Monday’s Bitcoin (BTC) rebound—pushing back above the $63,00 area—has revived a major question: was last Friday’s drop to $59,000 the bottom for BTC? Seeking to answer that, market analyst Ali Martinez released a new technical note on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin appears poised to reach a market bottom while a “major macro accumulation cycle” begins to form. Why The Sell-off Could Signal A Bottom In Martinez’s view, BTC’s decline to its lowest level since 2024 served as an important cleansing function for the market—effectively shaking out “overleveraged premiums” across the board. That type of flush, Martinez argues, is often what makes bottoms possible: it removes leverage stress and forces late and speculative positions to unwind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Needs This To Happen, Glassnode Analyst Reveals A central part of his explanation is the role of long-term holders. Martinez claims that long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion worth of spot Bitcoin during the downswing. He says this distributed supply temporarily raised exchange reserves, which can translate into increased potential selling pressure as coins move closer to trading venues. Supporting that point, Martinez also cites data indicating that over 54,000 BTC have moved onto trading platforms over the past two weeks, which he frames as a further contributor to the selling dynamic. Next Bitcoin Targets Even with Monday’s recovery, Martinez emphasizes what happened at the downside. He points out that following the move down to $59,000, more than 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss. In his technical framework, that’s a key threshold to watch. Martinez notes that historically, when the “supply-in-loss” metric crosses the extreme 10 million BTC level, it has helped time macro bottoms with notable accuracy. From there, Martinez turns to the MVRV Pricing Bands, which he describes as offering “geometric targets” for where Bitcoin accumulation windows tend to mature. Related Reading: Dogecoin Will ‘Pump Hard’ After This Happens, Analyst Clocks Generational Entry According to his post, the most reliable accumulation periods historically occur when Bitcoin settles within the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV bands. Martinez says those bands align with two specific target areas: approximately $53,900 and $43,150. In other words, if the bottom is indeed approaching or forming now, he suggests the market may gravitate toward those zones as the next stages in a broader consolidation-and-accumulation process. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has defended her bull case for Bitcoin reaching $1.25 million within five years, arguing that institutional allocation, digital-gold substitution and Bitcoin’s hard-coded scarcity remain the central pillars of the forecast. Speaking on Fox Business In Depth: The Crypto Campaign on May 26, Wood said ARK’s $1.25 million projection represents the firm’s bull case rather than its base case. The base case, she said, is “closer to $750,000.” But she framed the more aggressive target as a product of several overlapping shifts: younger investors treating Bitcoin as a digital store of value, emerging-market users seeking protection from monetary instability, and asset allocators beginning to treat crypto as a distinct investment category. “The biggest reason is institutional adoption,” Wood said. “This is a new asset class. It has very low correlation to other asset classes in terms of risks and returns. And so every asset allocator has a responsibility to examine it because it will increase risk-adjusted returns over time.” Why Bitcoin Could Hit $1.25 Million Within Five Years That allocation argument has long sat at the center of ARK’s Bitcoin thesis. In Wood’s framing, Bitcoin’s role is not limited to speculative upside. She described it as a potential substitute for gold as generational wealth changes hands, with younger investors more likely to adopt “a digital store of value.” She also called Bitcoin “an insurance policy,” especially in emerging markets facing what she described as “fiscal and monetary neglect at best or corruption at worst.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Worst Outflow Week Of The Year Just Happened — And The Timing Is Alarming Wood also tied Bitcoin’s potential growth to the expanding stablecoin market, though not in the way some crypto maximalists might expect. Rather than predicting an immediate displacement of the dollar, she argued that stablecoins could strengthen dollar distribution globally because major dollar-backed tokens are largely supported by US Treasuries. “Because of stablecoins, the dollar will also be strong,” Wood said. “So effectively stablecoins, so USDC, Circle’s stablecoin, and USDT, Tether’s stablecoin, they are backed primarily by US Treasuries. So to the extent they become successful around the world, we’re going to be effectively exporting dollars. And that should be dollar positive.” At the same time, Wood said she sees an asset-allocation shift beginning toward Bitcoin and other crypto assets, again citing their low correlation with traditional markets. Regulation was another major part of the discussion. Wood said the GENIUS Act and, potentially, the CLARITY Act could establish a framework that allows institutions to enter the crypto market more aggressively. She noted that the administration wants CLARITY completed by July 4, though she said she was unsure whether that timeline would be met. “I think once we do, because the odds have gone up recently that it will be passed, that we will see much more of an institutional swoosh into the space,” Wood said. The ARK founder also leaned into Bitcoin’s supply mechanics as a contrast with gold. She noted that roughly 20 million Bitcoin have already been mined out of the 21 million supply cap, leaving only about 1 million more to be issued. Gold supply, by comparison, rises at roughly 1% per year, she said, and could increase further in response to recent price gains. “Bitcoin is mathematically metered,” Wood said. “There will be no supply response. It’s just mathematically metered. And right now it’s increasing at 0.9% roughly per year, which is lower than gold’s long term. And in the next two years we’ll be down to 0.45% increase per year.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Fall To $40,000 If Saylor’s Bid Stalls, Ran Neuner Warns Wood acknowledged the debate over Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold during periods of macro stress, when gold has at times rallied while Bitcoin sold off. But she argued that the relationship between the two assets remains weak over longer periods, citing a correlation of 0.14 since 2019, when institutions began considering Bitcoin more seriously as an asset class. She also said gold has tended to lead Bitcoin in recent cycles, and argued that the two may now be changing places as Bitcoin builds momentum while gold weakens. In her view, a stronger dollar could become a mild headwind for gold, while Bitcoin’s institutional adoption story continues to develop separately. At press time, BTC traded at $75,034. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
China’s securities regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, announced on May 25 that it will penalize three major offshore brokerages for their ties to crypto — Tiger Brokers, Futu Securities, and Longbridge Securities — for illegal cross-border financial operations targeting mainland investors, as part of a sweeping nine-agency implementation plan that sets a two-year deadline to eliminate all unauthorized cross-border securities, futures, and fund management activity from China’s financial landscape. Related Reading: Bankless Co-Founder Explains Why He Sold All His Ethereum The announcement, made public via the State Council Information Office and covered by China’s official Xinhua News Agency, represents the most coordinated regulatory enforcement action Beijing has taken against offshore financial platforms since the 2021 crypto mining ban. The CSRC stated it will confiscate all illegal gains from domestic and overseas entities associated with Tiger, Futu, and Longbridge, and impose severe penalties in accordance with Chinese law, per the official Xinhua report. Under the implementation plan, the three brokerages have been given a two-year phase-out window — during which they are strictly prohibited from facilitating new buy orders or accepting capital inflows from mainland investors. Only sell orders and capital withdrawals will be permitted. Upon expiration, affected institutions must completely shut down their mainland-targeted websites, trading applications, and supporting servers, per the SCIO announcement. BTC's price trends to the upside since March 2026 as seen on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Why This Matters For Crypto The enforcement action is not nominally directed at crypto — it targets offshore securities and futures brokerages. The crypto implications, however, are structural and direct. The primary channels through which Chinese traders access crypto markets — over-the-counter desks, peer-to-peer exchanges, and USDT on-ramps — operate in the same regulatory gray zone that Beijing has now formally committed to eliminating across all cross-border financial activity, per analysis by BeInCrypto published May 22. The February 2026 crackdown, in which the People’s Bank of China and seven other agencies jointly expanded China’s existing crypto ban to explicitly cover stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and offshore yuan-pegged stablecoin issuance, established the policy framework. The May 25 action represents its enforcement arm — a signal that the two-year rectification timeline applies broadly to any unauthorized cross-border financial channel, not only to licensed brokerages, per the CSRC’s implementation plan language as reported by Xinhua. Market reaction was swift. US-listed shares of Tiger Brokers’ parent company fell more than 10% in premarket trading. Futu Holdings dropped more than 5%, with some session reports showing declines reaching 35%, per Wu Blockchain’s coverage of the announcement on May 22. The Broader Pattern Beijing’s 2026 enforcement posture reflects a deliberate sequencing: the February policy notice established the expanded legal perimeter covering stablecoins and tokenization; the May brokerage action demonstrates the state’s willingness to impose material financial penalties on large, publicly listed companies operating in breach of that perimeter. For the nascent sector’s participants who have continued to access crypto through informal Chinese channels, the trajectory of enforcement points in one direction — and the two-year rectification deadline gives Beijing a concrete timeline against which to measure compliance. Related Reading: Will XRP Price Ever Reach $200? Top Expert Discloses What Must Happen First This development marks a critical juncture for crypto’s relationship with Chinese capital. Whether the crackdown accelerates OTC crypto demand as mainland investors seek alternative stores of value — as has historically occurred during prior Chinese enforcement waves — or succeeds in materially reducing cross-border digital asset flows, will determine whether Beijing’s tightening ultimately strengthens or simply redirects China’s crypto participation. Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD on Tradingview
Bitcoin is trading just above the $81,000 level as the market waits to see whether the next move will push higher or pull back. Against that backdrop, Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, reiterated his bullish view on the leading cryptocurrency. In a Wednesday interview with CNBC, Siegel again pointed to a dramatic upside scenario, saying he expects Bitcoin to potentially reach $1,000,000 within the next five years. Why Bitcoin May Persist Siegel compared Bitcoin’s staying power to a familiar arc from the tech world. “It’s going to be like the video game industry.” In the same spirit, Siegel argued that investors do not simply abandon Bitcoin and move on. “People don’t quit; they also don’t quit Bitcoin.” He added that the market is also being shaped by a larger structural shift, noting that the first central bank has begun buying Bitcoin for its reserves, which he called a “mega trend,” even if it will be “very volatile along the way.” Related Reading: Ripple CEO Warns: If CLARITY Act Markup Slips, Chances Fall ‘Precipitously’ Siegel also pointed to specific market conditions that he believes are helping support the current momentum. One factor is Bitcoin’s relationship with broader risk assets—particularly technology stocks. He said Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has risen to a five-year high, helping explain why recent gains have appeared alongside a wider macro move. In other words, rather than Bitcoin moving in isolation, it has been trading more like a high-beta asset tied to technology-heavy indices. Another part of his argument focuses on the derivatives market. Siegel said he sees an absence of froth in derivatives, which he interprets as a sign that the rally is being driven more by short covering than by speculative overexuberance. Near $3 Million By 2050? VanEck’s research head has also made an even longer-term projection earlier this year, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to as much as $2.9 million per coin by 2050. That estimate, Siegel implied, is tied to a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s potential role across two major markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. Related Reading: Strategy Reports Q1 Results: Over $12 Billion In Red Ink—Here Are The Key Figures Looking ahead to 2050, he predicted that Bitcoin would settle between 5% and 10% of global international trade, while also accounting for 5% of domestic trade transactions. Siegel further explained that, under a scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the model could produce an extremely high implied value—he said it could rise to $53.4 million per coin. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a response to “wartime inflation,” not just the artificial intelligence cycle. Hayes framed the recent shift around a simple premise: governments are openly preparing to spend more on defense, and that spending ultimately has to be financed. In his view, that puts Bitcoin back in familiar territory as a liquidity-sensitive asset with a hard-money narrative. “Since the war has started, Bitcoin has outperformed,” Hayes said. “It outperformed NASDAQ and outperformed the SaaS stocks. And basically, I think that Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Turns Neutral For First Time Since January The core of Hayes’ argument was not that the Fed will suddenly return to explicit quantitative easing. Instead, he focused on what he described as a likely balance-sheet reshuffling between the Fed and the commercial banking system, one that could allow officials to claim the Fed is shrinking while leaving the broader dollar liquidity picture largely intact. Bitcoin Vs. The Hawkish Fed Narrative Hayes addressed market concerns around Kevin Warsh, whom he said investors have viewed as a potentially hawkish Fed chair because of his criticism of the central bank’s large balance sheet. Hayes said those fears miss the practical constraints facing monetary officials when the US government is still issuing massive amounts of debt. “If the market believes that there’s going to be less dollar liquidity floating around the system because of what Warsh will do with the Fed, then they’ll be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets,” Hayes said. “This is what we’ve seen in the media talking about sort of this hawkish Fed that’s going to come into place after May when Warsh takes over. Now, I don’t believe that’s the case.” According to Hayes, Warsh would be constrained by the Treasury’s need to keep the bond market functioning. He argued that the Fed cannot pursue balance-sheet reduction in a vacuum when the US government must continue funding large deficits. “At the end of the day, when you’ve issued $38 trillion of debt and you need to fund the government, the Federal Reserve will do what it’s asked to do, which is make sure the market is orderly so that people can buy this debt,” Hayes said. The Bank Balance Sheet Trade Hayes’ central mechanism is a swap: commercial banks reduce their holdings of Fed reserves and replace them with Treasuries and repos. In that scenario, the Fed’s balance sheet can become smaller on paper, while the banking system absorbs more government debt. “The point of all this is that the net effect on dollar liquidity is neutral,” Hayes said. “There’s nothing being sold, there’s nothing being bought. It’s just a swap. It’s purely regulatory fiction in terms of who is allowed to hold what.” That distinction matters for Bitcoin because Hayes says investors should care less about the stated size of the Fed’s balance sheet and more about whether the overall system is creating or destroying dollar liquidity. If debt simply migrates from the Fed to regulated bank balance sheets, the impact may be far less restrictive than markets fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit New All-Time High Fast On Quantum Fix, Capriole Founder Says Hayes linked that transition to US banking deregulation and specifically cited changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which he said went live on April 1. In his telling, the rule change allows large banks such as JPMorgan and Citibank to absorb more Treasuries and repos, while smaller banks can expand construction and industrial lending. He also cited an S&P Global estimate that the ESLR balance-sheet reduction could generate $1.3 trillion of new loans. Wartime Spending Becomes The Demand Engine Hayes argued that the demand side of the lending cycle is already visible. Defense spending, critical resource production and AI infrastructure are all becoming national-security priorities, he said, creating borrowers with government-backed demand and therefore more attractive credit profiles for banks. “Why will banks have demand for loans? One of the criticisms about this analysis from some of my other macro-fans is that they claim the banking system is not creating enough loans or there’s not enough demand,” Hayes said. “Well, we have a great source of demand that is the US Department of War.” He said banks would lend to defense suppliers, resource miners and hyperscalers as AI capital expenditure becomes part of the national-security framework. Hayes described bank lending as especially important because, in his view, it carries a higher multiplier than central bank lending, estimating that around $4 trillion in credit could ultimately be created. That is the basis for his renewed bullishness. Hayes said his liquidity chart bottomed in November of last year, roughly around the same time as Bitcoin, and argued that after a period of war-driven uncertainty, the market may now be ready to move higher. “I think we’ve had a bit of a chop. We’ve had a bit of a war. Now it’s time to break out,” Hayes said. “And that’s why I believe Bitcoin is going higher. I think my end of year choice target is like $125,000, whatever, it doesn’t fucking matter, I’m wrong anyways.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,628. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Joe Burnett, VP of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), is arguing that bitcoin could reach $11 million by the first quarter of 2036, not because it replaces the financial system, but because it becomes the dominant long-duration savings asset in an economy reshaped by AI-led deflation and repeated monetary expansion. His thesis, laid out in a March 2 Substack note, frames bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as the asset most likely to absorb excess liquidity in a world of falling production costs and chronic policy intervention. Burnett’s base case implies a bitcoin network value of roughly $230 trillion by 2036. He sets that against a global financial asset base that he estimates could grow from more than $1 quadrillion today to about $1.97 quadrillion over the next decade, assuming 7% annual compounding. In that framework, bitcoin would account for around 12% of global financial assets. “That outcome reflects a measured repricing of global wealth toward the only monetary asset with absolute scarcity,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin does not need to replace all currencies. It does not need universal daily transactional use. It only needs to become the primary long-duration savings asset in a world defined by monetary expansion and technology deflation.” The Bitcoin 2036 AI-Deflation Thesis At the center of the argument is what Burnett calls the “AI deflation engine.” His view is that artificial intelligence will compress labor costs, speed up output and intensify competition across both digital and physical industries, creating sustained downward pressure on prices. He compares the shift to the automobile’s displacement of horses, but argues that this time the target is white-collar labor. AI, he wrote, is already drafting contracts, analyzing financials, writing code and handling research once performed by junior professionals, while robotics continue pushing into logistics, manufacturing and agriculture. Related Reading: Bitcoin Prints Fifth Straight Red Month; Previous Streak Was Followed By 300% Surge In a neutral monetary system, he argues, that kind of productivity boom would simply raise real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiat system, it becomes destabilizing. Falling wages, weaker asset prices and fixed nominal liabilities do not mix well. “As AI drives real-economy deflation, central banks and fiscal authorities expand liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI becomes at reducing costs, the more aggressive the monetary response becomes to prevent debt deflation.” That policy reflex is the bridge to bitcoin. Burnett argues that every deflationary shock begins with a move into cash and sovereign bonds, but that phase tends to give way to rate cuts, balance-sheet expansion, credit support and fiscal transfers. He points to earlier episodes in 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as evidence that policymakers do not tolerate sustained deflation. In his telling, the long-run result is persistent productivity deflation paired with persistent monetary expansion, a mix that leaves capital searching for an asset whose supply cannot be politically expanded. From there, Burnett widens the lens. Equities, in his view, are increasingly exposed to AI-driven creative destruction. Real estate retains scarcity value, but technology could accelerate design, permitting and construction, limiting long-run upside. Sovereign bonds, meanwhile, offer nominal stability while remaining tied to currencies subject to ongoing dilution. Bitcoin, he argues, sits in a different category because its supply cap, divisibility, portability and verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorb global liquidity over time. He also ties that thesis to a newer market structure he calls “Digital Credit” — income-generating securities backed by large bitcoin balance sheets. Burnett cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA as examples of vehicles that offer dollar income to credit investors while channeling capital into additional bitcoin accumulation. That, he argues, could create a reflexive loop between global yield demand and bitcoin buying. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says The note leans heavily on scarcity math. Burnett writes that by 2036, fewer than 41,000 new BTC will be issued over the entire year. If global financial assets reach roughly $2 quadrillion and only 1% of one year’s incremental capital formation seeks monetary preservation in bitcoin, that would still amount to $1.4 trillion competing for that limited new supply — or roughly $34 million of demand per newly issued coin. “The path will not be smooth, but the conclusion will become increasingly obvious,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin’s trajectory toward eight-figure price levels reflects structural monetary conditions rather than speculative enthusiasm and ‘belief.’ As liquidity continues expanding within a technologically deflationary world, capital will concentrate into assets capable of preserving value across time.” His closing point is less about straight-line appreciation than timing. Markets, he argues, still price bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. The next decade, in his view, will increasingly price it as monetary infrastructure. Whether that transition plays out anywhere near his $11 million target, Burnett’s thesis is clear: if AI keeps driving abundance and policymakers keep offsetting it with liquidity, bitcoin may be where a growing share of global capital ends up. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,958. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
JPMorgan is sticking with its long-run bitcoin upside framework, including a $266,000 per-coin target, even as the bank flags near-term stress signals around mining economics and still-chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026. The bank’s latest read hinges on two pillars: a “soft” floor around bitcoin’s production cost, and a valuation model that maps bitcoin’s potential market cap against private-sector gold investment on a volatility-adjusted basis. In the near term, JPMorgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to produce a bitcoin at roughly $77,000, while bitcoin was trading around the mid-$60,000s in the same analysis window, putting spot below breakeven for less efficient operators. JP Morgan Remains Bullish On Bitcoin Historically, JPMorgan argues, production cost tends to behave like “soft” support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflexive: if prices stay below profitability for long enough, weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower, and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above spot. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital (not retail or corporate treasuries) is the marginal buyer that can restart flows when the macro backdrop stabilizes. As JPMorgan put it: “We are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets, driven by institutional investors.” JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 “call,” but as the mathematical end point of a gold-parity thought experiment. In the bank’s model, matching the scale of private gold investment (roughly $8 trillion, excluding central banks) implies a bitcoin price around $266,000, a level the analysts themselves described as “unrealistic” in the near term. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming The bridge between “unrealistic now” and “possible later,” in JPMorgan’s framing, is volatility. The bank has pointed to a bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards and argues that gold’s surge since October alongside rising gold volatility has improved bitcoin’s relative appeal over the long run. “The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote. JPMorgan’s stance effectively splits the tape into two timeframes: a messy adjustment process if bitcoin remains below mining breakevens, and a longer-duration bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the asset’s role versus gold as 2026 unfolds. At press time, BTC traded at $66,229. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050. The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy. Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions. The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability. Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case. ‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’ In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR. Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide. Related Reading: GENIUS Act Key Provisions In Spotlight: XRP Attorney Deaton Alerts To Bankers’ Role For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR. In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has experienced a significant correction after reaching all-time highs above $126,000 in October, currently trading just above $87,900. This marks a notable 30% decline over the past few months. Despite this setback, analysts at Citi express optimism for the cryptocurrency’s future, forecasting that its value will continue to rise through 2026. Optimistic Bitcoin Price Predictions According to Citi’s analysts, the base case for the Bitcoin price is set at $143,000, reflecting a potential 62% increase from current levels. In a more bullish scenario, the cryptocurrency could surge to over $189,000, indicating a substantial 114% increase. Conversely, the analysts also present a bear case for the leading crypto, with an estimated price around $78,500, which would represent an additional 10.6% decline from current trading levels. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Support Shattered, Potential $100 Test Looms, Says Analyst The forecast from Citi relies on the assumption that investor adoption will persist, particularly with an influx of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) projected to reach $15 billion. This influx is seen as a catalyst that could significantly boost the Bitcoin price. Furthermore, ongoing negotiations in the US Senate regarding their version of the crypto market structure bill, namely the CLARITY Act, which aims to regulate Bitcoin under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is anticipated to enhance market adoption. In contrast to Bitcoin, analysts express concerns regarding Ethereum’s (ETH) potential for growth. They argue that Ethereum, being viewed more as “programmable money,” has seen decreased activity, which has resulted in its current trading price of just below $3,000—40% below its all-time high of $4,964. Additional Catalyst For Price Growth Chris Neiger, an analyst at The Motley Fool, also attaches bullish predictions to the Bitcoin price future, highlighting that recent US job data reflects an unemployment rate increase to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. He asserted that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) chose to lower interest rates by 2026, the Bitcoin price could benefit since lower rates typically enhance the cryptocurrency’s value by making borrowing more affordable. In November, JPMorgan provided a more conservative estimate, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 by 2026, with potential upside expected over the next six to twelve months. Related Reading: Crypto Payments Firm MoonPay Set For $5 Billion Valuation With NYSE Owner’s Backing Meanwhile, even more aggressive predictions from market researcher Fundstrat forecast the Bitcoin price could soar between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026, largely driven by the mainstream adoption of ETFs. Additionally, the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the federal government has encouraged states to consider similar initiatives. Neiger concludes that just as ETFs have contributed to the credibility of cryptocurrencies and facilitated price increases, the formation of state-level Bitcoin reserves could serve as another critical driver propelling Bitcoin’s value higher in 2026. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel posted a bitcoin “oversold RSI” roadmap on X, arguing the market has tracked it closely and tying the setup to a broader view that the cycle could run into 2026—an outlook he says would render the traditional “four-year cycle” framework obsolete. “A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittel wrote, sharing a chart of bitcoin’s average price path after RSI falls below 30, with the RSI breach marked as t=0. “This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.” Can Bitcoin Skyrocket To $180,000 In Just 90 Days? Bittel said the overlay has matched the current tape. “So far, it’s been pretty bang on,” he wrote. The “average market path” line rises sharply over the weeks that follow. The chart shows a steep rally within 90 days after t=0, with the BTC price potentially surging near the $180,000 area. Related Reading: From Cycles To Continuity: Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Pattern May Be Breaking Still, Bittel emphasized the chart is not meant to be a precision forecast. “No, it won’t be perfect,” he wrote, adding that “assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.” He also warned that the rebound process can be uneven: “bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.” He reiterated the conditional nature of the framework in blunt terms. “If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along…” The bigger point, Bittel said, is that the familiar cycle narrative should not be taken for granted. “Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time,” he wrote. “As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.” In that scenario, he added, “the 4-year cycle is dead.” Bittel also challenged the common assumption that bitcoin’s rhythm is fundamentally “about the halving.” “Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle,” he wrote, adding that post-COVID that dynamic “was pushed out by one year.” He now argues the cycle is “officially broken” because “the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.” He framed the macro backdrop in terms of debt-service pressure and liquidity response. “The bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth,” Bittel wrote. Reactions across crypto X ranged from enthusiastic to skeptical. The ₿itcoin Therapist replied: “$180,000 BTC in 90 days.” Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ Panic Returns: History Says It’s A Late Signal LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) said the chart “lines up with our thinking,” tying the narrative to what it called the Fed’s “not QE QE” dynamics and “liquidity games” between the Treasury and the central bank. The account still anticipated turbulence into year-end—“noise and chop into year end (which is negative liquidity)”—before “these fundamental drivers start to see BTC reconnect with the bull trend,” adding that “sentiment appears sufficiently bad for a BTC move higher to be the most hated trade to start 2026!” Others struck a more sardonic tone. “precision-grade hopium here,” wrote doug funnie (@cryptoklotz), while still sketching a conditional path forward: Still think as long as BTC survives (ie doesn’t close in the $70k’s and starts grinding down or accepting there), there’s a plausible path to new highs on the earlier side in 2026. Just need to survive the ‘transition zone’ of 4 year deterministic selloors exhausting, and then ending up in an awkward spot as the music keeps playing.” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards was more critical of the statistical grounding, urging a broader test set: “Now re run this with 100 occurrences, not 5 during up only.” For traders, Bittel’s post effectively combines a tactical signal with a regime call: the RSI sub-30 template may map the rebound path, but only “assuming the bull market isn’t already over,” and only in a world where, as he put it, “the balance of probabilities” favors a cycle that “extends well into 2026.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,330. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to regain momentum in the market, failing to surpass its nearest resistance level of $94,000 for over a month. The cryptocurrency is currently trading within a broad range between $85,000 and $93,000, leading to growing concerns about further price corrections in the upcoming months. Amid this uncertainty, market expert NoLimit recently expressed on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he anticipates Bitcoin could bottom out at around $40,000 sometime in 2026. This forecast implies a significant 54% decline from current levels, which are just above $87,860. A Historical Perspective On Market Cycles NoLimit’s analysis outlines several reasons for this predicted downturn. He points out that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to surprise investors, often when confidence in the market is high. While each price cycle may appear unique on the surface, NoLimit argues that the underlying mechanics remain largely unchanged. He emphasizes the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, noting that it moves within a four-year cycle influenced by liquidity, leverage, and human behavior rather than mere sentiment. According to him, the market is currently late in this cycle, and Bitcoin has consistently followed a three-step process during past upward movements. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecast: Key Factors That Could Propel It To $3 In Early 2026 First, Bitcoin tends to surge in price following the Halving event. This is typically followed by an influx of maximum leverage and late-stage buyers. Finally, the cycle concludes with a sharp and often chaotic reset before the next significant price expansion occurs. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced steep declines during these resets, such as an approximate 85% drop in 2013-2014, an 84% drop in 2017-2018, and a 77% drop during the 2021-2022 cycle. In each scenario, investors were convinced that the conditions were different, yet the outcomes remained consistent. $40,000 As Foundation For Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Considering the current market situation, NoLimit highlights several critical indicators. He notes that Bitcoin has already seen substantial price appreciation, with institutional interest and exchange-trade fund (ETF) approvals now part of the landscape. He also observes that many traders are over-leveraged, market volatility is compressed, and there exists widespread hope for further price increases. These factors often signal a heightened risk of downside movement in the market. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Suffer A 20% Decline After Japan’s Rate Hike? Historical Patterns Suggest So A potential drop toward the $40,000 range should not be viewed as an unforeseen disaster, according to NoLimit. He argues that significant price declines have historically preceded major upward movements. Additionally, this price target aligns well with several technical indicators, including previous resistance levels that have turned into support, long-term moving averages, and the liquidity gap created by ETF approvals. Such factors suggest that a move toward this region could exhaust forced sellers and provide a solid foundation for recovery. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its famously bullish Bitcoin roadmap, cutting its 2026 price target in half and acknowledging that its previous near-term projections were too aggressive, even as it keeps an ultra-optimistic long-term view intact. Standard Chartered Downgrades Bitcoin Price Predictions In a note shared on X by VanEck head of research Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered argues that Bitcoin’s traditional halving cycle has been overtaken by ETF-driven flows. The bank writes: “With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) – i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter – is no longer valid, in our view.” The report adds that it will “take a break of the current all-time high ($ 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026.” Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal Alongside that shift in framework, the bank re-profiled its multi-year Bitcoin targets. According to the figures shared by Sigel, Standard Chartered has lowered its 2025 forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, its 2026 target from $300,000 to $150,000, its 2027 projection from $400,000 to $225,000, its 2028 estimate from $500,000 to $300,000, and its 2029 prediction from $500,000 to $400,000 while keeping a $500,000 target for 2030. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, characterises the recent drawdown as painful but not structural. He describes the current phase as “a cold breeze,” explicitly rejecting the notion of a new crypto winter and noting that the magnitude of the pullback remains consistent with corrections seen in past bull cycles. At the same time, he points out that weaker valuations for listed Bitcoin treasury companies have curtailed their ability to act as major marginal buyers, leaving spot ETFs as the primary driver of near-term gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $50 Million By 2041, Says EMJ Capital CEO Wall Street Giant Bernstein Agrees The downgrade also lands in the context of a broader rethink on Wall Street. One day earlier, on December 8, Sigel shared a separate note from Bernstein that reached a similar conclusion about Bitcoin’s market structure. Bernstein wrote that “the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.” Despite an approximately 30% correction, the firm notes that “we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs.” On that basis, Bernstein now moves its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, sees the cycle “potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000,” and keeps its long-term 2033 target at roughly $1,000,000 per BTC. Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein are converging on the same structural message: the halving alone no longer explains Bitcoin’s trajectory. ETF flows, institutional positioning and balance-sheet dynamics are now the core variables, even if their precise price targets and timelines diverge. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,686. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing one of the most challenging periods of the year, with prices retracting nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached last month. This decline has raised concerns about a potential bear market, fueling fears within the cryptocurrency community and among BTC investors. Despite this, a new AI-driven simulation by Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson offers a more tempered outlook. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Peterson indicated that while the situation remains complicated, the simulation suggests that the bottom might have already been reached or could occur within the week. Bitcoin Predicted To Experience Slow Recovery In his analysis, Peterson predicts a slow recovery for the Bitcoin price leading up to the year’s end, though he projects less than a 50% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark by December 31. Related Reading: CEO Reveals Ripple’s XRP Is Driving A JPMorgan Competitor, Is SWIFT Next? The model presented suggests a nuanced scenario where there is at least a 15% chance that Bitcoin could close lower at approximately $84,500 and an 85% chance of finishing higher. However, it is crucial to note that these estimates are based on seasonal averages and do not account for anticipated changes in the broader economic situation, to which BTC has shown vulnerability throughout the year. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pattern where significant price movements are often followed by periods of consolidation. If this trend holds, Bitcoin may stabilize within a new range between $84,000 and $90,000, with the $80,000 level serving as a crucial support point for short-term price action. Fed’s December Rate Path According to recent reports, one factor contributing to Bitcoin’s current struggles is the sentiment among investors, particularly those who purchased when prices hovered around $90,000. Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? With the cryptocurrency now trading below this threshold, approximately at $88,900 when writing, many investors may be hesitant to buy in again, especially if they are facing margin calls due to borrowed funds. The upcoming days could prove pivotal for the broader cryptocurrency market as delayed economic data is set to be released ahead of Thanksgiving. Barron’s reports that if the data strengthens the narrative for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in December, it could provide a boost to Bitcoin and its peers. Conversely, if the Fed opts to maintain interest rates, it might trigger further sell-offs in the crypto sector. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, emphasizes the importance of the $80,000 technical support level for Bitcoin. She stated that a breach below this level could further embolden bearish sentiments, adding additional downward pressure on prices. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, used a Yahoo Finance appearance to restate Bitwise’s view that Bitcoin is headed to $200,000 in 2026, while simultaneously characterizing the current sell-off as a maturing-market shakeout rather than a trend break. Is The Bottom In For Bitcoin? He opened with a near-term assessment that “we’re closer to the bottom here today than we have been for the past few weeks,” linking the drawdown to sharply risk-off conditions and to ETF-era flow dynamics. In his framing, Bitcoin “really was a leader of this risk-off move starting in mid-October,” and he expects it to “be a leader to the upside once things start to turn around,” adding that the market feels nearer to that inflection than it did “a week or two weeks ago.” When asked whether spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a double-edged sword, Rasmussen agreed, describing a market that now has deeper liquidity but more cross-currents. “Bitcoin, in our view, is one of the biggest technological developments of the past 15 years,” he said, before explaining that institutionalization brings “new investors and adds more liquidity to the market,” yet also means “we’re seeing a lot more choppiness in times where risk-off moves happen.” He pointed to hedge funds rotating in and out via basis trades and emphasized that “you just have more market participants.” Over time, he expects that shift to damp volatility, but not in a straight line: “throughout that journey, we’re going to see some choppiness, and certainly over the past month, we’ve seen that.” Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Bottom At $56,000? CryptoQuant CEO Presents The Data Pressed on why volatility still looks elevated, Rasmussen separated short-horizon spikes from long-run trend. “If you look at the trend over the past 10 years, volatility has certainly been falling,” he said, but conceded that “over this short-term period, you do see spikes in volatility.” The composition of buyers is, in his view, changing in a stabilizing direction. “The buyers for Bitcoin that we’re seeing come into the market today are more long-term buyers than we’ve seen in the past,” he said, naming wealth managers and financial advisors who “are adding Bitcoin to model portfolios” and “rebalancing on a standard basis.” That institutional style of demand “should all reduce volatility, add more long-term demand,” though he also noted a counterweight: corporate treasury buying that was strong earlier in the year has faded. “The corporate treasuries that are purchasing Bitcoin were coming in in size earlier this year, and that’s really dried up,” he said, arguing that this demand pause is “in part due to this sell-off that we’ve seen in October.” Bitcoin Still Set for $200,000 By 2026 Rasmussen acknowledged the pain of lower prices for recent buyers, but insisted the medium-term path remains higher. “Lower prices are a gift and a curse, of course,” he said. “A lot of investors are feeling pain right now who bought Bitcoin above $100,000 or closer to the $125,000 mark, but we believe that Bitcoin’s going to end the year higher than it is today.” He reiterated that the short-term bottoming process is likely advanced, and then pivoted to his structural thesis: “Institutions are finally here.” He stressed that adoption is gradual rather than instantaneous: “That doesn’t mean that right away they deploy all of their capital.” Even so, he cited early signals such as endowment participation: “even Harvard, we saw with their recent filing, is buying Bitcoin in their endowment.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Deepens Around $90K Level: Classic Late-Stage Fear Structure Emerging On macro, Rasmussen conceded an irony that an asset marketed as sovereign and untethered now reacts to central-bank expectations. Post-COVID, he said, Bitcoin has traded in a “fiscally-dominated environment where rate cuts and other macro elements do play more of a role,” and correlations to equities have “spike[d] or raise[d].” Still, he argued correlations are drifting back toward historical lows, and he emphasized Bitcoin’s tendency to do well in “low rate environments and risk on environments.” Regarding the December Fed meeting, he said “no cut in December is largely priced into the market,” and suggested investors have “already started to turn to 2026.” The price target itself was stated unambiguously. “So this year, we had a price target of $200,000. And I think it’s safe to say that come December, that’s not going to happen. But we do believe that in 2026, Bitcoin will hit $200,000,” Rasmussen said. He attributed that forecast to institutional inflows arriving “in waves,” spanning “wealth managers or endowments or pensions or corporations or governments,” which he believes are creating “a systemic imbalance of demand versus supply.” At press time, BTC traded at $91,205. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In the last week, Bitcoin’s correction took another drastic turn as prices retested the psychological $100,000 price zone, triggering heavy waves of liquidation. Although the premier cryptocurrency witnessed some rebound after, the current market price remains 19.02% away from the all-time high at $126,198. In the hope of a sustained recovery, a popular analyst with the X username PlanD has outlined one critical market condition. Related Reading: Bitcoin Valuation Reset: MVRV Slides Into Macro Correction Territory — What This Means Bitcoin 50-Week EMA Holds Bullish Structure – Analyst In an X post on November 7, PlanD shares insightful analysis on Bitcoin’s latest price movement. The prominent market expert notes Bitcoin’s bounce of $100,700 may have confirmed a bottom formation. Although price dips below $100,700 could still occur, PlanD emphasized the importance of watching out for a bullish weekly close above this crucial support level. Notably, the importance of the $100,700 price zone comes from its alignment with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). Since 2022, this indicator has acted as a crucial metric, with price crosses often signaling a change in market trends. In the present bull run, Bitcoin has decisively retested the 50-week EMA thrice, each time resulting in a price bounce to higher levels. Amid the recent correction, Bitcoin famously hit this support zone again, which PlanD describes as critical to keeping a bullish structure for a possible rebound. As long as market bulls hold the price point above this indicator, the analyst predicts another bullish price action with potential targets between $116,000 – $120,000 in the short-term. Following a steady recovery, PlanD’s further analysis suggests that Bitcoin maintains strong upside potential, with its current momentum aligning with an ascending channel that began in late 2024 and projecting a possible move toward $176,000. In parallel, a broader cup-and-handle formation has been developing since 2023, signaling an even larger long-term target around $340,000, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the asset. Related Reading: Most Dangerous Bitcoin Boom Yet? Ray Dalio Warns Of ‘Stimulus Into A Bubble’ Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $102,277, reflecting a slight 0.23% loss in the last 24 hours. In tandem, weekly and monthly losses of 6.98% and 16.23% indicate that bearish sentiment remains dominant despite a modest price bounce off $100,000. Bitcoin’s retest of the $100,000 level proved pivotal in the ongoing correction, triggering several adverse developments. These included a drop in the investors’ realized price to below $50,000, and losses among top buyers reaching approximately $0.16 billion per hour. All these events, including the subsequent price rebound all underscore the critical psychological importance of the $100,000 zone in the current market structure. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Galaxy Digital has cut its 2025 year-end Bitcoin target to $120,000 from $185,000 in a new research alert circulated on November 5 and shared via screenshots on X by Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research. In the note titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Thorn situates the downgrade squarely in the context of a “major, multi-week selloff,” writing that “Bitcoin is trading below $100k for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse.” Thorn stresses that the shift is cyclical rather than existential, stating plainly: “While bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, cyclical dynamics have evolved.” The firm frames the current backdrop as a decisive turn in market microstructure: “Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $99,000: Expert Breaks Down Why That regime change helps explain both the tempered year-end target and the altered cadence of price discovery that Galaxy now expects. As Thorn puts it, “If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.” Short-term optimism is not abandoned: “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.” Reasons For The Bitcoin Downgrade The downgrade aggregates several identifiable drags, beginning with distribution patterns across the holder base and the market’s capacity to absorb them. Galaxy writes: “Significant coin transfers from old holders to ETFs and new institutional buyers signal maturity, not weakness, but have presented headwinds.” This redistribution—whales handing supply to passive and institutional channels—may strengthen long-term ownership but has, in Galaxy’s telling, blunted near-term momentum. Positioning and leverage are the second leg of the argument. Thorn flags the “significant leverage wipeout from Oct. 10” and adds that it “continues to dent market liquidity and confidence.” The October flush sits at the center of Galaxy’s cyclical reassessment: forced de-risking weakened order-book depth just as large-holder distribution accelerated, leaving price vulnerable into the latest drawdown. A third component is the rotation of capital and narrative attention into other trades. Galaxy is explicit that “Bitcoin started the year as the hottest investment narrative, but AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the Magnificent 7 have absorbed capital and attention that might otherwise flow into BTC.” That diversion extends into crypto-adjacent plumbing as well: “Rapid stablecoin growth has redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payments infrastructure.” The net effect, according to the note, has been a drag on incremental demand for direct BTC exposure and a tougher funding environment for pure-play Bitcoin vehicles. Retail participation, which defined prior peaks, is notably absent at sustained scale, and when it surfaces it tends to be flighty. Thorn writes: “Retail never fully returned at scale post-2021; when it did, the memecoin mania fostered short-termism that is not conducive to understanding and adopting bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.” Without sustained retail sponsorship, Galaxy expects ETF and institutional flows to “define BTCUSD behavior,” adding that “Passive Flows Dominate… lowering volatility and moderating cycles.” This, again, is part of the “maturity era” thesis rather than a repudiation of Bitcoin’s core investment case. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage Policy timing features as a missing catalyst rather than a negative shock. The note observes that “Despite positive rhetoric, no government bitcoin purchases have been announced. In general, the US government has been very quiet on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).” Galaxy does not ascribe immediate downside to the absence, but it removes a bullish tail event that some investors had hoped would materialize this year. Corporate treasuries and listed “Bitcoin-as-reserve” plays also receive a recalibration. Galaxy argues that the next iteration will demand business fundamentals rather than balance-sheet optics alone: “BTCTC Phase 2: The next wave of bitcoin treasury companies will mostly need revenue generation and operating businesses beyond reserve accumulation to differentiate themselves and thrive.” The firm also points to “poor performance of BTC treasury companies” as part of the year’s defining headwinds. Taken together, the factors map to a post-$100k market defined less by reflexive retail surges and more by methodical institutional accumulation. Galaxy calls it the “Post-$100k Regime,” in which “Bitcoin’s ascendance above six figures earlier this year marked the transition from early-era speculation to mature, institutionalized markets.” The conclusion threads the needle between structural conviction and cyclical prudence: “As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.” At press time, BTC traded at $103,093. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Global macro signals are flashing both warning and opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC). On one hand, major bank Standard Chartered PLC has flagged the potential for Bitcoin to dip below $100,000 in the near term. Related Reading: 16,000 Ancient Bitcoins Just Moved—And It’s Costing Whales Billions On the other hand, significant growth in global M2 money supply strengthens the backdrop for a longer-term upside. Short-Term Correction Predicted as Trade & Liquidity Risks Mount According to head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin could briefly fall under the $100,000 mark amid intensifying global risks, particularly the escalating U.S.–China trade tensions. BTC's price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Although he deems the drop as temporary, Kendrick frames it as a “buying opportunity,” asserting this may be “the last time Bitcoin is EVER below” $100,000. He further points to shifts in capital flows, notably from gold into Bitcoin, as signs of rotation and deeper structural appeal. Technical indicators such as the 50-week moving average are cited as meaningful support zones, adding credence to his view that the correction may be short-lived. Bullish Macro Backdrop: M2 Growth & Institutional Flows Intact Despite the caution in the short run, the macro landscape offers supportive themes. Analysts note that global M2 money supply growth accounts for a significant portion of Bitcoin’s historical price variance, highlighting the asset’s evolving role beyond speculative crypto. As central banks continue to inject liquidity, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader money-supply trends reinforces its potential as a hedge or portfolio diversifier rather than purely a speculative vehicle. Furthermore, institutional interest and on-chain activity remain elevated, underscoring that this pull-back could be a healthy mid-cycle reset rather than a structural reversal. What This Means for Bitcoin (BTC) Investors In practical terms, investors should brace for potential near-term downside around or below $100,000 while keeping an eye on key support levels and macro catalysts. Kendrick maintains his bullish target of $200,000 by year-end and even $500,000 by 2028, suggesting that the current dip could represent a long-term entry point. Related Reading: Last-Ever Bitcoin Dip Below $100,000 Looms This Week, Standard Chartered Warns At the same time, the market remains exposed to trade-war developments, Fed policy surprises, and liquidity shocks, factors that could trigger more substantial movement. A dip below $100K may feel ominous, but for some strategists, it could be the last major shopping window before the next leg higher. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD on Tradingview
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding a tight range around $121,000–$123,000 after tapping a fresh all-time high near $126,000 earlier this week. Under the surface, demand remains robust as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged an eighth straight day of net inflows, with one session alone adding $441 million. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Might Never Drop Below $100,000 Again Over the past week, cumulative ETF net flows have climbed by billions, pushing total Bitcoin ETF assets toward $160 billion. This steady pipeline of capital, now a fixture of pension funds, RIAs, and asset managers, continues to soak up more BTC than miners create, tightening free float and muting deeper pullbacks. The setup reinforces Bitcoin’s evolving role as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge, especially as the U.S. dollar wobbles and macro uncertainty lingers. Technical Levels Point Bitcoin (BTC) to $117K Support, $125K–$126K Ceiling After the spike to new highs, BTC is digesting gains in a sideways band. $125,000–$126,000 remains the near-term ceiling; a decisive daily close above that zone would likely unlock momentum toward $128,000–$130,000 and extend price discovery. On the downside, $117,000 is developing as the first key support, aligning with a heavy cost-basis cluster and prior breakout structure. A deeper fade could probe $114,000 near the 50-day moving average, where trend buyers may re-engage. Momentum indicators are neutral-to-constructive (RSI mid-zone, MACD flattening), consistent with healthy consolidation above rising MAs. Traders are watching for: Spot-led strength over derivatives (cleaner advances). ETF inflows staying positive (supports dips). Range break above $126,000 on expanding volume (bullish confirmation). BTC's price records losses on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Scarcity Meets Institutional Liquidity Bitcoin’s post-halving issuance of 450 BTC/day collides with institutional demand that’s arriving “on schedule” via ETFs, creating a structural supply deficit. Year to date, institutional accumulation has outpaced new supply many times over, a dynamic that historically precedes trend extensions. Add in the dollar-debasement narrative, stubborn inflation, rising debt, and policy ambiguity, and credibly scarce assets like BTC and gold remain in favor. Related Reading: $200 Million Rescue Plan: TRUMP Meme Coin Fights For Survival With net inflows recurring and macro tailwinds intact, a range break toward $130,000 looks increasingly plausible in Q4, provided $117,000 holds on dips and $125,000–$126,000 gives way on a high-volume push. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has made headlines this week by consistently breaking all-time highs, recently surpassing the $126,000 mark for the first time. However, the current price action has not only drawn attention from investors but also reignited discussions surrounding a notable prediction made two years ago. An anonymous user had forecasted that Bitcoin would achieve a peak on October 6, 2025—a prediction that came to fruition just yesterday. Potential New Bear Market Ahead Despite this milestone, Bitcoin has retraced to around $121,000 within hours after today’s record, leading to a wave of liquidations from long positions across various exchanges. This rapid price fluctuation has led many to speculate that the recent peak could potentially mark the cycle’s all-time high, suggesting that Bitcoin might soon enter a new bear market phase. Related Reading: Is A $10,000 Ethereum Price Within Reach? Here’s What Experts Are Forecasting Next The prediction made in December 2023 posits that if historical patterns hold true, the bear market low is expected to occur precisely 364 days later. This theory has gained traction amidst today’s volatility, with experts warning that a shift in market sentiment could be imminent. Market analyst Doctor Profit has recently cautioned that despite the current bullish trend, the market is entering a precarious phase. He noted that while there is a prevailing sense of euphoria, underlying financial indicators are signaling a potential liquidity crisis. Highlighting the current situation, Doctor Profit pointed to the Reverse Repo (RRP) market, which has plummeted from a peak of $2.2 trillion in mid-2022 to a mere $8–10 billion today. This decline raises concerns about the stability of interbank liquidity, suggesting that the financial system may soon face significant dislocations if the RRP continues to dry up. Historical parallels from 2018, 2019, and 2023 indicate that such liquidity issues often precede major market corrections. Moreover, US banks are reportedly grappling with approximately $395 billion in unrealized losses as of the second quarter of the year, putting additional pressure on their balance sheets. Expert Sounds The Bitcoin Alarm In the crypto space, recent trends reveal substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with firms like BlackRock contributing over $1 billion in Bitcoin and $200 million in Ethereum just last week. However, Doctor Profit contends that the market’s broader liquidity picture remains concerning. While retail traders are expressing optimism about a “liquidity flood,” the expert cautions that the influx of cash into money market funds could actually drain liquidity from broader markets rather than enhance it. Related Reading: BNB Price Hits $1,240 Record High: Partners With Chainlink For On-Chain US Economic Data The current market environment is also characterized by a notable uptick in insider selling, according to the expert’s broader landscape analysis, in which executives are reportedly offloading shares at an unprecedented rate, even as retail investor inflows surge. The expert believes that this alleged market manipulation often signals a market cycle peak, creating what he believes “a highly toxic mix” that could have adverse implications for future price movements. In conclusion, Doctor Profit notes that the overall sentiment paints a bearish picture at a macro level. Both the crypto and stock markets are seen as being at an increased risk of entering a bear market after the fourth quarter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
As the Bitcoin price approaches record highs, recently surpassing the $121,000 mark, analysts are increasingly optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s trajectory for October, often termed “Uptober.” According to the analysis team at The Bull Theory, there’s a possibility that the Bitcoin price could reach as much as $143,000, meaning a potential surge of nearly 20% for the rest of the month. Bitcoin Price Poised For October Rally Such projections may seem ambitious, but historical data supports the notion that October has consistently been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Over the past 12 years, BTC has closed in the green during October in 10 of those years, and the correlation between strong performances in September and October is noteworthy. Following a positive September—where the Bitcoin price recently posted a gain of 3.91%—the stage appears set for another fruitful October. Bitcoin has an impressive October win rate of 83%, having only recorded losses in the month twice since 2011. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Forecast: Expert Predicts Final Impulse Wave Targeting $18,000 In 2014, the cryptocurrency fell by 12.95%, and in 2018, it dropped by 3.83%. This remarkable track record highlights October as one of the most profitable months for Bitcoin holders, with an average return of 20.62%. The pattern remains consistent: every time September has closed positively, October has followed suit. Historical data from previous years shows that a green September often leads to substantial gains in October. For instance, in 2015, the Bitcoin price rose by 33.49% after a September increase of 2.35%. Similarly, in 2023, a 3.91% gain in September translated to a substantial 28.52% increase in October. Could BTC Reach $150,000? The bullish sentiment doesn’t end there. In four out of four instances where both September and October closed positively, November also maintained the upward trend. The data showcases consistent gains: in 2015, November saw a 19.27% increase following a strong October. If Bitcoin were to replicate its historical average return of 20.62% this October, a price point around $143,539 could be on the horizon. Even if it aligns with the median return of 14.71%, investors could see new records reaching just above $136,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Nears Record Levels, Predictions Point To $140,000 By Early 2026 Market expert Michael van de Poppe has also chimed in on the bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price. He noted several strong technical indicators, including BTC’s ability to hold the 20-week moving average as support, breaking through a downtrend at $112,000, and positioning for the highest weekly close in its history. Recent performance has seen a robust 11% weekly candle, further fueling optimism. Additionally, with gold experiencing a significant run, the expert suggests that the Bitcoin price appears poised to catch up. Van de Poppe has expressed confidence that, if current trends continue, the market’s leading cryptocurrency could not only hit $150,000 this quarter but also achieve a new all-time high within the month. When writing, BTC trades at approximately $121,669, only 2% below all-time high levels above $124,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The time for optimistic predictions about the Bitcoin price reaching a new record is swiftly running out. Many analysts initially predicted that the market’s leading cryptocurrency would achieve a milestone of $200,000 this year. However, as time progresses, these forecasts are being adjusted, with some traders on crypto prediction platforms lowering their price targets. Despite this, the potential for new all-time highs (ATHs) still lingers for the remainder of the year. Historical Data Points To New Records In Q4 Recently, the Bitcoin price once again surged past the significant $120,000 threshold, a level that has acted as a major resistance barrier over the past months. However, a sustained weekly close above this mark could set the stage for Bitcoin to reach new heights. This price movement follows the release of softer private payrolls data, which has bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Related Reading: Here’s Why Analysts Are Predicting A Massive Shiba Inu Price Rally In October According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now estimate a 99% probability of a quarter-point reduction on October 29, a noticeable increase from 86% just a week earlier. As such, analysts from the Motley Fool remain optimistic, suggesting that the Bitcoin price could still achieve a price target of $140,000 by early 2026. Historical data supports this optimism, as Bitcoin has consistently shown strong performance in the fourth quarter (Q4). Over the years from 2013 to 2024, the average Q4 return for Bitcoin has been an impressive 85%. Notably, in 2020, Bitcoin saw an increase of 168% in the final quarter, while in 2017, it skyrocketed by 215%. Even further back to 2013, Bitcoin posted an extraordinary return of 480%. Key Months For The Bitcoin Price Looking at the data, October and November have historically marked significant turning points for the Bitcoin price. November stands out as the most lucrative, with an average return of 46%, followed closely by October at 22%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Calm Is Over — ‘Every Time This Happened, Price Went Vertical,’ Says Analyst Current predictions from prediction markets suggest that traders are granting Bitcoin a 63% chance of reclaiming its previous all-time high of $125,000 by the year’s end. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by early 2026 stands at 47%, while the chance of hitting $140,000 has been estimated at 32%. However, the window for achieving higher price levels is quickly closing, as evidenced by a mere 22% chance of reaching $150,000 this year and only a 5% chance of hitting $200,000. Despite the optimism, Motley Fool analysts have noted that market sentiment has soured since August. Prediction markets reflect this shift, indicating a 6% probability of Bitcoin slipping below $70,000. Moreover, there’s a 2% chance that the Bitcoin price could dip below $50,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
In an interview with Dutch host Paul Buitink published on September 4, Henrik Zeberg, Head Economist at SwissBlock, set out a two-stage roadmap for Bitcoin and crypto: a final, powerful “melt-up” driven by liquidity and momentum, followed by a dot-com-style bust that he says will be catalyzed by a surging dollar and tightening financial conditions. “We do have the largest bubble ever,” Zeberg said, arguing that equities, crypto and real estate will first climb further before the cycle turns. “The music is still playing and you can still get a drink at the bar,” he quipped, extending his Titanic metaphor to explain why he believes sentiment and macro signals have not yet turned decisively negative. Bitcoin, Ethereum To Soar Before Dot-Com Style Crash Zeberg locates the current moment late in the business cycle but not at the point of breakdown. He points to the absence—so far—of classic pre-recession triggers in yields, credit spreads and initial jobless claims. “A crash doesn’t come out of thin air,” he said. “We simply don’t see those signals just yet.” With global liquidity improving at the margin and the Federal Reserve already “pivoting” in tone, he expects a sharp upside phase reminiscent of Japan’s 1989 finale: a rising angle that steepens into a near-vertical blow-off. At the index level, he pegs the S&P 500’s terminal run at roughly 7,500 to 8,200 from around 6,400 today. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Cut Back: Average Holdings At Lowest Since 2018 Crypto, in his view, will amplify the move. Zeberg expects Bitcoin to lurch first to “at least” $140,000, then top somewhere in the $165,000 to $175,000 range before the bust begins. He projects Ethereum near $17,000 on the assumption that the ETH/BTC ratio can stretch to about 0.12 in a late-cycle altcoin phase. He stressed the path would be abrupt rather than leisurely: “When things are moving in crypto and into the final phase of a bubble, it can be very, very fast.” The fulcrum of his thesis is the US dollar. Zeberg is watching closely for a DXY bottom and then a surge to 117–120—“the wrecking ball” that, in his telling, would hammer risk assets as global dollar demand spikes. “If we’re going to see somewhat of a crisis, all this debt will need to be settled in dollars,” he said, calling the greenback “still the cleanest shirt,” even if it is “getting quite nasty.” In that scenario, liquidity preference overwhelms risk appetite, credit tightens and deleveraging begins—especially outside the US, where dollar liabilities collide with local-currency cash flows. He argues that monetary easing cannot ultimately forestall a cyclical turn once the real economy rolls over. Rate cuts may initially goose markets—“You’re going to see it running up really fast”—but then “the more wise people in the market” will infer weakness rather than salvation. He thinks the Fed will start with 25 basis points this month, while leaving open the possibility of a larger shock move. Either way, he sees a relatively short deflationary bust—“six to nine months” in one formulation—followed by policy panic and, on the other side, a stagflationary phase in which “the tools of the Fed will become impotent.” He was caustic about the profession’s inflation priors, skewering what he called the “hubris” of micromanaging CPI to exactly 2% and ridiculing the decision to award Ben Bernanke a Nobel Prize for what he described as “reinventing money printing,” calling it “the most stupidest thing I’ve ever seen.” Zeberg’s commodity framework slots into that sequence. He expects gold to do its “finest duty” during a liquidity crunch—get sold to raise cash—before it reprises 2008’s pattern with a steep drawdown, then a powerful recovery. He cited the 2008 analog of a roughly 33–35% peak-to-trough decline in gold and as much as 60% in silver before the policy response set a new leg higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Rare Buy Signal Not Seen Since $49,000 And $74,000 Bottoms Secularly, however, he projects gold “into the 2030s” at as much as $35,000 per ounce as negative real rates, balance-sheet expansion and an eventual “monetary reset” reprice money. That reset, in his vision, would anchor a new settlement system on gold and ledger-based rails—“a digital element to it,” but “not Bitcoin.” Strategy: The Largest Ponzi In The Market? On single-name risk, Zeberg delivered one of the interview’s most incendiary lines about Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. “I think we have the largest open Ponzi game when it comes to MicroStrategy,” he said. “Everybody needs to pile into the stock, then he can take on some more debt and he buys more Bitcoin.” He tied the firm’s vulnerability to his macro template: if DXY heads to 120 and “the largest bubble in the world, the Nasdaq,” suffers an 85%-type drawdown, “Bitcoin is going to have a really, really bad period—and then that means MicroStrategy is going to have that.” He called the structure “the largest house of cards we have seen in a long time” and warned that an unwind would be “really, really bad for people who think they can just hold on to it.” The characterization was his alone; he did not present evidence beyond his cyclical and balance-sheet logic, and his remarks were framed within his broader melt-up-then-bust scenario. Beyond headline tokens, Zeberg argued that “99%” of crypto projects will ultimately fail, with only a handful emerging like the Amazons that survived the dot-com washout. He distinguished between speculative coins and blockchain projects that deliver real-world utility, while cautioning that “this rampant speculation” has been prolonged by an era of easy money. As for timing catalysts, Zeberg downplayed the idea of a single trigger and instead described an environment that “becomes toxic” as high rates, falling real income and climbing delinquencies pressure banks and corporates. He is monitoring front-end yields—which he says have begun to “break some levels”—credit spreads, and the dollar’s turn. He also noted that large-cap tech’s earnings concentration has “distorted” the market and that even quality small-cap tech is likely to be dragged lower in an indiscriminate unwind. The first stage, however, remains higher. “It’s a self-propelling cycle,” he said of the melt-up, powered by FOMO and the belief that “the Fed has got our back.” At press time, BTC traded at $111,528. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Matthew Mežinskis, the analyst behind Porkopolis Economics and co-host of the “crypto_voices” podcast, told Marty Bent on TFTC that Bitcoin’s late-cycle upside remains larger than most models imply, arguing that price action continues to track a long-standing “power trend” that has governed every prior boom. Anchoring his view in percentile “bands” around that trend, he contends the market can still deliver a two-to-three-times move into year-end, placing a $250,000 to $375,000 range in play. Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Still In Play? Mežinskis frames the thesis in stark, testable terms. “Bitcoin has traditionally during the booms very easily gotten above the 80th percentile each time,” he said, noting that the strongest phases in earlier cycles climbed “very easily” above the 90th as well. He defines the 80th percentile as roughly 1.3× the trend and the 90th as 2×. On his model, the end-2025 trend value sits near $125,000, which fixes the 80th-percentile validation line at about $170,000 and the 90th at $250,000. “If we don’t get above 170k by year end or into like the first couple months of next year then I would…rethink the idea of the four-year cycles,” he said, before stressing that “it hasn’t been invalidated yet.” Related Reading: Bitcoin In Trouble? Exchange Reserve Spikes To Highest In Months The centerpiece of his outlook is a simple rule-of-thumb extrapolation from those bands. “The 90th is 2x…so 2x is $250k,” he explained. He then extends the historical envelope to the mid-90s percentiles to size a more aggressive—but still precedent-based—target. “In 2021…it was a 96th percentile…the 2.8x—round it here—3x,” he said. “Totally base case, totally possible…would be 2 to 3x the trend…$250k to $375k Bitcoin.” Even as he embraces that range, he tempered expectations for a blow-off beyond it. “I would be very surprised if Bitcoin went above $350 or $375k by the end of the year, but I think it’s possible.” His framework is deliberately non-technical in the chartist sense. “We’re just looking at the power trend and where the price typically is over or under trend every four years,” he said. The model—represented by a “black line” he’s tracked since 2016—has, in his telling, proved more durable than the once-fashionable stock-to-flow approach: “It’s like the best trend line in all of finance…certainly better than the old stock-to-flow ratio.” The percentile overlays are frequency-based markers: the 90th denotes a level above which only 10 percent of observations sit, the 99th above only 1 percent. Historically, he observed, the most explosive cycles—2013 and 2017—briefly reached the 99th percentile, roughly 4.6× trend, a zone 2021 never touched. That “softer top” dynamic is consistent, he argues, with maturation: “As Bitcoin gets more adopted, these peaks do come down.” Pushing beyond the base case, Mežinskis addressed the outlier narratives circulating on social media. He acknowledged hearing projections in the “$444,000 in November” neighborhood and mapped them to his high-percentile bands: “400,000 is the 97th…[between] the 97th and 98th percentile, it’s pretty rare.” Those levels, at about 3½× trend, are—by definition—levels the market spends very little time above. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Rare Buy Signal Not Seen Since $49,000 And $74,000 Bottoms None of this, he emphasized, is a timer. The framework “doesn’t tell you the time…we’re just assuming the four-year cycle.” If the cycle extends or compresses, the model won’t predict that path; it only sketches the altitude the market has historically achieved once a boom is underway. “If the market gets heated…if grandma’s getting excited this Thanksgiving…and giving her grandchildren money to buy Bitcoin, then perhaps it could happen again,” he quipped, before reiterating: “Absolutely possible that we have lower highs and even possible that we get out of the four-year cycle, but I’m still not seeing it based on the price action.” Mežinskis also flagged the hazards that often follow euphoria, warning that narrative shifts at elevated plateaus can coincide with leverage-driven fragility. Should Bitcoin treasury companies lever short-dated convertible debt to chase higher prices, a downturn could expose maturity and liquidity mismatches. “You could see absolutely a cascading [of] liquidations of these Bitcoin treasury companies,” he said, adding that reflexive waves can “go as high as the White House” in terms of policy attention if the cycle crescendos at scale. He was careful not to present that as a base case—“I’m not saying that it will”—so much as a reminder that what climbs on leverage can unwind through the same channel. The test he sets for the market over the next few months is crisp. A move above the 80th-percentile line—about $170,000 given his end-2025 trend—would keep the four-year template intact; a run into the 90th-percentile band would align with prior booms and mechanically prints a ~$250,000 spot price; an excursion toward the mid-90s percentiles would extend the tape to roughly $375,000, a level he calls the “max” he would expect this cycle—even if, as history shows, brief overshoots cannot be ruled out. For now, the structure that’s guided Bitcoin since 2016 “hasn’t been invalidated yet,” and until it is, Mežinskis’ message is unambiguously bullish: the bands are there, the tape has visited them before, and the upper ones still sit far above spot. At press time, BTC traded at $110,397. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent volatility has unsettled investors, as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap slid by more than five percent over the last two weeks. However, two key on-chain factors indicate that the BTC market structure is largely resilient. Bitcoin Remains Strong Despite Volatility According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor XWIN Research Japan, two important on-chain indicators suggest that despite the recent slump in price, the overall market structure remains strong for the flagship cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Binance Turns Bullish – But Is The Market Setting A Trap? The first is Bitcoin’s Delta Cap – a long-term valuation model derived from the difference between Realized Cap and Average Cap – that has historically acted as a reliable floor during major cycles. In early August, BTC traded above this steadily rising line, suggesting that the market is building a stronger foundation compared to previous drawdowns. A rising Delta Cap also signals capital inflows and long-term investor conviction, even during price corrections. The CryptoQuant analyst shared the following chart showing Delta Cap hovering around $739.4 billion. Although BTC is currently trading below this line, a quick move to $120,000 would likely push the price back above it. The second on-chain factor pointing toward resilience in BTC market structure is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which currently stands at +11.6. The high positive value of the metric suggests stronger demand from US institutions, who are accumulating BTC at a premium. For the uninitiated, the Coinbase Premium Gap measures the price difference of Bitcoin between US exchange Coinbase and global exchanges like Binance. A positive gap means Bitcoin trades at a higher price on Coinbase, often signaling stronger US institutional buying demand. Historically, sustained periods of positive premium have preceded major bullish phases, as institutional accumulation drives price discovery. The analyst concluded: Together, these two metrics point toward a constructive setup: Bitcoin consolidating above $100K with strong institutional support and a long-term valuation floor steadily rising. Corrections, rather than being a sign of weakness, appear to be opportunities for accumulation within a robust structural uptrend. Is BTC Out Of The Woods? Although the two aforementioned on-chain indicators point toward strength in BTC market structure, not all analysts are as optimistic. For instance, a fall below $105,000 might send BTC all the way down to $90,000. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Is Heading To $256K — Here’s When Another analyst recently warned that if BTC loses the support at $108,600 level, then it could fall further to $104,000. A failure to bounce from $104,000 could see BTC test the psychologically important $100,000 level. That said, Bitcoin’s rapidly rising illiquid supply on Binance may play a pivotal role in sending it to a fresh all-time high (ATH). At press time, BTC trades at $109,289, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Top market analyst Ali Martinez has shared on-chain data that tips Bitcoin to reach a $130,000 valuation, albeit on one condition. This bullish price prediction comes following a slight 2.6% price rebound over the past two days, pushing Bitcoin within the $118,000 price range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Still Tumble Down To $109,000 — This Chart Pattern Suggests So $110K Emerges As Crucial Bitcoin Support Zone – Here’s Why In an X post on July 26, Ali Martinez postulates that Bitcoin may be on track for a significant leg higher based on recent data from the MVRV pricing bands by Glassnode. However, the premier cryptocurrency must avoid losing a certain support zone to prevent an invalidation of this bullish thesis. The MVRV bands, derived from Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios, help visualize when Bitcoin is either overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical realized price. These bands function like Bollinger Bands but are grounded in on-chain fundamentals, tracking statistical deviations around the mean MVRV value. As of July 23, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $118,782, following a steady climb over recent weeks. According to the MVRV pricing model, the cryptocurrency was hovering just beneath the +1.0σ deviation band, marked at $130,756, representing the next major price resistance and target. Notably, the +1.0σ band is also interpreted as a key zone of extreme market optimism, often preceding local tops (+2.0σ) On the other hand, the model’s +0.5σ band sat at $109,858 below the current market prices, serving as a vital support threshold. Ali Marinez explains that Bitcoin must maintain its price level above this band to retain a high probability of continuation toward the +1.0σ level target based on historical patterns. However, a breakdown below $110,000 could signal a deeper correction, potentially down to the mean band at around $88,960, or lower toward $68,062 (-0.5σ). Related Reading: AVAX Ready For Range Breakout – Bulls Eye $36 Price Target Bitcoin Investors Take Profits With Rising Market Confidence According to more data from the MVRV model, the growing distance between BTC’s realized price, around $50,831, and its present market price reflects growing investor conviction. For context, the realized price represents the average cost basis of all coins in circulation, thereby indicating how deeply in profit the average Bitcoin holder is at the moment. At press time, the premier cryptocurrency trades at $118,178 following a 0.73% in the past day. However, the daily trading volume is significantly down by 53.39% and valued at $47.98 billion. According to price prediction site Coincodex, the Bitcoin market sentiment remains largely bullish, with the Fear & Greed Index nearing extreme greed at 72. Coincodex analysts project the leading cryptocurrency to maintain its current rebound, rising to $122,019 in five days and $141,075 in a month. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin market recorded a minor 0.67% price gain in the last 24 hours, amid a brief return to the $118,000 price territory. This modest price increase forms part of a rebound observed over the previous 48 hours, following a significant 4% price correction earlier last week. Looking ahead to the new week, renowned market analyst with X username KillaXBT has identified two potential price development scenarios for the premier cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Holds Above $115,000 — Here’s Why This Level Is Significant Bitcoin Sees Bounce From Key Demand Zone, But What’s Next? In an X post on July 26, KillaXBT provides an in-depth technical analysis of the Bitcoin market to map out the asset’s potential price trajectory in this new week. The popular market expert duly notes that Bitcoin experienced a price bounce after dipping into a key demand zone around $115,000, which they also described as an ideal long entry region. As earlier stated, the crypto market leader has since climbed to $118,000 following this price rebound. However, KillaXBT notes there is an established CME Gap around $117,071, which is likely to serve as a price magnet in the short term. For context, CME gaps are price gaps on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures chart that occur when Bitcoin’s price moves significantly on the spot market when CME markets are closed, typically over the weekend. In view of next week, KillaXBT explains scenario 1 in which the Bitcoin market opens on a bullish note. In this case, the analyst states investors should expect Bitcoin to eventually form a higher low, ideally through a sweep of liquidity around the $116,000 area. However, if Bitcoin bulls can effectively hold this price pocket, it would trigger fresh long setups with stop losses tucked below the prior week’s low. In scenario 2, KillaXBT paints a more aggressive situation in which Bitcoin performs a double sweep of last week’s wick low around $114,800, thereby effecting a ruthless liquidity grab before an upward reversal. However, the market expert favours the reality of scenario 1, following the earlier liquidity grab with the price dip to $115,000. Related Reading: XRP Produces Successful $3 Support Retest – But What Next? The Invalidation Risk Regardless of which scenario, KillaXBT has highlighted certain developments that could neutralize the prospects of a bullish reversal. In particular, the analyst explains that failure for the price to hold above the recent wick lows following a retest would force Bitcoin prices to deeper imbalance zones between $112,000 – $113,800. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $117,900, reflecting a 0.21% gain in the last seven days. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Arthur Hayes has never been shy about big numbers, but his latest essay, Time Signature, frames those targets inside a sweeping macro thesis: a wartime‑style US credit boom that—if it unfolds as he expects—could send Bitcoin and crypto markets into their largest bubble yet. Writing on 22 July, the BitMEX co‑founder argues that financial markets, like dancers, must keep time with the “kick drum” of credit creation. “If we are out of time, we lose money,” he warns, before identifying the beat he believes traders must follow today: US wartime industrial policy, or what he bluntly calls a shift toward economic “fascism.” Hayes centres his argument on the Pentagon’s newly announced deal with MP Materials, under which the US Defense Department will become the miner’s largest shareholder, guarantee a floor price for critical rare‑earth elements at twice China’s current market rate, and back a $1 billion bank loan to build a Nevada processing plant. The structure, he writes, is the template for “QE 4 Poor People,” a credit‑multiplier that expands the money supply without formal Congressional approval. Related Reading: Trump Shares Viral Bitcoin Breakdown — Here’s What He Posted In his schematic example a single commercial‑bank loan to MP Materials “creates $1,000 of new fiat wampum,” then ripples outward as wages, deposits and discounted Treasury borrowing. “The money multiplier is > 1, and this wartime production leads to an increase in economic activity, which is accounted for as ‘growth,’” Hayes observes. The result, he says, is inevitable inflation, yet also “government‑guaranteed profits” for banks and industry. Why Bitcoin And Crypto Is The Bubble Of Choice Hayes’ historical analogy is China’s 1990s–2020s property boom, where a five‑thousand‑percent expansion of M2 forced households into apartments, inflating land values and local‑government coffers. In the United States, he contends, the socially acceptable pressure valve will be digital assets. Two policy shifts underpin that call. First, retirement plans—an $8.7 trillion pool—may now allocate to crypto under a recent executive order. Second, the Trump campaign’s floated proposal to eliminate capital‑gains tax on digital assets could, in Hayes’ words, provide “insane war‑driven credit growth” with “no fucking taxes.” The broader attraction for politicians, he claims, is demographic: younger and more diverse investors own crypto in greater proportions than they own equities, so a bull market would “create a broader, more diverse set of people who are pleased with the ruling party’s economic platform.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Correlation To Altcoins Is Collapsing: A Warning Sign? Even a credit‑fuelled boom must find an audience for the mounting federal deficit. Hayes’ solution is the stablecoin sector, which already places most of its assets under custody in US Treasury bills. On-chain data, he notes, suggest that roughly nine cents of every new dollar in total crypto market value migrates into stablecoins. “Let’s assume that Trump propels the total crypto market cap to $100 trillion by 2028,” he writes; “that would create roughly $9 trillion in T‑bill purchasing power.” The mechanism recalls World War II financing, when the Treasury skewed issuance toward short‑term bills. In Hayes’ view, a self‑reinforcing loop emerges: wartime procurement fuels credit expansion, higher credit lifts crypto, larger crypto capitalization feeds stablecoin demand for T‑bills, and those purchases backstop further deficits. Trading Tactics—And The Year‑End Call Against that macro backdrop Hayes declares his investment vehicle, Maelstrom, “fully invested,” and explains why: “It’s pretty simple: Maelstrom is fully invested. Because we are degens, the shitcoin space offers amazing opportunities to outperform Bitcoin, the crypto reserve asset. […] Ether has been the most hated large-cap crypto. No more; the Western institutional investor class, whose chief cheerleader is Tom Lee, loves Ether. Buy first, ask questions later.” His numerical convictions are explicit: Bitcoin $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by 31 December 2025. The Western credit geyser is, he writes, “about to tear the market a new asshole.” Yet he repeatedly reminds readers that these are personal views, not investment advice. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $118,368. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A prominent crypto analyst with X username PlanD has backed Bitcoin to maintain its uptrend despite some significant price retracement in the past week. Notably, PlanD states the premier cryptocurrency remains on course for a $340,000 price point but only if a specific support zone remains valid. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Says It’s Time For ‘Cautious Optimism’ — Further Upside Growth Incoming? Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Hinges On $91,000 – $100,000 Support Structure In an X post on May 31, PlanD outlined Bitcoin’s potential to soon re-enter price discovery mode regardless of the recent price dip. Since hitting a new all-time high at $111,970, the flagship cryptocurrency has slipped into a minor corrective phase, forcing market prices to go below $104,000. However, PlanD explains that Bitcoin’s price action has a 3-year giant cup and handle pattern that postulates the digital asset is set for immense price gains in the current bull cycle. The cup-and-handle pattern is a common chart pattern that signals a bullish continuation in price movement. As illustrated in the chart above, the cup is formed Bitcoin’s crash from its previous all-time high at $69,000 in November 2021 followed by a stabilization and recovery period which lasted until March 2024 when Bitcoin returned to the same price level. This is followed by the handle which is the descending channel as seen from March 2024 to around October 2024 before Bitcoin achieved a decisive price breakout above the neckline of $76,000 in November 2024. Despite registering impressive strides from this price point to around $112,000, PlanD notes that the Cup-and-Handle pattern tips Bitcoin to hit a price target of $340,000 before 2025. Amidst the ongoing retracement, the analyst states that this bullish structure remains in place as long as Bitcoin remains above the support price zone of $91,000-$100,000. Provided the premier cryptocurrency does not fall below this price level, the ongoing correction is expected to serve as mere pullback in preparation for a major upswing. Related Reading: XRP Price Risks Crash Below $2 As Correction Takes Hold, Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $104,739 following a minor price gain of 0.64% in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is valued at $40.03 billion following a 31.28% increase in the past day. Despite this slight price increase in the past day, Bitcoin must return to its current all-time high at $111,970 to neutralize any current bearish potential. However, the premier cryptocurrency will face familiar resistances at the $106,000 and $109,000 to achieve this task. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview
In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom, draws a stark parallel between America’s growing economic imbalances and its unsustainable reliance on foreign capital—and argues that capital controls, not tariffs, are the only politically viable solution to rebalance the system. In what he dubs the “Boiling Frog Theory,” Hayes foresees a slow, stealthy imposition of financial restrictions on foreign investors that will ultimately accelerate Bitcoin’s rise to $1 million by 2028. Titled Fatty Fatty Boom Boom, the essay begins with a provocative metaphor: America’s bloated financial system is likened to the obesity crisis—a pathology enabled by cheap processed inputs and pharmaceutical band-aids that preserve a diseased status quo. “The American economy was hijacked by printed money,” Hayes writes, tracing the origin of US imbalances back to the Federal Reserve’s inception in 1913 and the permanent shift away from natural business cycles to a regime of endless stimulus. Why Capital Control’s Could Drive Bitcoin To $1 Million Tariffs, according to Hayes, are politically and structurally impotent. Even under Trump, their application will be diluted through bilateral carve-outs and geopolitical concessions, allowing countries like Vietnam and Mexico to act as arbitrage hubs. “Without one tariff for all, there will always be a country or countries that act as trans-shipment arbitrage points,” he explains, noting that this same dynamic lets China skirt semiconductor restrictions via third-party intermediaries. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Firms Are This Cycle’s Bubble, Experts Warn Instead, Hayes sees capital controls—specifically taxes on foreign ownership of US financial assets—as the only strategy with both economic bite and political payoff. He proposes a 2% annual tax on foreign-held stocks, bonds, and property, totaling approximately $33 trillion. Such a levy could eliminate federal income taxes for the bottom 90% of Americans, making it a “winning political strategy” for Team Trump. “Either foreign capital stays, pays the tax, and revenue is used to eliminate income taxes… or foreign capital leaves, and American manufacturing grows,” Hayes argues. But if capital leaves, who replaces it? Hayes is blunt: the US will turn to the printing press. “Remember that 4/4 kick drum, the Brrr button. Y’all know what the answer is,” he quips, referring to the return of quantitative easing, the suspension of QT, treasury buybacks, and loosened regulatory constraints like the supplemental leverage ratio. Hayes believes the Fed, despite rhetorical resistance, is already enabling this stealth monetization by targeting long-duration treasury bonds for QE. “Powell’s ass is sat firmly in the cuck chair, and he ain’t leaving. Now pass the lube,” he writes, in typical Hayes fashion. The ultimate effect of this capital exodus and ensuing monetary response, he contends, will be the devaluation of US treasuries in real terms and the reallocation of global capital into stateless, censorship-resistant assets like Bitcoin. Unlike gold, which requires intermediaries to function in the digital realm, Bitcoin is a native digital bearer asset that can operate outside state-controlled financial infrastructure. “Bitcoin is the perfect and only lifeboat for global capital that must leave America and elsewhere,” he asserts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Is Far From Over—Top Expert Predicts Surge To $150,000 Hayes notes that even the Trump administration appears ideologically aligned with Bitcoin and gold, pointing to the removal of tariffs on gold and the regulatory de-escalation around crypto. With these assets potentially being elevated to reserve status, Bitcoin is poised to absorb capital fleeing dollar-denominated instruments. In his forecast, Hayes considers the migration of even 10% of foreign-held US portfolio assets—$3.3 trillion—into Bitcoin. At current market depth, that would trigger a supply shock far beyond a simple 10x price move. “If 10x the amount of capital attempted to squeeze into the market, it would lead to a much greater than a 10x rise in price,” he predicts, citing the inelastic supply and long-term holders unwilling to sell. The result? A path to $1 million per Bitcoin by the 2028 US presidential election. Hayes also reveals that Maelstrom went “maximum long” during the early April financial turmoil and is now rotating into “quality altcoins”, which he believes offer real services and return profits to token holders. Still, he warns of tactical volatility, noting that Trump’s strategy is fluid and opposition within the administration remains. But for Hayes, the trajectory is clear. Capital controls are no longer fringe theory—they are becoming inevitable policy. And Bitcoin, he concludes, is the only asset positioned to benefit from the collapse of Pax Americana’s financial plumbing. At press time, BTC traded at $102,377. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
In the latest episode of The Bitcoin Layer, host Nik Bhatia invited on-chain analyst James Check—better known as “Checkmate”—to dissect the forces that have carried bitcoin past six figures and to explain why he believes the market still points toward a move to roughly $150,000. From the outset, Check framed his analysis in sweeping macroeconomic terms. Since the 2008 financial crisis, he said, dollar strength has been “a big up-trend” that rewarded foreign investors who benchmark in other currencies, buy dollars, and place those dollars into US equities. But that era, he argued, is giving way to a “sound-money dominance regime”: “My favorite chart is the S&P 500 priced in gold. You get about ten years where equities trounce gold, then ten years where gold trounces equities. Since 2022 that chart flipped in gold’s favor, and for the first time in history we have a mature, trillion-dollar bitcoin sitting right alongside it. We’re watching the rules shift, and it’s not going to happen overnight—it’ll take a decade, maybe longer, to fully play out.” Why $150,000 Is Next For Bitcoin The conversation quickly moved from macro currents to market structure. After the spring sell-off that drove prices from the mid-$90,000s to the mid-$70,000s—an “air pocket” where little historical supply had transacted—bitcoin clawed back the dense supply cluster around $95,000 with surprising ease. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as $312M BTC Exit Binance Following US-China Trade Deal “People were willing to just sit tight and allow the market to find its level. They’d bought at $100,000, watched it fall to $75,000, bought some more, and now they’re up on the whole stack. That kind of behavior is a real boost of confidence.” Shortly after that consolidation, the market printed a local high near $105,000. For veteran participants, the psychological shift was palpable. “$100,000 was the target for the last decade,” Check said. “Now it’s the floor. Bitcoin has proved it belongs at a trillion-dollar market cap, flipped silver, and feels perfectly natural sitting among the five largest monetary assets on earth.” Check’s quantitative framework hinges on the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, which benchmarks price against the aggregated on-chain cost basis. Translating historical MVRV extremes into forward levels puts the present cycle’s statistical ceiling near $166,000: “If price goes to $166,000, my objective analyst self has to say, ‘We’re two standard deviations above the mean, and we’ve only stayed higher than this five percent of the time.’” That band—roughly $150,000 to $160,000—marks the altitude where he expects the first serious wave of profit-taking. Yet the level remains plausible precisely because it is rooted in realized behavior, not in the supply-halving calendar: “There’s a reason MVRV only gets so high. When people look at their portfolio and see a house sitting there in green numbers, a chunk of them will hit the sell button. You don’t need everyone to sell—just enough to overwhelm new demand.” Derivatives, “Time Pain” And The Halving A maturing derivatives market is central to Check’s thesis. He expects perpetual-swap funding rates to breach 20 percent annualized on a rapid run toward $150,000, inviting basis traders to short futures and collect the premium. Options desks, meanwhile, can harvest fat volatility premia by selling calls. “Big asset managers must hedge. If they can’t lay off a billion-dollar position in options they won’t take the position in the first place. Derivatives aren’t papering over demand—they’re the plumbing that lets real capital scale into the asset.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Targets $110,000 All-Time High After Consolidation Trend Ends Those instruments also reshape corrections. Where 2017 pullbacks were 40% plunges that reversed in days, today’s market prefers shallower, longer consolidations—episodes that impose what Check calls time pain. “Depth pain is easy to see—your coins are 30% underwater. Time pain is harder. Three months of chop at the same level will wear investors out, and boredom is a powerful seller.” Perhaps one of the most striking element of the interview was Check’s deliberate break from the four-year, halving-centric cycle model. After studying the August–September 2023 pullback, the mid-2024 range, and the latest sell-off, he concluded that the short-term-holder cost basis now functions less as a binary floor or ceiling and more as a mean-reversion anchor. “People are now using bitcoin to respond to the world rather than us responding to bitcoin. Macro sentiment—not scheduled supply shocks—is steering the big flows.” Treasury Adoption And The Confidence Machine When tracking corporate treasuries, ETFs, and other large holders, Check zooms out to a 30-day change in realized cap—the cleanest view of net dollar inflows. Even March-April ETF outflows, he noted, were nearly matched by falling CME open interest, implying “mechanical cash-and-carry unwinds rather than lost conviction.” Closing the conversation, he returned to first principles: “Markets are a big confidence machine. The dollar cycle, the gold-equity rotation, the cost of hedging—all of that feeds straight into bitcoin order books, option smiles, and on-chain ledgers. The only real question is: what’s the fair macro premium for digital sound money?” For James Check, the chart already sketches an answer: somewhere around $150,000, the confidence machine will stage its next major test. At press time, BTC traded at $102,573. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com