Anchorage Digital’s latest analysis shows Bitcoin options traders remain defensive as near-term uncertainty persists, though markets are not pricing an extreme downside scenario for Strategy.
Bitcoin’s funding rate and orderbook setup signal investor optimism, but ETF outflows and macro red flags could limit BTC’s short-term upside.
Bitcoin bears hold the upper hand in the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry, a potentially early warning that more BTC downside could unfold.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed again to push back above the $80,000 level this week, a price point that has remained stubbornly resistant since early February. After struggling through the latest attempt to break higher, BTC retraced to around $75,400 on Wednesday. Bloomberg attributes part of this stagnation to a less visible but powerful force: positioning in the options market. According to the report, a concentrated set of call options has built up around the $80,000 strike on Deribit. Why Bitcoin Keeps Stalling Near $80,000 As Andy Baehr, managing director of asset management at GSR, explained in the report, many speculators are choosing to sell calls at $80,000 because it is viewed as a “safe” area to monetize premiums. The other side of those trades is where the pressure begins. Dealers who buy the calls often hedge by selling Bitcoin, creating what Baehr described as an “electric fence” effect—an arrangement that makes it harder for BTC to surge through the strike level without an unusual catalyst. That helps explain why Bitcoin has still struggled to clear $80,000. Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Posts $200M Quarterly Loss—Did Hyperliquid Help Avoid New Crisis? The options picture is reinforced by activity levels in broader markets. The report also points to on-chain data and platform metrics suggesting that the group (retail) that drove the earlier rally has largely stepped back. Instead, many are said to be nursing losses or waiting for clearer signals. At the same time, a persistently bearish Bitcoin futures market and slowing spot demand have encouraged some traders to underwrite more call options, aiming to capture premium income on the expectation that Bitcoin will not meaningfully trade above the $80,000 strike over the coming months. May Expiries, Rolling Calls, And Stock-Driven Volatility Deribit’s $80,000 Bitcoin calls appear especially concentrated in the late May and June expiries. According to market data provider Kaiko, out of roughly $1.5 billion in notional call open interest, contracts totaling $160 million are set to expire on May 1, with an additional $566 million expiring on May 29. Those clustering dates can matter because they concentrate both hedging activity and speculative behavior into specific time windows. Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, said the pattern suggests persistent call selling and evidence of “systematic rolling.” In other words, rather than allowing positions to roll off naturally, market participants may keep moving risk forward in a way that maintains pressure near the strike. Erdösi also cautioned that options positioning alone does not tell the whole story, noting there are signs of profit-taking into the $80,000 area for Bitcoin as well. Related Reading: XRP Price Target At $18,000: Expert Says—Only One Condition Must Be Met Finally, the report flags that volatility outside crypto may spill into Bitcoin’s price action. With equities showing sharper movement in recent sessions, BTC has tended to follow along. Bohan Jiang, senior derivatives trader at FalconX, suggested that this could contribute to a more stabilizing pattern around $80,000. In his view, with stocks “chopping around” recently, Bitcoin’s behavior has mirrored that uncertainty—helping explain why attempts to break through the level keep stalling. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is heading into one of the year's largest options expirations at the worst possible moment. CoinGlass data shows roughly $8.07 billion in notional open interest for Deribit's options expiring on April 24, split between 56,300 calls and 49,540 puts. While the ratio itself leans bullish, it's sitting against one of the most uncertain macro […]
The post Bitcoin braces for $8B options expiry as war, oil and the Fed threaten a volatility reset appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The Bitcoin market remains subject to high uncertainty, with bearish sentiments at heightened levels. In the last week, the premier cryptocurrency attempted another failed breakout as prices faced stiff resistance at the $75,000 level. With Bitcoin now back to around $70,000, Glassnode data on the options market shows that traders are pushing for more downside protection alongside expectations of low market volatility. Related Reading: Pundit Shares Everything To Understand About Bitcoin, ‘This Cycle IS Different’ Bitcoin Open Interest Hits New ATH – What Does It Mean? In an X post on March 20, Glassnode provides an update on the Bitcoin options market covering developments on positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiments. In terms of positioning, the analytics platform reported that Bitcoin options Open Interest (OI) reached a new all-time high value ahead of the expected expiry order on Friday. While a rise in OI typically represents an increase in market participation, Glassnode analysts explain that this recent positioning spike may still be indicative of short-term hedging flows. However, the after-effects of quarterly expiry on March 27 would provide more clarity on the recent positioning spike and the long-term sentiment. Meanwhile, the 1-week Implied Volatility (IV) declined from 70% to 53%, while options with longer maturities are also down by ~10 vols. This indicates that options are anticipating less dramatic price swings, despite the unstable macro environment. Related Reading: Binance Leads XRP Whale Exodus As 530M Tokens Exit In Single-Day Surge Bitcoin Put Options In Demand As Traders Hedge Against Price Fall According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin Options Skew, which measures the demand difference between put options (bearish protection) and call options (bullish bets), has stabilized. However, Bitcoin’s rejection at $75,000 has pushed the 25 Delta Skew into the 15-20% range, indicating increased put option demand. This development suggests a rise in market caution as options traders are paying a premium to protect against any potential downside. This creeping market fear is further confirmed by the 24-hour taker flow chart, which shows that options traders’ positioning has now turned defensive. Puts Bought activity is dominating the flows chart with a 30.7% share, while Calls Bought accounts for around 20.9%. Meanwhile, the Put/Call Ratio had also indicated a potential rejection at $75,000. Put actions dominated flows activity above $72,000, indicating that traders lacked belief in the breakout. Following the pullback, traders attempted to buy the dip with a spike in call options, but it was short-lived. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $70,668 following a minor 0.33% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 17.30% and is now valued at $36.67 billion. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
Many traders expect bitcoin to recover toward the $80K level between June and September, Derive said.
Bearish sentiments continue to dominate the Bitcoin market as the premier cryptocurrency looks to record a fifth consecutive monthly loss. Presently, prices are consolidating beneath the $70,000 mark, as market bulls struggle to force a decisive breakout above the resistance zone. Amid this choppy price action, data from the Bitcoin options market shows that traders are beginning to expect less volatility but still acknowledge the fragile nature of the market. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks Bitcoin Volatility Expectations Drop, Market Panic Fades In an X post on February 20, Glassnode shared its weekly Bitcoin options market update, analyzing the traders’ behavior and sentiment in relation to present market conditions. The market analytics firm reports a notable change in volatility expectations that helps to subside the presently heightened bearish sentiments. According to Glassnode analysts, At-the-money (ATM) implied volatility across maturities has significantly dropped to around 48%, down significantly from recent highs. Because ATM IV reflects the market’s expected move, the decline suggests traders are no longer betting on an immediate price crash. Notably, this shift is reinforced by moves in DVOL, an indicator for measuring aggregate implied volatility expectations. Following initial spikes during the market liquidation in late January/early February, DVOL has fallen by roughly 10 volatility points over the past two weeks, signaling that extreme hedging demand is easing out. In addition, the short-term volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive. Earlier this month, one-week VRP plunged to deeply negative levels at -45, as realized volatility far exceeded implied. Since then, implied volatility has repriced higher while realized volatility has stabilized, restoring a premium in short-dated options. Together, these metrics suggest that panic pricing is being reset, and expectations for outsized, volatile moves have declined. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Gets x402 Facilitator For AI Agent Payments: Why This Is Bullish Bitcoin Traders Remain Alert To Downside Despite the cooling in volatility expectations, other metrics show that traders are maintaining a defensive market position. For example, the Put skew, which measures the relative demand for downside protection versus upside exposure, remains quite heightened despite moving off the extreme hedge. After bottoming near the 7 volatility points, the one-week 25-delta skew has rebounded toward 14 vol. The recovery indicates that while extreme fear has subsided, demand for downside insurance remains firm. The taker flow data also tells a similar story. Puts represented two-thirds of last week’s options activity, with outright put buying representing about 34% of total flow. The dominance of protective positioning suggests that market participants are not fully convinced the correction has run its course. In conclusion, the options market is signaling a more measured outlook, where expectations for immediate turmoil have faded, but traders are hedging to hedge against the risk of another downside. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $67,628 following a 0.92% gain in the last 24 hours. More data from Glassnode also shows that Dealers are broadly short gamma across a wide price range between $70,000 and $58,000, a positioning structure that could amplify selling pressure if Bitcoin extends losses. Conversely, a large gamma concentration around $75,000 suggests positioning for a potential rebound. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
The derivatives exchange giant's switch to around-the-clock crypto trading will have a visible impact on liquidity and volatility on weekends, analysts said.
Heavy positioning at lower strikes signals rising demand for downside protection for bitcoin.
The company recorded a non-cash bitcoin valuation loss of 102.2 billion yen ($650 million) due to the cryptocurrency’s price drop.
Options trading on BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, surged to a record 2.33 million contracts on Thursday as bitcoin crashed.
This surge in demand for lower-strike puts contrasts with the post-Trump-election pattern of enthusiasm for high-strike calls.
The spike shows traders rushing for protection, though implied volatility is not yet at extreme levels versus the past year.
The company forecasts revenue of over $100 million for FY2026, with 97.5% of projected sales coming from its Bitcoin Income Generation business.
Bitcoin’s June 26 options expiry provides a clean snapshot of how risk is being framed several months out, and the picture that emerges is one of deliberate insurance. Total open interest for the expiry sits near $3.92 billion in notional terms as of Jan. 20, with puts outnumbering calls at roughly 23.28K versus 19.87K contracts. […]
The post Bitcoin traders are dumping billions into insurance in case the price drops to $75k as June options expiry creates a high-stakes price trap appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Bitcoin is no longer an outlier, says OKX President Hong Fang. it now behaves more like a macro proxy — one that traders use to express their views on growth, risk appetite, and volatility.
By mid-January, open interest in Bitcoin options rose to about $74.1 billion, edging past Bitcoin futures open interest of roughly $65.22 billion. Open interest is the stock of outstanding contracts that have not been closed or expired, so it measures position inventory, not trading activity. So, when options inventory exceeds futures, it often shows a […]
The post Bitcoin options just overtook futures for the first time, and the new way institutions hedge is trapping retail leverage appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Institutions are increasingly using bitcoin options strategies on altcoins to manage price volatility and enhance returns, STS Digital told CoinDesk.
As the year comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a pivotal moment that could lead to increased market volatility. This Friday, December 26, more than $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, marking the largest options expiration in the cryptocurrency’s history. How $23 Billion Roll-Off May Impact Bitcoin Prices Market expert NoLimit took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to elucidate the significance of this event. Understanding options expiration is crucial to grasping its potential impact on the market. In the expert’s words, options are leveraged bets on the future price of Bitcoin: call options anticipate an increase in price, while put options anticipate a decrease. When these options expire, one of two things happens: either they expire worthless, or they trigger hedging actions that necessitate buying or selling in the spot market. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecasts For 2026 Unveiled By AI Simulation: Should Investors Remain Bullish? With a massive $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options rolling off at once, a substantial amount of risk is being removed from dealer books in a single day. This clearing of positions is a primary driver of volatility. For perspective, previous year-end expiries have been significantly smaller: around $6 billion in 2021, $2.4 billion in 2022, $11 billion in 2023, and $19.8 billion in 2024. The sheer scale of this upcoming expiry highlights a shift in the market landscape, indicating that it is now largely shaped by institutional investors rather than retail traders. The specificity of this Friday is particularly noteworthy. Dealers have strategically hedged their positions around key Bitcoin price levels, and as the options expiry arrives, these hedges will be unwound. This process could lead to sharp price movements in either direction, especially given the current low-liquidity conditions in the market. The holiday season has resulted in diminished trading volume, which means that individual orders can impact prices more dramatically—potentially leading to violent price swings. Key Price Ranges Adding to the complexity, fellow market analyst MartyParty highlighted that significant gamma exposure is clustered in critical price ranges, particularly between $86,000 and $110,000. Estimates suggest that high gamma—around $238 million or more in notional sensitivity—will expire, amplifying volatility through delta-hedging flows as Friday approaches. The maximum pain point, where Bitcoin option sellers face the greatest loss, is pegged at $96,000. Related Reading: New Crypto Tax Proposal: Bipartisan House Duo Pushes For Stablecoin Safe Harbor Furthermore, analysts from CryptoQuant weighed in on the situation, noting that while downside positioning has eased with the open interest in $85,000 puts declining, there remains a notable presence of $100,000 Bitcoin calls. This suggests a cautious but persistent optimism for a potential “Santa rally,” according to the analysts. The risk reversals also indicate a softening of bearish sentiment as Bitcoin’s spot price stabilizes. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $87,292, having recorded a loss of 2.5% in the past 24 hours and a 30% gap between the current trading price and the record high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The spread between BTC and S&P 500 implied volatility indices is widening again.
Market positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026, Derive's Forster said.
The $80K BTC put is now the most popular options play on Deribit.
Glassnode has explained how the Bitcoin options Open Interest has been climbing recently and looks set to explore new all-time highs (ATHs). Bitcoin Options Open Interest Has Already Bounced Back From Oct Expiry In a new thread on X, analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the Bitcoin options market. This segment of derivatives trading involves traders betting on future price moves through contracts giving the right (but not the obligation) to sell or buy the cryptocurrency at a set price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Erases Recovery As Coinbase Users Relentlessly Sell Earlier, perpetual futures was the main derivatives trading pathway that investors in the sector used, but recently, demand for options has grown enough to challenge the futures market. One way to gauge interest in options is through the Open Interest, an indicator that measures the total amount of contracts related to the market that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin options Open Interest over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin options Open Interest reached a new record on October 31st. Shortly after, however, the metric saw a plunge due to the contract expiry. Options contracts come with an “expiry” date, on which the contract get either exercised or automatically closed out. A large amount of these expiries coincided on October 31st, which is why the indicator saw a flush. Interestingly, the options Open Interest has been quick to bounce back since then, with its value already halfway back to the ATH. Thus, it would appear demand for options is still alive and well. From the chart, it’s apparent that a similar pattern was also witnessed after the previous major expiry, when the metric gradually recovered and explored new records. “The options market open interest looks set to keep printing new ATHs, expiry after expiry,” explained the analytics firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin At Increased Risk Of Falling To $88,500 Support, Glassnode Warns In terms of trading volume, activity related to the market has been at notable levels since Bitcoin fell below the $107,000 level, as the below chart shows. How the volume related to the options market has changed over the past month | Source: Glassnode on X As Glassnode noted: Options volume has surged since we broke the 107K level and remains elevated showing the constant activities of the traders readjusting their positions and new traders coming in to put on some hedges. As for whether investors are opening bearish or bullish trades with these moves, data suggests bearish bets, or “puts,” initially rose during the plunge, but then bullish bets, or “calls,” saw a surge as price rebounded. Once again, however, puts have seen a rise, indicating investors don’t trust a bottom has appeared yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery as its price is back at $100,900. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
BTC recently fell below $100,000 as macro uncertainties weighed over spot ETF inflows.
Every few months, headlines warn of a looming multi-billion-dollar options expiry poised to shake Bitcoin price. This quarter’s figure, roughly $13 billion in notional contracts, sounds dramatic, yet it’s part of a well-worn pattern on Deribit, the exchange that clears nearly 90% of Bitcoin’s options open interest. The real story isn’t the size of the […]
The post Why $13B in Bitcoin options expiring this week is a price nothing burger appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Key market dynamic points to potential for heightened market volatility ahead of Friday's options expiry.
The Bitcoin options market has quietly become one of the most revealing arenas for gauging trader sentiment. And right now, it’s flashing mixed but telling signals. While Bitcoin has clawed its way back from the early-October washout that vaporized tens of billions in leveraged bets, the options data suggests investors are still hedging their excitement […]
The post Bitcoin options market cautious as traders hedge against volatility appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Options open interest hits $108 billion, signaling a shift toward more sophisticated and regulated market structures.
Behind every rally and every crash lies an invisible engine: options dealers rebalancing billions in Bitcoin exposure. As open interest pushes past $57 billion, it’s the hedging flows, not sentiment, that now dictate price. For most of Bitcoin’s history, price discovery happened in the spot market. Retail traders and long-term holders set the tone, while […]
The post Is Bitcoin now a $57B volatility trade – or just the start? appeared first on CryptoSlate.