Bitcoin price is attempting a fresh increase above $120,000. BTC is now consolidating and might attempt a steady move toward the $125,000 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase from the $115,800 zone. The price is trading above $119,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $119,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $120,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upward Move Bitcoin price started a correction from the new high at $123,200. BTC dipped below the $120,000 level and tested the $115,500 zone. A low was formed at $115,730 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were above to push the price above the $118,000 and $118,500 resistance levels. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the move from the $123,140 swing high to the $115,730 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $119,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $119,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $120,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $121,400 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the move from the $123,140 swing high to the $115,730 low. The next resistance could be $123,150. A close above the $123,150 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $124,200 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $125,000 level. The main target could be $126,200. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $121,400 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $119,000 level and the 100 hourly SMA. The first major support is near the $117,500 level. The next support is now near the $115,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $113,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $117,500, followed by $115,500. Major Resistance Levels – $121,400 and $123,150.
A rumor is rapidly spreading among crypto investors that the US government may have quietly sold off nearly 170,000 BTC, leaving a fraction of its assumed holdings intact. The speculation began after the US Marshals Service, in response to a FOIA request, revealed that it currently holds only 28,988 BTC valued at approximately $3.4 billion. Many crypto investors took this disclosure to mean that the federal government’s total Bitcoin reserves had declined from the long-assumed figure of around 200,000 BTC. The claim was amplified across the social media platform X, where even some public figures reacted to what appears to be a massive strategic sell-off by the US government. FOIA Request Misinterpreted The confusion of the US government selling the majority of its Bitcoin holdings appears to stem from misinterpretations of the specific holdings of the US Marshals Service with those of the entire federal government. The FOIA request that sparked the debate was submitted by journalist L0la L33tz, and it accurately reflects that the Marshals control just under 29,000 BTC. However, this only accounts for the Bitcoin under the custody of that particular agency. Related Reading: This Analyst Predicted Bitcoin’s Rally To $120,000 Months Ago, Here’s The Rest Of The Forecast On-chain data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence provides a very different picture. According to Arkham, the US government as a whole still holds approximately 198,000 BTC, worth over $23.46 billion at the current price of Bitcoin. These coins are distributed across various federal agencies and are not limited to the Marshals’ holdings. Nevertheless, the misrepresentation took hold quickly. Even US Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is a well-known advocate of Bitcoin, responded to the rumor, saying, “I’m alarmed by reports that the U.S. has sold off over 80% of its Bitcoin reserves, leaving just ~29,000 coins. If true, this is a total strategic blunder and sets the United States back years in the bitcoin race.” What If the US Quietly Sold 170,000 BTC? The repercussions on the broader crypto market would be immense if the US government had indeed sold off 170,000 BTC in secret. A sale of that scale would unleash massive selling pressure and cause a strong drop in the price of Bitcoin. This would erode confidence among investors in the wider crypto market and set off a chain reaction of liquidations across other cryptocurrencies. Such a move would not only cause technical breakdowns in price structure but also cancel out the possibility of governments around the world holding crypto as a form of strategic reserve. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Just Got Rejected From TSDT Resistance That Triggered Last Altcoin Season — Details Moreover, such a dump would directly contradict the federal policy direction set earlier this year. In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order instructing all federal agencies to transfer their Bitcoin and digital asset holdings to the US Treasury. The order formalized the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, which was meant to recognize the cryptocurrency as a national asset. In light of that policy, the notion that the US would quietly sell off the majority of its Bitcoin holdings seems highly improbable under the current Trump administration. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,360. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
After rising rapidly over the weekend to hit new all-time highs, the Bitcoin price seems to have hit a brick wall above $120,000, sparking a correction. While this is expected to be a short correction, a notable development involving an 8-year trendline that has marked the top of previous cycles has emerged. If this trendline resistance holds and Bitcoin fails to break it, then it could mean that the top is in, and what usually follows is a drawn-out bear market. 8-Year Trendline Suggests Bitcoin Top Is In Crypto analyst MartyBoots, in an analysis on TradingView, caught a test of a an 8-year trendline which began back in the 2017-2018 cycle, marking the top of multiple bull markets. This trendline continued into the next major bull market and in the 2020-2021 bull market, the trendline once again marked the cycle top, with Bitcoin peaking at $69,000. Related Reading: This Analyst Predicted Bitcoin’s Rally To $120,000 Months Ago, Here’s The Rest Of The Forecast Presently, the Bitcoin price has once again come in contact with this trendline, and the rejection from here does suggest that this trendline could be the real deal. After hitting above $123,000, Bitcoin was promptly pushed back downward from this level as sell-offs and profit-taking became the order of the day. For this trend to be complete, though, there are a number of things that would need to happen first. For example, the analyst explains that investors should watch for the weakly RSI divergence turning bullish. Additionally, a decline in volume and more rejection wicks for Bitcoin would be confirmation that the price has topped. Marty also explained that the price touching this trendline for a third time increases the odds of it actually playing out the same way it has in the past. If this trendline does mark the top once again, then it could signal the start of another bear market. As the analyst explains, a top marked by this trendline has in the past “triggered multi-month correction and Bear Markets.” Still A Chance For Bullish Continuation The test of this trendline does not necessarily mean that the Bitcoin price has to top at this level, because there is still a chance of bullish continuation. As the analyst explains, a decisive break above the trendline would turn this level into support and trigger further upside. Related Reading: Ethereum Forms ‘Pure Cup And Handle’ Pattern After Hitting $3,000, Analysts Set New Targets In addition to this, there is also a lot of buying pressure on the Bitcoin price despite the profit-taking. More importantly is the fact that very large orders await at the $114,000 level. This shows a lot of demand for BTC, something that could drive the price upward as the cost basis for investors remains on the rise. Nevertheless, the analyst advises caution at this level until there is a confirmation either way. “Risk-management alert: consider tightening stops, reducing leverage, or hedging until trendline fate is resolved,” Marty said in closing. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the $123,200 zone. BTC is now consolidating below $120,000 and might attempt a fresh increase. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the new all-time high near $123,200. The price is trading below $119,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with support at $118,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $120,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Hits Support Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the new all-time high at $123,200. BTC dipped below the $122,000 and $120,000 support levels to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $108,636 swing low to the $123,140 high. However, the downside was limited and the price found support near the $115,800 zone. The bulls protected a move below $118,000. The price stayed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $108,636 swing low to the $123,140 high. Bitcoin is now trading below $119,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a rising channel forming with support at $118,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $119,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $119,500 level. The next resistance could be $120,000. A close above the $120,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $121,200 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $122,000 level. The main target could be $123,200. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $120,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $118,200 level and the channel. The first major support is near the $116,500 level. The next support is now near the $115,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $113,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $118,200, followed by $115,500. Major Resistance Levels – $120,000 and $122,000.
The Bitcoin price has been cooling off on low timeframes, while the altcoin markets take advantage to trend higher. The top cryptocurrency has been struggling as major holders take profit at BTC’s current level. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Spikes Above 30, But Bitcoin Dominance Remains High, What Next? At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price trades around $118,800 with a 2% gain over the last 24 hours and a 9% gain over the past week, according to data from CoinGecko. Conversely, Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin have seen gains north of 16% on similar timeframes. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Bitcoin Price At Critical Levels, More Gains On The Horizon Following a major upside push from below $100,000, the Bitcoin price broke a persistent downtrend and managed to hit a fresh all-time high close to its current levels. As mentioned, a report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode claimed an increase in profit taking from short-term holders. As these players exited the market, taking over $3.5 billion in profits in just 24 hours, the Bitcoin price lose steam and began moving sideways. While Bitcoin has been on a violent bull run, there are still fears of a major pullback from the $118,000 area to the support zone at around $110,000. However, a report from CryptoQuant, with data from top analyst Crypto Dan, suggests that the Bitcoin bull run still has some room for another leg up. As seen in the chart below, the current BTC market is nowhere near the overheated levels recorded in March and December of 2024. BTC's Realized Cap Age Bands as measured by UTXOs far from previous bear market levels. Source: Crypto Dan via CryptoQuant The CryptoQuant post stated the following, sharing an insight from Crypto Dan: (…) unlike in March and December 2024, on-chain data indicating market overheating shows that the market still hasn’t reached an overheated state. Despite the price rising even higher, the fact that overheating has significantly decreased compared to previous short-term peaks suggests that Bitcoin could continue to break all-time highs and rise significantly in the second half of 2025, leaving strong potential for growth. Bitcoin Bull Run Far From Over? In this context, and if bulls are able to sustain the momentum, Bitcoin is likely heading for higher. As NewsBTC covered earlier, a prediction from a top analyst claims that the levels of BTC adoption are unprecedented. Related Reading: This Fibonacci Level Puts The Dogecoin Price Above $10 This Cycle As such, the analyst said that the ‘real Bitcoin move’ is only about to begin. The analyst stated: I have a high degree of confidence that we’ll see $400k by the end of this year. This target might be too conservative. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has hit a critical turning point after getting sharply rejected from a TSDT resistance level that previously marked the start of a massive altcoin season. As the market reacts to this technical signal, analysts are closely watching for signs that a new altcoin season could be underway—one that could potentially mirror the explosive shift seen in 2021. Bitcoin Dominance Chart Signals Repeat Of 2021 Altcoin Season A new crypto analysis by market expert Tony Severino, posted on X social media on July 15, reveals that Bitcoin Dominance has once again faced a sharp rejection from the crucial TSDT resistance area near 65%. This level represents a technical ceiling that previously triggered a complete rotation of capital from BTC to alternative cryptocurrencies, fueling the famous altcoin season in early 2021. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Falls: 9 Factors To Watch For That Says The Altcoin Season Has Begun The analyst’s monthly chart shows Bitcoin Dominance steadily climbing from mid-2022, peaking at around 65% in July 2025 before being rejected. This behavior mirrors the price action observed in late 2020 to early 2021, when BTC.D also reached this zone, got rejected, and then plunged—triggering a full-blown altcoin rally. Currently, Severino’s chart shows that Bitcoin Dominance sits at approximately 64.07%, just under the TDST resistance at 63.83%, with a notable candle forming after a strong uptrend. The analyst has indicated that if history repeats itself in this current cycle, it may result in a similar capital inflow into altcoins, possibly igniting the next altseason. Furthermore, the chart outlines key technical thresholds, including the TDST resistance, a TDST risk around 57.11%, and TDST support down at 40.08%. A decline toward these lower levels would indicate a significant drop in BTC dominance and further reinforce a pro-altcoin environment. Altcoin Supercycle Incoming Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has also shared insight on the possibility of an explosive altcoin season this bull cycle. The analyst stated on X that a historical pattern between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin Dominance appears to be repeating, signaling the beginning of a new altcoin supercycle. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Spikes Above 30, But Bitcoin Dominance Remains High, What Next? According to his chart, three major DXY bull traps have been identified since 2016, each followed by a dramatic decline in BTC.D and a strong rally in the altcoin market. The first two DXY bull traps, which occurred around 2017 and 2020, both triggered significant breakdowns in BTC.D—plunging from over 90% to around 35% in 2018, and again in 2021. These breakdowns marked the start of powerful runs, now recognized by the analyst as altcoin supercycles. The current market structure now suggests that the next leg lower could be imminent, with BTC.D beginning to trend downward again. If history repeats itself, this setup implies a weakening dollar, declining Bitcoin Dominance, and the potential for altcoins to outperform significantly in the coming months. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A provocative post published on July 14 by long‑time Bitcoin advocate and “Taproot Wizard” Udi Wertheimer has ignited fresh debate over whether the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of what he calls a “generational run the likes of which we’ve never seen.” Bitcoin’s Generational Run Writing on X, Wertheimer contends that Bitcoin is emerging from a rare “rotation” in which early, price‑sensitive holders have surrendered their coins to newcomers—chiefly exchange‑traded‑fund investors, corporate treasuries and even nation‑states—who are largely indifferent to the unit price. “Many, if not most, of old big holders have rotated out of the asset,” he asserted, adding that once such rotations succeed, “what follows is a rally in multiples previously considered unimaginable.” Wertheimer frames his case through an exhaustive retrospective on Dogecoin’s 2019–2021 ascent, arguing that Bitcoin now occupies an analogous position. He recounts how an April 2019 tweet by Elon Musk (“dogecoin might be my favorite cryptocurrency”) triggered an initial 50 percent spike that lulled veteran traders into distributing their bags, only for TikTok‑driven retail inflows to drive the meme coin from roughly $0.0025 to nearly $1 within two years. “Crypto natives thought they knew it was a huge deal, but they underestimated it BY A LOT,” he wrote, describing the move as “the first dogecoin mindfuck,” followed by an even larger “second mindfuck” once legacy sellers exhausted their supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Returns Under $117,000: Is Social Media FOMO To Blame? Transposing that template onto Bitcoin, Wertheimer insists that “the real move didn’t even start yet.” He claims that traditional capital‑market participants—embodied for him by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (ticker: IBIT) and Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy—are blind to earlier cycle highs because they measure performance from the January 2024 ETF launch or in dollar‑notional terms, respectively. Referencing IBIT price surge from $30 to $70, Wertheimer says: “‘It’s only up $40! That’s nothing! Why not $700?’ […] They’re completely insensitive to the bitcoin price,” he adds of treasury‑based buyers, arguing that such entities simply “shove as many dollars as they can.” On price targets, Wertheimer is explicit: “I have a high degree of confidence that we’ll see $400k by the end of this year. This target might be too conservative.” He further predicts an additional order‑of‑magnitude revaluation once “the entire world starts to believe,” echoing Dogecoin’s second‑wave frenzy. “We’re just entering the first mindfuck,” he writes. Related Reading: Unraveling The Bitcoin Boom: Experts Decode Record $123,000 Surge The thread reserves particular ire for competing crypto assets. “Your altcoins are fucked,” Wertheimer declares, suggesting that short‑lived spurts of outperformance will not match the “sheer amount of capital flowing into bitcoin.” He singles out Ethereum as “the biggest loser of the cycle,” forecasting that MicroStrategy’s equity capitalisation could surpass Ether’s market value and arguing that persistent selling by “old bagholders” will cap any relative rally. “ETH/BTC will continue to print lower highs,” he predicts, adding that incoming treasury‑style buyers would need “years” to absorb legacy supply before Ethereum can stage a true breakout. In a direct call to action, Wertheimer tells readers that “you will actually be able to retire off of 1 bitcoin,” urging immediate accumulation and warning that waiting for price dips is futile now that “old holders are out.” He closes with a plea stark in its simplicity: “Wall Street is buying all of the bitcoins … please buy some bitcoin before there isn’t any left.” Wertheimer’s thesis hinges on the notion that seller‑exhaustion dynamics proven in a small‑cap meme coin can translate, mutatis mutandis, to Bitcoin’s vastly larger market. Whether that analogy holds will be tested in the months ahead; for now, his post has sharpened the fault line between long‑term Bitcoin maximalists and a broader crypto community still weighing the merits—and risks—of what he calls “the first mind‑fuck” of a potentially epoch‑defining rally. At press time, BTC traded at $118,686. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The altcoin season has remained elusive because Bitcoin has continued to dominate the market. Even now, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is still in the lead and continues to determine the direction of the rest of the crypto market. However, there is a turn in the tide coming as more altcoins begin to play catch-up. In particular, the coins in the list of Top 100 altcoins by market cap look to be on the verge of ushering in the next altcoin season. Altcoin Season Index Fires Into The Green The Altcoin Season Index is an index that charts the performance of the Top 100 altcoins by market cap against the performance of Bitcoin to determine when the altcoin season is in full bloom. This index, which goes from 1-100, is ranked by how many top 100 altcoins are outperforming BTC over a 90-day period, and when this figure rises to the 75% mark, it often signals that the altcoin season has begun. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Not Stopping At $123,000 — Technical Indicators Point To $140,000 Top Over the last few months, altcoins have performed quite terribly in comparison to Bitcoin, and this has led to the Altcoin Season Index dropping toward peak lows. The index hit a score of 12 back in June 2025, showing that only 12 altcoins had outperformed Bitcoin over the 90-day timeframe. During this time, the Bitcoin dominance also rose rapidly, reaching as high as 66%, and signaling that most of the attention was on BTC during this time. However, the month of July has come with good tidings for the altcoin market as the index has seen its score more than double from its June lows. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the Altcoin Season Index has now crossed a score of 30. It also shows that during this time, 32 coins have outperformed Bitcoin’s 40% increase in the last three months. Interestingly, the meme coins are once again leading the rally with the likes of PENGU and MemeCore rallying over 500% in the 90-day period. HyperLiquid’s HYPE has also performed quite well, with CoinMarketCap data showing it has risen more than 230% in 90 days. Bitcoin Dominance On The Verge Of Collapse? So far, the Bitcoin dominance has maintained its position in the 60th percentile, and this has remained so for the last 90 days. However, over the last two weeks, there has been enough decline in the dominance to spark a ray of hope among investors, and that is a 3% drop toward 63%. Related Reading: Prepare For ATHs: ‘XRP Train Has Left The Station – Analyst Going by historical performance, though, the Bitcoin dominance would need to drop much more than this for altcoin season to begin in full bloom. For example, back in 2017, the Bitcoin dominance crashed from above 95% to around 50% before the altcoin season began. Again, in 2017, the dominance fell from above 70% to around 41% before the altcoin season began. Going by this trend, the Bitcoin dominance would need to see a drop back into the 40% region, and possibly the 30% region, for the altcoin season to really take hold. But as long as the dominance remains high, then Bitcoin would continue to lead the market, and altcoins could continue to struggle. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView.com
A single wallet that has sat untouched since 2011 jolted the market overnight, wiring 40,009 BTC—worth roughly $4.68 billion at prevailing prices—to New York‑based trading giant Galaxy Digital. The address had held 80,009 BTC in total and had never previously moved funds in the modern era. According to on‑chain sleuth Lookonchain, “the Bitcoin OG with 80,009 BTC ($9.46 B) has transferred 40,009 BTC ($4.68 B) to Galaxy Digital,” and Galaxy “has directly deposited 6,000 BTC ($706 M) into Binance and Bybit.” Bitcoin OG Whale Awakens The activity began late Monday evening (UTC). First, 9,000 BTC—about $1.06 billion—left the dormant wallet, followed an hour later by another 7,843 BTC ($927 million) Over the next five hours several smaller tranches arrived at Galaxy Digital’s custodial accounts before the decisive push that brought the running total to 40,009 BTC. Blockchain explorers show the coins originated from a bech32 address that first received block rewards in early 2011, when bitcoin changed hands for less than one US dollar. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trajectory To $155,000: Why No Major Dips Are Expected From Here Notably, Galaxy Digital operates one of the largest over‑the‑counter (OTC) desks in the industry and regularly intermediates block trades for institutions seeking to avoid slippage on public venues. The firm advertises “premier execution” and bespoke liquidity provisioning for trades that are too large for order‑book execution. On‑chain analysts therefore read the wallet’s choice of counterparty as a signal that the owner intends to liquidate at least part of the hoard discreetly rather than deploy it into DeFi or cold storage. Within hours of receiving the coins, Galaxy split 6,000 BTC between Binance and Bybit, the two venues that currently post the deepest spot‑BTC liquidity. Bitcoin had just printed an all‑time high of $123,153 on 14 July, buoyed by Washington’s “Crypto Week” legislative push. As the OG whale’s transactions hit public mempools, spot prices recoiled more than 6%, sliding from $123,000 to an intraday low near $115,700 before stabilising around $116,900 at press time. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Liquidity Supercycle Has Just Begun, Says Hedge Fund CEO With half of the stash now under Galaxy’s control and only a fraction confirmed as exchange deposits, traders are bracing for further transfers. If Galaxy executes an OTC cross, the impact could be muted; if the coins bleed into order books, bids at $112,000‑$115,000 will face a major test. US Inflation Data Dampens Sentiment However, today’s price drop can not solely be attributed to the OG whale’s doing; it coincided with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June CPI print, which showed headline consumer prices rising 0.3 % month‑on‑month and 2.7 % year‑on‑year—up from 2.4 % in May—while core CPI ticked up 0.2 % on the month and 2.9 % on the year. The modest print pushed the dollar index above 95.5, and risk assets have been whipsawing ever since. “The price action on the dollar pretty much tells you everything you need to know about this CPI report—mixed and the market is trying to digest it and to figure out the direction today,” observed Daan Crypto Trades on X. At press time, BTC stood at $116,972. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the $123,200 zone. BTC is now trading below $120,000 and might find bids near the $115,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the new all-time high near $123,200. The price is trading below $120,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $117,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $120,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Corrects From New ATH Bitcoin price started a fresh increase after it cleared the $118,500 resistance zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $120,000 and $122,000 resistance. The bulls even pumped the pair above the $123,000 zone. A new all-time high was formed at $123,140 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $108,636 swing low to the $123,140 high. Bitcoin is now trading below $120,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. However, the price is holding the 50% Fib level of the upward move from the $108,636 swing low to the $123,140 high. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $117,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $118,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $120,000 level. The next resistance could be $122,000. A close above the $122,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $123,200 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $125,000 level. The main target could be $130,000. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $120,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $115,850 level. The first major support is near the $115,500 level. The next support is now near the $114,150 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $115,500, followed by $114,150. Major Resistance Levels – $120,000 and $122,000.
A crypto analyst who accurately predicted the Bitcoin (BTC) price surge to $120,000 months ago has returned with a bold new forecast that could redefine investors’ expectations for the rest of the cycle. Using a detailed Elliott Wave structure and historical halving patterns, the expert outlines what could be Bitcoin’s final parabolic move, laying out a clear roadmap toward a new ATH target. Bitcoin Parabolic Phase Still Ahead Following Bitcoin’s explosive rise above $123,000 in a single day, crypto analyst XForceGlobal reaffirmed his earlier predictions and intensified his bullish outlook. He now asserts that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a much larger breakout, with the final and most parabolic phase of its rally yet to unfold. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trajectory To $155,000: Why No Major Dips Are Expected From Here The analyst Bitcoin Price Trajectory To $155,000: Why No Major Dips Are Expected From Here a detailed chart showing that Bitcoin is now trading over $40,000 above its Wave 2 bottom of the macro 5th. This indicates that the market could be transitioning into Wave 3 of a larger Elliott Wave impulse pattern. The chart also visually segments previous bull market runs into distinct macro phases, each unfolding after a halving cycle. Every phase began with a consolidation period, followed by exponential growth and eventual correction. Bitcoin’s price history is further marked by the halving events in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—all of which have consistently preceded major bullish rallies. The latest halving, which occurred in April 2024, is now expected to lead to an intermediate-term rally that may extend BTC’s price beyond $270,000 before entering another corrective phase. While XForceGlobal maintains a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin, he urges investors to be cautious and aware that the final wave may generate market euphoria before a significant decline sets in. His projected roadmap shows a steady bullish climb toward $272,832, followed by a potential retracement to around $41,646, marking a steep 85% crash from the top. During his analysis, the market expert highlighted the difference between smart and dumb money during this bullish phase of the cycle. He claimed that smart investors have already mapped out their exit strategies, understanding that success comes from early planning rather than spontaneous decisions. He also added that with the market yet to reach a climax, there’s still time to prepare an exit before red flags emerge. Analyst Predicts $155,000 As Bitcoin’s Next Stop In a follow-up X post, XForceGlobal forecasted Bitcoin’s next short-term price target at $155,000. This prediction comes as BTC recently rallied past $123,000 before undergoing a pullback, now trading slightly above $116,800. According to the analyst, Bitcoin remains firmly in an extended Wave 3, which traditionally represents the most impulsive and powerful phase of the Elliott Wave sequence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Break Above $118,000 Just The Start, Analyst Unveils ‘Golden Number’ XForceGlobal’s chart reveals that Bitcoin recently broke out from a complex WXYXZ correction structure, which served as the launchpad for the present rally. His projection suggests that BTC is now forming a five-wave structure targeting the $140,000-$155,000 range, with macro-level corrections expected along the way. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
In a major display of bullish momentum, the market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), surged to a new record high on Monday, surpassing $123,000 for the first time. US House Kicks Off ‘Crypto Week The Bitcoin price climbed more than 90% year-to-date with Monday’s rally, reaching $123,200, and reflecting a nearly 15% increase over the past month. This upward momentum coincides with the US House of Representatives’ “crypto week,” which will feature debates on legislation aimed at reducing regulatory hurdles that have long been viewed as obstacles for the cryptocurrency sector. Related Reading: Fibonacci Maps Dogecoin Path To $23—Is It Too Far-Fetched? One of the key pieces of legislation set for discussion in the House is the GENIUS Act, which aims to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins. Proponents of the GENIUS Act argue that it is a groundbreaking initiative that formalizes a critical aspect of the cryptocurrency industry. They believe it will enhance consumer protections, facilitate the entry of traditional financial institutions, and contribute to the growth of the digital currency market. Conversely, critics assert that the bill represents a “weak set of regulations” that may not adequately safeguard consumers or prevent illicit trading activities involving stablecoins. Growing Support For Crypto Regulation In addition to the GENIUS Act, the House will also debate measures to clarify the federal government’s regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies and proposals that could prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing its own digital currency. Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, remarked that this legislative push reflects a series of favorable developments for the crypto industry since President Donald Trump’s election in November. Since then, Bitcoin’s price has surged nearly 80%. As “crypto week” unfolds, Armour suggests it signals a continuation of supportive policies under the Trump administration. However, Trump’s involvement in the cryptocurrency space has raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest. For instance, his backing of World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1, has led to significant investments in major exchanges like Binance, which critics say creates opportunities for Trump’s business to profit. Despite these concerns, Trump has denied any wrongdoing, and a White House spokesperson has stated that his financial assets are managed in a trust to avoid conflicts. Bitcoin ETFs Propel Price Surge The recent surge in Bitcoin prices has also been fueled by the US approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last year. These investment vehicles have proven to be successful, with record-breaking amounts of capital moving into them. Related Reading: Prepare For ATHs: ‘XRP Train Has Left The Station – Analyst The overall asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has reached a record high of over $158 billion, driven by a wave of investments that included over a billion dollars flowing into these funds on consecutive days last week. Nikhil Bhatia, a finance professor at the University of Southern California, noted that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has contributed significantly to institutional adoption of Bitcoin, signaling a return to a bullish market sentiment. As of this writing, BTC’s price has retraced back to the $117,000 level, 4.3% below its recently achieved all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Global investment bank TD Cowen has recently revised its price target for Strategy’s (previously MicroStrategy) stock, MSTR, raising it from $590 to $680 per share and a bullish prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) prices, which could soar to $155,000 by December. Possible 53% Drop For Bitcoin The firm’s study outlines a base-case scenario for Bitcoin at $128,000 by year-end, with a more pessimistic outlook placing it as low as $55,000, which could mean a major 53% crash from current prices. TD Cowen analysts assert that a significant increase in Bitcoin prices is expected to positively impact Strategy’s share price, given its status as the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Related Reading: Prepare For ATHs: ‘XRP Train Has Left The Station – Analyst On July 14, Strategy purchased an additional 4,225 BTC for $472.5 million, averaging $111,827 per coin. This latest acquisition brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to an impressive 601,550 BTC. Analysts at TD Cowen noted that what began as a defensive measure to preserve the value of its assets has evolved into a proactive strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder value. Strategy plans to continue acquiring Bitcoin through proceeds from upcoming debt and equity offerings. The firm anticipates that Strategy will raise around $84 billion through its innovative “42/42” plan, which involves an equal mix of debt and equity, potentially increasing its Bitcoin reserves to 900,000 BTC by the end of 2027. Strategy As Strong Investment Option TD Cowen has initiated buy ratings on Strategy’s preferred shares, emphasizing their attractive income potential and price appreciation, which are expected to be less volatile than common shares or Bitcoin itself. This endorsement comes after the firm first recognized Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy in 2023, describing it as a “paradigm shift.” At that time, they highlighted the company’s approach of utilizing cash from its software business to invest in Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against dollar inflation. Analysts believe that Bitcoin’s finite supply makes it a more reliable store of value compared to traditional currencies or gold, presenting Strategy as an appealing option for investors looking to gain Bitcoin exposure. Related Reading: Avalanche Shatters Record With 20M Transactions—Is Real-World Use Finally Here? As institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies accelerates, Strategy’s acquisition strategy has become a blueprint for other corporate treasuries. The company’s total investment in Bitcoin now stands at $29.27 billion, yielding substantial unrealized gains with a cost basis of $71,268 per BTC. The latest report and Strategy’s recent purchase coincided with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high, surpassing $123,000, underscoring the growing acceptance and adoption of BTC in the financial landscape. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has retraced to $117,000 in an attempt to find its next support level before moving on to uncharted territory once again if buying demand persists among investors. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $118,500 zone. BTC traded to a new high above $120,000 and recently started a downside correction. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $120,000 zone. The price is trading near $118,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $119,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $120,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Sets New ATH Bitcoin price started a fresh increase after it cleared the $116,500 resistance zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $118,000 and $120,000 resistance. The bulls even pumped the pair above the $122,000 resistance zone. A new all-time high was formed at $123,140 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $108,636 swing low to the $123,140 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $119,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading near $118,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $119,550 level. The first key resistance is near the $120,500 level. The next resistance could be $122,000. A close above the $122,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $123,200 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $125,000 level. The main target could be $130,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $120,500 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support is near the $117,500 level. The first major support is near the $115,800 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $108,636 swing low to the $123,140 high. The next support is now near the $114,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $117,500, followed by $115,800. Major Resistance Levels – $120,500 and $122,000.
The bull market may be taking longer than expected to kick into its final gear, but the Bitcoin price structure remains bullish and steadily climbing within a rising trend channel. However, the potential upper targets have also moved higher, and might open the door to unprecedented price levels in the weeks ahead. Why The Bull Market Delay Might Be Good News Global uncertainties have delayed the second and possibly final phase of the current bull market in cryptocurrencies. According to master kenobi’s post on X, he noted that these delays may end up working in our favor. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Liquidity Supercycle Has Just Begun, Says Hedge Fund CEO While Bitcoin and altcoins have remained within the boundaries of an ascending trend channel, the upper and lower limits of this channel are steadily rising, and showing resilience in market structure despite the external hesitation. If the second phase of the bull market ignited in April, projections suggest that the BTC upper limit might have topped out between $134,000 and $155,000. However, as this didn’t happen, the upper limit has continued to climb, and if the 50-day pump pattern holds, the upper limit could be reached around August 11, at a range of $169,000 and $197,000. Naturally, this requires relative global stability. “Let’s hope for another 30 days of calm, as 20 days have already passed,” the analyst added. Why Bitcoin Surge Is A Market-Wide Trigger In an X post, Davie Satoshi also mentioned that Bitcoin is on the verge of something big, that BTC is hovering in the middle of a multi-year bullish channel. It has been marked by long-standing green trendlines, and has just broken through the resistance level, which is indicated by a blue dotted horizontal line that has capped upside momentum until now. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Reach $135,000 By September’s Close, Standard Chartered Forecasts Every time the Stoch Relative Strength Index (RSI) crosses over on the monthly chart, it leads to an explosive rally, and with the crossover freshly triggered, many see this as the start of something big and not just for Bitcoin. The analyst stated that a rising tide lifts all boats, and that Bitcoin has always been the bellwether of the crypto market. They also suggest that BTC price could surge toward $180,000 to $200,000, with a potential top forming around late August to September, which will be followed by alt season and peaking in Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. The memecoins and altcoins continue to dominate the narrative in the crypto space this year. The next NFT season two will begin in January 2026, followed by the Bitcoin Ordinals in mid-year 2026. “It’s always a cycle, and Not Financial Advice, so gamble responsibly,” he added. Featured image from iStock images, chart from tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price is once again commanding the spotlight as bullish momentum propels the leading cryptocurrency to new all-time highs. With the price already breaking past the $122,000 mark, analysts are growing increasingly confident in the potential for even higher targets. A recently shared chart analysis by market expert CrediBull Crypto suggests that the current rally is far from—and most importantly, no major dips are expected along the way. As a result, he has forecasted that BTC could see a significant price surge to $155,000 soon. Bitcoin Price Action Clears Path To $155,000 Bitcoin’s momentum continues to gather steam, with technical indicators from CrediBull Crypto’s wave analysis report signals a bullish continuation that could propel the cryptocurrency’s price to $155,000 in the coming weeks. The analyst’s new wave count projection suggests that Bitcoin is firmly in the middle of a powerful upward leg, with minimal signs of a pullback ahead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Break Above $118,000 Just The Start, Analyst Unveils ‘Golden Number’ CrediBull Crypto’s shared price chart highlights a well-formed textbook Elliott Wave structure that suggests that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a strong Wave 3. Notably, BTC’s recent breakout above the $112,000 range shifted market sentiment in a bullish direction. What once served as resistance was quickly flipped to support, and now price action is clearing a path toward even higher ATH targets as momentum continues to build. A critical factor supporting the analyst’s optimistic BTC outlook is the daily demand zone between $98,000 and 101,000. This area served as the launch point for the previous rally above $112,000 and has remained untested ever since. With selling pressure diminishing and strength building, CrediBull Crypto believes that the price of Bitcoin will stay well above the $110,000 level. He also views a retest to $112,000 or a decline to $110,000 or below as highly unlikely under current bullish conditions. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s projected path forward places it near $135,000 by the completion of Wave 3, followed by a brief period of consolidation before a final push toward $155,000. Bitcoin Rise Above $120,000 Is Just The Beginning As Bitcoin continues its ride above $120,000, Crypto Fella, a market expert on X, has cited the potential for the cryptocurrency to enter price discovery mode and skyrocket to uncharted levels. The analyst’s chart highlights a well-defined ascending trendline beginning in early 2023, with three distinct rally zones marked by purple rectangles. Each of these phases showcases consolidation followed by an aggressive upward move, suggesting a clear pattern of accumulation and breakout. Related Reading: Market Expert Says It’s Now ‘Illegal’ To Short Bitcoin, Here’s Why The current leg of Bitcoin’s rally appears to mirror this trend from past bullish cycles but with greater force, hinting that the leading cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a parabolic surge. A key target identified in Crypto Fella’s analysis sits around the $138,206 level, which aligns with the projected continuation along the trendline. This level represents the next major psychological resistance and could mark the entrance into a new phase of price discovery. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Shaco AI, in a fresh update, highlighted that Bitcoin is showing off its moves, dancing upwards past both the 25-hour ($119,088.50) and 50-hour ($118,338.56) Simple Moving Averages. With such momentum, it’s clear BTC has decided it’s not a bear season yet. Momentum And Indicators Shaco AI’s analysis on Bitcoin dives deep into the technical indicators, and there’s no shortage of bullish energy in the air. First off, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently riding high at 86.02. That’s well into overbought territory, and as Shaco colorfully put it, “it might need to hydrate soon.” Such elevated RSI levels often signal a potential cooldown on the horizon, but for now, momentum is favoring the bulls. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day Average Funding Rate Drops – Bullish Setup Takes Shape Adding fuel to the trend is the Average Directional Index (ADX), which sits at a robust 44 points. According to Shaco AI, this reading confirms that the current uptrend is strong and well-supported. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is also reinforcing this bullish narrative, with a reading of 967.98. Shaco described it as “screaming positive vibes,” a signal that buying pressure continues to dominate. A rising MACD in conjunction with a strong ADX often paints a picture of confident market participants driving the trend with conviction. One of the most telling signs is volume. Shaco pointed out that Bitcoin’s trading volume has surged to 2704.5, a significant leap above its average of 856.81. He described this as “some serious weight lifting in buying interest,” underscoring that this isn’t a weak or speculative move — traders are putting real capital behind the rally. Support And Resistance: Bitcoin Make-Or-Break Levels The analyst went further to highlight key levels traders should closely monitor. He noted, “Key Levels Alert: Keep an eye on the resistance at $122,666.0 and support sitting firm at $116,900.05. It feels like Bitcoin is playing ‘The Floor is Lava’ with support levels!” This colorful analogy points to the importance of holding key support to maintain bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidation Continues: 2 Key Support Levels To Watch According to Shaco AI, if Bitcoin can sustain a move above the current resistance zone, traders might want to watch for a potential breakout. However, with the RSI already deep in overbought territory, there’s also the possibility that BTC may “peak too soon,” leading to a pullback or brief consolidation phase. He wrapped up the post with a reminder that while momentum is clearly favoring the bulls, it’s essential to stay cautious. “Always make well-informed decisions and manage your risk carefully,” the analyst advised, reinforcing the importance of strategic planning in a volatile market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
With the Bitcoin price rising to new all-time highs every other day, more crypto analysts have come forth with their predictions for where the pioneer cryptocurrency could be headed next. One analyst in particular points out an incredibly bullish development on the Bitcoin price chart that suggests that the rally is far from over. As the trend continues to play out, it is possible that the rise above $118,000 is only the start of the uptrend. Bitcoin Enters Full Price Discovery After clearing the resistance at $117,000, the Bitcoin price has now entered what crypto analysts are referring to as price discovery. This term refers to buyers and sellers determining the price of Bitcoin, and there seems to be a consensus that the digital asset is worth more, and this could trigger the next uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Break Above $118,000 Just The Start, Analyst Unveils ‘Golden Number’ An analysis from crypto analyst AltcoinGordon focuses on a particular resistance line that has persisted for the Bitcoin price for the last eight years. This resistance line went through the highs from both March and November 2021, and was not broken. Then again, through the nights in May 2025, and remained unbroken. However, the resistance line has finally succumbed to pressure from the bulls and has been broken through after Bitcoin made it through $117,000. This simply means that there is nothing now holding back the digital asset, allowing it to climb freely from here. Due to this, the analyst believes that this breakout is no ordinary breakout, but rather one that triggers the start of parabolas. In this case, a parabolic rally would lead the Bitcoin price above the $130,000 level if the momentum is maintained. BTC Price Discovery Is Good For Altcoins Altcoin Gordon points out that the Bitcoin price discovery is particularly good for altcoins, as they will rally harder. “Price discovery is in full effect now. And when that happens… alts go wild,” the post read. This has already started playing out as altcoins have been outperforming the Bitcoin price recently. Related Reading: Dogecoin Megaphone Pattern Confirms Price Blowup, ‘Don’t Miss This Last Rally’—Analyst According to the Altcoin Season Index by CoinMarketCap, 27 of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed the Bitcoin price over the last 90 days. This brings the index closer to the 50 top altcoins that are required to outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period to kickstart the altcoin season. When this happens, the altcoin season will be in full bloom. Once the index crosses the 50 mark, then the parabola for alts is expected to fully begin. For example, back in 2021, the Altcoin Season Index reached a score of 98 before marking the top, and this high figure has been consistence throughout the last three bull markets. Therefore, it is natural to expect that this altcoin season will follow the same trend. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin punched through a fresh record above $122,000 on the morning of 14 July, extending its month-long rally to more than 16 percent. Against that backdrop, Charles Edwards—the founder and chief executive of digital-asset hedge fund Capriole Investments—argues that the market is only “in the early stages” of a much broader liquidity-driven boom that could dominate the rest of 2025 and beyond. The Bitcoin Liquidity Supercycle In the latest Capriole newsletter, Edwards contends that “money and liquidity provided the backdrop for capital flows, and Bitcoin Treasury Companies are the funnel.” He dismisses the idea that the past fortnight’s $20,000 advance was a technical accident, pointing instead to deep macro currents that have been building for months. “The biggest Bitcoin rallies occur when the market is net short the USD,” he writes, pointing to Capriole’s proprietary “USD Positioning” gauge, which aggregates futures data across major currencies. The metric has been “deeply negative” since early summer, signalling that global investors are decisively betting against the dollar and in favour of hard assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Soar To $146K In The Next Leg Up — Analyst Explains How Another pillar is credit. BBB-rated corporate-bond spreads have been grinding tighter since the spring, a classic risk-on signal in traditional markets that, since 2020, has mapped almost tick-for-tick onto major Bitcoin up-moves. “More evidence,” Edwards notes, “that Bitcoin is a tradfi asset.” Perhaps the strongest tail-wind, however, is raw money growth. Global M3 has been expanding at an annualised nine percent clip—an historically extreme rate that Capriole says last coincided with average 12-month Bitcoin returns of roughly 460 percent. Edwards cautions that, as a multi-trillion-dollar asset today, Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat that magnitude, “but it wouldn’t be surprising to see something very substantial from here.” Capriole’s framework also draws on an historical lead-lag relationship between gold and Bitcoin. When bullion enters a meaningful breakout, Bitcoin has tended to follow three to four months later. Gold’s early-2025 surge—and its outperformance versus global equities—therefore offered “strong support for the current market’s diminishing demand for fiat money and favour of hard money,” Edwards argues. Since Capriole flagged gold’s move in April, Bitcoin has risen 28 percent. Equities, too, are offering green lights. The New York Stock Exchange advance–decline line broke to new highs last week, while Capriole’s “Equity Premium” indicator reset to zero in late May—both historically consistent with multi-month stretches of expanding risk appetite. All of those data points feed into the firm’s flagship Bitcoin Macro Index, a composite of dozens of public and proprietary variables that Capriole uses to shape trading exposures in its fund. The index “is still in strong positive growth territory,” Edwards reports, even after the coin’s latest vertical move. That suggests the underlying drivers—liquidity, risk sentiment and on-chain activity—“remain intact.” The Bitcoin Treasury-Company Flywheel Yet perhaps the most striking piece of the puzzle lies outside pure macro. Edwards highlights the emergence of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (TCs)—corporate vehicles that raise fiat capital in equity or debt markets and then deploy it into spot BTC—as the new “primary bubble dynamic of this cycle.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Soars Past $118,800—Breakout Or Brutal Bull Trap? Quarterly inflows into TCs reached $15 billion in Q2, and Capriole counts at least 145 such firms now pursuing the strategy. With their market capitalisations inflated by paper gains on balance-sheet coins, they can tap ever-larger funding rounds—a reflexive loop that Edwards believes “will likely help add over $1 trillion to Bitcoin’s market cap over the next year.” He rejects the notion that this amounts to unhealthy centralisation: “If Bitcoin is to one day become base money, it needs to scale to tens of trillions to flatten volatility. The only way that happens is mass acquisition like we are seeing today.” Edwards stresses that his analysis sits on a months-long horizon. “When Bitcoin sees huge rallies there are always strong pullbacks and local overheating,” he concedes, adding that the newsletter deliberately sidelines short-term on-chain froth to focus on the “bigger picture and driving factors for the next six months.” Still, with central-bank liquidity abundant, the dollar crowded short, credit stress muted and a structurally new pool of corporate buyers stepping in, Capriole’s conclusion is unambiguous: the liquidity tap is wide open, and the Bitcoin supercycle it feeds has only just begun. “While today’s early adopters may be seen as speculators, it will be very obvious in hindsight. After the Treasury company wave is the Government treasury wave (next cycle). We are simply riding the adoption curve which requires trillions of dollars to flow in to Bitcoin from the entities that have it in order to achieve scale,” Edwards concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $122,438. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $116,500 zone. BTC is now up over 2%, traded to a new high, and might extend gains above the $122,000 level. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $118,500 zone. The price is trading above $118,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $119,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could continue to rise if it clears the $122,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Sets New ATH Bitcoin price started a fresh increase after it cleared the $115,500 resistance zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $116,000 and $118,500 resistance. The bulls even pumped the pair above the $120,000 resistance zone. A new all-time high was formed at $122,550 and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $116,679 swing low to the $122,550 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $120,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $119,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $122,550 level. The first key resistance is near the $1123,500 level. The next resistance could be $124,000. A close above the $124,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $128,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $128,800 level. The main target could be $130,000. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $122,500 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support is near the $121,500 level. The first major support is near the $119,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $116,679 swing low to the $122,550 high. The next support is now near the $119,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $118,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $116,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $122,500, followed by $125,000. Major Resistance Levels – $121,500 and $119,000.
After hitting a new all-time high of $121,400, the Bitcoin price has started consolidating once again, although the support continues to hold. This is not out of the ordinary, as pullbacks after a major rally are quite common and could be the cool-off needed the uptrend to continue. However, while the $117,000 support has held nicely, it is possible that a deeper correction could be in the cards for the cryptocurrency before the price takes off again. Why A Bitcoin Price Crash Could Begin With the hit to new all-time highs, the weekend brought a slowdown, and this could drive the next wave of correction. Crypto analyst TehThomas explains this in a TradingView post that suggests that there is still the possibility of a short-term correction for the Bitcoin price. However, it could go deeper than expected as the price moves to retest newly formed support at $109,000 and $110,000. Related Reading: Ripple’s $21 Trillion Dream: What Capturing 20% Of SWIFT Volume Means For XRP According to the analyst, the new peaks have plunged the Bitcoin price into uncharted territory, and there would be a new wave of sells from here. Given this, the analyst advices caution as investors engage with the market and the possibility of a deeper correction arises. Furthermore, there is the formation of an ascending trendline that formed with the horizontal support. Since the trendline moves through the $111,000-$113,000 area, it suggests that the price could fall back downward to retest this level. In the case of a deeper correction, then the analyst sees a price sweep into the $110,000 levels to take out liquidity. However, this sweep would be inherently bullish since the retest would provide a bounce-off point that could lead to a “more sustainable” breakout toward all-time highs. Bullish Prospects Still At Large For BTC While the possibility of a sweep down to former peak levels remains high, it is also possible that the price does not break down and instead continues its upward trajectory. Looking back at the ascending trendline, the analyst points out that it is possible that the price does hold the trendline, reducing the impact of the correction. Such a shallow correction would indicate a continuation without a deeper correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stalls After Rally: Will It Blast Through $125,000 Or Slip Back To $110K? In this case, the Bitcoin price could resume the uptrend with the $120,000-$125,000 targets in mind. Thus, any deep correction would be expected to begin at much higher price levels. “Bitcoin is currently in price discovery, which means the structure must guide our expectations. A retest of either the trendline or former resistance could provide the next best entry,” TehThomas explained. Regardless of what the case may be, the analyst believes that as long as the price remains above the $110,000 support, then it is inherently bullish. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
After a powerful breakout last week that pushed Bitcoin into a new all-time high of $118,667, the world’s leading cryptocurrency appears to be taking a breather. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,953, slightly below its recent peak. The move followed a string of consecutive daily gains as bullish momentum swept across the crypto industry. In a technical analysis shared on the TradingView platform, crypto analyst RLinda pointed out two scenarios that may play out over the coming days and weeks, depending on how Bitcoin reacts to nearby resistance and support levels. Related Reading: Don’t Hold Back—Expert Recommends Full Stake In XRP Support Zones Could Affect Bitcoin’s Next Big Move RLinda’s technical analysis begins with identifying the significance of Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. Although Bitcoin has entered what seems to be a consolidation phase, there’s no confirmed top just yet. The market structure still favors bullish continuation, especially considering Bitcoin is just coming out of a prolonged two-month consolidation zone and entering a realization phase. According to the 1-hour candlestick price chart, Bitcoin is currently trading just above a support area below $117,500. If Bitcoin fails to hold this zone, the leading cryptocurrency could kick off a cascade of corrections that could drive the price to $115,500, then potentially to $114,300, and even back to the previous all-time high of $111,800. Below that, the 0.5 and 0.705 Fibonacci levels around $113,031 and $111,960 respectively may act as temporary cushions. The last major defensive buy zone is around $110,400, where bulls may step in for a bounce. Basically, what this means is that if Bitcoin loses the support level at $115,500, it could slip back to $110,000 before encountering another strong buy support zone. Image From TradingView: RLinda Bitcoin To $125K, But It Must Breach Resistance First On the other hand, Bitcoin can still push above $118,000 and increase to $125,000, but only under certain conditions. The condition of the rally’s continuation depends primarily on Bitcoin registering a decisive daily close above $118,400 and $118,900. In her words, a daily close above these price levels would hint at a “breakout of structure.” This, in turn, would confirm a transition from consolidation into another impulsive phase upward. In essence, both the bearish and bullish outlooks depend on how Bitcoin reacts at any of the important zones, either support at $116,700 or resistance above $118,400 before making a directional move. However, it is important to note that the consolidation after last week’s rally could last for weeks or even months, much like we’ve seen in previous rallies this cycle. According to the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s current level of long-term profitability sentiment is at 0.69. This is notably below the 0.75 mark associated with euphoric market conditions, despite Bitcoin having just printed a new all-time high. Image From X: Glassnode Related Reading: Analyst Sounds The Alarm: Shiba Inu Primed For Over 1,500% Breakout Bitcoin spent around 228 days above the 0.75 euphoria threshold in the previous bull market cycle. In contrast, this current cycle has only seen about 30 days above that level, which suggests long-term holders have not yet fully exited into profit and the leading cryptocurrency hasn’t reached overheated conditions. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Over the last month, Bitcoin ranged within the $100,000 — $110,000 price region until its recent breakout to reach a new all-time high. On-chain data show that a shift in BTC holder behavior may have played a significant role in the flagship cryptocurrency’s recent price action. LTHs Begin Distributing, But STHs Accumulate In a July 12 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Boris explained how a shift in Bitcoin holder activity has affected the market over the past months. This explanation was based on indicators measuring the Accumulation Vs Distribution of Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH). For these two holder categories, the metric tracks and analyzes wallet behavior to determine whether they are increasing or decreasing their Bitcoin holdings over time. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Records: What Miners and Leverage Traders Are Doing Behind the Scenes For the long-term holders, the chart above shows how accumulation grew from the later days of May to the end of June. This is represented by the growing green graphs over the red. Within the same timeframe, the chart below shows short-term holders were represented more by the red graphs than the green, indicating more distribution than accumulation in the past month. Boris credited the LTHs for Bitcoin’s survival above the $100,000 support zone. “Despite heavy STH distribution and retail selling pressure, BTC defended the 100K support — a clear sign of structural accumulation led by LTH wallets,” the on-chain analyst said. According to Boris, the short-term holders were observed to have sold more than 563,000 BTC as Bitcoin continued to range. As this happened, the Long-Term holders steadily accumulated Bitcoin, and this absorbed most of the selling pressure from STHs. However, this dynamic seems to have reversed very recently. The online pundit reported that the Long-Term Holders started distributing their Bitcoin holdings. This sell-off from the LTHs may be a result of profit-taking, as the cryptocurrency’s upward drift would necessitate. On the other hand, the short-term holders have started to accumulate Bitcoin. This trend seen with this reactive group of investors indicates renewed retail interest or speculative entry amidst the current bullish rally. Boris further inferred that this handover from LTH support to STH support must have fuelled Bitcoin’s latest breakout, as short-term momentum is injected into the market. What’s Next For Bitcoin? While this rotation of supply between holder classes may not be strange in crypto market cycles, the scale and timing of this switch suggest that Bitcoin’s price action holds more interesting rallies in the near future. However, if the short-term buying pressure should taper, the absence of long-term support may cause a lower support to be retested. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $117,300, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Soars Past $118,800—Breakout Or Brutal Bull Trap? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
After going on an impressive run to close the week, the Bitcoin price has become relatively steady over this weekend. The premier cryptocurrency has shown some signs of indecision and continued to move sideways within the $117,000 and $118,000 range. According to a prominent online pundit, the Bitcoin price might be at a critical juncture that could decide its future over the next few weeks. Insights from a technical analysis model suggest that the price of BTC might run up to an unprecedented high of $143,000 once it overcomes the next resistance level. BTC Needs To Break This Resistance Level To Continue Rally In a July 12 post on social media platform X, Alphractal founder & CEO Joao Wedson revealed that the Bitcoin price faces significant resistance between $118,900 and $120,000. This price evaluation is based on the Bitcoin Power Law model, which provides a mathematical description of BTC’s historical price trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Signals More Gains Ahead Despite New ATH – Analyst The Bitcoin Power Law model estimates the network effect and adoption curve without speculation. Using this framework, the pricing model provides long-term support and resistance levels or “bands” on the Bitcoin price chart. Wedson revealed that the Power Law model indicates that the Bitcoin price faces significant resistance between the $118,900 and $120,000 region. According to the on-chain analyst, the market needs to breach the Alpha Price — which lies somewhere around $119,300. For context, the Alpha Price refers to a major inflection point in the Power Law model and a level that the Bitcoin price needs to break and stay above to enter the next significant phase of the bull cycle. In essence, the BTC price must witness a sustained break above $119,300 to continue its rally. Wedson mentioned that the price of BTC will need to show resilience in order to breach the psychological $120,000 level. However, it might need to consolidate first and perhaps take some long traders out of the market before overcoming the $120,000 level, the on-chain analyst noted. According to Wedson, a sustained breach of the $120,000 level will signal the beginning of an even much bigger rally for the market leader. The on-chain analyst put the target for this rally at between $143,000 and $146,000, marking the Bitcoin price top in this cycle. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $117,530, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Nevertheless, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by nearly 9% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: No Mania Yet: Bitcoin ATH Lacks Hype, Suggesting Further Upside Potential Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
After a near-excellent start to the month of July, Bitcoin has performed even more impressively over the past few days. The premier cryptocurrency, after a brief period of sideways momentum earlier this week, has attained a new all-time-high valuation at a price close to $119,000. Unsurprisingly, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a wave of optimism — an inference still heavily backed by the latest on-chain revelation. Bitcoin Market Sentiment Shifts Bullish In a July 11 post on social media platform X, cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal delved into the current price action of Bitcoin, offering insights into the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Soars Past $118,800—Breakout Or Brutal Bull Trap? The firm’s on-chain observation revolves around the Aggregated Liquidation Levels Heatmap (7 Days) metric, which visualizes price zones with high concentrations of long or short liquidations over a span of 7 days, and the Aggregated Liquidation Levels Heatmap (1 month) which does the same, except that this covers a monthly timeframe. After the most recent Bitcoin price rally to a new all-time high, all of the overleveraged bears had their market positions wiped out. Aided by the short squeeze, which usually follows such large liquidation events, the flagship cryptocurrency still retains its strong bullish momentum and continues to surge. According to Alphractal, the aggregation liquidation levels across different timeframes now show that most current leveraged positions are betting on the Bitcoin price. As the market continues to ascend the charts, investor optimism will turn more positive, which may further push more traders to open long positions in the BTC futures market. However, Alphractal warned against the inclination to be recklessly involved in the current bullish market. “If, for any reason, the price drops $10,000 back to the $107,000 zone, it could be the bulls’ turn to face massive liquidations,” the analytics firm said. The firm went further, explaining that a Bitcoin price drop of that magnitude would have a negative impact on the market optimism. On the bright side, Alphractal also mentioned that such an occurrence could offer new accumulation opportunities in the near future. Still on market optimism, a drop in Bitcoin’s value by $10,000 might lead to a phenomenon referred to as a Long squeeze, where the price of Bitcoin continues to plummet with increased momentum. A long squeeze typically occurs when the falling price of a cryptocurrency (in this case, Bitcoin) forces traders with long positions to sell their assets either to cut losses or to break even. This contributes to the already present bearish momentum and sends the BTC price further south. Amidst Bitcoin’s current rally, Alphractal ultimately advised that traders leverage wisely and with caution, as the market’s next action stands at an unpredictable zone. Bitcoin Price At A Glance Still showing signs of healthy bullish momentum, Bitcoin, as of press time, is valued at around $118,145. Data from CoinGecko shows that the flagship cryptocurrency has jumped by more than 3.34% in the last 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Falls: 9 Factors To Watch For That Says The Altcoin Season Has Begun Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has rallied massively over the past seven days by posting an impressive price gain of nearly 9% after climbing from around $108,300 to almost $118,800. This move was quite surprising, particularly as the process saw Bitcoin clearing its previous all-time high from late May by breaking above $111,970. But according to Bitcoin technical analyst CryptoCon, this breakout may just be the beginning. In a recent post on the social media platform X, CryptoCon revealed a long-term cycle pattern that points to a more ambitious price target for Bitcoin. Analyst Unveils BTC’s Golden Number For This Cycle In a recent post on social media platform X, CryptoCon revealed a long-term cycle pattern that points to a more ambitious target for Bitcoin. His analysis is based on the 5.618 Fibonacci extension, which is a number he says has perfectly aligned with every prior cycle top. The projection opens up the possibility of whether Bitcoin’s current move marks the start of another parabolic run. Related Reading: Market Expert Says It’s Now ‘Illegal’ To Short Bitcoin, Here’s Why CryptoCon’s technical chart analysis builds on the recurring 5.618 Fibonacci extension level in previous market cycles. The analyst shows how Bitcoin’s previous tops have fallen within striking distance of this precise extension by measuring the move of each market cycle and applying this golden ratio. The chart shown below features the $30.84 peak in June 2011, the $1,205 top in November 2013, the $18,702 high from December 2017, and the peak of $63,839 in November 2021. Each of these market tops, as shown in the Bitcoin multi-year price chart below, converged on the same 5.618 multiple from their preceding bear market lows. Now, using this same approach in the ongoing cycle, CryptoCon projected that the next major step for Bitcoin is somewhere between $170,000 and $180,000. Particularly, the 5.618 Fibonacci extension points to a “Golden Number” of $184,181 for Bitcoin’s price in this cycle. Bitcoin Price Compression Is About To Expand Violently Several major forces appear to have contributed to BTC’s recent surge in the past 48 hours. A significant short squeeze earlier in the week reportedly wiped out over $1 billion in bearish positions. At the same time, US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered over $1 billion in daily inflows in the past two consecutive days. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Breakdown — Here’s The Best Time To Buy In his X post, CryptoCon also commented on the current state of Bitcoin’s chart: “All the boring price action is coming to a squeeze; it can’t stay that way forever.” This observation reflects the long period of tight, sideways trading between $105,000 and $108,000 that Bitcoin experienced in the previous two weeks. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,762, retracing slightly after reaching its most recent all-time high of $118,667, according to CoinGecko data. Other crypto analysts now find themselves watching the $130,000 region as another zone of consolidation activity on the way to the possible cycle peak. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s summer rally accelerated in the early hours of 11 July, when the benchmark cryptocurrency sliced through $118,000 and printed exchange highs that peaked above $118,800, depending on venue data. The spike wiped out an estimated $1.25 billion in short positions within a single trading day, according to CoinGlass figures. Bitcoin Bull Trap Or Breakout? Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards took to X as the breakout unfolded. “New all-time highs beget new ATHs. It’s usually unwise to ignore a major breakout like this, until invalidated,” he wrote, adding that corporate treasury demand has “grown exponentially, with dozens of new companies popping up in recent months.” Edwards’ base-case projection calls for a further 50–70 percent advance over the next six months—roughly $170,000–$196,000. Related Reading: Research Predicts $160,000 Bitcoin By EOY—If Treasury Firms Hold His focus on treasuries is backed by hard data. Public companies added a record 159,107 BTC in Q2—pushing aggregate corporate holdings above 847,000 BTC, or about four percent of max supply. Corporate Bitcoin acquisitions have even outpaced ETF net inflows. Matthew Sigel, head of digital-asset research at VanEck, framed Bitcoin’s trajectory within a broader macro and policy backdrop. “The natural course for Bitcoin remains higher, driven by persistent US debt and deficit problems, demographic tailwinds, a weakening dollar, growing momentum around Fed rate cuts, and the potential for a new Fed chair next year,” he wrote on X. Sigel also highlighted Capitol Hill’s looming “Crypto Week,” where stablecoin legislation is widely viewed as the most passable of several digital-asset bills. Those developments, he argues, make $180,000 “very much in play for 2025.” Law-makers appear to share the sense of urgency. A press statement from the House Financial Services Committee confirms that the week of 14 July will be dedicated to advancing the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act and the GENIUS Act. Passage would establish the first comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins and market structure, a change Sigel says could “unlock wide-open capital markets” for the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is One Candle Away From $141,300 Breakout, Chart Master Warns Spot Bitcoin ETFs are hardly idle: net inflows into BlackRock’s iShares fund alone have pushed its holdings past 700,000 BTC in the 18 months since launch. Yet Edwards and Sigel both note that treasury companies have become the marginal buyer in 2025. The dynamic creates what Edwards calls a “cap-raising flywheel,” as firms showcase outperforming share prices—up nearly 60 percent year-to-date for the treasury cohort—when courting investors. Notably, the rally is unfolding against a supportive macro backdrop. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a Dallas Fed audience he is “open to cutting the policy rate in July,” arguing current settings are “too tight” given waning inflation pressures. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continued his attacks on Fed chair Jerome Powell over the past weeks, demanding immediate rate cuts. Trump’s tariff escalation also seems to fade out, supporting the Bitcoin rally. Notwithstanding euphoric headlines, technicians warn that momentum must sustain above $110,000 to avoid a failed-breakout pattern. “This theory would be weakened with closes below $110K and invalidated below $105K,” Edwards concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $117,854. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price is holding firm despite growing chatter about the end of its market dominance. However, analysts are turning their attention not to Bitcoin’s price but to its waning market share as signs that altcoins may finally be ready to take center stage in what could become a full-blown altcoin season. A post on X has highlighted a specific breakdown structure in BTC dominance, which is linked to nine factors indicating that the altcoin season has begun. Technical Factors Showing Fall Of Bitcoin Dominance According to the analyst, Bitcoin dominance reached a peak of exactly 66% on June 27, 2025, a date he calls significant for its esoteric code 434 and its occurrence on a new moon. From a technical perspective, the 66% mark coincided precisely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, a region many traders consider a reversal zone. More importantly, several warning signals are flashing for Bitcoin traders. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Not Remotely Close, Bitcoin Dominance Still Too High: Market Expert Says The analyst’s post on the social media platform X features a few price charts to emphasize how the Bitcoin dominance might be fading, alongside nine factors. From a purely technical lens, the dominance chart looks increasingly exhausted. The first factor is the most recent highest monthly RSI in the history of the Bitcoin dominance chart. This event has created an overbought condition, and the next outlook is a possible crash of the RSI. The MACD, in fact, has already crossed into bearish territory. Furthermore, the histogram has turned negative, and the faster line has moved below the slower one, which is a classic signal of an impending downtrend. Another interesting factor is that Bitcoin dominance has now broken a key diagonal support line that held firm through much of 2024 and 2025, which is another possible structural breakdown. Fundamental Factors Show Strong Rotation Into Altcoin Pairs While the technical picture is deteriorating, the fundamentals are also stacking in favor of altcoins very quickly. The first fundamental factor is the importance of upcoming altcoin spot ETFs, which have the possibility to redirect institutional flows from Bitcoin into Ethereum, XRP, and others. Related Reading: Time To Forget Altcoin Season? Bitcoin Dominance At This Level Is This Only Hope ETFs such as the Spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana ETFs could rapidly increase inflows into the rest of the crypto market, similar to how Spot Bitcoin ETFs caused massive inflows into Bitcoin. The analyst also highlighted the likelihood of upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would tilt market conditions in favor of altcoins over Bitcoin. Momentum has also begun to shift in some trading pairs, particularly XRP/BTC and ETH/BTC, both of which are showing reversal signs from critical levels. The XRP/BTC chart displays repeated failed attempts to break above 0.0000215 BTC, a horizontal resistance that has now been tested five times on the daily candlestick timeframe chart. At the time of writing, the XRP/BTC pair has returned to this level yet again, and based on this pattern, any clean breakout here could confirm a decisive rotation into XRP. Likewise, Ethereum has begun to recover from long-term oversold conditions when measured against Bitcoin. The rounded bottom pattern forming on the ETH/BTC weekly chart shows a reversal from undervaluation, which in past cycles has caused substantial gains for Ethereum relative to BTC. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has officially broken through its previous all-time high of $112,000, surging to $118,000 just hours ago and entering uncharted territory for the first time since late May. The breakout confirms bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation and failed attempts, with price action now showing clear strength. With the psychological and technical barrier of $112K cleared, many analysts believe this move could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s next expansive rally. Related Reading: Altcoins Jump Off Critical Support Level – Relief Or Reversal? Bulls are firmly in control, and on-chain metrics support this breakout narrative. According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands currently stand at 2.25. Historically, Bitcoin enters the overheated zone around 3.0 or higher, suggesting there is still room for growth before reaching excessive valuation territory. This metric, which measures the deviation between market price and realized value, helps identify when BTC is overbought or undervalued relative to past performance. At current levels, the data points to continued upside potential without major overheating concerns, fueling confidence that this breakout could extend further. Bitcoin Enters Expansion Phase As Market Eyes $130K After weeks of tight consolidation below the $110,000 mark, Bitcoin has finally broken out, signaling the start of a new market phase. The breakout above previous highs has reignited investor optimism, not only for BTC but also for the broader altcoin market, with many altcoins now pushing above key resistance levels for the first time in months. This move comes amid growing anticipation of a weakening US dollar and renewed inflationary pressures as Washington adopts looser fiscal policies. The market is increasingly pricing in the effects of tax cuts, high government spending, and dovish political rhetoric—all of which create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Still, the macro backdrop is not without risks. US Treasury yields remain elevated, flashing warnings of underlying systemic stress in credit markets. This tension underscores the fragility of the current rally and the importance of monitoring fundamental shifts. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights using the MVRV oscillator, a model that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. According to Adler, historical data over the last four years suggests that when MVRV reaches 2.75, Bitcoin tends to face its first wave of meaningful selling pressure. If the same pattern holds true in this cycle, Bitcoin could reach approximately $130,900 before seeing notable profit-taking activity. While the current MVRV reading remains below that threshold, the model offers a clear signal of where long-term holders may begin offloading. Until then, the breakout sets the stage for a potential leg higher, with bulls now in control, pushing toward price discovery and a possible test of the $130K zone. Related Reading: Ethereum Back At Range Highs: Breakout Above $2,800 Could Ignite Altseason BTC Enters Uncharted Territory With Strong Momentum Bitcoin has officially broken into price discovery after blasting through its all-time high resistance near $112,000. The 3-day chart shows a massive bullish candle pushing BTC up to $118,683, representing an 8.94% gain in the last session. This breakout is the first clear sign of a strong bullish continuation after weeks of sideways consolidation below key resistance. The chart highlights a textbook breakout structure. BTC respected the $103,600 and $109,300 support zones multiple times throughout May and June before finally gaining enough momentum to pierce through the upper resistance. The recent surge came with a noticeable spike in volume, adding confidence to the breakout’s sustainability. Moving averages also confirm the bullish trend. The 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines remain aligned upward with increasing separation, suggesting that market structure remains strong and trend continuation is likely. Bitcoin is now trading well above all major moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day Average Funding Rate Drops – Bullish Setup Takes Shape With no historical resistance levels above, BTC enters a price discovery phase. The next psychological target for bulls will likely be $120,000, followed by the MVRV-based resistance level around $130,900. As long as BTC holds above $112K, the momentum remains decisively in favor of the bulls. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
A sweeping new research report by Ben Harvey and Will Clemente III, commissioned by market maker Keyrock, projects that Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by the end of 2025—but only if the capital structure supporting Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs) remains intact. The research, “BTC Treasuries Uncovered: Premiums, Leverage, and the Sustainability of Proxy Exposure,” dissects the capital structures, market impact, and debt profiles of the fast-growing cohort of “Bitcoin Treasury Companies” (BTC-TCs), led by Strategy (the renamed MicroStrategy). The Impact Of Bitcoin Treasury Firms Harvey and Clemente open with a startling figure: “Bitcoin Treasury Companies have accumulated around 725,000 BTC, equivalent to 3.64 percent of the entire BTC supply.” Much of that hoard sits with Strategy’s 597,000-coin trove, but the analysts track more than a dozen follow-on players—from Marathon Digital and Metaplanet to newer entrants such as Twenty One Capital—whose combined exposure now outstrips US spot-ETF holdings by more than half. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is One Candle Away From $141,300 Breakout, Chart Master Warns Yet the report’s headline forecast is explicitly conditional. Keyrock’s bull case assigns a thirty-percent probability that global liquidity remains flush, institutional demand accelerates, and Bitcoin rallies fifty percent past today’s levels, “pushing BTC to over $160 k by EOY.” That outcome rests on the fragile flywheel of net-asset-value premiums: BTC-TC equities still trade, on average, at a seventy-three-percent premium to the dollar value of the coins they custody. Those premiums let boards issue new shares “accretively,” convert sentiment into fresh BTC, and—crucially—service the $33.7 billion in debt and preferred stock the sector has rung up to fund its buying binge. No company illustrates the reflexive loop better than Strategy. Since August 2020, Michael Saylor has driven Bitcoin-per-share (BPS) up eleven-fold, an annualized sixty-three-percent run rate that dwarfs the 6.7 percent CAGR needed to justify the firm’s current ninety-one-percent NAV premium. “If an investor believes that Strategy’s BPS growth rates will hold long-term,” the authors contend, “holding MSTR would be far more beneficial in BTC terms than holding spot BTC.” Still, that calculus assumes the equity premium stays afloat; if sentiment turns, dilution flips from accretive to punitive overnight. Debt maturities pose the next stress point. BTC-TCs owe a wall of convertible notes in 2027-28. Harvey and Clemente calculate that Strategy alone has issued $8.2 billion of the cohort’s $9.5 billion in debt; Marathon follows at $1.3 billion. Most instruments carry zero-to-low coupons and conversion prices well below current share levels, but a deep Bitcoin drawdown could drive equities under those strikes, forcing firms to repay in cash or refinance at far harsher terms. “Since many BTC-TC valuations are tightly correlated to Bitcoin price performance,” the authors warn, “a sharp BTC drawdown could drive down equity value, increasing the risk that conversion thresholds are breached.” Related Reading: Last Time This Happened, Bitcoin Jumped $50,000—Is History Repeating? The report splits the universe into cash-flow-generative names such as Metaplanet, CoinShares, and Boyaa Interactive—each with eight or more quarters of runway—and capital-dependent players like Marathon, Nakamoto, and DeFi Technologies, which could face dilution above three percent per quarter merely to stay solvent if premiums persist. Should those premiums compress, equity issuance “becomes purely dilutive,” and treasury companies could be forced to sell Bitcoin, undermining the proxy thesis that justifies their existence. The Base Case Keyrock’s base case, to which it assigns the highest probability, envisions Bitcoin finishing 2025 around $135,000, with NAV premiums cooling into a thirty-to-sixty-percent range. In that environment, well-managed treasuries still out-perform spot, but the leverage trade loses its shine. The bear scenario—assigned the lowest but non-trivial odds—combines a twenty-percent Bitcoin drawdown with a glut of new treasury listings that flood the market with supply. In that world, premiums vanish, refinancing windows slam shut, and “the entire investment case for BTC-TCs comes under pressure.” Harvey and Clemente do not dismiss the BTC-TC model; rather, they frame it as a high-beta overlay that amplifies both the upside and the solvency risk inherent in Bitcoin itself. They credit Saylor’s “Bitcoin yield” thesis—using premium-funded share issuance to compound coin holdings—as a demonstrably effective strategy to date, but caution that it relies on a delicate equilibrium of bullish sentiment, cheap capital, and meticulous execution. “The premium to NAV is of the utmost importance here,” the study concludes, “assuming a BTC-TC doesn’t have a core operating business that can cover debt payments, or is entirely free of debt payments altogether.” Whether Bitcoin can sprint to $160,000 by 31 December hinges less on hash-rate projections or macro modeling than on the continued faith of equity investors willing to pay a dollar-fifty for a dollar of embedded BTC. If those investors blink—if premiums fade or convertible maturities collide with a broad risk-off shift—the leverage that has propelled treasury companies to date could flip, turning “one of the best performing equities on the planet” into the market’s most crowded exit. For now, Keyrock’s research leaves readers with a simple countdown: hold the line, and the path to price discovery remains intact; lose it, and the proxy trade could unwind long before the New Year’s fireworks. At press time, BTC traded at $117,788. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com