On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has surged into a zone that has historically signaled overpriced conditions for the asset. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Crossed Above 2.2 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross of Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross is an indicator based on another metric known as the NVT Ratio. The NVT Ratio keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. The idea behind the indicator is that the ability to transact coins (as gauged by the transaction volume) could be considered as a reflection of the asset’s ‘fair value.’ Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark & Whale Wallets Set New All-Time High Thus, through the comparison of the cryptocurrency’s current value (that is, the market cap) with this fair value, the metric can tell us about whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. When the value of the metric is high, it means the market cap is high compared to the transaction volume. Such a trend could imply BTC may be becoming overheated. On the other hand, the indicator being low could suggest room for the coin to grow relative to its volume. Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of relevance here, is a signaling indicator like the Bollinger bands for the NVT Ratio that aims to locate tops and bottoms in its value. The NVT Golden Cross does so by comparing the short-term trend (represented by the 10-day MA) with the long-term one (30-day MA). Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently registered a sharp uptick and entered into the region above the 2.2 mark (highlighted in red). This zone is where the cryptocurrency’s market cap has historically outpaced the transaction volume to a degree that a reversion to the mean has tended to occur. In other words, it’s where price corrections to the downside have taken place for the asset. Related Reading: Stablecoin Exchange Inflows Plummet $61 Billion—Warning Sign For Bitcoin? Though, it’s visible from the chart that not every top in the NVT Golden Cross inside this territory coincides with a price top. And in many instances that it does, the decline in the asset isn’t to some major degree. So far since the signal has appeared, however, the asset has indeed been going down, a potential sign that the same reversion effect may be in play once more. It now remains to be seen whether downside will be limited, or if this will be one of those instances where the signal was followed by an extended drawdown. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,700, down almost 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Following another impressive weekly performance, the price of Bitcoin is now trading above the psychologically relevant $100,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency jumped as high as $103,800, its highest price level since January 2025. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the BTC price might be in a make-or-break season. Is A BTC Parabolic Rally On The Horizon? Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the social media platform X to reveal that the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric has surpassed a critical threshold. According to the online pundit, this on-chain development suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, which could ultimately impact the price of BTC. Related Reading: New Bitcoin Whales Sitting On 185% Higher Cost Basis Than HODLer Whales, Data Shows The Advanced NVT metric is a refined version of the traditional NVT indicator, which calculates the ratio of Network Value (market cap) by the volume (in USD) transferred through the blockchain daily. This Advanced Network Value to Transaction metric helps to better capture extreme valuation conditions. Hence, when the Advanced NVT metric surges above its long-term moving average by more than two standard deviations (2xSD), it implies that the BTC market cap growth does not correlate with its blockchain volume. Historically, this phenomenon often precedes either an extended price rally or sometimes a severe market correction. According to the data shared by Kesmeci, the Bitcoin Advanced NVT is above the 2xSD threshold, even though it might not persist above this level. The analyst mentioned that the indicator does not spend an extended period above 2xSD unless Bitcoin is on the verge of a parabolic price rally. Kesmeci noted: However, with a parabolic rally, it is possible that it could move much higher than 4xSD. This has happened before with the ETF rally after the approval of Spot ETFs. Furthermore, Kesmeci highlighted that while history suggests that Bitcoin Advanced NVT being above 2xSD is an anomaly that often precedes a rally, it is not set in stone that the indicator must lose the 2xSD level. Hence, investors might want to closely watch this BTC metric above this, as the premier cryptocurrency is currently at a critical juncture, which could define its long-term trajectory. Bitcoin Price At A Glance Over the past week, the price of BTC regained a six-figure valuation for the first time since losing the $100,000 level in February. As of this writing, the market leader sits just above the $103,100 mark, reflecting 0.5% jump in the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, though, Bitcoin’s value is up by more than 6%. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Marks XDC For 3,350% Take-Off As Bullish Metrics Emerge Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView