Bitcoin continues to hover within the $90,000 price range, producing no significant price movement in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, a subtle on-chain development is indicating a potential change in market trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Is Not In At $126,000, According To The Business Cycle, Here’s Why STH SOPR Above 1 — Bullish Rebound Or Fakeout? The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is a key on-chain metric that judges investors’ sentiment. In definition, the STH-SOPR measures whether Bitcoin holders are presently selling their assets at a loss or at a profit. According to pseudonymous analyst CryptoMe, this important on-chain metric has recently flashed an eye-catching signal that could imply a trend reversal following months of deep market corrections. Notably, Bitcoin slipped into a prolonged downtrend in early October, after establishing its current all-time high at $126,100. On October 10, which represents the initial phase of this price correction, CryptoMe states the STH-SOPR fell below 1.0 in line with its natural behavior. As seen in the image above, the Bitcoin STH-SOPR stays below 1.0 during bear seasons to indicate that BTC holders are exiting at a loss. During this period, it is also observed that 1.0 midline acts as an effective resistance, restricting upward STH-SOPR movement to signal that the market structure remains weak. Alternatively, in bullish markets, the STH-SOPR moves above 1.0, which becomes a strong price floor provided a buy-side dominance remains. According to CryptoMe, this latter positive scenario has occurred in the past week, marking the first instance after October 10. In line with standard interpretation, CryptoMe explains that this recent development represents a new hope for a possible trend reversal if the STH-SOPR sustains its move above the 1.0 threshold. Notably, an opposite case would suggest a fake-out and possibly reinforce existing bearish market sentiments. Related Reading: Bitcoin Maintains Mid-$90k Levels: Possible Price Targets — Analyst Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,590, after a negligible 0.13% gain in the past 24 hours. However, its daily trading volume is down by 66.41% and valued at $13.38 billion. This suggests that market participation is fading out amid a sustained consolidation. In terms of a potential breakout, emerging market catalysts suggest an equal potential for the price to swing in either direction. For example, the odds of the Federal Open Market Committee implementing a rate cut have dropped drastically from 95% to 5%. Following recent predictions, the policy committee is likely to hold the rates steady, which may draw out a possible negative reaction from Bitcoin. On the other hand, regulatory developments in the US are shaping up positively. Most notably, the Clarity Act has been slated for a markup session, indicating progress toward regulatory clarity that could encourage further institutional and retail investment. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has been under intense selling pressure in recent sessions, leaving market participants increasingly cautious about near-term direction. On Wednesday, BTC briefly surged from the $86,000 area toward $90,000, offering short-term investors a moment of relief after weeks of downside volatility. That rebound, however, proved short-lived. Price quickly retraced back to the $86,000 level, once again stalling bullish momentum and reinforcing the perception that sellers remain firmly in control. Related Reading: From Cycles To Continuity: Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Pattern May Be Breaking This failed recovery attempt has weighed heavily on sentiment, particularly among short-term holders who entered positions at higher levels during the previous consolidation range. According to a report by Axel Adler, on-chain data reveals that this cohort has entered a clear stress regime. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the average purchase price of short-term holders, a condition that historically increases the probability of reactive selling behavior. The stress is further reflected in the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR, 30-day), which has declined to 0.98. This reading indicates that short-term holders are, on average, realizing losses when they sell. Such environments often coincide with deteriorating confidence and heightened sensitivity to further downside moves. With BTC unable to hold recent relief rallies and short-term participants increasingly underwater, the market enters a fragile phase. The coming days will be critical in determining whether this pressure evolves into deeper capitulation or stabilizes into a base-building process. Short-Term Holders Under Stress as Loss-Taking Accelerates Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR 30D) is a critical gauge of short-term market stress, as it measures whether recent coin sales are occurring at a profit or a loss. Values above one indicate that short-term holders are selling profitably, while readings below one signal loss realization. Historically, sustained periods below one reflect deteriorating confidence and raise the risk of further downside, as loss-taking behavior can cascade into additional sell pressure. A continued decline in SOPR would likely intensify this dynamic and open the door to new local lows. By contrast, a meaningful recovery would require the metric to reclaim and hold above the one level, signaling that selling pressure is being absorbed and losses are no longer dominant. This stress is reinforced by the Short-Term Holders Positive vs Negative Sentiment chart. The indicator classifies holders based on whether they are in profit or at a loss. Over the past five weeks, sentiment has shifted decisively toward the orange and purple zones, representing negative positioning. The growing dominance of underwater holders increases the probability of panic-driven selling. Together, both charts deliver a consistent message: short-term participants are under pressure, and the current environment remains fragile until clear signs of relief emerge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Structure Turns Bearish As Structural Indicators Flip Negative Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Bears Persist Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure, with the chart showing price consolidating around the $87,000 area after a sharp corrective move from the October highs near $125,000. The rejection from the upper range marked a clear shift in market structure, as BTC lost the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and failed to reclaim them on subsequent rebounds. The blue moving average has now turned downward, reinforcing the short- to medium-term bearish bias. Price is currently hovering just above the 200-day moving average, plotted in red, which sits near the $86,000–$88,000 zone. This level represents a critical area of long-term demand and structural support. Historically, sustained closes below the 200-day average tend to coincide with deeper corrective phases or prolonged consolidation. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Dries Up: Futures Buy Volume On Binance Falls from $5.8B to $250M Volume dynamics add to the cautious outlook. Selling pressure expanded significantly during the breakdown in October and November, while recent rebound attempts have occurred on relatively muted volume. This suggests that short-covering and tactical buying, rather than strong spot demand, are driving price stabilization. Structurally, Bitcoin is forming lower highs since the peak, keeping the broader trend vulnerable. A recovery scenario would require BTC to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 region and hold above the declining moving averages. Until then, the chart favors continued consolidation or further downside risk around the long-term support zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim key resistance as bulls attempt to defend current demand zones. Price action reflects a market under pressure, with momentum fading after a prolonged correction. From its all-time high, Bitcoin has now retraced roughly 30%, placing the asset firmly in a corrective phase where uncertainty and caution dominate trading behavior. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test According to a report from Axel Adler, on-chain data confirms that market stress is no longer limited to price alone. Two key indicators—the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) and the P/L Block—are signaling broad loss realization among participants and a deterioration in overall market sentiment. These metrics provide insight into the behavior of short-term holders, who are often the most sensitive to price swings and macro uncertainty. Together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin remains in a fragile state, where confidence has weakened, and recovery attempts face increasing resistance. STH SOPR and P/L Block Confirm Capitulation Pressure Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or a loss. When the indicator falls below one, it signals that recent buyers are realizing losses. Currently, the 7-day moving average of STH SOPR has slipped into the red zone, with a reading near 0.99. This confirms that short-term holders are, on average, selling Bitcoin below their acquisition price—a behavior typically associated with heightened stress and emotional selling. Historically, similar SOPR conditions have marked local capitulation phases, when selling pressure peaks and weaker hands exit the market. As long as the SOPR 7-day average remains below one, short-term participants stay in “stress mode.” Adler notes that a meaningful improvement would require a sustained move back above one on a daily close, signaling that sellers have exhausted supply and buyers are once again absorbing sell-side pressure. Complementing this signal, the P/L Block indicator tracks the aggregated profit and loss state of market participants. The current red block reflects loss dominance, with a P/L Score of minus three—classified as pronounced stress. With Bitcoin down 30% from its all-time high and 30-day returns negative, both indicators align, reinforcing a clear picture of capitulation among short-term holders. Related Reading: XRP Whale Activity Spikes At The Bottom – A Classic Pre-Rally Signal Bitcoin Price Analysis: Weekly Structure Remains Critical The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading around the $89,900 level after a sharp rejection from the $120,000–$125,000 region. Price has retraced aggressively but is now attempting to stabilize above the rising 200-week moving average (green), a level that has historically defined long-term trend validity. So far, this area is acting as dynamic support, suggesting that buyers are defending higher-cycle structure despite broader market weakness. However, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average (blue), which is now sloping downward. This configuration reflects a loss of medium-term momentum and confirms that the market is still in a corrective phase rather than a resumed uptrend. The 100-week moving average (red) continues to rise well below price, reinforcing that the broader macro trend remains intact, but also highlighting how much excess was built during the prior rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Refuse to Sell: Historic Signal Emerges As Binance CDD Drops To 2017 Levels Volume has declined during the recent consolidation, signaling indecision rather than aggressive accumulation. This typically precedes a volatility expansion. From a structural perspective, holding above the $85,000–$88,000 zone is critical. A sustained breakdown below the 200-week MA would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward the $75,000–$80,000 region. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-week MA near $95,000 would be an early signal that downside pressure is fading. Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with long-term support holding but momentum still fragile. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment, facing heavy resistance after setting a new all-time high around $124,000 yesterday. The milestone sparked excitement among bulls, but also renewed caution among analysts who warn that slowing momentum could signal a potential market cycle top. Some see the recent hesitation as a sign that buyers may be losing steam at these elevated levels. Related Reading: TRON Long-Term Holders See Massive Gains As TRX Pushes Toward Multi-Year Highs Despite the growing bearish speculation, on-chain data from CryptoQuant offers a more optimistic perspective. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR-7d) has climbed to 1.04 with Bitcoin trading near $119,000. This reading means that, on average, short-term holders are selling their coins at a profit — yet the market is successfully absorbing this selling pressure without triggering a sharp correction. Historically, maintaining SOPR above the 1.00–1.02 range, with pullbacks to unity quickly bought up, has supported continued uptrends. While the current amplitude is still below the overheated peaks of past cycles, the data suggests that profit-taking remains moderate. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether BTC can overcome its current resistance zone or if it will face a deeper retracement before attempting another push higher. Moderate Selling Pressure Hits Bitcoin According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR-7d) remains in a healthy range, with amplitude still moderate and well below the peaks of 1.06–1.09 seen in previous bullish waves. This indicates that selling pressure from short-term holders is not extreme, even as BTC trades near its all-time highs. Adler notes that the bullish scenario hinges on maintaining the SOPR-7d above 1.00–1.02, as values above unity mean that short-term holders are, on average, selling at a profit — and the market is absorbing that supply without triggering a larger sell-off. Ideally, brief pullbacks toward 1.00 should be met with strong buying interest, as quick rebounds from unity historically confirm robust demand. However, the analyst cautions that if SOPR dips below 1.0 and stays there, it would signal weakening demand. This shift would increase the probability of a deeper market correction, as it implies that coins are being sold at a loss and buyers are not stepping in aggressively enough to absorb them. The coming days will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Many analysts see BTC pushing decisively above $125,000 as the next major breakout level. Others, however, remain cautious, expecting the market to face a sharp retracement before resuming its upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2-Year Low As 30-Day Range Tightens Bitcoin Tests Resistance After Sharp Rejection from New Highs Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the cryptocurrency recently tested a new all-time high near $124,000 before facing swift rejection, pulling back to current levels around $118,777. This drop marks a failure to sustain momentum above the crucial $123,217 resistance zone, highlighted in yellow on the chart. Despite the rejection, BTC remains well-supported above the 50-day moving average (blue), currently near $115,194. This level has consistently acted as a dynamic support during the 2025 uptrend. The 100-day MA (green) at $110,456 and the 200-day MA (red) at $100,144 remain far below, underscoring the strength of the broader bullish structure. Related Reading: Ethereum 30-Day Netflow Average Deepens Negative: Buyers Dominate Market The consolidation below resistance reflects a market pausing to digest recent gains. For bulls, reclaiming $123,217 and closing above $124,000 would signal renewed momentum and could open the path toward $125,000 and beyond. A break below the 50-day MA could trigger a deeper pullback, with the 100-day MA as the next support. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
In the past week, Bitcoin has grabbed the major headlines as prices surge to a new all-time high of $118,856 following a market gain of 9.77%. In remarkable fashion, the premier cryptocurrency added an estimated $10,000 to its market value increasing its market cap to a solid $2.34 trillion. Interestingly, recent on-chain data suggest there may be more tailwind ahead backing Bitcoin’s ability to explore new price territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $118,000—But Liquidity Still Thin, Glassnode Warns STH SOPR Sits At 1.02, Suggests Market Not Overheating In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, a market analyst with username CryptoMe has shared some compelling insights on Bitcoin’s price trajectory amidst current market euphoria. As earlier stated, the flagship cryptocurrency experienced a significant price gain to brush nearly against the $120,000 mark. Despite this rise, CryptoMe notes that short-term holders’ spent output profit ratio (STH SOPR) indicates that this class of investors are yet to engage in significant profit-taking. For context, The STH-SOPR measures the ratio of realized profits or losses by investors who’ve held BTC for less than 155 days. A STH-SOPR reading above 1.0 indicates that BTC are being sold at a profit, while values below 1.0 indicate losses. Based on the chart below, sharp increases in this on-chain metric especially into the 1.05-1.20+ range (red zone) have correlated with profit-taking phases and can often precede local tops. However, the STH-SOPR currently sits at 1.02, suggesting that although some short-term holders are in profit, no aggressive market distribution has commenced. This development is particularly bullish considering the STH realized price is presently at $100,000 indicating these investors are 17%-18% in profit and are opting to hold for further price gains. Meanwhile, the analyst notes that this present on-chain situation aligns with the broader sentiment in the derivatives market. Open Interest is climbing, signaling growing participation, but funding rates remain neutral to slightly positive. This lack of extreme funding imbalances suggests that traders are not flooding the market with overleveraged long positions due to FOMO. CryptoMe explains that all these factors indicate the Bitcoin market is far from overheating and there is still potential for more growth ahead. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Oscillator Predicts First Sell Pressure Level At $130,900 – Details BTC Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,840 indicating a 3.40% in the past day but a slight 0.82% decline from the present all-time high. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is up by 96.53% indicating a strong market activity behind the ongoing rally backing the potential for a continuation. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview