On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has surged into a zone that has historically signaled overpriced conditions for the asset. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Crossed Above 2.2 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross of Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross is an indicator based on another metric known as the NVT Ratio. The NVT Ratio keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. The idea behind the indicator is that the ability to transact coins (as gauged by the transaction volume) could be considered as a reflection of the asset’s ‘fair value.’ Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark & Whale Wallets Set New All-Time High Thus, through the comparison of the cryptocurrency’s current value (that is, the market cap) with this fair value, the metric can tell us about whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. When the value of the metric is high, it means the market cap is high compared to the transaction volume. Such a trend could imply BTC may be becoming overheated. On the other hand, the indicator being low could suggest room for the coin to grow relative to its volume. Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of relevance here, is a signaling indicator like the Bollinger bands for the NVT Ratio that aims to locate tops and bottoms in its value. The NVT Golden Cross does so by comparing the short-term trend (represented by the 10-day MA) with the long-term one (30-day MA). Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the metric over the last couple of years. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently registered a sharp uptick and entered into the region above the 2.2 mark (highlighted in red). This zone is where the cryptocurrency’s market cap has historically outpaced the transaction volume to a degree that a reversion to the mean has tended to occur. In other words, it’s where price corrections to the downside have taken place for the asset. Related Reading: Stablecoin Exchange Inflows Plummet $61 Billion—Warning Sign For Bitcoin? Though, it’s visible from the chart that not every top in the NVT Golden Cross inside this territory coincides with a price top. And in many instances that it does, the decline in the asset isn’t to some major degree. So far since the signal has appeared, however, the asset has indeed been going down, a potential sign that the same reversion effect may be in play once more. It now remains to be seen whether downside will be limited, or if this will be one of those instances where the signal was followed by an extended drawdown. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,700, down almost 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross could indicate that the asset isn’t overheated yet, despite its price marching to a new all-time high (ATH). Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Still Outside Of Overbought Zone In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross for Bitcoin. The NVT Ratio is an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. If the utility of the network (measured in terms of the transfer volume) is considered as a reflection of its ‘true’ value, then this ratio can be used for judging whether the price is undervalued or overvalued. Related Reading: $3.8 Billion In Capital Inflows Behind Ethereum’s Post-Pectra Surge, Data Shows When the value of the indicator is high, it means the value of the network (that is, the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins. Such a trend may be a sign that the asset is becoming overpriced. On the other hand, the indicator being low could imply room for growth in the cryptocurrency’s market cap, as its value is low when compared to the transaction volume. In the context of the current topic, a derivative form of the NVT Ratio is the indicator of interest. This metric, known as the NVT Golden Cross, is a signaling indicator for the NVT Ratio similar to the Bollinger Bands, telling us about whether the ratio’s value is near a top or bottom. The NVT Golden Cross compares two moving averages (MAs) of the NVT Ratio in order to determine this: the 10-day MA to gauge the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term one. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has been on the rise recently as the cryptocurrency’s price has rallied to a new ATH. At present, the indicator is sitting at a value of 1.5. In the chart, the quant has highlighted two zones for the metric that have been of significance in the past. The region beyond 2.2 (shaded in red) corresponds to the territory where tops generally occur for BTC and that under -1.6 (green) to the bottoming zone. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For New ATHs? What The Charts Say Clearly, despite the recent uptrend, the NVT Golden Cross hasn’t yet broken into the red zone, a potential sign that the cryptocurrency may still not be too overpriced. Naturally, this could allow room for the run to continue further. BTC Price Bitcoin set a new record earlier today as its price briefly went to $109,400, surpassing the previous ATH around $109,200. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has dipped into the bottom region, which may be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Seen A Sharp Decline Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is giving a bottom signal for the third time in 2024. The “NVT ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. When the value of this metric is high, it means the asset’s value (that is, the market cap) is high when compared to the network’s ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend could imply the BTC price is overvalued. Related Reading: XRP Sharks & Whales Push Bags To ATH As Price Rockets 19% On the other hand, the low indicator suggests the market cap is low compared to the transfer volume, so the cryptocurrency’s price could have room for growth. In the context of the current topic, a modified version of the NVT ratio is the actual indicator of relevance: the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend of the metric with its long-term one to determine the appearances of local tops and bottoms in the NVT ratio. More particularly, the 10-day moving average (MA) stands for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the over the past few months: In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two regions of the NVT Golden Cross that have historically been relevant for cryptocurrency. At values above 2.2, the asset can be assumed to be close to the top, as here, the short-term trend of the NVT ratio has significantly surpassed its long-term one. Similarly, the zone under -1.6 is where bottoms can probably form. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has observed a plunge recently as the Bitcoin price itself has crashed down. The metric has entered the latter region, suggesting that the coin may have become underpriced. This is the third time that the NVT Golden Cross has breached this territory this year, with the first instance occurring back in January, during the price drawdown that had followed the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. This period of the asset being undervalued was followed by a rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Jumps 39% From Crash Low, But Is This Rally Sustainable? The second instance of the indicator entering the bottoming zone was last month, with the low paving the way for a rally toward $70,000. Given that both of these occurrences proved bullish for Bitcoin, it remains to be seen where this third one leads. BTC Price Bitcoin has furthered its recovery during the past day as its price has now broken back above the $58,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross indicator attained overheated values coinciding with the recent local top in the price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Surged To 3.17 During Recent Peak An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the NVT Golden Cross may have served as an indicator of the recent top in cryptocurrency prices. The “NVT” refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and transaction volume (both in USD). This ratio is generally used to determine whether the asset’s price is fair or not. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: $5.2 Billion Sold At Loss When the indicator has a high value, the asset’s price (the market cap) is high compared to its utility (the transaction volume). Such a trend may suggest that the coin could be overvalued currently. On the other hand, the low metric could suggest the network isn’t valued fairly compared to its high ability to transact capital, and as such, its price may be due to an uplift. In the context of the current discussion, the NVT itself isn’t interesting, but rather, a modified version called the NVT Golden Cross is. This metric compares the short-term trend of the NVT (10-day moving average) against its long-term trend (30-day MA). Like the NVT, this variant is also used to estimate the fairness of the asset. Historically, values greater than 2.2 have been a signal that BTC is overheated, as the short-term trend is notably outpacing the long-term at these levels. Similarly, values under the -1.6 level may indicate that the cryptocurrency is undervalued; hence, its price may likely form a bottom and find a rebound soon. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross rose to relatively high levels earlier. This growth happened as the asset’s price rallied towards the $71,000 level. The metric had touched the 3.17 mark in this surge, which suggests the coin may have become too overpriced. Indeed, the asset followed this by observing a sharp drawdown, which took it back under the $65,000 level. As the quant has marked in the chart, a similar pattern of the NVT Golden Cross hitting these high levels and resulting in a price correction was observed at different points over the last few years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders No Longer Extremely Greedy: Rebound Signal? Since the latest overheated signal, the indicator has cooled off alongside the Bitcoin price, although it hasn’t gone towards the negative side yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has now climbed back to $67,800. Looks like the price of the asset has seen some uplift over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com