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The latest Bitcoin (BTC) rally is already showing signs of losing momentum, and several analysts warn that a larger correction may be closer.  AlejandroBTC—posting on X (formerly Twitter)—called the current price behavior “a dead cat bounce,” suggesting the recent rebound may be near its end and that Bitcoin could be set up for a much deeper drop. Bear Market Still In Play? In AlejandroBTC’s “most optimistic” framing, the move above $82,000 could have actually marked the top for the cryptocurrency. If that scenario plays out, he warned it could trigger a major downturn. His estimate points to a potential 50% decline toward the $40,000 region.  In his view, that area would not just be another dip, but potentially where a more durable “solid base” could form—effectively implying a market bottom could be built from there rather than continuing to spiral lower. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Set To Hit $5 Amid New Influx From Smart Money? Another analyst, CryptoCon, offered a different way of thinking about where Bitcoin might be in its cycle. CryptoCon cited the average timeline for past bear markets, saying that based on the historical average of 391 days, the current bear market is estimated to be 55% complete.  According to his calculation, the market is 216 days into the cycle. He added that the lowest drawdown point so far is around -52%, which he described as about 25% higher than the previous cycle’s low.  Put plainly, CryptoCon argues that, if history is the guide, Bitcoin may not yet be near the typical drawdown levels many past bear markets eventually reached—and that means there’s still room for additional downside before the “usual” worst-case territory appears. Why This Week Could Mark ‘The Top For Bitcoin’ That bearish case was echoed by market expert CryptoRover, who suggested that this week “might be the top for Bitcoin.” Rover’s point was not only about current price behavior, but also about historical repetition.  He pointed to examples from past years: the pattern played out in 2014, leading to a 65% crash; in 2018, leading to a 64% crash; and in 2022, leading to a 52% crash. Based on that track record, Rover implied there are reasons to think something similar could occur again. To support his view that risk may be rising as the cycle matures, CryptoRover also outlined three catalysts he says could contribute to downside if they align with the current timing. The first is an open interest (OI) spike. He said Bitcoin recorded the largest monthly OI spike of 2026, and that the same pattern appeared in altcoins as traders try to chase the latest momentum. In his framework, when OI rises this quickly, it can often be followed by a liquidation cascade—especially if prices reverse and heavily leveraged positions get forced out. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Breakout Setup Strengthens As Bulls Regain Full Control The second factor is the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair being confirmed this week. Rover claimed that every time a new Fed chair has been confirmed, Bitcoin has tended to drop.  The third factor is stock euphoria. CryptoRover said equities have been “absolutely parabolic” recently and that a cooldown is likely. He pointed out that when stocks hit new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins stayed well below their own highs.  He concluded that if stocks undergo a correction, crypto—still lagging compared to the sector’s performance—could face increased pressure. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On Wednesday, Bitcoin reached its highest level since January, crossing above the $82,000 threshold. However, one analyst has warned that the latest upswing may not be driven by genuine demand.  Instead, he describes it as a so-called “speculative trap” and points to signals suggesting there may be little underlying momentum before the market potentially retraces sharply. $83,000 Condition For Bitcoin In a post on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst OxPepesso argued that BTC is moving in a way that looks similar to the “S&P 500 AI bubble,” implying that Bitcoin is largely tracking broader stock-market sentiment rather than showing distinct, organic crypto drivers. OxPepesso suggested that, with the equity market surging, Bitcoin is essentially being pulled along as risk appetite rises—rather than benefiting from meaningful, independent on-chain or spot demand. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Warns: If CLARITY Act Markup Slips, Chances Fall ‘Precipitously’ The core of the analyst’s skepticism centers on what he says is happening beneath the price action. According to OxPepesso, network activity has just hit a two-year low, and actual spot demand is “literally negative.”  In his view, that combination would mean the rally lacks the kind of real buying pressure that usually sustains higher prices. He added that the current push appears to be propped up by futures speculation, and warned that a single geopolitical development could quickly sour sentiment—potentially crashing both markets at once. Until Bitcoin reclaims its previous range low above $83,000, according to the analyst, the rally should be treated as a fakeout—not a durable trend. In that analogy, he cited a range high around $94,500 that was previously reached, rejected, and then “flushed” down into what he described as a weaker bottom near $60,000.  The analyst’s key condition is clear: a clean daily close above $83,000 would “flip the rally real,” while anything below it, in his framework, could set up the market for a sharp drop. Seller Pressure Ahead? While OxPepesso’s remarks emphasize caution, another lens on the market comes from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which highlighted data points it says align with an attempt at structural improvement.  In a new report, CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79100.  CryptoQuant’s interpretation is that maintaining holdings above these levels could signal a short-lived deep value phase, and it also pointed to $85,200 as the next key resistance area. Related Reading: Strategy Reports Q1 Results: Over $12 Billion In Red Ink—Here Are The Key Figures Contrary to OxPepesso’s analysis, the firm also said that spot demand and Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are rebuilding, which it interprets as bulls still having control—at least for the moment.  Still, the report emphasizes that Bitcoin is approaching a ceiling where additional supply may re-emerge, making the next phase more about whether buyers can keep pace as price reaches zones where sellers are likely to become more active. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had retraced toward $81,538 following its earlier push above $82,000 on Wednesday.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a notable 21% recovery over the thirty-day timeframe, pushing the largest cryptocurrency in the market above the $81,000 level for the first time since January. Now, BTC is approaching one key resistance, which—if surpassed with a daily close—could open the door to another leg higher. Bitcoin Targets $89,000 And $94,000 Technical analyst Ali Martinez pointed to this momentum in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin continues to show “structural strength.”  Martinez referenced a bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossover on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that occurred on April 13. Since that weekly signal appeared, BTC has gained roughly 15% in a relatively steady grind, reinforcing the idea that the trend may be shifting rather than just bouncing randomly. Related Reading: XRP Near $1.40—What Could Spark A Move To $1.70, And How The CLARITY Act Fits In What makes the weekly Bitcoin MACD crossover particularly notable is how it has behaved historically. According to Martinez’s recap of earlier instances, the same kind of crossover preceded major multi-month rallies in prior cycles.  The October 23, 2023 crossover was followed by a 147% rally. Another example on October 14, 2024 led to a 75% rise, while the May 5, 2025 crossover resulted in a 35% rally.  Even with the broader bullish backdrop, the near-term chart still presents a key test. Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin is moving into the vicinity of the 200-day simple moving average (200SMA), currently around $83,000.  He described this area as the most important psychological and structural barrier on the daily chart. In his view, a clean daily close above this level could open the door to a macro expansion, first toward $89,000, with a secondary target near $94,000. Bull Market Support Band Reclaimed Adding to the technical picture, market expert Sam Daodu also flagged a separate indicator involving Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band (currently at $79,000), which is built from the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).  Daodu noted that whenever Bitcoin reclaimed this band after spending an extended period below it, the market tended to follow with strong rallies—often reaching 50% or more within a few months.  Applying that pattern, the bullish path Daodu implied could take BTC toward approximately $121,000, which would still sit just below the all-time high region around $126,000 reached in October of last year.  Related Reading: DTCC Tokenized Securities Roadmap: Pilot In July, Scale Up In October—With Big Names Like Ripple Still, even with bullish signals lining up, the situation is not considered settled. The reports emphasize that Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above these levels to maintain the momentum.  It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin can continue pressing into resistance successfully, or whether the latest surge above $81,000 could be followed by another correction. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price fails to break above the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market stuck in this range, attention is shifting to the possibility that Bitcoin could finally shift direction, potentially ending the current compression.  A major part of this discussion is the CME gap around $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing over periods when traditional trading is closed, such as weekends, while crypto trades continuously.  Drop To $60,000 Still On The Table Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on its 12-hour chart. The expectation being highlighted is that over $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level.  Even with that strong technical catalyst, Fencer also warned that the outcome may not remain purely bullish. He cautioned that the move could set up a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? The broader consequence could be a decline toward February lows around $60,000. If that scenario plays out, it would imply roughly a 26% retrace from that level, potentially reigniting bearish sentiment across the market. However, another perspective is coming from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional argues for a different outlook, contesting the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past week is driven only by leverage. The report frames the rally as potentially stronger than it looks, pointing to real demand rather than simply borrowing and forced positioning.  What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally? The study lists several indicators supporting its view. Rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are said to be near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand. It also notes accumulation by long-term holders, which is described as concentrating supply into “strong hands.”  While short liquidations can help trigger upward momentum, the report argues that similar squeezes have historically happened before—yet sustained rallies tend to last when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside A key area highlighted by the institutional framing is approximately $80,000, described as the short-term holder cost basis. According to this interpretation, reclaiming around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening.  If Bitcoin fails and rejects that level, the implication would be that weakness could persist rather than a durable uptrend forming. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical juncture as it presses against its nearest resistance wall at $80,000, which, according to some analysts, if not cleared, may send BTC back below $70,000.   What’s happening under the surface is also getting more complicated, with CryptoQuant pointing to a key inflection point where two major groups of marginal buyers are effectively testing their own break-even prices at the same time. Why $80,000 Is The Decision Point In a recent CryptoQuant report, the focus was on exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and short-term whales—two cohorts that tend to influence price action when conditions become borderline.  The Realized Price of Bitcoin ETF investors was reported at about $76,4000 as of April 21. That cohort has been underwater since January 30 until April 23’s surge back above $77,000, meaning they had carried unrealized losses for nearly three months.  Related Reading: 4-Figure XRP: How High Will The Price Be If Ripple Captures 50% Of SWIFT? A similar dynamic is showing up with short-term holder whales. Their Realized Price sits at approximately $79,600, which is slightly above the spot price at the time of writing, meaning that they have been trading in loss territory since November 1.  CryptoQuant noted that With Bitcoin moving in a $76,000 to $80,000 range, both ETF-related demand and short-term whale positioning appear to be hovering near their respective “decision points.”  Two Scenarios For Bitcoin Ahead In this context, the key $80,000 level is not just a chart marker—it’s portrayed as the psychological and financial boundary between relief and renewed losses. Whether Bitcoin can withstand the sell pressure that can follow at these thresholds—especially if the market rejects the level—could shape the structure of BTC’s next directional move, potentially defining how the second quarter develops.  Related Reading: CEO Calls CLARITY Act ‘Horrible Bill,’ Warns Of Prolonged Crypto Bear Market Ahead Analyst Ash Crypto added a more direct two scenarios outlook tied to the $80,000 wall. In the first scenario, Bitcoin closes above $80,000 on a daily basis and confirms that this rally has real follow-through. If that occurs, Ash Crypto’s view is that BTC could then surge toward a target range of $86,000 to $90,000.  The second scenario is the opposite: if Bitcoin gets rejected near $80,000, the analyst expects a sharp pullback back into a $74,000 to $68,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed higher on Wednesday, extending its recovery rally to levels not seen since late January. The price rose to just under 5% above the $79,000 mark after President Trump announced he would extend a ceasefire with Iran.  Can Bitcoin Sustain The Rally?  Market analysts say attention is shifting quickly from the breakout itself to the next set of hurdles higher up the chart. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said he believes the $75,000 to $86,000 zone does not look “saturated” with heavy resistance.  In his view, if there are no major negative developments, Bitcoin could maintain upward momentum. He also flagged $86,000 as a critical point, though, because the 200-day moving average (MA) is expected to sit near that level and lines up with an important pivot area.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom At $63,000? Grayscale Research Flags Feb. 5 As This Cycle’s Low Others emphasized that near-term support has been holding up, which could help Bitcoin keep pressing higher. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said the $75,000 level should act as solid support.  She added that a clean move above $80,000 would likely open the door to “significant” further upside, suggesting traders are watching for confirmation rather than just a quick spike. As Bitcoin climbs, sentiment will likely depend on whether the current strength can continue. Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said the key question going forward is whether the breakout can be sustained and translated into new momentum.  He pointed to a mix of supportive conditions, including relative stability in macro factors, gradual improvement in institutional flows, and progress on regulatory clarity.  At the same time, he warned that the market still has to deal with headline risk—especially from global geopolitics—as well as shifts in broader risk appetite that can quickly change how investors respond to crypto news. 8% Pause Could Come Before The Real Push Market expert Ali Martinez also weighed on the recent surge, noting that Bitcoin is forming a bullish reversal pattern, currently developing a Morning Star candlestick setup on the monthly chart.  This is described as a three-day sequence often interpreted as a signal that sellers may be exhausted and that buyers are regaining control. Even so, Martinez cautioned that strong signals don’t always produce an immediate straight-line rally.  Related Reading: XRP Indicator Turns Bullish Again After 3 Months: What’s The Next Price Target? According to his read of the data, Bitcoin often pauses briefly after the move—typically around “an 8% breather” on average—before the bigger continuation leg begins. This implies that BTC could retrace back to $72,000 before moving higher.  Taken together, the next move may depend on whether BTC can hold above established support levels like $75,000, sustain the push through key thresholds such as $80,000, and avoid major negative shocks as geopolitics and risk sentiment remain active variables for markets. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that began in October last year, according to new research from Grayscale. The firm points to Feb. 5—when BTC traded around $63,000—as a “durable” market bottom.  Potential Start Of A New Bitcoin Bull Market In Grayscale’s view, the rebound since that low has been meaningful. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed at roughly $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching about $76,000.  That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which matters because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a drop. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control. Related Reading: A Stark XRP Price Call: Why One Analyst Says It Could Be Under $1 By 2031 For Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price is about $74,000. That implies many newer buyers are already back near break-even.  If BTC continues rising in the days ahead, more recent participants could shift into positive profit and loss, which Grayscale treats as a potential early sign of a bull-market transition. In that framework, the Feb. 5 low is not just a statistical low—it’s presented as the point where the market may have stabilized enough to start a new upward phase. $78,000 Still Holds The Key Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin whales reportedly added about 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation pace since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months. Glassnode data also indicates that upward momentum has cooled somewhat. Even so, it still points to strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the odds of a sharp slide. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has risen, suggesting ongoing participation rather than a sudden exit. In the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, Glassnode points to several indicators improving, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside netflow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and stronger investor interest.  Related Reading: AAVE Price Plummets By 26%: $9 Billion Net Outflows Traced To Kelp DAO Hack Combined with higher overall trading activity, the picture is presented as a cautiously optimistic shift in sentiment, especially for investors engaging with Bitcoin through regulated channels and traditional custody. Even with these supportive signs, Bitcoin isn’t free of near-term challenges. BTC has slightly retraced toward the $75,800 area at the time of writing, and it remains unclear whether it can break the closest resistance level near $78,000.  That price point has capped stronger upside moves toward $80,000 since Jan. 30. The overall takeaway is that the market may be setting up for a larger move, but the next step likely depends on whether resistance can be cleared. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to advance above major hurdles during the recent recovery, with price action failing to break through the $76,000 resistance level.  The market signals also show that several major cryptocurrencies—Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), and XRP—managed to track Bitcoin’s rebound. Even with that follow-through, they have likewise not fully cleared their own higher resistance levels.  Still, some analysts believe a cluster of supportive factors is starting to line up in a way that could lift both BTC and the broader crypto market to levels not seen since the beginning of the year. ‘Perfect Time’ For Bitcoin In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), market analyst Ash Crypto claimed that Bitcoin’s bullish setup could hardly be better at this point, and attributed that view to six catalysts he believes could push prices higher.  Among them, Ash pointed to the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, alongside expectations that the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq could also set new highs soon.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Policy Institute Maps Out Strategy For US Stablecoin Supremacy Across 5 Policy Areas He also cited US economic data, highlighting that the ISM PMI has been above 52 for three straight months. In addition, Ash also referenced geopolitical headlines, arguing that peace talks involving the US, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon could reduce uncertainty and support risk appetite. On the crypto-specific side, Ash emphasized institutional and ecosystem demand. He noted that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are buying billions of BTC each week, framing it as an ongoing source of accumulation.  Finally, he suggested that the pace of development is accelerating in response to the “quantum threat,” which he sees as an additional long-term tailwind.  Why Altcoin Upside Is Possible Putting those pieces together, Ash concluded that conditions are “the perfect time” for Bitcoin to push toward the $85,000–$90,000 range, and that the move would likely be supportive for altcoins as well. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps If the catalysts he highlighted continue to gain traction—starting from equity strength and macro stability, alongside institutional BTC demand—then both Bitcoin’s ascent and an altcoin resurgence could become increasingly plausible. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) is pressing up against a major decision point after failing to break above the $76,000 resistance level. Following consecutive rejections in that area, the cryptocurrency has shifted into consolidation once again.  Bitcoin Set For A ‘Final Push’ One of the latest bullish takes came on Wednesday from market analyst Ted Pillows, who recently suggested that Bitcoin has broken out of a broader 7-month downtrend.  In his view, this shift is supported by a technical signal on the weekly chart: a weekly MACD bullish cross. Pillows argues that, together, these developments could trigger what he describes as a final push higher, with BTC potentially targeting the $77,000–$78,000 zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Higher: What The Market Data Says Could Happen Next Yet Pillows also included a warning that tempers the upside outlook. He said that after Bitcoin reaches that area, the cryptocurrency could fall to new yearly lows in the second quarter, without offering a specific price level for how low BTC might drop.  In explaining why a bottom might form later, Pillows pointed to the macroeconomic backdrop. He believes the new Federal Reserve (Fed) chair will accelerate rate cuts and drive liquidity injections in the third quarter as mid-term elections approach.  According to his scenario, that policy shift would help establish a market bottom for Bitcoin and could set the stage for a “V-shape” recovery, similar to what the market experienced during March 2020 and again in April 2025. Extreme Capitulation Scenario A separate technical post from analyst Ali Martinez focused more directly on timing and “capitulation” levels that could define the floor. Martinez highlighted the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price of approximately $49,387 as what he called the final line of defense for the cycle.  Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps In his framework, if Bitcoin reaches that level and holds, it may prevent the market from sliding into a more severe outcome. However, Martinez also described an extreme scenario—what he referred to as a “black swan” event—where a further wick down could occur to the -0.2 Standard Deviation Band at $36,657. Martinez suggested that these two levels can be viewed as “Generational Entries,” meaning they could represent points where longer-term participants step in and where conditions begin to shift from capitulation toward recovery.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price is bouncing back strongly amid growing hopes for a potential shift in the standoff between the US and Iran. So far, BTC has gained roughly 10% in the weekly time frame. This pushed the asset back toward the $76,000 area and briefly marked a nearly one-month high.  The move appears to have been driven by improving sentiment around the conflict, even as tensions remain very real and the US simultaneously took action in the region. Regulatory Clarity Before A Bigger Push? The Bitcoin price rally followed claims by President Donald Trump that Iran had reached out to his administration about possible peace talks. At the same time, the US began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.  Related Reading: XRP Could Face Big Moves Based On CLARITY Act Outcomes – 3 Key Price Scenarios Damien Loh, chief investment officer at Ericsenz Capital, told Bloomberg that Bitcoin is behaving like other risk assets during the move. In his view, the market interpreted Trump’s comments as a sign that the timeline for a deal may be getting extended and that another round of discussions is being pursued.  Loh also added an important nuance: the Bitcoin price has been trading better than broader risk assets, but he suggested it may take additional regulatory clarity before the next leg up can truly take hold.  Specifically, he pointed to the possibility that the Bitcoin price could remain range-bound until the US passes the long-awaited CLARITY Act, the industry’s market structure framework.  Bitcoin Price Breakout Is Just Getting Started Market analyst Ali Martinez, citing data from his latest analysis, argued that the current push higher is not finished. Martinez said BTC has finally broken above a descending trendline on its 12-hour chart after roughly two months of consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle.  He described this as a structural change—essentially signaling that the “coiling” phase is over. If the breakout holds, Martinez expects the Bitcoin price could move toward $80,000, which would mark the highest point since January 31 of this year. Martinez also pointed out that the bullish momentum is happening for more reasons than just the Iran–US news. He said Bitcoin miners have paused forced selling and have been hoarding more than $330 million in BTC over the past few weeks.  Related Reading: Three-Way Bitcoin Outlook Tied To US–Iran War—Which Case Is Most Realistic? On the demand side, the analyst said there’s a noticeable increase in interest from US-based institutions. He referenced the Coinbase Premium metric as one piece of evidence, noting that it has flipped positive.  In his framing, a positive Coinbase Premium suggests that regulated capital may be positioning aggressively ahead of what could be the next upward move. Even after the Bitcoin price initially surged toward $76,000, it later retraced slightly. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was trading around $75,163, still close to a key level Martinez has highlighted.  He set a target of $75,300, explaining that reaching this price point would liquidate roughly $80 million in short positions. Martinez said this could trigger what he described as a “cascading effect,” where forced buying from liquidations catches bearish traders off guard and allows BTC to continue moving higher. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to steady itself after a shaky start to the week. After dipping briefly toward the key $70,000 support level on Sunday, BTC has since bounced back and is now trading above $72,000 on Monday.  However, the next move may depend less on internal crypto dynamics and more on the escalating geopolitical backdrop of tensions between the United States and Iran, and the events that unfold in the days ahead. $100,000 Bitcoin By Year-End In a new report, market analyst Sam Daodu argues that Bitcoin’s direction is closely tied to how the conflict unfolds. Rather than pointing to a single likely outcome, Daodu lays out three scenarios, each with a different implication for oil prices, investor sentiment, and ultimately BTC price action.  Related Reading: Retail Crypto Activity Hits 9-Year Low As Big Money Steps In In Daodu’s bullish scenario, a full peace deal would shift the outlook for both geopolitics and commodities. He suggests oil prices would retreat back toward pre-war levels, roughly in the $65 to $70 per barrel range.  Daodu says that if that happens, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 by year-end, which would translate to a 39% price increase from current trading levels. April 15 Agreement Expectations The base case is more cautious and revolves around what could happen around April 15. Daodu’s view is that if the talks scheduled for that period lead to a new agreement, oil prices might drop below $95 again, similar to what happened after the first ceasefire was announced last week.  Daodu also points to a specific positioning factor: there are reportedly about $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 right now. If oil prices fall quickly and risk sentiment improves fast, those short positions could unwind, triggering a squeeze. That could help drive Bitcoin higher between $75,000 to $80,000. Bear Path For BTC The bearish scenario centers on the ceasefire failing—either because it breaks apart completely or because it expires without a workable outcome.  Daodu notes that the two-week ceasefire is already under strain. With talks having collapsed and a blockade being announced, the agreement is described as “hanging by a thread.”  Related Reading: Ethereum About To Turn? Death Cross Says Bottom Is Closer Than You Think If negotiations fail and oil prices rise above $110 to $120, Daodu says Bitcoin would likely lose the $70,000 support level. From there, the downside path could accelerate, with BTC potentially sliding toward $65,000. If the crisis drags on, he adds that prices could fall further toward $55,000 to $60,000. Even with these three paths laid out, Daodu’s conclusion is that the base prediction is the most realistic outcome at the moment. In his assessment, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound until the next round of talks produces something tangible.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Market expert Sam Daodu has released a new April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), flagging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic forces as the decisive factors for where prices may go next.  Daodu’s note comes after Bitcoin ran into resistance just above roughly $72,000 and amid a market environment that has produced the asset’s first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022. Bitcoin Faces Unusual April Daodu pointed to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to finish April in the black: since 2013, the token has closed the month higher nine times out of 13, a 69% win rate.  On paper, April looks generous — the average return sits at 10.7% — but that mean is skewed by a handful of outsized years (2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020), each with gains above 28%. Strip out those extreme outliers, and the average April return falls to a subdued 0.7%.  More representative measures show Bitcoin’s median April gain at 7.1%, with the best April on record in 2013 (+36.8%) and the worst in 2022 (−17.2%). These historical ranges, Daodu says, demonstrate how much April outcomes depend on the broader macro backdrop. Related Reading: Adam Back Denies Being Bitcoin Creator In Response To NYT: ‘I Am Not Satoshi’ What makes April 2026 unusual, Daodu argues, is the dominance of external macro and geopolitical drivers that were largely absent in prior years. The ongoing US–Iran conflict has kept oil prices elevated — above $100 since early March — and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%.  Those developments have knocked back expectations for near‑term rate cuts and left markets braced for higher rates into the second quarter. Taken together, tighter liquidity and heightened geopolitical risk create a tougher environment for risk assets, including BTC. Under these conditions, Daodu warns, the usual early‑April dip and subsequent rebound are no longer assured. Rather, three key elements will determine Bitcoin’s future.  Whether oil drops below $90 per barrel, whether monetary expectations ease, and whether the US-Iran ceasefire persists and leads to a lasting deal.  Three Possible Paths Daodu lays out three price scenarios to quantify how those outcomes could play out. In his bullish case, a genuine ceasefire coupled with oil prices falling below $90 would significantly relieve macro pressure. That relief, he says, could allow Bitcoin to clear resistance above $75,000 and propel a run toward $80,000. Progress on the CLARITY Act — legislative movement expected to be marked up in late April — would add fuel to that rally by improving regulatory clarity for digital assets. Related Reading: JPMorgan CEO Says Bank Must Build Its Own Blockchain To Counter Crypto Threats His base case envisions a more muted month. Persistent tax‑related selling in early April could cap gains and keep BTC trading between about $68,000 and $76,000. Without a clear catalyst, such as an end to the conflict, Bitcoin would likely consolidate in that band. The bearish scenario involves a breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed escalation. In that event, Daodu says Bitcoin could lose its nearby support around $69,000, trigger liquidations of leveraged positions, and see short‑term holders exit.  That pressure could send BTC toward $65,000 or lower; the expert notes that Standard Chartered has warned of a deeper slump toward $50,000 if macro conditions deteriorate substantially. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is entering the new week under a cloud of doubt, with social sentiment tilting to fear just as price action continues to stall below $66,800. Data from Santiment shows a noticeable change in crowd behavior, hinting that the market’s mood may be reaching an inflection point. Sentiment extremes have often corresponded with turning points in previous cycles, but the current backdrop of price action is somewhat confusing. Related Reading: XRP Eyes $8.30 Target As Rare Chart Pattern Emerges From Prolonged Decline FUD Returns With Bitcoin Stalling At $66,800 On-chain analytics platform Santiment pointed out a notable change in crowd psychology on Saturday, reporting that bearish discussions across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other major platforms have increased to their highest ratio relative to bullish commentary since February 28th.  Bitcoin was trading at $66,800 at the time of the data snapshot, within what Santiment’s sentiment model designates as the FUD Zone. This is a threshold where negative commentary structurally overwhelms positive discourse. The ratio stood at just 0.81 bullish comments for every 1.00 bearish comment, marking the most pessimistic social reading in five weeks. A review of Santiment’s chart shows the spread between bullish and bearish commentary widening materially through the final days of March and into the first weekend of April. Bitcoin Sentiment Chart. Source: @santimentfeed On X Santiment attributed the deteriorating sentiment in part to an extended period of stagnancy across the broader cryptocurrency market throughout 2026, a year that has so far frustrated bulls who anticipated a reversal of 2025’s year-end bearish momentum.  Bitcoin spent much of the first quarter trading bearish, and the lack of a meaningful breakout appears to be wearing on retail participants. Furthermore, Bitcoin ended Q1 2026 with a negative 22.1% close. Peak FUD Could Be The Setup Bulls Are Waiting For This sentiment deterioration has been characterized by the Bitcoin price action relatively compressed below $70,000, with repeated attempts to reclaim higher levels in late March and early April being met with rejection.  However, the very depth of current pessimism is being read by Santiment as a constructive signal. The firm’s commentary leaned contrarian, noting that markets have historically tended to move in the opposite direction of prevailing crowd expectations. According to the on-chain analytics platform, a high level of FUD like this is a good sign that things can turn positive sooner rather than later. There are also external uncertainties playing a role in how the sentiment surrounding Bitcoin has turned out. Geopolitical tensions and regulatory discussions, including those surrounding the proposed CLARITY Act, are causing hesitation among participants.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Exploding To $500K By 2030 These factors are feeding into the broader what-if environment, and they are limiting the ability of Bitcoin’s investors to keep their optimism. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,650, down by 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a stark downside risk that could send prices below the previous bear market lows, according to a new analysis from blockchain data firm CryptoQuant.  The firm warns that a confluence of geopolitical shocks, macroeconomic repricing, and fragile derivatives positioning could push the largest cryptocurrency as low as $10,000 in a worst‑case scenario — far beneath the last bear‑market trough near $15,000. Political Shock From Trump Speech CryptoQuant’s note comes against the backdrop of a substantial pullback from Bitcoin’s record highs. After peaking at roughly $126,000 last October, Bitcoin has retraced about 45% and has entered a months‑long consolidation range between $66,000 and $70,000.  Related Reading: New Bitcoin Crash Ahead? Bloomberg Strategist Forecasts Return To $10,000 – Here’s Why The firm highlights recent political developments as an immediate catalyst for the downside potential. CryptoQuant points to President Donald Trump’s April 1 speech on Iran as a market‑moving event that abruptly reset expectations.  By signaling the possibility of intensified military action within the coming weeks, the speech undermined hopes for de‑escalation and prompted a broad risk‑off reaction.  In CryptoQuant’s view, this was not merely a geopolitical scare — it forced a repricing of macro conditions that matter to risk assets like Bitcoin.  As oil prices rise, inflationary pressures can return; a firmer dollar tightens dollar liquidity globally. CryptoQuant notes rising volatility — with the VIX near 25 — and widening Treasury spreads, both of which are symptomatic of deteriorating liquidity. Three Possible Bitcoin Outcomes  CryptoQuant lays out a range of possible outcomes. In a moderate stress event, the firm estimates Bitcoin could fall from the $70,000 area to roughly $50,000 — a 25–30% decline.  If Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows continue and spot demand remains soft, the medium‑term downside expands substantially, with prices potentially sliding into the $30,000–$20,000 range, representing declines of 60–70% from current levels.  Related Reading: ICBA Opposes OCC’s Conditional Nod For Coinbase National Trust Bank Charter In the extreme scenario — for example, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a sustained major conflict — global liquidity could seize up more completely.  CryptoQuant suggests that in such circumstances, equities could plunge more than 30% and oil could spike to $150–$200 per barrel, conditions that could drive Bitcoin toward the $10,000 mark, an 85% drop from current trading prices. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone has renewed a stark prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), arguing that the market’s leading cryptocurrency could resume a prolonged decline that takes it back toward $10,000.  Why McGlone Sees Bitcoin Heading Back To $10K In a Thursday post on social media platform X (previously Twitter), McGlone framed the $10,000 level as a long-standing reference point for Bitcoin: it was a common trading price before the 2020–21 rally and has been among the most frequently traded levels since futures began trading in 2017. McGlone’s view, which he describes as a “bursting crypto bubble” scenario, is a minority stance among market analysts who predict a Bitcoin bottom this year as low as $38,000 in the worst scenario—much higher than the Bloomberg strategist’s price point.  Related Reading: What April Could Mean For XRP: Past Patterns And Key Price Catalysts To Watch If Bitcoin were to fall from its current trading price to $10,000, the move would represent a roughly 92% drop, taking into account the retrace already seen from its all-time high of $126,000. That would be materially lower than the previous bear-market trough around $15,000. The idea that Bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 clashes with a common pattern observed in prior post‑Halving cycles. Historically, corrections following Halving rallies have produced higher lows compared with prior cycles.  In that framework, a return to $10,000 would mark an unusually deep reversal well below the low of the last bear market. Still, McGlone contends that significant structural and behavioral shifts around the 2020–21 era mean the market could be reverting to an older norm centered on the $10,000 price point. Market Worries Mount Beyond long-term projections, Bitcoin is now range-bound with limited directional confidence. The leading cryptocurrency was trading at $66,938 at the time of writing, down around 2.5% in the previous 24 hours.  Analysts point to heightened geopolitical tension as a near-term catalyst for risk-off moves: President Trump’s recent remarks suggesting intensification of strikes against Iran have reduced hopes for a swift de‑escalation, pressuring risk assets and prompting a pullback in crypto markets.  “Trump’s latest comments on the war with Iran triggered a sharp sell-off amid a lack of de-escalation signs,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, told Bloomberg, noting Bitcoin’s consolidation between roughly $66,000 and $69,000. Related Reading: National Trust Bank Bid: Citadel Securities-Backed Crypto Exchange Enters The Fray In addition, CryptoQuant data indicate that large holders — often referred to as whales — have moved from accumulation to net selling over the past year, a trend traders say helps explain the subdued price action.  “Onchain data confirms what price action has been telegraphing: there’s zero conviction,” Jasper De Maere, a trader at Wintermute, commented. Institutional flows have not been supportive either. Net inflows to US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) turned negative on Wednesday, with investors withdrawing about $174 million from those vehicles, contributing to the retracement. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A new analysis released by CryptoQuant, written by contributor CryptoMe, suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have room to fall this year, and that the collapse could give the ideal purchasing opportunity for long-term investors.  Bitcoin Bottom At $54,000? In a Monday report, CryptoMe highlighted the cryptocurrency’s Realized Price indicator as a key reference point and argued that periods when spot prices dip at or below that level have historically been attractive accumulation zones. The Bitcoin Realized Price is, in simple terms, the market’s average cost basis: the price paid for all coins in circulation weighted by when they last moved. Notably, this Bitcoin metric has frequently acted as meaningful support during past bear markets.  Related Reading: XRP Price Alert: Expert Predicts $0.80 On Bitcoin’s Potential Retreat To $60,000 When Bitcoin spot prices drop below the Realized Price indicator, the analyst says, the market is often in a state of capitulation — characterized by negative news, extreme fear, and pervasive pessimism. Bitcoin’s Realized Price sits at roughly $54,000, compared with a market price near $67,000 at the time of writing— a gap of about 19.4% between these levels.  CryptoMe argues that if the cryptocurrency were to fall to the Realized Price or below, that area would be a potential market bottom in the current bear cycle, and an optimal zone for spot purchases and step‑by‑step accumulation.  Prepare For Drawdowns CryptoMe also reminded investors of two important caveats. First, historical episodes show that when Bitcoin does move beneath the Realized Price, it can remain there for widely varying lengths of time — from as few as seven days to as long as 301 days.  The analyst warned prospective buyers at these levels to be prepared for a potentially extended period of underperformance before prices recover.  Related Reading: US Labor Department Eyes 401(k) Crypto Access, Bitcoin Considered In New Rule Second, a drop below the Realized Price indicator does not imply a fixed floor: CryptoMe asserts that the broader crypto market may fall further, and investors must be ready for deeper drawdowns. Despite those warnings, the analyst concluded on a bullish note: “Below $54,000, Bitcoin is cheap compared to the market average, and it is a perfect place to make gradual accumulation and collect Bitcoin.”  After failing to break through the key resistance level of $76,000 last week, Bitcoin has dropped by almost 12% to its current trading price.  This surge in volatility has been linked to increased Middle Eastern tensions and rising oil prices, which have caused investors to withdraw their funds from riskier assets. As a result, Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have all followed Bitcoin’s price movement, falling to crucial support levels.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Market expert Ali Martinez recently revealed on X (formerly Twitter) what he describes as “the secret to every major Bitcoin bull run since 2011,” saying October could offer one of the best entry points ahead of the next bull market.  Martinez shared an on‑chain fractal breakdown that points to a potential “final discount” in October of this year, where investors might find optimal buying opportunities before the next sustained uptrend. Bitcoin Could Bottom At $41,000-$45,000 In his social media post, Martinez suggests that Bitcoin is still operating within a four‑year rhythm that breaks down into a sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and a bear phase.  Within that larger cycle, he highlights two shorter subcycles and asserts the market is now moving into what he describes as the “final discount” period. Using that framework, Martinez puts a likely “golden entry” window between October 6 and October 16, 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Bottom Signal? Analyst Maps Out Road To $10,000 Beyond timing, Martinez offered specific price bands for ideal buying opportunities. He identified entry points in the $41,500 to $45,000 range, which would represent declines of roughly 41% and 36%, respectively, from current trading levels of around $70,800. October Launchpad  Those potential retracements in the coming months imply that Bitcoin may still have substantial downside before the October window, according to his reading of past cycles. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could 200% Rally If This Floor Holds, Analyst Says However, Martinez framed the scenario as an actionable pattern rather than mere speculation: if the fractal holds, the October interval could serve as the launchpad that begins a fresh four‑year cycle and sets the stage for the next vertical price move.   The expert concluded his Monday social media post by saying the “countdown to the next Bitcoin vertical move has begun.” Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has settled back into the familiar consolidation band between roughly $65,000 and $74,000 after a short-lived attempt to clear higher resistance walls at around $76,000 earlier in the week failed.  Trading around $69,000 at the time of writing, on-chain analytics from Glassnode and market commentary from analysts suggest the market is likely to remain in an accumulation phase through the end of March, with several indicators pointing to lower near-term volatility but heightened defensive positioning. Rising Demand For Downside Protection Glassnode’s posts on X (formerly Twitter) highlight record-high positioning in derivatives markets: options open interest reached a new all-time high ahead of the current quarter’s expiry.  That elevated positioning may still reflect short-term hedging rather than directional conviction, and the firm noted that the picture of refreshed positioning and sentiment should become clearer after the March 27 expiry. Volatility metrics are showing signs of normalization. At-the-money implied volatility (1‑week ATM IV) has cooled from about 70% to 53%, and longer-dated maturities have fallen roughly 10 vols from recent highs. This drop in implied volatility indicates traders are expecting less dramatic price swings in the immediate term. Related Reading: AI Model Ranks Bitcoin, XRP, And ETH For 2026: Expected Returns And Price Targets Despite falling IV, skew measures have widened back toward the downside. After the failed breakout to $75,000, demand for downside protection reemerged, and 25‑delta skew moved into the 15–20% range. The renewed premium for put options reflects caution among participants who are seeking protection against a reversal. That caution shows up in flow dynamics. Glassnode reported that the put/call ratio flagged limited momentum to sustain a push above $75,000. On the way up, flows were dominated by put buying above $72,000—a classic sign that the market was fading the breakout—while the pullback was accompanied by a brief surge in call purchases.  In the most recent 24‑hour tape, put buys led the way with a 30.7% share of activity, and calls lagged at roughly 10%, underscoring a defensive tilt after the rejection at $75,000. Consolidation Rather Than Immediate Breakout Gamma positioning has also been adjusted. For the Q1 expiry, short gamma exposure around the 75,000 strike contracted from $3.9 billion to $2.4 billion in under two days, a $1.5 billion unwind as prices moved away from that level.  Lower gamma exposure reduces the need for dealers to dynamically hedge, which in turn can dampen directional flows and help explain part of the pullback. Relatedly, the volatility risk premium (VRP) has reset. Over the past week, short-gamma positions had been profitable because implied volatility exceeded realized volatility, but realized volatility increased during the selloff, compressing the VRP.  With VRP near equilibrium, option prices now look more fairly valued—another indicator that the market may be settling into a consolidation range rather than preparing for an immediate breakout. Bitcoin Nears Key Multi‑Year Support  When it comes to full price analysis, market expert Ali Martinez recently flagged a longer-term technical backdrop that may be constructive. He noted Bitcoin is approaching a multi-year trendline that has supported major advances in previous cycles.  Related Reading: BTQ Unveils First Bitcoin Upgrade Testnet Designed To Thwart Quantum Attacks The expert asserted that every touch of this foundational support over the past nine years has preceded significant rallies: the 2017 parabolic run, the 2020 rebound from the COVID crash, and the 2022 recovery after the FTX collapse.  That trendline now lives between roughly $60,000 and $56,000; if it holds, Martinez believes the area could become more than just a bounce zone and serve as a potential launchpad for the next sustained bull phase. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering above the recently breached $74,000 resistance, positioning to reclaim price levels not seen since the fourth quarter of last year. However, this week’s activity is set to be turbulent, with market expert Virtual Bacon predicting it could be the “most volatile week in Bitcoin all year.” Bear Market Prevails In a report shared on social media platform X, Virtual Bacon noted that, although the current Bitcoin price uptrend is optimistic, significant challenges remain.  The critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $93,000, while the 50-week SMA is around $98,000. The last lower high resistance is pegged at $94,000, creating a confluence of resistance in the $93,000 to $98,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Simply said, there is a 15% downside risk to support levels in the low $60,000 zone, against a 30% upside potential to resistance. Virtual Bacon emphasized that the chances of a rejection back into the previous range outweigh the possibility of a full breakout into a bull market.  “This isn’t me being bearish,” he stated, emphasizing that the analysis is grounded in numerical realities. “We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above the $94,000 to $98,000 resistance.” Market Volatility Expected This Week  Virtual Bacon’s concern regarding the expected volatility this week is attributed to several volatility catalysts. The first is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place from March 18-19.  There is a 99.1% likelihood of no interest rate cuts. However, the expert believes that any comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—particularly concerning hawkish stances influenced by oil-driven inflation—could trigger a hard market sell-off. Furthermore, the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day enhances the potential for dramatic market movements. Current options data indicates heavy open interest clustered around the $74,000 to $75,000 range, suggesting that prices may stay constrained near this level until Friday’s expiry.  Virtual Bacon noted that, if the Bitcoin price moves above $75,000, it could surge toward $80,000. However, if it drops below $70,000, it may amplify the downward trend. The ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding oil prices could further complicate market conditions. The expert contended that if oil prices approach $120, combined with FOMC and quadruple witching events, the market could experience significant instability. Two Scenarios For Bitcoin In the expert’s view, there are two main scenarios to consider by the end of the week. The first, a potential breakout, would see Bitcoin hold above the $75,000 mark through Friday’s expected volatility.  He said that this could facilitate a move toward $80,000 and set the stage for renewed bullish sentiment as the market looks for recovery toward the critical resistance levels of $94,000 to $98,000 in the second quarter of the year. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 The second scenario involves a rejection at the $75,000 resistance level, leading to a post-expiry drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range.  Virtual Bacon concludes that if such a decline occurs, the S&P 500 could break below its 200-day SMA, and oil prices could escalate, pushing Bitcoin back into prolonged bear market conditions, with scenarios suggesting prices could fall as low as $58,000 or even $43,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite a recent resurgence in prices, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, are not expected to achieve new all-time highs this year, according to analysts at Citigroup.  The company significantly revised its forecasts for both cryptocurrencies on Tuesday, reflecting concerns about the slow pace of legislative progress in the United States, which limits the potential for regulatory catalysts that could drive increased demand from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Targets Revised Downward In their latest update, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum’s forecast was reduced from $4,304 to $3,175.  This suggests that, based on current trade prices, Bitcoin is predicted to increase by nearly 50% in the remaining months of the year from $74,360. Ethereum, on the other hand, would see a nearly 62% increase in price from its present level of $2,314 per token over the course of the year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns To Full Bull Mode: Key Indicators Signal Bottom And Major Relief Rally Citi strategist Alex Saunders emphasized that while regulatory catalysts are essential for fostering greater adoption and inflows into the market, the opportunity for significant US legislative action this year is diminishing. The report further highlights that, under a recessionary economic climate, Bitcoin could see its price dip to as low as $58,000, while Ethereum might fall to around $1,198.  Conversely, in a bullish scenario driven by heightened demand from end investors, Bitcoin’s price could reach $165,000, with Ethereum potentially climbing to $4,488. Tight Timeline For Crypto Legislation Progress The upcoming mid-term elections in November further complicate the legislative landscape for crypto-focused regulation. Should Democrats gain additional seats in Congress, the chances of passing the crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) could diminish. For the bill to advance, support from 7 Senate Democrats is required.  Citigroup analysts suggest that Bitcoin is likely to trade within a range while awaiting developments in the legislative arena, with $70,000 acting as a significant price point as the US election approaches. Related Reading: Circle (CRLC) Boosted By USDC Demand: New Analyst Projections Suggest Rally To $136 Earlier on Tuesday, Bitcoinist reported that Alex Thorn from the research team at Galaxy Digital pointed out that time is of the essence. He cautioned that if progress is not made this month, the likelihood of passing the CLARITY Act this year will become “extremely low.” While negotiations in Washington D.C focus on resolving the stablecoin rewards issue, Thorn highlighted that additional challenges could emerge. These challenges may include discussions regarding decentralized finance (DeFi), investor protections, and broader ethical considerations in the digital asset sector.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has briefly surpassed the critical resistance level of $74,000, generating renewed optimism among investors as key market indicators suggest the potential for a bottom and further recovery for the leading cryptocurrency.  A Potential Surge To $108,000 Market analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a significant development in a social media post on Monday, noting that Bitcoin’s funding rates have turned negative. This particular signal has historically foreshadowed substantial relief rallies over the past three years.  Martinez added that current market sentiment reflects a state of “peak fear,” which often indicates that the local bottom is close. Historical patterns reveal a consistent trajectory: when the majority are paying to short Bitcoin, it typically signifies a market rebound. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Dogecoin Price Will ‘Pump Hard’ Soon, Here’s Why The analyst has highlighted several past instances where this pattern played out effectively. For example, in December 2022, Bitcoin climbed from $17,800 to $24,800, a gain of 39%.  Similarly, from March 2023, the cryptocurrency surged from $20,000 to $30,700, marking a 53% increase in price. The trend continued with notable jumps in August 2023 and beyond.  Considering this pattern persists for the cryptocurrency, where Bitcoin has historically demonstrated an average gain of 46%, there is a possibility that the digital asset could rally back to approximately $108,000 for the first time since November of last year.  Bitcoin Whales Return In addition to funding rates, blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant has reported further bullish signs for Bitcoin. Recent analysis by the firm indicates that the ratio of BTC whales on exchanges has reached its highest point in six years.  An increase in this whale ratio often signifies a short-term bottom, while peaks in the ratio typically mark the commencement of an upward trend. Presently, the ratio of retail investors is at a six-year low, suggesting that larger players in the market are accumulating aggressively. On-chain indicators support the notion that Bitcoin may be poised for an upward movement, with the exchange whale ratio reinforcing the idea that the current price levels represent a bottom. Related Reading: Ripple Pushes XRP Global With Multi-Continent Expansion Drive In another observation on social media platform X (previously Twitter), market expert Jesus Martinez pointed out the presence of an unfilled Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between $80,000 and $84,000 for the leading cryptocurrency.  Nine out of ten CME gaps have been successfully closed since August 2025, sparking speculation that the cryptocurrency may experience an additional 13% increase should it promptly fill the gap at $84,000 in the short term.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading slightly above the $74,100 mark, with gains of nearly 4% and 8% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) made a notable recovery on Friday, witnessing a 4% surge that led the leading cryptocurrency to retest the critical $74,000 resistance level, which has remained unbroken for the past month.  However, even with this upward movement, the cryptocurrency has retraced to approximately $72,215, establishing itself at the upper boundary of its ongoing consolidation range. Further Declines For Bitcoin Ahead? Analyst Sunny Mom from CryptoQuant emphasizes that, despite these recoveries, Bitcoin has yet to establish a definitive bottom. She suggests that further price declines may be ahead, as current on-chain data reveals that the market is in a significant “stress test” phase.  Diving into the data, Sunny identifies several key factors that indicate the challenges ahead for Bitcoin. First, she points to the 6-12 month cohort of investors, who are currently underwater due to their Realized Price (RP) being concentrated around $100,000.  This means that many of these mid-term holders are seeing losses, which could continue to exert downward pressure on prices until this imbalance resolves.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Sunny also highlights the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which stands at 1.2. This figure is commonly regarded as a “DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) zone” for “smart money.” However, substantial cyclical bottoms typically require the MVRV to be less than 1.0, indicating a state of capitulation.  Furthermore, the importance of long-term holders (LTHs) cannot be overstated. A sustainable price floor generally requires that LTHs—those who have held their positions for over two years—constitute more than 20% of the Realized Cap.  Currently, they make up only about 15%, suggesting that the market lacks the robust structural support needed for a strong recovery. She outlines two potential paths for how Bitcoin could find its bottom.  Two Potential Paths To Find A True Bottom The first involves a “Black Swan” event—a sudden crash that triggers forced liquidations among high-cost investors. Although painful, Sunny believes this scenario could lead to a faster establishment of a solid Bitcoin price floor, potentially within one to two months.  The second path, referred to as “The Great Boring,” envisions institutions maintaining their positions, allowing Bitcoin to trade in the $60,000 to $80,000 range for an extended period.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance The analyst asserts that this would enable new investments to mature into long-term holdings, setting the stage for a bottoming process that could extend into late 2026 or early 2027. While the market may be at a “Value Bottom” conducive to long-term dollar-cost averaging, Sunny’s analysis suggests that a true “Structural Bottom” for Bitcoin has yet to form. Consequently, she noted that volatility within the $60,000 to $70,000 range is anticipated.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout.  However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase. Bitcoin Recovery In Sight?  Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month.  Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis.  When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend. Potential Upside Emerges The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000. Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite trading more than 40% below its all-time high, with $70,000 serving as a short-term support level, Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a repeat pattern that could lead to a 54% increase following this year’s US midterm elections.  New research from cryptocurrency exchange Binance suggests that, historically, the aftermath of midterm elections has been positive for both the Bitcoin price and the S&P 500. Will Bitcoin Follow Historical Patterns?  The research shows that since 1939, the S&P 500 has reported no negative returns in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging gains of 19%. In the same periods, Bitcoin has experienced an average rally of 54% across all three previously recorded midterm years.  Binance’s analysis further reveals that midterm election years often lead to political volatility, resulting in average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 16% for the S&P 500—marking them as the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.  Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion Tracking Bitcoin from 2014 onward, the research indicates that the market’s leading cryptocurrency has mirrored these market dynamics, with an average decline of 56% during midterm years. The research emphasizes what they call “The Post-Election Opportunity,” as once election results are settled and uncertainties are cleared, markets historically tend to rally significantly.  The exchange asserts that the year following midterm elections has been shown to be particularly strong for market returns, thus setting the stage for potential Bitcoin gains as well.  If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, it could make a strong case for a rebound. However, potentially not toward new record highs. The cryptocurrency has fallen by an average of 70% from its previous all-time highs during previous bear market cycles.  With Bitcoin’s bull market peak at $126,000, a potential decline to $37,800 could precede a 54% surge pointed by Binance, potentially returning its price to nearly $58,000. However, some analysts are pointing out that the market bottom may already have been reached.  Is The End Of The Bear Market Near? NewsBTC reported Wednesday that CryptoQuant analysts suggest that Bitcoin might be in the final stages of its bear market, especially after it dropped to $59,900 on February 6. Related Reading: White House Crypto Advisor Denounces Attempts To Sabotage CLARITY Act’s Goals Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, eyeing the key resistance level at $73,000. This phase may indicate a final accumulation stage of the bear cycle, which is often succeeded by substantial recoveries, albeit not in a straight path. With this pattern in mind, if Bitcoin maintains its current trading levels, the post-midterm elections in the US could propel the cryptocurrency back toward $107,000 for the first time since November 2025.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a trading range between $60,000 and $73,000, entering what analytics platform CryptoQuant describes as “the most frustrating phase in the cycle.”  According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV, Bitcoin finds itself in a period characterized by heightened uncertainty, with market signals indicating more hesitation than firm conviction. Bear Market Signals Three key on-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase for market participants, specifically Apparent Demand, the CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, and the Long-Term Holder SOPR. Related Reading: Ripple Launches $750 Million Share Buyback, Boosting Valuation To $50 Billion After the most recent sell-off, Apparent Demand initially showed signs of recovery, suggesting that opportunistic buyers were stepping in to capitalize on the recent price drop. However, this uptick was short-lived, quickly retreating to negative territory.  Moreno also emphasized the absence of persistent buying pressure in the Bitcoin market, which he believes shows that market players are still cautious and hesitant to aggressively accumulate BTC at current prices. The CryptoQuant Bull Market Cycle Indicator, as seen in the chart below, further reinforces this sentiment, as it currently signals a phase typically associated with bear market consolidation.  Moreover, the analyst noted that the behavioral dynamics at play can influence the cost bases of various market cohorts. He asserts that as short-term holders realize losses or transition to longer-term holders, the realized prices of Bitcoin can decline.  Lastly, the Long-Term Holder SOPR metric is beginning to show that even seasoned investors are starting to realize losses, dropping below the crucial threshold of 1. Historically, this tends to arise in the later stages of bear markets when extended uncertainty erodes even the staunchest beliefs in the asset’s value.  Bitcoin Eyes $72,000–$73,000 Resistance Level In the context of geopolitical events, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, outperforming gold and traditional stocks during the recent US-Israeli attack on Iran.  Crypto stocks have also benefited, given their ability to be traded at any hour, unhindered by banking schedules. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune:  Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an edge for the asset class. When the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, crypto-native markets were the only venue open for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate. Additionally, Bitcoin has seen a positive uptick of about 4% following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war may be winding down. Trump stated, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran has “nothing left in a military sense.” Related Reading: XRP Price Outlook: Analyst Foresees New All-Time Highs Above $40 In 2026 While attempting to consolidate near $70,000 at the time of writing, Bitcoin is also seeking to break through its recent local high in the $72,000-$73,000 resistance zone, which was unsuccessfully tested last week.  Selby emphasized that a sustained close above this threshold with significant volume could shift the narrative from a mere short squeeze to a genuine momentum recovery. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year.  Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market.  In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning.  Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted.  Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase  In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges.  Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated.  Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows.  Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode.  Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level.  Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend.  Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone.  The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685.  With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing.  In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area.  Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has wrapped up February with its fifth straight monthly loss, marking only the second time in its history that the leading cryptocurrency has printed five consecutive red candles on the monthly chart.  Upside Call Options Surge The latest decline saw Bitcoin fall to around $63,000 last Saturday, representing a roughly 15% drop for the month of February. However, the start of March has brought a modest rebound.  The asset opened the first week of the month at $68,600, posting gains of just over 3% as it attempts to reclaim the $70,000 level, which has continuously acted as a significant resistance barrier over the past several weeks. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Slips Toward Critical Support, Breakdown Threat Emerges Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market participants appear relatively composed. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said traders do not anticipate the Iran conflict causing major economic disruption.  In a note to Bloomberg, Thielen said that demand for upside Bitcoin call options has increased in recent days, suggesting that some investors are positioning for a potential rally ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The current setup has also reignited historical comparisons. The last time Bitcoin experienced a similar string of red monthly candles was during the 2018–2019 bear market.  In that earlier cycle, the asset went on to print six consecutive monthly losses. What followed was a sharp reversal: five straight green candles and a 308% surge, with Bitcoin climbing from roughly $3,400 to $14,000. Market Watchers Split On Bitcoin Outlook Market expert Ash Crypto recently highlighted this pattern on social media, suggesting that if history were to repeat, Bitcoin could be approaching a cyclical bottom after its fifth red month.  A comparable 300% advance from current trading levels would imply a potential move toward $272,000. Such a projection, however, depends on whether the recent lows ultimately prove to be the final bottom of this correction. Related Reading: XRP Faces $650 Million Sell Risk As US-Iran Conflict Sparks Risk-Off Move Not all analysts are convinced that the downside is over. Technical analyst Virtual Bacon has outlined the possibility of further retracement before a sustained recovery can be expected.  He identified $65,000—previously an all-time high—as the first key level, noting that the price has already revisited that zone. For those who subscribe to the thesis that former highs often turn into support, he suggested that the opportunity may already be present. A deeper pullback, in his view, could bring Bitcoin toward $58,000, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) currently sits. Historically, that long-term indicator has played a critical role in defining market bottoms.  It helped contain the sharp selloff during the 2020 COVID-19 crash, marked the absolute low in 2018, and was tested multiple times in 2015 without ever closing below it every week.  Because of this track record, the 200-week moving average has been widely regarded as one of the most reliable long-term accumulation zones in Bitcoin’s history. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a sharp rebound in the Bitcoin price that pushed the digital asset close to the $70,000 level once again. Bitcoin climbed roughly 8% on the day, approaching a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month. The renewed strength was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) advanced 12%, XRP gained 8%, and Solana (SOL) surged 13%, reflecting a wider return of risk appetite across digital assets.  Bitcoin Price Nears $70K As Altcoins Outperform Market experts suggest the bounce may be driven largely by investors stepping in after an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the upward move likely reflects dip-buying activity following the recent selloff.  She added that a decisive move back above $70,000 for the Bitcoin price could alter the broader market narrative, potentially restoring confidence after weeks of pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be In A Price Slump—But Adoption Is In A Bull Market Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. Although demand for cryptocurrencies in the US has softened in recent weeks, it seems that capital is now rotating into altcoins, as evidenced by the gains made by ETH, XRP and SOL, which have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 24 hours.  Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack, noted that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the context of the broader financial system. When liquidity conditions tighten, he said, volatility tends to increase.  In that environment, assets such as Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that were previously driven primarily by momentum. Still, some analysts caution against interpreting the rebound as a definitive turning point.  Is Bitcoin Forming A New Bottom? Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, drew comparisons to the market environment in 2022, when a steep decline was followed by months of sideways consolidation before a sustained recovery eventually took hold.  He observed that after the 2022 Bitcoin price downturn, it took more than a year for the market to regain and surpass prior highs, suggesting patience may be required this time as well. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, offered a nuanced view in his latest Bitcoin price outlook. He argued that the most intense phase of downside pressure is likely already behind the market.  Among the supportive signals he cited were Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average (MA) and realized price, historically important technical levels.  Related Reading: Expert Forecasts $5 Trillions Pouring Into Crypto Post CLARITY Act Passage In addition, more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently underwater, the relative strength index has reached levels often associated with capitulation, and several other on-chain indicators are flashing signs that a bottom may be forming. However, Thorn also warned that even if the worst of the decline has passed, further challenges could lie ahead for the Bitcoin price. He said that market bottoms typically take time to fully develop, and prolonged sideways movement remains a possibility.  A downturn in equities could exert additional pressure on digital assets, and the broader market still appears to lack a strong catalyst to drive sustained upside momentum.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may not be building a base for recovery.  Instead, the firm argues that the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to another downward move, driven by three overlapping forces: weakening equity momentum, structural changes in Bitcoin’s volatility profile, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is steady but not supportive. Structural Headwinds For Bitcoin According to the report, Bitcoin no longer trades in isolation. It has become increasingly linked to equity markets, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. At the moment, that linkage is not working in its favor.  Bitcoin is already showing signs of weakness, equity markets are losing steam, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining a neutral stance that offers little additional liquidity support. Together, those factors keep downside risks elevated. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown While Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize in recent weeks, Ecoinometrics cautions that this does not resemble a clear bottoming pattern. Rather, it looks more like a pause within an ongoing bear phase.  Structural headwinds are already in place, as highlighted by the firm, including continued outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a broader “risk-off” environment in financial markets. The report noted that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend, with its 200-day moving average (currently above $100,000) turning downward and rallies repeatedly failing beneath that level — a classic sign of a bearish structure.  By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them.  Lower Volatility, Higher Correlation Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and subsequent crashes.  This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower.  This change reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles.  Bitcoin, in other words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability.  However, it comes with a trade-off: deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. Downside Risks Grow On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully contained, and the labor market remains resilient.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture As a result, rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground. For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets begin to slide. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com