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Bitcoin’s price has shown strength over the past 48 hours and is now trading in the mid-$90,000s after days of consolidating around $90,000. Technical analyst Jackis presented a fair assessment of potential paths for Bitcoin’s next significant rise in the context of near-term consolidation and attempted breakouts above $95,000, outlining distinct scenarios for both bulls and bears. Both Outlooks Have A Case, But Price Has To Confirm Bitcoin is now back to trading above $95,000 after a 3.1% increase in the past 24 hours. Price action in the past 24 hours alone shows that the outlook might be bullish. However, as it stands, Bitcoin’s price action has reached a point where traders should let the chart tell them what’s next.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Is Not In At $126,000, According To The Business Cycle, Here’s Why According to a technical analysis from a crypto analyst known as Jackis on the social media platform X, arguments alone are not enough here because there are both good bullish & bearish arguments out there for Bitcoin. In his words, he has watched similar-looking price action resolve in opposite directions across different cycles.  The chart below shows how Bitcoin price action is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern on the 8-hour candlestick timeframe chart. However, examples show how this same formation led to an upward reversal for Bitcoin in the past and then also a bearish continuation for Ethereum in the past. Based on his read, he currently sees more reasons for downward continuation, and until the market proves otherwise, the active trend is bearish. Both bullish and bearish outlooks have a case, but price action has to confirm. Bullish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin Once price breaks out in either direction, the follow-through can be fast, which means being stubborn on the wrong side can be costly.  Related Reading: Why The $2.9 Billion Bitcoin Whale Buy Could Spell Doom For The Market On the bullish side, Jackis highlighted that a breakout toward $96,000 is the kind of move that would confirm a bullish continuation. He added that a push through $96,000 at this point could open the path to $107,000 or higher. On the other hand, Jackis’ bearish trigger is tied to the rising support line. Price action can look constructive right up until the trendline snaps, and that’s the point where downside continuation becomes the higher-probability route in this framework. If Bitcoin were to lose the lower trendline of the ascending trend, then it would likely drift back to the April 24 lows. The April lows refer to how Bitcoin rejected above $106,100 in January 2025 and entered into a multi-month correction that eventually bottomed at a low around $76,000.  This means that a clean breakdown could change the conversation away from range chop in the mid-$90,000s to a reset. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $92,500. BTC is trading above $95,000 and attempting a close for another increase to $100k. Bitcoin started a decent increase above $92,000 and $94,500. The price is trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $94,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Gains Over 4% Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $90,500 support and started a fresh increase. BTC was able to settle above $92,000 and $92,500. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls were able to push the price above $93,500. Finally, the price spiked above $96,000. A high was formed at $96,476, and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $96,476 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $95,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $94,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $96,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $96,500 level. The next resistance could be $96,800. A close above the $96,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $98,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $98,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $99,000 and $100,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $96,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $95,000 level. The first major support is near the $94,500 level. The next support is now near the $93,200 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $89,995 swing low to the $96,476 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $92,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $91,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $95,000, followed by $94,500. Major Resistance Levels – $96,000 and $96,800.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a notable surge, approaching its nearest resistance level at $94,000, a barrier that has thus far hindered the cryptocurrency’s return to significant milestones, including the coveted $100,000 mark. Despite this, experts remain optimistic about new all-time highs for Bitcoin within the year. Potential Bitcoin Return To $100,000 Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, commented on the recent price movements, suggesting that the uptick is more likely a reflexive response from investors who are rebalancing their portfolios after last year’s heavy sell-off, rather than an indication of a fundamental trend shift.  “The bounce in Bitcoin we’re seeing this week is most likely a reflexive move by investors rather than something indicative of a major shift in trend,” Puckrin explained. Related Reading: New Hope For Crypto: Senators Introduce Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act Currently, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum after rejecting the $94,700 resistance level. Puckrin warns that a failure to break through this barrier could lead to another decline in value. However, if BTC does breach this resistance, he believes a return to the $100,000 level may be achievable.  Looking further ahead, Puckrin anticipates another all-time high in 2026, although he advises caution regarding the extent of that potential rise. “In the longer term, I expect to see another all-time high this year, but it won’t be as dramatic as some are predicting, and the possibility of a reversal into bear territory remains very real,” he added. Key Resistance Level Contrasting this optimism, some analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin’s immediate prospects. Vince Stanzione, CEO and founder of First Information, maintains a bearish outlook, arguing that the risk-reward ratio at current prices is unappealing.  Stanzione evaluates Bitcoin against gold rather than the dollar, asserting that Bitcoin has considerable ground to cover. “I was negative on Bitcoin throughout 2025, and I’m sticking with that view in 2026,” he noted.  He pointed out that while the market’s leading cryptocurrency experienced a decline of about 6% by the end of 2025, gold surged by 66%, resulting in a significant disparity in performance. Related Reading: Coinbase Mulls Exiting Support For Crypto Market Structure Bill Ahead Of January 15 Deadline Stanzione believes gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin this year, predicting that the digital asset will close the year at a lower price. “There are no compelling reasons to buy Bitcoin at the current $92,000 level,” he stated.  Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial price level for Bitcoin in the short term, stating on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that $94,555 is the “bullish trigger” for the cryptocurrency.  Should Bitcoin break through this level, Martinez indicated that the next target could be $105,291, representing a potential 12% increase. This move would significantly narrow the gap to the all-time high of over $126,000 reached last October. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market have experienced sharp price swings and declines since 2025. Because of this volatility, a crypto analyst has warned that the market correction could intensify further in 2026. In a detailed analysis, he outlines a bearish scenario for Bitcoin, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency could soon face another price crash amid persistent downward pressure in the broader stock market.  Analyst Warns Of Major Bitcoin And Stock Market Plunge Market analyst Doctor Profit has raised concerns about the direction of the crypto and traditional markets, warning that both Bitcoin and stocks are currently in a severe bear market. In a technical breakdown on X this Monday, the expert highlighted three major bearish setups forming simultaneously in Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Why The $2.9 Billion Bitcoin Whale Buy Could Spell Doom For The Market He highlighted a massive Bearish Divergence on the weekly and monthly charts, a clear bearish flag signaling a potential drop toward $70,000, and a possible Head and Shoulder pattern that could still play out. While he acknowledged that Bitcoin could still experience short-term price increases and briefly rise toward the $97,000-$107,000 range due to strong liquidity, he said that the ultimate target remains $70,000.  Doctor Profit emphasized that Bitcoin’s potential decline to $70,000 could go two ways. It could either break out of the bearish flag to that downside target or complete the Head and Shoulders pattern before reaching $70,000. He stated that he will not add new short positions at current prices but plans to increase them aggressively from $115,000 to $125,000 if Bitcoin moves into the $97,000 to $107,000 range.  The analyst painted a similarly grim picture for the stock market. He said he was “ultra-bearish” on both Bitcoin and the financial system. He also noted that the banks are stressed and that forced liquidations in precious metals like Silver are creating ripples across the broader market.  Additionally, Doctor Profit noted that insider activity shows clear signs of panic among investors, with record levels of selling since August 2025. Because of this, the analyst believes that the market is heading for a 2008-style crash. Consequently, he has concluded that the current market conditions are too extreme.   On the bright side, Doctor Profit said that although he maintains short positions on stocks and Bitcoin, he remains bullish on Gold and Silver. He explained that any upside to the $97,000-$107,000 range will prompt him to increase his short exposure and roll spot profits for BTC from $85,000 into these positions.  Crypto Markets Brace For Key US Decisions Toward the end of his analysis, Doctor Profit discussed upcoming events that could influence Bitcoin and the broader financial markets this week. He stated that the US CPI inflation forecast of 2.7% will be released this Tuesday. Other than this, the rest of the week is expected to have few market-moving events.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hits Crash Line, But This Time Is Not Random Doctor Profit has also highlighted January 15 as an important date because US lawmakers will vote on the CLARITY Act. He explained that if the bill passes, it will move closer to becoming law, setting clear rules and oversight for the crypto market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In an era marked by rising inflation, Bitcoin was framed as a radical experiment in digital cash. However, as the global economic landscape has shifted, the narrative around BTC has changed. It is now being discussed as a modern savings tool designed for a world where traditional savings are steadily losing their purchasing power. Normalisation Of Bitcoin As A Savings Asset A common framing of Bitcoin today is that it is a savings technology, digital gold, and something to hold, rather than use. According to Ben SAN’s post on X, that framing has become incomplete and ultimately wrong. This is because BTC is not meant to sit alongside fiat as another savings vehicle, but to replace fiat as a monetary base and a financial base that cannot be used or function as money. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Being Absorbed By Powerful Financial Players — What This Means However, for BTC to operate as a form of finance, it has to be usable at scale. That usability at scale implies execution, settlement abstraction, fast interactions, and cost-efficient transactions. BTC layer 1 is designed for finality and neutrality, not to satisfy these requirements, and it shouldn’t be. This is why BTC needs layer 2s to operate as money. “Once you accept that Bitcoin needs L2s to be usable as money, you stop asking whether alts are competing with Bitcoin and start asking whether they are serving Bitcoin,” the expert stated. If acceptance of altcoins is ever possible in the BTC-first community, it won’t come from alternative monetary assets. Instead, the acceptance of the altcoins will only come from systems that keep BTC as the unit of account and native asset, while extending its usability crucially without weakening its guarantees.  In these cases, auxiliary tokens may be introduced, but only where BTC is structurally incapable of performing the required coordination or incentive functions around expressiveness and yield. Furthermore, any non-BTC asset that has a legitimate chance of being accepted within the community will earn that legitimacy by filling those gaps in a way BTC itself cannot fulfill. History Shows What Happens After These Bitcoin Buys Crypto analyst Mattertrades highlighted that Bitcoin is trading above the weekly resistance, and the path is slow and clear. This setup is a result of Michael Saylor stepping in this week with his largest purchase since July, acquiring $1.5 billion worth of BTC. The last time he did this, BTC surged to $126,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Remains Weak: Setting The Stage For Long-Term Accumulation At the same time, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)-related news for Strategy was very bullish, and it actually attracted more buyers. Mattertrades concluded that this is how a bullish case quietly forms. If Saylor’s purchases bring in more buyers, reflexivity will begin because when he starts accumulating such large amounts again, other players will follow suit. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Fidelity Labs managing partner Parth Gargava says bitcoin may be transitioning away from its familiar, halving-linked four-year rhythm and into something closer to a “supercycle”, a regime that could keep prices elevated for longer and make drawdowns less severe, if structural demand continues to build. Speaking in Fidelity’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook for 2026 video, Gargava anchored the discussion in the cycle framework many market participants have used for years: peaks arriving roughly a year and a half after each halving. “Traditionally, what we have seen is Bitcoin has had this four-year cycle,” he said, adding that the pattern has been “highly correlated to Bitcoin’s halving events.” He pointed to the 2016 halving followed by a peak in December 2017 near $20,000, and the 2020 halving followed by another peak in 2021 about 18 months later. That history matters because it frames the debate around the most recent halving in April 2024. Gargava acknowledged the straightforward inference some investors make from prior cycles: “So maybe we are past that peak price.” But he positioned that view as only one side of the argument, highlighting a competing thesis that the market’s structure is evolving. Related Reading: Bitcoin HODLer Selloff Ending? LTH Outflows Decline “On the other side, you’re also seeing a lot of arguments around how we might have entered into a supercycle as opposed to what we have seen in the past four years,” Gargava said. “And what a super cycle really means is you might have more prolonged highs, longer highs, and shallower dips.” Gargava credited Fidelity Digital Assets’ research team for outlining what he called the “super cycle mechanism,” and suggested an analogy to the commodities market in the 2000s. The key point was not that bitcoin would mechanically copy commodities, but that a sustained, multi-year bid can alter how markets behave, extending expansions and compressing the depth of selloffs. JUST IN: $5 trillion Fidelity talks about how #Bitcoin might have entered a “supercycle” Bullish ???? pic.twitter.com/IUv3GVHwEW — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 12, 2026 Three Forces That Could Push Bitcoin Into A Supercycle He outlined three drivers he believes could underpin that kind of regime shift. First is “steady buy-in by institutions focused on ETFs,” which Gargava framed as persistent demand rather than episodic speculative bursts. In his telling, ETFs can function as a channel that keeps incremental capital flowing even when sentiment softens, potentially changing the market’s typical post-peak unwind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $92,000 As DOJ Subpoenas Escalate Trump-Powell Fight Second is policy. Gargava pointed to “pro-crypto policies” in the US as a supportive backdrop, implying that a friendlier regulatory stance could reduce headline risk and encourage broader participation from investors and intermediaries that previously stayed on the sidelines. Third is market maturation and changing correlations. “We’re also seeing how the crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and precious metals,” he said. The implication is that bitcoin’s trading behavior may be becoming less captive to traditional risk-asset moves and the simple “digital gold” narrative, an evolution that could matter for positioning, hedging, and macro sensitivity. Notably, Gargava did not claim the four-year cycle is definitively broken. Instead, he presented a live question for 2026: whether bitcoin continues to follow a post-halving path that culminates in a familiar, sharp boom-and-bust pattern, or whether structural forces: ETF-driven institutional demand, a more supportive US policy tone, and a maturing market profile support a longer, steadier expansion with “shallower dips.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,182. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a consolidation phase below $92,000. BTC is holding the $89,500 support and might attempt to start a fresh increase. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above $90,000 and $90,500. The price is trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $90,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Stays In A Range Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $89,500 support and started a minor recovery wave. BTC was able to settle above $90,000 and $90,500. The bulls were able to push the price above $91,500, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. However, the price seems to be facing a major hurdle near the $92,000 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low is acting as a resistance. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $90,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $90,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $92,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $92,800 level. The next resistance could be $93,450. A close above the $93,450 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $94,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,000 and $95,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $91,000 level. The first major support is near the $90,650 level and the trend line. The next support is now near the $90,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $89,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $89,250, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $91,000, followed by $90,650. Major Resistance Levels – $92,000 and $92,800.

Claims that a Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale suddenly returned to the market with a multi-billion-dollar purchase have injected tension into an already fragile Bitcoin price action. The claims gained traction after social media posts on X revealed that an address dormant since 2011 had accumulated roughly 26,900 BTC, a move framed by some as a powerful bullish signal.  However, a few others saw something very different. One warning revealed that the timing and context of the transfer pointed toward a setup that could lead to a large-scale distribution. Why Some Traders See A Major Red Flag Claims that a Satoshi-Era Bitcoin address might be actually buying billions of dollars’ worth of BTC took many investors by surprise. According to a crypto participant known as 0xNobler on the social media platform X, the whale address became active for the first time since 2011 and went all in on Bitcoin again. Such a purchase goes against the trend of Satoshi-era whales becoming active after many years to sell their holdings.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hits Crash Line, But This Time Is Not Random The claim of purchase is very bullish on the outside, but there are also bearish interpretations of the move. The bearish interpretation is based on market psychology and the historical behavior of early Bitcoin holders.  A wallet allegedly active since the Satoshi era would have acquired BTC at negligible prices, often well below $1. From that perspective, the idea that such an entity waited more than a decade only to buy aggressively near all-time highs appears illogical. A critic argued that sudden movements involving billions of dollars at the current price action indicate preparation. According to the critic, the entity behind the whale address is preparing to distribute. Large transfers into newly active wallets can be part of liquidity staging, designed to allow gradual distribution without causing immediate panic.  Satoshi-Era Whale Story Appears To Be A Misunderstanding Closer inspection of the on-chain data indicates that the dramatic narrative surrounding this event rests on questionable assumptions. A few other crypto market participants pointed out that the circulated image claiming a Satoshi-era whale went all in on Bitcoin is edited and misleading, and that the receiving address labeled ‘3FsDiW’ may not belong to an early individual holder at all. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Interestingly, blockchain trackers link the address to Twenty One Capital, with records showing that it was created only a few days ago and the first transaction was first received on January 10, 2026. Transaction history shows a small test transfer of 1 BTC to Bitfinex, after which the remaining funds were consolidated into the new address ‘3FsDiW’ from another wallet already associated with Twenty One Capital. Twenty One Capital is a publicly traded Bitcoin-focused company that reportedly holds more than 43,000 BTC on its balance sheet. This distinction matters, as it removes the existential fear implied by the original claims of a Bitcoin whale buying billions worth of Bitcoin. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin pushed above the $92,000 level late-Sunday as a legal escalation around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell became public. The catalyst was Powell’s decision to publicly address Department of Justice subpoenas and a criminal probe he characterized as political pressure tied to the administration’s rate preferences. In a video released Sunday evening, Powell directly addressed US President Donald Trump: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell responds after Federal prosecutors open a criminal investigation into him: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of… pic.twitter.com/y1dRdoQ1fm — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 12, 2026 Bitcoin Community Reacts To The News The Bitcoin and broader crypto market responded immediately with a decent push higher, while “metals [were] blasting to new highs,” as analyst Will Clemente wrote via X. Related Reading: CVDD Model Signals Bitcoin Is Not Yet Deeply Undervalued: Drawdown Lags Historical Cycles The timing matters for crypto traders: the Fed is heading into its January 28 meeting with the market increasingly primed for a pause in cuts, amplifying sensitivity to any perception that monetary policy is being pulled into partisan conflict. For Bitcoin-native observers, the episode read like a real-time stress test of institutional trust: one that flatters Bitcoin’s pitch. Clemente added via X: “This environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for. The President is coming after the Fed chair. Metals are ripping as sovereigns diversify reserves. Stocks & risk assets at record highs. Geopolitical risk rising.” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, put the contrast in monetary regimes front and center, arguing that Bitcoin’s “credibly neutral, predictable, transparent, and censorship resistant monetary policy looks pretty good here,” after flagging Powell’s view that the subpoenas are “pretexts” for administrative meddling in monetary policy. Related Reading: Cathie Wood: Trump May Buy Bitcoin For US Reserve Ahead Of Midterms Others used the moment to widen the indictment beyond any single personality. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park argued that “independence alone cannot be a virtue when the institution at its core is incompetent,” adding that “the age of Bitcoin is drawing nearer.” Walker, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice, framed it as a structural problem: “The problem isn’t President Trump or Jerome Powell. The problem is a centralized cabal of unelected banker-bureaucrats set the price of money and print it out of thin air.” Notably, the bullish reflex wasn’t rooted in sympathy for Powell. Strive CEO Matt Cole wrote he had “zero sympathy” for the Fed chair and accused the central bank of “gaslight[ing] the American people” on independence, concluding: “Bitcoin is even more underpriced than we realized…” Bitcoin’s move through $92,000 puts that narrative onto a price chart, but the same political-legal feedback loop that fuels the “neutral money” thesis can also intensify volatility. “For the first time ever, Fed Chair Powell is fighting back: Over the last 12 months, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent amid President Trump’s criticisms,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote via X, adding: “Today, that changed. […] Trump vs Powell will result in even more volatility.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,560. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a downside extension below $92,000. BTC is now recovering from $89,220 and might face barriers for a fresh increase near $92,000. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above $90,000 and $90,500. The price is trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $90,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $90,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Attempts Recovery Bitcoin price failed to stay above $91,500 and started a downside correction. BTC dipped below $92,000 and $91,200 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even dipped below $90,500 and tested $90,000. A low was formed at $89,225 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above $90,500. The price climbed higher above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $90,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $91,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $90,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $92,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. The first key resistance is near the $92,650 level. The next resistance could be $93,500. A close above the $93,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $94,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,000 and $95,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $91,250 level. The first major support is near the $90,500 level. The next support is now near the $90,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $89,250 support in the near term. The main support sits at $88,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $91,250, followed by $90,500. Major Resistance Levels – $92,500 and $93,500.

The Bitcoin price has slowed down after a relatively hot start to the year, as it appears that not much has structurally changed for the market leader. A crypto analyst recently revealed that the premier cryptocurrency continues to trade beneath a critical price threshold. Why The Present Scenario Raises Caution Among Investors  In a January 10 post on social media platform X, analyst Ali Martinez shared that the Bitcoin price has continued to trade underneath its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). This not-so-optimistic trend, according to the crypto pundit, has been ongoing for the past nine weeks.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Maintains Mid-$90k Levels: Possible Price Targets — Analyst For context, the 50-week SMA is a long-term technical indicator that calculates, on average, the closing price of an asset — in this case, Bitcoin — over the past 50 weeks. This indicator is particularly useful in establishing points of dynamic support and resistance during differing market cycles. For example, it functions as support during bull markets and acts as resistance in bear markets.  When Bitcoin trades above the 50W SMA, it is often a sign that the market is in a strong uptrend. Contrarily, when the Bitcoin price trades beneath this dynamic resistance level for an extended period, it indicates that upside momentum is weakening and that major corrections might soon ensue. Interestingly, historical data is the source of this observation. From the chart shared below, there are recurrent periods where the Bitcoin price stayed consistently below the 50W SMA. In those past cycles, these periods of prolonged deviation beneath the 50W SMA preceded major pullbacks for BTC, which often ranged between 50% to 70%.  Notably, the pullbacks seen did not end Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend. Rather — as is typical of corrections — they likely served as reset phases, where excessive leverage was wiped out of the market in preparation for the next long-term continuations. As a result, concerns have been raised among Bitcoin market participants, considering the similarity of the current setup to past ones. If history were to repeat itself here, the Bitcoin price could see a pullback by at least 50%, with the price falling to levels as low as $50,000. Bitcoin Price Outlook On a more positive note, the Bitcoin price still has a chance to escape the snares of its historical woes. For this to happen, the world’s leading cryptocurrency would have to reclaim the 50-week moving average and hold above it for prolonged periods. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $90,352, reflecting no movement in the past day.  Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Peak Might Ignite ADA’s Rally, Says Cardano Creator Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin enters the weekend in a quiet, range-bound mode, with support around $90,500–$88,200 holding firm. While price action remains subdued for now, key resistance levels near $94,100–$107,500 will likely dictate the market’s next major move. Whether BTC resumes its upward trajectory or tests deeper support, the coming week could provide the confirmation the market has been waiting for. Expect Slower Bitcoin Market Moves According to Kamile Uray, the market has entered the weekend, a period typically characterized by slow and subdued price action. The key support region between $90,588 and $88,280 has not yet formed a clear bottom, but it continues to prevent a sharper decline. Related Reading: Three Key Levels For Bitcoin: Top Analysts Caution Against Potential Drop Below $70,000 On the upside, a daily close above the $94,130 resistance would signal that bullish momentum is resuming. If this level is cleared, the next key resistance to watch is in the $98,200–$107,500 range. The $107,500 mark is particularly significant, as a daily close above it would represent the first higher high relative to the last downward wave on the daily chart, potentially opening the door for further upward continuation. Should the market face deeper declines, there are multiple support zones to monitor: $86,398, $83,822, and $82,477. As long as BTC holds above $82,477, any pullbacks are likely to be considered retests of previous breakouts, keeping the broader bullish scenario intact. If BTC closes below $82,477, it could trigger a continuation of the downtrend, possibly testing the $74,496–$71,237 zone, which represents a strong support area. Once a clear reversal is confirmed from this region, an upward move targeting the downtrend line could follow, offering a potential opportunity for traders to re-enter the market. Weekend Choppiness Expected As Volume Remains Light In a more recent update by Lennaert Snyder on X, Bitcoin has entered its weekend liquidity phase. As usual, trading activity is expected to be muted due to weak weekend volume. Looking ahead to next week, Snyder noted that the best-case scenario would be a break above the monthly open in the next weekly candle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Absorbs The Flush: Quantum Structure Signals Wave (3) Toward $104,000 Snyder is monitoring key triggers for quality trades. Historically, Sunday “scam-pumps” have provided opportunities to execute short trades near liquidity zones. Currently, the $87,600 monthly open is viewed as the main target for potential downside. A diagonal line drawn on the chart highlights buy-side liquidity from shorts, which could be swept before a market structure break (MSB) forms, allowing shorts to be executed. If Bitcoin climbs above the current weekly high near $94,700, Snyder notes that the setup would simply wait for the next MSB to enter shorts again. Another key resistance to watch next week is around $96,500. A clean break above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis targeting the monthly open, signaling that upward momentum could dominate. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Following the recent bullish momentum seen early in the year, the Bitcoin price has displayed a bit of correctional movement and now stands closer to $90,000 than it did a week ago. While BTC’s most recent retracement raises suspicions of resistance lying at the $94,000 price, the latest on-chain evaluation hypothesizes the presence of a more relevant resistance just beneath $100,000. New Whales’ Cost Basis Sits Around $99k On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr recently took to the social media platform X to share an interesting hypothesis on the Bitcoin price trajectory. His on-chain observation was based on the Realized Price New Whale STH Vs Old Whale LTH indicator.  For context, this metric compares the acquisition cost, on average, of recently accumulated whale holdings (short-term holders) with that of Bitcoin’s long-term whale holdings.  Related Reading: Why Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Is The ‘Most Bullish Thing Ever’: Jeff Park Axel Adler Jr shared in his post that new whales have an average entry price near the $99,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin holds a valuation near $90,000, meaning its new whales are holding through unrealized losses. Hence, if the premier cryptocurrency ascends towards these whales’ average acquisition price of $99,000, the crypto pundit explained that these investors might become incentivized to sell their holdings. This means that these large BTC holders exit the market at break-even prices, or while incurring minimal losses.  When the largest Bitcoin investors sell their holdings, the effect often translates to price through reduced buying momentum and a simultaneous increase in downside pressure. As a result, the entry price of these investors — in this case, $99,000 — becomes major resistance, both psychologically and technically.  Long-Term Whales’ Average Cost At $39K  In a separate post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Arab Chain revealed the average cost basis across varying cohorts of Bitcoin’s investors. As the new whales hold through their unrealized losses, the Binance user deposit addresses metric tells a fascinating story. According to the analyst, the average holding cost on Binance is approximately $52,691, indicating that a good portion of Bitcoin’s traders are doing so while enjoying their profit. Interestingly, the Miner Whales are not left out of this comfort zone. This group of holders, who have more than 1,000 BTC stowed away, has an average holding cost of $58,681. Considering that price is well above their cost basis, it suggests that Bitcoin miners are also in deep profit. As a result, there will be expectedly minimal selling pressure from this faction of the market.  For Bitcoin’s Long-term Holder whales, the story is more rosy. These investors are holding their coins with an average acquisition cost of $39,681. As is intuitively obvious, this group of BTC holders is also operating within clear bounds of profit. Ultimately, it is clear that Bitcoin has a structurally bullish outlook, with unshaking investor support. If downside momentum were to enter the market, it would likely be short-term, as its oldest traders appear to be under no pressure to shave off their holdings. If retracements sponsored by these investors occur, it would likely be as a result of light profit-taking, rather than capitulation events. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $90,624, with no significant movement since the past day. Related Reading: Analyst Breaks Down Why Investors will Make More Money With XRP Than Bitcoin Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After a fairly optimistic start to the new year, the Bitcoin price might finally be ready to take off, as revealed by a market analyst. The pundit believes that the flagship cryptocurrency can reclaim its six-figure valuation over the next few weeks, particularly as a key technical indicator has turned bullish. Why BTC Price Could Be Headed For $105,000 In Three Weeks In a January 9 post on the social media platform X, pseudonymous crypto pundit Bitbull shared a positive outlook for the Bitcoin price in the coming weeks. According to the crypto analyst, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could return to around $103,000 and $105,000 in the next three to four weeks. Related Reading: Cathie Wood: Trump May Buy Bitcoin For US Reserve Ahead Of Midterms This optimistic prediction is based on changes in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the Bitcoin weekly chart. The relative strength index is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to assess the magnitude and speed of an asset’s price changes. The RSI oscillator typically analyzes whether a crypto asset (Bitcoin, in this case) is being overbought or oversold, suggesting a possible price or trend reversal. When the relative strength index rises above 70, it usually suggests an overbought market condition, with the asset’s price likely to witness a bearish reversal. On the other hand, an RSI value below the 30 mark means that the market is oversold, with the price potentially reaching a bottom. BitBull revealed that the Bitcoin weekly RSI has been in an extended decline in the past three months and has only just broken above the downward trend line. According to the market pundit, the technical indicator is signaling further upside for the Bitcoin price. As observed in the chart above, the price of Bitcoin went on a significant rally the last time the weekly RSI broke out of a downward trend. This breakout last occurred in April 2025, preceding BTC’s rally to its current all-time high of $126,080, representing an almost 50% surge. This time around, BitBull expects the Bitcoin price to rise to between $103,000 and $105,000 in the course of the next three to four weeks. Hitting this target would represent an approximately 15% rally from the current price point. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC sits around $90,600, reflecting an almost 1% decline in the past 24 hours. While the premier cryptocurrency made a strong start to the year, the market has since cooled down. The Bitcoin price has been mostly hovering around the $90,000 mark, with only a few runs above $91,000 in the past week. According to data from TradingView, the BTC price is up by 3% so far in 2026. Related Reading: CVDD Model Signals Bitcoin Is Not Yet Deeply Undervalued: Drawdown Lags Historical Cycles Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Crypto expert Plan C has alluded to the business cycle to explain why the Bitcoin top isn’t in despite the flagship crypto’s run to $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, having lost most of its gains from the start of the year.  Why The Bitcoin Top Isn’t In Yet Based On The Business Cycle In an X post, Plan C suggested that it doesn’t make sense to call the Bitcoin top when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the bull market peak hasn’t occurred.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Plan C was reacting to an X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also indicated that the Bitcoin top wasn’t yet in. The analyst noted that the ISM PMI was still 47.9, below 50. Based on this, Sminston remarked that the spring was still coiling, with his accompanying chart showing that the BTC price records a parabolic rally once the ISM PMI breaks above 50.  The chart also showed that the Bitcoin price could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could then mark the bull market peak for BTC and the broader crypto market as Plan C suggested. In the meantime, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, with other macro data painting a mixed picture for the flagship crypto. The latest U.S. jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish for the crypto market.  BTC Needs To Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery According to a Glassnode report, the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery would be a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode claims this would signal renewed confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward more constructive trend dynamics.  Related Reading: Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns Glassnode further noted that as attention turns to whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the broader structure is starting to resemble earlier transitional failures. This is similar to the Q1 2022 period, with BTC’s prolonged inability to recover above this level materially increasing the risk of a deeper bearish extension.  The on-chain analytics platform added that if the BTC price remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to erode. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover said to have occurred between 2021 and 2022, before the BTC price topped.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

After a robust start to the year, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered significant resistance that has hindered its recovery trajectory, resulting in a brief dip below the $90,000 mark over the last few days. As analysts evaluate the situation, they have identified crucial levels that will influence Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. Critical Bitcoin Price Levels In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Ted Pillows outlined three critical price points for Bitcoin in the short-term price action. The first key level to monitor is $89,200, which has served as a vital support.  Should the Bitcoin price fall below this threshold, Ted Pillows predicts a subsequent drop toward the $87,500 level. But beyond this, Pillows cautioned that if the $87,500 support is lost on a daily basis, it could signal a significant downward trend for the cryptocurrency’s price in the near-term. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report On the upside, the analyst suggested that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $94,000 to $95,000 range to establish a positive momentum. Notably, a daily close above this level could pave the way for BTC to reach between $102,000 and $103,000.  Similarly, fellow analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the importance of the cryptocurrency’s price in maintaining its position above $87,200 to avoid a potential decline toward $69,230, which implies a potential 24% drop if this scenario materializes.  Currently, Bitcoin has experienced a slight uptick, reaching $91,390 at the time of writing, partly due to the US Supreme Court’s decision to delay a ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs case, an event anticipated to bring volatility to the cryptocurrency market. Bitfinex Whales’ Moves  Beyond technical analysis, there is a developing trend that many have overlooked. Bitfinex whales are apparently unwinding their BTC long holdings aggressively. Analysts such as Ash Crypto point out that this type of “unwind” has traditionally preceded significant market turbulence.  During a similar event in early 2025, the Bitcoin price stalled around the $74,000 level but subsequently experienced a major recovery rally of approximately 50%, surging to the $112,000 mark within just 43 days. Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils Ash noted that this could suggest that a similar pattern could unfold potentially this month, targeting price levels of $135,000 or more in the near term, which could result in a new all-time high for the market’s leading cryptocurrency.  According to analysts, Bitfinex whales successfully relieve market pressure brought on by sizable clusters of long holdings when they “clear the books.” By lowering the market’s targets, price-hunting algorithms can more easily change the direction upward. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The notorious crypto crash on October 10 of last year sent shockwaves through the market, resulting in the largest liquidation event in history with nearly $20 billion in losses. This catastrophic event ignited significant criticisms and fears among investors regarding the stability of the cryptocurrency market.  However, the upcoming crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, is being touted as a potential safeguard against future crashes. Market Manipulation In Crypto Could Plummet  Market expert Crypto Rover recently took to social media to express optimism about the CLARITY Act as the Senate prepares for a markup on January 15. According to Rover, this crypto bill could reduce market manipulation in the crypto space by an impressive 70% to 80%.  Related Reading: 3 Vital Factors Needed For A Lasting 2026 Crypto Surge, Bitwise CIO Unveils He noted the devastating effects of the October 10 event, describing it as a “massacre” for crypto holders, many of whom lost their life savings without clear answers about who was ultimately responsible for the chaos. Rover is confident that with the implementation of the CLARITY Act, the cryptocurrency market could begin operating more like traditional financial markets (TradFi).  Institutional Investment Set To Surge  Once the CLARITY Act passes in the Senate, Rover asserts that it will move to the floor for a full vote before returning to the House for final approval and eventually reaching President Trump’s desk.  He further suggested that this entire process could take one to two months, potentially allowing the CLARITY Act to be signed into law by March 2026. Related Reading: VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million In New Long-Term Capital Report Should this come to fruition, it is expected to open the floodgates for institutional investment in the crypto market, fundamentally changing the alleged “daily market manipulation” witnessed in the sector.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,357, having erased some of the gains seen at the beginning of the week when the market’s leading crypto surged towards a two-month high of $94,800.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s (BTC) near-term direction, one Wall Street analyst is standing firm in his bullish outlook. He predicts that Bitcoin could soon enter a price discovery, underscoring its value beyond being a payment currency to a market leader and one of the best-performing assets that could eventually reach gold’s market capitalization. Analyst Stays Bullish On Bitcoin Despite Price Instability In a recent interview with CNBC, William Blair’s fintech equity analyst Andrew Jeffrey said recent price swings do not change his long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s recovery and future value. CNBC opened the discussion by pointing out that crypto started the year on a stronger note than Q4 2025, rising about 5% before giving back more than 2% after a sharp rally.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Strongest XRP Price Rally In History Is Coming, Here’s Why When asked what was happening beneath the surface of Bitcoin’s latest moves, Jeffrey said its behavior reflects the nature of an immature asset. He explained that BTC has a market capitalization of more than $1.9 trillion. Yet, roughly one-third of the total supply is controlled by a small group of wallets, roughly estimated at 2 million.  The Wall Street analyst stated that this supply concentration creates instability, especially during periods of market stress. He added that recent buyers, particularly retail investors entering through ETFs, tend to have weaker conviction and are more likely to sell during downturns.  According to Jeffrey, these sell-offs can feed on themselves, leading to sharper declines. He said the current environment is broadly risk off, but emphasized that he sees this phase as temporary. The Wall Street analyst also highlighted his belief that Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as a store of value. He stated that BTC could eventually challenge gold’s role in that category and move closer to the precious metal’s market cap, which is currently about 15x larger than Bitcoin’s today.  While optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook, Jeffrey made it clear that he does not see it becoming a dominant payment tool. Instead, he stated that stablecoins like Circle’s USDC are more suited for transactions. The analyst emphasized that price discovery is still underway and that BTC’s long-term potential remains intact despite recent market turbulence.   Bitcoin Still Needs To Lead For Crypto To Rise  In the interview, Jeffrey spoke with CNBC about fading excitement around Bitcoin as newer crypto stories attract attention. CNBC raised concerns that BTC feels like old news as prices hover and interest shifts towards more interesting news surrounding companies like Ripple.   Related Reading: XRP Mirrors Gold’s Trajectory: What A Similar ATH Rally Would Mean Jeffrey replied that Bitcoin’s short-term price action is driven by investor psychology, while its long-term performance tells a different story. He highlighted that Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in the world over the past decade and said investors need to maintain that perspective.  CNBC also questioned whether crypto growth could now occur without Bitcoin leading the way. The Wall Street analyst responded that it would be very hard for the crypto market to see sustained gains without BTC at the forefront.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Cathie Wood, ARK Invest’s founder and CEO, said she expects the Trump administration could move beyond simply holding seized bitcoin and begin purchasing BTC to build a US strategic reserve, a shift she argued could become a catalytic signal for markets and other governments. Speaking on ARK’s “Bitcoin Brainstorm” podcast in an episode dated Jan. 08, Wood framed government buying as a potential inflection point at a time when she believes institutional participation remains “just beginning” and bitcoin’s supply dynamics are getting harder to ignore. “We have seen very little institutional buy-in, it is just beginning,” Wood said. “And I think if we get the US, for example, not adding just confiscated bitcoin to a strategic reserve but, you know, out there buying, and we don’t know if that’s going to be the case. But if they were to do so, I have a feeling that would set off what we’re all waiting for, which is, you know, the scarcity value to reassert itself again now that we’re near 20 million bitcoin outstanding and we only have one more million to go.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Emerges As A Hedge Amid Rising Global Geopolitical Tensions In the discussion, Wood suggested the administration’s posture so far has effectively been limited to confiscated holdings. She contrasted that with what she described as an earlier ambition for scale, noting “the original intent was to own a million bitcoin,” before adding her view that a pivot toward purchases is plausible. Midterms Could Drive US Bitcoin Reserve Buys Wood linked that possibility to political incentives heading into the 2026 US midterm elections, describing Trump as motivated to keep momentum and avoid being politically sidelined. “President Trump does not want to be a lame duck,” she said. “So I have a feeling that he is going to work with his crypto and AI czar to do a few things… [and] it seems as though there’s been reticence about actually buying bitcoin for the strategic reserve. So far, so far it’s confiscated… So I actually think they will start buying.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Indicator With 84% Hit Rate Flashes Again: Is A Price Rally Next? Wood also pointed to what she sees as aligned constituencies around the president, arguing he has “all kinds of reasons” to lean into crypto while emphasizing that the political calculus matters because of the midterm timeline. When the conversation turned to how such purchases could be executed, Wood echoed the idea that any reserve strategy would need to be budget-neutral. She didn’t outline a mechanism, but treated the constraint as a key gating factor for feasibility. Wood argued that explicit US buying would not just be a domestic market event. Iit could force other capitals to revisit reserve policy. “Something that’s really important… we thought that countries would adopt it much earlier than they have,” she said. “I think if the US actually says, ‘Okay, now we’re going to buy,’ that’s going to spur a lot of other governments to think this thing through. Do they want to be hostage to the dollar…? And you know, no, they don’t. So put some bitcoin in your reserves.” If that dynamic accelerates, Wood warned emerging-market currencies could face renewed pressure, describing a scenario where reserve diversification toward bitcoin reshapes volatility across weaker fiat regimes, a downstream effect, she suggested, of Washington making the first overt move from holding seized BTC to competing in the open market. At press time, BTC traded at $90,578. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price could be in for more pain as a crypto analyst has just released a gloomy short-term outlook, warning that another crash may be on the way. The analyst believes that Bitcoin’s overall market structure remains bearish. As a result, he expects the price to fall to about $76,000, representing a 20% decline from current levels.  Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 20% Crash Crypto market analyst Roman has issued a warning that Bitcoin could be heading for another sharp decline, with his primary target set near $76,000. In his post on X, he emphasized that the current market structure shows no evidence of a sustainable price bottom and that downside risk remains dominant.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Crash Another 50% As Analyst Marks $40,000 Bottom Target Roman explained that his bearish outlook is based on the daily timeframe, where Bitcoin has struggled to regain strong bullish momentum after a significant correction. He also noted that the price is still trading within a broader bearish trend, suggesting the market may simply be taking a pause before the next move lower.  The accompanying chart shows BTC trading above $90,000 while still well below the previous resistance area near $96,000. Each attempt to push higher has been rejected, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control of the market.   Notably, Roman’s chart has revealed that the expected move lower could start with a drop back to the mid $80,000s, followed by a deeper slide between $78,500 and $75,000. The hand-drawn projection on the chart also illustrates a sharp fall after a brief relief rally, suggesting that BTC’s decline could speed up once support breaks.  Volume behavior also plays a key role in Roman’s bearish outlook. The chart shows noticeably weak trading volume during Bitcoin’s recent rebound, which the analyst previously said is typical of holiday-driven pumps.  Additional Signals That Support Analyst’s Bearish Forecast Roman’s $76,000 Bitcoin crash forecast is a follow-up to previous posts in which he explained several reasons why the leading cryptocurrency is in a bear market and could correct again soon. He referenced historical indicator behavior to justify his latest prediction.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash To $25,000: Why The Bottom Is Much Lower The analyst explained that Bitcoin’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) were extremely oversold after its price dropped roughly 40% from its all-time high. As a result, the current consolidation has given these indicators a chance to reset.  Roman sees the lack of strong buying pressure during this reset as a warning sign. He stressed that a true bullish reversal would need rising volume and clear higher highs, which are not showing on the daily chart. The analyst also noted that Bitcoin’s longer-term trend remains bearish, with the market continuing to form lower highs within a declining range. He has concluded that until clear reversal signals appear, traders should treat any upside moves as corrective, not the start of a fresh bull run. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator has recently flipped back to a buy signal on the weekly timeframe, according to a Jan. 8 video analysis from crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev Capital TA). The setup matters, he argued, because the model has historically been associated with higher prices after corrective periods, even if its record is no longer spotless. In the video, Kev Capital walked viewers through the weekly Bitcoin chart with the hash ribbons overlay, describing it as one of the higher “hit rate” signals in crypto’s technical playbook. “There have been 19 buy signals on the weekly time frame throughout all of Bitcoin’s history and it has an 84% hit rate of playing out,” he said, adding that such consistency is rare for any single indicator. Hash ribbons attempt to infer miner stress and recovery by comparing short- and longer-term moving averages of network hash rate. Kev Capital framed it less as a simple “buy/sell” tool and more as a proxy for network health, where miner behavior can precede shifts in market structure. “It’s not just a buy and sell indicator. It’s tracking mining hash rate,” he said. “And what that basically means is it’s tracking the overall power and network health on the Bitcoin blockchain.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Nears Neutral As Price Recovers The mechanics, as he explained them, hinge on the 30-day moving average of hash rate (his chart showed this as a green line) versus the 60-day moving average (a gray line). When the 30-day crosses below the 60-day, the model labels it capitulation, which he described as aligning with bearish price action and a weaker network backdrop. When the 30-day crosses back above the 60-day, the indicator prints a buy signal (shown as blue dots on his chart), which he interprets as miners “rebounding” after weaker operators have been forced out. “Anytime that 30-day crosses below the 60, it marks a capitulation phase, which shows that there’s been bearish price action in a weaker network,” Kev Capital said. “Now, when it crosses back above is when you get the blue dots, and that is a buy signal. That’s when the 30-day moving average of hash rate crosses back above the 60-day moving average of hash rate.” Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy Signal Returns The near-term catalyst for his update was a fresh signal sequence around the end of December. Kev Capital said the hash ribbons flashed capitulation in the second-to-last week of December, followed by a buy signal in the last week of December. He noted the indicator was again “flashing a capitulation signal” during the current week, not yet confirmed which could set up another buy signal if the moving averages continue to “mingle” and then resolve higher. Related Reading: Why Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Is The ‘Most Bullish Thing Ever’: Jeff Park He also spent time qualifying the model’s reputation. While he cited an 84% historical hit rate for the weekly buy signals, he said that earlier in the current cycle the indicator printed two buy signals: in May and July that did not deliver the kind of follow-through that has defined prior successful instances. “We did go up from the original buy signal, but it really wasn’t a lot,” he said, contrasting that with prior hash ribbons episodes that “typically produce a 30 to 100% move.” In his telling, those underwhelming outcomes were enough to break what he described as a prior “100% hit rate” framing. https://t.co/vfZFXTAN77 #BTC Weekly Hash Ribbons buy signal and what it means. #Crypto #Altcoins — Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) January 8, 2026 Still, Kev Capital argues the context is now different because the latest signal comes after a drawdown. He referenced a 36% decline in Bitcoin during the recent corrective period and suggested the early signs of miner recovery, reflected in the moving averages stabilizing and attempting to turn up, are the conditions where the indicator has historically performed best. However, he cautioned that timing is variable, saying the setup can take “two to four to six weeks” to play out, or move sooner. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,009. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a downside correction below $92,500. BTC is now struggling and might face barriers for a fresh increase near $92,000. Bitcoin started a downside correction and traded below the $91,200 zone. The price is trading below $91,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $92,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Attempts Recovery Bitcoin price failed to stay above $93,500 and started a downside correction. BTC dipped below $93,000 and $92,000 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even dipped below $91,200 and tested $90,000. A low was formed at $89,225 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above $90,500. The price climbed higher to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,770 swing high to the $89,225 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $90,300, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $91,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $92,000 level, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,771 swing high to the $89,225 low. The next resistance could be $92,800. A close above the $92,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $93,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $90,650 level. The first major support is near the $90,300 level. The next support is now near the $89,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $88,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $87,250, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $90,650, followed by $90,300. Major Resistance Levels – $91,500 and $92,000.

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $90,000 level after a sharp rejection from the $94,000 resistance zone, keeping market sentiment sharply divided. While some analysts argue that BTC is entering a deeper corrective phase, others believe the pullback is a necessary reset before a renewed upside attempt. The current price action reflects this uncertainty, with volatility rising as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance While $4.7B In Sell-Side Liquidity Builds According to an analysis shared by Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s short-term risk structure remains fragile. His short-term risk chart places BTC below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, currently estimated near $100,200. Price is also trading beneath all major moving averages, including the 128-day, 200-day, and 365-day SMAs, reinforcing the view that the broader structure is still bearish. At current levels around $91,000, Bitcoin sits in a moderate risk zone, positioned between the STH Cost Basis and the -15% downside boundary. This positioning suggests that recent rebounds should be treated cautiously. Until BTC reclaims the STH Cost Basis, upside moves are more likely to represent technical bounces within a downward trend rather than a confirmed reversal. Conversely, a breakdown below the moderate risk boundary would signal rising downside risk and could accelerate selling pressure. As a result, the $90K–$100K range remains a critical battleground for Bitcoin’s next directional move. STH Losses Continue To Cap Bitcoin’s Upside Adler’s analysis also highlights a second critical framework: the chart tracking Bitcoin’s all-time highs alongside euphoria zones and the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator. This metric measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average realized price of coins held by short-term investors, offering a direct view into the profitability—and behavior—of this highly reactive cohort. At present, STH MVRV sits near 0.92, well below its historical mean of roughly 1.09 and decisively under the neutral level of 1.0. In practical terms, this implies that the average short-term holder is holding an unrealized loss of about 8%. Historically, periods where STH MVRV remains below 1.0 have tended to coincide with either capitulation phases or extended consolidation ranges, rather than sustained bullish expansions. The last clear euphoria zone on this chart appeared during the all-time high update in October 2025, underscoring how far current conditions are from a speculative extreme. As long as STH MVRV remains below breakeven, short-term holders are incentivized to sell into rallies as the price approaches their cost basis. This behavior creates persistent overhead supply and reinforces structural resistance near the STH Cost Basis, close to the $100,000 level. Consequently, reclaiming that zone is not just a psychological milestone but a necessary condition for any meaningful regime shift back to a bullish market structure. Related Reading: XRP Sees Back-to-Back Liquidation Waves: Binance Absorbs Majority Of Liquidations Bitcoin Price Recovery Lacks Confirmation Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects a market still trapped in a fragile recovery attempt after a sharp rejection from higher levels. Following the failed breakout above the $94,000–$95,000 area, BTC experienced a decisive sell-off that pushed the price back toward the $85,000 zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This reaction marked a short-term bottom, but the subsequent rebound has so far lacked structural strength. At present, Bitcoin is trading near the $90,000–$91,000 region, a former support that has now turned into a key pivot. Price remains below the 200-day and 365-day moving averages, both of which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The 128-day moving average has also capped recent upside attempts, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains corrective rather than impulsively bullish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Accumulation Regime: Market Supported By Seller Exhaustion, Not Buying Surge From a structure standpoint, the chart shows a sequence of lower highs since the October peak, suggesting that sellers continue to control the macro trend. Volume expanded notably during the November–December sell-off, while the current bounce is unfolding on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies that the move higher may be more short-covering driven than supported by strong spot demand. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the $94,000–$95,000 resistance zone with increasing volume, the risk of another rejection remains elevated. Failure to do so could reopen the path toward the $85,000 support, where the market would once again be forced to prove its underlying strength. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

According to an ambitious research study published by asset manager and cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer VanEck, Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering price of $2.9 million per coin by 2050.  The insights come from Matthew Sigel, the firm’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, who have employed a valuation framework based on Bitcoin’s role in two primary total addressable markets: as a medium of exchange (MoE) and as a reserve asset for central banks. VanEck Projects 15% CAGR For Bitcoin In their analysis, Sigel and Bush project a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from Bitcoin’s current levels, which would position the cryptocurrency as a significant player in the global economy.  Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Orchestrate Bitcoin October Crash? Analysts Draw Correlations The report outlines two structural shifts that they believe will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s appreciation. The first, dubbed the Settlement Pivot, predicts that by 2050, Bitcoin will be responsible for settling between 5% and 10% of global international trade, as well as 5% of domestic trade transactions. The second crucial aspect, referred to as the Reserve Pivot, connects Bitcoin’s potential growth to waning trust in G7 sovereign debt. As confidence in these currencies diminishes, the authors anticipate that central banks might allocate resources toward Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal instability. Yet, the VanEck report does not stop at a mere base case; it also explores a more optimistic scenario termed the Bull Case.  ‘Hyper-Bitcoinization’ In this scenario, known as “hyper-bitcoinization,” if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could skyrocket to $53.4 million per coin, representing a major 29% CAGR.  Achieving this would require Bitcoin to either equal or surpass gold’s status as a primary global reserve asset, making up nearly 30% of financial assets worldwide. Related Reading: GENIUS Act Key Provisions In Spotlight: XRP Attorney Deaton Alerts To Bankers’ Role For context, the report uses a baseline current price of approximately $88,000 when projecting these values. Interestingly, it incorporates a Bear Case target of $130,000, reflecting a modest 2% CAGR.  In terms of correlation, VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will exhibit low to moderate correlation with global equities, bonds, and gold over various market cycles. Notably, they emphasize a persistent negative correlation with the US Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has absorbed a sharp sell-off and stabilized at key support, signaling that buyers are firmly in control. With the market holding its structure, insights from Quantum Models suggest that Wave (3) is underway, pointing toward a near-term target around $104,000. Q-Structure Confluence Holds Firm, Keeping The Bullish Bias Alive Elliott Chart, in a recent update, highlighted that Bitcoin remains firmly supported around the Q-Structure λ₅ confluence zone, a level that continues to underpin the broader bullish outlook. This support area has absorbed selling pressure, suggesting that larger participants are still defending key levels despite recent volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dips Further, Setting Up a High-Stakes Support Moment Upon closer examination of market structure, the recent pullback is now being classified as a complex corrective phase rather than the beginning of a larger downtrend. Specifically, the correction is interpreted as Intermediate Wave (2), unfolding through a Zigzag W | Zigzag X | Triangle Y setup.  With this corrective pattern largely resolved, Elliott Chart highlights that Intermediate Wave (3) is now in progress, with Minor Waves 1 and 2 already taking shape. This suggests the market is building the foundation for a more decisive move higher. The critical piece still developing is an impulsive Minor Wave 3. Historically, this wave tends to be the strongest and most aggressive part of an advance. If it unfolds as expected, the model points to a near-term Q-Target around $104,444, generated using the Q-Structure λᵣ projection. This bullish scenario is derived from insights within the Quantum Models framework and is not based on short-term noise. Notably, this potential trend reversal was first projected back on November 15, during Bitcoin’s decline. Sharp Flush Finds Strong Demand At Key Levels Delving into current price actions, CyrilXBT disclosed that Bitcoin experienced a sharp flush but found buyers precisely at a critical support level, allowing the price to stabilize and gradually grind higher. This reaction indicates that the recent sell-off was absorbed by strong demand rather than driven by panic selling, reflecting healthy market participation from buyers at key zones. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Recovery Extends Into 2026 as Charts Hint at Another Leg Higher This type of price action highlights absorption, not fear. What stands out most is the higher-low structure that has emerged following the drop. This formation is important because it signals that downside pressure is weakening. As long as Bitcoin continues to hold within this reclaimed range, the risk of a deeper sell-off diminishes, and the market maintains the potential for further upward moves. Sideways or consolidating price action at these levels is constructive for the overall crypto market. Maintaining this structure sets the stage for a healthier, more sustainable advance for Bitcoin rather than a rushed or volatile rebound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Morgan Stanley’s decision to file for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs caught even seasoned ETF watchers off guard and in Jeff Park’s telling, it’s a stronger signal about crypto’s next leg of adoption than another round of flows into the existing market leaders. The surprise wasn’t merely that a major wirehouse wants in. It was the branding and the timing. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart said he “didn’t see this coming,” amplifying Eric Balchunas’ “SHOCKER” reaction to the filings. Seyffart then pointed to Matt Hougan’s framing of what made it unusual: “Morgan Stanley manages 20 ETFs, but mostly under the Calvert/Parametric/Eaton Vance brands. These will be the 3rd and 4th ETFs to bear the ‘Morgan Stanley’ brand. Pretty remarkable.” Park, the head of alpha strategies at Bitwise and ProCap CIO, argues the late-cycle entry is precisely why the filing matters. “It is unheard of for a vanilla ETF product to launch two years after the first to market has already secured the liquidity throne,” he wrote. “IAU famously tried a year later, and never caught up.” Park’s point was that Morgan Stanley wouldn’t make that bet unless internal channels were flashing something the broader market still underestimates. Why This Is ‘The Most Bullish Thing’ For Bitcoin Park framed the filing as a total addressable market story, not a product story. “It means the market is MUCH bigger than even crypto professionals anticipated, especially to reach NEW customers,” he said. “This signals that despite IBIT being the fastest ETF in history to reach $80Bn in AUM (roughly 1/5th the time it took for second place VOO), there is enough untapped interest as viably researched and ascertained through MS’ proprietary wealth channels that they are willing to bet that a branded product has commercial viability.” He finished that thought with the kind of line that reads like a thesis statement for 2026: “It means we are still so early.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Wins As Trump Pumps GDP, Suppresses Oil: Arthur Hayes The “why now” also fits with Seyffart’s longer-running view that institutional platforms would eventually shift. “I’ve been saying for literal years that most of these firms will change their tune on crypto,” he wrote. “But it really was just a couple months ago that Morgan Stanley advisors were barred from buying crypto ETFs for their clients.” In other words: the timeline is compressing, and the posture is moving from cautious access to product ownership. Park’s second argument is that Morgan Stanley is treating Bitcoin as an identity product as much as an allocation sleeve. “It means that Bitcoin is ‘socially’ important just as much as it is ‘financially’ important as a product to offer to customers,” he wrote. “Consider the fact that for being ‘digital gold’ there are virtually no branded gold ETFs in existence, yet for Bitcoin there is.” In his view, that difference is the tell: a house-branded Bitcoin ETF isn’t only about exposure, it’s about what the firm signals to clients and recruits by having it at all. Park argued the branding functions as a credibility marker with a specific audience in mind. “This is because every asset manager knows that having a Bitcoin ETF communicates that they are forward thinking, young, and a little edgy that allows targeting the most challenging investor cohort that everyone wants to reach: UHNW Independent Investors,” he said.“ Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Improve, But Signal Still Not Decisive: Glassnode Morgan Stanley is making the bet that even if their ETF doesn’t scale to blockbuster success, there’s an intangible benefit that will help build their clout.” The third pillar is defensive: platform economics. “It is at the core a defensive move against platform disintermediation and fee leakage,” Park wrote. “By launching their own BTC ETF after IBIT already consolidated liquidity, Morgan Stanley is implicitly acknowledging a hard truth: DISTRIBUTION owns the customer, not product superiority.” He added why that matters strategically: “They are not going to let advisors default to third parties by outsourcing the economic rent. That’s why at first glance while this launch looks irrational through a pure AUM lens, also totally inevitable through a PLATFORM ECONOMICS lens.” That logic also surfaced in Seyffart’s exchange with James Van Straten, who asked why anyone would be surprised if a firm has “own distribution” and “huge demand from clients.” Seyffart’s answer didn’t dispute demand; it underscored that Morgan Stanley historically “doesn’t do a ton of ETF launches,” and that the decision to do so here is itself informative, even if, as he put it, “there’s plenty of demand” for many products that platforms never bother to manufacture. On timing, Seyffart said approval is “at least 75 days from now,” emphasizing that 75 days can be the fastest possible path under current processes, but also that “there’s plenty of products that don’t launch right at 75 days.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,256. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Morgan Stanley’s filing for a Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF), coupled with MSCI’s decision to retain digital asset companies in its index, has ignited a wave of speculation among analysts. Notably, analysts from Bull Theory have alleged that these events could be indicative of a larger-scale market manipulation. Bitcoin Market Manipulation?  In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the Bull Theory analysts drew attention to the timeline of events involving Bitcoin, arguing that the trajectory from its October crash to its subsequent recovery in January resembles an orchestrated setup supported by data. The first significant trigger occurred on 10 October, when MSCI — previously a division of Morgan Stanley — proposed removing Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from its global indexes.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues: Strategy Purchases 1,287 BTC Amid Rising Prices This decision would affect firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, which hold substantial Bitcoin assets on their balance sheets. The implications were profound, given that MSCI’s indexes guide trillions of dollars in passive investments.  If these companies were removed, institutional investors, including pension funds and ETFs, would be compelled to divest, leading to a substantial contraction in institutional exposure to Bitcoin and an immediate tightening of liquidity.  Following that announcement, Bitcoin’s price plummeted by nearly $18,000, wiping out over $900 billion from the total crypto market cap. Morgan Stanley And The MSCI Shift The uncertainty continued with a consultation period that remained open until December 31. This three-month window of prolonged anxiety effectively froze investor demand for Bitcoin.  Passive investors became wary, index-linked funds faced potential forced selling, and as a result, prices saw a stark decline—with Bitcoin dropping about 31% and altcoins suffering even more, marking the worst quarter for crypto markets since 2018. However, the tide began to shift on January 1, 2026, as Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge, rising 8% in just five days. This $7,300 increase, from $87,500 to $94,800, left many analysts puzzled, especially since the relentless selling had seemingly halted abruptly.  The analysts noted that this sudden upturn could imply that insiders might have had prior knowledge of forthcoming developments. Then, the narrative shifted dramatically on January 5 and 6. In a matter of 24 hours, Morgan Stanley unveiled its plans for spot Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana ETFs.  This was followed by MSCI announcing its decision not to proceed with the previously proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies from its indexes.  A Calculated Move?  The sequence of these events has led the analysts to present a narrative: MSCI initiated pressure by threatening index removals in October, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and suppressed prices.  Related Reading: Solana Shatters Records: 2025 Annual Review Reveals New All-Time Highs In Key Metrics Once institutions had accumulated at lower prices, Morgan Stanley introduced its ETF, and MSCI subsequently removed the threat of exclusion, raising serious concerns about the possibility of coordinated efforts to manipulate market conditions. Bull Theory analysts assert that as the market now transitions back towards liquidity, the same entities that potentially orchestrated the prior downturn may be strategically positioned to profit from the rebound.  At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $91,550, having retraced 2% from the $95,000 2-month high reached at the beginning of the week.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a downside correction from $94,500. BTC is now struggling and might dip toward the key support at $89,000. Bitcoin started a downside correction and traded below the $92,000 zone. The price is trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $92,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Downside Correction Bitcoin price failed to stay above $94,000 and started a downside correction. BTC dipped below $93,200 and $92,500 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price even dipped below $92,000 and tested $90,650. A low was formed at $90,666 and the price is now consolidating losses. It tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,771 swing high to the $90,666 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $92,650 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $90,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $91,400 level. The first key resistance is near the $92,200 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $93,771 swing high to the $90,666 low. The next resistance could be $92,500. A close above the $92,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $93,050 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500. More Downsides In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $90,500 level. The first major support is near the $90,000 level. The next support is now near the $89,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $87,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $86,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $90,500, followed by $90,000. Major Resistance Levels – $92,200 and $92,500.

As global geopolitical tensions intensify from trade fragmentation and sanctions to regional conflicts and currency weaponization, Bitcoin is increasingly emerging as a hedge outside the reach of politics. In an environment where traditional financial systems are shaped by state power and cross-border capital controls, BTC’s decentralized design is drawing renewed attention as a form of monetary insurance in an increasingly unstable world. Bitcoin’s Performance During Periods Of Instability The geopolitical tension may boost Bitcoin. Walter Bloomberg has noted on X that BTC’s recent rebound suggests rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly pushing investors toward cryptocurrencies. Walter made reference to 21Shares strategist Matt Mena’s statement, who stated that BTC is gaining recognition as a neutral reserve asset, alongside traditional safe havens such as gold and silver. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Is Being Absorbed By Powerful Financial Players — What This Means After falling more than 6% last year, BTC has historically avoided back-to-back annual declines, supporting the case for gains this year. BTC was last down 0.3% at $93,740, after reaching a seven-week high of $94,725 on Monday, underscoring its resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Considering most of the world is ecstatic with 8% annual returns, an analyst known as Juicy pointed out that the idea of doubling your money in one or two years is already an exceptional outcome for most average people. The hard truth is that most people will never hold their BTC long enough before they cash out 3 to 5 times their money, especially when BTC is down 50% in a bear market, because most people are emotionally attached to their money. Generational wealth with BTC is made by holding through multiple 50% bear market drawdowns across decades. The expert stated that his strategy is never to fully sell BTC, but to sell small portions at basic milestones like $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million, or even $10 million, while the main stack will not be sold. Extreme Supply And The Shift In Spot Momentum A trader known as DD highlighted that BTC traded directly into extreme supply just below Monday’s high and was aggressively rejected from there. This move was followed by a sharp push lower and was driven by heavy spot selling, confirming that this area remains a significant supply zone rather than a breakout point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks A Year-Long Bear Market If This Happens: On-Chain Data DD recalled the weak weekly low, a level that has now been cleared. The market is now in a phase where the response matters more than a continuation. If the price begins to form local accumulation inside demand, that would present an opportunity to look for long exposure. On the other hand, if BTC bounces back into supply and shows clear signs of weakness, then the short setup will also remain valid. Structurally, losing the $91,000 level will open the door towards the weak monthly low around $87,800, which stands out as the next downside level. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has kicked off 2026 on a good note, starting with the price breaking through the $94,000 barrier in early January, a threshold it hadn’t traded at for weeks. The surge wasn’t the result of a single cause, but rather a convergence of changing power between buying and selling pressure, improving institutional interest, on-chain signals pointing to a stabilizing market, and unexpected political developments in Venezuela that seem to have contributed to an appetite for risk assets. Geopolitical Risk-On Sentiment And Institutional Flows One of the important forces behind Bitcoin’s push towards $94,000 was the willingness among investors to take on risk across global markets, a mood shift that was shaped in part by dramatic political developments in Venezuela.  News that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces caused a chain reaction through equities, commodities and crypto, lifting risk-on sentiment as traders assessed the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the event. Perhaps the most interesting news event is the chatter around a potential Venezuelan shadow $60 billion Bitcoin reserve. This backdrop of rising confidence played into a broader return of institutional capital to Bitcoin. US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted significant net inflows at the start of 2026, with $116.95 million coming in on Friday, January 2 and $123.52 million coming in on Monday, January 5. These inflows helped lift the price of Bitcoin back into the low $90,000s and provided traction as buyers stepped in after the new year holiday lull. On-Chain Metrics Shows A Changing Market Tone According to analytical data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s market structure is stabilizing in the $80,000 to $95,000 range, sell pressure is beginning to fade, and momentum is beginning to recover. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index have moved into an upper-neutral zone, which shows a build-up in upside potential. Spot liquidity, though still thin, has expanded modestly without signs of speculative excess.  Related Reading: Same XRP Setup That Led To Over 1,000% Increase In 2017 Is Playing Out Again Glassnode noted that open interest is rebuilding cautiously and that options markets point to short-term volatility, which is a sign of both increasing participation and lingering sensitivity to profit-taking.  On-chain activity also shows a reduction in sell-side aggression alongside modestly improving spot volumes. However, Glassnode noted that structural demand is still subdued, and this places the recovery above $90,000 as a fragile one. Bitcoin Price Momentum. Source: @glassnode on X Related Reading: Early XRP Investors Sell-Offs Keep Price Low, Here’s How They’re Doing It These on-chain activities, alongside news events, worked together to help Bitcoin clear a technical hurdle at $90,000 which served as resistance throughout December 2025. The question now is whether this move signals the start of a sustained advance back above $100,000 or a temporary peak within a still-uneven market landscape. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,780, down by 0.5% from its intraday high of $94,343. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com