THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick says Bitcoin could still face a final washout to $50,000 before recovering sharply, arguing that the current drawdown looks more like a macro-led tech capitulation than a crypto-specific breakdown. Speaking on Deribit’s Crypto Options Unplugged, Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said he still expects Bitcoin to end the year at $100,000 and reach $500,000 by 2030, even as he warned that the near-term setup remains fragile. “Picking the bottom is always extremely difficult,” Kendrick said, framing the recent selloff as mostly orderly outside a few volatile weeks. He argued that institutional positioning has held up better than many expected, pointing to relatively sticky ETF exposure and continued buying from MicroStrategy even after the stock’s premium to net asset value fell below one. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory Still, Kendrick said the market may not be done deleveraging. “I suspect we could still see that final capitulation. Now, it could be macro driven,” he said. “Bitcoin and crypto assets more broadly is still very highly correlated with the Nasdaq.” In his view, weaker earnings from large US tech names over the next few months, combined with a lack of immediate Federal Reserve support, could drag crypto lower alongside equities. That, he said, is what makes the $50,000 level plausible. Kendrick compared the potential move with prior cycle drawdowns, noting that a decline to that zone would still be shallower than the roughly 75% peak-to-trough drop seen in the previous cycle. The key difference this time, he argued, is the absence so far of a major internal crypto failure on the scale of FTX. Why Kendrick Is Long-Term Bullish On Bitcoin Even so, Kendrick’s medium- and long-term thesis remains emphatically bullish. He tied that outlook less to short-term trading flows than to what he sees as a structural shift driven by stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Last year, when stablecoins stood around $200 billion, Kendrick projected they could grow to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. He said the market is now closer to $300 billion, with much of that demand coming not from crypto trading but from savings use cases in emerging markets. “What’s replaced it has primarily been savings in emerging markets,” Kendrick said, referring to stablecoins’ original role as on-off ramps for crypto trading. “On my estimate of the $300 billion, about $200 [billion] is for EM savings use case.” He added that much of that capital appears to sit in large wallets and turns over infrequently, suggesting it is being used more as stored value than transactional float. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Shows Early Capitulation—But Not Full Bottom Yet Kendrick’s broader argument is that this trend could have macro consequences well beyond crypto. If stablecoin issuers absorb close to $1 trillion in additional T-bill demand over the next three years, he said, the US Treasury may respond by shifting issuance toward the front end, flattening the yield curve and reinforcing dollar demand. In his telling, that liquidity effect could eventually become a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin. “I think we go down to, let’s say, $50,000 and back to $100,000 by the end of this year and $500,000 by 2030,” Kendrick said. “Ironically, if stablecoins are massive and Genius Act is as it is, the inflow of cash on liquidity and flattening yield curve and all that sort of stuff becomes massively supportive of Bitcoin medium term.” He extended that optimism across other large-cap crypto assets. Kendrick said he sees Ethereum reaching $40,000 and Solana hitting $2,000 by 2030, with Ethereum benefiting from stablecoin and tokenization activity and Solana from ultra-low-cost transaction flows and micropayments. He also projected tokenized real-world assets could grow from roughly $40 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. For now, though, Kendrick’s message was less about chasing momentum than about separating market price from underlying adoption. “Pretty much all the underlying metrics, if you like, have been improving,” he said. “Except for the price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,260. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has climbed back to the top of its current trading range, placing the market at a critical decision point. While a breakout could open the door to further upside, analysts warn that failure to push higher may trigger a sharp rejection. If selling pressure emerges at these highs, Bitcoin could rotate back toward the key support level around $62,800. A Return To The Top Of Its Trading Range Bitcoin moves to its range highs, prompting analyst Lennaert Snyder to issue a cautious update regarding current market conditions. Snyder highlights his trading strategy: avoiding long positions at the top of a range. Since the most logical and high-probability buying opportunities are found at the range lows, entering a long at these elevated levels presents an unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio. Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed Instead of chasing the upward momentum, the current technical setup suggests that a shorting scenario is much more compelling. Snyder is currently tracking three potential paths for today’s price action, each focusing on how Bitcoin reacts to overhead resistance. If Bitcoin begins to drop from its current position and loses the critical market structure level at $69,383, it would signal a shift in momentum. In this case, Snyder intends to enter a short position, targeting the “weak lows” situated around $65,280. Furthermore, there is buy-side liquidity still resting above the current price at $71,200 and $72,846. If Bitcoin pushes higher to “sweep” these pools and trap breakout buyers, Snyder will wait for a bearish Market Structure Break (MSB) to confirm the move. This confirmation would then serve as the entry point to short the asset back down toward the same $65,280 target. Bitcoin Touches Exact Range High At $70,500 In a recent technical update, crypto analyst Zord highlighted that Bitcoin has accurately tapped the Range High at approximately $70,500, a level previously identified in his last market analysis. This precise touch confirms the current range boundaries, placing the asset at a critical inflection point where the next major directional move will likely be decided. Related Reading: Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash The potential for a bullish expansion remains on the table, with Zord noting that a successful breakout from this resistance could finally propel BTC toward a new all-time high or a sweep of the $74,000 level. However, the analyst cautioned that despite the proximity to these highs, a definitive breakout has not yet materialized. Conversely, the risk of a rejection at this overhead resistance carries significant downside implications. If BTC fails to sustain its momentum here, Zord anticipates an immediate retracement back through the Range Mid, ultimately targeting the Range Low situated at $62,800. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing technical warning signs that have caught the attention of market watchers, with one analyst now predicting a dramatic price collapse in the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The analyst noted that a Bitcoin candlestick pattern that previously preceded a devastating crash to below $20,000 has reappeared on the weekly chart, reigniting fears that history may be repeating itself. If it does, it could completely rewrite the narrative of this entire market cycle.  Historical Setup Signals Bitcoin Potential Crash To $19,000 Market analyst Tony Severino has issued a stark warning to Bitcoin investors and holders, sharing a technical analysis on X that draws a chilling comparison between current price action and a previous cycle crash. The analyst has projected that Bitcoin could decline as low as $19,000 in this bear market.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin $200,000 Target Remains Open, But There’s A More Realistic Target The chart shared by Severino places two Bitcoin weekly candlestick patterns side by side, revealing a near-identical structural setup between the current market cycle and a previous bear phase. The left panel shows Bitcoin’s recent trajectory from late 2025 to early 2026, while the right panel displays a historical period that ultimately saw prices collapse below $20,000.  Severino expressed his surprise at the chart patterns, noting that it was “absolutely wild” how similar the candlestick structures are between the two periods. He added that even the technical indicators are “almost exactly the same.”  Both chart panels feature a prominent rectangular consolidation zone followed by a pink-highlighted rebound area. The visual symmetry between the two timeframes underpins the analyst’s bearish thesis, suggesting that the current rebound around the pink zone could be short-lived, followed by a potential crash below $19,000 if historical trends repeat.  Notably, the analyst’s bearish forecast drew skepticism from some members of the crypto community. One member argued that a drop to such levels would not simply represent a routine cycle correction, but the largest retracement in Bitcoin’s history. Severino, however, stood firmly on his analysis and forecast, stating that a 74% correction was entirely possible and even normal within Bitcoin’s historical framework. Not backing down, he insisted again that the market may still have significant downside to navigate before any meaningful bottom is established.   Update On BTC’s Price Action The Bitcoin price has recovered again from its previous level, trading back above $70,000. Last week, the cryptocurrency crashed to as low as $63,000 amid significant volatility and shifts in market sentiment.   Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed However, CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin has gained over 4.8% in the last 24 hours, with its daily trading volume up by more than 23.4%. The sudden price increase has been attributed to sustained inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin could be on track for a massive long-term rally if one of the most interesting valuation models in the crypto industry is still valid. According to pseudonymous analyst PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving cycle between 2024 and 2028.  The bold projection comes even as Bitcoin is showing no signs of trading at that level in recent days, but recent price action in the past 24 hours has seen it reclaiming the $70,000 price level. Here’s When Bitcoin Will Reach $500,000 PlanB’s projection for Bitcoin is not that the cryptocurrency’s price action instantly jumps to $50,000, but that the entire post-halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around that level if the Stock-to-Flow framework continues to play out as predicted. That is a much more aggressive call than simply predicting a cycle top, because an average of $500,000 would imply that Bitcoin would eventually spend meaningful time well above that price level at some stage of the cycle.  Related Reading: Why Did Bitcoin Price Crash To $67,000, And Ethereum Price Fell Below $2,000? The current Bitcoin price setup is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued at today’s levels or whether the S2F model has finally broken down for good. The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this prediction of a $500,000 price tag for Bitcoin. It overlays Bitcoin’s price history with the 200-week moving average, realized cost price, RSI coloring, and a staircase-like Stock-to-Flow path. The dotted S2F path for the 2024-2028 halving window rises to around $500,000 in 2027. Bitcoin S2F Model. Source: Plan B On X What’s Going On With Bitcoin? Bitcoin has spent the past week swinging between recovery and pressure, a stretch that saw the asset trade above $73,000 on March 5 before falling back toward the mid-$60,000s and then rebounding again above $70,000 at the time of writing. That uncertain context of price action is what makes PlanB’s latest Stock-to-Flow price prediction stand out, because it takes strong conviction to predict an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Expert Trader Shows ‘Simple Math’ To Calculate The Bitcoin Price Bottom The recent price action places Bitcoin just above two long-watched structural supports: the realized cost price and the 200-week moving average. Both of these supports are also visible in PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model chart shared above. That does not automatically prove a six-figure or seven-figure breakout is next, but it does support the view that the entire cycle structure has not fully collapsed. As it stands, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses are holding at a loss, with the majority being short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury firms. However, many analysts have proposed that Bitcoin’s correction is yet to find a bottom, despite it being down by over 45% from its October 2025 peak.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Merlijn has revealed that Bitcoin has just re-entered the DCA zone, indicating it’s a good time to buy BTC. The leading crypto is already staging another rebound, rising to the psychological $70,000, which has so far proved to be a major resistance level.  Bitcoin Reenters DCA Zone As Price Eyes Another Rally In an X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has just entered the DCA zone on the rainbow chart and that BTC is now back in the DCA zone. He noted that a massive rally has followed every time this has happened. At the same time, this is when retail investors have panicked and sold. The analyst added that this chart has never been wrong.  Related Reading: Bitcoin At The Bottom? The 23-Month Cycle That Has Never Failed In another X post, Merlijn stated that Bitcoin has reached a critical level, especially as it continues to trade within a tight range between $60,000 and $70,000. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could rally above $120,000 if it holds this support level. However, there is the possibility of a larger decline if it fails to hold this current range.  The analyst also revealed that Bitcoin is mirroring the 2021 top exactly with the same sequence, lower highs, and the same structure. He noted that 2021 ended with one final flush before the recovery. Merlijn said the $60,000 level is the last line of defense, and a hold above it would mean buyers are taking control. However, a drop below this level would put liquidity clusters below as the next targets.  Bitcoin saw a violent recovery following the final flush below, and the analyst is confident that this time won’t be different. Crypto analysts like Benjamin Cowen have predicted that BTC could recover by the second half of this year as part of the 4-year cycle.  Peter Brandt Predicts A Breakout For BTC Veteran trader Peter Brandt has predicted that Bitcoin could break out to the upside. In an X post, he said, alluding to BTC’s daily and weekly charts, that “the Big Banana is forming a Little Banana — and it indicates there is about to be a Banana Split.” His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could rally to $82,500 by April.  Related Reading: Samson Mow Calls Bitcoin ‘Exponential Gold’, Predicts What Will Happen In the long term, Brandt predicted that Bitcoin could rally to $120,000 and possibly $280,000. His prediction comes just days after he admitted that BTC may be in the midst of a bullish reversal. The veteran trader said that he viewed Bitcoin’s rally to $74,000 back then as potentially a significant change in price behavior since the October top last year.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $69,900, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of stabilization after its pullback from $74,000, but Glassnode says the recovery still lacks the ingredients of a decisive bullish turn. In its March 9 Weekly Market Pulse, the analytics firm described a market that is improving at the margins even as spot participation, capital flows and broader conviction remain subdued. Glassnode’s overview is cautiously constructive, but only up to a point. The firm wrote, “ETF activity remains a relative area of strength. Net inflows accelerated and trading volumes picked up.” In the same breath, though, it stressed that “overall, conditions are stabilizing” while “capital flows remain soft,” a framing that captures the report’s central tension: some internals are healing, but the market still looks fragile rather than fully re-energized. Glassnode Sees Bitcoin Market Stabilizing That fragility is most visible in spot markets. Glassnode said the 14-day RSI rose from 45.2 to 47.7, a modest improvement in momentum that points to firmer buyer activity without suggesting the move is overheated. But the more important spot signals moved the other way. Spot CVD fell from negative $84.4 million to negative $97.6 million, indicating heavier sell-side pressure from aggressive traders, while spot volume dropped from $9.8 billion to $9.1 billion. The report said participants are showing less urgency as they wait for stronger directional cues, leaving sellers with an outsized role in price discovery. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory Derivatives paint a more complicated picture. Futures open interest climbed 5.1% to $29.4 billion, showing leverage and speculative engagement are rebuilding, while perpetual CVD surged 201.7% to $172.6 million, a sign of aggressive buy-side activity in leveraged markets. At the same time, funding flipped sharply lower to negative $391.7K, falling below Glassnode’s statistical low band and signaling stronger demand for short exposure. In other words, leveraged traders are active again, but they are not aligned on direction. Options markets, by contrast, looked less defensive. Open interest rose from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, the volatility spread narrowed from negative 25.78% to negative 17.64%, and 25-delta skew fell from 16.51% to 11.72%. Glassnode’s interpretation was that fear is moderating and demand for downside protection is easing, leaving options positioning more balanced than it was a week earlier. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall To 2019 Levels As ETFs And Corporate Treasuries Accumulate The clearest area of strength remains the US spot ETF complex. Weekly net inflows rose from $776 million to $934 million, while trading volume jumped from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion. But even there, the signal is not cleanly bullish. ETF MVRV dropped from 1.07 to negative 0.53, pushing the average ETF holder underwater. Glassnode said that shift is “consistent with capitulation-like conditions,” suggesting institutional-style demand is still coming in even as existing positioning remains under stress. On-chain data tells a similar story of stabilization without renewed heat. Active addresses slipped 2.0% to 649.3K and fee volume fell 5.1% to $170.5K, both signs of a quieter network backdrop, even as transfer volume rose 23.7% to $5.9 billion. Realized cap change improved from negative 2.4% to negative 1.9%, suggesting outflows are easing, but hot capital share fell to 23.3% and remained well below the statistical low band. That points to a market still dominated by older capital, with little evidence yet of fresh speculative churn. Profitability metrics improved modestly, with supply in profit rising from 54.6% to 56.8%, NUPL improving from negative 31.9% to negative 26.7%, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio lifting from negative 0.8 to negative 0.7. That eases some of the pressure built up during the decline. Still, Glassnode’s broader message is hard to miss: Bitcoin’s market structure looks steadier than it did a week ago, but until spot demand returns in force, the rebound remains more tentative than convincing. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,755. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The 2022 Bitcoin crash has been one for the history books, where the price went from $69,000 to $16,000 before hitting a bottom. Being the most recent bear market before the current cycle, there have been a lot of comparisons between the current trend and the previous one. So far, while the Bitcoin price has tried to hold up against the bears, there have been similarities to the 2022 bear market cycle that could suggest a repeat of such a crash. The Similarities That Say Bitcoin Price Might Crash Further A pseudonymous crypto analyst who goes by the name Sherlock on X pointed out multiple similarities that have popped up on the Bitcoin price chart that could suggest a repeat of the 2022 cycle. The first of these was the weekly trendline break that happened after the initial wave of declines. Once this was broken, the floodgates were opened for the bears. Related Reading: Analysts Predict Conservative XRP Price If It Follows 2017 Run Next on the list is that Bitcoin has recorded multiple red weekly candles. Then came a relief bounce that led to consolidation in the middle of this trend, as shown by the most recent bounce toward $74,000. This green candle pushed the price toward the next resistance. However, bulls were ultimately rejected from this level, leading to an impulsive break below the trend low. The last of the events that took place on the chart is the formation of the upper wick candle. Once this was completed and the price was rejected from this level, the next breakdown saw the Bitcoin price crash from $30,000 to $17,500 before the next relief, a 40% price decline. Presently, the completion of the upper wick candle is the only thing left for the Bitcoin price. Sherlock confirms that the digital asset is actually printing the upper wick candle. If this completes, then it could lead to the same breakdown that was seen back in 2022. Related Reading: XRP Bull Flag Breakout After 8-Month Consolidation To Send Price To $11 A repeat of this 40% breakdown from the current level would put the Bitcoin price back into the $35,000 territory. Following through to the end of where the last bear market bottom was established, it would mean falling as low as $30,000 before the sellers are exhausted. Interestingly, though, this was the last leg down that led to the end of the 2022 bear market. In the next few months that followed, there was a rapid recovery, and in the year following the bottom, the Bitcoin price would go on to hit new all-time highs. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s rally back to the mid-$73,000 region did not last long as the leading cryptocurrency’s price action reversed as the week came to a close and fell back around $67,000 after momentarily regaining momentum last week, pulling Ethereum down with it till the ETH price also lost the $2,000 price level.  However, the pullback of these leading cryptocurrencies is the product of a few forces colliding at once: a war nobody fully priced in and institutions quietly heading for the exits. Here is what happened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: From Boosting Rally To Draining Liquidity One of the clearest reasons for Bitcoin’s reversal is that the same ETF complex that helped lift the price early in the week suddenly turned into a source of pressure. SoSoValue data show that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted strong inflows at the start of the week, including about $458.19 million on March 2, $225.15 million on March 3, and $461.77 million on March 4.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 That stretch helped Bitcoin climb as high as roughly $74,051 intraday on March 4, but the tone changed quickly after that. By March 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs had flipped to a net outflow of about $227.83 million, and on March 6, the outflow worsened to roughly $348.83 million, showing that institutional demand softened just as Bitcoin was testing resistance near the mid-$70,000s. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue Unsurprisingly, Ethereum also saw its own exchange-traded funds flows deteriorate in tandem with Bitcoin. SoSoValue’s data show US Spot Ethereum ETFs started the week on firmer footing, with $38.69 million in net inflows on March 2, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at about $26.51 million. However, by the second half of the week, that demand had faded massively.  Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded about $90.94 million in net outflows on March 5 and another $82.85 million in net outflows on March 6, with Fidelity’s FETH alone accounting for roughly $67.57 million of the March 6 withdrawal. Spot Ethereum ETFs. Source: SoSoValue Profit-Taking And Global Risk Aversion The final piece is the macro backdrop. The bounce to $73,000 to $74,000 invited short-term traders to lock in gains, especially after Bitcoin ran into a clear resistance band and failed to push through decisively. On-chain data shows that more than 27,000 BTC in profit were sent to exchanges by short-term holders within 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is However, investors are not dealing with only crypto-related concerns. Financial markets are still pricing in the conflicts in the Middle East. Iran responded to US-Israel attacks by not only firing retaliatory strikes but also effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That closure is what truly rattled markets. Once Bitcoin lost altitude, Ethereum followed with even more force. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,500. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading at $1,975. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

A crypto market analyst has outlined what he describes as a straightforward mathematical method that helped identify the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous bear market. By focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase. Simple Math That Identified The Bitcoin Price Bear Market Bottom In an X post shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited a prediction he made in December 2022 regarding Bitcoin’s bear market low. While he acknowledged that the timing of the call was slightly off by a few months, he stated that the price target itself proved accurate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Map Predicts The Next Targets To Watch Out For The analysis referenced Bitcoin’s bear market bottom around the $15,000 region in late 2022, which the analyst had previously projected using this framework. His approach centers on macro Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, with particular focus on the 1.618 Fibonacci level positioned near $62,084. The chart accompanying the explanation highlights how Bitcoin historically reacts to this macro level. During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and sustain price action above the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to the second and fourth quarter candles of 2021, both of which were rejected at that same zone. These repeated rejections signaled strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the significance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, the analyst argues that long-term Fibonacci mathematics can help identify both extreme lows and potential expansion targets. Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with the 1.618 Fibonacci level has shifted from resistance to support. After breaking above the $62,084 region on the quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close below the level since the breakout. The chart shows two notable retests following the move. In the second and third quarters afterward, Bitcoin briefly tested the level but managed to hold above it on a closing basis. One quarterly wick even dipped below $50,000 before reclaiming the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is again trading above the same macro Fibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a bullish quarterly retest. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The projection drawn on the chart extends toward the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2.618, which sits near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro target if the structure holds. The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting price wicks could stretch toward the $500,000 region during the expansion phase. However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly wicks remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with that caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation pattern centered on Bitcoin holding the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Coinvo has explained why Bitcoin may be close to a bottom, which could spark a rally to new highs. This comes as BTC continues to face downside pressure due to the rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.  Why Bitcoin May Soon Reach A Bear Market Bottom In an X post, Coinvo alluded to the Bitcoin monthly chart, noting that the leading crypto has hit its bear market at exactly 23 months after the all-time high (ATH) in every single cycle. BTC is currently sitting at 23 months right now, which the analyst noted is a sign to buy more Bitcoin, as this pattern has “never failed.” Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin $200,000 Target Remains Open, But There’s A More Realistic Target The analyst also predicted that Bitcoin could see a massive expansion once it bottoms, rallying to as high as $150,000. This means that BTC could still surpass its current ATH of $126,000, which it recorded in October last year. Meanwhile, in another X post, Coinvo revealed that Bitcoin is replicating the exact same bull market pattern that gold did in the 70s. He added that this pattern has never failed, suggesting BTC could soon see a bullish reversal.  Bitcoin is currently facing downside pressure as the U.S-Iran war continues to escalate. The war has sent oil prices as high as $115 today, sparking concerns that this could drive inflation higher. However, Coinvo indicated that the rising oil prices may not be bearish for BTC. In an X post, he stated that most people think that rising oil prices are bearish for the leading because of inflation, but history says the opposite. This came as he revealed that BTC’s secret bull-run signal has just flashed for the fourth time in history.  Bull Trap May Be Forming For BTC Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo warned that a bull trap is forming for Bitcoin, while also indicating that a bottom isn’t in yet. He stated that BTC is still “solidly” in the middle of its bear market through a lens of long-range liquidity. The analyst also noted that after rapid downward flushes like the market has seen, BTC tends to trade sideways and then mount a rally, testing resistance.  Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Willy Woo also revealed that current conditions are setting up a Bitcoin rally to test the mid-$80,000 range, which is the cost basis for short-term investors. This rally looks more likely, especially considering that BTC sold off fast in the early bear market. The analyst highlighted that investor flows have been in consistent recovery since mid-February, which could spark this rebound to $80,000. He added that expected volatility in equities is hinting at a switch to risk-on in the coming weeks.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. Darkfost is looking at the distribution of supply across Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs, a way of tracking how much coin supply is sitting above or below cost basis. In his reading, that metric has reached a zone that has historically marked the boundary between advancing bull markets and broader corrections. “Roughly one out of two investors is currently at a loss. More precisely, this refers to the supply held within each UTXO on Bitcoin. At the moment, 43% of that supply is in loss,” he wrote on X. He added that “historically, as the histogram shows, we usually see around 75% of the supply in profit,” describing that level as a “rough boundary between a bull trend and a market correction.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Must Not Drop Below $63,700, Analyst Warns That framing is central to the thesis. When the share of supply in profit rises back above roughly 75%, Darkfost said, bull trends have typically “confirmed and accelerated.” When more supply starts falling into loss, the opposite tends to happen: corrections deepen, confidence weakens and the market begins to resemble prior bear-market structures. With Bitcoin now at 57% supply in profit, he said conditions look “closer to those seen during deep bear market phases.” Still, he did not present the current setup as a one-way collapse. Darkfost said the market is showing signs of stabilization, which he linked to the current consolidation phase. But he also warned that the process may not be finished. “It is still possible that the market moves lower in order to shake out LTHs further and push the share of supply in loss toward around 45%, a level that has been reached during previous bear markets,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money On The Move: Exchange Whale Ratio Spikes To 0.6 Macro Backdrop Weighs On Bitcoin His second chart ties that on-chain deterioration to a macro backdrop that has become less supportive for risk assets. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, Darkfost argued, oil’s rally has added another layer of pressure to Bitcoin. “Since the beginning of the year, oil has gained more than 60%, a dramatic increase reflecting market concerns over the geopolitical situation,” he wrote. “This is not surprising, given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea. Any incident that blocks the strait or disrupts transit therefore has an immediate impact on oil prices.” He extended that argument beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices, he said, feed directly into inflation expectations and broader financial-market stress, a combination that has historically not favored speculative assets. “For a volatile and risky asset like Bitcoin, this type of environment is unfavorable,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases. These moments also signal geopolitical tensions, which are not conducive to risk-taking or exposure to more speculative assets.” Taken together, the two charts sketch a market that is not yet definitively in a bear trend but is drifting toward a zone where that label becomes harder to dismiss. The immediate question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild the share of supply back into profit and reclaim the historical 75% threshold, or whether macro stress and further long-term-holder selling push the market deeper into loss territory first. At press time, BTC traded at $67,730. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening momentum as it struggles to regain higher ground, placing the market at a critical turning point. The $66,000 level has now emerged as a key support zone that could determine the next major move. Holding above it may give bulls a chance to spark a recovery, while a decisive break below could open the door for a deeper decline. Bitcoin Struggles Below Blue Box Resistance As Buyers Stay Quiet Bitcoin continues to trade below the blue box resistance, signaling that the market has yet to regain strong bullish momentum. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, buyers failed to step in at the $69,407 level that had been closely monitored on the 4-hour timeframe. Although selling pressure pushed the price lower, the pace of the decline has started to slow in the current region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Uray explained that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $66,187 level, the possibility of another attempt toward the blue box resistance remains on the table. A decisive breakout above the $69,407 resistance, especially with strong high-volume candles, could open the door for a much larger upward move.  Based on the principle of equal waves, such a breakout scenario could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. A daily close above $98,200 would also establish a new high peak in the context of the latest wave structure on the daily chart, increasing the chances of a sustained uptrend. However, caution may be required if the price approaches the $107,000–$109,000 region, as a bearish Libra formation could develop within that zone. Failure to close above the previous peak could activate the pattern and trigger a renewed downward move. Meanwhile, the $66,187 level remains a key support to watch on the 4-hour chart. Holding above it would keep bullish expectations intact, while a close below it may lead to a retest of $62,433. If the decline deepens further and resistance levels continue to cap upward attempts, the next major support targets are $62,433, $55,230, and $47,256. BTC Loses $70,000 Support As Bearish Momentum Builds Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin was unable to maintain its position above the $70,000 level and eventually closed below it. Holding above that zone was previously highlighted as crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Failure to defend the $70,000 mark suggests that sellers have regained control of the market. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Timeline For When A New Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin This Year The analyst further explained that bearish pressure may continue unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and break above the $74,000 level. As long as the price remains below that threshold, momentum favors the downside, with a potential move toward the $61,000 region or even lower levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s initial break above the 6-figure price point back in 2024, and then the eventual move to an all-time high of $126,000, has fueled the expectations of higher price points. Even now, as the price continues to trend below $100,000, it has done little to erase the bullish momentum surrounding the cryptocurrency, especially in the long term. As a result, predictions continue to come out that the Bitcoin price will eventually trade at 6-figures again, and eventually, new all-time highs. Mapping The Bitcoin Price Recovery In a post on the TradingView website, Setupsfx points out an interesting thing about the Bitcoin price chart and why this is bullish for the digital asset. After the Bitcoin price reclaimed $70,000 earlier in the week, it set the tone for another recovery trend, and the analyst suggests that this means that the price can still climb to $200,000. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price At $100 Is Not Insane If You Understand This The analysis highlights that, unlike before, the break above $72,000 came with strong bullish volume. What this simply means is that there is a lot of demand right now for the cryptocurrency, and that is what is driving the current uptrend. If this holds, then the price is likely to continue upward rather than experience another crash. Following the current trend, the analysis sets the first major Bitcoin target at the $104,000 level. This is important because there is a liquidity void sitting in this area. This means that there could be a stop to the uptrend at this level, being a major point of resistance. However, all hope is not lost at this point because it simply shows how important it is to break this resistance. Once this breaks, it sets the cryptocurrency on the path to the next major target, which lies at $124,000. Reaching $124,000 would be momentous for the Bitcoin price as this is just below its current all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Morning Doji Star Shows Bullish Reversal That Will Send Price To $0.8 The final target for this analysis actually lies at the $134,000 level, which could deem the uptrend complete. As for the rally to $200,000, the analyst explains that this is still possible, despite many saying that it is unrealistic. Mainly, the $200,000 target is set for the long-term view of the cryptocurrency. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year.  Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market.  In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning.  Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted.  Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase  In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges.  Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated.  Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows.  Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode.  Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level.  Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend.  Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s latest rebound to $74,050 on Thursday is running into immediate selling pressure as short-term holders move coins to exchanges in large volumes, suggesting the market’s most reactive cohort remains unconvinced by the recovery. On-chain data shared by CryptoQuant contributors indicates that traders who bought Bitcoin only weeks ago are now locking in gains rather than holding through the bounce, creating a fresh pocket of supply just as the market attempts to stabilize. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Cash In According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, more than 27,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges by short-term holders (STHs) over the past 24 hours, one of the largest spikes recorded in recent months. The metric tracks coins moved to exchanges by investors who are currently in profit, often interpreted as a precursor to potential selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suppressed By Shadow Banking Rehypothecation, Saylor Says “Despite the slight recovery of Bitcoin, STHs (Short Term Holders) do not seem convinced and prefer to take profits quickly,” Darkfost wrote. “Over the past 24 hours, STHs have sent more than 27,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, which ranks among the highest levels observed in recent months.” The dynamic appears concentrated among the most recent buyers. According to the analysis, the only cohort currently able to realize meaningful gains consists of investors who accumulated Bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with a realized price near $68,000. That positioning places them directly in the money after Bitcoin’s latest bounce toward the low-$70,000 range, creating a natural incentive to exit positions quickly. “STH are known for being reactive and emotionally driven, especially the youngest cohorts,” Darkfost noted. “Current news flow and macroeconomic projections remain rather negative in the short term, which makes this behavior relatively understandable and, in this case, fairly rational.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads For now, that behavior translates into near-term supply. “This represents selling pressure to monitor, as STH do not yet appear willing to hold their positions for longer,” he added. Repeated Pattern Around Range Highs Separate market structure analysis points to another pattern that may be reinforcing the selling. CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn highlighted a recurring technical setup that has played out multiple times in recent months: brief breakouts above key resistance levels followed by swift reversals. “Deviations above the Range High keep getting sold,” Maartunn wrote. “Over the last few months, BTC has shown the same pattern three times: break above the range high, short-lived deviation, sharp move lower.” The most recent instance occurred as Bitcoin briefly pushed above a range ceiling near $71,000 before stalling. “The latest deviation just occurred around $71K,” he noted. “If history repeats, this level may again act as a trap for late longs.” The pattern was visible in early-October 2025 and mid-January 2026. Breakouts above local range highs were followed by rapid pullbacks, reinforcing the idea that liquidity above resistance levels has been used primarily as an exit point for sellers. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,127. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent break above $70,000 is leading to questions of whether this is the start of a new impulsive leg higher or just another stop in a longer bottoming process. Crypto analyst CrypFlow, posting on X, laid out a technical case for why Bitcoin may be in the early stages of forming a major cycle bottom and why October 2026 could mark the launchpad for the next full-scale bull run. The analysis is based on multi-year trendlines, cycle behavior, and the Stochastic RSI indicator. Bitcoin Is Respecting Trendline That Has Held Since 2018 Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the monthly timeframe shows that the leading cryptocurrency’s price action is still respecting a multi-year trendline that has quietly shaped Bitcoin’s biggest cycle lows. That ascending trendline connects the 2018 cycle bottom with the 2022 bottom and now appears to be acting as support again in 2026. Bitcoin’s current position is now sitting right on top of that structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Flashed Death Cross That Has Led To Previous Bottoms, But What’s The Target? CrypFlow also pointed to a major horizontal zone that previously acted as resistance around the 2021 cycle top. That old ceiling around $69,000 is now being tested as support in the current price action. That kind of role reversal is very important for Bitcoin’s price action, because it shows the cryptocurrency may be trying to build a base at the intersection of that old resistance band and the rising trendline. If Bitcoin manages to stay above the current zone near $69,000 without falling to the $50,000 region, it would mirror the structure seen at the 2022 bottom. That low formed at a similar confluence where the rising trendline met the previous cycle’s resistance from the 2017 peak. Timeline For A New Bull Run Price levels get all the attention. Time gets almost none, and according to CrypFlow, that is precisely where most people are getting this cycle wrong. The analyst pointed to the Stochastic RSI to track how long this indicator has spent below the zero line during each major bear market cycle, and the historical pattern is striking in its consistency.  Related Reading: Analyst Says It’s Time For Bitcoin, But What’s Important About $58,000? In the 2018/2019 cycle, the Stochastic RSI spent approximately 365 days below zero before Bitcoin mounted its real reversal and the next bull market began. The same held true in the 2022/2023 bear market cycle, where Bitcoin spent roughly one full year below zero before the sustained recovery kicked in. This cycle, however, Bitcoin’s Stochastic RSI has only been below zero for around 120 days. Putting it all together, this opens up a scenario where Bitcoin forms a double bottom later this year, likely around October 2026, before the next major bull run begins. This doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is about to crash further. What it does suggest, according to CrypFlow, is that the price action hasn’t completed the slow, grinding work that true cycle bottoms are built on. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing where the next major price reactions could occur. A liquidation map tracking leverage positions on the Binance BTC/USDT perpetual market highlights clusters of highly leveraged trades positioned above the current market price. This arrangement provides clues about how the next Bitcoin price move could unfold, how much short traders can be liquidated in the next sweep, and what could probably happen after. Massive Short Liquidation Wall Sits Around $71,800 Bitcoin has spent the past 24 to 48 hours trading above $70,000, offering an early glimpse into how price action may unfold for the leading cryptocurrency throughout March. Interestingly, technical analysis of the BTC liquidation heatmap on Binance, which was posted on X by crypto analyst Sherlock, shows clusters of highly leveraged trades positioned just above the current market price. This is notable to watch, as clusters often influence price direction because markets tend to move toward zones where large volumes of forced liquidations can occur. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The most prominent liquidity target revealed by the chart is around $71,800, where a dense concentration of short liquidations has formed. This area is dominated by extremely high leverage positions, particularly 50x and 100x leverage, which shows that many Bitcoin traders are heavily positioned on the assumption that Bitcoin will fail to reclaim above $72,000. As shown in the Coinglass liquidation chart below, the vertical liquidation bars around $71,000 to $72,000 are significantly larger compared to surrounding levels. This shows a buildup of short positions that would be forced to buy back Bitcoin if the market rises into that zone. A move to that level could therefore lead to a chain reaction of liquidations, which in turn would contribute to a move upward as short positions are closed. BTC/USDT Liquidation Map. Source: @Sherlockwhale On X What Happens After The Liquidity Sweep? After the $71,800 level, the structure of the liquidation map changes noticeably. The bars on the chart become thinner across the $72,000 to $76,000 range, and the cumulative liquidation curve flattens. This means that once the initial wave of short liquidations is triggered, there may not be enough additional liquidation fuel to sustain a prolonged rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 According to Sherlock, that forced buying from liquidated shorts could carry Bitcoin from $71,800 to $75,000, but extending the rally beyond that point would need real buyers and organic demand. Not forced buying.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,500. The leading cryptocurrency faced sustained downward pressure throughout most of February, although signs of gradual spot accumulation are beginning to appear, and this could support a steady rally in March. If new buyers fail to support the price after liquidity at $76,000 is taken, then the price could quickly lose upward momentum. In that case, the price could fall straight back below $60,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s latest rally has injected fresh optimism into the market, but the analyst believes the move may be setting the stage for a critical turning point rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. After weeks of volatility and uneven momentum, BTC has climbed toward key resistance levels, prompting debate over whether the current surge reflects strength or a temporary rebound within a broader market structure. Is Bitcoin Repeating A Classic Market Structure Pattern? The reason Bitcoin is simply rallying at the current range is to set what is likely the macro lower high. Crypto analyst Ardi pointed out on X that this area was the longest consolidation range of the entire 2021-2025 bull run, which lasted roughly 259 days between March and November 2024. During that extended sideways phase, more value was transacted, more positions were built, and more liquidity was exchanged in that range than at any other level on the chart over the four-year cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shift: 212,000 BTC Moves Into Long-Term Holder Hands, Price Nearing A Bounce? When the price pulls back into a zone with that kind of history where months of market participants have occurred, reactions are rarely insignificant. The liquidity created during nearly nine months of accumulation does not simply disappear once the market moves higher. Instead, all the liquidity is sitting in that area. From a structural perspective, Ardi argues that this region was always the most logical destination for a macro pullback, followed by a short-term rally. This zone is where the market built its foundation for BTC to surge toward the $126,000 region, marking it a key technical level that the market would not easily break through on its first attempt. How Consolidation Could Prepare The Next Expansion The market may be misreading the current setup of Bitcoin, and many traders expect price action to follow a pattern similar to the 2022 downturn. Analyst Bobby A has highlighted that the true “pain trade” could unfold in the opposite direction. Instead of dropping lower, BTC could stage a strong leg upward and quickly push the price back toward the low six-figure region. Such a move would leave a large portion of the market sidelined and waiting for lower prices that will never arrive. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Bobby A suggested that from the surge, BTC could transition into a multi-month consolidation phase, ranging between $80,000 and $100,000. This kind of sideways structure would allow momentum to reset while sentiment remains divided. However, by the time the consolidation range matures, many traders might once again position themselves for a major breakdown below the January lows, which may ultimately never materialize. Regardless of how the path unfolds, there is a strong possibility that BTC’s next upward move may have already begun. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger is pushing back on a comparison that has taken hold across desks since strikes involving Iran began: that markets are replaying the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, with crypto and Bitcoin in particular tracing an uncomfortably familiar pattern. Yes, the setups rhyme, Krüger wrote in a March 4 Substack note. But he argues the analogy breaks where it matters for Bitcoin: monetary policy and the persistence of the energy shock. “Markets are panicking. Everyone sees 2022 again. The chart setups look almost identical and the energy shock is real,” he wrote. “But the comparison falls apart under scrutiny. The macro is different, and the oil disruption is transitory.” What Is Crucial For Bitcoin Now Krüger’s starting point is historical rather than crypto-specific: wars and kinetic conflicts have often created “buying opportunities,” even when the initial impulse is risk-off. The reason 2022 became so toxic for risk, he says, wasn’t the invasion itself, it was what came after. In 2022, Bitcoin and overall risk assets bottomed on the day Russia invaded Ukraine (Feb. 24), then bounced hard, then rolled over by late March as markets resumed sliding. The war was the catalyst, not the engine. The engine was a Federal Reserve forced into an aggressive hiking cycle with inflation already running hot, and an oil spike that worsened the inflation problem. Krüger’s core claim is that 2026 does not have the same policy backdrop. In 2022, the Fed was “behind the curve” with year-over-year inflation at 7.9% and the real Fed Funds rate around -7.5% when war broke out. Today, he says the Fed is in “wait-and-see mode,” with inflation trending lower and real rates around +1.2%. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin He frames the policy asymmetry in blunt terms: “Even if the oil spike pushes headline inflation temporarily higher, the Fed has room to look through it. At +1.2% real rates, they don’t need to tighten into a supply shock. In 2022 they had no choice — at -7.5% they were catastrophically behind. That’s the difference that matters for risk assets.” Krüger points to recent Fed communication as consistent with that stance. John Williams said oil would affect the “near-term inflation outlook” but that persistence mattered: “code for: we’re not moving unless this lasts,” Krüger wrote, while noting the US is less oil-dependent than past decades. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also argued the US is “in a very different position than when Russia invaded Ukraine.” Since the strikes began, Krüger noted, four Fed officials have spoken publicly without changing their outlook; Williams described the market reaction as “muted,” Neel Kashkari said it’s “too soon to know” and still sees one to two cuts this year if inflation cools, and hawk Beth Hammack called policy “neutral” while urging an extended pause. The second pillar of Krüger’s argument is that the oil disruption in 2026 is more likely to be temporary than the structural break of 2022. Then, Europe lost access to roughly 4.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude and refined products and sanctions made that disruption effectively permanent; Brent surged near $130 on March 8 and didn’t sustainably break below $90 until late August. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads This time, he argues, Iran’s own barrels are not the key variable. Iran produced roughly 3.3 million bpd and exported about 1.9 million bpd before the strikes, mostly to China through shadow channels at an $11–$12 discount to Brent, with most of its tanker fleet already sanctioned, meaning “additional sanctions on Iran post-war would change nothing.” The market’s focus, instead, is the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 14 million bpd transits — about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and where traffic has “dropped almost to a standstill.” Krüger says the futures curve is doing the real talking. In 2022, the front month repriced about +50% and the tenth contract +29%, signaling a long repair job. In 2026, he estimates the front month is up +32% but the tenth contract only +12%, “despite a shock affecting 4.4x more barrels,” implying traders see an expiration date to the disruption rather than a rewiring of supply chains. Tail Risk Is The Curve’s “Tell” Krüger is explicit about what could turn a “transitory” shock into a 2022-style regime shift: direct, repeated hits that take refining capacity or LNG offline for months. Iran has already struck Ras Tanura, Fujairah, and Qatari LNG facilities, he wrote, mostly with debris from intercepted drones but he sees an escalation pattern toward energy infrastructure, with “tens of thousands of drones in reserve.” “If direct hits start landing on refining capacity — SAMREF, Jebel Ali, Jubail — that is lost production that does not come back with a ceasefire. Refineries take months to repair,” he wrote. “And the risk is no longer limited to oil. This is becoming a products and gas crisis, not just a crude problem.” Krüger added that QatarEnergy has shut down LNG output at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing roughly a fifth of global LNG export capacity. For Bitcoin, the takeaway is less about pattern-matching the chart and more about watching whether the macro “off-switch” remains credible. Krüger’s rule of thumb is simple: if the back end of the curve starts repricing, for example, if that tenth contract moves from roughly +12% toward +25%, the market is signaling the shock is turning structural. “But as of today,” he wrote, “the curve hasn’t blinked. Don’t confuse a transitory geopolitical shock (2026) with a major liquidity crisis (2022).” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is consolidating near a crucial support band, with $77,000 emerging as the key level to watch. A breakout above it could signal bullish momentum and a trend reversal, while failure to hold may keep Bitcoin in a corrective phase or push it lower. Bitcoin Re-Approaches Critical High-Timeframe Support After 0.786 Fibonacci Deviation Crypto analyst Luca highlighted that Bitcoin recently dipped below the high-timeframe support range marked in purple, briefly deviating toward the 0.786 Fibonacci point of interest around $65,900. Following that move, the price is now approaching the previously lost high-timeframe support zone, which coincides with the early April 2025 bottoming structure. This region also overlaps with the 3-day Bull Market Support Band, an area that has served as a strong reversal point several times over the past few months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coiling At Key Support — Major Move Brewing Luca explained that this confluence of technical levels is the reason he has not yet reduced his hedge positions. Instead, he prefers to remain cautious until the market provides clearer confirmation of strength. According to Luca, such confirmation would likely come from Bitcoin reclaiming the lost support range or breaking above the Bull Market Support Band. Until that happens, the analyst warns that the current approach to this zone could still result in a rejection, meaning the move might represent a temporary bounce rather than a confirmed recovery. Luca also emphasized that traders should focus more on protecting capital rather than chasing profits at this stage. Only once clear strength appears, and the probability shifts toward a sustained upside continuation, would it make sense to adopt a more aggressive bullish stance. $77,000 Emerges As The Critical Confirmation Level For BTC According to Luca, the key confirmation level he is watching right now sits around $77,000. A decisive breakout above that level would signal stronger market momentum. Thus, Luca plans to gradually scale out of his hedge positions and rotate that capital back into his spot holdings, anticipating a more sustainable move to the upside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Slumps 5%, Bearish Momentum Returns With Force Luca also noted that attempting to squeeze out an extra 10–15% gain at current levels may not be the best risk decision. Instead of aggressively chasing short-term profits, he prefers to wait for a clear confirmation that the market structure is shifting in favor of the bulls. He added that the potential upside could be significantly larger if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the $77,000 level. However, exiting hedge positions too early could expose traders to the risk of a bullish fakeout, where the price briefly moves higher before resuming its downward trend. Because of that possibility, Luca maintains a cautious stance until stronger confirmation appears. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has just flashed a ‘Death Cross,’ a technical signal that has historically preceded major market bottoms. Market analyst CrypFlow, who identified the chart pattern, notes that the current setup is unfolding almost identically to the 2022 bear market cycle. In his analysis, he outlines a potential price target for a Bitcoin bottom and shares what history suggests could come next if the death cross follows the same trajectory as in previous cycles.  Bitcoin Death Cross Signals More Downside CrypFlow shared his foreboding analysis on X, confirming a Death Cross on the three-day BTC chart that had previously signaled bear-market bottoms. The formation comes as Bitcoin faces significant selling pressure and market volatility, with investor sentiment down the drain and geopolitical tensions fueling more fear and panic, pushing holders to exit the market.  Related Reading: Expert Trader Says Bitcoin Surge To $220,000 Is Coming, But This Will Happen First CrypFlow has stated that the current Death Cross formed against a backdrop of Bitcoin trading around $66,200 at the time of the analysis, with the figure well below the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $89,799 and the 200 SMA at $91,226. The massive gap between the price and both moving averages underscores how aggressively the market has deteriorated since Bitcoin’s cycle top above $126,000 in October 2025.  The analyst draws a direct comparison between the current Death Cross and the 2022 bear market cycle, in which an identical Death Cross pattern preceded Bitcoin’s most devastating price crash to a final bottom. In that cycle, CrypFlow noted that the Death Cross formation came after reaching a peak above $66,000.  Once Bitcoin reached this ATH level, it began trending downwards, forming a Death Cross, which eventually led to a final capitulation low one month later. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency experienced a Double Bottom after crashing again in 2023, with this final decline serving as the foundation for the next bull run.  Analyst Shares BTC Bottom Target And Timeline The Death Cross pattern is widely recognized as a bearish warning sign, indicating more pain ahead for Bitcoin. Following the 2022 cycle, when the market bottomed roughly one month after the cross was confirmed, CrypFlow has identified March 29, 2026, as a critical window to watch for Bitcoin’s potential price floor this cycle. He suggests a possible target near $50,000, framing the projected one-month timeframe as a historically informed inflection point rather than a guaranteed outcome.   Related Reading: Analyst Says It’s Time For Bitcoin, But What’s Important About $58,000? CrypFlow has outlined three distinct conditions it intends to monitor as that window approaches. The first is continued price weakness into late March, which could serve as a behavioral confirmation that the current cycle is mirroring past patterns. The second condition the analyst is watching for is evidence of seller exhaustion near the March 29 window.  His third and perhaps most important condition is the reclaiming of key moving averages following any potential bottom. CrypFlow stressed that this reclaim should be viewed as confirmation of a completed bottom. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market liquidity is poised to receive a significant boost as legacy financial giant Morgan Stanley moves toward offering its own BTC ETF option. The entry of such a major Wall Street institution into the BTC ETF space underscores growing confidence in BTC as an investable asset. It marks another major milestone in its march toward mainstream financial integration. How Morgan Stanley’s Entry Could Shift Supply-Demand Dynamics Morgan Stanley has officially entered the Bitcoin ETF race after submitting a new SEC filing for a spot BTC ETF. The filing names Coinbase and the Bank of New York (BNY) Mellon as custodian partners, with Coinbase Custody also playing a key role in safeguarding the underlying BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Leads Crypto Funds’ $1 Billion Rebound To End 5-Week Negative Streak An investor and blockchain researcher known as Anıl on X pointed out that when the first BTC ETFs were initially launched, a significant share of the inflows was effectively absorbing persistent selling pressure from Grayscale Investment. In other words, capital wasn’t entirely new, but BTC exchange was largely rotating from Grayscale’s product into other ETF vehicles. That dynamic had now faded because there is no longer a Grayscale-sized entity continuously offloading large amounts of BTC into the market. Anıl argues that initial inflows into Morgan Stanley’s ETF will represent real demand and fresh liquidity entering the market. Meanwhile, BNY Mellon and Coinbase Custody will serve as the custodians, with one of the providers again being Coinbase, which will also impact Coinbase Premium. Bitwise Channels ETF Momentum Into Developer Support The Bitwise Asset Management has donated $233,000 support open-source developers who help maintain and secure the Bitcoin network. According to Bitwise’s post on X, the contribution is part of the firm’s ongoing pledge to reinvest in the ecosystem through its Bitwise BTC ETF (BITB), which experienced notable growth over the past year. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 When BITB first launched, Bitwise committed to allocating 10% of the ETF’s gross profit annually toward supporting BTC open-source development. With this second annual donation, the firm says it is delivering on that same promise annually and reinvesting BITB’s growth directly back into the ecosystem that powers it. Bitwise emphasized that the funds will go to organizations focused on maintaining and improving the BTC protocol, and the donation will be distributed through three non-profit groups: BitcoinBlick, OpenSats, and the Human Rights Foundation Bitcoin Development Funds. The asset manager highlighted that the contribution is made possible by investors who align with this journey. However, Bitwise has described this donation as both a fulfillment of its commitment and a reflection of the trust placed in it by investors who believe in sustaining the open-source heart of BTC. Furthermore, as BITB continues to expand, so do its contributions to the developer ecosystem. The company described BTC as a transformative technology and said it intends to remain a responsible steward of the incredible ecosystem. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor argued that Bitcoin’s inability to sustain the most aggressive upside forecasts is less about a broken long-term thesis and more about a credit-market bottleneck: a large share of Bitcoin wealth still can’t be financed cleanly inside the traditional banking system, pushing holders toward “shadow” venues where rehypothecation creates effective selling pressure. In a Feb. 27 interview with Coin Stories host Nathalie Brunell, Saylor said the market has matured in ways that naturally damp both upside and downside volatility as derivatives migrate “from offshore to onshore” and regulated US markets grow. But he placed the sharper brake on price in the plumbing of credit. Banks, he argued, are moving slowly to recognize Bitcoin as collateral, and that delay matters when the asset base is large. Saylor framed the current top-of-market structure as roughly “$2 trillion worth of Bitcoin,” with “probably $1.8 trillion held by retail investors or offshore investors” who “cannot access the traditional banking system.” The practical implication, he said, is that Bitcoin holders who want to unlock liquidity face a narrow menu compared with traditional equity portfolios. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads “If I posted $10 million of Apple stock with JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley, I could take a $5 million loan at SOFR plus 50 basis points and I could spend it,” Saylor said. “But you can’t even post $10 million worth of Bitcoin with JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley right now. Therefore, you can’t take a loan. Therefore, you have to go to a shadow banking system. You have to go offshore.” That constraint, he argued, forces holders into behavior that mechanically caps upside. The “safe way” to monetize is simply to sell, which “damps the upside.” The next option is borrowing from a small pool of crypto lenders that don’t rehypothecate collateral, but Saylor described that market as both expensive and shallow—“a few billion dollars probably”—with rates he characterized as closer to “SOFR plus 400” or “plus 500 basis points,” rather than traditional prime-style spreads. He pointed to a newer channel, banks extending credit against spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), but described it as early, limited, and still costly versus conventional secured lending. The most controversial pathway, Saylor said, is where the cheapest funding appears: counterparties offering low-rate Bitcoin-backed credit in exchange for control of the collateral. “I’ve had people offer me Bitcoin-backed credit at 1% or 0%,” he said, before emphasizing the trade-off. “There’s always the catch […] they want me to transfer the Bitcoin to them so they can rehypothecate it.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surges Back Above $71,000: Key Reasons Explained Saylor then tied rehypothecation directly to spot-market suppression, arguing that collateral handed to intermediaries can be effectively “sold” multiple times through reuse. “So, if you have $10 million […] you can get a 3 or 4% loan, but then it gets rehypothecated,” he said. “So, your $10 million of Bitcoin gets sold once, gets sold twice, gets sold three times […] You might actually create $30 or $40 million worth of selling because the Bitcoin that you posted […] rehypothecated it three times.” Michael Saylor: Shadow banking “rehypothecation” suppresses Bitcoin price On February 27, 2026, in an interview with Natalie Brunell, Michael Saylor discussed why Bitcoin failed to surpass $126,000. He suggested that the exclusion of Bitcoin from traditional banks like JP… pic.twitter.com/ODpOEvhi2j — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 4, 2026 In his view, the missing piece is a large, regulated, non-rehypothecating credit system for Bitcoin—one that looks more like mainstream securities financing. “What’s holding down the price? I think what holds down the price of the asset is the lack of a fully formed nonrehypothecating credit system,” he said, adding that rehypothecation “damps the vol” and can amplify moves on both sides through leveraged positioning. Saylor’s bottom line was timing, not thesis: if banks take “four years, 5 years, 6 years” to “bank it” in the full sense, then Bitcoin’s price discovery will continue to be shaped by a shadow-credit workaround that can manufacture synthetic supply. If and when conventional credit rails mature around Bitcoin collateral without aggressive rehypothecation, he suggested, the market may rely less on forced selling and more on ordinary secured borrowing, potentially changing the ceiling on upside cycles. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $72,236. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis, outlining reasons why the Bitcoin price has not yet reached a cycle bottom. Using a charting framework called the Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycles Theory, the analyst argues that while a short-term bounce is currently playing out, the broader bear market still has significant time and more downsides ahead before reaching a final price floor.  Why The Bitcoin Price Has Not Hit A Bottom Yet According to market expert Crypto Con on X, the recent bounce that saw Bitcoin surge above $71,000 after its first major low under $64,000 is a normal reaction and does not indicate that the Bitcoin bear market has ended. The analyst stated that everything is unfolding exactly as expected, both in timing and price, in line with the Halving Cycles Theory. He further noted that the price sitting precisely at the first low of the Bear Bands indicator actually reinforces his bearish case for Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Sharing a detailed price chart, Crypto Con draws on Bitcoin’s full price history dating back to 2011, mapping out recurring bear market sequences that have played out across every major cycle. Each of those cycles followed a consistent three-stage structure, moving through a first low, a second low, and a final cycle bottom before any sustained recovery took hold. Based on this sequence, Crypto Con argues that the Bitcoin market has not yet reached a bottom but could be heading towards one soon. The Bear Bands framework on the chart places Bitcoin’s first low at around $64,000, a level it already achieved this February. The second low for the current cycle is projected near $44,500, indicating that the world’s largest cryptocurrency still has considerable downside ahead before the next major support is even tested.  Below this level, Crypto Con has set BTC’s cycle bottom around $28,500, marking the final and deepest projected level before a genuine reversal could be considered. With current prices currently holding above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would represent a staggering decline of more than 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that the bear market is far from over. Expected Timeline For A BTC Bear Bottom Beyond bearish price targets, the bottom timeline laid out in Crypto Con’s analysis presents a sobering outlook for investors and traders hoping for a quick recovery. The analyst has projected that the second low around $44,500 is not expected for at least another five months from the time of his post. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 This places Bitcoin’s next major price crash roughly in the August to October 2026 window, as indicated on the chart. If this timeline plays out, it would push any hope of a final bottom well beyond mid-2026.   If the projected cycle bottom at $28,500 plays out, Crypto Con expects it to arrive no earlier than three months after the second low. That points toward a November 2026 to January 2027 timeframe as the earliest window in which Bitcoin could realistically find its true price floor before it begins building toward a recovery.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since February 8, even as broader geopolitical risk remained elevated. The move appears to have been triggered by a sudden shift in macro sentiment around Iran, but market structure inside crypto had already left BTC primed for a sharp reversal. Why Is The Bitcoin Price Up Today? The immediate catalyst came from a report cited by The Kobeissi Letter, which said the New York Times had reported that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate an end to the war. According to Kobeissi, the proposed framework included Iran abandoning or sharply curtailing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, as well as reducing support for proxy groups, while President Donald Trump had “suggested” Iran’s surviving leaders could remain in power under a so-called “Venezuela model.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads Kobeissi added that “it remains unclear if a deal is feasible at this point in time,” but the timing matched a rapid risk-on reaction across US stock futures markets as well as Bitcoin. That macro headline helps explain the spark. It does not fully explain why Bitcoin reacted more forcefully than stocks and gold. For that, the positioning backdrop matters. BREAKING: US stock market futures surge as the New York Times reports that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate a deal to end the war. Potential terms include: 1. Iran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs 2. Iran to abandon… https://t.co/IsF3saWl1A — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 4, 2026 Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, argued that Bitcoin entered the latest week in an unusually compressed state after months of persistent weakness. “Bitcoin entered the weekend heavily oversold, heavily shorted, and significantly underowned,” Lunde wrote. “First and foremost, the context for BTC ahead of the war in Iran is wildly different from other asset classes. Bitcoin had fallen 50% after five continuous months of downside. The weekly RSI fell to its third lowest reading ever, meaning BTC entered the week uniquely oversold.” In other words, Bitcoin was not coming into the geopolitical shock from a position of strength. It was coming in after a deep washout. Lunde also noted that institutional exposure had already been cut back materially, with spot ETFs seeing outflows of nearly 100,000 BTC and notional CME open interest falling 30% from October levels. That matters because investors most likely to use BTC as a hedge against uncertainty had, in his view, already reduced exposure, loosening the asset’s correlation to traditional macro trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says Inside derivatives, the setup looked even more asymmetric. Lunde said perpetual funding rates had been unusually low and that traders had spent much of February paying a premium to stay short. “This is atypical market behavior for BTC, an asset with a distinct long bias,” he wrote. “Similar funding rate regimes have often appeared during bottoming phases and have historically reflected imbalances, overcrowding, and sell-side exhaustion.” That imbalance began to unwind quickly as price turned. In a follow-up post, Lunde said Binance BTCUSDT perpetual open interest had risen by 7,547 BTC in just four hours, a jump he said had not been seen on a comparable 4-hour basis since 2023. That suggests the rally was not just a spot reaction to headlines, but also a derivatives-led repositioning event. Crypto contributor Darkfost pointed to similar evidence. He noted that Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000 came alongside five consecutive days of spot ETF inflows and a decisive turn in aggressive derivatives buying. On Binance, the BTC Taker Buy Sell Ratio reached 1.18, its highest reading of the year, while taker buy volume exceeded $1 billion per hour multiple times during the session. Taken together, those signals suggest buyers are no longer simply absorbing selling pressure; they are beginning to dictate short-term price action. At press time, BTC traded at $70,851. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone.  The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685.  With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing.  In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area.  Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A crypto analyst has pinpointed critical price levels from past cycles on the Bitcoin chart that could determine the cryptocurrency’s next moves in this cycle. He has highlighted Bitcoin’s former all-time high target of $65,000 and a distinct 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58,000 as key levels to watch.  Bitcoin’s 200W SMA Highlighted As Key Watch Zone Crypto analyst VirtualBacon has taken to X to share new technical chart analysis, outlining two critical Bitcoin price levels he believes investors and traders should watch as the cryptocurrency continues its downward slide. Elaborating further in a video, VirtualBacon pointed to $65,000 and $58,000 as the zones worth paying attention to for anyone seeking a good buy opportunity in the current market environment.  Related Reading: Elliot Wave Theory Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $40,000, But The End Game Will Shock You VirtualBacon highlighted $58,000 as his most closely watched level, where the 200W SMA currently resides. The analyst described this indicator as one of the most consistently reliable buying zones in Bitcoin’s history, citing a track record spanning multiple market cycles.   He noted that during the 2015 bear market, Bitcoin’s price touched the 200W SMA four times without ever closing below it on a weekly candle. In 2018, the 200W SMA marked the absolute bottom of that cycle’s sell-off. The COVID-19 crash of 2020 also found support precisely at this same level. The one exception came in June 2022, when the price briefly wicked below the average before consolidating, then declined further by 25% following the collapse of FTX later that year.  VirtualBacon acknowledged the 2022 breakdown but emphasized that the 200W SMA near $58,000 remains a highly significant level, given how consistently it has served as a floor throughout Bitcoin’s history. In his view, the $58,000 level represents an area where long-term investors have historically stepped in, often accumulating at the bottom ahead of a strong price rally.  Analyst Marks Former Bitcoin ATH As Buying Opportunity In his analysis, VirtualBacon identified $65,000 as the first level to watch, which corresponds to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 bull cycle. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has already reached this area in the current cycle, arguing that, historically, former ATHs often become meaningful support when price revisits them. For investors who agree with this thesis, the analyst has suggested considering $65,000 as a potentially reasonable entry point into the market.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Notably, VirtualBacon’s Bitcoin analysis comes at a time when sentiment across the crypto market remains fragile, with retail investors unsure whether the decline in the BTC price signals a strategic buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper pullback.  Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways trading has also done little to restore confidence, instead fueling fear among market participants. Earlier this week, the cryptocurrency briefly fell below $64,000 after reports emerged about the US and Israel airstrikes on Iran. The cryptocurrency has since rebounded above $70,000, marking a 24-hour increase of more than 8%. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have often followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes those repeating structures may already be pointing toward the next major bottom. This is the foundational principle behind why Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: trade an asset long enough, and it begins to show a pattern memory. Right now, that memory is speaking. And it’s pointing to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000. Pattern Memory And Bitcoin’s Retracement History A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s retracement behavior could determine where the current cycle eventually stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with long trading histories tend to repeat certain behavioral patterns across cycles.  Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is Pattern memory shows that Bitcoin’s previous market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous peak. These levels have always acted as areas where the Bitcoin price finally found a durable bottom before beginning a new bull phase. During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin ultimately formed its bottom near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, once again reaching the 0.86 retracement low before a new accumulation phase began. However, the 2021 market cycle bottom occurred slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where Is The Next Real Bottom? If October 2025 was the true cycle high for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M timeframe suggests, then history gives us a roadmap for where price is likely headed before the next major bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle produces a range where Bitcoin may eventually bottom if history repeats. Mapping the current cycle’s Fibonacci retracement from the cycle low to the October 2025 high reveals three critical zones. The 0.618 sits at approximately $57,000-$58,000, which also aligns closely with the Weekly 200 Moving Average. However, this level alone may not represent the final low, based on how previous cycles behaved. Related Reading: XRP Price About To Enter ‘Face-Melting Phase’, And The Target Is $27 Instead, deeper retracement levels appear more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacements come into play. The 0.786 retracement level sits near $39,000 and coincides with the monthly 100-moving average. Beneath that, the 0.86 retracement level falls around $31,000. Both levels have previously defined major cycle bottoms; therefore, Bitcoin’s next long-term low could be somewhere within the $39,000 to $31,000 range if the October 2025 peak proves to be the true cycle high. Some market commentators have floated lower downside targets, including projections that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 region. However, the pattern-memory analysis shows that such a drop would represent a complete breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Ray Dalio cast fresh doubt on Bitcoin’s claim to safe-haven status on Tuesday, arguing that the asset still falls short of gold on privacy, institutional suitability and market structure. In a March 3 appearance on the All-In podcast, the billionaire hedge fund founder said those weaknesses help explain why Bitcoin has not behaved like gold during the current macro cycle. Asked why Bitcoin has lagged while gold has surged, Dalio pointed first to surveillance and control. “Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled,” he said. He then drew a line from that feature to state-level adoption. “Central banks are not going to want to buy bitcoin and be able to hold it. So, it’s not just individuals, it’s institutions and so on, but most, you know, and central banks.” That matters because Dalio’s broader framework in the interview was built around debt stress, monetary debasement and the search for what he sees as politically neutral reserve assets. In that setup, gold remains the benchmark. He described it not as a speculative commodity, but as “the most established money” and “the second largest reserve currency that central banks hold,” arguing that its role is rooted in transferability, scarcity and the fact that it is not someone else’s liability. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads Bitcoin, in Dalio’s telling, still looks different. Beyond privacy, he flagged technological uncertainty and the nature of its investor base. “There have been some questions or thoughts of the development of new technologies like quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that,” he said. “And then there’s who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio? It tends to have a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks.” That last point goes to Dalio’s bigger criticism: Bitcoin may be treated as an alternative monetary asset in theory, but in practice it still trades like a risk asset. “If somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something, whatever else they have,” he said, arguing that Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics are shaped by cross-portfolio stress in a way golds are not. He also called it “a relatively small market” and, for that reason, “a relatively controllable market.” Ray Dalio SLAMS Bitcoin!! “Bitcoin does not have privacy.” “Central banks are not gonna wanna buy Bitcoin.” “Quantum computing” “Who owns it?” What do you think? pic.twitter.com/NdleeHR5lB — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 3, 2026 Bitcoin Community Reacts The remarks quickly drew pushback from Bitcoin advocates on X, where the debate centered less on Dalio’s macro framing than on whether he was underestimating Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Investor Vijay Boyapati argued that Dalio “doesn’t fully understand why central banks own gold,” saying those holdings exist partly as protection against the possibility that gold competes with sovereign currencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Selling Cools: Is Months-Long Distribution Finally Ending? “Once Bitcoin achieves the same scale as gold (it will over time based on its significant comparative advantages over gold) central banks will be forced to own it for the same reason they own golf. Without ownership their national currency becomes vulnerable to a speculative attack from Bitcoin,” he added. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan took a more market-oriented angle: “Some hear criticism; I hear opportunity. These are the reasons bitcoin is 4% of the size of gold. If these critiques did not exist, bitcoin would already be ~$750,000/coin. I invest in bitcoin in part because I am confident these things will change over time.” Abra CEO Bill Barhydt argued that Bitcoin’s volatility and smaller float are features of a younger monetary asset, not proof of failure, while also disputing the severity of Dalio’s quantum concerns. I’d like to address this conversation between two people I greatly admire (@friedberg and @RayDalio) as both fellow libertarians and macro experts i try to learn from. The conversation in the video is about bitcoin but I’ve extended it to be about bitcoin vs gold. Note that… https://t.co/atznXiMdTy — Bill Barhydt (@billbar) March 3, 2026 Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox, meanwhile, responded with a one-line jab: “I’m looking forward to Ray Dalio finding out about Zcash.” At press time, BTC traded at $69,660. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s current price trajectory has left a lot to be desired, with the most concern currently being for when the digital asset will hit a bottom. There have been countless predictions since the decline began, and yet, Bitcoin remains below $70,000. Nevertheless, it has not stopped the barrage of bottom calls and price predictions. One of these was shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who took to using historical data and performance to track how low the BTC price will probably drop before reversing upward. Bitcoin Price Could Still Crash To $50,000 In the analysis , Crypto Patel pointed to previous bear markets and how far the Bitcoin price had crashed each time before recovering. The first of these was the 2018 bear market, when the Bitcoin price had crashed 85% after hitting an all-time high of $19,000. Once the crash was over and the bottom was established, though, the Bitcoin price would go on to record a 350% rally. Related Reading: Blood Moon Affecting Bitcoin Price? Why A Surge Above $100,000 Could Be Coming Next on the list was the 2019 crash that had triggered a 70% Bitcoin crash. This was a continuation of the bear market trend that had begun back in 2018, as profit-taking was the order of the day. However, just like before, this bleed would eventually end, and what followed was a 1,500% rally that would see the Bitcoin price reach new all-time highs. It eventually peaked at $69,000 in 2021 before crashing again. Following the 2021 bull market, the year 2022 would kickstart the next bear run for the digital asset. With the collapse of crypto giants such as Celsius and the FTX crypto exchange, the Bitcoin price witnessed a 78% crash. But once again, after hitting a bottom and accumulation ramped up, the BTC price would eventually rise 750% to cross $100,000 in the next few years, and eventually hit its most recent all-time high of $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Has Been This Low Only 2 Times In History, Here’s What Follows Each Time Using this trend, the crypto analyst outlines that it is possible that the Bitcoin price will drop further to $50,000, to complete a 50% price drop. However, despite the bearish prediction, Crypto Patel predicts that the BTC price is eventually headed for $220,000, which would be an over 300% increase from $50,000. Fully taking the historical performance into account, though, it shows that with each bear trend, the Bitcoin price has fallen an average of 70% each time. Using this, it is likely that the digital asset’s price will crash below $40,000, eventually finding support around $37,000, if history were to repeat itself. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com