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A crypto analyst has laid out a bold Bitcoin price forecast for the next three years, predicting an ultimate target above $200,000 by 2028. In the analysis, he outlines several key catalysts expected to drive BTC toward these projected milestones each year. These catalysts include a range of driving forces such as macroeconomic shifts, institutional accumulation, and even an anticipated AI-driven economic boom.  Bitcoin Price Forecast For 2026 And 2027 DANNY, a crypto analyst, has shared his Bitcoin price outlook from 2026 to 2028, outlining a bullish roadmap to a price peak above $280,000. However, before that peak materializes, he projects a significantly more bearish near-term picture for Bitcoin in 2026.  Contrary to the widespread speculation that Bitcoin may have entered a new bull trend and is on its way to new all-time highs, DANNY predicts that BTC’s price could still crash meaningfully from current levels. He expects Bitcoin to drop down to $52,000, representing a more than 35% decline from its current price above $80,500. This figure would also push BTC well below its post-ATH support floor of $60,000, the lowest level it has traded at since rising above $126,000 in October 2025.  Related Reading: Bollinger Bands Creator Has Just Gone All In On Bitcoin, Is $100,000 Next? Notably, DANNY has outlined several macroeconomic catalysts he believes will drive this projected correction. First, he points to the S&P 500 declining toward the 5,800 level, which could weigh on risk sentiment broadly and likely drag crypto markets lower alongside equities. He also believes oil prices will remain elevated, staying above $110 a barrel for at least two quarters before any meaningful retreat. Furthermore, DANNY predicts that the first G7 nation could officially enter a major technical recession during this period, a development that could also fuel risk-off sentiment and widespread selling pressure in the crypto and traditional markets. Lastly, for 2026, the analyst projects that a Federal Reserve Chair transition could trigger the most volatile quarter in the crypto and financial sectors in a decade. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to step down after serving two four-year terms, with Kevin Warsh succeeding the position, nominated by US President Donald Trump.  Moving on to his 2027 forecast, DANNY did not project any specific price target for the year. Instead, he outlined a series of macroeconomic shifts he believes will quietly lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s potential surge above $280,000. Firstly, he predicts that a Fed pivot, with three rate cuts in 12 months, could happen. Additionally, he expects Bitcoin to reach a true market bottom in Q1 2027 and then double its price by Q4.  On the currency front, DANNY projects that the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency will become a mainstream media talking point in 2027. He also projects that real estate will crash in at least two major US cities. Finally, he said that people who bought BTC during his projected 2026 crash will go completely silent on social media, suggesting quiet accumulation.   Bitcoin’s Bullish Roadmap Above $280,000 In 2028 According to DANNY, 2028 is set to become Bitcoin’s most historic year yet. He projects an explosive price surge above $280,000, representing an increase of more than 120% from BTC’s current ATH above $126,000. By this year, the analyst expects a few key things to happen. He predicts that the S&P 500 will begin rallying explosively, reaching a high of 9,500.  Related Reading: If The Bitcoin Price Crosses $400,000, Will The Solana Price Reach $1,500? The analyst also projects that the Fed balance sheet could hit $12 trillion, suggesting a return to large-scale quantitative easing and a fresh flood of liquidity into the market. At the same time, he anticipates a major AI boom that may begin to show up in actual GDP numbers. Finally, he predicts that the investors who bought BTC in 2026 and went silent in 2027 will become the new 2017 Bitcoin legends.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A chart shared on May 7, 2026, by analyst @CryptoTice highlights a technical formation that mirrors the setup seen ahead of Bitcoin’s surge from roughly $17,000 to $69,000. According to the analysis, the same structural signals have appeared again on the long-term chart, raising expectations that the market could be preparing for another major rally. Bitcoin Rally Structure: ATH Break Then Retest The 2020 market cycle began when Bitcoin finally moved above its previous ATH after spending a long period trading sideways in an accumulation phase. However, the move did not immediately turn into a sustained rally. Instead, Bitcoin paused and began trading within a horizontal range close to the breakout level, forming a consolidation zone where significant trading activity took place. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts When The XRP Price Will Rally To $12 The chart shared by analyst CryptoTice shows that Bitcoin is forming a very similar structure in the current cycle. Just as in the earlier period, Bitcoin has already pushed beyond a previous ATH before settling into a comparable horizontal range. In both cycles, the breakout was followed by a period when the price slowed, and Bitcoin traded around the former resistance area. Instead of breaking down further, Bitcoin found support there and began stabilizing. This movement confirmed that the level that once acted as resistance had now turned into support, resulting in a retest of the former all-time high zone. The current chart indicates that the same retest pattern may be developing again. After reaching a new peak, Bitcoin has started moving back toward the breakout area once more. According to the analyst, this pullback represents the current retest phase of the cycle, closely matching the stage that appeared just before Bitcoin’s previous 400% rally. Bitcoin Rally Comparison: From Retest To Expansion After the retest held during the previous cycle, Bitcoin began moving upward again. Momentum gradually built until the market entered a strong expansion phase, eventually pushing Bitcoin from about $17,000 to $69,000. The chart indicates the current market may be approaching the same stage. In the earlier cycle, the rally began after Bitcoin successfully held the retest level. The present structure appears similar, with the green band on the chart marking the key support area analysts are monitoring to see if the pattern remains intact. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Top $320,000 After ‘Cleanest Signal’ Emerged Current market data provides additional context. Bitcoin is trading near $80,667, with a market capitalization of about $1.61 trillion and a circulating supply close to 20 million BTC. Although the market is significantly larger than it was during the previous cycle, the long-term price structure still resembles the earlier formation. The analyst’s chart also includes a projected path reflecting the same sequence seen before: a breakout above the previous high, a retest of that level, and then a sustained rally. Overall, the chart suggests Bitcoin may be repeating the structure that previously led to a 400% rally, with the ongoing retest potentially serving as the launch point for the next major leg up. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, putting a historically bullish technical signal back in focus. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, who posts as CarpeNoctom, shared a chart on X tracking BTC’s forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015. “BTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,” CarpeNoctom wrote, alongside a TradingView chart showing the latest breakout dated May 6, 2026. What This Means For Bitcoin Price The historical table attached to the chart shows a notably positive skew across completed signals. After prior daily Kumo breakouts, Bitcoin was higher one week later in 22 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 6.21% and a median gain of 5.08%. One month out, BTC was positive in 20 of 26 cases, with an average return of 14.05% and a median of 12.00%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Bag Profit: 3,400 BTC Flow Out Of Reserves Since April The signal’s stronger historical profile appears over longer windows. Three months after breakout, Bitcoin was higher in 18 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 39.48% and a median of 26.37%. Six months later, BTC was positive in 22 of 26 cases, with an average return of 74.36% and a median of 46.04%. The one-year data is even more striking: across completed samples, Bitcoin was higher in 22 of 25 cases, with an average gain of 186.01% and a median gain of 129.46%. The largest one-year forward returns came during major bull-market phases. Breakouts on Sept. 4, 2016 and Oct. 7, 2016 preceded one-year gains of 615.08% and 617.09%, respectively. The April 1, 2017 signal was followed by a 525.35% one-year advance, while the April 23, 2020 breakout led to a 581.82% one-year gain. Another October 2020 breakout produced a 237.35% three-month move, a 430.84% six-month move, and a 393.65% one-year return. The chart also shows that the signal has not been uniformly reliable. Breakouts during weaker or late-cycle conditions produced negative forward returns in several cases. The Aug. 13, 2021 breakout was followed by a 48.89% one-year decline, while the Oct. 1, 2021 signal preceded a 59.90% one-year drop. More recently, the April 22, 2025 breakout showed positive returns over one week, one month, three months, and six months, but was down 16.31% after one year. Related Reading: This 1 Chart Explains Why Bitcoin Is Winning And Ethereum Is Losing Right Now The most recent completed signal before the May 2026 breakout, dated Oct. 1, 2025, also remains a cautionary data point. Bitcoin rose 3.98% after one week, but fell 7.60% after one month, 25.46% after three months, and 43.74% after six months. Its one-year return is not yet available in the table. For traders, the chart frames the Kumo breakout less as a standalone prediction and more as a historically asymmetric trend signal. The median returns suggest the pattern has often appeared near meaningful upside continuation, but the failed signals cluster around periods where broader market structure deteriorated after the breakout. At press time, BTC traded at $80,735. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is seeing an explosive rise in Open Interest, with derivatives activity now surpassing peak session levels recorded during the 2025 all-time high. This explosive growth reflects rising trader participation and increased leverage that is often seen during periods of heightened anticipation for major price moves. As positions rise across futures and perpetual markets, the spike in open interest points to a market gearing up for volatility. Can Bitcoin Sustain Momentum With Leverage Rising This Fast? Bitcoin is experiencing its strongest Open Interest expansion of 2026, with derivatives actively now surpassing even 2025’s all-time highs. A verified CryptoQuant author, known as Darkfost on X, has noted that the BTC market remains heavily driven by futures. Data shows that BTC’s recent bullish momentum has been driven largely by a steady return of investors to the derivatives markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock: 100,000 BTC Vanish From Exchanges In Under 90 Days Despite funding rates remaining broadly negative for weeks, open interest has recorded its strongest increase since the beginning of 2026. What makes the move particularly notable is that the current increase in open interest is already larger than the expansion seen during BTC’s previous ATH formation. Major platforms like Binance continue to dominate the majority of capital in the segment, reportedly accounting for approximately 34% of total market share, with a monthly average surging to around $2.5 billion on May 5. Meanwhile, a similar trend is also visible across other exchanges, such as Gate.io, which has a record of $1.75 billion, and Bybit, with a record of $1.15 billion. According to Darkfost, comparing the more defensive market conditions seen earlier in the year, the latest data shows optimism is gradually returning to the market, encouraging traders to increase their risk exposure. The growing dependence on leverage also introduces fragility into the market structure. Thus, leveraged positions are rarely built to last longer, and their liquidation could significantly amplify volatility and the risks associated with the market. Why Holding Above Current Levels Is Critical For Bitcoin Bulls The Bitcoin price is currently in a critical retest phase after successfully breaking above the previous highs earlier this week. A crypto trader known as Max Trades on X noted that this level is acting as a key support zone, and holding above it is essential for buyers to sustain momentum and push the broader uptrend price higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Need One More Signal To Confirm Market Bottom – Details As long as BTC maintains support above the reclaimed range, the likelihood of a liquidity sweep toward the $82,800 highs will continue to increase. However, a breakdown back below the retest zone would weaken the bullish structure and likely shift market focus toward the next major liquidity area between the $75,000 and $76,000 zone. This region remains one of the most significant liquidity downside targets if support fails. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The price of Bitcoin has been relatively stable since the start of April, showing strong efforts to reclaim former highs. In its latest recovery attempt, the premier cryptocurrency finally returned above $80,000 for the first time since early February. Unsurprisingly, a relevant group of network participants, known as Bitcoin miners, appears to be taking advantage of the steady rise in BTC’s value over the past few weeks. Interestingly, a continuation of this profit-taking trend could pose an obstacle to the market leader’s recovery. Miners’ Profit-Taking Could Halt BTC’s Recovery In a May 8th post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared that Bitcoin miners’ behavior has shifted in recent weeks. The latest on-chain data shows that this group of network participants has been booking profits, as the price of BTC steadily climbed to a local high. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Top $320,000 After ‘Cleanest Signal’ Emerged Highlighting changes in the Miner Reserves metric, which measures the total Bitcoin held in miner-affiliated addresses, Martinez revealed that about 3,400 BTC have been sent from addresses associated with network validators since April 7. Interestingly, this period has coincided with the coin’s price rising from $72,000 to around $82,790, further supporting the profit-taking hypothesis. The analyst wrote on X: Back then, Bitcoin was trading near $72,000. Through the recent climb toward yesterday’s peak of $82,790, which represents a 15% price increase, miners have been steadily booking profits. On-chain data shows that miners have offloaded approximately 3,400 $BTC during this run, taking advantage of the recent price expansion to cover operational costs or lock in gains at multi-month highs. Typically, falling Miner Reserves indicate that miners are distributing their coin to take profit, often to cover costs. As seen with several firms pivoting toward AI data centers, the profitability of the Bitcoin mining industry has been under significant pressure over the past few years.  More pertinently, the latest profit-taking and selling pressure can pose a threat to the ongoing recovery in Bitcoin’s price. The flagship cryptocurrency, which appears to have slowed down over the past day, would need uninterrupted bullish momentum to continue its current upside rally. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $80,287, reflecting a mere 0.8% leap in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the market leader’s value has risen about 3% over the past seven days. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees Sharp Decline In High-Leverage Long Positions — See What Happens Next Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s climb back above $82,000 has led to bullish conviction among investors. However, an interesting technical analysis suggests that the rally may still be part of a corrective structure, not the start of a clean impulsive breakout. That difference is important, because the analysis shows that Bitcoin is now approaching a resistance band that could decide whether the rebound continues or turns into another trap for late buyers. Bitcoin Heads Into Major Resistance Zone The BTC price climbed back above $80,000 this week, with the move supported by strong inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, crypto analyst Tara is not convinced this bullish move tells the full story. Related Reading: What The Aggressive Profit-Taking By Bitcoin Investors Means For The Price Tara’s outlook is built around Bitcoin’s reaction to the macro 0.382 retracement level. According to the analyst, the Bitcoin price broke above this level without first establishing stronger support below it. That has created a setup where the price action can still push higher, but the move may be vulnerable because the foundation below the rally is not as strong as bulls would want. Therefore, Bitcoin’s failure to establish solid support after breaking above a key macro Fibonacci level has left the asset exposed, now pressing into a major resistance zone spanning between $85,200 and $93,000. The short-term structure has clearly improved from the early February lows around $60,000, but Tara’s chart points to several overhead levels that now matter. The first major red resistance line is around $85,288, which corresponds with the 0.382 retracement on the projected structure. Above that, the 0.5 retracement level near $93,099 becomes the bigger test. Based on the analyst’s count, the current rally should be a counter Wave B move within a larger corrective ABC trend. The analyst described Wave B as one of the most deceptive phases of a market cycle because it can make traders believe the correction is already over. However, the range between $85,200 and $93,000 represents the region where the Wave B rally could start to lose strength. What Comes Next? The Crash Risk Now that the Bitcoin price is approaching resistance, the outlook is what to expect based on what could happen if it is rejected at that zone. The next phase can turn lower and punish buyers who entered too late. Related Reading: Mapping The Bitcoin Price Crash To $63,000: Why BTC Must Reclaim This Level The chart sketches this exact possibility with two projected downward paths from the upper resistance region. One begins around $85,000, and the other begins closer to the $93,000 level. Both paths suggest that a rejection from the resistance band could bring the Bitcoin price below $60,000. A sustained break above $85,200 would bring the $93,000 region into action. A clean move above $93,000 would then weaken the bearish corrective setup. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,742, down by 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto analyst has identified a multi-year Cup and Handle pattern on the Bitcoin (BTC) chart that he says has gone largely unnoticed by the broader market, despite its significance. The analyst believes this single formation signals a major bull trend ahead for Bitcoin, projecting a minimum price target of $220,000 once the cryptocurrency begins its parabolic move. Bitcoin’s Roadmap To A $220,000 Price Target Market analyst Crypto Tice has announced that Bitcoin has completed a Cup and Handle pattern that had been forming for years. In an X  post, the expert clearly outlined the formation on a chart, displaying a rounded U-shaped curve that marks the Cup portion of the pattern. This is followed by a handle positioned just above it, defined by upper and lower trendlines that sit parallel to each other.  Related Reading: Ripple’s $12.5 Trillion Claim: How Does XRP Fit Into 13,000 Banks? The emergence of a Cup and Handle pattern is often seen as a bullish indicator, as it signals that a cryptocurrency may be getting ready to break above resistance and extend its uptrend. Notably, Crypto Tice revealed that Bitcoin has already broken above a resistance zone of its Cup and Handle pattern, reinforcing his bullish stance. The analyst identified this key resistance between $62,000 and $74,000, noting that Bitcoin has also cleanly retested this area after its recent surge above $80,000. According to Crypto Tice, this successful retest has confirmed the overall structure, setting the stage for a potential continuation to the upside.   Given the strength of these formations, Crypto Tice made clear that Cup and Handle patterns do not signal modest moves like a 20% rally. Rather, they have historically preceded gains in the hundreds of percent, suggesting that a massive price surge could be on the horizon for Bitcoin.  The analyst predicts that Bitcoin’s next launch phase points toward a minimum upper price target of $220,000. This means he expects the cryptocurrency to rally even higher if its bullish momentum persists after it hits the initially projected high. From its current price above $80,000, this would represent a potential gain of more than 171% for Bitcoin.   Analyst Maps Out Bitcoin’s Potential Rally To $500,000 In a separate analysis, Crypto Tice shared a longer-term outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a massive price surge to $500,000. He outlined a clear roadmap showing how the BTC price could reach this ambitious target.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered Its ‘Most Dangerous Quarter,’ And This Expert Is Warning Investors The analyst pointed to an ascending channel on the Bitcoin chart, defined by two parallel straight lines. The channel shows that Bitcoin previously experienced a parabolic rally after completing three distinct moves, which Crypto Tice identified as a “first touch” of a support level, “a midrange rally,” and a “rejection back to support.” Now, the analyst believes that Bitcoin has completed the same three moves within the current channel, reinforcing his bullish stance. He added that Bitcoin is also currently sitting at the second support touch, likely preparing to launch its next bull trend, with a potential price target of $500,000 in sight.    Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Strategy—formerly known as MicroStrategy—could meaningfully accelerate its Bitcoin-buying pace this year, according to analysts at JPMorgan.  The firm, led by well-known Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, is already one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies, and JPMorgan believes its next move may be a larger, faster round of acquisitions. Strategy Could Outpace Past Bitcoin Buying Strategy currently holds more than 818,000 Bitcoin, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. Purchases have been active throughout 2026: the company reportedly added over 145,000 BTC in just five months, which is estimated at roughly $11 billion.  JPMorgan analysts, however, said that amount could rise substantially. Under their view, Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases this year could reach $30 billion over the course of the year. At today’s implied annualized pace, that would put 2026 purchases far above the roughly $22 billion acquired across 2024 and 2025 combined. Related Reading: VanEck Forecast: Bitcoin Could Climb To $1,000,000 By 2031, Research Head Says JPMorgan pointed to a change in momentum in April, saying Strategy “appears to have re-accelerated its bitcoin purchases.” The analysts tied the behavior to what they described as an increasingly opportunistic buying pattern. The optimism around Strategy’s plan also showed up in analyst price targets. On Thursday, TD Cowen raised its target price for the company’s stock, MSTR, from $385 to $395.  As of the time of writing, MSTR closed at $179, translating to an 18% gain since the beginning of the year. If TD Cowen’s forecast were to play out, the implied move would represent about a 120% jump from current levels. Net Loss Vs. Big Forecast Analysts also highlighted the financing approach by Strategy behind the acquisitions. They say the firm’s increased use of STRC (variable-rate perpetual preferred stock) to fund Bitcoin purchases could improve capital efficiency, making it more attractive relative to prevailing market pricing. Still, the company’s latest financial picture includes major losses. Strategy reported a net loss of $12.54 billion for the quarter, driven largely by an unrealized decline in Bitcoin fair value of $14.46 billion. Related Reading: This New Move Just Opened XRP To 44 Million New Users Looking ahead, the base case and scenarios for Strategy reflect a bullish outlook. The firm’s base case is that Bitcoin could reach approximately $140,000 by the end of 2026, with an upside scenario of about $175,000.  Separately, Joseph Vafi at Canaccord Genuity reiterated a Buy rating on May 7, lifting his MSTR price target from $185 to $224. Canaccord noted that since Bitcoin has rebounded—moving up from its roughly $62,000 low to more than $80,000—Strategy has continued to “weather another perceived storm. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as market data reveals a massive long liquidation imbalance, with an estimated $15 billion in leveraged positions sitting below the current price. This concentration of downside liquidity creates a high-risk environment where even a modest drop could trigger cascading liquidations. How Bitcoin’s Liquidity Structure Suggests Volatility Ahead Bitcoin is developing one of the most extreme liquidation imbalances, as long liquidations currently outweigh short liquidations. A crypto trader known as Max Trades on X highlighted that the current liquidation data showed a massive concentration of long positions sitting below the market, with an estimated $15 billion in long liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $82K, But Metrics Don’t Smile: Network Activity Down, Spot Demand Negative—What’s Next? Meanwhile, only around $3 billion in short liquidations remains above current price levels. This creates a striking 5:1 imbalance, suggesting the market is heavily skewed toward downside liquidity. Despite this setup, BTC has continued grinding higher, with upward momentum largely driven by new short positions entering the market. However, if shorts stop providing fuel for the move and market makers turn their focus toward the dense liquidity below the price, the market may become vulnerable to a sharp liquidation cascade. Why Bitcoin’s Current Rally May Be Vulnerable To A Pullback Bitcoin continues to show strength, but several internal market signals suggest the current rally may be losing momentum in the short term. Analyst Kaz has stated that BTC is currently trading within a relatively tight range around the $81,500 level, while trading volume has started to fade. Related Reading: Here’s What Triggered The Bitcoin Price Decline Before The Recent Bounce At the same time, Open Interest (OI) remains stable and flat, indicating that large new leveraged positions are not entering the market. The perpetual futures CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is still climbing, showing that buyers remain active, but the pace of that momentum has slowed noticeably. Spot CVD is also trending higher, suggesting genuine spot demand is still supporting the move, but recent candles indicate that the strength has started to weaken. Meanwhile, shorts continue to get liquidated periodically, helping sustain the BTC upward grind, while the squeeze is becoming smaller. Despite these warning signs, the broader internals still favor the bulls for now. When price grinds higher on fading volume, the CVDs show slow momentum, and open interest is flat. Kaz noted that the move is weakening and is due for a pullback, and making a decision based on this move is not optimal. The focus now shifts to monitoring changes in open interest and spot CVD for clearer direction. With midweek volatility (Wednesday) in play, BTC can still turn bearish. If BTC price pushes higher before the New York Open (NYO), without meaningful support from open interest and spot demand, a dump during the NYO is likely. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong bullish structure, with price action steadily grinding higher across multiple timeframes. While bulls remain in control for now, the growing divergence between price and volume could signal slowing momentum and increase the risk of a pullback if buying pressure fails to return.  A Hold Above Key Support At $74,937 As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above the critical floor of $74,937, the current upward momentum remains intact. Market analyst Kamile Uray notes that the primary obstacle for bulls during this ascent is the $98,000 resistance level. Establishing a daily close above this threshold would clear the path for the asset to test the next major supply zone located between $107,000 and $109,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tests Crucial $80,000 Resistance: One Move Could Change Everything The $107,000–$109,000 range is expected to serve as a formidable barrier for price action. Should Bitcoin struggle to gain further traction and fail to sustain a breakthrough above $126,199, the market may face a significant rejection. Such a failure at these elevated levels would likely trigger a pullback as traders take profits and momentum stalls. In the event of a retracement, the $68,000–$71,000 region could provide the necessary liquidity to stabilize the price.  However, if the selling pressure intensifies, the $60,000–$62,433 range will become a vital support corridor. A decisive daily close below the psychological $60,000 mark would be a bearish signal, suggesting that the decline is deepening, leading to a significant, long-term market correction. Bitcoin Climbs Higher Despite Declining Volume In a recent update, JDK Analysis noted that Bitcoin continues to grind higher, but trading volume has been steadily declining during the move. Despite the drop in volume, lower timeframes still indicate a very strong structural uptrend, with no obvious signs of weakness or breakdowns at present. As a result, there is currently no clear short-term setup worth acting on, as buyers continue to maintain control of the market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Gains Fade After Strong Rally Push Sparks Profit-Taking Price has also front-ran the next major resistance zone, meaning it moved aggressively before properly testing that level. If Bitcoin revisits the area, particularly around the all-time high anchored VWAP (aVWAP), attention will shift toward the possibility of an SFP (swing failure pattern) forming at the current highs, which could provide a potential short trigger. For bullish setups, the $73,000–$74,000 region remains the next key area of interest for possible long opportunities. Rather than chasing prices higher at current levels, the preference is to wait for a deeper pullback into a cleaner support zone before considering new positions. With market conditions becoming increasingly extended, protecting capital remains the top priority, while profit opportunities come second. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On Wednesday, Bitcoin reached its highest level since January, crossing above the $82,000 threshold. However, one analyst has warned that the latest upswing may not be driven by genuine demand.  Instead, he describes it as a so-called “speculative trap” and points to signals suggesting there may be little underlying momentum before the market potentially retraces sharply. $83,000 Condition For Bitcoin In a post on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst OxPepesso argued that BTC is moving in a way that looks similar to the “S&P 500 AI bubble,” implying that Bitcoin is largely tracking broader stock-market sentiment rather than showing distinct, organic crypto drivers. OxPepesso suggested that, with the equity market surging, Bitcoin is essentially being pulled along as risk appetite rises—rather than benefiting from meaningful, independent on-chain or spot demand. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Warns: If CLARITY Act Markup Slips, Chances Fall ‘Precipitously’ The core of the analyst’s skepticism centers on what he says is happening beneath the price action. According to OxPepesso, network activity has just hit a two-year low, and actual spot demand is “literally negative.”  In his view, that combination would mean the rally lacks the kind of real buying pressure that usually sustains higher prices. He added that the current push appears to be propped up by futures speculation, and warned that a single geopolitical development could quickly sour sentiment—potentially crashing both markets at once. Until Bitcoin reclaims its previous range low above $83,000, according to the analyst, the rally should be treated as a fakeout—not a durable trend. In that analogy, he cited a range high around $94,500 that was previously reached, rejected, and then “flushed” down into what he described as a weaker bottom near $60,000.  The analyst’s key condition is clear: a clean daily close above $83,000 would “flip the rally real,” while anything below it, in his framework, could set up the market for a sharp drop. Seller Pressure Ahead? While OxPepesso’s remarks emphasize caution, another lens on the market comes from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which highlighted data points it says align with an attempt at structural improvement.  In a new report, CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79100.  CryptoQuant’s interpretation is that maintaining holdings above these levels could signal a short-lived deep value phase, and it also pointed to $85,200 as the next key resistance area. Related Reading: Strategy Reports Q1 Results: Over $12 Billion In Red Ink—Here Are The Key Figures Contrary to OxPepesso’s analysis, the firm also said that spot demand and Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are rebuilding, which it interprets as bulls still having control—at least for the moment.  Still, the report emphasizes that Bitcoin is approaching a ceiling where additional supply may re-emerge, making the next phase more about whether buyers can keep pace as price reaches zones where sellers are likely to become more active. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had retraced toward $81,538 following its earlier push above $82,000 on Wednesday.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin pushed above $82,000 on Wednesday as markets rallied around fresh hopes that the US and Iran are moving closer to a framework agreement that could cool the conflict and ease pressure on global energy markets. The move extended Bitcoin’s recovery from its early-February low near $60,000, putting the asset up more than 36% from that level. It also added weight to a technical shift that began in late April, when BTC broke above a major downtrend line that had capped price action since the October 6 all-time high at $126,199. After confirming the breakout with a successful retest, Bitcoin has climbed roughly 10% over the past seven days. Deal Hopes Trigger Risk-On Bid For Bitcoin The latest catalyst came from an Axios report saying the White House believes it is close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding designed to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Axios reported that the US expects Iranian responses on several key points within 48 hours, while cautioning that “nothing has been agreed yet.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, But On-Chain Activity Signals A Silent Warning According to the report, the draft memorandum includes 14 points and is being negotiated by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators. In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the regional war and start a 30-day negotiation window on a broader agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and US sanctions. That distinction matters for markets. This is not yet a final peace agreement, and officials cited by Axios warned that Iran’s leadership remains divided. But for investors, even a credible path toward de-escalation was enough to reprice risk assets sharply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish May Signal After Two Green Months Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the process as incomplete but potentially actionable. “We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day. This is highly complex and technical.” Rubio added that Washington needed a diplomatic solution clear enough on “the topics they are willing to negotiate on” and the concessions available at the outset. The crypto rally arrived alongside a broader macro move. Crude oil fell sharply as traders priced in the possibility that restrictions around global energy flows could ease if the US-Iran framework progresses. WTI crude fell to $94.32, while Brent went down 6.7% to $102.56. Equity futures also strengthened. US stock index futures extended gains after the Axios report, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.26% and S&P 500 up 0.81% in pre-market trading. For Bitcoin, the setup was unusually direct: lower geopolitical risk, falling oil, stronger tech-led equity futures and renewed appetite for high-beta assets. Crypto moved as part of that broader risk-on rotation rather than as an isolated digital-asset event. UPDATE: The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) reports via X that “US oil prices are experiencing a sharp reversal, now up +8% in 60 minutes, as doubts grow over an Axios-reported potential deal to end the Iran War,” adding that “tis comes as Iran has launched a new website called the ‘Persian Gulf Strait Authority.’ At press time, BTC traded at $82,149. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading just above the $81,000 level as the market waits to see whether the next move will push higher or pull back. Against that backdrop, Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, reiterated his bullish view on the leading cryptocurrency.  In a Wednesday interview with CNBC, Siegel again pointed to a dramatic upside scenario, saying he expects Bitcoin to potentially reach $1,000,000 within the next five years. Why Bitcoin May Persist Siegel compared Bitcoin’s staying power to a familiar arc from the tech world. “It’s going to be like the video game industry.” In the same spirit, Siegel argued that investors do not simply abandon Bitcoin and move on.  “People don’t quit; they also don’t quit Bitcoin.” He added that the market is also being shaped by a larger structural shift, noting that the first central bank has begun buying Bitcoin for its reserves, which he called a “mega trend,” even if it will be “very volatile along the way.” Related Reading: Ripple CEO Warns: If CLARITY Act Markup Slips, Chances Fall ‘Precipitously’ Siegel also pointed to specific market conditions that he believes are helping support the current momentum. One factor is Bitcoin’s relationship with broader risk assets—particularly technology stocks.  He said Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has risen to a five-year high, helping explain why recent gains have appeared alongside a wider macro move. In other words, rather than Bitcoin moving in isolation, it has been trading more like a high-beta asset tied to technology-heavy indices. Another part of his argument focuses on the derivatives market. Siegel said he sees an absence of froth in derivatives, which he interprets as a sign that the rally is being driven more by short covering than by speculative overexuberance.  Near $3 Million By 2050? VanEck’s research head has also made an even longer-term projection earlier this year, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to as much as $2.9 million per coin by 2050.  That estimate, Siegel implied, is tied to a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s potential role across two major markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks.  Related Reading: Strategy Reports Q1 Results: Over $12 Billion In Red Ink—Here Are The Key Figures Looking ahead to 2050, he predicted that Bitcoin would settle between 5% and 10% of global international trade, while also accounting for 5% of domestic trade transactions. Siegel further explained that, under a scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the model could produce an extremely high implied value—he said it could rise to $53.4 million per coin.  Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s recovery attempt has carried it back above $80,000 for the first time since late January 2026, giving bulls a reason to argue that the worst of the recent correction has passed. However, one crypto analyst believes the move is running directly into the level that could decide how May ends for BTC. In a technical outlook shared on X, crypto analyst Leshka warned that Bitcoin is likely to close May in the red, pointing to a bear flag structure playing out on the daily chart.  Why Bitcoin Will Close May In Red Leshka’s outlook on Bitcoin is based on its price action since the February dump. The daily candlestick timeframe chart shows BTC recovering inside an ascending channel, with price grinding higher from the $60,000 region into the $80,000 range at the time of writing. This recovery looks constructive because the movement has caused Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher highs since the February low. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Is Coming: Pundit Says It’s Time To Sell All Your BTC However, Leshka interprets the same structure differently. According to the analyst, the rising channel is a bear flag currently in formation. A bear flag usually appears when price bounces upward in a controlled channel after a major drop, only to later break below the structure and continue lower. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent advance is shown pressing on the upper boundary of the ascending channel, and this is around the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly, Bitcoin has gone seven months without a daily close above this moving average, and this makes it a major line between a recovery rally and a confirmed trend reversal. At the time of writing, the 200 MA is around $82,000. The outlook here depends on how the Bitcoin price reacts to this level. The projected bearish path proposed by the analyst shows Bitcoin making one final push into the resistance/200 MA confluence before reversing lower, losing the channel, and falling back to the $58,000 to $56,000 range by June. BTC’s May Record Faces A Major Test Bitcoin is already up 7.11% so far in May 2026. Bitcoin’s monthly return table shows that May has often been one of its stronger months, with an average gain of 18.7% and a median return of 8.32% across previous years. Bitcoin’s price action for May in the last two years was positive, with the cryptocurrency gaining 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY That historical strength is what makes this prediction more interesting. The problem is that the rally is now pressing into the exact resistance zone where the 200-day moving average is situated.  Previous red May closes have also appeared during difficult market phases, including a 35.4% decline in May 2021, a 15.9% decline in May 2022, and a 7.10% decline in May 2023. Leshka’s view is that 2026 could join that group if the current move fails at the top of the ascending channel. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin recovery above $80,000 has brought some sort of confidence back into the crypto market, but a crypto expert is warning that the timing of the rebound may be more dangerous than it looks. As noted by the expert, who goes by the name Crypto Patel on X,  Bitcoin has now entered the same part of the four-year cycle that previously produced some of its deepest quarterly breakdowns. Bitcoin Is Repeating A Mid-Term Year Pattern Bitcoin has broken above the $80,000 mark and this has led to Coinmarketcap’s fear and greed index pushing into high neutral numbers. This move has been helped by stronger ETF inflows in April and May, but Bitcoin is still 35.5% below its October 2025 peak. All these factors say Bitcoin’s price action in May is starting with a positive note. However, according to observations noted by Crypto Patel on the social media platform X, mid-term years have been accompanied by Bitcoin price crashes, and this has repeated across multiple cycles. Related Reading: Ex-Ripple Exec Breaks Down The XRP To $10,000 Predictions, Is It Possible? The expert pointed to previous price actions in May in previous years as examples of this mid-term year weakness. His chart, published alongside the post, pointed to four distinct bear markets, each annotated with the peak-to-trough decline.  In 2014, Bitcoin peaked in May and subsequently fell 76.04%. In 2018, another May peak preceded a 68.35% collapse. In 2022, the same seasonal window in May led to a 70.06% price crash. The pattern is precise: three midterm years, three May peaks, and three catastrophic declines. “Three for three,” Crypto Patel wrote. “Not coincidence. Cycle mechanics.” The chart then projects a similar structure into 2026, which is a mid-term year, showing another possible 66.54% drop from the current price. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X The Relief Rally Trap According to this outlook, the Bitcoin price is now at an identical inflection point, right where previous cycles began their most damaging legs down. Applying the average drawdown structure from prior mid-term cycles to the current price action, Crypto Patel projected a bottom zone anywhere between $50,000 and $30,000. Related Reading: Does The Ethereum 300% Boost In Capacity Mean Price Can Rise 3x To $6,000? The difficult part of Patel’s outlook is that Bitcoin’s current market structure is not completely bearish. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,530 and is now close to breaking above its 200-day EMA around $83,000. Bitcoin spent the last eight weeks consolidating in the $60,000 to $72,000 range before its recent recovery. That recovery has been interpreted by much of the market as confirmation that the bottom is established and the worst is over. However, the crypto expert’s post directly addresses this sentiment as a possible trap. “The dip is in. Wrong. That’s the trap,” he said. Several analysts have also noted that the four-year halving cycle suggests that the current bear market may extend through Q4 before forming a durable bottom.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Sherlock has revealed how a Bitcoin price crash to $63,000 could play out. He highlighted key levels to watch and zones where traders should look to short BTC in preparation for this potential downtrend.  Key Levels To Watch With Bitcoin Price Crash To $63,000 On The Cards In an X post, Sherlock told traders to look for a short setup around $80,000 if the Bitcoin price only takes the equal highs around this range and then gets rejected. However, he added that if BTC breaks above April’s high at $79,485 before May 5, traders shouldn’t short immediately; instead, they should wait for breakout buyers to chase the pump.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Closes 2 Green Monthly Candles: Here’s What Historical Data Says Is Coming Next The analyst further highlighted the $84,000 to $85,000 range as the ideal zone to short if the Bitcoin price reclaims the April high, as he expects a short squeeze to happen around that range. This suggests that BTC could still rally to around $85,000 before a decline, since the leading crypto has successfully broken above the April high.  Sherlock’s accompanying chart showed that a Bitcoin price crash to around $63,000 could happen within a month after BTC taps the $85,000 level. The analyst also explained why he is confident the leading crypto could still crash despite its current bullish momentum. He noted that since 2020, BTC has always recorded a red monthly candle in May whenever the price failed to break above April’s high in the first five days of May.  However, this trend broke last year when the Bitcoin price surpassed April’s high on May 1 and then recorded another 16.9% rally to a local high of $111,980 by May 22. This is notably why BTC could still rally to around $85,000 before the crash occurs.  BTC Looks Ready For More Upside Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said in an X post that the Bitcoin price looks ready for more upside, with the potential to rally to as high as $93,000. He noted that BTC broke above $79,000, indicating a clearly upward trend, although intraday corrections are possible. The analyst alluded to flows into Bitcoin ETFs, with these funds recording over $1.6 billion in inflows since the start of this month.  Related Reading: This Signal Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bottom, Here’s What It’s Saying Now Van de Poppe also mentioned that there is a lot of interest in BTC at the moment, which is why he believes that the rotation from gold to Bitcoin is definitely taking place. He added that the current uptrend is unlikely to stall anytime soon, with the current construction. This is why he believes there is room for a rally between $86,000 and $88,000, and most likely between $91,000 and $93,000.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,200, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000 alongside a broad risk rally, but Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital is urging caution — pointing to options market signals, a fragile macro backdrop, and an emerging pressure point in Japan that could tighten global liquidity before the next leg higher is confirmed. Related Reading: Toncoin Surges 60% As Durov Defends Telegram’s TON Push The catalyst for the recovery, according to QCP’s latest market update posted on X, was Trump’s pause on “Project Freedom” — the US-led operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — after the administration cited “great progress” in talks with Iran. Markets read the move as a de-escalation signal. Oil sold off, equities climbed, and the dollar softened as traders began pricing out the immediate risk of a Hormuz disruption. Bitcoin Rides The Risk-On Wave — With Caveats Bitcoin participated fully in the recovery, reclaiming the $80,000 level as the S&P 500 posted its best month since 2020, with semiconductors leading equity gains on the back of resilient AI earnings and robust capex guidance. Per QCP’s analysis, the move reinforces BTC’s renewed linkage with risk assets — once again trading as a high-beta expression of liquidity conditions, dollar weakness, and broader risk appetite rather than as an independent store of value. The $80,000 reclaim looks clean on the surface, but QCP remains cautious. Options Markets Are Not Confirming The Breakout Despite spot climbing back above $81,000 and posting more than 6% gains on the week, QCP notes that options markets have not confirmed a genuine breakout. One-month at-the-money implied volatility sits around 41%, near the lower end of its recent range. Front-month vols have softened even as spot moved higher — a signal, per QCP, of investors hedging against potential risk rather than preparing for further upside. Skew tells a similar story. The 30-day risk reversal remains put-rich (bearish) at approximately -5.5 vol, meaning investors are participating in the upside but still paying for downside protection. As QCP frames it, the market is cautiously optimistic — not euphoric. That distinction matters for how durable the current move proves to be. Japan: The Macro Risk Nobody Is Watching Beyond the Fed and Iran, QCP flags Japan as an emerging pressure point that deserves closer attention. The yen remains weak, Ministry of Finance intervention risk has returned, and Japanese Government Bond yields have moved sharply higher — a combination suggesting markets are already pricing the risk that imported inflation feeds through into Japanese CPI. Should USDJPY push back toward the 160 level, intervention risk rises materially. A sustained increase in JGB term premium, QCP warns, could tighten global liquidity at the margin — a dynamic with consequences well beyond Tokyo for risk assets broadly. The Road Ahead Is Narrow QCP’s bottom line is measured. April’s rally was real, but the firm characterizes it as an earnings and liquidity-led rebound against a fragile macro backdrop rather than a clean regime shift. BTC can continue to grind higher if ETF flows, dollar weakness, and equities hold up — but the rally remains exposed to real yields, oil prices, term premium, and FX intervention risk. With open interest clustered around the $80,000–$85,000 range, a convincing break above $82,000–$83,000 is the level to watch. Until that threshold is cleared, QCP suggests rallies may continue to be faded on any sharp move higher in oil, USDJPY, or global yields. This development marks a pivotal juncture for Bitcoin in the current cycle — the next few sessions will determine whether April’s momentum was the start of something structural or simply a relief trade running on borrowed time. Related Reading: David Schwartz Says Selling XRP Doesn’t Make Him The Villain As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $81,000, holding above the critical $80,000 level as markets await the next macro catalyst. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a notable 21% recovery over the thirty-day timeframe, pushing the largest cryptocurrency in the market above the $81,000 level for the first time since January. Now, BTC is approaching one key resistance, which—if surpassed with a daily close—could open the door to another leg higher. Bitcoin Targets $89,000 And $94,000 Technical analyst Ali Martinez pointed to this momentum in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin continues to show “structural strength.”  Martinez referenced a bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossover on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that occurred on April 13. Since that weekly signal appeared, BTC has gained roughly 15% in a relatively steady grind, reinforcing the idea that the trend may be shifting rather than just bouncing randomly. Related Reading: XRP Near $1.40—What Could Spark A Move To $1.70, And How The CLARITY Act Fits In What makes the weekly Bitcoin MACD crossover particularly notable is how it has behaved historically. According to Martinez’s recap of earlier instances, the same kind of crossover preceded major multi-month rallies in prior cycles.  The October 23, 2023 crossover was followed by a 147% rally. Another example on October 14, 2024 led to a 75% rise, while the May 5, 2025 crossover resulted in a 35% rally.  Even with the broader bullish backdrop, the near-term chart still presents a key test. Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin is moving into the vicinity of the 200-day simple moving average (200SMA), currently around $83,000.  He described this area as the most important psychological and structural barrier on the daily chart. In his view, a clean daily close above this level could open the door to a macro expansion, first toward $89,000, with a secondary target near $94,000. Bull Market Support Band Reclaimed Adding to the technical picture, market expert Sam Daodu also flagged a separate indicator involving Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band (currently at $79,000), which is built from the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).  Daodu noted that whenever Bitcoin reclaimed this band after spending an extended period below it, the market tended to follow with strong rallies—often reaching 50% or more within a few months.  Applying that pattern, the bullish path Daodu implied could take BTC toward approximately $121,000, which would still sit just below the all-time high region around $126,000 reached in October of last year.  Related Reading: DTCC Tokenized Securities Roadmap: Pilot In July, Scale Up In October—With Big Names Like Ripple Still, even with bullish signals lining up, the situation is not considered settled. The reports emphasize that Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above these levels to maintain the momentum.  It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin can continue pressing into resistance successfully, or whether the latest surge above $81,000 could be followed by another correction. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s latest rally is being driven by a sharp acceleration in institutional demand, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, who says large buyers are now absorbing roughly six times the amount of BTC mined each day. The setup has pushed several of Capriole’s long-running Bitcoin models back into bullish territory, with Edwards arguing that both on-chain and technical conditions now favor a continuation higher. In a May 5 Substack post titled “Institutions are Guzzling Bitcoin,” Edwards said institutional flows have intensified since his previous update, rising to around 577% of daily mined supply. Bitcoin, he noted, has gained 12% over the same period. “Institutions are slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply. Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we’ve typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases.” Based on that historical pattern, Edwards said a comparable move would put Bitcoin near $96,000. The argument is straightforward: if institutional demand continues to exceed new issuance by such a wide margin, available supply tightens quickly, especially in a market where long-term holders have already shown less willingness to sell into weakness. Capriole Models Turn Bullish Bitcoin From $71,000 Edwards also pointed to Capriole’s internal models, including Trend King and Macro Index, both of which flipped long around $71,000. Trend King, described by Edwards as the firm’s longest-running live trading strategy, is currently leveraged long Bitcoin. The model is primarily technical, though it also incorporates selected on-chain inputs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality Flashes Bullish May Signal After Two Green Months Macro Index, Capriole’s fundamentals-only Bitcoin model, has also moved into what Edwards described as “recovery” mode. The model tracks more than 200 on-chain and macro market data points, providing an aggregate view of Bitcoin’s fundamental backdrop. Edwards said its trends “tend to be sticky,” implying that the signal is less about a short-term tactical trade and more about a broader regime shift. Derivatives data adds another layer to the bullish case. Capriole’s Bitcoin Perps Heat indicator, which tracks relative extremes in perpetual swap markets by measuring funding rates and open interest across a four-year normalization window, recently showed what Edwards called an “extremely bullish long term signal” following excessive shorting. Related Reading: Crypto Shorts Suffer $300M Flush As Bitcoin Hits $80,000 That matters because market positioning appears to have reset before the breakout. Edwards wrote that “complete capitulation on derivatives markets occurred in March/April,” suggesting that leverage had been flushed out before Bitcoin’s latest move higher. In that framing, the rally is not simply chasing overheated longs; it is emerging after a period in which traders were leaning too defensively. SOPR Breakout Confirms On-Chain Momentum Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, is another key piece of the thesis. Edwards highlighted that SOPR had spent significant time below 1, a zone he described in the previous issue as historically offering “great Bitcoin opportunities.” In the latest note, he said the metric has now closed back above 1, signaling a return of positive price and on-chain momentum. “Bitcoin looks incredibly strong here. It’s also supported by relative strength against all markets, having bottomed and outperformed since the Iran war started. We see consistent strength across technical and fundamental data for Bitcoin today.” The equities backdrop is more mixed, but still broadly supportive of risk assets in Edwards’ view. He said Capriole’s “quiet strong market” strategy remains risk-on, while collapsing credit spreads and a favorable VIX regime are backing the current breakout. The S&P 500 has also printed a fresh all-time high, with Edwards identifying 7,000 as the key weekly level to watch. There are caveats. Edwards flagged weakness in the advance-decline line, high oil prices linked to the Iran war, and the gold-to-stock ratio as longer-term equity risks. But for now, he framed those as warnings rather than a confirmed bearish turn. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $81,429. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Max has cited historical data to provide insights into what could be next for Bitcoin, noting that it has closed two consecutive monthly candles in the green. Based on this historical data, BTC may be heading for a red month, except if this bear cycle turns out to be different.  Bitcoin Expected To Close This Month In The Red After Two Monthly Green Candles In an X post, Max stated that there has never been a bear market where Bitcoin printed more than two consecutive monthly candles. He noted that BTC closed March and April in the green, with gains of 2% and 12%, respectively. As such, the analyst remarked that this month is likely to close red unless this cycle is different from every previous one. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Exactly When To Sell Bitcoin For The Most Return Max also mentioned that further downside remains, given the higher probability that May is a historically weak month and a large amount of liquidity is sitting below. However, it is worth noting that Bitcoin is already up almost 6% this month, rising to a multi-month high of $81,000 today. This has provided optimism that the bull market may be back with BTC targeting new highs.  The analyst commented on the current Bitcoin price action, indicating that it is still bearish despite the recent rally. He noted that on the first two attempts to break above the $79,000 resistance, a clear rejection followed. Now, on this third attempt, price has managed to break above but quickly lost momentum and closed back below the resistance.  In line with this, Max opined that Bitcoin’s current price action looks like a typical fakeout and liquidity grab. He added that there is a high chance BTC will sweep the untouched lows next if price continues to find acceptance below $79,000. How BTC Could Reach $94,000 Crypto analyst Ali Martinez predicted that Bitcoin could reach $94,000 on this rally. He noted that on the daily chart, BTC is approaching the 200 SMA at $83,000, which is the most significant psychological and structural barrier. The analyst added that a clean daily close above this hurdle could clear the path for a macro expansion toward $89,000, with a secondary target at $94,000.  Related Reading: What The Sharp Drop In The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Means For The BTC Price Martinez also noted that Bitcoin continues to show structural strength, with a 15% price increase following a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart on April 13. He added that historically, this specific weekly crossover has been a premier signal for defining multi-month trends. Notably, this crossover led to 147%, 75%, and 35% rallies in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies have staged a notable recovery over the past two weeks, with BTC climbing back toward the $80,000 area from lows near $75,000 — a move underpinned by renewed institutional demand and easing geopolitical risk, according to the market insights team at QCP Capital, one of Asia’s largest digital asset trading firms. Related Reading: TON Jumps 30% As Durov Says Telegram Will Take The Lead The broader crypto market has moved in step with the recovery. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana have each posted gains alongside Bitcoin over the period, reflecting a return of risk appetite across the digital asset space. The catalyst, as QCP’s analysis frames it, is a combination of supportive ETF flows and a partial de-escalation of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz — a geopolitical variable that has weighed heavily on risk assets since early in the year. ETF Flows Doing The Heavy Lifting According to QCP Capital’s most recent market update, spot ETF flows remain a key pillar of the current recovery. The firm noted approximately $163 million in net inflows last week, with outflows recorded between April 27 and April 29 — likely tied to month-end rebalancing and basis trade adjustments — more than offset by a single-session inflow of approximately $630 million on Friday. That flow pattern matters. April closed as the strongest month for spot Bitcoin ETF demand in 2026, with $2.44 billion in net inflows, according to data tracked by Investing.com — nearly double March’s figure and enough to push total cumulative inflows since the January 2024 launch above $58.5 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the monthly tally, accounting for the bulk of net capital across the eleven US-listed products. The picture is not without caveats. As CoinDesk reported, cumulative inflows remain roughly $2.5 billion below the October 2025 peak of $61.19 billion — a gap that reflects the $6.38 billion in outflows recorded between November 2025 and February 2026. The recovery, in other words, is real but incomplete. The Real Test For The Bitcoin Price: $80,000 QCP’s analysis points to the macro backdrop as the other swing factor. The firm noted in an earlier market update that the conflict premium tied to Hormuz tensions has not fully washed out, leaving BTC’s current strength reading more as relief than regime shift. Fresh shorts, per QCP’s observations, continued to be added into recent strength rather than being fully forced out — a positioning dynamic that leaves the market tactically vulnerable to squeezes but stops short of signaling a decisive sentiment shift. That view is echoed elsewhere. Analysts at Marex described $80,000 as the key psychological barrier. A clean break and sustained hold above that level, they noted, would shift the market into a momentum-driven trade with room to extend. A rejection, by contrast, invites profit-taking back toward the mid-$70,000 range. Key risks flagged by QCP include the possibility of renewed US-Iran tensions, with energy markets still sensitive to any Hormuz disruption, and the continued overhang of US tariff policy on countries importing Iranian crude. This development marks a pivotal juncture for Bitcoin and the broader nascent sector. The next few sessions will prove whether the current recovery has the structural conviction to hold above $80,000 or remains a rally trading on borrowed relief. Related Reading: Bitcoin Targets $86,000 After Key EMA Reclaim: Is The Next Rally Here? As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at around $79,500 after briefly topping $80,000 during Asian hours, consolidating near the critical level that analysts say will determine the near-term direction of the market. Bitcoin price crossing above $80,000 on the daily chart, a close above this level on higher timeframes might kick off a bigger rally. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s May setup is drawing fresh attention after two consecutive green months, with Trader_XO pointing to seasonality data that leaves BTC on the edge of a rare three-month streak. The question is whether the historical pattern has real market weight this time, or whether the latest geopolitical shock has already complicated the signal. Bitcoin Eyes Rare Three-Month Winning Streak The Coinglass data shared by Trader_XO shows Bitcoin’s monthly returns by year, with 2026 so far marked by a sharp early-year drawdown followed by a recovery phase. BTC fell 10.17% in January and another 14.94% in February, before turning higher with a 1.81% gain in March and an 11.87% advance in April. May is shown up 3.18% so far, keeping the month positive at the time of the snapshot. “Bitcoin seasonality, with context,” Trader_XO wrote. “May stats: Positive ~60% of the time (8/13 years). Avg return: ~+8%. Median return: ~+3%. Only once has BTC had March, April, May all green (2019). This year so far: March: +1.81%. April: +11.87%. May opened at 76.3s. Does May end up being positive by month end?” The Coinglass table gives the seasonal argument some structure. Its visible average row lists May at +7.82%, making it one of Bitcoin’s stronger months historically, behind October, November and April in the displayed data. The median row shows May at +6.34%, while the broader table highlights how uneven the month has been: May delivered outsized gains in 2017 and 2019, both above 52%, but also saw deep losses in 2021 and 2022, at -35.31% and -15.6%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Tops $80,000 For First Time Since January After Trump Announcement That dispersion matters. May’s green bias is not the same as a reliable monthly trade. The chart shows positive May returns in eight of the past 13 completed years, but the losses, when they arrived, were large enough to make context more important than a simple seasonal read. That was also the point raised in the replies. StrongHedge argued that “context matters alongside data,” noting that in 2019 the market had “pico bottomed” and was beginning a new uptrend. Trader_XO agreed, responding: “Yep — exact same thoughts.” The comparison is important because 2019 remains the only year in the dataset where Bitcoin posted gains in March, April and May in sequence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Show Signs Of Exhaustion Around $78,000 — What’s Next? For 2026, the market is now testing whether the same three-month pattern can repeat after a very different start to the year. The rebound from February’s drawdown has been strong enough to restore upside momentum, but not clean enough to remove macro and geopolitical risk from the equation. That became clear in Monday’s price action. Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 for the first time since late January, reaching an intraday high around $80,529, after Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a US effort tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that the US deployed Navy guided-missile destroyers to help escort commercial vessels, while AP reported that CENTCOM said two American-flagged merchant ships transited the strait with Navy support. The relief move did not hold. Later, Iran’s Fars news agency reported that missiles had hit a US warship near Jask Island after it ignored Iranian warnings, while US officials denied that any Navy vessel had been struck. Bitcoin quickly lost the $80,000 breakout and slipped back toward the high-$78,000s. At press time, BTC traded at $78,755. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is undergoing a notable transformation as shifting market conditions redefine how the asset behaves and is valued. Once dominated by retail speculation and predictable halving-driven cycles, BTC is now entering a more mature phase shaped by broader financial forces.  How The Bitcoin Structure Is Shifting Beyond Halving Narratives Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point where its market structure could shift decisively. A KOL manager and advisor known as BitBull on X has stated that the short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently hovering around 1.0, a historically important level that reflects whether recent buyers are in profit or under pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Show Signs Of Exhaustion Around $78,000 — What’s Next? According to BitBull, when the MVRV remains below 1.0, it typically signals that most short-term holders are under pressure and rallies struggle. In every previous cycle, the real move began only after the MVRV reclaimed and held above 1.0, which is when selling pressure starts to fade, and momentum begins to build on the upside. At the same time, BTC price is attempting to reclaim the short-term holder realized price, another key on-chain level that often acts as a dividing line between weak and strong market structure. However, if MVRV reclaims and holds above 1.0 and the price breaks the short-term holder realized price, it usually marks a shift from a weakening structure to a stronger trend-driven market.  Currently, BTC is very close to that point. Daily Close Above Resistance Could Shift Market Momentum The Bitcoin price is sitting at a critical inflation point that could define its next major move. Top KOL on Tradingview and CMC, known as Cryptorphic on X, highlighted that the price is currently testing a well-established resistance zone around $80,000, an area that has previously acted as a strong barrier. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish This makes the current setup particularly important, and a clean daily close above the region would signal a weakening of bearish momentum pressure and potentially open the path for continued upside expansion. However, the structure isn’t fully convincing, and the BTC price is slowly grinding into resistance without strong follow-through. At the same time, volume is declining even as the price pushes higher and prints higher highs. This type of divergence between price action and participation often signals weakening momentum behind the move, increasing the likelihood of either a rejection or a short-term pullback. That’s why this level represents a key decision point.  Furthermore, if buyers step in with strong volume and push the price firmly above resistance, it could confirm a breakout and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. On the other hand, if it fails to break through convincingly, it may result in another rejection from the resistance. In this structure, the daily close is the key signal because BTC’s behavior here will determine the next move. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is trading close to $80,000 in the first week of May; Jerome Powell is weeks away from stepping down as Federal Reserve chair; the S&P 500 is at an all-time high; and sentiment across crypto markets is slowly turning positive.  Crypto trader and market analyst Aralez has stepped forward with a full arc of the industry’s next major cycle that stretches from the second quarter of 2026 into the end of 2027. The prediction starts with a bearish short-term outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, but it does not end there. Bitcoin And Ethereum Could Face Another Deep Drop Before Q3 The first stage of Aralez’s prediction focuses on May and June 2026, where he expects the market to see one more wave of panic. This is the most bearish part of the forecast, and it places the Bitcoin price reaching below $58,000, which would represent a drop of about 27% from its current price near $79,715. The chart attached to the analysis shows Bitcoin holding close to $80,000 before rolling over into a projected Q2 decline. Related Reading: This Week In Bitcoin: Top Developments That Could Signal A New Era Ethereum, in his view, could fall to around $1,600. This would also translate to a decline of about 32% from its current price of $2,359. Aralez also tied this stage to weakness in the S&P 500, with a prediction that it could reverse and fall below 6,800. That would be a clear break from the current mood in equities, where the index is currently trading at new highs around 7,230. The second part of the forecast is on Q3 2026, when Bitcoin will start to form a bottom while whales begin accumulating. The trigger in his forecast is a change in Federal Reserve leadership, followed by a strong market drop and the first US rate cut. Aralez’s prediction is that the leadership transition will lead to a market sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling to as low as $5,200 in the worst of it. Q4 2026 To 2027 Could Bring Bitcoin Back Above Its Record High The most bullish section of the prediction begins in Q4 2026. Aralez expects Bitcoin to start a new uptrend and reach above $90,000 before the end of the year. That would represent a major recovery from the projected sub-$58,000 Q2 target, but the analyst sees it as only the first stage of a bigger move. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Have Been Rising And Falling Sharply The outlook is that Bitcoin will break its all-time high and reach above $140,000 sometime between Q1 and Q4 2027. The surge will be supported by mass integration of AI into the crypto industry, the launch of quantitative easing amid a global crisis, and new narratives bringing millions of participants into crypto. Those who buy Bitcoin during the Q3 2026 bottom, at or below $58,000, would achieve close to a 3x return within twelve months if the $140,000 target is hit. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The latest Bitcoin move has brought bulls back into control of the short-term chart, but the setup is not as straightforward as a clean breakout into higher prices. The 4-hour structure shows momentum building, trendline support holding, and buyers pushing through to higher highs.  However, the path to a much larger expansion still appears to have one unfinished step. The technical chart implies Bitcoin may need to revisit an important area before the next major move to at least $97,000 can develop properly. Bitcoin Breakout Leaves One Important Level Behind Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the 4-hour candlestick chart posted on the TradingView platform shows the leading cryptocurrency is already doing the difficult part of the setup.  Related Reading: If You Hold XRP, Then You Should Be Paying Attention To These Major Developments Bitcoin’s price action has moved above the long descending resistance line that had stopped previous rallies, turning the broader 4-hour structure more bullish. The breakout also came while Bitcoin continued to respect the rising support trendline that has guided the recovery since late February to April. However, breakouts without retests are incomplete. The 4-hour chart also shows that the Bitcoin price has moved ahead of the strongest demand zone, leaving behind the $71,900 to $72,000 region as the area bears may still want to retest.  Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView The Expansion Phase And What It Requires The most important part of the setup is the support region around $71,900 to $72,000. However, a retest of this range would not be a sign of weakness. It would be the price action doing precisely what it is supposed to do: return to a level of proven demand and absorb remaining sell orders, create a strong buying opportunity, and establish a foundation solid enough to support an expansion to new yearly highs. Speaking of a run to new yearly highs, the price target proposed by this analysis is a rally to at least $97,400. This means the bullish setup has some room to breathe, but not unlimited room.  Related Reading: Here’s How The Ethereum Vs. Solana Rivalry Is Going There is an invalidation level sitting at $67,500. A breakdown below $67,500 would weaken the argument that Bitcoin is only retesting before expansion. Instead, it would mean that the breakout has failed and that sellers have regained control of the short-term structure. The broader market backdrop is helping the bullish case. Bitcoin’s rebound has coincided with heavy demand through US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which witnessed $630 million in inflows on May 1. Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 over the weekend, but the move failed to hold as the price reversed before the daily close. A daily close above $80,000 could serve as the first signal of a broader bullish expansion.  BTC 200 Day Moving Average The next major confirmation would be a daily close above the 200-day moving average, which is currently at $83,600. Bitcoin has not closed above this moving average since October 2025, making it an important level for bulls to reclaim. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is once again pressing against the pivotal $80,000 resistance, a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts in recent price action. The market now finds itself at a decisive moment, where a confirmed breakout could ignite fresh bullish momentum, while failure to push higher may trigger another wave of selling pressure.  BTC Tests Critical $80,000 Resistance Zone Bitcoin is currently positioned at a critical technical juncture that demands close attention. According to Cryptorphic, the price is actively testing formidable resistance situated around the $80,000 region. This psychological and technical barrier has recently served as a significant ceiling. Related Reading: Bitcoin Clings To Key Support: EMA Reclaim Vs $78,000 Resistance Showdown The primary catalyst for a trend continuation lies in the daily candlestick close. A clean daily close above this $80,000 area would invalidate the prevailing bearish momentum and pave the way for a move into higher price discovery. However, the current price action is characterized by a slow grind into resistance rather than an impulsive breakout, suggesting a lack of immediate follow-through from buyers. A concerning development in this setup is the divergence between price and trading volume. While Bitcoin continues to notch higher highs, trading volume is notably declining. This suggests that the strength behind the upward move is waning, a technical signal that often precedes a sharp rejection or a healthy pullback. The outlook now hinges on whether Bitcoin can generate a high-volume surge to clear the $80,000 hurdle or if the lack of conviction will result in another rejection from this key resistance. Currently, the daily close is the primary indicator to determine the next market move. Bitcoin Reaches Key Inverse Flag Target At $80,500 The latest technical analysis from Bitcoin Meraklısı confirms that the primary upside objective has been achieved. Bitcoin has successfully reached the initial target previously identified: the critical inverse flag resistance level situated at the $80,500 mark. Reaching this milestone marks a pivotal moment in the current price action, as the market tests the upper boundaries of this formation. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Transitional Phase? Bull Score Index Signals Uncertain Momentum Should the price successfully break above this flag resistance and maintain its upward trajectory, a series of sequential horizontal targets becomes relevant. Analysts are keeping a close watch on the $84,500 level as the next immediate hurdle. Beyond that, it is $93,000, with the ultimate target resting near the $98,000 barrier. Despite the optimistic momentum, breaking through the inverse flag resistance is rarely seamless. Thus, the possibility of a price reaction, or a temporary rejection, at this junction must be factored into any trading strategy. Looking ahead, the prevailing expectation is for the upward trend to persist. However, in the volatile landscape of digital assets, it is essential to remain objective and weigh all potential outcomes. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Tice has pointed to a signal that has predicted every Bitcoin bottom in each bear cycle. Based on this, the analyst suggested that the flagship crypto may again be forming a bottom just as the price looks to break above the psychological $80,000 level.  The Signal That Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bottom Is Again Aligning In an X post, Tice said that the signal that has called every Bitcoin bottom in history has triggered again. He noted that in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear cycles, BTC was in a bear cycle for around 14 months before forming a bottom, with a price explosion following. Now, this same pattern may be playing out again with BTC looking to form a bottom.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Exactly When To Sell Bitcoin For The Most Return Tice stated that risk has been repriced, leverage has been cleared, and sentiment has been washed out. He added that time alignment is a condition, not a confirmation. Right now, time, structure, and positioning are said to be all aligning. He suggested that now was a good time to invest in Bitcoin with the “window” open and that asymmetric opportunities like this don’t wait.   In another X post, the analyst reiterated that a Bitcoin bottom was forming. He alluded to the median Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which he noted has hit the same signal as every major bottom in BTC history. Tice added that a multi-year bull market has always followed whenever this signal appears, as it has now.  Therefore, he remarked that if history rhymes even loosely, then two to three years of bull market for BTC may be on the horizon. He added that the bear market that felt different on the way down is about to feel very familiar on the way up.  BTC Approaching A Make-or-Break Level Crypto analyst Colin stated that Bitcoin is nearing an interesting spot on the chart, which is the intersection of two trend lines and one horizontal resistance level. Based on this, he gave a 50% chance of BTC forming a local top around this intersection. However, if it breaks above the channel, the analyst predicts it could move much higher and reach a local top around the $84,000 to $86,000 zone.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Is Coming: Pundit Says It’s Time To Sell All Your BTC Colin noted that the zone is where the most immediate and significant horizontal resistance can be found from the previous consolidation range. Meanwhile, the analyst doesn’t believe Bitcoin is back in a bull run, despite the leading crypto forming new highs since its February 6 low of around $60,000. BTC has also notably rallied amid the U.S.-Iran war.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $79.900, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000 for the first time since late January, as traders reacted to a mix of geopolitical relief, steady ETF demand and a moderate short squeeze across crypto derivatives markets. BTC traded near $80,000 after touching an intraday high of $80,529, reaching its highest level since January 31. The break matters because $80,000 had become the market’s nearest psychological ceiling after weeks of recovery from deeper Q1 stress. Why Is The Bitcoin Price Up Today? The main catalyst appeared to come from Washington. In a Truth Social post on Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom,” an operation he said would help ships stranded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump framed the move as a “humanitarian gesture” for neutral countries affected by the US-Israeli war with Iran, saying the US would “guide their Ships safely” through restricted waterways so they could resume business. Related Reading: Bitcoin Apparent Demand Remains Weak — What This Says About Price Recovery The message landed in a market already sensitive to any shift in the Hormuz standoff. The initiative is scheduled to begin Monday and could involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members, while Iran denounced the plan as a possible ceasefire violation. “They are victims of circumstance,” Trump wrote of the stranded crews. Any interference, he added, would “have to be dealt with forcefully.” For crypto traders, the important point was not that Hormuz risk disappeared. It did not. The point was that the US announcement gave markets a concrete de-escalation path after weeks in which blocked shipping, higher energy risk and uncertainty around Iran had weighed on broader risk appetite. Iran’s effective closure of the strait had shaken global markets, with ships and seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf since the war began. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Show Signs Of Exhaustion Around $78,000 — What’s Next? Derivatives positioning then amplified the move. CoinGlass data shows $356.55 million in total crypto liquidations over 24 hours, including $303.88 million in short liquidations against $52.66 million in longs. Bitcoin accounted for the largest liquidation block in the heatmap at $170.69 million, followed by Ethereum at $91.60 million. That is consistent with a moderate short squeeze: bearish positions were forced to buy back into a rising market, adding mechanical demand just as BTC cleared the $80,000 area. The squeeze was not the only support. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US recorded a fifth consecutive week of inflows, totaling $153.87 million last week, according to SoSoValue data. That flow profile helped strengthen the argument that the move was not purely a headline-driven spike, but also reflected continued institutional allocation after weeks of recovery. At press time, BTC traded at $79,865. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin had a modest start to May, with the flagship cryptocurrency rising as much as 3.5% on Friday. As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency trades near $78,400, barely moving over the past day. Interestingly, a market pundit has explained how a perceived shift in Bitcoin’s investor behavior could be a major influence on the cryptocurrency’s inertia. Buying Power On Binance Fades After Bitcoin Rally Crazzyblockk, in a QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, highlighted a dynamic shift among Bitcoin investors over the past few days. The relevant indicator cited here is the Binance Stablecoin Netflow (USD) metric. Related Reading: Bitcoin Apparent Demand Remains Weak — What This Says About Price Recovery For context, the metric tracks the net amount of stablecoins entering or leaving Binance, thereby indicating whether buying power is accumulating (inflows) or being withdrawn (outflows) from the exchange. According to Crazzyblockk, Binance (the world’s leading exchange by trading volume) had, on a daily basis, recorded significant amounts in net inflows from 14th to 22nd April. During this period, Binance saw daily inflows of $548 million to $1.14 billion in fresh stablecoins. Interestingly, this consistent stream of inflows corresponded with Bitcoin’s recovery from $74,000 to $78,000. The crypto expert noted that this is a sign of “textbook buying power accumulation on Binance.”  However, this stream of stablecoin inflows appears to have come to an end—an event that could, in turn, cause the rally to progressively lose strength. This could, by extension, be a sign of potential sentiment shift, as bearish pressure could quickly kick in at major resistance levels (as is currently the case). Binance Records $1.54-$1.78B In Outflows Per Day Since April 28 On the flipside, investors did not merely hold off on their liquidity; they may also be showing signs of a sentiment shift. Starting April 28, Binance has seen five consecutive days of stablecoin outflows, ranging from $1.54 billion to $1.78 billion each day.    According to Crazzyblockk, a similarly heavy stablecoin sell-off has not been seen in the Bitcoin market since January 26. The last time it happened, daily outflows reached $3.2 billion, while the market leader traded near $89,500. Notably, that period was followed by a roughly 15% decline in BTC’s price before it eventually stabilized around $76,000. Crazzyblockk further explained that this is due to a simple mechanism that repeats itself on a smaller scale: “stablecoin reserves built up, fueled a rally, then drained as the cycle exhausted itself.” Hence, if the stablecoin netflows on Binance fail to transition back into the ‘inflows’ side, Bitcoin could be facing significant downside risk. To alleviate this risk, Crazzyblockk explained that fresh capital, in the form of stablecoins, would need to re-enter exchanges, especially Binance.  Related Reading: ‘Ethereum’s Price Should Have Dropped Already’ – Analyst Explains The On-Chain Signal Behind The Warning Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After weeks of renewed optimism, many in the Bitcoin market now believe the tide could finally be turning. While the premier cryptocurrency’s price action has been steadily turning around since the start of April, the current on-chain structure suggests expectations might be overestimated. According to an on-chain analyst, BTC’s recovery process is unlikely to occur in a few weeks. Bitcoin Bottom Could Take Six Months To Form: Analyst In a May 2nd post on the X platform, crypto pundit Axel Adler Jr. shared an on-chain insight into the recovery path of Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. This on-chain observation is based on an adjusted model of the Realized Price Bands metric that reflects the average cost basis of different market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be One Breakout Away From A Structural Shift: Analysts The Adjusted Realized Price Bands model is calibrated to only account for Bitcoin’s live circulating supply, filtering the effect of the dormant — albeit significant — portion of the coin’s total supply. This metric shows when significant holders, who are likely to make market decisions, are at a loss or near a loss, signaling historical accumulation zones. Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Adler Jr. revealed that the lower bound of the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, known as the “RP Alive,” is now below $59,000. According to the on-chain analyst, this price zone could mark the start of a Bitcoin bottom formation, suggesting the market leader might still have one more leg down. Adler Jr., however, noted that Bitcoin’s price being near the bottom doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, as bottom formation isn’t a “one or two week process.” The analyst postulated that the base case for the bottom formation is around six months. BTC Bottom Formation Depends On Return Of Market Demand Adler Jr. further explained the rationale for the six-month base case conclusion, noting that demand remains the core driver of bottom formations. The on-chain analyst then mentioned that real demand forms only over the long term, not on emotion or local bounces. In essence, the on-chain analyst believes the bottom formation will only begin when the investors start to “see forward-looking value again,” and genuine spot demand returns to the market. Unfortunately, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s apparent demand remains weak. As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,458, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up nearly 2% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Dogecoin Inverted Scale Shows A Sharp Drop, But Something Is Interesting About This Chart Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView