On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has surged into a zone that has historically signaled overpriced conditions for the asset. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Crossed Above 2.2 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross of Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross is an indicator based on another metric known as the NVT Ratio. The NVT Ratio keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. The idea behind the indicator is that the ability to transact coins (as gauged by the transaction volume) could be considered as a reflection of the asset’s ‘fair value.’ Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark & Whale Wallets Set New All-Time High Thus, through the comparison of the cryptocurrency’s current value (that is, the market cap) with this fair value, the metric can tell us about whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. When the value of the metric is high, it means the market cap is high compared to the transaction volume. Such a trend could imply BTC may be becoming overheated. On the other hand, the indicator being low could suggest room for the coin to grow relative to its volume. Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of relevance here, is a signaling indicator like the Bollinger bands for the NVT Ratio that aims to locate tops and bottoms in its value. The NVT Golden Cross does so by comparing the short-term trend (represented by the 10-day MA) with the long-term one (30-day MA). Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently registered a sharp uptick and entered into the region above the 2.2 mark (highlighted in red). This zone is where the cryptocurrency’s market cap has historically outpaced the transaction volume to a degree that a reversion to the mean has tended to occur. In other words, it’s where price corrections to the downside have taken place for the asset. Related Reading: Stablecoin Exchange Inflows Plummet $61 Billion—Warning Sign For Bitcoin? Though, it’s visible from the chart that not every top in the NVT Golden Cross inside this territory coincides with a price top. And in many instances that it does, the decline in the asset isn’t to some major degree. So far since the signal has appeared, however, the asset has indeed been going down, a potential sign that the same reversion effect may be in play once more. It now remains to be seen whether downside will be limited, or if this will be one of those instances where the signal was followed by an extended drawdown. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,700, down almost 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The CEO of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant explained that Bitcoin’s price isn’t currently overvalued based on its network fundamentals. Bitcoin Price May Not Be Overvalued Yet Based On Thermo Cap Ratio In a new post on X, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju has discussed about how the recent trend in the Bitcoin Thermo Cap Ratio has been like. The “Thermo Cap” is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the total value of the asset by taking each token’s value as the same as the spot price when it was mined on the network. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Rise To $79,600 If This Holds Put another way, this model calculates the cumulative value of the coins mined by the miners since the inception of the blockchain. This is quite different from what, for example, the usual market cap does. In the market cap’s case, the current spot price is taken as the value of all coins in circulation. As the coins that miners mine are the only way to increase the cryptocurrency’s supply, the Thermo Cap may be considered a measure of the “true” capital inflows coming into the network. Here is a chart that displays how the Bitcoin Thermo Cap has changed over its history: As the above graph shows, the Thermo Cap has seen an accelerating growth curve. This naturally reflects the increasing amount of capital flowing into the asset over the years. In the context of the current topic, though, the indicator of interest isn’t the Thermo Cap itself but rather the Thermo Cap Ratio. This metric tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the Thermo Cap. The chart below shows the trend in the Thermo Cap Ratio over the asset’s history. An interesting pattern is visible in the graph. It appears that very high values of the Thermo Cap Ratio have coincided with highs in the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Solid On-Chain Cushion Below $68,900: Stage Set For Fresh Rally? At high values, the Bitcoin market cap is quite large compared to the Thermo Cap, meaning that coins are trading at a much higher rate than they were mined at. It’s also apparent that bottoms in BTC occur when the ratio assumes low values. The recent trend in the indicator has been that of a rise, but its value has not touched the levels where bull run tops would have happened in the past. “Bitcoin is not currently overvalued based on network fundamentals,” notes the CryptoQuant founder. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to break out of its range recently as its price has kept up the trend of sideways movement. At present, BTC is trading at around $68,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com