Global macro signals are flashing both warning and opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC). On one hand, major bank Standard Chartered PLC has flagged the potential for Bitcoin to dip below $100,000 in the near term. Related Reading: 16,000 Ancient Bitcoins Just Moved—And It’s Costing Whales Billions On the other hand, significant growth in global M2 money supply strengthens the backdrop for a longer-term upside. Short-Term Correction Predicted as Trade & Liquidity Risks Mount According to head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin could briefly fall under the $100,000 mark amid intensifying global risks, particularly the escalating U.S.–China trade tensions. BTC's price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Although he deems the drop as temporary, Kendrick frames it as a “buying opportunity,” asserting this may be “the last time Bitcoin is EVER below” $100,000. He further points to shifts in capital flows, notably from gold into Bitcoin, as signs of rotation and deeper structural appeal. Technical indicators such as the 50-week moving average are cited as meaningful support zones, adding credence to his view that the correction may be short-lived. Bullish Macro Backdrop: M2 Growth & Institutional Flows Intact Despite the caution in the short run, the macro landscape offers supportive themes. Analysts note that global M2 money supply growth accounts for a significant portion of Bitcoin’s historical price variance, highlighting the asset’s evolving role beyond speculative crypto. As central banks continue to inject liquidity, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader money-supply trends reinforces its potential as a hedge or portfolio diversifier rather than purely a speculative vehicle. Furthermore, institutional interest and on-chain activity remain elevated, underscoring that this pull-back could be a healthy mid-cycle reset rather than a structural reversal. What This Means for Bitcoin (BTC) Investors In practical terms, investors should brace for potential near-term downside around or below $100,000 while keeping an eye on key support levels and macro catalysts. Kendrick maintains his bullish target of $200,000 by year-end and even $500,000 by 2028, suggesting that the current dip could represent a long-term entry point. Related Reading: Last-Ever Bitcoin Dip Below $100,000 Looms This Week, Standard Chartered Warns At the same time, the market remains exposed to trade-war developments, Fed policy surprises, and liquidity shocks, factors that could trigger more substantial movement. A dip below $100K may feel ominous, but for some strategists, it could be the last major shopping window before the next leg higher. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD on Tradingview
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding a tight range around $121,000–$123,000 after tapping a fresh all-time high near $126,000 earlier this week. Under the surface, demand remains robust as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged an eighth straight day of net inflows, with one session alone adding $441 million. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Might Never Drop Below $100,000 Again Over the past week, cumulative ETF net flows have climbed by billions, pushing total Bitcoin ETF assets toward $160 billion. This steady pipeline of capital, now a fixture of pension funds, RIAs, and asset managers, continues to soak up more BTC than miners create, tightening free float and muting deeper pullbacks. The setup reinforces Bitcoin’s evolving role as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge, especially as the U.S. dollar wobbles and macro uncertainty lingers. Technical Levels Point Bitcoin (BTC) to $117K Support, $125K–$126K Ceiling After the spike to new highs, BTC is digesting gains in a sideways band. $125,000–$126,000 remains the near-term ceiling; a decisive daily close above that zone would likely unlock momentum toward $128,000–$130,000 and extend price discovery. On the downside, $117,000 is developing as the first key support, aligning with a heavy cost-basis cluster and prior breakout structure. A deeper fade could probe $114,000 near the 50-day moving average, where trend buyers may re-engage. Momentum indicators are neutral-to-constructive (RSI mid-zone, MACD flattening), consistent with healthy consolidation above rising MAs. Traders are watching for: Spot-led strength over derivatives (cleaner advances). ETF inflows staying positive (supports dips). Range break above $126,000 on expanding volume (bullish confirmation). BTC's price records losses on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Scarcity Meets Institutional Liquidity Bitcoin’s post-halving issuance of 450 BTC/day collides with institutional demand that’s arriving “on schedule” via ETFs, creating a structural supply deficit. Year to date, institutional accumulation has outpaced new supply many times over, a dynamic that historically precedes trend extensions. Add in the dollar-debasement narrative, stubborn inflation, rising debt, and policy ambiguity, and credibly scarce assets like BTC and gold remain in favor. Related Reading: $200 Million Rescue Plan: TRUMP Meme Coin Fights For Survival With net inflows recurring and macro tailwinds intact, a range break toward $130,000 looks increasingly plausible in Q4, provided $117,000 holds on dips and $125,000–$126,000 gives way on a high-volume push. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
In his latest video analysis titled “BITCOIN’S One Indicator Signaling LAST Major Dip,” Dan Gambardello, a noted crypto analyst with 370,000 subscribers on YouTube, delves into the latest price action of Bitcoin to forecast what could potentially be the final major dip. After dropping as low as $60,000 on Wednesday, the fear of another deeper price crash has grabbed the Bitcoin market. Why This Could Be The Final Leg Down For Bitcoin Gambardello emphasizes the significance of the daily and six-hour charts. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently testing the 50-day moving average, a level that often serves as a litmus test for short-term market sentiment. However, the analyst’s main focus is on the six-hour chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator used to measure the speed and change of price movements, which has hit oversold levels. According to Gambardello, the RSI reaching oversold territory is traditionally viewed as a bullish signal, potentially indicating an approaching end to the current price dip. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Skyrocket To $118,000 By Year-End: Here’s Why “The bottom is actually, I think, close. There could be some type of capitulation in the very short term, but I think there could be a very strong bounce after that happens,” Gambardello noted, suggesting that despite the immediate market turmoil following the Israel-Iran conflict news, the fundamentals point towards an eventual robust recovery. Via X, Gambardello added, “Nothing like a 6 hour oversold RSI at the beginning of bull season. Also great during bull season.” This assertion is grounded in his analysis of past market behaviors during similar conditions, reinforcing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Drawing parallels to historical data, Gambardello highlights the behavioral trends of Bitcoin in previous Octobers, noting a pattern of initial declines followed by strong recoveries by the end of the month. “October will close green. It’s always [like this] with the dip. People are just freaking out. I guess that’s it, but this gives us a little time. We’re getting all these red candles going into October, give us another week, maybe even two and we could get a pump, a breakout to the upside to end October,” Gambardello claims. Related Reading: Will Israel-Iran Conflict Push Bitcoin Further Down? Analysts Discuss Further deepening the analysis, Gambardello discusses the potential scenarios around Bitcoin’s lower trend line, a recurrent support level over the past six months. He speculates that if Bitcoin approaches this trend line again, it could effectively serve as a robust support level, potentially marking the last significant downturn before a sustained upward trend. Notably, one final touch of the trendline could bring down the BTC price as low as $50,000. However, Gambardello thinks that this is a less likely scenario as the 6-hour RSI has already hit oversold territory while BTC is currently bouncing off the 50-day moving average. Moreover, Gambardello refers to Bitcoin’s performance in past halving years, which are typically followed by bull markets, as seen in 2016 and 2020. Gambardello suggests that the current year could follow a similar trajectory. “This is a Halving year. We’ve seen what’s happened in Halving years in 2020 and 2016 in October. Is it going to repeat?” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $60,899. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com