Bitcoin has been in freefall recently, but this popular indicator is yet to reach the same highs as the last two cycles. Is the real top still ahead for the asset? Bitcoin aSOPR Has Been Consolidating For The Last Two Years As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin aSOPR has been consolidating between converging trendlines for nearly two years. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. Related Reading: USDC Floods Exchanges: Are Traders Buying The Bitcoin Crash? When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder is transferring their coins at some net profit on the blockchain. On the other hand, the indicator being below this threshold implies the dominance of loss taking on the network. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to 1 suggests profit realization is canceling out loss realization. In other words, the investors as a whole are just breaking even on their sales. In the context of the current discussion, the version of the SOPR that’s of interest is the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR). This indicator eliminates from the data sales of all coins that moved within an hour of their last movement. Such moves are usually relay transactions and carry no consequences for the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years: As the quant has highlighted in the graph, the 2017 and first-half 2021 bull runs both interestingly topped out as the aSOPR rose to the red line. This level corresponds to a notable degree of profit realization among the investors. Similarly, the bear markets of the last two cycles found their bottoms at about the same time as the aSOPR hitting a low at the green line, some distance below the 1 mark. At this level, loss-taking is dominant, so weak hands capitulating and resolute entities accumulating their coins could be behind the bottom formation pattern. In the current cycle so far, the aSOPR hasn’t touched the red line. Instead, the indicator has been stuck in consolidation inside two converging trendlines in a mild profit-taking region for almost the last two years. Considering the pattern of the last two cycles, it’s possible that the latest one hasn’t hit its top yet. Another possibility, however, could very well be that the aSOPR simply isn’t going to touch the red level in this cycle at all. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Retraces To Lower Bound—What Comes Next? The Bitcoin aSOPR is now slowly inching toward the end of its converging channel, so a breakout one way or the other could happen soon. It only remains to be seen which direction the indicator will exit. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,300, down 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed how the two largest spikes in trading volume coincided with recent buying and selling windows for Bitcoin. Trading Volume May Signal Tops & Bottoms For Bitcoin In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about a pattern associated with the trading volume of Bitcoin. The “trading volume” here refers to a metric that keeps track of the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s becoming involved in trading activities on the various centralized exchanges. When the value of this metric is high, it means the traders are making a large number of moves on the market. Such a trend suggests interest in the asset is high. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value implies investors may not be paying much attention to the cryptocurrency as they are participating in a low amount of activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the trading volume for Bitcoin and other top coins in the sector over the last few months: In the above graph, Santiment has highlighted two large spikes in the trading volume of Bitcoin. The first of these, involving a movement of $84.08 billion in the asset, occurred at the start of April. Interestingly, this spike coincided with BTC’s tariff-driven dip. The other spike took place just earlier this month and saw the indicator hit a high of $90.90 billion. This time, the elevated trading volume came alongside BTC’s new all-time high (ATH) above the $124,000 level. “Note that the two largest volume spikes from Bitcoin signaled the optimal time to buy (as prices were falling) and sell (as prices peaked to a new ATH),” explains the analytics firm. What could be the explanation behind the pattern? Generally, the higher the trading activity, the more likely BTC is to observe some kind of volatility. This is because the moves being made by investors act as fuel for price moves. Where the emerging volatility may lead the asset is hard to say based on the trading volume data alone, as it doesn’t separate between buying and selling moves. Spikes that come near price lows, however, can be signs of buying. This is what happened in April. Similarly, a particularly sharp uptick in activity after rallies, like the one seen earlier in the month, can be a sign of profit-taking. Related Reading: Dogecoin Coils Up: Triangle Break Could Spark 40% Move, Analyst Says At present, Bitcoin trading volume remains elevated, but its current value of $66 billion is clearly still a step below the levels seen during the aforementioned turnarounds. BTC Price Bitcoin has been facing sustained bearish momentum recently as its price has gradually been sliding down, with its latest value coming at $113,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how $136,000 could be the next price level of importance for Bitcoin, if current momentum continues. This Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Level Is Situated At $136,000 In a new thread on X, Glassnode has discussed what a few different on-chain indicators suggest regarding where Bitcoin is in the current cycle. The first metric shared by the analytics firm is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which measures the average acquisition price of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $117,000 Amid $3.5 Billion Profit-Taking Frenzy Below is a chart showing the trend in this metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price broke above the STH Cost Basis earlier in the year and has since remained above the line, indicating the STHs as a whole have been in a state of net profit. In the same chart, the analytics firm has also marked a few other levels, each corresponding to a specific standard deviation (SD) from the STH Cost Basis. With the recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH) above $123,000, BTC was able to breach the +1 SD level, which has historically corresponded to heated market conditions. After the pullback, though, the coin has returned below the mark, but still remains close to it. “If this momentum continues, the next key level is $136k (2 +std), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks,” explains Glassnode. While Bitcoin is still not overheated from the perspective of the STH Cost Basis model, other indicators paint a different picture. The STH Supply In Profit, an indicator tracking the percentage of the cohort’s supply that’s sitting on some gain, has recently surged far above the 88% threshold that has separated high-risk euphoric phases. Another metric, measuring the percentage of STH volume that’s leading to profit realization, also similarly saw a jump significantly above the historical overheated cutoff of 62%. “Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets, but repeated signals at these levels typically precede local tops and warrant caution,” notes the analytics firm. During this spike of profit-taking, the ratio between the profit and loss being realized by the Bitcoin STHs spiked to a 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) value of 39.8. This is a value that’s, once again, extreme by historical standards. That said, spikes like this have generally occurred multiple times over the course of a cycle, before a top is finally attained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Under $117,000: Is Social Media FOMO To Blame? “Historically, cycle tops follow with a lag, leaving room for further upside,” says Glassnode. “However, risk is elevated and the market becomes increasingly sensitive to external shocks. The current pullback aligns with this pattern.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $118,800, up more than 8% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed Bitcoin has recently been trading within a short-term band that has its upper level currently located at $117,000. Bitcoin Is Trading Between These Two Short-Term Holder Price Bands In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about the short-term price band that Bitcoin has been trading inside lately. The band in question is based on two levels relevant to the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: This Altcoin Looks Like PEPE Before It Exploded, Analyst Says The indicator related to the STHs that’s of interest here is the Realized Price, which keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition level of the BTC addresses belonging to the group. When the value of this metric is greater than the asset’s spot price, it means the STHs as a whole can be considered to be in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the coin’s value suggests the dominance of loss among this cohort. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode, which shows the trend in the STH Realized Price and a few lines corresponding to different standard deviations (SDs) from it: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price has interestingly traded in a range defined by two of these lines over the last six months. The lower bound of the range has been the -1 SD and the upper one the +1 SD. The STHs are made up of the new entrants into the sector and fickle-minded traders, so the group tends to easily react to happenings in the market. As such, the cryptocurrency’s price can have some interactions with the STH Realized Price, due to the cohort’s panic buying/selling. From the chart, it’s apparent that the same has been true in this period of consolidation as well. While the indicator has certainly not acted as an absolute support or resistance, the asset has still seen such effects around it in the short term. Related Reading: Ethereum In Demand: ETF Inflow Streak Extends To 7 Weeks Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the metric after finding a rebound at it last month. The level ahead of the asset now is the +1 SD. In this period of sideways movement, it has so far only been able to test this line once. “This level can be seen as the upper band of the short-term price action,” notes the analytics firm. The +1 SD is located at around $117,000 right now. It only remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will test this level in the near future or not. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a surge of more than 3% over the past day that has taken its price to $109,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s recent pullback has sparked fresh debate over whether the rally has run its course. According to market watcher Titan of Crypto, the story isn’t over yet. Related Reading: Tether Enforces Freeze On $12 Million In Tron Funds Over Illicit Activity Bitcoin slipped just 6% from its all‑time high of $112,000, but some analysts pointed to a cooling relative strength index (RSI) and warned of a top. Titan’s take flips that view on its head, arguing that we’re still deep in the meat of the bull cycle. Fractal Cycles Keep Running Titan pointed to a clear pattern in Bitcoin’s last two cycles. Each cycle began with roughly 13 monthly bars—about 396 days—of steep decline. In 2014–15, Bitcoin fell from $1,240 to $161 over that span. Prices then rallied for 35 bars (1,065 days) to hit $19,800 in December 2017. The same 13‑bar slide followed by 35 bars of gains played out again after 2018, ending at $69,000 in 2021. #Bitcoin Bull Market Entering Final Phase ???? As in previous cycles: ~1 year of bear market, followed by ~3 years of expansion.$BTC looks to be in the final leg but not done yet. pic.twitter.com/MGre5ahz3P — Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) June 18, 2025 Momentum And RSI In Focus Some analysts flagged a weakening RSI as a sign that Bitcoin has peaked. That metric can’t be ignored—when momentum wanes, price often takes a breather. Titan’s chart lays down the time‑based pattern, but RSI, trading volume, and on‑chain data give a live read on demand. Bull Run Still Has Room Based on reports, the current cycle’s bullish phase kicked off in January 2023 and sits in the 29th bar this month. Bitcoin has climbed 530% since the start of that run. If history holds, we’ve got at least five more monthly bars of uptrend before the rally tops out around November. Earlier studies even point to a wedge breakout that could send price to about $137,000 before any serious pullback. Big Names See Higher Peaks Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, foresees Bitcoin tearing past the $1 million mark in a fierce upswing, powered by government rollouts, sovereign bond issuances, and an urgent surge in ‘hyperbitcoinization’ before seeing any real correction. Raoul Pal (Real Vision), the former Goldman Sachs executive, shares a familiar bullish view. He has laid out scenarios where Bitcoin hits $1 million by 2030, based on monetary stimulus and limited supply. Related Reading: Iran’s Top Crypto Hub Loses $82 Million To Hackers With Israeli Links—Details Strategy’s Michael Saylor has also said Bitcoin could skyrocket to between $500,000 and $1 million before seeing any real correction. These big names in the crypto industry highlight growing institutional inflows and a looming supply squeeze after the next halving as fuel for an even higher peak. This rally isn’t just a rerun of what we saw in 2017 or 2021. Bitcoin today moves with ETFs, big‑ticket corporate buys, and more traders watching on‑chain signals than ever before. Meanwhile, the latest outlook by CoinCodex sees Bitcoin climbing 5.73% to hit roughly $110,732 by July 19, 2025. Right now, technical signals point to a Neutral mood, while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 57—squarely in Greed territory. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
An analyst has explained how a break beyond the 200-day moving average (MA) might put Bitcoin on the path to a top around the upper band of this indicator. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Currently Has Its Upper Band Located At $208,550 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the Mayer Multiple of Bitcoin. The “Mayer Multiple” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the BTC price and its 200-day MA. One way to interpret the metric is as a measure of the distance away that the asset’s value is from the 200-day MA. Historically, the 200-day MA has served as a boundary between bullish and bearish trends for the cryptocurrency, so how far its price is from this important line can help indicate potential oversold and overbought conditions. Related Reading: 62.8% Of XRP Realized Cap Held By New Investors: Sign Of Fragility? More specifically, a Mayer Multiple value of 2.4 or more has generally signaled that the asset is becoming overheated. Similarly, a value of 0.8 or under can suggest the coin may be due to a bounce back towards the 200-day MA. Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the 200-day MA of Bitcoin, as well as lines corresponding to the 2.4 and 0.8 Mayer Multiple levels, over the past decade: As is visible in the chart, Bitcoin has recently declined under the 200-day MA, situated at $86,900. This means that the Mayer Multiple has now dropped under the 1.0 mark. The next potential support for the cryptocurrency could be located at $69,500, corresponding to the level where the Mayer Multiple would assume a value equal to 0.8. BTC has witnessed a surge in the past day, so it’s currently closer to retesting the 200-day MA than falling back on this support. In the scenario that the asset goes on to retest this mark and successfully break above it, Martinez has noted that the stage might be set for a market top around $208,550. This level, of course, correlates to the 2.4 Mayer Multiple level. So far in the current cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t made a single touch of this level. From the chart, it’s visible that the bull run in the second half of 2021 attained its peak far below the line, but the cryptocurrency still spent time around it during the first half of the year. Related Reading: Stablecoin Activity Shoots Up: Investors Looking To Buy Bitcoin? Given the precedence, it’s possible that the asset would hit this mark at least once in the remaining portion of the current cycle. It only remains to be seen, however, whether the pattern holds, considering the uncertainty in the form of tariffs that’s looming over the market. BTC Price Bitcoin has shown some sharp recovery during the last 24 hours as its price is back to $81,500 after a jump of over 6%. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analytics firm has explained how the data related to the stablecoins could hint at whether the Bitcoin market top is in or not. Stablecoins Have Seen Their Market Cap Touch New Highs Recently In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has discussed about the trend in the combined stablecoin market cap. “Stablecoins” refer to cryptocurrencies that are pegged to a fiat currency (with USD being the most popular choice). Generally, investors make use of these assets when they want to avoid the volatility associated with other coins like Bitcoin. Traders who invest into stablecoins, however, usually do so because they plan to venture (back) into the volatile side of the sector. Related Reading: Dogecoin Can Still Go Parabolic If This Support Holds, Analyst Says As such, the supply of these fiat-tied tokens is often considered as the available ‘dry powder’ for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Given this placement of the stables in the sector, their market cap can be worth keeping an eye on. Here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the stablecoin market cap over the past few years: As displayed in the above graph, the market cap of the stablecoins has been riding an uptrend recently and exploring new all-time highs (ATHs). Following the latest continuation to the increase, the metric has hit a whopping $219 billion. To put things into perspective, the market cap of Ethereum (ETH), the second largest asset in the sector, is just under $233 billion. Thus, the stables are less than $14 billion away. IntoTheBlock has pointed out an interesting pattern related to this indicator. In the chart, it’s visible that the metric’s top last cycle was when it hit $187 billion in April 2022. Evidently, this peak in the market cap of the stables coincided with the start of the bear market. “Historically, stablecoin supply peaks align with cycle highs,” notes the analytics firm. So far in the current cycle, the indicator has continued to rise, despite the decline in the asset’s price. If the previous trend is anything to go by, this could be an indication that Bitcoin and other coins are yet to enter a bear market. That said, the latest market conditions haven’t exactly been entirely bullish. The most positive scenario occurs whenever both BTC and the stablecoins enjoy an increase in their market caps. In such a period, a net amount of fresh capital inflows are entering into the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Altcoin Volume Fades—Investor Exhaustion Setting In? At present, though, the stablecoins have been rising while Bitcoin and others have been falling. This could potentially imply a rotation of capital has been occurring, rather than fresh inflows. During the mid-2021 correction, a similar pattern emerged, but the market was able to find its footing and the second half of the rally took place. It now remains to be seen whether something similar would happen for Bitcoin this time as well, or if the market will go the way it did in 2022. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $84,700, down over 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
The community analyst at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out how this Bitcoin indicator has been aligning with price tops. Bitcoin Binance Whale To Exchange Flow Shows An Interesting Pattern In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Inflow for the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The “Exchange Whale Inflow” here refers to an on-chain metric that measures the total amount of the asset that the whale entities are transferring to a given centralized exchange. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: $900 Million In BTC Leaves Exchanges When the value of this indicator is high, it means the whales are depositing a large number of tokens to the platform. Such a trend can be a sign that these large entities are looking to sell, which can be a bearish sign for the asset’s price. On the other hand, the metric being low suggests this cohort may be accumulating or just not planning to distribute, which can naturally be a bullish sign for BTC. Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Inflow for Binance over the last couple of months: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day Bitcoin Exchange Whale Inflow for Binance has recently witnessed a sharp climb, which suggests large deposits to the platform have been on the rise. Maartunn has discovered a pattern related to what usually happens whenever the metric shows a trend like this one. From the chart, it’s visible that spikes in the indicator have come around tops in the cryptocurrency’s price. This relationship hasn’t been exact, but it’s true that BTC has witnessed some kind of peak shortly before or shortly after a strong surge in the Binance Exchange Whale Inflow. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Price Range Could Be The Bulls’ Final Defense Line, Report Says Whales are the largest of investors in the sector and Binance is the largest exchange, so it makes sense that the combined behavior related to the two would have noticeable implications for Bitcoin. Following the recent increase, the 30-day Binance Exchange Whale Inflow has reached a value of $7.3 billion, which is the highest that it has been in around three months. It now remains to be seen whether these high deposits would have a similar effect on the asset as before or not. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to display volatility in both directions during the last few days as its price has been wobbling up and down, with neither bulls nor bears gaining control. At present, the asset is trading around $89,500. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has pointed out how the Bitcoin Tom Demark (TD) Sequential has just given a signal that could be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin TD Sequential Is Flashing A Buy Signal Right Now In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about the TD Sequential signal that has just formed for Bitcoin on its daily chart. The “TD Sequential” here refers to an indicator from technical analysis (TA) that’s used for locating probable tops and bottoms in any asset’s price. Related Reading: Just 10 Holders Control 61.3% Of Shiba Inu Supply: How This Compares With Other Altcoins The indicator consists of two phases: setup and countdown. The end of each of these phases is assumed to coincide with a signal for a turnaround in the cryptocurrency. In the first phase, the setup, candles of the same color in the chart are counted up to nine. These candles don’t need to be consecutive, just that there should be nine of them. Once the ninth candle is in, the setup is said to be ‘complete,’ and the price can be considered to have reached a reversal. The second phase, the countdown, picks up right where the setup left. It works almost exactly in the same manner, with the one exception being that candles here are counted up to 13 instead. Following these 13 candles, the asset arrives at another point of likely trend exhaustion. Naturally, where the price would go after the end of either phase depends on the polarity of the candles involved in the phase’s completion. Green candles imply a reversal to the downside, while red ones suggest the formation of a bottom. Bitcoin has recently formed a TD Sequential signal of the first type. Here’s the chart shared by Martinez that shows the pattern in the coin’s daily price: From the graph, it’s visible that the 24-hour price of Bitcoin has finished a TD Sequential setup with nine red candles recently, which suggests the asset may be due a bullish reversal. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted the last signal that the indicator gave for the cryptocurrency. It would appear that this previous signal was a sell one and it was also right on the mark as it coincided with last month’s price top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Still In Bull Market, On-Chain Indicator Confirms Given this pattern, it’s possible that the latest TD Sequential signal would also end up holding for Bitcoin. If so, it might finally help the asset shove off its recent bearish winds. Speaking of the TD Sequential, another top coin, Cardano (ADA), has also formed a signal recently, as Martinez has pointed out in another X post. As displayed in the below chart, the pattern is a bullish one for ADA as well. BTC Price Bitcoin slipped under the $95,000 level yesterday, but the asset has made some quick recovery in the past day as its price is now trading around $97,700. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com
Yesterday, the NASDAQ slid 3% as China’s low-cost AI model, DeepSeek, sent shockwaves through the tech industry, triggering a steep sell-off in US chipmakers. While Bitcoin (BTC) also dipped to a low of $97,777, the flagship cryptocurrency has since recovered most of its losses, trading above the key $100,000 price level. Bitcoin Holding Strong Despite NASDAQ Sell-Off Bitcoin’s resiliency amid the stock market sell-off is ‘extremely bullish’, says Bitwise’s European Head of Research, Andre Dragosch. They highlighted that the leading digital asset has outperformed NASDAQ over the past two days and is currently showing limited downside risk. It is worth noting that BTC has gained close to $5,000 since yesterday’s dip to $97,777, trading at $102,758 at the time of writing. In contrast, the S&P 500 closed yesterday’s last trading session down 1.5%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Drops 93% From December Peak – What’s Next For BTC? The decoupling between BTC and the stock market is further evidenced by differing investor sentiments. According to the ‘Fear & Greed Index’, the stock market currently sits at 44/100, indicating lingering fear among investors after yesterday’s market downturn. Conversely, the Index’s reading for the crypto market stands at 72/100, suggesting a sentiment of greed toward digital assets. However, this could also indicate that the crypto market is lagging behind the stock market and may experience a further drawdown while the stock market seeks stability. Meanwhile, Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, shared a post on X, viewing BTC’s brief slump as a dip-buying opportunity and adding to his BTC position. Alan noted: That wick to $97,750 should not shake your confidence in this Bitcoin bull run, but it should remind you that a deep correction can, and most likely will, develop when the market gets over hyped. Similarly, seasoned crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital shared insights on Bitcoin’s current price momentum, stating that it is “still relatively early” in BTC’s parabolic phase for this market cycle. Historically, this phase has lasted about 300 days on average, and BTC is currently at day 82. BTC Top Not In Yet? Although BTC reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20, some analysts believe the top is not yet in for the cryptocurrency. According to analysis by Stockmoney Lizards, BTC could reach a cycle peak of $400,000 by November 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast Of $150,000 ‘Too Low’ Amid Rising Adoption, Crypto Trader Says A further rally for BTC seems plausible, as ‘whales’ have started accumulating the cryptocurrency since Donald Trump’s inauguration. Other projections suggest BTC may peak at $249,000 under the Trump administration. On a longer-term horizon, BTC could reach as high as $1.5 million according to Metcalfe’s Law. At press time, BTC trades at $102,758, up 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
A classic Bitcoin price technical indicator suggests BTC’s price will peak within six months, while more downside could be expected in the short term.
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could see a top beyond the $168,500 mark based on the historical trend in this indicator. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Could Reveal Location Of Next Price Top In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed where the BTC top could lie based on the Mayer Multiple. The “Mayer Multiple” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average (MA). The 200-day MA has historically proven to be a significant level for BTC, often serving as the boundary between bearish and bullish trends. As such, the distance of the price from this MA, which is what the Mayer Multiple measures, can be useful to watch. Related Reading: XRP Could Be The Altcoin To Recover Quickly, CryptoQuant Analyst Explains Why When the Mayer Multiple has a high value, it means the asset is trading significantly above the 200-day MA, which could imply potential overbought conditions. On the other hand, the metric being low could suggest a bullish reversal may be due for BTC. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple represented as an oscillator over the history of the cryptocurrency: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is currently around halfway to the level that has usually signaled overheated conditions for the coin’s price. The level in question is situated at the 2.4 mark. When the metric assumes this value, the price of the asset becomes 2.4 times the 200-day MA. In the same chart, a price line corresponding to this level is also shown. It’s apparent that Bitcoin formed some of its major historical tops when it broke through the line. So far in the current cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t been able to retest the level yet. And it may not be able to do so for a while, either since the Mayer Multiple would only equal 2.4 when the cryptocurrency’s price rises to around the $168,500 level. Related Reading: XRP, Solana Among Altcoins Witnessing TD Buy Signal, Analyst Reveals An important level relevant to the Mayer Multiple that BTC did retest during this cycle was the 0.8 line. Just like the 2.4 level serves as a signal for potential overheated conditions, this line can imply the coin may be reaching a bottom. Bitcoin successfully found a rebound at the line earlier in the year, confirming that a transition towards a bear market hadn’t taken place yet. It now remains to be seen whether the asset would go on to retest the top level next or if another plunge to this bottom level will happen first. BTC Price Bitcoin slipped toward the $92,000 level on Friday, but it seems the asset has made some recovery since then, as it sits at $96,000 to kick off the new week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders are selling. Here’s whether the current level of selloff is enough for a price top or not. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Selling Big Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about the historical trend in the holdings of the long-term holders relative to the Bitcoin top. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for more than 155 days. The LTHs represent one of the two main divisions of the BTC market done on the basis of holding time, with the other group being known as the short-term holders (STHs). Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Now In Selling Mode For A Year: Should You Be Concerned? Historically, the latter cohort has proven to contain the weak hands of the market, while the former is made up of the HODLers who barely react to rallies and crashes in the price. As such, selling from the STHs is usually not of any note, but that from the LTHs can be, as it’s not a particularly common event. One way to keep track of the behavior of the diamond hands is through their Net Position Change. The Net Position Change is an on-chain metric that measures the total amount of Bitcoin entering into or exiting out of the LTH cohort. Below is the chart for the indicator shared by the analyst that shows the trend in its value over the history of the cryptocurrency. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has witnessed a sharp decline into the negative territory in recent weeks, which implies a net amount of supply has been leaving the cohort. This isn’t the first time this year that the indicator has shown this trend, as something similar was also observed back during the first quarter of this year. In the chart, Martinez has highlighted this and the other older instances of this trend occurring. It would seem that the major selloffs from the LTHs have generally coincided with some sort of top in the cryptocurrency. “Interestingly, in 2017 and 2021, their biggest sell-offs occurred right before the final leg up,” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Heating Up Again: Brace For Impact? Thus, if the current bull market is going to show anything similar, then it’s possible that the current LTH selloff may in fact only be the start of that final leg up that’s going to lead to the cyclical top for Bitcoin. The indicator is also currently not as negative as during the largest red spikes of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, which could be another indication that the top isn’t in just yet. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the same pattern would repeat this time as well or not. BTC Price Bitcoin is back in all-time high (ATH) discovery mode as its price has just set a new record above the $107,000 milestone. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin investors’ profit-taking has observed a huge decline since last month’s top, a sign that could be positive for BTC. Bitcoin Realized Profit To Exchanges Now Down To $277 Million Per Day According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, trader profit-taking in the Bitcoin market has cooled off significantly […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin investors who purchased at the top are capitulating following BTC’s drawdown under the $93,000 level. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Just Sold Big At A Loss As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the latest BTC crash has triggered panic among the short-term holders. The “short-term holders” (STHs) are the Bitcoin […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin profits held by the ‘trader’ group have shot up recently. Here’s whether they are as high as at the last top. 1 To 3 Months Old Bitcoin Investors Are Currently Up 47% As CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno explained in a new post on X, traders’ unrealized profits have […]
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has continued to flow out of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance even after its latest high above $93,000. Bitcoin Binance Netflow Has Been Seeing Negative Spikes Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Exchange Netflow for Binance has registered negative values recently. The “Exchange Netflow” here […]
Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has recently seen a significant uplift as the cryptocurrency’s price has set new records. Bitcoin Has Just Set A New All-Time High Above $93,000 Bitcoin had seen a bit of a pause in its bull run yesterday, but the uptrend has already returned for its price in spectacular fashion today as the coin has now achieved a new all-time high (ATH) beyond the $93,000 mark. Related Reading: XRP NVT Ratio Has Been High Recently: What It Means The chart below shows how the coin’s recent trajectory has looked. Following this rally, Bitcoin is sitting in weekly gains of over 24%. As is generally the case, the other assets in the sector have also followed BTC in this run, with Ethereum (ETH), the largest of the lot, garnering similar profits. However, many altcoins have outperformed these two giants, with Dogecoin (DOGE) particularly standing out with its impressive 120% positive returns. Whenever the market goes through such a bullish phase, investor sentiment shifts towards the better. The same has also happened this time, as the Fear & Greed Index shows. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Now At A Value Of 84 The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment among the investors in Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency markets. This metric uses a numeric scale from zero to a hundred to represent the trader mentality. Values above the 53 mark imply the average investor is showing greed, while those under 47 suggest the presence of fear in the market. The region between these two cutoffs corresponds to a net neutral sentiment. Other than these three main sentiments, there are also two special ones: extreme greed and fear. The former occurs at values above 75, while the latter is under 25. Now, here is what the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is like right now: As is visible above, the index is sitting at a value of 84. This naturally indicates that investor sentiment is firmly in extreme greed. Historically, Bitcoin and other coins in the sector have tended to move opposite to the majority’s expectations. The probability of a contrary move also grows the crowd’s confidence. As such, whenever the Fear & Greed Index has gone too far off into one extreme, a reversal has become likely for BTC. This effect was also witnessed during the top back in March of this year. During that top, the indicator was sitting at 88, which isn’t much higher than the latest value. Thus, it’s possible that, at least from the perspective of sentiment, Bitcoin may be starting to become overheated. Related Reading: Dogecoin Explodes 150% As Shark & Whale Buying Returns That said, past bull markets have generally seen the cryptocurrency sustain in this extreme zone for a while before the actual cyclical top is reached, so the rally could still have room to run. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin investors are now carrying 121% profits on average. Here’s whether this has been enough for a top in the past. Bitcoin Profitability Index Is Currently Sitting Around 221% In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index. The “Average Profitability Index” is an indicator for BTC that compares the asset’s spot value with its realized price. The “realized price” here refers to a measure of the cost basis or acquisition value of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. This metric’s value is determined using on-chain data, with the last price at which each coin in circulation was transacted on the blockchain being taken as its current cost basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Enters Danger Zone: Investors Now Extremely Greedy When the Average Profitability Index is greater than 100%, it means the spot price of the cryptocurrency is currently higher than its realized price. Such a trend suggests the average investor is holding a net amount of profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold implies the BTC market as a whole is carrying coins at a net unrealized loss. Naturally, the index being exactly equal to 100% indicates the holders as a whole are just breaking-even on their investment. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index over the past decade: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index has registered a notable increase recently as the cryptocurrency’s run to the new all-time high (ATH) price has occurred. The indicator has now reached a value of around 221%, which suggests the investors are in a significant amount of gains. More particularly, the BTC addresses as a whole are in a net profit of 121%. Generally, the higher the profits of the holders get, the more likely they become to fall to the allure of profit-taking. The current Average Profitability Index level is high, but it’s uncertain if it’s high enough for a mass selloff to become a risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Ready For ‘Phase 2’ Of This Historical Bull Pattern In the chart, the analyst has marked how high the metric went at the time of the tops of the previous bull runs. It would appear that 2017 peaked at 460%, while 2021 at 395%. So far in the current cycle, the highest that the index has gone was 272%, which happened during the top back in March of this year. Given the fact that the indicator is yet to hit this level, let alone the peaks from the last cycles, it’s possible that Bitcoin still has sufficient room to run, before a top becomes probable. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,200, up more than 9% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Profitability Index is at 202% right now. Here’s how this compares with past bull runs of the asset. Bitcoin Average Profitability Index Has Been Rising Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. discussed the latest trend in the Average Profitability Index of Bitcoin. The “Average Profitability Index” is an on-chain indicator that tells us about how the spot price of the asset compares against its realized price. Related Reading: Ethereum Leverage Ratio Reaches Extreme Levels, What It Means The “realized price” here is a measure of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin network. The Average Profitability Index is calculated as a percentage, with the 100% mark corresponding to the spot price being equal to the realized price. When the value of this indicator is greater than 100%, it means the asset is currently trading above the cost basis of the average investor, so the overall market could be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being under this cutoff suggests the holders as a whole are carrying their coins at a net unrealized loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index has been above 100% since last year, which suggests the investors as a whole have been enjoying profits. The indicator’s value had spiked to particularly high values earlier in this year when the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH) had occurred. With the latest recovery run that the coin has seen, the indicator has been picking up once again, although it’s still a notable distance away from the level seen during the ATH. At present, the BTC Average Profitability Index is floating around 202%, which implies the spot price is double that of the realized price. Historically, the indicator reaching extreme levels has generally led to tops for the asset. This is because the investors’ temptation to participate in profit-taking increases the larger their gains. “When the index rises above 300%, investors are likely to start taking profits actively,” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Active Addresses Finally Growing Again: Bullish Sign? The chart shows that the last two times that the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index surpassed this 300% mark was during the heights of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. Thus, according to this historical pattern, Bitcoin’s current bullish period may not end until the indicator enters the zone above 300%. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,400, up 1% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has nearly turned to extreme greed as the cryptocurrency’s price has rallied to the $68,000 mark. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Currently Inside The Greed Region The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. This index makes use of the data of the following five factors in order to determine the sentiment: trading volume, volatility, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Once found, it represents the market mentality as a score between 0 and 100. When the metric has a value greater than 53, it means the traders as a whole share a sentiment of greed right now. On the other hand, it being under the 47 mark implies the dominance of fear in the market. The territory in-between these two corresponds to a net neutral mentality. Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Sees Fastest Rise In 5 Months: Brace For More Volatility? Besides these three main sentiment zones, there are also two special regions called the extreme fear and the extreme greed. The former of these occurs at 25 and under, while the latter at 75 and above. Now, here is what the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been like: As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 73, which suggests that the investors are currently showing a significant amount of greed. This is a notable change from how the mood in the market was last week, as the index had declined into the fear zone then. The below chart shows how the value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has changed over the past year: From the graph, it’s visible that this latest uplift in the sentiment, which has come as a result of the asset’s rally to $68,000, has taken the index to the highest value since the end of July. Back then, the high sentiment values had led to a top for the cryptocurrency. This type of pattern is something that has actually been witnessed throughout history. It turns out that Bitcoin has a tendency to move in the direction opposite to what the crowd is expecting and the probability of such a contrary move increases the more the traders lean towards one side. In the extreme regions, this likelihood is the strongest, so tops and bottoms have often formed when the investors have shared these sentiments. The current value of the index is just outside the extreme greed zone, so a top could become likely for the asset should the investor mentality continue to improve. Related Reading: Bitcoin Analyst Reveals Best On-Chain Metric For ‘Day-To-Day Trading’ The sentiment may also not even have to improve further for such a scenario to follow out, as the top back in July had occurred when the index had a value of 74, only one unit greater than the current one. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $68,000, up more than 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
The trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio may point towards a top being yet to occur in the current cycle. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hasn’t Yet Hit The Peaks Of Previous Cycles In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock discusses the historical trend of the Bitcoin MVRV […]
According to the trend in an on-chain indicator, an analyst has explained how Bitcoin may still need to reach the top of the current bull cycle. Bitcoin aSOPR Hasn’t Yet Reached Levels Associated With Past Cycle Tops As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is yet to go as high as during the tops of the previous cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bears Crushed: $100M In Crypto Shorts See Flush As BTC Breaks $63,000 The “SOPR” refers to a popular on-chain indicator that basically tells us whether cryptocurrency investors are selling their tokens at a profit or loss right now. This metric works by going through the blockchain history of each coin sold to see what price it was transacted at before. If this previous price for any coin was less than the price it’s being sold now, then its sale is leading to profit realization. Similarly, coins of the opposite type would imply loss-taking. The SOPR calculates the ratio between such profits and losses being realized across the network to provide a net situation. When the indicator’s value is greater than 1, the investors are selling their coins at a net profit. On the other hand, values under this mark suggest the dominance of loss realization in the market. In the context of the current discussion, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest here, but rather a modified form called the “aSOPR.” This indicator adjusts the SOPR data to exclude transactions of coins made within an hour of their previous transfers (hence the “adjusted” in the front of the name). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin aSOPR over the past few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day EMA Bitcoin aSOPR had observed a rise alongside the rally earlier in the year. This implies that investors had ramped up their profit-taking as the coin’s price surged to a new all-time high (ATH). With the bearish momentum that BTC has been facing since then, though, the indicator has also seen a cooldown. At the peak of the profit realization spree, the indicator had crossed the 1.05 mark, but now it has come down to just 1.01. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Stalls As HODLers Apply Selling Pressure As the quant has highlighted in the chart, the bull run tops in 2017 and 2021 occurred as the indicator approached a value of 1.1. The recent high in the indicator has been significantly below this mark. The peak level seen in the recent rally was similar to the one witnessed during the peak of the April 2019 rally. This recovery surge from the previous cycle had only been a prelude to the real bull run that would come later, so BTC may also see something similar play out this time. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a rally of around 5% in the past 24 hours, taking its price back above the $63,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
A historical pattern currently forming in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator could suggest that a top may be near for the asset, if not already in. Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Is Forming A Historical Top Pattern Right Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about a pattern regarding the SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss right now. Related Reading: Ethereum To See Fresh Move Soon? What Futures Data Says When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that profit-selling is dominant in the market currently. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the average holder is moving coins at some net loss. In the context of the current topic, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a different version called the SOPR Ratio. The name may be a bit confusing as SOPR already contains a “ratio,” but the latter ratio here corresponds to the fact that this indicator compares the SOPR of two Bitcoin cohorts: the long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). These investor groups make up for the two main divisions of the BTC market done based on holding time, with 155 days being the cutoff between the two. The STHs are those who bought within the past 155 days, while the LTHs include the HODLers carrying coins for longer than this timespan. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have turned around towards the downside recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin SOPR Ratio had been heading up throughout 2023 and early parts of 2024, but recently, the metric has hit a top and reversed its direction. Whenever the SOPR Ratio is higher than 1, it means the LTHs, who are generally known to be resolute hands, are participating in a higher degree of profit-taking than the STHs. It would appear that as BTC had observed its rally and approached a new all-time high (ATH), these diamond hands had started harvesting some of the gains they had earned over their long holding time. And once the price set a new ATH, these investors participated in peak profit-taking. Since then, their profit-selling has been dropping off, although they are still harvesting notably higher gains than the STHs. In the chart, the analyst highlights how this pattern has been repeated at different points in the asset’s history. While the scale of the peak LTH profit-taking has been heading down over the cycles, it’s still true that the metric’s top has coincided with tops in the price during each of them. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $1: Analyst Thinks Dream Milestone Could Be Hit In Coming Weeks As the line drawn by the quant suggests, it’s possible that the latest peak in the metric may have in fact been the top for this cycle. This is only, however, assuming that the pattern of diminishing returns in the indicator holds to the exact degree judged by the line. It’s possible that the peak will still be higher than the current levels, while at the same time being lower than the previous cycle’s peak, thus still being in-line with the historical Bitcoin pattern. Whatever the case be, though, the fact that the SOPR ratio has apparently hit a top could still be a bearish signal, if only in the short term. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making some steady recovery over the last few days as its price has now surged back above $66,100. Looks like the price of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross indicator attained overheated values coinciding with the recent local top in the price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Surged To 3.17 During Recent Peak An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the NVT Golden Cross may have served as an indicator of the recent top in cryptocurrency prices. The “NVT” refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and transaction volume (both in USD). This ratio is generally used to determine whether the asset’s price is fair or not. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: $5.2 Billion Sold At Loss When the indicator has a high value, the asset’s price (the market cap) is high compared to its utility (the transaction volume). Such a trend may suggest that the coin could be overvalued currently. On the other hand, the low metric could suggest the network isn’t valued fairly compared to its high ability to transact capital, and as such, its price may be due to an uplift. In the context of the current discussion, the NVT itself isn’t interesting, but rather, a modified version called the NVT Golden Cross is. This metric compares the short-term trend of the NVT (10-day moving average) against its long-term trend (30-day MA). Like the NVT, this variant is also used to estimate the fairness of the asset. Historically, values greater than 2.2 have been a signal that BTC is overheated, as the short-term trend is notably outpacing the long-term at these levels. Similarly, values under the -1.6 level may indicate that the cryptocurrency is undervalued; hence, its price may likely form a bottom and find a rebound soon. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross rose to relatively high levels earlier. This growth happened as the asset’s price rallied towards the $71,000 level. The metric had touched the 3.17 mark in this surge, which suggests the coin may have become too overpriced. Indeed, the asset followed this by observing a sharp drawdown, which took it back under the $65,000 level. As the quant has marked in the chart, a similar pattern of the NVT Golden Cross hitting these high levels and resulting in a price correction was observed at different points over the last few years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders No Longer Extremely Greedy: Rebound Signal? Since the latest overheated signal, the indicator has cooled off alongside the Bitcoin price, although it hasn’t gone towards the negative side yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has now climbed back to $67,800. Looks like the price of the asset has seen some uplift over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Here’s what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests about where the market is currently in terms of a top. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Seen A Decline To The 2.34 Level According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the BTC MVRV ratio surged high earlier this year as the cryptocurrency rally took place. The “MVRV ratio” is a popular indicator that tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset’s supply at the current spot price, while the latter is an on-chain capitalization model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern The realized cap measures the total sum of the value of the cryptocurrency’s supply, assuming that each coin in circulation has its true value at the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain rather than the current spot value. One way to interpret the realized cap is that since it takes into account the buying price of every token in circulation (assuming that the last transaction of every token was indeed the point at which it last changed hands), it essentially sums up the total capital the investors have invested in the asset. As such, the MVRV ratio tells us how the total value that Bitcoin investors are carrying right now (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been turning down in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has had a value greater than 1 for a while now. When the indicator has such values, the market cap is greater than the realized cap, and hence, the investors carry net profits. With the latest rally in the asset, this indicator has surged to relatively high levels, a natural consequence of the holders’ profits ballooning up with the price surge. After the recent drawdown in the price, though, the MVRV ratio has also turned itself around, as it’s now heading down. At present, the ratio has a value of around 2.34. “Traditionally, an MVRV ratio above 3 has been a reliable marker for predicting price peaks,” notes IntoTheBlock. So far, in the current rally, the metric hasn’t crossed this mark. It did come close recently, but the latest decline has meant it has gained a bit more distance to the level. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode Why have tops historically occurred at high values of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio? The answer is that investors in profits are more likely to participate in selling, and this temptation to take profits only increases as their gains grow larger. Because of this, selloffs are most probable when the market is holding extreme levels of profits, which is exactly what high MVRV ratio values reflect. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,200, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The price of the asset appears to have rebounded over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com