Bitcoin has been in freefall recently, but this popular indicator is yet to reach the same highs as the last two cycles. Is the real top still ahead for the asset? Bitcoin aSOPR Has Been Consolidating For The Last Two Years As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin aSOPR has been consolidating between converging trendlines for nearly two years. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. Related Reading: USDC Floods Exchanges: Are Traders Buying The Bitcoin Crash? When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder is transferring their coins at some net profit on the blockchain. On the other hand, the indicator being below this threshold implies the dominance of loss taking on the network. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to 1 suggests profit realization is canceling out loss realization. In other words, the investors as a whole are just breaking even on their sales. In the context of the current discussion, the version of the SOPR that’s of interest is the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR). This indicator eliminates from the data sales of all coins that moved within an hour of their last movement. Such moves are usually relay transactions and carry no consequences for the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years: As the quant has highlighted in the graph, the 2017 and first-half 2021 bull runs both interestingly topped out as the aSOPR rose to the red line. This level corresponds to a notable degree of profit realization among the investors. Similarly, the bear markets of the last two cycles found their bottoms at about the same time as the aSOPR hitting a low at the green line, some distance below the 1 mark. At this level, loss-taking is dominant, so weak hands capitulating and resolute entities accumulating their coins could be behind the bottom formation pattern. In the current cycle so far, the aSOPR hasn’t touched the red line. Instead, the indicator has been stuck in consolidation inside two converging trendlines in a mild profit-taking region for almost the last two years. Considering the pattern of the last two cycles, it’s possible that the latest one hasn’t hit its top yet. Another possibility, however, could very well be that the aSOPR simply isn’t going to touch the red level in this cycle at all. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Retraces To Lower Bound—What Comes Next? The Bitcoin aSOPR is now slowly inching toward the end of its converging channel, so a breakout one way or the other could happen soon. It only remains to be seen which direction the indicator will exit. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,300, down 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how the Bitcoin price often forms local bottoms when this holder group shows capitulation. Bitcoin STHs Are Currently Participating In Mild Loss Realization In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about how short-term price action is often dictated by the top buyers’ reaction to post-ATH drawdowns. As the price slides down, these holders quickly get into losses and can become prone to making panic moves. Related Reading: Altseason Things: Ethereum Perps Volume Sets New Record Against Bitcoin Bitcoin is currently in such a phase, with a notable amount of supply having a cost basis in the zone between the latest spot price and $120,000, as the below chart shows. The indicator in the graph is the Cost Basis Distribution, which tells us, as its name suggests, how much of the BTC supply last changed hands at the various price levels. From the metric’s data, it’s apparent that investors have slowly been building up a dense supply cluster below $120,000 as the asset has been trading inside the range since early July. The recent Bitcoin price plunge naturally put these investors underwater, so the question is: how have these holders been reacting? An indicator that can help shed light on the matter is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This metric compares the amount of profit and loss that the investors as a whole are realizing on the network. When the value of the SOPR is greater than 1, it means the average holder is selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, it being below the threshold suggests loss-taking is dominant on the network. In the current discussion, the SOPR of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of a specific part of it: the top buyers. These would be the investors who got into the cryptocurrency over the last three months. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR for the investor cohorts falling in this age range: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin SOPR has dropped for all three of 1 day to 1 week, 1 week to 1 month, and 1 month to 3 months groups following the price decline. The indicator is now floating between 0.96 to 1.01 across these cohorts, indicating these investors have started selling at a mild loss. “If pressure builds, local bottoms often form when this group capitulates, typically when SOPR drops below ~0.9,” notes Glassnode. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Volume Signal Nailed The Top & Bottom: Analytics Firm For now, though, it seems Bitcoin may not have to wait for this capitulation signal, as its price has seen a rebound in the past day. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $116,000, down 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is trading around the $115,000 level after a sharp pullback from its recent all-time high near $124,000. Volatility has returned to the market, sparking renewed debate among analysts and investors over whether BTC is preparing for a deeper correction or gearing up for the next leg higher. The current price action reflects indecision, with buyers and sellers locked in a tight battle at these critical levels. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Grows As ETFs Break Records With $2.85B Weekly Inflow Some analysts warn that Bitcoin could face stronger selling pressure if it fails to reclaim momentum, while others argue that this retrace is a healthy reset before another aggressive move upward. What is clear, however, is that investors are preparing for heightened market swings in the coming weeks. Key on-chain data reveals that short-term holders (STHs) remain under pressure. Since November and December of 2024, the average profit realized by this group has not exceeded 5%. This means their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has stayed below 1.05, signaling that many recent market entrants have struggled to lock in meaningful gains. Historically, this kind of stagnation in STH profitability has preceded major directional moves, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the verge of its next decisive phase. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Under Pressure Top analyst Darkfost has provided a fresh take on Bitcoin’s current market structure, focusing on the behavior of short-term holders (STHs) through the lens of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The SOPR measures the average profit or loss realized when a UTxO is spent, making it one of the most reliable gauges of investor profitability and selling behavior. At present, the STH SOPR remains stuck at the neutral ratio of 1. This means that, on average, recent market entrants are breaking even on the coins they sell, rather than realizing a profit or a loss. According to Darkfost, this suggests that many STHs entered the market late, likely during Bitcoin’s push above $100,000 over the past six months. As a result, they now find themselves in a holding pattern, waiting for price appreciation to secure meaningful returns. Darkfost emphasizes that in bull markets, these dynamics often follow a predictable pattern. When STHs are shaken out, their SOPR typically dips below 1, reflecting selling at a loss. Historically, such phases have created attractive dollar-cost averaging (DCA) opportunities, as capitulation from weaker hands clears the way for stronger upward trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day CDD Down: Market Absorbs LTH Selling Without Breaking Support Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels in Focus Bitcoin is currently trading near $115,133, after pulling back sharply from the recent peak at $124,000. The chart shows that BTC has broken away from its mid-summer consolidation, but momentum has cooled, with price now testing support around the 50-day moving average ($115,712). This level will be critical in the short term, as a sustained breakdown could open the way toward the 100-day moving average near $110,833. Related Reading: Ethereum On-Chain Volume Soars To $13 Billion, Approaching Historic Records Despite the recent decline, the broader structure remains constructive. Bitcoin has spent much of the past six months above the psychological $100,000 level, establishing strong long-term support. The rejection near $123,217, marked by the yellow resistance line, suggests that bulls will need more conviction to push BTC into new highs. A clean breakout above that level could quickly send the price toward the $130,000–$135,000 region. On the downside, the 200-day moving average ($100,339) remains the ultimate line of defense. As long as BTC stays above this level, the broader bull trend remains intact. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has continued to see declining performance in recent days with on-chain metrics offering valuable insights into market behavior. Among these metrics, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders has particularly emerged as a critical tool for assessing investor sentiment and market resilience. Long-term holders, defined as investors holding Bitcoin for over 155 days, are often viewed as a stabilizing force in the market. Their selling patterns can significantly influence price trends, making SOPR an indicator worth watching. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Leverage and Coinbase Premium: What Recent Data Reveals Long-Term Holder Trends And Market Sentiment Recent analysis from a CryptoQuant analyst known as Cryptoavails highlights that Bitcoin’s long-term holder SOPR metric continues to exhibit notable patterns as Bitcoin’s price trends upward. Historically, SOPR values above 1 indicate that long-term holders are selling at a profit, while values below 1 suggest they are offloading their holdings at a loss. This behavior reflects broader market confidence or capitulation during periods of price decline. Currently, the SOPR metric remains consistently above 1, signaling that long-term holders are selling profitably without adding significant downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. The analysis from Cryptoavails tracks key phases in the Bitcoin market over the past two years, highlighting significant shifts in SOPR values. For instance, in early 2022, the SOPR metric showed high volatility with frequent spikes, suggesting intense profit-taking activity by long-term holders. Amid these sales, Bitcoin’s price experienced a downward trend, reflecting persistent selling pressure during that period. This trend gradually shifted in late 2022 and early 2023 when the SOPR metric mostly remained below 1, indicating that long-term holders were selling at a loss as the market sought to find stability. By mid-2023, the SOPR began trending upwards, signaling renewed confidence among long-term investors. The metric consistently moved closer to or above the critical level of 1, suggesting that long-term holders were once again selling at a profit while market confidence began to recover. This upward trend has remained intact into 2024, supported by Bitcoin’s rising price levels. Importantly, there have been no significant sell-offs by long-term holders, reinforcing the broader market’s stability, according to the crypto analyst. SOPR As A Forward Indicator For Market Growth Overall, Cryptoavails mentioned that the current state of Bitcoin’s SOPR suggests a healthy market dynamic, with long-term holders contributing to a stable price structure. Despite periodic corrections, the sustained presence of SOPR above 1 indicates that selling pressure remains controlled. Related Reading: What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Bitcoin Right Now? Analyst Explains The analyst also pointed out that this behavior reflects market maturity, where long-term investors are not rushing to offload their holdings despite Bitcoin’s price appreciation. Regardless, Bitcoin has continued to consistently decrease in price since its sharp drop below $100,000 last week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at a price of $93,991 down by 1.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A quant has explained how Bitcoin may be expected to see a strong rise in the coming months based on a golden cross that has occurred in this indicator. Bitcoin SOPR Has Just Witnessed A Bullish Crossover As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post pointed out, the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has shown a golden crossover recently. The “SOPR” here refers to an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold/transferred to see what price it was moved at last time. If this price is less than the current spot price for any token, its sale contributes to profit realization. Related Reading: Dogecoin TD Sell Signal Goes Off, But Here’s Why Parabolic Bull Run Can Still Continue Similarly, transactions involving coins of the opposite type imply loss realization is occurring. The SOPR sums up these profits and losses for the entire sell supply, and determines their ratio. When the value of this indicator is greater than 1, it means the average holder could be assumed to be selling their coins at a net profit. On the other hand, being under the mark implies that the overall market is realizing more losses than profits. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin SOPR over the past decade: As is visible in the above graph, the 30-day MA of the Bitcoin SOPR fell under the 365-day earlier in the year, but recently, it has reversed its direction and has broken past the level. This increase naturally corresponds to the return of notable profit-taking in the sector following the latest rally of the cryptocurrency. In the chart, the quant highlighted the previous instances of this crossover. It would appear that each of these led into bullish price action for the asset. “After the golden cross appears, the market usually starts a strong rise within 2 months at the latest,” notes the analyst. Thus, it’s possible that Bitcoin could be gearing up for another run shortly. This latest bullish crossover in the Bitcoin SOPR is the second time this cycle that the pattern has appeared, so it’s possible that the run now would lead the asset to its final peak of the cycle. Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Sets New Record, Analyst Says Fireworks ‘Guaranteed’ It remains to be seen, though, whether the crossover between the monthly and yearly averages of the indicator would prove to be bullish for BTC or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $95,000, down almost 3% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
A quant has explained how Bitcoin could still have room to rise based on the trend forming in this popular on-chain indicator. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR May Not Be Overheated Yet In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of the Bitcoin short-term holders. The SOPR refers to […]
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have only been taking minimal profits recently despite the asset’s latest rally. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Is Currently At Relatively Low Levels As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the short-term holder SOPR is still under the range that has signaled overheated conditions for the asset during the past year. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) here refers to an indicator that tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors as a whole are selling their coins at a profit or loss. Related Reading: Ethereum Bullish Signal: Whales Withdraw $750 Million In ETH From Exchanges When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder on the network is transferring their coins at a net profit. On the other hand, it being under this mark implies loss-taking is dominant. In the context of the current discussion, the SOPR of a specific segment of the BTC userbase is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As the STHs are relatively young holders, they don’t carry much resilience, and thus, can be prone to panic selling whenever a major change occurs in the market, like a rally or crash. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the past year or so: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has been above the 1 level recently, suggesting that this group has been realizing a net amount of profit with their transactions. With the latest bullish push that BTC has seen beyond the $71,000 level, the metric has seen some uplift, as the STHs have ramped up their profit-taking. The indicator is now sitting at 1.017. It’s apparent from the chat, however, that this is not actually that high a value. According to the quant, the indicator has shown to be overheated whenever it has broken 1.03 during the recent phase of consolidation. The latest value has clearly been under this mark. As such, the rally could have more room to grow, before the profit-taking from the STHs becomes a threat. This is only assuming that the same 1.03 boundary would apply to the current market as well, since the STH SOPR had been able to visit much higher levels before Bitcoin had encountered a top in March of this year. Related Reading: “Time To Get Ready For Another Bull Run,” Bitcoin Analyst Says— Here’s Why The indicator could be to monitor in the coming days, as where it goes next could provide hints about where the cryptocurrency’s price might also be going. BTC Price Sitting at the $71,200 level, Bitcoin is now not far from surpassing the high witnessed back in June. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Here’s what the historical pattern of an on-chain indicator suggests regarding whether the time to accumulate Bitcoin is over or not. Bitcoin 150-Day MA aSOPR Currently Has A Value Of 1.01 As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the 150-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin aSOPR has a value of just 1.01 right now. The “Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio” (aSOPR) here refers to an indicator that basically tells us about whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. This metric works by going through the on-chain history of all tokens being sold/transferred to see what price they were transacted at prior to this. When this price for any coin is less than the current price at which they are now being sold, then that particular token’s sale could be assumed to be leading to profit realization. Related Reading: Analytics Firm Reveals Why Dogecoin & Apecoin Hit Tops Similarly, coins of the opposite type could be considered to be adding to the loss realization. The aSOPR combines such profits and losses being realized across the network, and calculates their ratio. The “adjusted” in this metric’s name comes from the fact that it filters out transactions of coins that were moved inside an hour of their last transaction. Transfers like these are generally of no consequence to the wider market, so it makes sense to take them out of the data. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 150-day MA of the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 150-day MA Bitcoin aSOPR has consistently remained above the 1 mark this year, which implies the investors as a whole have been realizing more profits than losses. Earlier in the year, the indicator had grown to a high of 1.04 as the investors had taken the profits of the rally. As the consolidation of the cryptocurrency has dragged on, though, the metric has declined, with its value now sitting at 1.01. In the chart, the quant has highlighted two zones that have historically been significant for the aSOPR. The first is the region under 0.98, where bottoms have historically occurred. At levels this low, the investors are participating in notable loss realization. Resolute hands pick up the coins from these capitulators, thus helping the price reach a point of turnaround. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profitability Index Hits 202%: Is This Enough For A Top? The other zone is the one above 1.08, where tops have formed in the past as a result of the aggressive profit-taking from the whales. So far, the current cycle hasn’t seen the Bitcoin aSOPR visit this territory. “Based on previous trends, accumulating Bitcoin until aSOPR reaches 1.04 could be a solid strategy for long-term gains,” says the analyst. “Timing the market by observing whale behavior may prove fruitful.” BTC Price Bitcoin had plunged to the $65,000 level yesterday, but the coin has already made recovery as its price is now floating around $67,100. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
According to the trend in an on-chain indicator, an analyst has explained how Bitcoin may still need to reach the top of the current bull cycle. Bitcoin aSOPR Hasn’t Yet Reached Levels Associated With Past Cycle Tops As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is yet to go as high as during the tops of the previous cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bears Crushed: $100M In Crypto Shorts See Flush As BTC Breaks $63,000 The “SOPR” refers to a popular on-chain indicator that basically tells us whether cryptocurrency investors are selling their tokens at a profit or loss right now. This metric works by going through the blockchain history of each coin sold to see what price it was transacted at before. If this previous price for any coin was less than the price it’s being sold now, then its sale is leading to profit realization. Similarly, coins of the opposite type would imply loss-taking. The SOPR calculates the ratio between such profits and losses being realized across the network to provide a net situation. When the indicator’s value is greater than 1, the investors are selling their coins at a net profit. On the other hand, values under this mark suggest the dominance of loss realization in the market. In the context of the current discussion, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest here, but rather a modified form called the “aSOPR.” This indicator adjusts the SOPR data to exclude transactions of coins made within an hour of their previous transfers (hence the “adjusted” in the front of the name). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin aSOPR over the past few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day EMA Bitcoin aSOPR had observed a rise alongside the rally earlier in the year. This implies that investors had ramped up their profit-taking as the coin’s price surged to a new all-time high (ATH). With the bearish momentum that BTC has been facing since then, though, the indicator has also seen a cooldown. At the peak of the profit realization spree, the indicator had crossed the 1.05 mark, but now it has come down to just 1.01. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Stalls As HODLers Apply Selling Pressure As the quant has highlighted in the chart, the bull run tops in 2017 and 2021 occurred as the indicator approached a value of 1.1. The recent high in the indicator has been significantly below this mark. The peak level seen in the recent rally was similar to the one witnessed during the peak of the April 2019 rally. This recovery surge from the previous cycle had only been a prelude to the real bull run that would come later, so BTC may also see something similar play out this time. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a rally of around 5% in the past 24 hours, taking its price back above the $63,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com