Bitcoin (BTC) is up 7% over the last two weeks, showing signs of strength despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July 30 meeting. However, some indicators suggest that the market may be entering overheating territory. Bitcoin Market Entering Overheating Territory? According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkesmeci, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is on the rise. Importantly, this upward movement is beginning to signal signs of market overheating. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is a technical indicator that compares short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to identify potential market tops or bottoms. When the short-term NVT crosses above the long-term average, it often signals that Bitcoin is becoming overvalued and may face a short-term correction. Notably, this indicator has successfully predicted three local tops so far in 2025. The first occurred on February 5, when the NVT Golden Cross hit 2.68 while BTC traded at $97,600, followed by a 23.65% correction. On March 24, the indicator peaked at 2.87 with BTC around $87,500, leading to a subsequent correction of 16.06%. Most recently – on June 16 – it rose to 2.21 with BTC trading at $106,800, which was followed by a 9.87% price dip. Currently, the NVT Golden Cross stands at 1.98. Although it hasn’t crossed the key 2.2 threshold yet, its upward trajectory suggests that market overheating could be brewing. The CryptoQuant analyst explained: Breaking its previous high is moderately bullish and shows momentum is building. If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top. But don’t rush to exit – historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days. In conclusion, burakkesmeci noted that while crossing the 2.2 level might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. That said, the opinion on BTC’s short-term price trajectory is largely divided. Analysts Split Over BTC Price Action The NVT Golden Cross suggests that BTC may still have room to rally before hitting a potential local top. However, some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Network Volume Echoes Mid-2021 ‘Stable Equilibrium’ – Is A Big Move Brewing? For instance, noted crypto analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000. At press time, BTC trades at $108,204, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has surged into a zone that has historically signaled overpriced conditions for the asset. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Crossed Above 2.2 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross of Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross is an indicator based on another metric known as the NVT Ratio. The NVT Ratio keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. The idea behind the indicator is that the ability to transact coins (as gauged by the transaction volume) could be considered as a reflection of the asset’s ‘fair value.’ Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark & Whale Wallets Set New All-Time High Thus, through the comparison of the cryptocurrency’s current value (that is, the market cap) with this fair value, the metric can tell us about whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. When the value of the metric is high, it means the market cap is high compared to the transaction volume. Such a trend could imply BTC may be becoming overheated. On the other hand, the indicator being low could suggest room for the coin to grow relative to its volume. Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of relevance here, is a signaling indicator like the Bollinger bands for the NVT Ratio that aims to locate tops and bottoms in its value. The NVT Golden Cross does so by comparing the short-term trend (represented by the 10-day MA) with the long-term one (30-day MA). Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently registered a sharp uptick and entered into the region above the 2.2 mark (highlighted in red). This zone is where the cryptocurrency’s market cap has historically outpaced the transaction volume to a degree that a reversion to the mean has tended to occur. In other words, it’s where price corrections to the downside have taken place for the asset. Related Reading: Stablecoin Exchange Inflows Plummet $61 Billion—Warning Sign For Bitcoin? Though, it’s visible from the chart that not every top in the NVT Golden Cross inside this territory coincides with a price top. And in many instances that it does, the decline in the asset isn’t to some major degree. So far since the signal has appeared, however, the asset has indeed been going down, a potential sign that the same reversion effect may be in play once more. It now remains to be seen whether downside will be limited, or if this will be one of those instances where the signal was followed by an extended drawdown. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,700, down almost 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross could indicate that the asset isn’t overheated yet, despite its price marching to a new all-time high (ATH). Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Still Outside Of Overbought Zone In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross for Bitcoin. The NVT Ratio is an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. If the utility of the network (measured in terms of the transfer volume) is considered as a reflection of its ‘true’ value, then this ratio can be used for judging whether the price is undervalued or overvalued. Related Reading: $3.8 Billion In Capital Inflows Behind Ethereum’s Post-Pectra Surge, Data Shows When the value of the indicator is high, it means the value of the network (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins. Such a trend may be a sign that the asset is becoming overpriced. On the other hand, the indicator being low could imply room for growth in the cryptocurrency’s market cap, as its value is low when compared to the transaction volume. In the context of the current topic, a derivative form of the NVT Ratio is the indicator of interest. This metric, known as the NVT Golden Cross, is a signaling indicator for the NVT Ratio similar to the Bollinger Bands, telling us about whether the ratio’s value is near a top or bottom. The NVT Golden Cross compares two moving averages (MAs) of the NVT Ratio in order to determine this: the 10-day MA to gauge the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term one. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has been on the rise recently as the cryptocurrency’s price has rallied to a new ATH. At present, the indicator is sitting at a value of 1.5. In the chart, the quant has highlighted two zones for the metric that have been of significance in the past. The region beyond 2.2 (shaded in red) corresponds to the territory where tops generally occur for BTC and that under -1.6 (green) to the bottoming zone. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For New ATHs? What The Charts Say Clearly, despite the recent uptrend, the NVT Golden Cross hasn’t yet broken into the red zone, a potential sign that the cryptocurrency may still not be too overpriced. Naturally, this could allow room for the run to continue further. BTC Price Bitcoin set a new record earlier today as its price briefly went to $109,400, surpassing the previous ATH around $109,200. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross is currently showing a trajectory that could suggest a bearish outcome for the BTC price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Near Overheated Territory Right Now As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the NVT Golden Cross has a high value at the moment. The “NVT Ratio” is an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. The market cap here is simply the total value of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply at the current spot price, while the transaction volume is a measure of the total amount of the asset that’s becoming involved in transfer activities on the network. Related Reading: XRP & These Altcoins Share The Same TA Fate—What’s Coming? When the value of the NVT Ratio is high, it means BTC’s value (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend can be a sign that the coin is overvalued. On the other hand, the metric being low suggests the cryptocurrency’s price could be due a rebound to the upside, as the market cap isn’t overheated compared to the volume. In the context of the current topic, a modified form of the NVT Ratio known as the NVT Golden Cross is the indicator of interest. The NVT Golden Cross is a metric similar to the Bollinger Bands, which compares the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio against its long-term one to determine whether a top or bottom is near. The indicator uses the 10-day moving average (MA) for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term one. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross recently touched a high value. The indicator’s rise was so sharp that it entered into a special zone past the 2.2 mark. In this region, the asset’s price has often formed some sort of top. The same also held true during the visit into the zone this time around, with BTC’s price witnessing a bearish reversal. As the coin’s price has gone through a retrace in the past week, the metric has also cooled off. Despite the decline, however, its value still remains relatively high. As the quant notes, Currently, the NVT indicates that the pullback is likely to continue and that the recent price rise was driven by manipulation. For the upward trend to be sustainable, transaction volumes on the network must increase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly Preview: Tariffs, Whales, And Volatility Ahead Historically, bottoms have tended to occur when the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has gone under the -1.6 mark. So far, the indicator has only dropped to 1.8, meaning that it still has quite the ways to go before it enters into this region. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,300, down almost 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has plummeted recently. Here’s what this could mean for BTC’s price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Plunged Into Bottom Zone Recently As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC NVT Golden Cross has declined to the lowest level in two months recently. The “NVT Ratio” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. When the value of this metric is high, it means the value of the network (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend implies the asset may be overvalued. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capital Inflows See Notable Slowdown, But Is This A Worry? On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests the cryptocurrency could be due to a bullish rebound as its volume is high compared to its market cap. In the context of the current topic, the normal version of the NVT Ratio isn’t of interest, but rather a modified form known as the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio with its long-term one to determine whether its value is near a top or bottom. The NVT Golden Cross uses the 10-day moving average (MA) of the NVT Ratio to track short-term trends and the 30-day MA for long-term ones. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last couple of months: In the graph, the quant has highlighted two zones that have historically proven to be relevant to the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. The red zone, situated above a value of 2.2, is where the indicator has been the most likely to see a reversion to the mean zero level. Similarly, the green zone corresponding to values under -1.6 is where bottoms in the metric have tended to form. As the color coding already implies, ventures into these zones have often meant a bullish and bearish outcome for BTC, respectively. From the chart, it’s apparent that the NVT Golden Cross surged into the overheated territory around the time of last month’s price top. Since then, the indicator has gradually been making its way down, with its value today finding itself submerged in the undervalued region. Related Reading: Arbitrum (ARB) Primed For 46% Rally If This Happens, Analyst Reveals The current value of -2.21 is the lowest that the metric has been in around 60 days. Given the historical pattern, it’s possible that this could imply Bitcoin may be near a local bottom, if one isn’t already in. BTC Price Bitcoin has settled into a phase of sideways movement during the last few days as its price is still trading around the $105,200 mark. Featured image from iStock.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has dipped into the bottom region, which may be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Seen A Sharp Decline Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is giving a bottom signal for the third time in 2024. The “NVT ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. When the value of this metric is high, it means the asset’s value (that is, the market cap) is high when compared to the network’s ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend could imply the BTC price is overvalued. Related Reading: XRP Sharks & Whales Push Bags To ATH As Price Rockets 19% On the other hand, the low indicator suggests the market cap is low compared to the transfer volume, so the cryptocurrency’s price could have room for growth. In the context of the current topic, a modified version of the NVT ratio is the actual indicator of relevance: the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend of the metric with its long-term one to determine the appearances of local tops and bottoms in the NVT ratio. More particularly, the 10-day moving average (MA) stands for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the over the past few months: In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two regions of the NVT Golden Cross that have historically been relevant for cryptocurrency. At values above 2.2, the asset can be assumed to be close to the top, as here, the short-term trend of the NVT ratio has significantly surpassed its long-term one. Similarly, the zone under -1.6 is where bottoms can probably form. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has observed a plunge recently as the Bitcoin price itself has crashed down. The metric has entered the latter region, suggesting that the coin may have become underpriced. This is the third time that the NVT Golden Cross has breached this territory this year, with the first instance occurring back in January, during the price drawdown that had followed the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. This period of the asset being undervalued was followed by a rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Jumps 39% From Crash Low, But Is This Rally Sustainable? The second instance of the indicator entering the bottoming zone was last month, with the low paving the way for a rally toward $70,000. Given that both of these occurrences proved bullish for Bitcoin, it remains to be seen where this third one leads. BTC Price Bitcoin has furthered its recovery during the past day as its price has now broken back above the $58,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross indicator attained overheated values coinciding with the recent local top in the price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Surged To 3.17 During Recent Peak An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the NVT Golden Cross may have served as an indicator of the recent top in cryptocurrency prices. The “NVT” refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and transaction volume (both in USD). This ratio is generally used to determine whether the asset’s price is fair or not. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: $5.2 Billion Sold At Loss When the indicator has a high value, the asset’s price (the market cap) is high compared to its utility (the transaction volume). Such a trend may suggest that the coin could be overvalued currently. On the other hand, the low metric could suggest the network isn’t valued fairly compared to its high ability to transact capital, and as such, its price may be due to an uplift. In the context of the current discussion, the NVT itself isn’t interesting, but rather, a modified version called the NVT Golden Cross is. This metric compares the short-term trend of the NVT (10-day moving average) against its long-term trend (30-day MA). Like the NVT, this variant is also used to estimate the fairness of the asset. Historically, values greater than 2.2 have been a signal that BTC is overheated, as the short-term trend is notably outpacing the long-term at these levels. Similarly, values under the -1.6 level may indicate that the cryptocurrency is undervalued; hence, its price may likely form a bottom and find a rebound soon. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross rose to relatively high levels earlier. This growth happened as the asset’s price rallied towards the $71,000 level. The metric had touched the 3.17 mark in this surge, which suggests the coin may have become too overpriced. Indeed, the asset followed this by observing a sharp drawdown, which took it back under the $65,000 level. As the quant has marked in the chart, a similar pattern of the NVT Golden Cross hitting these high levels and resulting in a price correction was observed at different points over the last few years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders No Longer Extremely Greedy: Rebound Signal? Since the latest overheated signal, the indicator has cooled off alongside the Bitcoin price, although it hasn’t gone towards the negative side yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has now climbed back to $67,800. Looks like the price of the asset has seen some uplift over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com