stated that reclaiming the STH realized price would be necessary for bullish momentum to re-accelerate, while failure to do so would keep the BTC market in recovery mode. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around at $95,300, reflecting no significant change in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows Bitcoin short-term holders have transferred a large amount of tokens to exchanges alongside the asset’s recovery rally. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Made Profit Transactions To Exchanges In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the exchange deposit transactions of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs). Related Reading: XRP In A ‘Super Cycle’? SuperTrend Suggests Another Story STHs include the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. They make up for one of the two main sides of the network divided on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as long-term holders (LTHs). Historically, the STH cohort has proven to represent the weak hands of the market, who easily react to market volatility. In contrast, LTHs include the diamond hands of the sector. Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery rally recently, so, considering the track record of STHs, some selling from them is likely to have occurred. One way to track distribution from the group is through its exchange inflow data. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the exchange deposit transactions that Bitcoin STHs have made over the last couple of months. In the graph, the STH exchange inflows are shown separately for profit and loss transactions, based on whether holders held an unrealized gain or loss before sending the tokens to exchanges. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 24-hour sum of the STH exchange deposit transactions in profit has shot up as the cryptocurrency has gone through its rally, reaching a high of 41,800 BTC. Meanwhile, loss exchange inflows have shrunken, falling to a low of 1,800 BTC. Thus, it would appear that selling focus from STHs has largely shifted to profit-taking. Though, while some STHs may be harvesting profits, the cohort has a whole is still in a state of net unrealized loss as Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Profit, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post. The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that measures the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors or addresses as a whole. The STH version specifically tracks the break-even level of the supply purchased within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says As displayed in the above chart, the Bitcoin spot price plummeted under the STH Realized Price during the drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, it has remained under the line, although the latest rally has brought it close. Currently, the indicator’s value is situated at $99,412. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone down since its high above $97,000 earlier in the week as its price is now trading around $94,600. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin may be replaying a market structure that historically preceded one of its most powerful rallies. A high-timeframe trader has identified a fractal that closely mirrored Bitcoin’s behavior ahead of the 2021 bull run. He argues that the current cycle is unfolding in line with a well-established structural script observed across multiple market cycles spanning more than a decade. Bitcoin’s Fractal: Rooted In High-Timeframe Structure The fractal highlighted by the trader is based on a direct structural comparison between Bitcoin’s current cycle and the 2021 setup, illustrated in a chart he attached to his analysis. The chart aligns both periods to show how price advanced into a broad distribution range, rolled over into a sharp corrective phase, and then attempted to recover while capped by descending resistance. In both cases, Bitcoin retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level before stabilizing, marking a shared technical inflection point rather than a coincidental price overlap. Related Reading: XRP Price Is Approaching A Key Decision Zone, But Structure Is Still Firmly Bullish This structural symmetry extends beyond price levels into timing. According to the trader, the current cycle has tracked the rhythm of prior four-year cycles with notable consistency, allowing historical all-time highs and lows to be mapped objectively. Using that same framework, the data previously supported a high-probability short near the peak candle around $123,000, reinforcing his view that recurring market structure continues to guide directional risk. By comparing the two cycles directly, the trader argues that Bitcoin’s behavior is being evaluated through a recurring structural pattern that has remained intact for more than 12 years, rather than through subjective bias. $100,000 As A Structural And Psychological Ceiling Within the identified fractal, psychological resistance is a key determinant of Bitcoin’s upside potential. Looking back at 2021, Bitcoin failed to decisively reclaim the $50,000 level and instead front-ran it before reversing, establishing a behavioral precedent for how traders respond to significant round-number thresholds. Applying this pattern to the current cycle, $100,000 now functions as the analogous psychological ceiling. As a result, some participants may act preemptively, which could generate selling pressure from underwater holders and distribution by larger players. Related Reading: Pundit Reveals The Biggest Enemy Of XRP Investors As Price Struggles At $2 This potential resistance is reinforced by diagonal trendlines that mirror the caps observed in 2021, creating a structural limit on upside momentum. Within this context, short-term extensions into the $98,000–$99,000 range remain plausible and are fully compatible with the fractal, as price can approach the psychological ceiling. Moreover, positioning data from the past six to eight months indicates that the median short-term buyer cost basis has clustered between $95,000 and $100,000, highlighting zones where profit-taking and defensive selling are likely to intensify. These elements suggest a scenario where price may test resistance, experience temporary stalls, and respect structural limits without invalidating the broader high-timeframe thesis. However, the trader notes that the framework is probabilistic: only a sustained move above $104,000–$105,000 would break the fractal pattern and necessitate a full reassessment of the high-timeframe trend. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Recent allegations regarding the Bitcoin (BTC) sale by the US Marshal Service (USMS) — operating under the Department of Justice (DOJ) — have been addressed by White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, who confirmed that the digital assets forfeited by Samourai Wallet and its founders have not been liquidated. DOJ Confirms Samourai Bitcoin Will Not Be Sold In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Witt clarified that the DOJ has verified that the digital assets taken from the Samourai Wallet will not be sold, in accordance with Executive Order 14233. He emphasized that these assets will remain on the government’s balance sheet as part of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto ETFs Set To Attract $130 Billion-Plus Inflows This Year, JPMorgan Predicts Earlier in the month, speculations suggested that the USMS, following directives from the DOJ, had sold approximately 57.55 Bitcoin forfeited in the Samourai Wallet case through Coinbase Prime on November 3, 2025.  The lack of confirmation until now had led experts to assert that such actions would violate EO 14233, signed by President Donald Trump. This order mandates that Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil forfeiture be retained and added to the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, rather than being sold off. The Bitcoin in question is valued at almost $6.4 million and was seized from the creators of Samourai Wallet. According to US authorities, the cryptocurrency mixer facilitated over $237 million worth of illicit transactions.  Samourai Wallet’s Co-Founders Face Justice The DOJ had announced in November the sentencing of Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, the co-founders of Samourai Wallet.  Rodriguez, the company’s CEO, and Hill, its Chief Technology Officer, were implicated in a conspiracy involving the operation of a money transmitting business that “knowingly” transmitted proceeds from criminal activities.  Related Reading: XRP Will Skyrocket Beyond $18: Analyst Suggests 800% Growth Potential In 2026 The criminal proceeds laundered through their platform originated from various illegal activities, including drug trafficking, darknet marketplace operations, cyber intrusions, fraud, murder-for-hire schemes, and even a child pornography website. Rodriguez received a five-year prison sentence, while Hill was sentenced to four years. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,300, marking an almost 6% increase over the past seven days. However, it is still unable to regain the key $100,000 level, which has eluded the cryptocurrency since November last year.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target.  Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000.  Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week.  The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers.  Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more.   Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested.  More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

According to analysts at JPMorgan, crypto-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly for Bitcoin (BTC), are expected to see inflows in 2026 that will far exceed those from 2025.  Led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analysis highlights a significant trend where capital flowing into the crypto market through ETFs reached a record high of $130 billion last year, driven by a growing interest in digital asset treasuries (DATs). DAT Companies Lead Crypto Inflows In 2025 Panigirtzoglou explained that the inflows observed in 2025 were largely attributed to Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, which the analyst suggests were primarily fueled by retail investors, as well as Bitcoin acquisitions by DAT companies.  In contrast, participation from institutional investors and hedge funds, as indicated by the buying activity in Bitcoin and Ethereum Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures, appeared to have declined compared to 2024.  Related Reading: Zcash Foundation Investigation Closed: SEC Decision Sparks 12% Jump In ZEC Price The analysts noted that over half of the total digital asset inflows in 2025, approximately $68 billion, came from DAT companies. Another $23 billion was attributed to formal strategies, marking a slight increase from $22 billion in Bitcoin buying from the previous year.  Notably, other DATs acquired about $45 billion in digital assets, a significant rise from just $8 billion in 2024. However, most of these purchases occurred earlier in the year, and by October, the momentum in crypto buying from DATs had markedly decreased. Crypto venture capital funding also contributed to the overall capital flows, though this area remained substantially lower than the peaks experienced in 2021 and 2022.  While total crypto venture capital funding saw a modest increase in 2025 compared to 2024, the number of deals declined sharply, and investment activity became increasingly concentrated in later-stage funding rounds.  JPMorgan further suggested that this muted growth in venture funding was, in part, due to the increasing allocation of capital toward DATs. Funds that might have otherwise been directed to early-stage startups were increasingly diverted toward treasury strategies that provide immediate liquidity. Regulatory Changes Anticipated To Boost Institutional Interest  Looking forward, the analysts expect a rebound in institutional crypto flows in 2026, which could be spurred by the anticipated passage of additional regulatory measures, such as the Crypto Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) in the US.  This anticipated legislation is expected to further entrench institutional adoption of digital assets, along with renewed institutional engagement in areas like venture capital funding, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings (IPOs).  Related Reading: Crypto Market Bill Draft Criticized For Allowing Continued Developer Prosecution However, the expected markup of this bill has been delayed late on Wednesday, as crypto industry leaders, including the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN), have withdrawn their support for the legislation.  This is attributed to issues related to key provisions, which the firm’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, has described as making this version “materially worse than the current status quo”. At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was trading at $96,050, having recorded gains of 10% over the previous fourteen days, as broader inflows have already returned to the market since the beginning of the year.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has shown renewed bullish momentum in recent sessions, pushing price back toward the $97,000 level after weeks of persistent selling pressure. For much of the recent consolidation, the market struggled under distribution from short-term participants and cautious positioning from traders who remained uncertain about the broader trend. That dynamic now appears to be shifting. While price action alone does not confirm a full trend reversal, the latest rebound suggests that downside pressure is easing and that buyers are becoming more willing to absorb available supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Take Control: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for First Time Since October This improvement in price behavior is supported by on-chain context rather than pure speculation. A quick insight from a CryptoQuant analyst highlights a rare development in market sentiment: the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to 20, a level that has historically appeared only a handful of times over the past several years. Such readings typically reflect deeply pessimistic conditions, when bullish signals across multiple indicators are scarce. Paradoxically, these environments often coincide with transitional phases rather than sustained declines. When bearish sentiment becomes widespread and measurable optimism disappears, markets tend to become increasingly sensitive to even modest improvements in demand. Bitcoin Bull Score Hits A Rare Historical Level Over the past six years, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen to levels of 20 or lower only seven times. The market is now experiencing the seventh occurrence, placing the current environment among the rarest sentiment regimes in Bitcoin’s history. This index aggregates multiple on-chain and market indicators to assess whether conditions favor bullish continuation or reflect broad-based weakness. Readings near 20 indicate that very few bullish signals are active at the same time, highlighting a market dominated by caution rather than optimism. Historically, such extremes have tended to appear during transitional phases. They often emerge late in corrections, when selling pressure has largely played out, but confidence has not yet returned. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal. However, it does suggest that downside momentum is becoming increasingly fragile, as most participants who wanted to de-risk have already done so. The timing of this signal is particularly relevant as Bitcoin approaches a critical psychological zone near $100,000. This level represents both a major round-number resistance and a key reference point for short-term and long-term holders. The coming weeks will be decisive. A sustained push toward and above $100K, accompanied by improving breadth in on-chain indicators, would likely mark a shift away from defensive positioning. Conversely, failure at this level could reinforce consolidation and prolong uncertainty. Related Reading: OG Bitcoin Selling Slows Sharply: Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet Weekly Chart Shows Recovery Attempt Below Resistance Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to reassert strength after a prolonged corrective phase, with price now trading around the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This area is technically important, as it aligns with a former consolidation range that acted as support during mid-2025 and later flipped into resistance after the November breakdown. The recent rebound suggests buyers are willing to defend higher lows, but confirmation remains incomplete. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is still trading below the declining 50-week moving average, which currently caps upside attempts. This level has acted as dynamic resistance during previous bear-to-neutral transitions. And will be a critical area to reclaim for trend continuation. Below the price, the 100-week moving average continues to slope upward and has provided structural support during the recent pullbacks. Reinforcing the idea that the broader market structure remains intact despite short-term weakness. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Near A Profit Flip: A Key Level Comes Into Focus Volume behavior is also notable. The rebound toward $97,000 occurred without a major expansion in volume, revealing that the move may still lack strong conviction. This supports the view that the current advance could be a recovery leg within a larger consolidation rather than the start of an impulse. If Bitcoin can consolidate above $95,000 and eventually reclaim the 50-week moving average, the probability of a continuation toward the $105,000–$110,000 region increases. Failure to hold this zone would expose the market to renewed downside tests toward the mid-$80,000s. Keeping the broader consolidation unresolved. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $96,000. BTC is correcting some gains and might decline to $94,000 before a fresh increase. Bitcoin started a decent increase above $95,000 and $96,000. The price is trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a declining channel or a possible bullish flag forming with resistance at $96,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $95,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips and Corrects Some Gains Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $93,500 support and started a fresh increase. BTC was able to settle above $95,000 and $95,500. The bulls were able to push the price above $96,000. Finally, the price spiked above $97,500. A high was formed at $97,898, and the price is now correcting some gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $97,898 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $95,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $96,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $96,200 level. There is also a declining channel or a possible bullish flag forming with resistance at $96,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $97,000. A close above the $97,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $97,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $98,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $99,200 and $100,000. Downside Continuation In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $96,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $95,000 level. The first major support is near the $94,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $97,898 high. The next support is now near the $93,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $91,850 support in the near term. The main support sits at $91,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $95,000, followed by $94,000. Major Resistance Levels – $96,200 and $97,000.

Bitcoin has pushed above the $97,000 level, extending a recovery that has brought short-term relief to a market weighed down by weeks of uncertainty. While the move has reignited optimism among some investors, a large share of analysts remains cautious, arguing that the rally could still be a counter-trend bounce within a broader bearish setup for 2026. Price strength alone, however, does not fully explain the current move. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience after decisively breaking the $94,200 resistance zone and accelerating toward the $97,500 area, with on-chain data offering important context behind the advance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Take Control: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for First Time Since October One of the key indicators supporting this move is Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a metric that sheds light on long-term holder behavior. VDD measures how long coins remained inactive before being spent, weighted by transaction size. In simple terms, it helps distinguish whether price movements are driven by experienced holders distributing old coins or by newer coins changing hands. As of January 2026, VDD is hovering around 0.53, a historically low reading. This implies that the coins currently moving on the network are relatively young, while older holdings remain largely dormant. Such behavior suggests that long-term holders are not rushing to sell into strength, lending structural support to the recent breakout—even as the broader market debates whether this surge marks renewed strength or merely a temporary reprieve. Long-Term Holders Reinforce Bitcoin’s Breakout Quality The report by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant, highlights an important dynamic behind Bitcoin’s recent move above key resistance levels. Despite the sharp price appreciation, long-term holders remain largely inactive. In practical terms, this means that investors who have held Bitcoin through multiple cycles are not using the current strength as an opportunity to exit positions. Their restraint significantly improves the quality of the rally. Historically, this behavior has mattered. When Bitcoin advances while Value Days Destroyed (VDD) stays low, it signals that older coins are not entering circulation. Demand is being met primarily by younger supply, allowing price to rise without triggering structural selling pressure from the most experienced market participants. These phases have often aligned with healthier expansion periods rather than short-lived speculative spikes. The current breakout fits that historical pattern. Bitcoin’s move through resistance has not been accompanied by a surge in long-dormant coins being spent. Instead, long-term capital appears comfortable holding through higher prices, suggesting confidence in the broader market structure rather than urgency to lock in gains. This supportive backdrop remains conditional. As long as VDD stays suppressed, the rally retains a strong foundation. However, a sustained increase in the indicator would change the narrative, signaling that long-term holders are beginning to distribute and potentially marking a shift toward heavier selling pressure. Related Reading: OG Bitcoin Selling Slows Sharply: Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet Price Tests Key Resistance After December Rebound Bitcoin price is trying to stabilize after a sharp rebound from the December lows, with the chart showing BTC reclaiming the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This level coincides with a confluence of technical factors, making it a critical area for short-term direction. The recent recovery followed a strong sell-off from the November highs. Where the price broke below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and briefly capitulated toward the low $80,000s. From a structure perspective, BTC is now printing higher lows on the daily timeframe, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. Price has also reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which often acts as dynamic resistance during downtrends. Holding above this level would be constructive, as it suggests buyers are regaining control after weeks of distribution and volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH SOPR Signals Early Capitulation, But Selling Pressure Remains Contained However, overhead resistance remains significant. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently clustered between $100,000 and $108,000, represent a heavy supply zone where previous breakdowns occurred. A failure to push higher could lead to renewed consolidation or a pullback toward the $92,000–$94,000 support range. Volume has increased during the rebound, showing genuine participation rather than a low-liquidity bounce. Still, the broader trend remains unclear. For bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs acceptance above $97,000 and a clear attempt toward the $100,000 psychological level. Otherwise, the move risks being a technical rebound within a larger corrective phase. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed how Bitcoin is currently in a bullish zone based on the behavior of whale and retail investors. Bitcoin Major & Retail Entities Have Shown Opposite Trajectories Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about how Bitcoin investor behavior currently compares between the top and low ends. Sharks and whales make up for the former category, while retail investors represent the latter. Formally, the wallet ranges of the two sides of the market are defined as 10 to 10,000 BTC and less than 0.01 BTC. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Bitcoin supply held by each of these cohorts over the last few months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Turns ‘Neutral’ For First Time Since October As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin sharks and whales have seen their combined supply rise during the last few days, indicating that the large investors have been accumulating. Meanwhile, the retail investors have sold instead. This could imply that the big-money hands are backing the latest price rally, while small holders don’t believe the run will last, so they are exiting with their profits. If history is to go by, this may actually be a positive signal. According to the analytics firm, whale and retail behavior diverging in this manner puts the market in what it defines as the “Very Bullish” zone. “This is the ideal setup for a bull run,” noted Santiment. In the chart, the analytics firm has also highlighted four other zones for BTC based on the trajectories followed by the whale and retail supplies. “Very Bearish” (colored in red) follows the same contrarian logic as the Very Bullish region, with the zone appearing when large entities are selling, and retail is accumulating. Bearish (orange), Neutral (yellow), and Bullish (blue) map out the spectrum between the two extreme regions. Bitcoin’s latest venture into the green Very Bullish zone has come as sharks and whales have loaded up on 32,693 BTC (worth about $3.1 billion) since January 10th, corresponding to a supply increase of 0.24%. Retail investors have sold 149 BTC ($14.4 million) in this window instead, equivalent to a drop of 0.30%. Related Reading: Litecoin Whale Activity Spikes To 5-Week High: Reversal Or Continuation Signal? It now remains to be seen whether BTC will stay in this region for long or if another shift in investor behavior will take place. “How long it lasts depends on how long retail doubts the mini rally that has formed,” explains Santiment. BTC Price Bitcoin witnessed a break beyond the $97,000 level on Wednesday, but the bullish momentum has since cooled, with the BTC price returning to the $96,900 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is starting to emerge from its consolidation phase, suggesting that a decisive move may be underway. After holding above the former resistance, the market is starting to show early signs of confidence returning. The spotlight now shifts to the $107,000 level, where the strength of this breakout will be truly tested. Holds Firm Despite A Weak Start To The Session Bitcoin Meraklsi, in a recent BTC market update, outlined a largely positive outlook despite the day beginning with some downside pressure. While early trading showed red across the board, the analyst emphasized that the broader structure remains healthy, with Bitcoin still trading comfortably above the $96,000 region. Related Reading: BTC Breaks Higher as Record Bitcoin ETF Inflows Trigger Wave of Bearish Liquidations A major technical development highlighted in the update is Bitcoin’s breakout above the long-watched $94,800 resistance level, which previously capped upside moves, and is now acting as support. So far, price action suggests that buyers are stepping in on pullbacks, reinforcing the strength of this level and reducing the risk of an immediate reversal. As long as BTC continues to hold above $94,800, the bullish roadmap remains unchanged. The next clear upside target sits at $107,300, a level that could mark the next phase of expansion if momentum continues to build.  The analyst also addressed why altcoins have yet to respond meaningfully to Bitcoin’s strength. In the view, the wider market is still waiting for confirmation and confidence from BTC itself. That confidence is more likely to emerge once Bitcoin reaches the $107,300 region. At that point, improved sentiment and risk appetite could spill over into altcoins, setting the stage for a stronger, more synchronized market move. Bitcoin Tests The Upper Boundary Of A Long-Standing Range According to Crypto Candy, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning out of a prolonged consolidation phase after spending considerable time moving sideways. At the time of the post, price was challenging the upper boundary of the $94,000–$96,000 range, signaling a potential shift in market momentum as buyers attempt to regain control. Related Reading: Wall Street Analyst Is Still Bullish On Bitcoin, Predicts Price Recovery BTC is now trading above it, but it must continue to hold above the range, which serves as a crucial validation zone. Sustained strength above this area would confirm bullish intent and increase the probability of a continued advance, with the $107,000 region standing out as the next major upside objective in the weeks ahead. However, the setup is not without risk. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its position above $94,000, the current move could quickly lose traction and be labeled a false breakout. Such a development invites renewed selling pressure, potentially dragging the price back toward lower support zones as the market reassesses direction. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The recent Bitcoin rally may be driven by real spot demand on Coinbase. Data indicating elevated spot activity on Coinbase suggests that this move higher is bolstered by direct purchases rather than leveraged positioning in derivatives markets. This distinction matters because Spot buying reflects a real capital commitment, not a temporary bet. Why Risk Management When Demand Is Structural The Bitcoin rally since Sunday’s Powell subpoena news has been largely linked to Coinbase spot buyers. Crypto trader Alex Krüger has highlighted on X that both the Adjusted Coinbase Premium and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) show steady spot accumulation, which is exactly why this has been a true hated rally even among bitcoiners. For over a month, the dominant narrative in every crypto chat room has been that BTC is lagging while equities and commodities are moving upward. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know However, the fun fact is that equities are not accurate, but 40% of the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor’s 500) stocks have actually closed red in 2025, (39.2% to be precise). Perception is doing a lot of work here, and the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) move on Powell represented a major macro litmus test for BTC. Kruger claims that the BTC long-term value proposition is about protecting against the tail risk of central bank profligacy.  On Monday, BTC surged upward, although the move was just a little surge. According to Krüger, the BTC key battlefield remains the 50-week moving average (WMA), which is currently around $101,420. Meanwhile, the trader is looking to take some profits into short liquidations right above the $100,000 mark. Why Bitcoin Benefits First From Institutional Flows The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set for markup today, January 15th, 2026, in the Senate Banking Committee. According to the update by BTC_road_to200k on X (Formally Twitter), this is where the lawmakers will debate and shape the final version of the bill before it moves forward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Stays Pinned Above Support, Setting Up a Bigger Move This matters because the art aims to clear up the ongoing regulatory uncertainty between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has been a major source of hesitation for large institutional players looking to move into Bitcoin and other digital assets. Furthermore, the Clarity Act will be a turning point as it aims to clear rules that will bring more confidence to banks, pension funds, and large investors, which often translates into higher demand and stronger price momentum for BTC. As the regulatory clouds lift, the market might start experiencing a renewed wave of institutional money flowing in, and that’s obviously bullish for BTC. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Sentiment in the Bitcoin market has marked an improvement recently as the Fear & Greed Index has surged into the neutral zone for the first time in months. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Now Pointing At ‘Neutral’ The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. It determines the investor mentality using the data of five factors: market cap dominance, trading volume, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, the index makes use of a numerical scale running from 0 to 100. All values below 47 correspond to fear among the investors, while those above 53 reflect the dominance of greed. The metric being between the two cutoffs suggests a net neutral sentiment. Related Reading: Litecoin Whale Activity Spikes To 5-Week High: Reversal Or Continuation Signal? Now, here is how the current market sentiment is like, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the index has a value of 48 right now, indicating that sentiment around Bitcoin is neutral. This is a sharp change from how the market mood looked just yesterday. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index had a value of 26 on Tuesday, which means that the investor sentiment was deep inside the fear zone. The reason behind the turnaround in trader mood has been the coin’s recovery rally, which has now taken its price beyond the $97,000 level. Since the Fear & Greed Index hasn’t made it into the greed zone yet, investors still look to be hesitant about embracing the bullish price action. In the past, the cryptocurrency market has often tended to move against the expectations of the majority, so the fact that traders aren’t outright greedy yet could actually be a positive sign for the rally’s sustainability. That said, the latest jump in sentiment has been a rapid one, so the indicator could be to keep an eye on in the coming days, as a venture into the greed zone could very well be next. The current break into the neutral zone reflects the first time since late October that the Fear & Greed Index has surged into the region. A greedy sentiment hasn’t been witnessed since the first half of October, more than three months ago. Related Reading: Monero (XMR) Rockets 51% To New ATH, But Watch Out For FOMO In some other news, the new Bitcoin recovery run has triggered a large amount of liquidations, as revealed by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. “Across the top 500 cryptocurrencies, the latest move triggered the largest short-liquidation event since 10/10,” explained Glassnode. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $97,500, up more than 7% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is pushing above the $95,000 level as selling pressure across the market continues to ease, offering a renewed sense of short-term stability after weeks of choppy consolidation. Following a volatile end to last year, price action has gradually improved, with buyers regaining control and forcing Bitcoin back into a range that had previously acted as resistance. While skepticism remains high and many analysts continue to warn of a broader corrective phase, recent derivatives and positioning data suggest that market behavior may be shifting beneath the surface. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH SOPR Signals Early Capitulation, But Selling Pressure Remains Contained According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Positioning Index SMA-30d has climbed to 3.5, marking the first sustained breakout above the 3.0 level since October 6, 2025. That previous breakout occurred during the rally that ultimately carried BTC toward the $125,000 peak, making the current move particularly notable from a historical perspective. The positioning index reflects aggregated futures market dynamics, including open interest, funding behavior, and long-short activity, and is often used to identify regime changes in trader sentiment. This renewed strength in positioning does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, but it does indicate that futures traders are once again willing to take directional exposure after months of defensive positioning. As Bitcoin holds above $95K, the coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this move develops into a broader trend or remains a temporary relief rally. Futures Positioning Signals a Shift Toward a Bullish Regime According to Axel Adler Jr., the recent breakout of the Positioning Index SMA-30d above the 3.0 level marks an important local shift in Bitcoin’s futures market structure. After spending nearly three months oscillating within the 0 ± 2 range, this move signals that traders are transitioning from neutral or defensive positioning into a more directional stance. Adler notes that confirmation now depends on persistence rather than speed. The key continuation trigger is the SMA holding above the 2.0 level for at least one week, which would validate that the shift is not a short-lived reaction. This view is reinforced by developments in the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index. While sentiment briefly peaked at 93.15% when BTC traded near $95,061, it has since cooled to roughly 70%. Importantly, this pullback has occurred without a breakdown in price structure. The index remains well above the neutral 50% threshold and above its 30-day average near 62.9%, indicating that bullish conditions still dominate the futures market. Adler interprets the roughly 23-percentage-point decline in sentiment as a healthy release of short-term overheating rather than a trend reversal. Historically, such resets often strengthen trend durability. Risk emerges if sentiment falls below 50% alongside a price drop under $92,000. Conversely, holding sentiment above 60% during short consolidation phases would support further upside continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Near A Profit Flip: A Key Level Comes Into Focus Bitcoin Price Action Details Bitcoin price action on the daily chart shows a clear attempt to regain control after a prolonged consolidation phase. Following the sharp November sell-off that pushed BTC into the low $80K region, price has gradually formed a higher-low structure, signaling stabilization rather than continued capitulation. The recent push above $95,000 marks the highest daily close since mid-November and places Bitcoin back above its short-term moving average, a level that had capped upside throughout December. However, the broader trend remains mixed. The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward and sits above the current price, acting as near-term dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average continues to trend higher well below price, confirming that the broader market structure remains intact despite recent volatility. This positioning reflects a market transitioning from corrective pressure into a potential recovery phase, rather than a clean trend reversal. Related Reading: XRP Consolidates Above $2 As Volume Z-Score Signals A Quiet Market The recent advance toward $95K occurred without a significant volume spike, suggesting reduced selling pressure rather than aggressive new demand. This is consistent with a relief-driven move fueled by short covering and position rebalancing. For bulls, holding above the $93K–$95K range is critical to maintain momentum and build a base for continuation. Failure to consolidate above this zone would increase the risk of renewed range-bound trading or a pullback toward the $90K support area. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has pushed above the $95,000 level for the first time since mid-November, reigniting debate across the market. For some analysts, this move represents a constructive breakout that confirms underlying strength after weeks of consolidation. For others, the rally is viewed with caution, framed as a classic relief move occurring within a broader corrective or bearish structure. With sentiment split and volatility compressed, the market is once again searching for confirmation rather than direction alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH SOPR Signals Early Capitulation, But Selling Pressure Remains Contained Adding an important layer to this discussion, an analysis by Darkfost highlights a notable shift beneath the surface: OG Bitcoin activity has dropped sharply. OGs—holders whose coins have remained dormant for several years—have historically played a key role during major cycle transitions, often distributing aggressively near macro tops. During this cycle, their activity surged earlier, coinciding with strong institutional demand and elevated prices. However, recent data shows that this selling pressure has slowed significantly. This decline in OG spending suggests that long-dormant holders are no longer actively distributing into strength, reducing a major source of structural sell pressure. While this does not guarantee immediate upside continuation, it changes the risk profile of the current move. With fewer legacy holders selling, price action above $95K is now being shaped more by marginal demand and derivatives positioning than by long-term distribution, making the next phase especially critical to monitor. OG Selling Pressure Fades as Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet Darkfost’s analysis uses UTXO behavior to understand how long-term holders are acting beneath the surface. UTXOs, which track when and how previously unspent Bitcoin is moved, provide a reliable way to identify activity from OG holders—coins that have remained dormant for several years. When these coins move, it usually signals intentional distribution rather than short-term speculation. Earlier in this cycle, OG activity was unusually elevated. Long-held coins were spent at levels well above those seen in the previous cycle, coinciding with a favorable environment for distribution. Institutional inflows, spot ETFs, and even government-linked demand created deep liquidity conditions that allowed legacy holders to sell without destabilizing the price. That window appears to be closing. Recent data shows a clear shift. Spikes in OG spending during local price peaks have become smaller and less frequent. The rolling average of spent older outputs has fallen materially from prior highs, indicating that the heaviest phase of long-term distribution is likely behind us. This does not imply that OGs have turned aggressively bullish, but it does suggest reduced urgency to sell. From a market structure perspective, declining OG selling pressure removes a major overhead supply source. With fewer long-dormant coins entering circulation, price action becomes increasingly dependent on short-term demand dynamics and derivatives positioning. This transition often precedes either consolidation or trend continuation, making OG inactivity a quietly constructive signal rather than an outright bullish trigger. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Near A Profit Flip: A Key Level Comes Into Focus Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance After Short-Term Breakout Bitcoin has pushed back above the $95,000 level after weeks of consolidation, marking a notable short-term breakout. On this daily chart, price has reclaimed the descending short-term moving average and is now testing a former resistance zone that previously acted as support during September and October. This area around $95K–$96K is technically significant, as it coincides with prior range lows and a visible supply cluster. The rebound follows a sharp corrective phase in November, where BTC printed a local bottom near the mid-$80,000 region. Since then, price action has formed a series of higher lows, suggesting an improving short-term structure. Volume remains moderate, indicating that this move is not driven by aggressive speculation, but rather by steady spot demand and short covering. Related Reading: Trump-Powell Conflict Fuels Volatility While Retail Sells Bitcoin At A Loss – Details However, Bitcoin still trades below its longer-term moving averages, which continue to slope downward. This implies that, despite the recent strength, the broader trend has not yet fully flipped bullish. A sustained hold above $95,000 would take it into the $98,000–$100,000 zone. A level where stronger resistance and prior breakdown zones sit. Failure to consolidate above current levels could result in another retest of the $90,000–$92,000 support range. The chart reflects a transition phase: momentum is improving, but confirmation will depend on follow-through and acceptance above this critical resistance area. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com v

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $95,500. BTC is trading above $96,000 and might soon aim for a move to $100k in the near term. Bitcoin started a decent increase above $94,000 and $95,500. The price is trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $95,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $95,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Resistance Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $92,500 support and started a fresh increase. BTC was able to settle above $94,000 and $95,000. The bulls were able to push the price above $95,500. Finally, the price spiked above $97,000. A high was formed at $97,898, and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $97,898 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $96,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $95,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $97,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $97,800 level. The next resistance could be $98,000. A close above the $98,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $98,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $99,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $99,800 and $100,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $97,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $96,000 level. The first major support is near the $95,250 level and the trend line. The next support is now near the $94,000 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $97,898 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $93,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $92,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $96,000, followed by $95,250. Major Resistance Levels – $97,200 and $97,800.

Bitcoin’s latest recovery above $94,000 raises up the question of whether it is the next leg for the continuation of a bull cycle or the final rally before a deeper reset. However, an interesting technical outlook shared on TradingView by crypto analyst Xanrox suggests the bullish path many traders are watching could ultimately end lower than expected, even if price strength is strong in the near term. Elliott Wave Setup Leaves Room For One More Push Higher Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows the cryptocurrency has completed a five-impulse wave that goes as far back as early 2023. This impulse wave count ended with Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000 in October 2025 and the cryptocurrency is now playing out corrective waves ABC.  Related Reading: Next XRP Wave Shows Where Price Is Headed Next, But There’s A Catch Based on the Elliott Wave theory, Xanrox noted that Bitcoin may already have completed a sharp decline from a projected 2025 peak near $125,000 down to the low-$80,000 range, labeling that move as a corrective wave A. The price action is now viewed as being in a bullish counter-trend phase, commonly referred to as wave (B) or (X), which is known to retrace a portion of the prior decline before rolling over. In this scenario, Bitcoin could still advance to as high as the $100,000 to $103,000 range over the coming weeks or months and even encourage a brief rotation into altcoins during the advance. That upside, however, is corrective and not impulsive, and the next move is a larger move lower once the structure is complete. Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick. Source: TradingView Long-Term Structure Points To A Painful Reset Window Xanrox’s analysis places Bitcoin within a long-term linear structure stretching from 2017 into 2026, highlighting how previous market cycles ended with deep corrections after euphoric peaks. The analysis uses the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns, which erased more than three-quarters of Bitcoin’s value each time, as anchors for what could unfold next for the leading cryptocurrency.  Related Reading: Get Ready For An XRP Price Explosion Once This Happens; Analyst According to this framework, the next major corrective phase is projected to play out in 2026, when Bitcoin could fall into the sub-$60,000 region, with $57,000 as the most important area of interest where the correction might end. The $57,000 price correction target is based on the location of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement when projected from the recent 2025 peak and is going to be just above the 200-week moving average.  The projected move would still represent a correction of roughly 54% from the 2025 high if this actually turns out to be the cycle peak. However, it is important to note that the presence of Spot Bitcoin ETFs introduces a stabilizing force compared to earlier cycles in 2018 and 2022, and so any high correction might find a strong support level before falling as low as $57,000.    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price has shown strength over the past 48 hours and is now trading in the mid-$90,000s after days of consolidating around $90,000. Technical analyst Jackis presented a fair assessment of potential paths for Bitcoin’s next significant rise in the context of near-term consolidation and attempted breakouts above $95,000, outlining distinct scenarios for both bulls and bears. Both Outlooks Have A Case, But Price Has To Confirm Bitcoin is now back to trading above $95,000 after a 3.1% increase in the past 24 hours. Price action in the past 24 hours alone shows that the outlook might be bullish. However, as it stands, Bitcoin’s price action has reached a point where traders should let the chart tell them what’s next.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Is Not In At $126,000, According To The Business Cycle, Here’s Why According to a technical analysis from a crypto analyst known as Jackis on the social media platform X, arguments alone are not enough here because there are both good bullish & bearish arguments out there for Bitcoin. In his words, he has watched similar-looking price action resolve in opposite directions across different cycles.  The chart below shows how Bitcoin price action is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern on the 8-hour candlestick timeframe chart. However, examples show how this same formation led to an upward reversal for Bitcoin in the past and then also a bearish continuation for Ethereum in the past. Based on his read, he currently sees more reasons for downward continuation, and until the market proves otherwise, the active trend is bearish. Both bullish and bearish outlooks have a case, but price action has to confirm. Bullish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin Once price breaks out in either direction, the follow-through can be fast, which means being stubborn on the wrong side can be costly.  Related Reading: Why The $2.9 Billion Bitcoin Whale Buy Could Spell Doom For The Market On the bullish side, Jackis highlighted that a breakout toward $96,000 is the kind of move that would confirm a bullish continuation. He added that a push through $96,000 at this point could open the path to $107,000 or higher. On the other hand, Jackis’ bearish trigger is tied to the rising support line. Price action can look constructive right up until the trendline snaps, and that’s the point where downside continuation becomes the higher-probability route in this framework. If Bitcoin were to lose the lower trendline of the ascending trend, then it would likely drift back to the April 24 lows. The April lows refer to how Bitcoin rejected above $106,100 in January 2025 and entered into a multi-month correction that eventually bottomed at a low around $76,000.  This means that a clean breakdown could change the conversation away from range chop in the mid-$90,000s to a reset. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) breaks out of key resistance levels, an analyst suggests that the cryptocurrency is positioning itself for a move to higher levels and a retest of a crucial technical area in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Monero (XMR) Hits New $610 All-Time High – Veteran Trader Shares Silver-Like Setup Bitcoin Approaching Make-Or-Break Test On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to retest the $93,500 resistance level for the first time in a week. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between the $84,000 to $93,500 price range for three months and has failed to turn this level into support multiple times. Analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that the flagship crypto is near a “historic” test as it has begun to form “another technically decisive region” just above current price levels. The market watcher explained that BTC is approaching its dynamic Bull Market Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster, where the 50-week EMA and 21-week EMA are getting closer. This key cluster, currently located between the $96,000 and $97,500 levels, has historically been tested before a “meaningful crossover,” with the Bitcoin price overextending beyond the cluster. However, this has usually been followed by an unsuccessful confirmation of this region as support. “When that happens, the crossover itself often follows the bearish price event, rather than causing it, with the EMA cluster flipping into resistance from the underside and leading to downside continuation,” the analyst detailed. Notably, past cycles reveal that the 50-week and 21-week EMAs can move very close together, Rekt Capital wrote, emphasizing that they can even overlap for prolonged periods before a decisive crossover. Currently, Bitcoin has yet to retest and overextend beyond the two EMAs, but its historical performance suggests that it will likely occur. Moreover, BTC’s price is “positioning itself in a way that could allow for a springboard higher, potentially enabling a test of this cluster in the weeks ahead. The key question is timing.” BTC Price Breaks Out Of Key Resistances In his analysis, the market observer discussed BTC’s recent performance, which has seen a structural change despite the sideways price action. Last week, the cryptocurrency’s price closed above its multi-week downtrend, which has been serving as a major resistance point since late November. This marks “a small but notable technical milestone” as Bitcoin now holds above the November and December highs in the weekly timeframe, treating the previous resistance as support. In addition, the mid-zone of its local range, around the $90,500 level, is now “almost perfectly confluent with the former Downtrend, meaning the Downtrend that last week rejected price is beginning to act as layered support instead.” Therefore, if Bitcoin continues to hold the mid-range region, the price should be able to challenge higher levels and find a path toward $100,000. Rekt Capital added that, unlike previous retests, the most recent rejection from the crucial $93,500 resistance was significantly shallower and shorter, suggesting that it was getting weaker. Related Reading: Top Bullish Predictions That Put XRP Price At New All-Time Highs Above $3.8 Now, the flagship crypto has successfully retested the downtrend breakout area as support and momentarily reclaimed the $93,500 resistance, surging above the $94,000 area once again. Ultimately, BTC will need to hold this area and close the week above $93,500 to “kickstart a breakout from the Weekly Range as per previous green circles,” the analyst concluded. As of this writing, BTC trades at $94,334, a 2.6% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has been locked in a tight consolidation range since late November, frustrating traders and fueling growing speculation about a major move ahead. Volatility has compressed, price has stabilized near key psychological levels, and market participants are increasingly divided on what comes next. Some analysts argue that this prolonged consolidation is laying the groundwork for a renewed upside recovery, while a broader consensus warns that Bitcoin could still face another leg lower before a sustainable trend emerges. Related Reading: XRP Consolidates Above $2 As Volume Z-Score Signals A Quiet Market Adding to this uncertainty, top analyst Darkfost points to an important and potentially concerning on-chain development: the first signs of long-term holder (LTH) capitulation are beginning to surface. The last time Bitcoin traded at similar price levels was in April 2025, roughly nine months ago. Since then, a large portion of market participants accumulated BTC at higher prices and have continued to hold through the recent correction. Today, many of those investors are sitting on unrealized losses. As a reminder, Bitcoin held for more than six months is classified as long-term holder supply, typically associated with higher conviction and lower sensitivity to short-term price moves. When this cohort begins to show signs of stress, it often marks a critical phase in the market cycle. Whether this emerging LTH pressure becomes a brief shakeout or evolves into broader capitulation could play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next major move. Early Signs of Long-Term Holder Capitulation Emerge What we are currently observing on the Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a behavior that typically appears during bear market phases. LTH SOPR measures whether coins held for more than six months are being sold at a profit or a loss, offering insight into conviction among the most resilient cohort of Bitcoin investors. In recent days, LTH SOPR briefly dipped below the critical 1.0 level. This signals that some long-term holders—most likely the younger segment of this group—have begun to capitulate by selling at a loss. Historically, such moves reflect rising stress among holders who bought closer to cycle highs and are now facing prolonged drawdowns. For now, however, this behavior remains limited. The 30-day moving average of LTH SOPR still stands at a healthy 1.18, meaning long-term holders have realized an average profit of 18% over the past month. While this confirms that broad-based capitulation has not yet materialized, it is worth noting that this level is well below the annual average near 2.0, indicating a clear slowdown in realized profits. A deeper deterioration would be bearish in the short term, signaling expanding sell pressure. Conversely, declining realized profits may also suggest that traders are gradually exhausting selling pressure. For a bullish continuation to develop, LTH SOPR would need to stabilize and begin trending higher again, confirming renewed confidence among long-term holders. Related Reading: Trump-Powell Conflict Fuels Volatility While Retail Sells Bitcoin At A Loss – Details Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined consolidation range after the sharp correction from the October highs. On the weekly chart, price is holding just below the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone, an area that previously acted as support before the breakdown. This level now represents a key inflection point for market structure. Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin remains above its rising 200-day moving average, which continues to slope upward near the mid-$80,000 region. This suggests that the broader trend remains constructive, even as short-term momentum has weakened. The 100-day moving average has flattened, reflecting a loss of upside momentum, while the 50-day average is still attempting to stabilize after rolling over during the sell-off. Related Reading: Ethereum Long-Term Cost Basis Holds Firm: Structural Floor Forms Near $2.8K Price action over the past several weeks shows a series of higher lows, indicating that buyers are gradually stepping in and absorbing selling pressure. However, volume has declined during this consolidation, signaling a lack of strong conviction from either side of the market. This behavior is typical of compression phases that often precede larger directional moves. A sustained break and weekly close above $94,000 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a move toward the $100,000–$105,000 range. Conversely, failure to hold above the $86,000–$88,000 support zone would increase downside risk and shift focus toward deeper retracements. For now, Bitcoin remains in balance, building tension for its next decisive move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $92,500. BTC is trading above $95,000 and attempting a close for another increase to $100k. Bitcoin started a decent increase above $92,000 and $94,500. The price is trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $94,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Gains Over 4% Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $90,500 support and started a fresh increase. BTC was able to settle above $92,000 and $92,500. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls were able to push the price above $93,500. Finally, the price spiked above $96,000. A high was formed at $96,476, and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $96,476 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $94,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $96,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $96,500 level. The next resistance could be $96,800. A close above the $96,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $98,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $98,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $99,000 and $100,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $96,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $95,000 level. The first major support is near the $94,500 level. The next support is now near the $93,200 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $96,476 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $92,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $91,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $95,000, followed by $94,500. Major Resistance Levels – $96,000 and $96,800.

Bitcoin has decoupled from the global M2 supply for the first time. Here’s what could be the reason for it, according to the founder of Capriole Investments. Bitcoin Has Diverged From The Global M2 Supply Trend In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about how Bitcoin has decoupled from the global liquidity flows recently. Below is the chart cited by Edwards, which compares the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in BTC to that in the global M2 supply. As displayed in the graph, Bitcoin’s YoY change flatlined over 2025 while the total money supply of the world’s major economies witnessed growth, indicating BTC diverged from traditional liquidity flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline In the past, the cryptocurrency’s YoY percentage change has generally showcased a similar trajectory to the global M2 supply. “This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows,” noted the analyst. What’s the reason behind this new trend? According to Edwards, it’s the threat posed by quantum computing to the network. Quantum computers are hypothesized to have the capability to break the cryptocurrency’s cryptography, with wallets from the blockchain’s early days being especially vulnerable. It’s uncertain when quantum machines will find a breakthrough, but the Capriole founder believes BTC passed into a “Quantum Event Horizon” in 2025. “The timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin,” said Edwards. In theory, a party with a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could break into old dormant wallets and dump the coins on the market. This would not only directly impact BTC’s price but could also undermine broader trust in the cryptocurrency itself. “Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly,” explained the analyst. One X user countered that most investors don’t seem to agree with Edwards’ quantum timeline, suggesting that the market would be unlikely to decouple based on a view not widely shared. “If you listen to all in bitcoin maxis on X you would think that,” Edwards replied to the user. “If you talk to real capital allocators and Bitcoin OGs in the space 7+ years in private – they are all considering this risk.” Related Reading: Solana Price Jumps, But Network Adoption Remains Weak In some other news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued to face weak demand recently, as data from SoSoValue shows. From the above chart, it’s visible that last week saw $681 million exit from the US Bitcoin spot ETFs. The new week has started with inflows so far, but it only remains to be seen whether they will continue in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,100, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a notable surge, approaching its nearest resistance level at $94,000, a barrier that has thus far hindered the cryptocurrency’s return to significant milestones, including the coveted $100,000 mark. Despite this, experts remain optimistic about new all-time highs for Bitcoin within the year. Potential Bitcoin Return To $100,000 Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, commented on the recent price movements, suggesting that the uptick is more likely a reflexive response from investors who are rebalancing their portfolios after last year’s heavy sell-off, rather than an indication of a fundamental trend shift.  “The bounce in Bitcoin we’re seeing this week is most likely a reflexive move by investors rather than something indicative of a major shift in trend,” Puckrin explained. Related Reading: New Hope For Crypto: Senators Introduce Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act Currently, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum after rejecting the $94,700 resistance level. Puckrin warns that a failure to break through this barrier could lead to another decline in value. However, if BTC does breach this resistance, he believes a return to the $100,000 level may be achievable.  Looking further ahead, Puckrin anticipates another all-time high in 2026, although he advises caution regarding the extent of that potential rise. “In the longer term, I expect to see another all-time high this year, but it won’t be as dramatic as some are predicting, and the possibility of a reversal into bear territory remains very real,” he added. Key Resistance Level Contrasting this optimism, some analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin’s immediate prospects. Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of First Information, maintains a bearish outlook, arguing that the risk-reward ratio at current prices is unappealing.  Stanzione evaluates Bitcoin against gold rather than the dollar, asserting that Bitcoin has considerable ground to cover. “I was negative on Bitcoin throughout 2025, and I’m sticking with that view in 2026,” he noted.  He pointed out that while the market’s leading cryptocurrency experienced a decline of about 6% by the end of 2025, gold surged by 66%, resulting in a significant disparity in performance. Related Reading: Coinbase Mulls Exiting Support For Crypto Market Structure Bill Ahead Of January 15 Deadline Stanzione believes gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin this year, predicting that the digital asset will close the year at a lower price. “There are no compelling reasons to buy Bitcoin at the current $92,000 level,” he stated.  Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial price level for Bitcoin in the short term, stating on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that $94,555 is the “bullish trigger” for the cryptocurrency.  Should Bitcoin break through this level, Martinez indicated that the next target could be $105,291, representing a potential 12% increase. This move would significantly narrow the gap to the all-time high of over $126,000 reached last October. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has started the year on firmer footing, recovering from late-2025 weakness and pushing back toward the $92,000 level. Price action has improved, and short-term momentum has turned constructive, but conviction remains fragile. Despite the rebound, Bitcoin continues to trade within a broader consolidation range that has capped upside since late November. Related Reading: Trump-Powell Conflict Fuels Volatility While Retail Sells Bitcoin At A Loss – Details As a result, analysts remain divided. Some see the recent strength as the early phase of a trend reversal, while others warn that the market may need more time to absorb supply before any sustained breakout can develop. Adding nuance to this debate, a recent report from CryptoQuant highlights a critical inflection point tied to short-term holder behavior. According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s short-term holders—typically the most reactive cohort—are close to flipping back into profit. The key level sits around $92.2K. A decisive break above this threshold would place the average short-term holder back in positive territory, easing psychological pressure and reducing the incentive to sell into minor rallies. Short-Term Holders Near a Psychological Inflection Point The same CryptoQuant report emphasizes that the $92,000–$92,200 zone is more than a simple technical level—it represents a psychological threshold for short-term holders (STHs). A sustained move above this area would place the average STH back into profit, easing stress among recent buyers who have been underwater for weeks. When this cohort returns to profit, selling pressure typically diminishes, as fear-driven exits give way to a greater willingness to hold or even add exposure. Historically, this transition has mattered. Past market data shows that when Bitcoin price crosses above the short-term holder realized price—a configuration often described as a “golden cross” between spot price and STH cost basis—market structure tends to improve. In several prior cycles, such flips marked the start of renewed upside momentum, as short-term participants shifted from defensive behavior to supportive demand. Related Reading: XRP Consolidates Above $2 As Volume Z-Score Signals A Quiet Market That said, context remains important. A profit flip does not guarantee immediate continuation higher, but it does change incentives. Instead of selling into rallies to recover losses, short-term holders are more likely to buy dips or hold through volatility, reinforcing bid-side depth. In practical terms, reclaiming and holding above $92K would signal that recent supply has been absorbed and that marginal demand is strengthening. If confirmed with follow-through, this psychological reset could act as fuel for a broader trend extension. However, failure to maintain this level would risk resetting pressure on the same cohort, keeping Bitcoin locked in consolidation rather than trend mode. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Resistance as Volatility Builds Bitcoin price action on this chart reflects a market attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction from the October highs near $125,000. Following that decline, BTC found strong demand in the $85,000–$88,000 region, where buyers repeatedly defended price and formed a higher low structure. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a relatively tight range, gradually pushing back toward the $92,000 area. From a trend perspective, price is currently trading above the 200-day moving average (red), which continues to slope upward and provides a key layer of long-term support. This suggests that, despite recent weakness, the broader macro trend remains intact. However, BTC is still trading below the 100-day and 50-day moving averages (green and blue), both of which are flattening and acting as dynamic resistance. This configuration explains the hesitation around $92,000–$94,000, where multiple technical factors converge. Related Reading: Ethereum Long-Term Cost Basis Holds Firm: Structural Floor Forms Near $2.8K Volume has declined compared to the sell-off phase, signaling reduced conviction from both buyers and sellers. This typically characterizes consolidation phases rather than impulsive trends. The recent series of higher lows since December indicates improving short-term structure, but confirmation is still lacking. For bullish continuation, Bitcoin would need a decisive daily and weekly close above the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone, reclaiming the mid-term moving averages. Failure to do so could keep price range-bound or expose BTC to another test of support near $88,000. Overall, the chart points to compression and indecision, with a larger directional move likely once this range resolves. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com