Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate cut, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, losing its local range low for the first time in a week. Some analysts have warned that this week’s close is crucial for the flagship crypto’s short-term performance. Related Reading: Ethereum (ETH) Prepares For ‘Last Euphoric Run’ As Whales Go On $135M Buying Spree Bitcoin Price Eyes Crucial Weekly Close On Thursday, Bitcoin dropped below the recently reclaimed $110,000 area, hitting a one-week low of $106,700. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been trading within the $108,000-$120,000 price range since July, but has failed to reclaim the range highs after the early October correction. Amid this performance, Ted Pillows suggested that the market volatility was expected, as BTC has shown a similar price action since the start of Q3. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has dropped 6%-8% after the last three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, but it has also made a new all-time high (ATH) before the next one. According to the chart, BTC’s price reached its local bottom 5-9 days after the meeting, quickly recovering from the drop and rallying to new highs in the coming weeks. As price retests the $106,000 area, Ted predicted that a repeat of the same playbook could happen. However, he warned that Bitcoin must reclaim the $113,500 in the coming days to prevent a larger pullback. “A weekly close below that level will increase the likelihood of a bigger correction,” the analyst explained. Similarly, Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin must close the week above the $114,500 to turn this level back into support. He noted that after the recent performance, a volatile retest of this level would be “perfectly fine” as long price closes above this crucial level at the end of the week. Confirming the Range Low of ~$114k as support would confirm re-entry into the Range, kickstart consolidation within the Range again, and enable a move across it towards the Range High of ~$119000 (red) in an effort to breakout from it and challenge $120k+ once again. Is BTC’s End-Of-Year Rally Still On? Michaël van de Poppe affirmed that $112,000 is the next key area to break before a new ATH, as it has been a crucial resistance level in the daily timeframe for the past few weeks. Per the post, a breakout from this area could set the base for a retest of the $119,000-$120,000 zone. On the contrary, a rejection from this level could send the price toward the $103,000 mark or lower, he warned. “I do think we’ll see a new ATH in November,” the market watcher added.” Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that BTC is “just playing ping pong” between its key levels and will continue to move within its range until one of the boundaries is successfully broken. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Predicts Solana Staking ETF Will Be ‘Huge’ As First Day Volume Hits $56M The trader added that November is one of Bitcoin’s best months based on historical performance, which could suggest that a price rally could be near. Notably, 8 out of 12 Novembers have closed in green, with a median return of 10.82%, according to CoinGlass data. Moreover, he noted that the last two months of the year are when the three previous bull runs topped and the past two bear markets bottomed. “Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 4% bounce from the lows to retest a crucial resistance level, which could determine whether a breakout or a breakdown is next. Meanwhile, an analyst suggested that BTC’s final leg up and cycle peak could come in the coming weeks. Related Reading: No Ethereum Rally Until Q4? Analyst Eyes Choppy September Before New Highs Bitcoin Key Attempts Key Level Reclaim Following its recent drop, Bitcoin is now attempting to break out of its local range high and reclaim the $111,000 zone as support. As September started, the flagship crypto retested the $107,000 range low before bouncing 4% to the local upper boundary. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that BTC has been trading in a descending channel on the 4-hour chart for the past two weeks. The cryptocurrency retested the pattern’s upper boundary, around $110,700, breaking above this area on Tuesday morning. To the market watcher, Bitcoin needs to close above $110,700 for a meaningful rebound, as a confirmed breakout above this level could set the stage for a retest of $113,500. On the contrary, failing to reclaim this resistance will likely reinforce bearish momentum and deepen the correction, the analyst warned, adding that “the SuperTrend indicator also aligns with this zone, maintaining a bearish posture at $110,700.” Meanwhile, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems suggested that Bitcoin is attempting to replicate the same playbook of the recent significant pumps. According to the chart, the flagship crypto has entered a corrective period following a new all-time high (ATH), displaying a falling wedge pattern before breaking out again. Based on this, the $108,000 level is a key area for the bulls as it serves as a crucial bounce point. Holding this level would “confirm BTC’s strength on the higher timeframe, showcasing a formidable price action with resistance flipping and retesting.” To Sjuul, Bitcoin is at a “critical juncture to keep playing the same tune,” and failing to maintain it would increase the risks of a bigger correction to the $98,000 level, where the Weekly EMA50 sits. BTC To Peak In Coming Weeks? Rekt Capital gave a higher timeframe perspective for the flagship crypto, highlighting that BTC has shown mixed signals after failing to close the week above the $109,000 level. This level previously served as the final weekly resistance before new ATHs, which suggests it could be the first technical signal of a bearish confirmation. Nonetheless, he asserted that while the weekly timeframe is “showing early signs of weakness, the Monthly chart tells a different story.” Notably, Bitcoin has held its Macro Range of $107,200-$116,000. Additionally, monthly candles have produced long downside wicks throughout the cycle, with deep retests often occurring before trend continuation. This suggests that the broader market structure remains intact despite weekly pressure. As this week progresses, the cryptocurrency could see heightened volatility, tapping the $104,000 on a wick. He stated that “If the Weekly timeframe confirms rejection from $107k and progresses bearish confirmation, that could be the trigger for such a Monthly wick.” In this case, “then the goal for price would be to then resynchronize with the Monthly Range before the Monthly Close is in” to maintain the macro structure and set the stage for one last leg up. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Spikes As Whales Add 260K ETH In 24 Hours The analyst also noted that the previous bull market lasted about 152 weeks, while this one is already 145 weeks into it. This could signal that there are only around seven weeks left if the current bull market were to repeat its previous performance. “If Bitcoin is going to peak in its Bull Market in mid-September/mid-October 2025 as per historical Halving cycles… That’s either two weeks away or 1.5 months away,” the analyst concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price came within 5.7% of its peak today as the week begins with positive sentiment.
Any retrace in the price of Bitcoin over the next two weeks could be investors’ last chance to scoop up Bitcoin at “bargain-buying" prices, says pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital.