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Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown  Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market.  Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions.  He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions.  According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating.  Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe.  In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends.  However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.”  This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation.  He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking.  By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency.  In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory.  Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.  Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold.  He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto market maker Wintermute published a detailed market update on Tuesday via X (previously Twitter), offering a comprehensive breakdown of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent collapse, who was behind the selling pressure, and what conditions must change for a meaningful recovery to take hold. Wintermute Details Brutal Bitcoin Crash The firm described the past week as exceptionally severe for Bitcoin. Prices fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and continued sliding to around $60,000 before stabilizing in the low $70,000 range by the weekend.  According to Wintermute, the decline erased all of Bitcoin’s gains that followed Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, accompanied by widespread liquidations.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target More than $2.7 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out as months of range‑bound trading encouraged excessive leverage that ultimately unraveled.  Wintermute also pointed to the growing influence of Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) on price action, noting that BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw more than $10 billion in notional trading volume on Thursday.  Wintermute identified three major catalysts that struck the market at the same time. The first was the January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, which altered expectations around monetary policy.  The second was a wave of disappointing earnings from large technology firms, highlighted by Microsoft shares dropping 10%. The third was a dramatic reversal in precious metals, where silver plunged 40% in just three days after briefly reaching $121.  The Key Conditions For BTC’s Next Recovery Data from spot markets suggest that selling pressure was structural rather than isolated. The Coinbase premium remained in negative territory throughout the decline, a pattern that has persisted since December and signals sustained selling by US investors.  Wintermute said its internal over‑the‑counter (OTC) flow data confirmed that US counterparties were heavy sellers throughout the week, a trend that was reinforced by ongoing ETF redemptions. Institutional demand, which had supported prices earlier in the cycle, has largely faded. Since November, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $6.2 billion in cumulative net outflows, representing the longest continuous stretch of redemptions since these products launched.  Wintermute explained that when ETF sponsors are forced to sell spot Bitcoin into falling markets, it creates a negative feedback loop that amplifies downside pressure.  The firm also highlighted growing fragility in derivatives markets. IBIT and Deribit together now account for half of the crypto options market. Wintermute said the sharp sell‑off reflected investor complacency after periods of low volatility and sideways trading, which left positioning vulnerable once prices began to move. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Beyond crypto‑specific factors, Wintermute argued that the broader investment landscape has been dominated by artificial intelligence. The firm pointed to a viral chart showing Bitcoin’s performance closely mirroring software stocks in the S&P 500.  According to Wintermute, the more important takeaway is that AI has been absorbing a disproportionate share of global capital, often at the expense of other asset classes, including crypto. Looking ahead, Wintermute expects a period of uneven and volatile price discovery. The firm said it is difficult to envision a sustained rally unless several conditions align: the Coinbase premium turning positive, ETF flows reversing back into inflows, and basis rates in derivatives markets stabilizing.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices since last October, analysts at Bernstein argue that the current downturn does not resemble a traditional crypto bear market.  In a note to clients released on Monday, the firm described the pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” even as the asset has fallen about 44% from its all‑time highs in current trading. Bernstein Defends Bitcoin’s Fundamentals The analysis was led by Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, who said the recent sell‑off reflects a loss of confidence rather than deeper structural problems.  The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact and that the decline should not be mistaken for a systemic breakdown. Bernstein reaffirmed its long‑term outlook, maintaining a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bernstein noted that many of the “red flags” that have historically preceded major Bitcoin crashes are missing this time. The analyst asserts that there have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the crypto ecosystem.  Instead, the firm sees a market weighed down by negative sentiment, even as broader conditions appear unusually favorable. The analysts pointed to what they described as strong institutional support for Bitcoin.  This includes a pro‑Bitcoin US president, the continued expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), growing adoption by corporate treasuries, and sustained interest from large asset managers.  In Bernstein’s view, these factors clearly distinguish the current cycle from past downturns that were driven by excess risk and fragile market structures. Holders And Miners Can Weather Long Downturn The firm also addressed shifting narratives around technology trends. Bernstein noted that some investors now argue Bitcoin has become irrelevant as global attention turns toward artificial intelligence (AI).  The analysts dismissed that view, saying it reflects changing investor focus rather than a genuine threat to Bitcoin’s role. They added that fears around quantum computing have similarly been overstated, pointing out that such risks would affect all critical digital systems, not just Bitcoin. The firm further downplayed fears of forced selling driven by corporate treasuries or miner capitulation. Bernstein said major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to withstand prolonged downturns.  Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In Referencing comments from Strategy’s recent earnings call, the analysts noted that only an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years—would trigger a need for restructuring. Miners, they added, are also better positioned than in past cycles. Many have diversified their revenue by reallocating power resources toward AI data center demand, reducing reliance on Bitcoin mining alone and easing pressure from production costs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,627, having recorded losses of 20% and 22% over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle.  Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov  According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026.  What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its sharp sell‑off on Thursday, briefly falling below the $67,000 level and marking its lowest price since November 2024.  The renewed pressure follows commentary from market analyst Hugo Crypto, who pointed to a recent report from investment bank Stifel outlining a notably bearish outlook for Bitcoin.  Deeper Bitcoin Drawdown Ahead? According to Stifel’s analysis, the leading cryptocurrency could continue declining toward $38,000. If reached, that target would represent an additional drop of roughly 43% from current levels and would place Bitcoin back at prices last seen in January 2024. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Stifel’s forecast is built on several macro and market‑specific factors. The firm cited the impact of tighter US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, ongoing uncertainty and stagnation around US crypto regulation, shrinking market liquidity, and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs).  The bank also framed its outlook within the context of historical Bitcoin market cycles. According to Stifel, Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025 fits a familiar pattern seen in prior cycles, which have typically been followed by extended and deep drawdowns.  Additional warnings were echoed by market observer Walter Bloomberg, who highlighted weakening demand, a sharp slowdown in ETF inflows, and growing stress in derivatives markets.  Futures markets, in particular, appear to be entering what he describes as a “forced deleveraging” phase, where leveraged positions are unwound rapidly, adding to selling pressure. BTC Faces Key Technical Test ETF data from Thursday further illustrates the strain on market sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have so far recorded net outflows of approximately 7,925 BTC on the day, equivalent to about $533 million.  Over the past seven days, net outflows have totaled roughly 19,090 BTC, or around $1.28 billion, reinforcing concerns that institutional demand is fading rather than providing support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash To $72,000 Signals Major Reset: On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate From a technical perspective, analyst MartyParty highlighted the importance of the $68,000 level, which Bitcoin would need to reclaim to stabilize in the near term. This area aligns with the 200‑week exponential moving average, a level often viewed as critical during major market corrections.  Failure to hold above that zone could open the door to a move toward the 200‑week simple moving average, currently near $58,000, according to technical analysts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $67,100, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 20% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn.  The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins.  Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market.  Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market.  With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases.  Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness.  Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction.  Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds.  Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), slid to its lowest price level seen since November 2024 on Tuesday, falling below the $73,000 threshold. The asset dropped to around $72,900 as growing concerns about a prolonged bear market continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is down roughly 4% over the past 24 hours and about 15% over the last seven days. Yet, the sell‑off has not been limited to Bitcoin. Other digital assets have also come under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) losing 25% over the past week and XRP falling approximately 17% during the same period. Bitcoin May Drift Lower For Months Augustine Fan, a partner at Hong Kong‑based crypto options platform SignalPlus, said to Bloomberg that confidence among traders has sunk to extremely low levels, further contributing to the ongoing sell-off.  He noted that volatility, which had been trending lower for nearly a year, has finally picked up as traders rushed to hedge their positions. According to Fan, markets are now firmly operating in bear‑market conditions. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s weakness could persist. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said recent price action suggests Bitcoin may continue to drift lower in the coming weeks or even months.  He pointed to the 200‑week moving average (MA), currently near $58,000, as a potential downside target. He added that there is a noticeable supply gap between the $70,000 and $80,000 range, which could add to near‑term volatility. Bearish Bets Build  Market analyst DarkFost observed that funding rates on the Binance platform have moved into what he described as an “extreme zone,” signaling a buildup of short positions and a growing bearish consensus among traders.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Nonetheless, as of this writing, Bitcoin has briefly recovered from Tuesday’s lows, currently trading just above $75,000. From a technical perspective, DarkFost identified two key price levels now in focus for the leading cryptocurrency: resistance around $74,000 and support near $69,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday.  The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated.  They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum.  While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart.  If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully.  A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range.  Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact.  If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

While gold has posted major gains, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show major signs of weakness, with prices drifting toward lower support levels and now approaching the closely watched $82,000 mark, a pivotal point in determining the next major direction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Against this backdrop, market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn attention to what he describes as one of the most important charts of the current Bitcoin cycle: the Gold‑to‑Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio.  What The Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio Suggests According to Profit, this chart has repeatedly provided reliable signals for major market tops and bottoms. He noted that he first shared this framework nearly a year ago, highlighting a historical pattern in which Bitcoin tends to peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold, and bottom when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Toward $85,000 Despite Progress On US Crypto Market Structure Bill Profit pointed out that this relationship played out during the previous cycle, accurately marking Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. He argues that the same pattern has repeated in the current cycle, claiming Bitcoin’s recent top near $125,000 when the gold‑to‑Bitcoin ratio once again reached the 0.02 level. The key question now, he says, is whether the market will again reach the 0.11 BTC‑per‑ounce level that has historically signaled a bottom. Based on current prices, Profit walked through the math.  Assuming a gold price of roughly $5,500 per ounce, dividing that figure by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin price near $50,000. That outcome, he noted, aligns with his broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low could fall somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000. He added that even under a more bullish scenario for gold, the analysis still supports his thesis. If gold were to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the same ratio would imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000. In his view, both scenarios reinforce the idea that gold is likely to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. BTC Nearing Late‑Cycle Bear Phase? Not all analysts, however, share that bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst Michael van de Poppe suggested that gold’s recent strength could be nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin.  Van de Poppe highlighted the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin measured against gold on the weekly timeframe, noting that it has reached the lowest level ever recorded.  In his assessment, this suggests a sharp imbalance in valuations, with one asset appearing overextended in the short term and the other deeply undervalued. He described the situation as part of what he calls the “big rotation” phase of the market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns The analyst also pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score indicator, a metric used to assess whether the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility.  According to van de Poppe, the current Z‑Score for Bitcoin is lower than it was at several major historical bottoms, including those seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID‑19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low. In his view, this signals that BTC is already deep into a bear‑market phase and may be approaching its final stages.  At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $83,435, with losses of 2.2% and 7% recorded in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide on Thursday, extending the downward trend seen throughout the week and briefly falling below the closely watched $85,000 level, despite progress on long-awaited US crypto legislation failing to lift market sentiment. Crypto Prices Fall Despite Regulatory Progress The decline came on the same day the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the proposed crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act. While the committee’s action was widely viewed as a positive development for the digital asset industry, it did little to support prices in the short term. Related Reading: White House To Host Crypto And Banking Leaders In Push To Break Regulatory Deadlock Instead of triggering a rally, the news coincided with a sharp market sell‑off. Bitcoin dropped by roughly $2,700 in a short period, setting off a wave of liquidations that erased an estimated $356 million in long positions. Data from Coinglass further shows that total liquidations across the crypto market reached about $803 million over the past 24 hours, including roughly $693 million in long liquidations and $109 million in short liquidations. Bitcoin Hovers Near Breakdown Levels  As earlier reported by Bitcoinist, the CLARITY Act cleared an important procedural hurdle earlier on Thursday when the Senate Agriculture Committee approved its section of the bill during a scheduled markup. The legislation aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. With the Agriculture Committee’s approval secured, lawmakers must merge the provisions that expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) role with parallel sections overseen by the Senate Banking Committee, which address the Securities and Exchange Commission’s jurisdiction.  At the same time, legislators will need to determine whether bipartisan backing can still be achieved for a measure that could significantly reshape crypto regulation in the US.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns From a technical perspective, market analyst Rekt Capital said that in the near term, Bitcoin needs to prevent the former range low around $86,000 from turning into resistance on lower time frames. He added that a weekly close above that level would be necessary to avoid a deeper breakdown. According to his analysis, a decisive break below the roughly $86,000 area could open the door to another test of the macro triangle bottom near $82,500. A further drop below that level, he cautioned, would signal an acceleration of bearish momentum. As of now, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has only briefly recovered to $85,135. However, it is still far from reaching the critical level outlined by the analyst. Therefore, Friday’s price action will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns.  In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is spreading beyond short‑term traders and gradually affecting longer‑term holders. In previous market cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator started trending upward well before prices reached their eventual lows.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs During those periods, Bitcoin prices continued to decline even after the metric turned higher, with true market bottoms forming only once supply in loss expanded much further and broader capitulation set in. At present, CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s supply in loss remains well below levels typically associated with full market capitulation. However, the change in direction itself is significant.  The analysts say it suggests the market may be shifting into a bearish structural phase, rather than experiencing a brief correction within an ongoing bull market. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to reflect that uncertainty. The asset is currently trading around $89,700 and has struggled to reclaim the key $90,000 level as support.  This follows a steady decline from earlier yearly-highs near $98,000, where upward momentum faded as buying pressure weakened and gains recorded at the start of the year were fully erased. US Dollar Tests Historic Zone For Bitcoin Rallies Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts believe the outlook is entirely negative. Analysts at Bull Theory have highlighted a potentially bullish catalyst that could emerge in the months ahead, centered on movements in the US dollar.  In a recent post on social media platform X (previously Twitter) the firm pointed out that the US Dollar Index is testing the same zone that preceded major Bitcoin bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. According to their analysis, the Dollar Index has broken below a long‑term trendline that has held for roughly 16 years and is now hovering around the critical level of 96. Historically, periods when the DXY fell below 96 and remained there coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies.  Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis As seen in the chart below, in mid‑2017, the index dropped under that level, after which Bitcoin surged nearly eightfold over the following five to six months. A similar pattern played out during the 2020 pandemic era.  When a wave of liquidity entered financial markets at the time, the DXY again slipped below 96, and Bitcoin went on to rise roughly seven times over the next seven to eight months. During that same period, Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins posted gains of tenfold or more. For now, the market sits at a crossroads. On‑chain data points to early bear‑market dynamics, while macro signals linked to the US dollar offer a counter‑narrative that could favor renewed strength.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market’s largest cryptocurrency. Rate Cut Odds Fade The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Economists surveyed by financial data provider FactSet anticipate the federal funds rate — the benchmark rate banks use for overnight lending — will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.  Such a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: XRP Outlook For 2026: AI Model Signals New Record Ahead — Can Price Reach $6? Despite that earlier momentum, the Bitcoin price has struggled to maintain its footing. Ahead of the FOMC decision, the cryptocurrency is trading near $87,780, roughly 30% below the all‑time highs reached last year.  Market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to Bitcoin’s historical behavior around FOMC meetings as a reason for caution. In a recent post on X (previously Twitter) Martinez highlighted that expectations for a January rate cut are extremely low, estimated at just 2.8%, signaling that meaningful policy easing is unlikely in the near term.  That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed’s policy meetings.  Of the eight FOMC decisions held during the year, seven were followed by notable declines for the Bitcoin price. The January meeting was followed by a 27% drop, March saw a 14% decline, June was down 8%, July slipped 6%, September fell 7%, October recorded a 29% pullback, and December ended with a 9% loss.  The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision.  Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision Zone From a technical and on‑chain perspective, analyst BitBull also sees the Bitcoin price approaching a critical moment. BitBull noted on social media that the asset has entered what she describes as a key on‑chain decision zone.  At current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven.  Related Reading: Tether Reveals Massive Gold Accumulation In Q4: Adds 27 Tons To Reserves BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater.  As a result, any upward move toward that zone could face selling pressure as traders look to exit at reduced losses. On the downside, the True Market Mean at around $80,700 has historically marked the boundary between a “routine correction and deeper structural weakness.”  Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests that long‑term holders remain firmly in profit and largely unshaken by recent volatility. BitBull argues if the Bitcoin price can maintain support above the $87,500 level, it would indicate that active capital is defending its position and that broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level, however, could open the door for a move toward $80,700. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the significant $90,000 mark once again, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter). Is $37,000 On The Horizon?   Neuner highlighted that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the crypto market still struggles to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin? Related Reading: Ethereum Poised For $4,000 Breakout? Expert Pinpoints On-Chain Triggers For Potential Rally Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each Halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have reached its peak around early October, where it briefly touched $125,000.  Historical trends show that following these peaks, Bitcoin typically endures a substantial decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downturn to around $37,000 in the event of a full bear market. Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performances in both stocks and commodities, market corrections are to be expected.  During risk-off periods in equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, contributing to building pressure toward the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin might be around the $57,000 mark, where the 200-week moving average (MA) resides. Critical Bitcoin Support Levels To Watch The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 threshold are linked to heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.  Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downtrend has been spurred by various macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies that have added to market instability.  Related Reading: Is A New XRP Price Record Imminent? Analyst Forecast Colossal Short Squeeze Ahead Consequently, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which recently reached a record price exceeding $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underappreciated.  Demand for downside protection in Bitcoin’s options market is also rising, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines. The next significant levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term, according to Bloomberg, lie between $84,000 and $85,000, which are expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to hold these levels, fears of a deep bear market may become more pronounced. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a notable surge, approaching its nearest resistance level at $94,000, a barrier that has thus far hindered the cryptocurrency’s return to significant milestones, including the coveted $100,000 mark. Despite this, experts remain optimistic about new all-time highs for Bitcoin within the year. Potential Bitcoin Return To $100,000 Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, commented on the recent price movements, suggesting that the uptick is more likely a reflexive response from investors who are rebalancing their portfolios after last year’s heavy sell-off, rather than an indication of a fundamental trend shift.  “The bounce in Bitcoin we’re seeing this week is most likely a reflexive move by investors rather than something indicative of a major shift in trend,” Puckrin explained. Related Reading: New Hope For Crypto: Senators Introduce Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act Currently, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum after rejecting the $94,700 resistance level. Puckrin warns that a failure to break through this barrier could lead to another decline in value. However, if BTC does breach this resistance, he believes a return to the $100,000 level may be achievable.  Looking further ahead, Puckrin anticipates another all-time high in 2026, although he advises caution regarding the extent of that potential rise. “In the longer term, I expect to see another all-time high this year, but it won’t be as dramatic as some are predicting, and the possibility of a reversal into bear territory remains very real,” he added. Key Resistance Level Contrasting this optimism, some analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin’s immediate prospects. Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of First Information, maintains a bearish outlook, arguing that the risk-reward ratio at current prices is unappealing.  Stanzione evaluates Bitcoin against gold rather than the dollar, asserting that Bitcoin has considerable ground to cover. “I was negative on Bitcoin throughout 2025, and I’m sticking with that view in 2026,” he noted.  He pointed out that while the market’s leading cryptocurrency experienced a decline of about 6% by the end of 2025, gold surged by 66%, resulting in a significant disparity in performance. Related Reading: Coinbase Mulls Exiting Support For Crypto Market Structure Bill Ahead Of January 15 Deadline Stanzione believes gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin this year, predicting that the digital asset will close the year at a lower price. “There are no compelling reasons to buy Bitcoin at the current $92,000 level,” he stated.  Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial price level for Bitcoin in the short term, stating on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that $94,555 is the “bullish trigger” for the cryptocurrency.  Should Bitcoin break through this level, Martinez indicated that the next target could be $105,291, representing a potential 12% increase. This move would significantly narrow the gap to the all-time high of over $126,000 reached last October. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

After a robust start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered significant resistance that has hindered its recovery trajectory, resulting in a brief dip below the $90,000 mark over the last few days. As analysts evaluate the situation, they have identified crucial levels that will influence Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. Critical Bitcoin Price Levels In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Ted Pillows outlined three critical price points for Bitcoin in the short-term price action. The first key level to monitor is $89,200, which has served as a vital support.  Should the Bitcoin price fall below this threshold, Ted Pillows predicts a subsequent drop toward the $87,500 level. But beyond this, Pillows cautioned that if the $87,500 support is lost on a daily basis, it could signal a significant downward trend for the cryptocurrency’s price in the near-term. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report On the upside, the analyst suggested that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $94,000 to $95,000 range to establish a positive momentum. Notably, a daily close above this level could pave the way for BTC to reach between $102,000 and $103,000.  Similarly, fellow analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the importance of the cryptocurrency’s price in maintaining its position above $87,200 to avoid a potential decline toward $69,230, which implies a potential 24% drop if this scenario materializes.  Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a slight uptick, reaching $91,390 at the time of writing, partly due to the US Supreme Court’s decision to delay a ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs case, an event anticipated to bring volatility to the cryptocurrency market. Bitfinex Whales’ Moves  Beyond technical analysis, there is a developing trend that many have overlooked. Bitfinex whales are apparently unwinding their BTC long holdings aggressively. Analysts such as Ash Crypto point out that this type of “unwind” has traditionally preceded significant market turbulence.  During a similar event in early 2025, the Bitcoin price stalled around the $74,000 level but subsequently experienced a major recovery rally of approximately 50%, surging to the $112,000 mark within just 43 days. Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils Ash noted that this could suggest that a similar pattern could unfold potentially this month, targeting price levels of $135,000 or more in the near term, which could result in a new all-time high for the market’s leading cryptocurrency.  According to analysts, Bitfinex whales successfully relieve market pressure brought on by sizable clusters of long holdings when they “clear the books.” By lowering the market’s targets, price-hunting algorithms can more easily change the direction upward. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050.  The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy.  Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions. The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability. Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case.  ‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’ In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR.  Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide. Related Reading: GENIUS Act Key Provisions In Spotlight: XRP Attorney Deaton Alerts To Bankers’ Role For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR.  In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On Monday, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $93,000 mark, spurred by a wave of renewed optimism that has also revitalized altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), all of which are experiencing recoveries not seen in nearly a month.  According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has recorded a weekly surge of 7%, while Ethereum and Solana have outperformed the leading cryptocurrency with increases of nearly 9% during the same period. Notably, XRP has taken the lead, boasting a significant 15% uptrend. Large Holders Drive Bitcoin Surge A key driver behind this recent surge, especially for Bitcoin, can be attributed to large holders, or “whales,” who have acquired approximately 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, amounting to roughly $23 billion.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Price On The Brink Of A 9,000% Rally To $10? What Historical Performance Shows Market analyst NoLimit highlighted this crucial development in a recent social media post, noting its significance: this accumulation represents 1.3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and marks the largest net buy from this group in 13 years. However, NoLimit asserts that this doesn’t imply that Bitcoin will see an immediate surge in its value. It indicates that long-term investors are aggressively positioning themselves even while the broader market sentiment remains mixed. Will BTC Establish A Macro Lower High? In the short term, though, market analyst Rekt Capital warns that despite Bitcoin hovering just above $93,400, it has closed its 12-month candle below the $93,500 mark. This suggests that the $93,500 level is likely to act as resistance moving forward.  Historical patterns across four-year cycles indicate that such resistances can hinder price movement for an extended period, often resisting for up to three years before being breached in the next Halving year. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows Should Bitcoin indeed be in the early stages of a bear market, this could imply that prices might surpass the $93,500 resistance in the coming months only to establish a macro lower high before continuing their downward trajectory.  According to Rekt Capital, the sustainable breakout above this resistance is more likely to occur in the next halving year in 2028. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross—a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections.  Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media site X (previously Twitter). Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction  Martinez emphasized the importance of watching the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin has registered a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by substantial corrections.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Long-Term Bullish Structure Still In Play And Will Cross $10 As seen in the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart below, past occurrences of such crossovers have led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022.  With the recent death cross-forming, Martinez suggests that if history is any guide, Bitcoin could face a correction between 50% and 60%, which would place its price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000.  Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future.  Two Scenarios For BTC’s Future Following Bitcoin’s downturn since its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. Coinciding with this, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the breakout zone. Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance exhibit an inverse correlation, Mags has identified two main scenarios moving forward. The first, a bullish scenario, hinges on the idea that if USDT dominance begins to decline, the current breakout could turn out to be a fakeout.  Mags asserts that such a move could potentially ignite another expansion in Bitcoin’s price, possibly even leading to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs. Related Reading: Here’s How Much The XRP Price Will Be If It Overtakes Ethereum In Market Cap Conversely, Mags outlined a second scenario indicating early signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin might experience a temporary bounce, while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range before trending back upwards.  In this case, BTC would exhibit a slow distribution pattern, marking neither a crash nor a rapid decline, but rather a gradual, choppy downward movement characteristic of initial bearish market behavior. The next move in USDT dominance is poised to play a crucial role in determining whether the current market represents a mere pause before further price continuation or the onset of an extended distribution phase leading up to a new all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain its position below the $90,000 threshold, market sentiment appears to be shifting toward the possibility of a new bear market. Notably, analyst Ali Martinez has drawn comparisons with historical market cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s trajectory.  Bitcoin Market Patterns In a recent social media post, Martinez highlighted a recurring pattern that suggests it typically takes around 1,064 days for Bitcoin to transition from a market bottom to a market top, followed by approximately 364 days from a market peak back to the next bottom. Related Reading: Ethereum Fails To Surpass $3,000: Predictions For The Final Days Of The Year In the first cycle, the market bottomed out in January 2015 and reached its peak in December 2017, exactly 1,064 days later. This was followed by a bear market that lasted 364 days, culminating in the bottom in December 2018.  The second cycle mirrored this pattern: the market bottomed in December 2018 and reached its apex in November 2021, again over a span of 1,064 days. Subsequently, another downturn followed, leading to a bottom in November 2022, when Bitcoin traded around $15,500. Next Bottom At $37,500? Currently, the analyst highlights that the market is in what could be the third cycle, having witnessed a market bottom in November 2022 and a current peak above $126,000 reached back in October.  Applying the historical patterns of these cycles, it suggests that Bitcoin is now within the 364-day correction window, indicating a potential bottom could materialize around October 2026 — approximately 288 days from now. Related Reading: Altcoin Struggles: What The Future Holds And The Potential For A 2026 Revival Examining past bear markets offers additional context for projecting potential downside. The bear market from 2017 to 2018 saw a correction of approximately 84%, while the market decline from 2021 to 2022 experienced a retracement of roughly 77%.  Averaging these two corrections, Martinez suggests an expected retracement of around 80%, positioning Bitcoin’s next market bottom at around $37,500. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading slightly above the $88,290 mark, which is a 30% gap from the current peak.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price has experienced a significant correction after reaching all-time highs above $126,000 in October, currently trading just above $87,900. This marks a notable 30% decline over the past few months.  Despite this setback, analysts at Citi express optimism for the cryptocurrency’s future, forecasting that its value will continue to rise through 2026. Optimistic Bitcoin Price Predictions According to Citi’s analysts, the base case for the Bitcoin price is set at $143,000, reflecting a potential 62% increase from current levels. In a more bullish scenario, the cryptocurrency could surge to over $189,000, indicating a substantial 114% increase.  Conversely, the analysts also present a bear case for the leading crypto, with an estimated price around $78,500, which would represent an additional 10.6% decline from current trading levels. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Support Shattered, Potential $100 Test Looms, Says Analyst The forecast from Citi relies on the assumption that investor adoption will persist, particularly with an influx of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) projected to reach $15 billion. This influx is seen as a catalyst that could significantly boost the Bitcoin price.  Furthermore, ongoing negotiations in the US Senate regarding their version of the crypto market structure bill, namely the CLARITY Act, which aims to regulate Bitcoin under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is anticipated to enhance market adoption. In contrast to Bitcoin, analysts express concerns regarding Ethereum’s (ETH) potential for growth. They argue that Ethereum, being viewed more as “programmable money,” has seen decreased activity, which has resulted in its current trading price of just below $3,000—40% below its all-time high of $4,964. Additional Catalyst For Price Growth Chris Neiger, an analyst at The Motley Fool, also attaches bullish predictions to the Bitcoin price future, highlighting that recent US job data reflects an unemployment rate increase to 4.6%, the highest since 2021.  He asserted that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) chose to lower interest rates by 2026, the Bitcoin price could benefit since lower rates typically enhance the cryptocurrency’s value by making borrowing more affordable. In November, JPMorgan provided a more conservative estimate, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 by 2026, with potential upside expected over the next six to twelve months.  Related Reading: Crypto Payments Firm MoonPay Set For $5 Billion Valuation With NYSE Owner’s Backing Meanwhile, even more aggressive predictions from market researcher Fundstrat forecast the Bitcoin price could soar between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026, largely driven by the mainstream adoption of ETFs. Additionally, the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the federal government has encouraged states to consider similar initiatives. Neiger concludes that just as ETFs have contributed to the credibility of cryptocurrencies and facilitated price increases, the formation of state-level Bitcoin reserves could serve as another critical driver propelling Bitcoin’s value higher in 2026. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

During what many anticipated would be the year of a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, market expert Axel Adler has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency finds itself at the midpoint of a bear cycle.  A Mild Bear Cycle Compared To History As of now, Bitcoin has recorded a modest year-to-date decline of 4%. However, the cryptocurrency has shown some stability this week, consolidating in the range of $89,000 to $94,000, with the latter figure serving as immediate resistance.  According to Adler, this current correction, which stands at approximately -32%, is considered less severe compared to previous bear cycles. He emphasizes that approximately 88% of Bitcoin holdings remain in unrealized profit, while only about 12% of the total supply is currently at a loss. Adler points out that Bitcoin’s price action has remained relatively steady within the $90,000 zone, reflecting a mild drawdown in historical context.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Volume Explosion: Leading Meme Coin Barrels Ahead In This Metric The crucial question as the year approaches its end is whether this correction will stabilize between -35% and -40% from its all-time high, indicating a new, more “flattened” cycle, or if the market will follow historical trends that typically lead to deeper declines of -60% to -70%. Analyzing past cycles, Adler notes that major bear markets in 2011, 2016, 2019, and 2023 were characterized by a significant increase in the percentage of coins at a loss, often rising to around 60%. These levels typically marked capitulation points in the market.  In contrast, the current landscape shows only 12% of holders experiencing unrealized losses, which diverges sharply from the patterns observed during past bear markets. Can Bitcoin Avoid Deeper Declines? The expert further noted that during recent local cycle peaks, only about 17% of coins were in the red, a figure that remains three to four times lower than traditional capitulation levels.  This unusual configuration suggests that the current market may resemble a correction within a bullish supercycle rather than the final downturn of a full-blown bear market. Adler believes that the market appears to be testing the resilience of this correction structure, which stands at -32% from its peak, while maintaining a high ratio of profitable positions.  Related Reading: Pundit Highlights The Condition That Will Trigger A 2,300% XRP Rally To $50 He argues that if Bitcoin can sustain this maximum drawdown above the -35% zone alongside moderate unrealized losses, it could bolster the case for a shift towards more “flat” corrections influenced by institutional demand and a structural supply deficit. On the contrary, should Bitcoin’s correction extend beyond the -40% mark, the likelihood of entering a classic bear market increases significantly. Such a scenario would pave the way for deeper declines, potentially reaching the -60% to -70% range, and could trigger a full capitulation phase in terms of unrealized loss metrics. At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $93,000, marking gains of 5% and nearly 9% in the 24-hour and 14-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility throughout the year, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs) before enduring sharp corrections of up to 30%, the cryptocurrency community has become increasingly polarized regarding its future direction.  Many analysts are raising concerns about a potential bear market emerging in 2026; however, market expert Shanaka Anslem has offered a different perspective on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), questioning whether 2025 has already represented the real bear market. A Sign Of Cycle Change In his analysis, Anslem highlights key evidence. For the first time in history, Bitcoin breached its all-time high prior to the Halving event in April of this year, which he argues isn’t a bullish signal but rather an indication of the cycle inverting.  According to him, 2024 should not be viewed as the beginning of a new bull run; instead, it was a period of what he calls “political repricing” as the market factored in a pro-crypto administration with President Donald Trump’s reelection.  Related Reading: Here’s How High The Dogecoin Price Will Go Once The MACD Bullish Cross Happens The characteristics of a bear market have been evident in 2025, according to Anslem. Bitcoin’s dominance has reached multi-year highs while altcoins continue to struggle, leading to quarter-after-quarter declines in their values.  Additionally, a massive $3.5 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows occurred within just one month. This year saw a significant 29% drawdown from its October highs, paired with extreme fear readings on various sentiment indices. Anslem insists that while the four-year Halving cycle remains relevant, its impact has evolved. With $120 billion in ETF interconnected with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity, the Halving continues to dictate BTC’s supply, but demand now aligns with broader economic narratives rather than the more crypto-specific factors. Major Bitcoin Rally Ahead?  What does Anslem’s “cycle inversion” theory implies for 2026? If the bear market has already transpired, masked by nominal highs, the next logical phase might be a genuine blow-off top.  His predictions suggest Bitcoin’s price could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000, particularly as global liquidity continues to expand and directs capital toward hard assets. Anslem believes that many in the market are currently positioned for a downturn that has already occurred. However, dissenting opinions exist. Analyst Mr. Wall Street argues that the bottom for Bitcoin has not yet arrived and won’t be realized in the coming weeks or months.  Related Reading: Here’s When The Altcoin Season Happens Following The Bitcoin Cycle He highlights that the critical support level has been breached, indicated by the weekly exponential moving-average (EMA50) closing below the threshold.  He asserts that the market has entered the early stages of a substantial bear market, predicting that it will only abate once Bitcoin reaches the $54,000 to $60,000 range, which he expects might occur in the fourth quarter of 2026.  Despite this bearish outlook, he remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin in the short term. He expects a potential upward movement to retest the EMA50 Weekly, which currently stands at approximately $100,000, while maintaining that mid-term targets are much lower.  At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $90,352, which represents a 28% difference between current valuations and ATH levels.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027. Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening.  They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.  The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise. Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range.  This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets. Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.  Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion. Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets.  Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity. There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends.  Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth. Extended Bitcoin Uptrend Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory. Related Reading: Trend Reversal Puts Dogecoin On A Path To $0.188 The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.  The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend. Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent.  Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk? Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.”  This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses. Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year.  He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA. If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook.  BTC Bottom In Sight?  Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments.  He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms. Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment. Related Reading: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Goes Live Today: Experts Predict Potential Supply Crunch Ahead Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers. Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its relief rally since the start of the week, successfully reclaiming the significant $93,000 mark on Wednesday afternoon. This uptick in the cryptocurrency’s price has sparked mixed sentiments among experts regarding its future direction. Analysts Warn Of Resistance Ahead For Bitcoin IG analyst Chris Beauchamp highlighted the cautious optimism among Bitcoin enthusiasts, who are wary after witnessing numerous false recoveries in recent months. He noted that there appears to be a shift in risk appetite within the stock market, which is gradually spilling over into the cryptocurrency space.  However, he pointed out that while last week’s bounce faltered at the $93,000 level, the recent climb above this threshold on Wednesday instills a sense of hope for a more sustained upward movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Goes Live Today: Experts Predict Potential Supply Crunch Ahead Despite this positivity, analysts warn that more resistance levels are likely to emerge as Bitcoin rallies. Jeff deGraaf from Renaissance Macro Research outlined two significant resistance points to watch: the psychological $100,000 threshold and the $107,000 mark, both amplified by descending moving averages.  Adding another layer to the Bitcoin discourse, market analyst CryptoBullet has suggested that the Bitcoin cycle top may already be in place, reached last month above $126,000.  Will Altcoins Bounce Back? In a social media post, CryptoBullet pointed out that the performance of altcoins, measured against Bitcoin, indicates a bottoming out. This scenario, while concerning, is not unprecedented.  CryptoBullet recalled a similar situation in September 2019 when Bitcoin was consolidating about 30% below its top following an intense seven-month rally after a bear market low. At that time, altcoins also reached their cycle low. In the current context, Bitcoin’s rally has lasted significantly longer—35 months compared to the previous seven-month span. Additionally, altcoins have been on a downward trajectory for over four years, effectively more than doubling the duration of their last bear market.  Related Reading: Analyst Says This Needs To Happen For The XRP Price To Rally Again Looking ahead, CryptoBullet anticipates a challenging correction for Bitcoin in 2026, suggesting a bear market could be on the horizon. In the next two to three months, he predicts a potential bounce for altcoins, signaling a liquidity rotation and possibly a “mini altseason” during what he terms a “Dead Cat Bounce” for Bitcoin.  This mirrors the events of 2019-2020, when altcoins experienced a relief rally while Bitcoin was on a downward trend. CryptoBullet indicates that a significant altseason is expected in the next cycle, projected for 2027-2029. At the time of writing, the price of BTC is trading just above $93,000, marking gains of 2% and 3% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

After a brief period of consolidation and a bullish uptick to around $93,000 at the end of last week, the Bitcoin price has once again dipped toward the $85,000 mark, recording a significant 7% drop on Monday, according to data from CoinGecko.  Market expert Shanaka Anslem has pointed to what he refers to as “the weapon” behind this latest crash: Japanese government bonds.  Expert Warns Of Unraveling Yen Carry Trade In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the expert highlighted that the yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds reached 1.877 percent on December 1, 2025—the highest level since June 2008—while the 2-year yield hit 1 percent, a benchmark not seen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. He explained that these rising yields have triggered a significant unwinding of what Anslem describes as the largest arbitrage trade in history: the Yen Carry Trade.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Whale Activity Drops To Deepest Level In Two Months With estimates placing the total size of this trade at around $3.4 trillion and figures nearing $20 trillion, he noted that this allowed global investors to borrow Japanese yen at minimal costs to buy a variety of assets, including stocks, US Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, this era appears to have ended last month. The mechanics of this situation are straightforward but impactful, Anslem asserted. As yields rise, the yen strengthens, making leveraged positions increasingly unprofitable.  He suggested that this leads to a chain reaction: selling triggers margin calls, which in turn causes further liquidations. On October 10, $19 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history. By November, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $3.45 billion exit the market, with BlackRock’s IBIT suffering a $2.34 billion loss. On December 1 alone, an additional $646 million was liquidated before lunchtime. Will The Bitcoin Price Plunge To $75,000? This decline has occurred alongside the Bitcoin price correlations with major stock indices, showing a 46% correlation with the Nasdaq and a 42% correlation with the S&P 500.  Anslem noted in his analysis that what was once perceived as an “uncorrelated hedge” has now transformed into a leveraged indicator of global liquidity conditions. Related Reading: Is Strategy Buying Bitcoin Again? Saylor’s ‘Green Dots’ Suggest Yes Interestingly, despite the Bitcoin price collapse, whale investors accumulated 375,000 BTC during this period. Moreover, miners significantly cut back their selling, reducing monthly sales from 23,000 BTC to just 3,672.  As the market looks ahead, the expert asserted that a pivotal moment approaches on December 18 with the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision.  Anslem concluded that if the bank opts to raise rates and signal further increases, the Bitcoin price could test the $75,000 level, which would represent an additional 11% drop for the market’s leading cryptocurrency from current trading levels.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As the Bitcoin price exhibits signs of recovery, climbing back above $90,000, the cryptocurrency community finds itself sharply divided. Some analysts believe this movement is merely a relief rally preceding another downturn, while others maintain that a bull market is still in play despite a recent 30% correction. Current Data Suggests No Cycle Top Market analyst OxChain went on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), focusing on on-chain data to shed light on the current market dynamics and what investors might expect in the near future. He argues that the recent downturn does not exhibit characteristics typical of a cycle top.  In October, Bitcoin reached the mid-$120,000 range before experiencing a subsequent decline of approximately 35%. Notably, this drop transpired without the hype, fervor, or speculation that usually accompany a market peak. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Climbs Back To $91,000: Is The Decline Over? Key Levels To Watch The loss of nearly $1 trillion in market value underscores the underlying challenges. As Ethereum (ETH) and mid-cap cryptocurrencies simultaneously declined, there wasn’t an evident frenzy of speculation driving the downturn. Instead, OxChain attributes the decline primarily to a drop in demand.  A slowdown in stablecoin creation and diminished inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have led to reduced buying activity. Derivatives traders have also stepped back, with funding conditions softening and open interest unwinding. With market expectations recently leaning toward a potential interest rate cut in December, many buyers have opted to remain on the sidelines, preferring not to chase riskier assets. This hesitancy has led to a “fragile liquidity environment,” the analyst asserted.  OxChain notes that even medium-sized orders can cause price changes of several percentage points due to the scarcity of resting bids. An examination of order book snapshots reveals that market depth has been waning during active trading periods, leading to a scenario where the market appears to be “running on fumes.” Bitcoin Market Struggles Without Conviction The situation in the derivatives market further supports this cautious outlook. Volatility has risen, with traders now leaning toward protective measures rather than building long positions.  Interestingly, interest in futures contracts has decreased even amid small relief rallies, indicating that many traders are hesitant to take on larger positions. OxChain highlights a crucial trend: without leveraged conviction, market trends often struggle to gain momentum. On-chain data shows a more cautious sentiment among investors rather than outright fear.  While the coin days destroyed (CDD) metric has risen due to older coins moving, much of the long-held Bitcoin remains with patient holders who are not in a rush to sell. Related Reading: Metaplanet In Jeopardy: Bitcoin Needs To Surpass $108,000 By December 18 To Prevent New Crisis Furthermore, the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), hovering near 1, signals that there is neither extensive profit-taking nor widespread panic selling taking place.  The analyst identified that the majority of selling activity has come from mid-term holders, contributing to a muted and indecisive market flow.  Additionally, institutional investors remained relatively inactive throughout November. Significant outflows were reported in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which further contributed to the current state of the market. OxChain concluded his analysis by saying: The broader bullish narrative isn’t gone, but the near-term setup is fragile. Until a strong catalyst appears, expect a wandering market that drifts, chops, and tests lower levels. When writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading just above the $91,550 level, recording a 4% price recovery in the 24-hour time frame.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price appears to be entering a new recovery phase, as the leading cryptocurrency recaptured the $91,000 level after falling by more than 30% from all-time highs last Friday, tumbling to an 8-month low of $80,000. Critical Bitcoin Price Range Technical analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted on social media site X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday that the critical region for investors to monitor right now is between the $89,000 and $91,000 range.  He observed that this price level acted as support in late 2024 and early 2025 before becoming a point of resistance during President Donald Trump’s recent tariff negotiations with the world’s top economies, including China.  Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Hit Its Bottom? Key On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound Ahead After breaking out of this zone almost exactly one year ago, the Bitcoin price reached new highs of $109,000 in January, which held until a new uptrend in May of this year resulted in BTC reaching $112,000.  Daan emphasizes that a strong consolidation above these levels could pave the way for a rally toward the $106,000 to $108,000 range. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls back below these levels, it could revisit last week’s low of $80,000, which he identifies as the nearest support. Bullish Sentiments Amid Caution Another analyst, BitcoinVector, echoed Daan’s bullish sentiment but cautioned that the market remains in a high-risk environment and that the current momentum has yet to strengthen significantly.  According to BitcoinVector, steady momentum is required for Bitcoin to break out of the compression pattern that has formed since its all-time high.  He laid out the bullish path: first, the Bitcoin price must close within the $89,000 to $90,000 zone, followed by consolidation above this area, and finally, a breakout through the $93,500 to $95,000 compression band. For this recovery to gain traction, BitcoinVector stressed the importance of a “Risk-Off Signal,” indicating that buyers must begin to overpower sellers while generating momentum. Without such momentum, each upward movement would merely be a tactical reaction rather than indicative of a structural recovery. Prolonged Bear Market Ahead?  Market analyst Skew provided additional insights, noting that the four-hour chart for Bitcoin appears more constructive for bulls. He pointed to several indicators suggesting upward momentum, including the price being above the four-hour 50 EMA, the RSI remaining above 50, and the Stochastic RSI trending higher.  Skew identifies the $88,000 mark as a crucial “line in the sand,” arguing that a drop below this level would signal weakness and a failed attempt to gain momentum. Related Reading: Tether Faces Downgrade By S&P Global Amid Concerns Over Disclosure And Assets Holdings Despite the cautious optimism from some analysts, others, like Jacob King, offer a starkly different perspective. He argues that given the Bitcoin price decline from its all-time high in October, it has never experienced such a fall followed by a sustained bull market.  According to King, Bitcoin is now in a bear market that may persist for years, poised to affect the fortunes of countless investors, particularly those heavily leveraged. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $91,390, marking a 4% recovery within the last 24 hours. This places the cryptocurrency 27% below its all-time high.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight rebound after reaching a near eight-month low of $87,500 on Wednesday. By Thursday, the leading crypto surged back toward $90,000. However, market expert Leshka warns that this brief increase may signal only the start of a new distribution phase for Bitcoin, as selling pressure continues to build. Possible Bottom Between $40,700 And $47,500 In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Leshka assessed Bitcoin’s position on the weekly chart, identifying critical demand zones between $40,700 and $47,500 that could take shape throughout 2026.  She suggested that these levels might represent the bottom for Bitcoin during the anticipated bear market. If such forecasts materialize, this could indicate price drops of 47% to 54% from current values. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting Despite these potential lows, Leshka remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. She mentioned that if these price targets are met, Bitcoin could rebound dramatically, reaching new all-time highs of around $150,000 by 2027. In the immediate time, however, bears appear to have the upper hand in the market. Analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that the TD Sequential indicator, which is designed to signal potential market reversals, has flashed a sell signal for Bitcoin.  Historically, this indicator has been a reliable predictor of price corrections, with past occurrences resulting in drops of 78% and 32%. A median correction based on these previous downturns would indicate a possible price target of $40,000, aligning with Leshka’s forecasts for Bitcoin. Analyst Predicts Temporary Rally For Bitcoin Technical analysis from Crypto Feras also contributes to this bearish sentiment. He pointed out that Bitcoin has breached its 50-day moving average (MA50) placed above $102,000, suggesting that a period of reflection is in order.  Feras indicated that the exponential moving averages (EMA89-99) could provide initial support at $88,500, typically facilitating a short-term “bearish retest” of the MA50 after a breakdown.  The analyst noted that this potential rally usually lasts for two to five weeks and may see both Bitcoin and altcoins behave positively, even though investors might misinterpret it as a return to a bull market. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Additional support is noted at $84,000, which could be briefly retested. Feras suggested that this scenario might represent a final bear trap before a more prolonged downturn, a historical trend that could repeat itself. He also addressed the question of when the market might shift back into “bull mode.” According to Feras, Bitcoin will remain in a bear market as long as it trades below its weekly MA50.  Once Bitcoin reclaims this important moving average, discussions regarding a potential bull market or continuation of a bull trend could resume. Until that happens, he emphasized that it is premature to label Bitcoin’s current phase as anything but bearish. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com