Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has explained why the Bitcoin price has shown strength amid the US-Iran war, with the leading crypto rallying above $75,000. BTC is notably up over 12% since the war started, outperforming the stock market and gold. Why The Bitcoin Price Has Rallied Above $75,000 Despite U.S.-Iran War In his weekly Bitwise memo, Hougan stated that the Bitcoin price strength during the US-Iran war stems from the conflict itself. He explained that BTC has outperformed gold and the stock market because investors are betting on either of the crypto’s two major use cases or narratives. The first narrative is that Bitcoin will become “digital gold” and so will be able to compete with physical gold in the $38 trillion “store of value” market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again He noted that this is BTC’s current use case, and this narrative may be why the Bitcoin price has rallied amid the US-Iran war as investors see it as a safe haven rather than a risk asset. The Bitwise CIO described this bet on BTC as digital gold as very attractive and predicted that the leading crypto could reach $1 million if it captures 17% of the store-of-value market. Meanwhile, Hougan stated that the second bet on BTC is the belief that it might act like a traditional currency, suggesting that this is another reason that it is outperforming during this ongoing conflict. He noted that this second bet is like an “out-of-the-money call option” where it pays off if BTC is used more widely for international settlement. The Bitwise CIO stated that for most of Bitcoin’s life, it seemed unlikely that it would become a global currency, as until a few years ago, the world relied exclusively on dollar-based financial rails. However, that is now changing. He alluded to Iran receiving BTC for toll payments at the Strait of Hormuz, which has boosted the crypto’s status as a currency and contributed to the Bitcoin price rally. World Monetary Order Is Flipping In BTC’s Favor The Bitwise CIO noted that the US-Iran war has made the world monetary order more volatile, but has also increased the probability that Bitcoin will become a global currency. As such, the war has made BTC a more valuable out-of-the-money call option, which is why the Bitcoin price has shown strength during this period. Related Reading: Analyst Who Successfully Shorted The Bitcoin Price Top Announces A Change In His Plan Hougan added that with Iran’s move to accept BTC payments, the world has taken a step closer to integrating an apolitical currency into the global financial ecosystem. Therefore, whenever conflicts like the US-Iran war occur, the incentive to invest in apolitical assets like BTC increases, which serves as a catalyst for a higher Bitcoin price. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
More than 87% of Argentinians surveyed in a January Coinbase poll said they view crypto and blockchain technology as a way to strengthen their financial independence — a sign that the role of Bitcoin in the global economy may already be shifting well beyond what markets have priced in. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Bitcoin’s Dual Role Draws New Attention Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, made that case publicly this week. He said Bitcoin could one day command a total addressable market larger than gold’s $34 trillion valuation — but only if it manages to function both as a store of value and as an actual working currency. That’s a bigger claim than what Bitcoin bulls have traditionally made. For years, the comparison to gold was the headline argument. Now, a war is adding a new layer to that conversation. https://t.co/jxIcOn1e23 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) April 14, 2026 Iran has proposed allowing ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay a toll in crypto. The plan, reported in recent days amid escalating conflict with the United States, is being watched closely by Bitcoin investors. To Hougan, it points to something larger. In a world where countries have turned financial systems into weapons, he wrote on social media, Bitcoin is emerging as an option that no single government controls. A $1 Million Price Target — And Possibly Higher Hougan previously put a number on his store-of-value thesis: if Bitcoin captures 17% of that market over the next decade, each coin could be worth $1 million. Based on his latest comments, that figure may need to be revised upward if Bitcoin begins functioning like a currency alongside its role as a savings vehicle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $74,150, with a total market cap of roughly $1.4 trillion. Gold, by comparison, sits at $4,854 per ounce, with an estimated market cap exceeding $33 trillion. Corporate treasuries have also been buying in. Data shows private and public companies collectively hold more than 1.5 million Bitcoin, valued at over $116 billion. Merchant Adoption Remains A Work In Progress Still, the currency side of the equation has ground to cover. A study by academic publisher Springer Nature found roughly 11,000 merchants worldwide currently accept Bitcoin as payment — a relatively modest number for an asset of its size. Related Reading: Dollar’s Shrinking Value Adds Fuel To XRP Bull Case: Finance Expert Adoption has been strongest in countries where local currencies have collapsed. Citizens in Turkey and Venezuela, like those in Argentina, have turned to Bitcoin to protect savings against persistent inflation. Whether Iran’s crypto toll proposal signals a turning point for Bitcoin as an international currency — or simply reflects one sanctioned nation finding a workaround — remains to be seen. What’s clear is that Bitwise believes the story is bigger than gold alone. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says bitcoin has outperformed stocks and gold during the Iran conflict as geopolitical uncertainty boosts its appeal.
Circle stock, CRCL, experienced a significant decline over the past day following news of a proposed ban on stablecoin yield. Despite this selloff, Bitwise’s CIO maintains that the market reaction was excessive and projects that the company’s valuation will likely double by 2030. Related Reading: Cardano Price At Multi-Year Support That Previously Led To 200% Rally – ADA Recovery Ahead? Circle Selloff Was ‘Overblown’ – Bitwise CIO On Tuesday, Circle Internet Financial, the issuer behind the USDC stablecoin, saw its stock crash 22% to $98 following reports about lawmakers’ decision on the stablecoin yield dispute. CRCL’s selloff was driven by news that a revised draft of the Senate Banking Committee’s crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, would prohibit platforms from offering yield, directly or indirectly, for holding a stablecoin, or in a manner that resembles a bank deposit. Despite the selloff, some market experts have made the case for Circle, highlighting it as a good opportunity and “the most obvious choice” to invest in the stablecoins sector. In his weekly memo, Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, called the market’s reaction “overblown.” He asserted that the latest draft of the CLARITY Act doesn’t alter the base case forecast for Circle. Interest income has not been a primary driver of stablecoin growth to date; the vast majority of stablecoins today are held in ways that don’t pay interest. Stablecoins have exploded in popularity because they let people move money anywhere in the world efficiently and reliably—for trade settlement, as collateral in lending, as an alternative to unstable national currencies, and more. Hougan also emphasized that stablecoins offer convenience, which is “the killer app for money,” pointing out that the average savings account and average checking account yield 0.60% and 0.07%, respectively. “People aren’t parking their money there for the yield,” he noted, adding that as the global financial system increasingly transitions to blockchain-based rails, stablecoins are expected to assume a more significant role in this shift, irrespective of whether they offer interest. The Case For Circle’s $75B Valuation Diving deeper into his outlook for Circle, Hougan shared key projections for the broader stablecoin sector’s market capitalization and the company’s potential market share in the coming years. Citing Citigroup’s report, he asserted that the “base case” for stablecoin‘s assets under management (AUM) projects it will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, while a “bull case” estimates it at $4 trillion. Bitwise’s CIO also highlighted that Circle’s USDC, the second-largest dollar-pegged token, holds 25% of the overall stablecoin market share, only behind Tether’s USDT, but has a much larger share of the regulated stablecoin market, with an estimated 80%+ share. If you think much of the growth of stablecoin AUM will come from those markets (as banks, fintechs, and major enterprises opt for onshore, regulated stablecoins), you might expect Circle’s market share to increase well beyond its current 25% share. Lastly, he addressed what Circle could potentially earn on deposits in four years. As he explained, the company earns roughly 4% interest on $80 billion of its AUM backing USDC, but shares around 60% with distribution partners like Coinbase, netting a 1.6% take rate. Related Reading: Ethereum Tops $2,100 As BitMine Ramps Up ETH Bet With $137M Purchase While its sustainability hinges on interest rates and competition from rival stablecoins, Hougan projected that the take rate will be cut in half by 2030, to 0.8%. Using these “conservative assumptions” on the broader stablecoins market cap, the company’s market share, and margin, Bitwise’s CIO concluded that Circle could hit “$75 billion by 2030—even with the recent CLARITY Act concerns.” Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Hougan says bitcoin could reach that milestone if it captures a larger share of the global store-of-value market, though analysts say it would likely take years of institutional adoption and macro shifts.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the recent Bitcoin dip is being read very differently inside institutional circles than it is on crypto social media. In a March 2 interview with Scott Melker, Hougan said many professional allocators that missed the first leg of ETF-driven adoption are now treating lower prices as an opening, not a warning sign. Bitcoin Dip Draws Rush From Institutional Buyers The clearest example was a prospective client Hougan said had been in discussions with Bitwise for roughly two years before finally committing $11 million. For Hougan, that was less a story about sudden conviction than about how institutions actually move. “The average Bitwise client takes eight meetings before they allocate, which is brutal. But they meet quarterly. We’re about two years into the ETF boom. So they’re just now getting ready to allocate.” Bitcoin Insider Reveals Why Institutions Are Scrambling To Buy The Dip! | @Matt_Hougan pic.twitter.com/KUKndfw0mP — The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) March 2, 2026 That lag, he argued, is being mistaken for hesitation when it is often just an institutional process. “They’re not surprised that crypto is volatile,” Hougan said. “Like, wow, crypto is volatile, right? They’ve been waiting for an entry point.” He highlighted that spot ETFs saw net inflows during sharp down weeks, which he took as evidence that institutions remain “the marginal buyer” and are likely to keep entering the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge Hougan drew a distinction between crypto-native sentiment and the way wealth managers, RIAs and larger institutions frame the asset. Retail, he said, has slipped into a full bear-market mindset, pointing to the crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 5. But institutions are operating on a different clock. “These people are making allocations for the next five or 10 years,” he said. “Even if you talk to the most bearish, despairing person on crypto Twitter and you ask them where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, they’re going to be pretty bullish.” That helps explain why falling prices are not necessarily slowing adoption. In many cases, Hougan said, advisors first buy Bitcoin personally, hold it for about a year, then begin allocating to a small group of clients before scaling up. “Typically what they do is they take their first 10 clients who have been asking them relentlessly about crypto for the last 10 years and they allocate on their behalf,” he said. “The big game comes when they go from 10 to 100.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says The distribution channels are also opening wider. Hougan said that, as of Q4, three of the four major wire houses can now proactively discuss Bitcoin with clients, while the fourth is expected to follow. Still, he estimated that roughly 20% to 25% of wealth managers remain closed to crypto exposure, underscoring that institutional access is still being rolled out rather than fully saturated. For Hougan, that is why the market may be underestimating what comes next. “Eventually Bitcoin ETFs, I think, will at some point have a trillion dollars of assets in them,” he said. “They’re not going to go down from here. It just takes time.” He was equally emphatic that this cycle feels different from prior drawdowns. “In previous bear markets, in FTX, the bear market felt existential,” Hougan said. “This winter doesn’t feel like that. Most people look at this as an attractive entry point. They don’t see death and despair. They see the world getting more digital, they see rising concern about fiat currency, they see a four-year cycle that would naturally mean we have a pullback.” If that view holds, the current drawdown may matter less as a test of conviction than as a transfer point: from fast-moving retail traders to slower, deeper pools of capital that are still early in their allocation process. At press time, BTC traded at $66,360. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
As artificial intelligence races ahead, some crypto executives believe it could become the force that finally pushes blockchain infrastructure into widespread use. Others aren’t convinced the leap is so straightforward.
Under "Prediction Shares" branding, Bitwise filed to list two ETFs tracking prediction markets betting on the outcome of the 2028 presidential election.
Bitwise filed for prediction market ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election amid state regulatory scrutiny on the sector.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the sell-off reflects cycle dynamics and macro risk-off forces — not a repeat of 2022’s systemic collapse.
The crypto asset manager argued that while the current drawdown mirrors the anxiety of 2018 and 2022, long-term upside catalysts remain intact.
XRP has been misunderstood as just another retail-traded crypto asset, when in reality, it was engineered from the ground up to serve institutional finance. Most retail investors approach XRP through the lens of short-term price action, but that framing misses what the asset was actually built to do. XRP was never built for retail investors. Crypto trader Adam highlighted on X that from the outset, XRP was designed as institutional-grade infrastructure, powering liquidity corridors, cross-border settlements, and the movement of value between financial systems fast and efficiently. How Early Liquidity Providers Sit Ahead Of Demand The goal isn’t hype or speculation, but rather plumbing for global money flow. In this framework, the retail participant isn’t the target audience. Instead, retail holders occupy an early position, providing optional liquidity and gaining front-row access while the underlying rails are still being built. Related Reading: Ripple’s Next Steps: Where XRP Stops Being Trade And Starts Being Infrastrucutre As institutional adoption continues to expand, retail holders are positioned ahead of the curve and may benefit from utility demand, which ultimately drives long-term value. In this contest, being early doesn’t mean being excluded; it simply means being advantaged ahead of the curve. XRP has already transitioned into an institutional-grade asset. Analyst Xfinancebull has pointed out that the narrative from just two years ago was that many believed institutions would avoid XRP due to its uncertainty, perceived risk, and regulatory clarity, but that landscape has shifted. Currently, XRP exposure is available on major institutional platforms, including Vanguard, which manages over $10 trillion in assets and serves more than 50 million investors globally, and is second only to BlackRock. Multiple XRP ETFs are now live and accessible, including the Bitwise XRP ETF, Franklin Templeton XRP ETF, Canary XRP ETF, and Teucrium 2x XRP ETF. Despite this progress, XRP’s price remains low, and institutions are not emotional about the dip because they don’t buy green candles; they accumulate during the times of fear, and position their capital when retail interest is distracted or discouraged. XRP is now available on the same platforms used in managing retirement funds for millions of Americans and now offers direct XRP exposure. Once institutional allocations begin to flow, available supply can be absorbed quickly. “You’re either positioned before institutions move, or chasing after they’ve already entered,” Xfinancebull noted. Banks Are Already Testing XRPL Infrastructure According to Jake Claver, the CEO of DAGFamilyOffice, the global banking system currently has roughly $27 trillion locked in pre-funded accounts, which only exist because banks can’t settle transactions in real-time. Meanwhile, the XRP ledger alternative can handle that settlement in seconds, and banks are already testing this infrastructure. Related Reading: XRP Tops All Assets On Risk/Reward, Analyst Says The key question, as Claver frames it, is not whether real-time settlement is possible, but how long the current system can persist before the efficiency gains become impossible for banks to ignore. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitwise-managed strategy seeks to generate income from otherwise idle crypto holdings while assets remain within Kraken's custody.
Bitwise is laying out a bold scenario: Bitcoin could climb to a new record in 2026 and, if the stars align as the sages would say, may one day reach $1 million over the next 10 years. That view rests less on past rhythms and more on a shift in who buys and how they buy. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers Institutional Demand Could Soar According to Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s Director of Research, big money is moving from the sidelines onto the field. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and major brokerages have made buying easier for pension funds, endowments, and fund managers. Reports say these channels could funnel tens of billions into the market in 2026 alone. That scale of buying would change how supply shocks play out; a surge of steady inflows can soften the sharp drops that used to follow supply events. JUST IN: $15 billion Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high this year ???? “We believe Bitcoin will hit $1,000,000” pic.twitter.com/k4z9Yk8FEF — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) February 3, 2026 Halving’s Role Is Changing For years, the four-year halving was treated like clockwork: lower miner rewards, tighter new supply, and big price moves. Bitwise now argues that effect is fading. Market access is broader, and more investor types hold stakes, so prices react to a more complex mix of demand signals. Interest rate shifts and the heavy liquidations seen in late 2025 also altered how margin and credit affect crypto moves. Price patterns are being shaped by more varied forces than before. Volatility Has Quieted Reports note a steady fall in Bitcoin’s wild swings over the past decade. In 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was lower than some major tech stocks, a change that surprises many long-time observers. This makes the asset easier to hold for institutional managers who need predictable risk profiles. At the same time, ties to US equities appear to be loosening. A lower correlation would let Bitcoin serve as a distinct allocation in a diversified portfolio, rather than just another proxy for broader market mood. Related Reading: Trump Says He Was Unaware Of Abu Dhabi Royal’s $500 Million WLFI Investment Near-Term Pain, Longer-Term Case? Bitcoin hit lows under $80,000 recently, trading near $75,000 at one point. Those moves wiped about 10% off value in a week and left the coin roughly 35% below the October 6, 2025 peak of $126,085. Short-term stress is real. Some capital left the market in sharp selloffs, and sentiment cooled. Yet Bitwise thinks these shocks could be less defining going forward, because buying via ETFs and brokerages does not always behave like retail-driven swings. The vision of Bitcoin reaching $1 million may seem distant, but Rasmussen sees it as a realistic outcome if current trends continue. Rising institutional demand and broader market access could make 2026 a turning point, setting the stage for a decade where Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset, but a serious contender for long-term wealth growth. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released a new analysis of the current state of the crypto market, arguing that the industry has been firmly entrenched in a bear market for over a year. In a report shared on social media, Hougan stated that his research indicates the current downturn began as early as January 2025, despite widespread optimism fueled by institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to new all-time highs. Deep Bear Market Driving Crypto? Posting on X, formerly Twitter, Hougan pushed back against the idea that recent price weakness represents a routine pullback or short‑term dip. Instead, he described the current environment as a full‑scale crypto winter comparable to past downturns in 2018 and 2022. Interestingly, Hougan said the crypto market currently resembles a “2022‑like, Leonardo‑DiCaprio‑in‑The‑Revenant‑style” winter, driven by excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit‑taking by long‑time crypto holders. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Hougan addressed a question many investors have been asking: why prices continue to fall despite a steady stream of positive developments. He pointed to expanding institutional involvement, improving regulation, and broader adoption as clear long‑term positives, but said none of that typically matters during the deepest phase of a bear market. According to Hougan, crypto winters are periods when good news is largely ignored, regardless of its significance. Even developments such as Wall Street firms hiring aggressively or major banks like Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto exposure are unlikely to spark a rally in the short term. He also cited market sentiment indicators to support his view. Hougan noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, even as the newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is publicly supportive of Bitcoin. To him, this disconnect underscores how deeply negative sentiment has become. Drawing on past cycles, Hougan said crypto winters rarely end with renewed excitement or optimism. Instead, they typically conclude when investors are exhausted and disengaged. ETF Support Propped Up Bitcoin? Looking to history, Hougan observed that previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming a year later, and again peaked in October 2021 before hitting its low point in November 2022. By that measure, the current cycle might suggest more pain ahead, particularly since Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025. However, Hougan argued that focusing solely on that date misses a critical detail. In his view, the current winter actually began in January 2025 but was partially hidden by extraordinary institutional inflows. He said strong demand from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked underlying weakness across much of the crypto market. Hougan emphasized the scale of institutional support for Bitcoin in particular, calling it unprecedented. During the period he analyzed, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased more than 744,000 BTC, representing roughly $75 billion in buying pressure. He suggested that without this support, BTC’s price could have fallen by as much as 60%. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Despite this, Bitwise CIO suggested several possible catalysts that could help lift sentiment and mark the beginning of a crypto recovery, including strong global economic growth that reignites risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time. Reflecting on his experience through multiple crypto market cycles, he said the current mood of despair, fatigue, and malaise closely resembles the final stages of past crypto winters. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Prices have been falling since early 2025, masked by institutional flows, but history suggests the worst may already be behind us, Bitwise said.
After a bruising 2025, Hougan sees sideways Bitcoin trading, rising institutional interest and early central bank curiosity setting up the next cycle.
Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said he thinks Solana could plausibly become a trillion-dollar asset within five years—an outcome that would roughly translate into a ~$1,600 SOL price on a simple market-cap-per-token basis, depending on circulating supply. Hougan made the remarks on the Jan. 29 episode of When Shift Happens, framing his Solana view through what he called a “two ways to win” setup: growth in the addressable market (stablecoins and tokenized assets), plus an increasing share captured by Solana versus competing networks. Why Solana Could Hit $1,600+ Within 5 Years Hougan argued that the “infrastructure market” for stablecoins and tokenization is expanding quickly enough that large, liquid L1s should be valued less like niche crypto experiments and more like enabling rails for traditional finance. “The US Secretary of Treasury expects the stablecoin market to 12x over the next four years,” he said, adding that Larry Fink has described a future where “every asset, every fund, ETF, stock, bond, real estate will be tokenized.” From there, his Solana thesis leaned heavily on relative positioning. Ethereum remains the incumbent in stablecoins and tokenization, Hougan said, but Solana is “a legit competitor with an interesting technological differentiation,” and crucially “it’s extraordinarily easy to use and the community has a ship first attitude.” Related Reading: Solana Scores Major Institutional Adoption As WisdomTree Goes On-Chain That usability point, in his view, is underpriced by investors who focus on benchmark-style comparisons. “I think ease of use is a killer app that’s underrated by investors,” Hougan said. “Investors like to talk about throughput and they like to talk… TPS… who cares about this? …For an end user who’s trading, who’s on-ramping, ease of use is the killer app. And Solana is just easy to use, just dead easy to use.” Hougan also acknowledged a common investor blind spot: token supply dynamics can separate price action from market cap growth. He noted that Solana’s market value can rise meaningfully even if the token price revisits prior highs, and suggested staking yield partially offsets dilution, citing “roughly like 7% a year.” Another thread in the discussion was how regulation shaped institutional behavior. Hougan said Solana’s footprint in stablecoins and tokenization was constrained during the prior US regulatory environment, arguing that institutions “couldn’t build on Solana” if they believed it sat “outside of the regulatory perimeter.” With that cloud lifting, he said, mandates are starting to broaden. He also described why the ETF wrapper matters more for a smaller asset. “You put a little bit of inflows into an ETF package and they’re chasing a relatively small supply of Solana,” Hougan said. “It’s one of the best setups for an asset that I’ve ever seen because you have this small constrained size, you have significant institutional demand, you have stablecoins and tokenization… you put all that together and it seems like a winner.” Still, he avoided hard price targets and instead stayed in market-cap terms. “In 5 years I think it could be a trillion dollar asset. I think that’s relatively easy to imagine,” he said. “It’s hard to give a precise target because it depends on the pace of growth on stablecoins and tokenization. It depends on whether Congress passes the Clarity Act. It depends on the sort of crypto market cycles.” E156: @Matt_Hougan from @BitwiseInvest – $6.5M Bitcoin and the strongest Solana setup ever? This might be the most bullish yet rational episode we’ve done on the future of crypto: why debasement, institutional flows & tokenization are just getting started. Timestamps: 0:00… pic.twitter.com/WMqvKL7pCj — MR SHIFT ???? (@KevinWSHPod) January 29, 2026 On simple market-cap math, a $1 trillion Solana valuation implies a four-figure token price depending on supply. The relationship is straightforward: token price equals market cap divided by supply. Using Solana’s circulating supply of roughly 566 million SOL, a $1 trillion market cap works out to about $1,766 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 566,000,000). Related Reading: Solana Pauses After 20% Drop — This Key Level Could Decide What’s Next If you instead use a fully diluted-style denominator closer to 619 million SOL, the same $1 trillion market cap implies roughly $1,615 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 619,000,000). In other words, Hougan’s “trillion-dollar asset” framing maps to something like the mid-$1,000s per token on today’s supply assumptions, with the exact number moving as supply changes. Notably, Hougan’s Solana call sat alongside a broader macro narrative he returned to repeatedly: monetary debasement pushing investors toward scarce and non-sovereign stores of value. On Bitcoin, he argued the “two ways to win” are the store-of-value market expanding and Bitcoin taking share from gold, an arc he said could drive multi-million-dollar BTC over decades if the last 10–15 years of adoption trends persist. For Solana, the equivalent is less about being “digital gold” and more about becoming a primary venue for stablecoin flows and tokenized securities. If those rails scale and if Solana continues gaining share as a high-velocity, institution-friendly network, Hougan’s trillion-dollar scenario implies the market is still pricing the opportunity too conservatively. At press time, SOL traded at $115.40. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The asset manager argued that without federal legislation, the industry has three years to become indispensable before political winds potentially shift.
Bitwise’s take on the final months of 2025 reads like a careful, hopeful note rather than a loud market call. Momentum on the chains rose even as prices stalled, and that gap is exactly what has traders talking. Some think it marks a bottom. Others say it’s too soon to be sure. Related Reading: Trove’s New Token Craters 95%, Sparking Investor Revolt Crypto: On-Chain Activity Surges According to Bitwise, Ethereum activity and layer-two transactions climbed to new highs, and decentralized trading grew markedly. Stablecoin supplies also swelled, with the total market cap passing the $300 billion mark in Q4. Reports note that decentralized exchange volumes at times matched or exceeded those of major centralized venues. These are hard numbers. They are signs that real use and liquidity are expanding under the surface. The latest Bitwise Crypto Market Review just dropped—and it’s the most important one we’ve ever published. Why? Because it shows a tension in crypto markets that has historically signaled a bear-market bottom (see Q1 2023). Receipts: During Q4 2025… – ETH’s price fell 29% …… — Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) January 21, 2026 Why Prices Have Lagged Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, compared this setup to early 2023 when prices trailed rising fundamentals before a significant rebound took hold over the following two years. The comparison makes sense on paper. Price can be stubborn. Market psychology often lags behind on-chain realities, and traders sometimes wait for a clearer macro story before committing capital. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee offers a counterpoint, saying the year could be bumpy until late, with tariffs and political tensions weighing on risk appetite. That view keeps many investors cautious. Crypto, Stablecoins And DeFi At The Center According to market data, flows into stablecoins accelerated, and fund inflows to crypto firms outpaced several other sectors in the stock market. DeFi use was no longer a niche metric; it was central to the Q4 narrative. “That’s the type of divergence you get at the bottom of bear markets, when sentiment is down but fundamentals are up,” Hougan said. Some infrastructure firms reported rising revenues. At the same time, trading volumes remained muted compared with the peaks seen earlier, which helps explain the mismatch between on-chain strength and sideways price action. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Sharp Reversal Leaves Over $800 Million Liquidated In 1 Day Why This Might Matter For 2026 Bitwise highlighted 10 broad indicators it sees as health signs for the market, ranging from transaction counts to custody and fee trends. Progress on regulatory clarity was also flagged. Reports say the Clarity Act could change how stablecoins are treated in the US, and a new US Federal Reserve chair could shift policy in ways that matter for risk assets. Bitwise sees Q4 as a quiet period where things were improving behind the scenes, even if prices didn’t show it. The firm says this kind of gap between price and activity has happened before big rebounds. It doesn’t mean a rally will happen right away, but the market could be setting itself up for a stronger year ahead. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Chainlink is a dominant software platform quietly powering stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi and institutional adoption across crypto, said Matt Hougan.
The cryptocurrency market recently experienced a brief uptick, but it has once again encountered increased volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) and other major crypto assets retracting some of the gains achieved earlier in the week. Amid this churning landscape, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has outlined three essential “checkpoints for a rally,” which he believes must be met for a lasting cryptocurrency recovery this year. Key Hurdles For Crypto Rally In the report released on January 6, Hougan highlighted the first hurdle for a sustained rally: avoiding a repeat of the catastrophic events that transpired on October 10, 2025. On that day, the market witnessed the largest liquidation event in its history, erasing approximately $19 billion in futures positions in just 24 hours. Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The aftermath of this event raised concerns among investors about the potential long-term health of significant market players such as hedge funds and major market makers. Many feared that these entities might need to liquidate assets to stabilize their operations, a scenario that could weigh heavily on the market. However, Hougan expressed a degree of optimism, suggesting that if any major firm were poised for a downturn, it likely would have occurred by now. He argues that investors have begun to move past the traumatic experience of October 10, contributing to the recent rally at the start of the new year. The second checkpoint outlined by Hougan is the passage of the crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, which is currently making its way through Congress with the anticipated markup scheduled for January 15. This process involves aligning various drafts from the Senate banking and agriculture committees to reach a final vote. However, NewsBTC reported on Wednesday that several hurdles remain, including differing perspectives on how to regulate decentralized finance (DeFi) and stablecoin rewards. Legislative Framework Essential Hougan emphasized that the approval of the CLARITY Act is crucial for the long-term viability of cryptocurrencies in the United States. Without a legislative framework, Hougan stressed that the current pro-crypto stance at regulatory agencies could shift dramatically under future administrations. Bitwise’s CIO emphasized that passing the crypto market structure bill would solidify key regulatory principles into law, providing a sound foundation for ongoing growth in the crypto sector. Related Reading: Dogecoin Rapid Accumulation Suggests Sharp Upward Sweep Is Coming The final hurdle for a sustained crypto rally is maintaining stability in the broader equity market. While cryptocurrencies do not operate in lockstep with stocks, a significant downturn—such as a 20% drop in the S&P 500—could dampen enthusiasm for all risk assets, including digital currencies. Hougan also notes growing concerns about a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. However, current prediction markets suggest a low probability of a recession in 2026 and an approximately 80% chance of gains for the S&P 500. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Several catalysts have emerged that point to a sustained upward momentum for the Dogecoin price. This comes amid DOGE’s 26% gain to begin the year, with the meme coin now looking to break above the $0.15 resistance. Factors That Could Contribute To A Sustained Dogecoin Price Rally One factor pointing to a sustained Dogecoin price rally is the recent inflows into DOGE ETFs. SoSoValue data show that Bitwise and Grayscale’s funds have recorded net inflows on two of the three trading days this year. Notably, the Dogecoin ETFs recorded inflows of $2.30 million and $1.60 million on January 2 and 5, respectively. This marked the first consecutive daily net inflows since December 3 last year. Related Reading: Analyst Says the Worst Is Over For Dogecoin, Predicts Rally To $0.8 The daily net inflows into the DOGE ETFs indicate a renewed interest among institutional investors in the meme coin, which is a positive for the Dogecoin price. DOGE could see a sustained rally if the inflows into these funds continue. Notably, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that a 2x Dogecoin ETF has had the best start to the year among all ETFs, up almost 40%. Furthermore, activity in the derivatives market also supports a sustained rally for the Dogecoin price. CoinGlass data shows that traders on top exchanges such as Binance and OKX are currently long. The long/short ratio on Binance is 2.06, well above 1. The long/short ratio for top traders on Binance is at 2.5, which is also a huge positive. Further data from CoinGlass also shows that the derivatives trading volume has surged over 2% to $5.60 billion. However, open interest has dropped by almost 7% to $1.78 billion, likely due to the market volatility as long positions were wiped out. DOGE Eyes Break Above $0.15 Crypto analyst ZiP stated in an X post that on the daily chart, the Dogecoin price is currently reacting to a local resistance at around $0.15. He further remarked that if the $0.15 resistance breaks, the next zone that the DOGE price may aim for is around $0.24. The analyst noted that this is where the first significant Fibonacci level, measured from the entire bearish move, is located. Meanwhile, ZiP mentioned that an additional reference point is the daily pivot at $0.1288, which he noted in the short term defines the market’s equilibrium level. Crypto analyst Trader Tarigrade revealed that the Dogecoin price has broken out of a falling wedge, showing strong upward momentum. Based on this, he predicted that DOGE is ready for a major surge, although he warned that the meme coin might retrace briefly. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Rally To All-Time Highs If It Breaks This Resistance Level At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.148, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitwise filed applications for 11 new crypto strategy ETFs, which would both directly and indirectly invest in crypto.
Bitcoin’s 2025 was billed as the year of the “supercycle,” powered by record institutional access and a friendlier policy backdrop out of Washington. However, it is ending very differently. Into December, the world’s largest digital asset is not pricing in a new paradigm so much as grinding through a performance problem. The rally has faded, […]
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The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today as the crypto market remains in a phase of extreme fear. This latest crash came amid BlackRock’s move, which sparked fear of a sell-off from the world’s largest asset manager. The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are down today following BlackRock’s transfer of 2,257 BTC and 74,973 ETH to Coinbase, indicating plans to offload these coins. Notably, the BTC and ETH ETFs recorded outflows on December 16, likely why the asset manager moved these coins to redeem shares for its IBIT and ETHA ETFs, which were sold that day. Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Decline Amid BlackRock’s Transfer These Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have continued to record mixed flows, which have partly contributed to declines in BTC and ETH prices. Notably, the Bitcoin price had surged to around $90,000 yesterday from an intraday low of around $87,000, before retracing below $87,000 about an hour later. This immediately sparked theories of manipulation, with some crypto pundits revealing that BlackRock wasn’t the only one selling. Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Crypto pundit Kruse claimed that Binance first bought nonstop for over 30 minutes to pump the price, then started dumping millions of BTC and ETH to liquidate longs. He noted that the Bitcoin price pumped about $3,300 in 30 minutes, with $106 million in shorts wiped out during that period. Following that, BTC printed another volatile hourly candle to the downside, which flushed out $52 million in longs. A similar price action had also played out for the Ethereum price. Kruse declared that this wasn’t random volatility but rather liquidity hunting. The pundit further warned that this is how leverage gets punished in crypto. He then reiterated that the volatile Bitcoin and Ethereum price actions weren’t random, indicating the market is being manipulated. Onchain Sleuth Tracer also accused Binance of being responsible for the Bitcoin and Ethereum price declines. He claimed that the crypto exchange pumped and dumped millions of BTC to liquidate traders, with $194 million in shorts and longs liquidated in one hour. BTC And ETH To Hit New All-Time Highs Next Year? Crypto asset manager Bitwise has predicted that the Bitcoin price will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs in 2026. The asset manager alluded to factors such as the Bitcoin halving and interest rate cycles as what will drive this rally for the flagship crypto. The firm also remarked that crypto booms and busts fueled by leverage are weaker than in past cycles. Related Reading: Ethereum 2-Year Trend Maps Out This Unique Crash Path To Bottom At $2,187 Bitwise also stated that institutions are likely to allocate more to Bitcoin ETFs, which is why they expect the Bitcoin price to reach new all-time highs next year. Furthermore, the firm noted that the pro-crypto regulatory shift will continue to allow companies to adopt crypto at a faster rate. The crypto asset manager also predicted that the Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high if the CLARITY Act passes. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
In its latest report, asset manager and exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer, Bitwise, has shared an optimistic 2026 outlook for the crypto market, anticipating significant growth, while predicting new all-time highs for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Megatrends In Crypto? Bitwise begins by asserting that Bitcoin is poised to break free from its traditional four-year price cycle, setting the stage for new records. Several factors contribute to this bullish forecast. The dynamics of past cycles, including the Bitcoin Halving, interest rate fluctuations, and market booms and busts fueled by leverage, are expected to be less impactful in the coming years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Forecast: Top Expert Predicts $40,000 Target Next Year, Here’s The Analysis Notably, the entry of large institutions like Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch into the crypto space is anticipated to accelerate institutional allocations toward spot ETFs and enhance on-chain developments by 2026. As a result, Bitcoin is projected to become less volatile, even indicating that it has demonstrated lower volatility than tech giant Nvidia throughout 2025. The report also expresses strong optimism for Ethereum and Solana, particularly contingent upon the passing of the CLARITY Act. Bitwise believes that the growth of stablecoins and tokenization represents significant “megatrends,” with both Ethereum and Solana positioned to be the primary beneficiaries of this trend. ETFs To Acquire New Market Supply Institutional demand is forecasted to surge, with ETFs expected to acquire more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. By 2026, Bitwise expects that most institutional investors will have access to crypto ETFs. As Bitwise projects the new supply hitting the market, estimates indicate roughly 166,000 Bitcoin valued at $15.3 billion, 960,000 Ethereum around $3.0 billion, and 23 million Solana coins amounting to $3.2 billion. However, the firm anticipates that ETFs will likely purchase even more than these figures suggest. The report further highlights that crypto equities are expected to outperform traditional tech stocks. While tech shares have surged by 140% over the past three years, crypto equities have significantly outpaced them. The Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which tracks companies providing crucial infrastructure and services for crypto assets, has rocketed by 585% during the same time frame. Bitwise believes this momentum will persist into 2026, driven by potential revenue growth, mergers and acquisitions, and a favorable regulatory landscape. Stablecoins As Scapegoats For Economic Woes As stablecoins gain traction, Bitwise cautions that they may become scapegoats for destabilizing emerging market currencies. Currently valued at nearly $300 billion, the market for stablecoins, which include tokenized versions of the US dollar like USDT and USDC, is predicted to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026. With this rise, it’s anticipated that one or two countries may blame stablecoins for their financial troubles, despite the reality that people would not turn to stablecoins if their local currencies were stable. Related Reading: Cantor Fitzgerald Projects Major Growth For Hyperliquid (HYPE) In Explosive New Report Additionally, Bitwise forecasts the launch of over 100 crypto-linked ETFs in the United States, following the SEC’s issuance of new listing standards that enable these funds to enter the market under a unified regulatory framework. This regulatory clarity sets the stage for what Bitwise dubs “ETF-palooza” in 2026. Lastly, the firm predicts that half of Ivy League endowments will likely invest in cryptocurrencies, and that on-chain vault assets under management will double in the coming years. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $86,165, having recorded major losses of 2% and almost 7% over the past 24 hours and seven days respectively. Currently, the leading crypto is trading 31.8% below its all-time high of $126,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said BTC is likely to hit all-time highs next year, with lower volatility and weaker equity correlations reshaping how institutions view the asset.
Bitwise’s decision to lock in a ticker and fee puts its Hyperliquid ETF a step ahead of rival proposals, including 21Shares’ filing.
The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund now trades on NYSE Arca, joining the ranks of gold and oil funds in regulated exchange products.