Bitcoin is attempting to extend its recovery after reclaiming the $90,000 level, a move that has brought cautious optimism back into the market following weeks of consolidation and selling pressure. While price action alone still falls short of confirming a renewed uptrend, on-chain data suggests that underlying market conditions may be stabilizing beneath the surface. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows According to top analyst Axel Adler, the On-Chain Pressure Oscillator is offering an important lens into current market dynamics. The indicator, which aggregates exchange netflows, short-term holder realized profit and loss, and long-term coin spending into a single percentile-based signal, is currently sitting around the 46 level. Historically, this zone has been associated with accumulation phases rather than distribution. What stands out in the current reading is the absence of aggressive sellers. Exchange inflows remain muted, indicating that investors are not rushing to move coins to trading venues. At the same time, older coins are largely dormant, suggesting that long-term holders are not capitulating despite recent volatility. Short-term holders remain under pressure, but their losses appear contained, limiting forced selling. Together, these factors point to a market that is deleveraged and relatively balanced, with sell-side pressure constrained more by a lack of supply than by surging demand. Short-Term Holder Stress Keeps Sell-Side Pressure Contained Adler adds that recent movements in the On-Chain Pressure Oscillator reinforce the idea that Bitcoin is still locked in a consolidation regime. While the daily readings of the oscillator have softened over the past few sessions, the smoothed trend remains broadly stable. Historically, similar configurations have tended to appear during pause phases, when the market digests prior moves before committing to a new direction. Importantly, this stability suggests that sell-side pressure from key cohorts remains muted, even as demand has yet to show a decisive expansion. The main risk to this structure would be a sustained breakdown in the smoothed oscillator below neutral levels. Such a move would indicate a shift away from accumulation toward distribution, signaling that sellers are regaining control. This dynamic is closely linked to Bitcoin’s position relative to the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price. With BTC trading below the average cost basis of holders who entered within the last five months, most short-term participants are currently underwater. This limits their ability to take profits and reduces immediate selling incentives. As a result, sell pressure remains constrained despite recent price weakness. However, this balance may change if Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 area. A return to breakeven for short-term holders could unlock supply and create resistance. A healthier signal would be price reclaiming the STH realized level while the oscillator strengthens, confirming renewed demand rather than mere absence of selling. Related Reading: Memecoin Strength Returns After Historic Market Decline: A Setup For A Comeback? Bitcoin Rebounds From December Lows but Faces Heavy Overhead Resistance Bitcoin is trading near the $94,000 area after rebounding sharply from the December lows around $82,000–$84,000. The chart shows a clear recovery leg following a steep corrective phase that unfolded after the October peak near $125,000. While the bounce has restored short-term momentum, the broader structure remains technically constrained. Price is currently reclaiming the short-term moving average, which has started to curl upward and act as dynamic support. This is a constructive development, suggesting that downside momentum has eased and buyers are regaining some control. However, Bitcoin remains below the mid- and long-term moving averages, which are still sloping downward. These levels, clustered between roughly $100,000 and $105,000, represent a significant overhead resistance zone that bulls must clear to reestablish a bullish trend. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Setup Advances: CEX Volume Hits Cycle Highs Despite Price Weakness Selling pressure peaked during the November–December breakdown, while the current rebound has occurred on more moderate volume, indicating stabilization rather than aggressive accumulation. Structurally, the market appears to be transitioning from a sharp sell-off into a consolidation and recovery phase. Holding above the $90,000–$92,000 region is critical to maintain this constructive setup. A failure to defend this zone would expose Bitcoin to renewed downside risk, while a sustained move above the declining moving averages would signal a more durable shift in market direction. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has retraced to the $85,000 level, a critical support zone that bulls must defend to prevent a deeper breakdown. After failing to reclaim higher levels, price action has slowed and volatility has compressed, reinforcing a market environment dominated by apathy and fear. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin’s Quiet Price Action May Be ‘Dangerous’ – IFP Signals Rising Structural Risk Sentiment across the crypto space has deteriorated sharply, with a growing number of analysts openly discussing the possibility of a prolonged bear market extending into next year. In this context, understanding who is actually selling becomes far more important than the price move itself. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s pullback from the ~$88.2K region toward ~$85K provides a clean on-chain read of market behavior beneath the surface. Exchange inflow data segmented by Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) shows that the decline was not driven by structural distribution from long-term investors. Historically, bear markets accelerate when long-term holders begin distributing supply. The absence of that behavior suggests the current drawdown reflects positioning adjustments and risk reduction rather than a collapse in long-term conviction. As Bitcoin tests $85K, the market is not only evaluating price support levels. Short-Term Profit-Taking, Not Structural Distribution The CryptoQuant report by Crazzyblockk provides a precise breakdown of who actually drove Bitcoin’s recent pullback. On December 15, when BTC traded near the $88.2K level, Short-Term Holders sent approximately 24.7K BTC to exchanges. Crucially, 86.8% of this supply was realized in profit, while only 13.2% was sold at a loss. In dollar terms, profitable STH inflows exceeded $1.89 billion, vastly outweighing loss-driven selling. This profile clearly indicates that sellers were primarily near-term buyers exiting from strength, rather than panicked participants capitulating under stress. As the price moved lower on December 16 toward the $86K area, total STH inflows dropped sharply to just 3.9K BTC. Although this smaller flow was realized at a loss, its limited size signals exhaustion rather than an acceleration of selling pressure. While the percentage of loss realization increased, the absolute volume did not—an important nuance often overlooked in surface-level market analysis. Long-Term Holder behavior reinforces this constructive interpretation. Across both days, LTH inflows remained muted, falling from roughly 326 BTC to just 50 BTC. There is no sign of capitulation or meaningful distribution from this cohort. Overall, the data shows a market cooling through short-term profit-taking, not breaking through structural sell pressure. Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? Bitcoin Weekly Price Structure and Key Support Dynamics Bitcoin has retraced sharply from its cycle highs and is now consolidating around the $85K–$88K zone. This area is technically significant. Price is currently interacting with the rising 100-week moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout the broader uptrend since 2023. So far, buyers are attempting to defend this level, preventing a deeper weekly close below it. Structurally, the market has shifted from strong impulsive expansion into a corrective phase. The loss of the 50-week moving average earlier in the pullback signaled a transition from momentum-driven price discovery to consolidation and mean reversion. However, the longer-term trend remains intact as long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average, currently well below the price. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test Volume has declined during the retracement, suggesting that selling pressure is not accelerating aggressively. This supports the view that the move is corrective rather than distributive. From a risk perspective, failure to hold the $85K region would open the door to a deeper retrace toward the low-$70K range. Conversely, reclaiming the $90K–$92K zone would be required to restore bullish structure and momentum on the weekly timeframe. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged nearly 4% in the past 24 hours amid the ongoing volatility. As the price retests the $85,000 resistance, some analysts suggest a jump to $90,000 could be around the corner. Related Reading: SUI Ready For 15% Move Amid Key Level Retest – Breakout Or Breakdown Ahead? Bitcoin Retests $85,000 Barrier On Wednesday, Bitcoin broke above the $85,000 resistance after surging over 5% from yesterday’s lows. The flagship crypto has been unable to reclaim the $85,000-$86,000 zone throughout the last 10 days, struggling to hold the $84,000 support during this period. Nonetheless, BTC climbed over the last 24 hours ahead of Today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As some market watchers pointed out, the expectations of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statement could “make or break” the recent reclaim of key support levels. Analyst CRG explained, “The rate change (or lack thereof) at FOMC is usually not important (unless surprise change) – as it’s baked in. It’s the forward guidance, tonality, etc., that’s important. New info surrounding the end of QT/dot plot revisions important to watch today.” The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, setting the upper bound at 4.50%. As Wu Blockchain reported, the decision was in line with the expected rate and unchanged from the previous one. Meanwhile, “The dot plot indicates an expected 50 basis point rate cut in 2025. Additionally, starting in April, the Fed will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction, lowering the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $25 billion to $5 billion while maintaining the cap for agency debt and MBS at $35 billion.” Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC’s price could “get quite interesting” with the FOMC volatility. The news could send the flagship crypto to reclaim the key $85,000 barrier or retrace to the range lows. According to the trader, Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap showed a “few big clusters on both sides” of the weekly range. As a result, the $80,000-$81,000 and $85,000-$86,000 price ranges are two key zones to watch amid the ongoing volatility. BTC Must Hold This Key Zone The Federal Reserve’s report propelled Bitcoin’s price to a 10-day high of $85,880, registering a 3.8% surge in the daily timeframe. Daan warned investors that the current $84,000-$85,000 range is a key level to overcome, as BTC has been “unable to break back above the Daily 200MA/EMA cluster.” Reclaiming this zone could send Bitcoin back to the $90,000 resistance and reclaim its post-election breakout price range. On the contrary, a rejection could see BTC hit new lows, risking a fall to the $73,500 mark. Analyst Rekt Capital noted a decline in seller volume over the last few days, which has allowed buyers “to step in.” According to the analyst, “Buyers need to showcase above-average volume for there to be more conviction in this move.” Related Reading: BNB Ready To Breakout? New ATH Coming ‘In No Time’ If This Resistance Breaks Additionally, he highlighted that Bitcoin’s Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned into a resistance level as it has been in a downtrend since November 2024. To him, this level is worth watching in the future since “an RSI Downtrend break would likely precede a trend reversal to the upside in price.” As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $85,132, a 4.9% increase in the past week. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
The market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has revealed how the largest of Bitcoin holders have been the ones applying selling pressure amid the price decline. Bitcoin Mega Whales Have Been Reducing Their Supply Recently In a new post on X, IntoTheBlock has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin supply held by the whales. The ‘whales‘ broadly refer to the entities who own more than 1,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Headed For $72,000? These Metrics Could Hint So At the current exchange rate, this amount converts to a whopping $88.9 million, so the only investors who would qualify for the cohort would be the big-money ones. In the context of the current topic, the holders of focus aren’t just any ordinary whales, but in fact the largest among them: those carrying more than 10,000 BTC ($889 million) in their balance. This group may be termed as the ‘mega whales.’ Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the holdings of the Bitcoin mega whales over the past week: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin mega whales sold some of their supply during the price crash. More interesting, though, is the detail that these investors already began their selloff a few days back, a potential indication that they saw the price plunge coming. According to IntoTheBlock, this cohort was the primary seller in this window. In fact, the analytics firm has pointed out that the rest of the groups have shown combined accumulation at the same time, meaning the smaller entities are looking at the plummet as an opportunity to buy. In total, the mega whales have sold 25,740 BTC (almost $2.3 billion) over the last seven days. The behavior of the cohort could now be to keep an eye on in the coming days, as with the rest of the market buying, what these humongous investors do could tip the balance one way or the other for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Loss Holders Highest Since October As BTC Crashes To $87,000 Holder balance is just one way to classify BTC cohorts. Another is through exchanges, as different platforms can host a different demographic of investors. Two exchanges in particular are generally of relevance in this type of analysis: Coinbase and Binance. Coinbase is mainly used by entities from the US, especially large institutional traders, while Binance serves global investors. An indicator that can be used for tracking the difference in behavior between the two user bases is the Coinbase Premium Index. This metric measures the percentage difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). As CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out in an X post, the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative recently. This trend, alongside the fact that Coinbase’s spot volume dominance has shot up recently (left chart), would suggest the American whales have been the main drivers during the crash. BTC Price Bitcoin approached the $86,000 mark during yesterday’s dip, but the coin has since seen a rebound as its price is now trading around $88,700. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin investors’ profit-taking has observed a huge decline since last month’s top, a sign that could be positive for BTC. Bitcoin Realized Profit To Exchanges Now Down To $277 Million Per Day According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, trader profit-taking in the Bitcoin market has cooled off significantly […]