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Bitcoin’s price has struggled to maintain stability above $102,000 in recent days, and data shows this is due to an apparent imbalance between selling pressure and fresh demand.  On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that while long-term holders have been actively taking profits, the market is showing limited capacity to absorb their sell-offs. This is a contrast to previous phases of the bull run, where rising demand was able to offset increased long-term holder activity.  Related Reading: XRP’s Price Doesn’t Match Its Growing Real-World Use, Study Finds Rising Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Mirrors Past Bull Cycles Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which was initially shared by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shows an interesting change in dynamics among Bitcoin holder activity that could shape the cryptocurrency’s next move. Julio Moreno explained that long-term holder (LTH) selling is a normal pattern in bull markets as investors take profits when Bitcoin approaches or surpasses all-time highs. The CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day sum of LTH spending, represented by the purple line in the chart image below, has been increasing since early October.  This behavior follows previous bullish rally phases, such as those seen in early and late 2024, when profit-taking coincided with expanding demand, and so Bitcoin pushed to new record prices. The chart accompanying Moreno’s post shows green areas representing periods of positive apparent demand growth and red areas indicating contraction. During January to March 2024 and November to December 2024,  LTH selloffs occurred as demand expanded. Bitcoin Long-term Holder Spending Since October 2025, however, that trend has reversed. Even as LTH selling increased, demand has entered a red zone, showing that the market’s ability to absorb this selling pressure has weakened. This has coincided with Bitcoin’s struggle to sustain its position above $102,000, suggesting that price growth might be losing momentum. Sustained Weak Demand Could Delay Next Rally Moreno noted that the critical factor to watch isn’t just the volume of long-term holder sell-offs but whether demand growth can keep pace.  When demand is strong, the influx of supply from long-term holders often drives healthy consolidation before another price surge. In contrast, when demand falls behind, the result tends to be prolonged corrections or sideways movement. A large portion of that demand now comes from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen a sharp slowdown in inflows. Data from SosoValue shows that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended last week with net outflows of $558.44 million on Friday, November 7, one of the largest single-day outflows in weeks. Related Reading: Get Ready — The End Of November Will Be Massive For XRP, CEO Says Unless Bitcoin’s apparent demand begins to recover in the coming weeks and LTH sell-offs continue, then this might continue to weigh on price action and postpone the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally. In this case, we might continue to see Bitcoin consolidating between $101,000 and $103,000 for the rest of November.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,655, down by 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) recently bounced from the $100,000 level, sparking hopes of a bullish reversal. However, traders remain cautious, as this rebound could also be a temporary bull trap. With key resistance looming around $105,000–$106,000, the market’s next move will be critical in determining whether BTC can sustain an upward trend or resume its downtrend. A Possible Bullish Reversal After Reclaiming $102,000 According to Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin is showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal. In the post on X, Snyder highlighted that BTC bounced from the recent lows and reclaimed the $102,000 level, signaling renewed buying interest. This recovery comes after a period of weakness, suggesting that the market may be attempting to stabilize before the next major move. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Is Important If Wave 5 Corrects To $94,000 Snyder emphasized the importance of maintaining this momentum and establishing a higher low around $101,400, which would push the bullish scenario into a more sustained rally. Conversely, a failure to maintain support here could indicate lingering bearish pressure, so this level is critical for gauging market sentiment. In the meantime, the expert is closely monitoring lower time frame charts for potential scalp-long opportunities if a reversal occurs near $101,400. This tactical approach allows active traders to capitalize on short-term swings while waiting for confirmation of a broader bullish trend.  Key resistance remains at $104,700, which will be a decisive level for determining the next leg of the move. A successful breakout above this resistance could open the path toward $107,500, signaling that bulls are regaining control. However, given that it’s the weekend, Snyder cautioned that traders should be prepared for sudden swings or false breakouts as liquidity tends to be lower during this period. Bitcoin Reclaims Momentum, But $105,000–$106,000 Holds The Key In his latest update, market expert and investor Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin briefly dropped below the $100,000 mark before bouncing back. The short-lived dip highlights ongoing uncertainty and the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers at key psychological levels. Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend However, Ted cautioned that this rebound feels like a potential bull trap. While the price recovered quickly, the underlying momentum may still favor the bears, suggesting that traders should remain vigilant before assuming a sustained upward trend. He emphasized that until Bitcoin can reclaim the $105,000–$106,000 zone, the probability of further downside remains higher. Without a confirmed break above this critical resistance area, the market could continue to support levels as low as $93,394, keeping the short-term outlook skewed toward a possible downtrend. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Colin has raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price mirroring gold’s parabolic move. The analyst further revealed how this could play out for BTC if it were to happen eventually.  What Will Happen If The Bitcoin Price Mirrors Gold In an X post, Colin indicated that the Bitcoin price will record another uptrend as soon as next week if it were to follow gold’s move. He opined that it is unlikely the flagship crypto will not witness another significant move to the upside, given that gold and stocks saw meteoric rises to new all-time highs (ATHs) in recent months.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Says Hold Despite Crash Below $100,000, What’s Happening? Coilin further remarked that money will still flow toward crypto, with a delay, as he highlighted in the gold vs BTC chart. He added that the gold top would forecast a top for the Bitcoin price in January 2026 when shifted forward by 80 days. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could still rally to $175,000 if its bull market extends into January next year.  Colin admitted that this could be wrong for the Bitcoin price, but noted that many other metrics were pointing toward more upward price action for BTC. Meanwhile, he also highlighted the fact that sentiment was getting bearish in the crypto market. The market is currently on a downtrend, with the BTC dropping below $100,000 on several occasions this week.  This has raised concerns that the Bitcoin price may already be in a bear market. However, Colin has indicated that BTC could still rally to new all-time highs before this cycle ends. His prediction aligns with that of the likes of Standard Chartered, which has predicted that BTC could reach between $150,000 and $20,000 by year-end.    Why The BTC Top May Not Be In In another X post, Colin also explained why the top might not be in for the Bitcoin price in this bull run. He noted that the intersection of the 1150-day SMA with previous bull run peak times the top of the next peak. This happened in both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, which marked the top for BTC at the time.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price October Top Is Back With A New Prediction Now, the analyst said that this moving average hasn’t quite lined up with the $65,000 top from the previous cycle, indicating that BTC still has more room to rally to the upside in this market cycle. Colin added that this 1150-day SMA, if projected out, will indicate a top for the Bitcoin price around late December this year or January next year. He reiterated that all metrics collectively point to a top around late December or January next year.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $102,400, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

As the Bitcoin market continues to experience a flurry of sales, which started in mid-October, recent on-chain data paints a somewhat optimistic picture of the cryptocurrency’s future. The question is — is the Bitcoin bottom in? Is A BTC Price Reversal Imminent?  In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous crypto pundit Sunny Mom shared that a bottom formation for the Bitcoin price may be around the corner. Sunny Mom’s post was based on four different on-chain metrics, all looking into the behavior of Bitcoin’s market participants. The first of these is the Futures Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) metric, which helps track the net difference between aggressive buy and sell volumes (referred to as taker orders) in the Bitcoin futures market over the last 90 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Craze: OI Looks Set To Keep Printing ATHs, Glassnode Says According to the online pundit, the more dominant sell zones (in red) are turning into neutral zones. This means the leveraged short positions (typically held by the most fearful and aggressive of Bitcoin’s market participants) are slowly taking their exits, thus pointing to the weakening of these speculative hands. Next, the on-chain analyst referenced data from the Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) metric. Although the number of speculative sellers is declining, the spot CVD still appears to be in the red. Typically, a ‘red’ reading from this metric suggests that Bitcoin’s holders are still selling their coins.  Another interesting event is that the Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has fallen to a hallmark low. For context, this metric measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s supply and the supply of stablecoins (like USDT and USDC).  A high SSR indicates that there are fewer stablecoins in comparison to Bitcoin. As an extension, it points out that there is lower buying power to purchase Bitcoin in order to send its price to the upside. On the other hand, a low SSR indicates a relative abundance of stablecoins compared to the premier cryptocurrency, suggesting the presence of more potential buying power in the Bitcoin market.  Upon examination of past price action, it is apparent that periods where the SSR read ‘significantly low’ have often preceded significant price rebounds of the flagship cryptocurrency. If history is anything to go by, the analyst inferred that we might be set for another rebound, seeing as the SSR metric currently hovers around a historical low. Lastly, Sunny Mom explained that data from the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) also supports the overall conjecture of an imminent price bottom. At the moment, the aSOPR reads around 1.0 — a level whose breach in April 2025 preceded a major price reversal.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $102,510, reflecting an over 1% increase in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Most Dangerous Bitcoin Boom Yet? Ray Dalio Warns Of ‘Stimulus Into A Bubble’ Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Glassnode has explained how the Bitcoin options Open Interest has been climbing recently and looks set to explore new all-time highs (ATHs). Bitcoin Options Open Interest Has Already Bounced Back From Oct Expiry In a new thread on X, analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the Bitcoin options market. This segment of derivatives trading involves traders betting on future price moves through contracts giving the right (but not the obligation) to sell or buy the cryptocurrency at a set price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Erases Recovery As Coinbase Users Relentlessly Sell Earlier, perpetual futures was the main derivatives trading pathway that investors in the sector used, but recently, demand for options has grown enough to challenge the futures market. One way to gauge interest in options is through the Open Interest, an indicator that measures the total amount of contracts related to the market that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin options Open Interest over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin options Open Interest reached a new record on October 31st. Shortly after, however, the metric saw a plunge due to the contract expiry. Options contracts come with an “expiry” date, on which the contract get either exercised or automatically closed out. A large amount of these expiries coincided on October 31st, which is why the indicator saw a flush. Interestingly, the options Open Interest has been quick to bounce back since then, with its value already halfway back to the ATH. Thus, it would appear demand for options is still alive and well. From the chart, it’s apparent that a similar pattern was also witnessed after the previous major expiry, when the metric gradually recovered and explored new records. “The options market open interest looks set to keep printing new ATHs, expiry after expiry,” explained the analytics firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin At Increased Risk Of Falling To $88,500 Support, Glassnode Warns In terms of trading volume, activity related to the market has been at notable levels since Bitcoin fell below the $107,000 level, as the below chart shows. How the volume related to the options market has changed over the past month | Source: Glassnode on X As Glassnode noted: Options volume has surged since we broke the 107K level and remains elevated showing the constant activities of the traders readjusting their positions and new traders coming in to put on some hedges. As for whether investors are opening bearish or bullish trades with these moves, data suggests bearish bets, or “puts,” initially rose during the plunge, but then bullish bets, or “calls,” saw a surge as price rebounded. Once again, however, puts have seen a rise, indicating investors don’t trust a bottom has appeared yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery as its price is back at $100,900. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery above $104,000 as data shows the Coinbase Premium Gap has continued to be negative. Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Gap Has Been Red Recently As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, investors on Coinbase keep selling Bitcoin. The indicator of relevance here is the “Coinbase Premium Gap,” which measures the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). Related Reading: Bitcoin At Increased Risk Of Falling To $88,500 Support, Glassnode Warns When the value of this metric is positive, it means the asset is trading at a higher rate on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend suggests the users of the former are applying a higher buying pressure (or lower selling pressure) than those of the latter. On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark implies Binance users are the ones participating in a higher amount of accumulation as they have pushed the asset to a higher price on the platform. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows how the Coinbase Premium Gap has fluctuated over the past week: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed mostly in the negative zone during the past week, implying users on Coinbase have been participating in selling. The metric briefly turned neutral-green as the cryptocurrency witnessed a surge back above $104,000, but since then, the indicator’s value has again plummeted, and with it, the BTC price has erased its recovery. Since the start of 2024, Bitcoin has often reacted to movements in the Coinbase Premium Gap in a similar manner, showcasing how Coinbase users have been a driving force in the market. The exchange is mainly used by American investors, especially large institutional entities like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), so the Coinbase Premium Gap essentially reflects how the US-based whales differ in behavior from Binance’s global traffic. Since the indicator has been red recently, it would appear that the American institutions have been distributing the cryptocurrency. Considering the pattern over the last couple of years, it’s possible that BTC’s recovery might depend on whether a bullish sentiment can return among this cohort. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 In some other news, a movement of old tokens has just been spotted on the Bitcoin blockchain, as Maartunn has highlighted in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that a stack of over 13,000 BTC that has been dormant for between 3 and 5 years has become involved in a transaction, a potential sign that a HODLer may be gearing up for selling. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $100,200, down almost 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest market pullback has pushed its MVRV ratio back into a critical zone that has historically been associated with macro correction lows and early-stage recovery setups. The MVRV metric now reflects a valuation reset similar to the conditions that preceded major rebound phases in prior cycles. Why The Reset Reinforces Bitcoin Value Proposition The crypto bearish performance echoes through the Bitcoin community as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio dips into the critical 1.8 to 2.0 range, a zone significant for past cycle corrections where BTC found its footing before initiating a recovery. An ambassador and market expert, BitBull, has revealed on X that for those unfamiliar with its significance, the MVRV ratio compares BTC’s current market value to its realized value, which is what investors actually paid for their coins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Flatline: Bull Score Crashes To 0 – What This Means For The Market However, when this ratio dips near 2, it signals that a majority of holders are hovering around their cost basis. At this point, there’s no greed left in the system, just conviction. Historically, this 1.8 to 2.0 MVRV range has coincided with major market bottoms in June 2021, November 2022, and April 2025, when the market felt broken, but BTC was quietly resetting. With the MVRV ratio currently re-entering this same critical zone, combined with the massive liquidations observed recently and a palpable sense of panic across the market, the pattern feels eerily familiar. Every time sentiment turns into hopelessness, on-chain data would show a different story of exhaustion, not collapse. BitBull personally views this phase as one of compression, not capitulation, indicating short-term pain but a long-term opportunity. The same market dynamics cycle that previously punished excessive leverage is now washing out the remaining weak hands. BitBull concluded that if history rhymes, this will be the part of the story where the bottom gets written, not the top. Why Liquidity Matters More Than Interest Rates Liquidity has been a crucial component of the Bitcoin market. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that if there is one macro factor that drives BTC and the broader crypto market, it’s the amount of global liquidity within the financial system, not interest rates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidity Grabs: Institutions Target Low-Volume Zones To Move BTC Price This correlation is clear from comparing the global liquidity index with BTC’s price movements over the years. Daan has recently observed a shift where global liquidity has stopped expanding and begun to trend downwards again.  However, this change has put a halt to BTS’s upward momentum, combined with the anticipated profit-taking behavior observed during the 4-year market cycle. “Once global liquidity starts expanding at a rapid pace, the market environment for crypto will become significantly more supportive than it is currently,” the expert noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Ray Dalio has fired a shot across the macro bow, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s latest balance-sheet guidance risks “stimulating into a bubble” rather than stabilizing a weakening economy—an inversion of the classic post-crisis QE playbook with potentially seismic implications for hard assets, including Bitcoin. In a post titled “Stimulating Into a Bubble,” Dalio frames the Fed’s pivot—ending quantitative tightening and signaling that reserves will need to start growing again—as the next milestone in the late stage of the Big Debt Cycle. “Did you see that the Fed’s announcement that it will stop QT and begin QE?” he wrote, cautioning that, even if described as a technical maneuver, it is “an easing move… to track the progression of the Big Debt Cycle.” If balance-sheet expansion coincides with rate cuts and persistent fiscal deficits, Dalio warns, markets will be staring at a “classic monetary and fiscal interaction of the Fed and the Treasury to monetize government debt.” He adds that, in such a setup—high equity prices, tight credit spreads, low unemployment, above-target inflation, and an AI-led mania—“it will look to me like the Fed is stimulating into a bubble.” Related Reading: Did Bitcoin Just Bottom? Trader Says The Low Must Form Now The policy context for Dalio’s warning is not imaginary. After months of tightening liquidity and ebbing bank reserves, the Fed has announced it will end balance-sheet runoff (QT). Chair Jerome Powell underscored that, within the ample-reserves framework, the central bank will at some point have to add reserves again: “At a certain point, you’ll want reserves to start gradually growing to keep up with the size of the banking system and the size of the economy. So we’ll be adding reserves at a certain point,” he said at his October 29 press conference. Officials and many sell-side desks have emphasized that reserve management need not equal a return to crisis-era QE. The practical similarity: if the Fed is again a steady net buyer of Treasuries to maintain “ample” reserves as deficits persist, the market experience can rhyme with QE even without the label. While Dalio spars Bitcoin from his post, the mechanics are familiar to Bitcoin investors. He argues that when central banks buy bonds and push real yields down, “what happens next depends on where the liquidity goes.” If it remains in financial assets, “multiples expand, risk spreads compress, and gold rises,” producing “financial asset inflation.” Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Slashes Bitcoin EOY Price Target To $120,000 If it seeps into goods and services, inflation rises and real returns can erode. Crucially for cross-asset allocation, Dalio frames relative returns explicitly: with gold yielding 0% and, say, a 10-year Treasury yielding ~4%, gold outperforms if its price appreciation is expected to exceed that rate, especially as inflation expectations rise and the currency’s purchasing power falls. In that environment, “the more money and credit central banks are making, the higher I expect the inflation rate to be, and the less I like bonds relative to gold.” What This Means For Bitcoin Commentators immediately translated those mechanics for Bitcoin. “Fed resumes QE → more liquidity → real interest rates fall,” wrote Coin Bureau CEO Nick Puckrin. “Falling real rates → bonds & cash become unattractive → money chases risk and hard assets… Inflation risk rises → investors hedge with gold, commodities, and digital stores of value.” He highlighted Dalio’s own language—“gold rises so there is financial asset inflation,” and QE “pushes real yields down and pushes P/E multiples up”—before concluding: “Bitcoin thrives in precisely that environment… it’s digital gold on steroids.” Millionaire investor Thomas Kralow sharpened the timing risk embedded in Dalio’s framework: this would not be “stimulus into a depression” but “stimulus into a mania.” In his words, liquidity would “flood already overheated markets… stocks melt up, gold rips, and crypto… goes vertical,” with the usual risk-on sequence across the crypto complex. His caveat mirrors Dalio’s late-cycle caution: a liquidity melt-up now, then—on a longer horizon—re-acceleration in inflation, a forced policy reversal, and a violent bubble pop. For Bitcoin, the near-term transmission is straightforward. Lower real yields and expanding liquidity historically coincide with stronger performance of long-duration, high-beta, and scarcity narratives; similar to 1999-style melt-ups and late-cycle surges in hard assets, including gold—and, by extension, BTC as a “digital gold” proxy. But the medium-to-long-term tension is unresolved: if the same easing stokes renewed inflation pressure, the exit—the point at which policy must tighten into the bubble—becomes the regime break Dalio is flagging. Dalio’s bottom line is not a trading signal but a regime warning. “Whether this becomes a full and classic stimulative QE (with big net purchases) remains to be seen,” he writes. If the Fed is indeed easing into a bubble, Bitcoin may benefit on the way up—but that path, by Dalio’s own schema, ends with impact. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $99,717. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has identified a concerning trend in the Bitcoin (BTC) and broader cryptocurrency market that adds to the ongoing sentiment of bearishness among investors.  Over 1 Million BTC Sold By OG Investors Since June In a recent post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Edwards highlighted that “OG” Bitcoin whales are actively cashing out their holdings. Related Reading: XRP Price Correction Is Far From Over: Bearish Divergence Signals Potential Revisit To $2.05 Accompanying his remarks was a chart illustrating the extent of this phenomenon, showing on-chain spending from “OG” Bitcoin holders—those who have held their assets for over seven years.  The chart prominently features two color-coded categories: orange for $100 million dumps and red for $500 million dumps, vividly demonstrating the scale of liquidations by these long-term investors.  Notably, the chart reveals that OG Bitcoin whales have been offloading their assets continuously since November 2024, which helps explain Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to other risk assets throughout 2025. Despite this selling pressure, the market has exhibited unusual resilience, absorbing these large sell-offs without experiencing the drastic price declines typically seen in previous cycles.  This behavior represents a new pattern for the market, as Wall Street analysts have noted that the net sales from long-term holders have surpassed 1 million Bitcoin since late June, according to research from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel. Potential Liquidations Driving Bitcoin To $70,000 A significant liquidation of leveraged crypto positions on October 10 further compounded the market’s struggles, with Bitcoin failing to regain critical support levels of $117,000 and then $112,000.  Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of Singapore-based 10X Research, expressed his concerns in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noting that the inability to reclaim these levels suggests that the market may indeed be in a bear cycle.  His firm, which had previously predicted Bitcoin would fall to $100,000, now believes the market could be “a few weeks away” from finding a buyable bottom. Related Reading: Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Sentenced To 5 Years In Prison For Money Laundering Thielen also warned of a potential correction that could see Bitcoin prices decline further, citing the recent strength of the US dollar as an additional challenge for the crypto markets.  He mentioned an “air pocket” below $93,000, indicating a lack of support that could lead to further liquidations, possibly driving prices down to the $70,000 range. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The recent Bitcoin price crash below $100,000 has sparked widespread concern across the crypto market, but major institutional players like JPMorgan remain unshaken. According to reports, JPMorgan analysts have issued a surprisingly bullish outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting a potential surge to $170,000 in the near future. The bullish prediction has caught the attention of the broader crypto market, especially as volatility and liquidations continue to test investor sentiment and push prices down.  JPMorgan Maintains Bullish Bitcoin Price Outlook Eric Balchunas, a Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, recently shared insights from JPMorgan’s analysts, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who presents a compelling bullish case for the Bitcoin price. In one of their research notes, the bank’s analysts argue that Bitcoin’s current market value is significantly undervalued compared to gold.  They suggest that once leverage conditions normalize, the leading cryptocurrency could climb toward $170,000. Notably, they expect BTC to reach this bullish target within the next 6-12 months, representing a 65.9% increase from its current price level of just over $102,400.   Related Reading: New XRP ETF Just Dropped, But Will Anything Be Different This Time? The analysts emphasized that the broader crypto market has already undergone a near 20% correction from previous highs, primarily driven by massive liquidations in perpetual futures contracts. The largest wave was observed on October 10, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of aggressive tariffs against China, which triggered record liquidations that wiped out billions of dollars in leveraged positions across exchanges—the largest such event in the history of crypto.  Leaving the crypto market with no room for a recovery, another devastating liquidation event occurred on November 3, deepening the correction after a $120 million exploit on Market Maker Balancer reignited fears over DeFi protocol security. However, despite this widespread volatility and market downturn, JPMorgan analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin, likely viewing these liquidation events as necessary purges that have flushed out excessive speculation.  The analysts believe that perpetual deleveraging has finally come to an end, opening a potential path for more stable institutional accumulation. They suggest that Bitcoin’s value could recover and strengthen considerably from now to October 2026, supporting the bullish projection of a possible rally to a new all-time high. Market Analysts Share Similar Optimistic Predictions  Crypto market analyst Sulianto Indria Putra’s latest technical analysis echoes bullish optimism for Bitcoin’s price outlook. He highlights that the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart shows the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continuing to act as a strong cyclical support level. Each time BTC has touched this EMA in past bull cycles, it has historically rebounded with strong upward momentum. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights Major Move For XRP And RLUSD, Will Price Follow? Based on the analyst’s chart, Bitcoin trades around $102,400, just above the 50-week EMA at approximately $100,900, where price action shows consolidation rather than breakdown. Putra argues that this positioning indicates that the market is forming a higher low within an ongoing bull trend. Despite widespread bearish sentiment and price declines, the analyst maintains that Bitcoin could still rally significantly to $150,000 between late 2025 and early 2026.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the years, a number of indicators have emerged that have helped to pinpoint the Bitcoin price top for each bull cycle. These have become quite popular due to their success rates during this time. As such, the Coinglass website collates all of these to form a progress chart that could tell when the Bitcoin price is nearing its peak. This progress chart is barely halfway gone, but the Bitcoin price is seeing major crashes, so what’s going on? Bull Market Peak Indicators Remain Untriggered A total of 30 Bitcoin bull market peak indicators are being tracked on the Coinglass website, and so far, not a single one has been triggered. This means that none of these 30 indicators point to the Bitcoin price already reaching its peak. This suggests that there is still more runway for the digital asset before it hits the cycle peak and begins the next decline into the bear market; thus, the tracker remains firmly in “Hold” territory. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash To $87,000 If This Happens For example, the Bitcoin Dominance indicator is very high, sitting at 92.76%, very close to being triggered, but remains untouched. This comes while the Bitcoin dominance over the rest of the altcoin market remains high above 60%, but still below the 65% score required for the indicator to be triggered.. Another major indicator is the Bitcoin long-term holder supply, which tracks the rate at which long-term holders are dumping BTC. This indicator is often triggered when long-term holder supply falls below 13.5 million BTC, but at the time of this report, it is still sitting above 15 million BTC. Short-term holder supply is another indicator that also remains relatively low at this point. For this indicator to be triggered, the short-term holder supply needs to rise above 30% of the supply. However, it is sitting at less than 25%, suggesting that Bitcoin long-term holders are still dominating the market. Sell-Offs Are Dominating Bitcoin While the Bitcoin peak indicators remain untriggered and point toward a time to hold, it has not stopped the massive sell-offs that have been rocking the cryptocurrency. Over the last few weeks, reports have emerged of early Bitcoin whales dumping billions of dollars of BTC on the market. Related Reading: Here’s Why Dogecoin And Shiba Inu Prices Are Crashing, Is A Recovery Possible? Bitcoinist reported that between October and November, two early Bitcoin whales had sold more than $1.7 billion worth of BTC in a matter of weeks. These sell-offs had added to the initial bearish pressure that pushed the Bitcoin price down toward $100,000. Then, earlier this week, reports emerged of another OG whale who dumped 10,000 BTC, worth over $1 billion on the market. Given these, it seems that Bitcoin is not waiting for the cycle peak indicators to trigger before rallying. The whales are already pushing what looks to be a premature bear market with the massive sell-offs. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The recent Bitcoin price crash is not just another dip in the market, according to analysts; it could be one of the most critical phases for its long-term bullish structure in this cycle. Crypto market expert Tara has emphasized that this ongoing retracement sets the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major bottom. Her analysis points to a potential Wave 5 correction that could drive the BTC price as low as $94,000 before the next major bullish trend begins.  Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery After Wave 5 Retracement In a technical analysis shared on X social media, Tara disclosed that Bitcoin’s latest price correction “is probably one of the most important retraces it will have in a long time.” She views the decline as an essential process that prepares the leading cryptocurrency for a strong rebound in the future. Based on her Elliott Wave analysis, there are only two waves left before the broader market shift begins.  Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 The analyst notes that the primary reason the Bitcoin price crash is important is that it allows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to recover, creating ideal conditions for a Bullish Divergence. Subsequently, this divergence could establish a solid bottom for BTC, which is a critical signal for the start of a renewed uptrend.  In her chart, Tara identifies a key Fibonacci Retracement zone between $103,400 and $104,900 as the resistance range for its current wave. The 0.382 Fib level is located near $103,478, where the Bitcoin price intersects with the Moving Average (MA), while the 0.5 Fib level aligns with $104,943. The analyst notes that this range could act as a crucial pivot zone before BTC resumes its correction in the final Wave 5 down to $94,000.  Additionally, the chart shows that Bitcoin is currently retracing from a previous low near the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension around $103,755.79. Trading volume has also declined by over 48% in the past 24 hours, while RSI remains weak at 33.96, signaling that the market is still oversold. Why The Path To $94,000 Matters For The Next Bull Cycle In responding to questions from crypto community members under her X post, Tara clarified that Bitcoin could first rise to $104,000, representing a 0.97% increase from current levels above $103,000, before crashing 9.6% to $94,000. She expects a price bottom to occur quickly and soon, whereas it may take longer for Bitcoin to build solid support before reversing into a new bullish phase.  Related Reading: Here’s What Happened The Last Time The Bitcoin Price Closed October In The Red Tara stated that the ongoing retracement could peak around the day of her analysis, but the bottom might take a few more days to form. Despite the anticipated “pain,” she reassured market watchers that the correction is necessary for Bitcoin’s next leg higher. She also emphasized that the market may not feel bullish until mid-December 2025. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how Bitcoin could be at risk of a further drawdown after trading at a significant discount to a key cost basis level. Bitcoin Could Retest Active Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin has dropped a notable distance below the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. To any investor, their break-even mark tends to be a level of particular importance, as retests of it can potentially flip their profit-loss situation. Due to this, Realized Price levels have often shown interactions with the asset’s price, as investors make moves to either exit with their money back or buy more to defend their cost basis. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 A group that’s considered particularly sensitive to short-term volatility is the STH cohort, made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The Realized Price of the STHs generally provides support during bullish trends, but with the recent market crash, Bitcoin has plummeted under it. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin at its post-crash levels is trading significantly below the STH Realized Price located at $112,500. This means that members of the cohort are now notably underwater. “Historically, discounts with such depth from this level have increased the likelihood of further downside toward lower structural supports,” explained Glassnode. One such support is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the “economically active” part of the BTC supply. A chunk of the cryptocurrency’s supply has been dormant for so long that it can safely be presumed lost. In other words, these tokens will never make their way back into circulation. Such coins have no effect on the market today, so the Active Realized Price excludes them from the data, labeling them “economically inactive.” The report noted that this level “has often served as a critical reference point during extended corrective phases in prior cycles.” At present, the indicator is sitting near $88,500. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Social Sentiment Collapses, But XRP Just Sees Disinterest The Bitcoin STH Realized Price isn’t the only level that the asset has lost recently. As on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out in an X post, the asset has also declined below the 365-day moving average (MA). CryptoQuant has described the line as “a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.” Considering that Bitcoin has lost the STH Realized Price, and now, this level as well, it remains to be seen whether the asset will end up retesting the Active Realized Price and other lower support levels. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,300, down over 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

In a bold escalation of the crypto-policy debate, Senator Cynthia Lummis has publicly asserted that Bitcoin is the only solution capable of addressing the mounting national debt burden facing the United States. Her comments come amid rising tensions over monetary policy, inflation, and the role of digital assets in reshaping finance. How Bitcoin Could Reshape Treasury Markets Senator Cynthia Lummis has once again made headlines with her support for Bitcoin, stating in a recent Bloomberg interview that BTC is the only solution to America’s mounting national debt. According to a crypto news source, CryptosRus, posted on X, that Lummis expressed her pro-Bitcoin stance, mentioning that BTC is an asset that will continue to grow over time and is the key to offsetting the burgeoning national debt.   Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Crosshairs: US Treasury Secretary Reveals What Senate Democrats Could Learn From BTC Lummis highlighted the concept of a strategic BTC reserve, asserting that it represents the sole viable strategy to offset the national debt. However, CryptosRus noted that her consistent advocacy makes her one of Washington’s most ardent supporters of BTC, pushing for its integration to play the core role of US fiscal strategy. Several companies are actively preparing for this move. An emerging euro-denominated Bitcoin treasury backed by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Treasury_BTC, has announced the appointment of Tycho Onnasch as its new head of BTC strategy. Onnasch is widely recognized within the BTC community for his foundational work on BTC scaling solutions, insightful market analysis, and deep conviction in BTC. Onnasch’s impressive background includes founding Zest Protocol, a leading BTC yield and landing platform, which is supported by BTC heavyweights Tim Draper and Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao. Academically, Tycho holds a degree from Oxford University, with a specialization in economic history. His achievements were further acknowledged with his inclusion in Forbes’ prestigious 30 under 30 Europe list. Onnasch’s role will be instrumental in driving the company’s BTC strategy and influencing its approach to market interpretation. A Healthier Foundation For Bitcoin Next Leg Higher CryptosRus has also reported that BTC has recently experienced its most significant open interest meltdown of its current cycle since the liquidation event that occurred on October 10. The data reveals substantial drops across major platforms, with Binance’s open interest decreasing by $4 billion, Bybit by over $3 billion, and Gate by more than $2 billion. Due to this liquidation event, traders have not rushed back in with leverage.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Lacks Conviction, Market Signals Another Pullback Risk Typically, leverage rebuilds quickly after a wipeout, but the slow recovery from this current scenario suggests that the market confidence is shaken. This sentiment explains the current slow and choppy price action, as the market operates with reduced leverage and fewer aggressive positions.  CryptosRus pointed out that when leverage undergoes such a significant reset, the market often leads to an increase in stability. It lowers the risk of another sudden cascade of liquidations and establishes a healthier foundation for the next price movements. The expert concluded that this is a BTC reset, not a breakdown. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The cryptocurrency market is currently facing significant bearish pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) struggling to reclaim previously crucial support levels.  Recent data from CoinGecko indicates that Bitcoin has retraced nearly 6% over the past week, a decline that has impacted other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL), all of which have experienced double-digit losses during the same period. Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Price Target This downturn marks a stark contrast to the bullish sentiment observed earlier in October, when Bitcoin surged to record its current record high slightly above the $126,000 mark due to a wave of margin buying.  However, the euphoria was short-lived, as approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market were abruptly liquidated just days later on October 10, contributing to the ongoing lack of confidence among investors. Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital recently revised its year-end Bitcoin price target down to $120,000, a significant cut from the previous estimate of $185,000, attributing this adjustment to the “significant leverage wipeout.”  Related Reading: Weakness In Major Cryptos: What Key Technical Metrics Indicate For Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Market analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out that Bitcoin’s drop below its 365-day moving average near $102,000 could signal a deeper retreat. This moving average has historically acted as a critical support level during this bull cycle, and its failure to hold could lead to a more substantial correction in Bitcoin’s price.  In their analysis, CryptoQuant experts elaborated on the conditions necessary for Bitcoin to reverse its current trajectory and potentially reach new all-time highs. They observed that Bitcoin led a global risk-off movement, testing the critical $100,000 support level.  This decline was influenced by a stronger dollar and ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, which have dampened broader risk appetites across various asset classes.  Notably, there have been four consecutive sessions of approximately $1.3 billion in net outflows from US spot BTC ETFs, reversing what had been one of the strongest tailwinds for the market in 2025. This diminished demand in the spot market has coincided with forced deleveraging, resulting in over $1 billion in long liquidations at recent lows, which briefly breached intraday support before dip buyers stepped in.  Stabilization Of ETF Flows Crucial The options market has further intensified volatility, as dealers remain net short gamma around the $100,000 strike, leading to increased hedging activity near this critical level.  The $100,000 mark now stands as a psychological barrier, and any stabilization in ETF flows could shift market sentiment, provided no new macroeconomic shocks occur. On the macroeconomic front, the analysts assert that the current environment remains supportive, albeit clouded by the ongoing government shutdown in Washington. However, policy clarity remains elusive.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Needs To Reclaim This Key Level To Prevent Drop To $1,700 The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point cut in October, which included some dissenting opinions, was accompanied by a cautious tone that pushed back against expectations for another cut in December.  Markets are currently pricing in a 60-65% chance of a follow-up move, but as the Fed’s blackout period continues, policymakers may become more comfortable with the idea of pausing, which would help maintain a firm dollar and tight credit conditions. For Bitcoin to break higher sustainably, CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that a reversal in exchange-traded fund outflows and renewed confidence in risk assets will likely be necessary.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A day after another billion-dollar liquidation cascade, veteran crypto analyst Trader Mayne says his core thesis is unchanged: the bull cycle’s top is “not in,” and the market is in the process of printing a weekly cycle low that could set up one more leg higher into year-end. “I’ve been banging on the drum about the high not being in,” he said in a November 5 video, adding that he remains “a BTC maxi from the spot perspective,” despite tactical longs and shorts that have been hit-and-miss during the recent volatility. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Mayne framed the selloff—coming less than a month after an almost $20 billion wipeout on October 10—as a feature, not a bug, of late-cycle price discovery. He argued that speculative leverage rapidly re-accumulated in altcoins and that majors still offer sufficient volatility with clearer structure. “People were right back on with the leverage… You really can’t teach an old dog new tricks,” he said, while emphasizing he now “primarily focus[es] on the majors” and holds a core spot stack he hasn’t sold. His near-term timing anchor is cycle theory. Drawing on the four-year template popularized by Bob Loukas, Mayne said he expects the broader crypto top to land between late 2025 and early 2026, but he stressed the immediate setup is about nailing a weekly low within a narrow window that “extends until about mid next week, November 10.” Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash To $87,000 If This Happens He wants to see “time and space away from this low” and a reclaim of the monthly open around $110,000–$112,000 to confirm that the decline has been exhausted. If that structure forms, he intends to treat $98,000 as the operative bull-market invalidation on a weekly-closing basis: “That will confirm to me that this is our bull market invalidation… at least in the worst case you have a cut point at like $100k Bitcoin.” Mayne supplemented the timing view with a cross-asset read that he says has been reliable in prior impulses: gold tends to rally first, with Bitcoin following “about 60 to 90 days later.” He cited chart work showing gold’s advance now roughly 80–90 days old, which, if the relationship holds, would “line up very well with Bitcoin being ready to make its next move.” He also expects the BTC-versus-gold cross to bounce, implying outperformance of Bitcoin over the precious metal through year-end: “I’m pretty confident this chart is due for a big bounce and we’re going to see gold underperform Bitcoin for the remainder of the year.” A more subjective—but, in his telling, telling—input is the absence of a true “blow-off” in Bitcoin versus the vertical arcs seen in AI-heavy equities and gold. With megacaps like Nvidia running hard since the spring and gold printing a sharp leg higher, he argued that “it just doesn’t sit right… that Bitcoin hasn’t had [its blow-off],” suggesting latent upside energy remains to be released if the weekly low locks in. On market microstructure and seasonality, Mayne pointed to early-month dynamics. In many green months, he said, the low forms in the first third of the month, analogous to how Monday’s range often frames the week for intraday traders. If November is destined to close higher, an early-month low coupled with a monthly-open reclaim would be consistent with his cycle read. “If we’re bullish for November… I want to be a bull above the monthly open,” he said. The scenario analysis was not one-sided. Mayne repeatedly acknowledged bear signals that have emerged on higher timeframes, including a weekly structure break, prior sweeps on the weekly and monthly, and building momentum divergences. Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Slashes Bitcoin EOY Price Target To $120,000 He warned of the possibility that the recent range resolves as distribution—“maybe the banks literally came in… and they’ve just been distributing on us here”—and laid out a lower-high path in which a rally fizzles beneath or just above the prior peak before breaking down. “There’s a world where we make an all-time high, but it’s just a weak one… you’re going to have the biggest bear div of all bear divs up here,” he said, cautioning that a marginal new high followed by a swift rejection would flip his posture. In the medium-term, he remains open to two competing macro arcs. In the base case, the classic four-year rhythm holds, the late-2025 window marks the cycle top, and 2026 skews bearish, though he expects drawdowns on Bitcoin to be “truncated” relative to prior 80% collapses given deeper institutional participation. In the alternative, the market “right-translates”—an atypical extension in which a new all-time high could print as late as Q1 2026—forcing a reassessment of the four-year template. Either way, he said, his plan is to sell strength on the next leg and reassess if the market presents higher-low continuation after a new high: “If the market appears to still be bullish, guess what? I can get back on the bull train.” Mayne also flagged the US dollar as a 2026 risk pivot, arguing the DXY is carving a “serious low” on multi-month and yearly structures that could precede a “deflationary rally.” While not a one-to-one driver, he said a strong dollar tends to pressure crypto and other risk assets. That macro overlay, combined with what he views as froth in AI-linked equities, underpins his caution beyond the next advance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $103,412. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment after briefly dipping below the $100,000 level on Tuesday, testing one of the most important psychological and structural supports of the cycle. The market remains tense as bulls attempt to defend this zone amid rising volatility and persistent selling pressure. Momentum has clearly slowed, and traders are now looking for signs of stabilization as the next directional move takes shape. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage According to top analyst Darkfost, a major shift is unfolding beneath the surface — Bitcoin’s open interest across major centralized exchanges continues to struggle to recover. Since the mass liquidation event on October 10, when over $10 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, the use of leverage has cooled significantly. This has resulted in the largest 30-day decline in open interest of the entire cycle, signaling a widespread de-risking among futures traders. While this sharp decline reflects shaken confidence, it may also serve a constructive purpose. The unwinding of excessive leverage often precedes healthier, more sustainable price action, helping to flush out speculation and rebuild stronger market foundations. Leverage Flush Deepens as Exchanges See Billions in Open Interest Wiped Out Darkfost highlights that Binance has been at the center of this leverage unwind, recording a massive $4 billion decline in Bitcoin open interest over the past month. Other major platforms have faced similar drawdowns, with Bybit losing over $3 billion and Gate.io more than $2 billion. This widespread contraction underscores how aggressively leverage has been removed from the market following October’s liquidation shock. Back on October 10, global open interest dropped by more than $10 billion within hours, one of the most severe leverage resets of the cycle. Historically, after such dramatic events, traders rebuild positions quickly as volatility cools. However, this time the rebound has been notably absent — open interest remains depressed, suggesting that market confidence is still fragile. The ongoing correction continues to discourage over-leveraged activity, forcing traders to adopt more conservative positioning. While this has amplified short-term downside pressure, Darkfost notes that these deleveraging phases are ultimately healthy. They wash out excessive speculation, allowing stronger hands to reaccumulate and laying the groundwork for the next sustained rally. In the medium term, this compression of leverage tends to create a more stable, organic market structure — one driven by spot demand rather than derivatives-driven momentum. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Flips Bullish: Now Long $109M In Ethereum While Holding Massive Meme Shorts Bitcoin Retests Key Support After Heavy Selling Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off that briefly pushed prices below the critical $100,000 level earlier this week. As of now, BTC trades around $103,000, attempting to recover but facing persistent resistance from the short-term moving averages. The chart shows that Bitcoin remains well below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages — both now acting as dynamic resistance zones around $110,000. The 200-day MA (red) near $102,000 currently serves as the key support level, and a sustained close below it could open the door to deeper downside, potentially toward $95,000. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M The recent bounce reflects short-covering and some dip-buying activity, but momentum remains weak. The market structure suggests a shift from bullish to corrective, as lower highs continue to form. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $110,000–$112,000 region — where heavy liquidity and previous breakdown levels align. Focus remains on whether buyers can hold the $100K–$103K zone. Losing this range would likely trigger another wave of liquidations, while a successful defense could provide the base for a mid-term recovery rally. The market remains fragile, with sentiment still leaning cautious. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around a precarious stage below the $100,000 psychological level as supply in profit just crashed to a new 2025 low. Amid this decline, Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, and CryptoVizArt highlight a complex interplay of structural weakness, cautious investor behavior, and decreased institutional demand. Bitcoin also remains oversold; however, it has yet to enter full capitulation. This suggests that price is fragile but not broken, balancing between recovery and the risk of a deeper decline.  Bitcoin Supply In Profit Crash Signals Weak Demand And Price Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen sharply, hitting its lowest level of 2025 and reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum. Glassnode analysts note that this decline indicates fading demand and persistent sell pressure as the BTC price consolidates near $100,000, after falling 21% from its all-time high above $126,000.  Related Reading: Pundit Highlights Major Move For XRP And RLUSD, Will Price Follow? According to the report, roughly 71% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, near the lower edge of the typical 70% – 90% range seen in mid-cycle slowdowns. This drop marks the lowest probability level of the year, suggesting that BTC’s price stability and recovery may depend on whether fresh demand can return to the market in the coming weeks.  The analysis also disclosed that Bitcoin has broken below the Short-Term Holder’s cost basis of roughly $112,500, and is now struggling to recover, confirming that its earlier bullish phase has ended. They say that the market has been unable to regain a solid footing since the October 10 flash crash and reset, with prices hovering just above the Active Investor’s Realized Price at $88,500.  Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are contributing to the bearish pressure. Since July, Bitcoin’s total supply has decreased from 14.7 million BTC to 14.4 million BTC, representing a net reduction of approximately 300,000 coins. Glassnode analysts estimate that around 2.4 million BTC have been spent during this period, which is roughly 12% of its circulating supply.  Unlike earlier in the market cycle, these long-term holders are now selling into weakness rather than strength, signaling fatigue and reduced sentiment, likely due to the consistent market declines. While the Relative Unrealized Loss remains moderate at 3.1%, Glassnode analysts highlight that the combination of declining profitability and steady long-term distribution leaves the Bitcoin price in a vulnerable position near $100,000.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals What Ripple’s Latest Launch In The US Means For The XRP Price ETF Outflows And Unsteady Derivatives Deepen Market Caution In addition to the decline in Bitcoin’s supply in profit, off-chain indicators also point to caution. Glassnode analysts note that US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows between $150 million and $700 million per day over the past two weeks, reversing the strong inflow streak from September and early October. This slowdown reflects a significant decline in institutional appetite, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin exposure as the price declines.  Bitcoin’s Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has also turned negative on Binance and major exchanges. In derivatives, analysts noted that the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has declined from $338 million in April to $118 million per month, indicating that traders are pulling back on risk and avoiding aggressive long positions.   For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, oversold but structurally intact. Glassnode experts have stated that the next key test lies at $112,000 and $113,000, where a sustained recovery would signal renewed demand, while further weakness could deepen the correction.   Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2025 year-end Bitcoin target to $120,000 from $185,000 in a new research alert circulated on November 5 and shared via screenshots on X by Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research. In the note titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Thorn situates the downgrade squarely in the context of a “major, multi-week selloff,” writing that “Bitcoin is trading below $100k for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse.” Thorn stresses that the shift is cyclical rather than existential, stating plainly: “While bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, cyclical dynamics have evolved.” The firm frames the current backdrop as a decisive turn in market microstructure: “Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $99,000: Expert Breaks Down Why That regime change helps explain both the tempered year-end target and the altered cadence of price discovery that Galaxy now expects. As Thorn puts it, “If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.” Short-term optimism is not abandoned: “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.” Reasons For The Bitcoin Downgrade The downgrade aggregates several identifiable drags, beginning with distribution patterns across the holder base and the market’s capacity to absorb them. Galaxy writes: “Significant coin transfers from old holders to ETFs and new institutional buyers signal maturity, not weakness, but have presented headwinds.” This redistribution—whales handing supply to passive and institutional channels—may strengthen long-term ownership but has, in Galaxy’s telling, blunted near-term momentum. Positioning and leverage are the second leg of the argument. Thorn flags the “significant leverage wipeout from Oct. 10” and adds that it “continues to dent market liquidity and confidence.” The October flush sits at the center of Galaxy’s cyclical reassessment: forced de-risking weakened order-book depth just as large-holder distribution accelerated, leaving price vulnerable into the latest drawdown. A third component is the rotation of capital and narrative attention into other trades. Galaxy is explicit that “Bitcoin started the year as the hottest investment narrative, but AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the Magnificent 7 have absorbed capital and attention that might otherwise flow into BTC.” That diversion extends into crypto-adjacent plumbing as well: “Rapid stablecoin growth has redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payments infrastructure.” The net effect, according to the note, has been a drag on incremental demand for direct BTC exposure and a tougher funding environment for pure-play Bitcoin vehicles. Retail participation, which defined prior peaks, is notably absent at sustained scale, and when it surfaces it tends to be flighty. Thorn writes: “Retail never fully returned at scale post-2021; when it did, the memecoin mania fostered short-termism that is not conducive to understanding and adopting bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.” Without sustained retail sponsorship, Galaxy expects ETF and institutional flows to “define BTCUSD behavior,” adding that “Passive Flows Dominate… lowering volatility and moderating cycles.” This, again, is part of the “maturity era” thesis rather than a repudiation of Bitcoin’s core investment case. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage Policy timing features as a missing catalyst rather than a negative shock. The note observes that “Despite positive rhetoric, no government bitcoin purchases have been announced. In general, the US government has been very quiet on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).” Galaxy does not ascribe immediate downside to the absence, but it removes a bullish tail event that some investors had hoped would materialize this year. Corporate treasuries and listed “Bitcoin-as-reserve” plays also receive a recalibration. Galaxy argues that the next iteration will demand business fundamentals rather than balance-sheet optics alone: “BTCTC Phase 2: The next wave of bitcoin treasury companies will mostly need revenue generation and operating businesses beyond reserve accumulation to differentiate themselves and thrive.” The firm also points to “poor performance of BTC treasury companies” as part of the year’s defining headwinds. Taken together, the factors map to a post-$100k market defined less by reflexive retail surges and more by methodical institutional accumulation. Galaxy calls it the “Post-$100k Regime,” in which “Bitcoin’s ascendance above six figures earlier this year marked the transition from early-era speculation to mature, institutionalized markets.” The conclusion threads the needle between structural conviction and cyclical prudence: “As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.” At press time, BTC traded at $103,093. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The current Bitcoin price crash is being driven by major sell-offs from large whales as they offload massive early BTC holdings. In addition to this, though, there are also chart formations that suggest that the Bitcoin price crash is only in its beginning stages. This comes after the cryptocurrency closed the month of October in the red for the first time in seven years, setting a precedent for a likely bearish close to the year. Higher Low Trendline Needs To Hold The current Bitcoin price downtrend began after the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high back in August. The rejection at $126,000 created the cascade of bearish pressure that has now plagued the market, causing major losses to altcoins as a result. But even with the price already crashing by a significant margin since then, it is likely that the decline is not yet over. Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 Crypto analyst TradingShot highlights the current trend as being similar to what was seen back in January-February 2025, where a fractal formed after the Bitcoin price broke below its higher lows trendline. Presently, the Bitcoin price chart is following a higher low trendline formed after the infamous October 10 flash crash. As the analyst explains, this trendline needs to hold for a recovery to take place. In the event that the trendline does break, then the Bitcoin price could be in trouble, similar to what was seen at the start of the year. A rejection from this level would inevitably lead to a double-digit crash. If the crash sticks to the same fractal seen in January-February, then the analyst predicts that a 32% decline could be in the works. This would put it on the 2.0 Fibonacci Extension level, and such a crash could mean a decline to as low as $87,000 before support is established again. What A Bearish October Means For The Bitcoin Price Interestingly, historical performance also supports the crypto analyst’s theory that a double-digit crash could be in the works for the Bitcoin price. This has to do with the performance in October and what the trend says could happen in the month of November as a result. Related Reading: Dogecoin Volume Spike To $2 Billion Might Be Bearish, Here’s Why Whenever the Bitcoin price has closed October in the red, the subsequent month of November has always ended weakly as well. The last time that Bitcoin saw a red October close was back in 2018, and what followed was a 36.4% crash in November. Given this, it is likely that the Bitcoin price does follow this trend, especially with major sell-offs from BTC whales. Naturally, a double-digit crash would mean that the Bitcoin price will crash below $100,000 for the first time in four months. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Despite a slight recovery in cryptocurrency prices on Wednesday, experts remain divided on the future direction of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). The market is at a crossroads, with some analysts anticipating a deeper correction, while others see the potential for a renewed recovery. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Hits 52-Week Low  According to a report from Barron’s, all three cryptocurrencies have attracted attention from major exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and President Trump’s administration, spurring hopes that increased institutional adoption could help stabilize volatility.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000 The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently trading more than 20% below its recent 52-week high, which was reached less than a month ago. This peak coincided with the formation of a bearish evening star pattern, and the ETF experienced a notable decline of 3% on October 7.  The drop below the $70 mark has added to the bearish sentiment, with the ETF declining in three of the last four weeks, closing within the lower half of its trading range.  This week alone has seen an 8% drop, and the ETF recently undercut its 200-day simple moving average, marking a steep 5.5% decline—the largest single-day drop since April 7.  For investors to regain confidence, analysts assert that it is crucial for the ETF to hold near current levels and reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of bullish momentum. Historically, recoveries have taken about six sessions, as seen back in April. Ethereum ETF Faces 17% Weekly Decline Ethereum, represented through the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF, has experienced a more pronounced decline, now down 34% from its annual peak and showing a negative year-to-date performance of 5%. This week alone, the ETF has dropped 17%, roughly double the decline seen in the Bitcoin Trust ETF.  However, the sharp pullback follows a significant increase of over 220% from early April to late August, making the current retreat appear both prudent and necessary.  Notably, the fund has not yet pierced its 200-day simple moving average, having touched it recently while retesting a breakout above a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.  The behavior of the ETF around this critical moving average in the coming week will be crucial; if stability can be achieved, it may present an attractive buying opportunity. After facing resistance at the $40 level on August 22, recent price action could be forming a double-bottom base, provided that the recent lows hold. Heightened Concerns For Solana Solana’s performance has been the most concerning, with its ETF plummeting 41% from its most recent 52-week high set in September. This heightened volatility may reflect the asset’s relative newness, as it began trading only in April.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Needs To Reclaim This Key Level To Prevent Drop To $1,700 The Solana ETF peaked on September 18 and has since formed a bearish island reversal pattern. Over the past seven weeks, it has fallen in five of those, with three weeks recording double-digit declines.  This week alone, the ETF has dropped another 19% through just two trading sessions. On the daily chart, a break below the bearish head-and-shoulders pivot at $19 raises concerns of a potential measured move down to $12. Ultimately, the report suggests that a potential recovery for the trio would imply further inflows into these exchange-traded funds. This would also indicate a new wave of bullish sentiment returning to the market.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,190, marking a 3% surge over the past 24 hours. During the same time frame, ETH and SOL also recorded gains of 5% and 4%, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has plummeted on social media, but XRP and other altcoins are just observing apathy. Social Media Traders Have Turned Bearish On Bitcoin & Ethereum In a new insight post, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how sentiment around cryptocurrencies has changed on social media following the latest market crash. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us how bullish sentiment compares against the bearish one on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Altcoin Winter Here? Ethereum, Solana Activity Plunges The metric works by going through social media posts/messages/threads to separate them into positive and negative using a machine-learning model. Once the posts have been divided, it counts up the number in each category and takes the ratio between them. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the last few months: As shown in the graph above, Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment has recently plunged, suggesting bearish sentiment has risen on social media platforms. The current value of the indicator is the third lowest for the past six months. Interestingly, the two instances with lower levels coincided with local bottoms for the cryptocurrency. This pattern of the asset going against the crowd opinion has actually been witnessed regularly throughout its history. Considering this, the shift to a negative sentiment on social media may turn out to be a bullish signal for the BTC price. Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency that’s witnessing a surge in bearish sentiment right now. As Santiment has pointed out, Ethereum has also seen a similar trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment. In fact, the negative comments have been even more intense for Ethereum, as the current value is the second lowest for the last six months. “Only the flash crash back on October 10th, when Trump temporarily threatened 100% tariffs on China, saw a higher level of bearish vs. bullish comments,” noted the analytics firm. Interestingly, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen this development, most other assets in the sector are showing a different trend. Below is a chart that shows how the Positive/Negative Sentiment currently looks for XRP, the coin ranked fourth by market cap. From the graph, it’s apparent that the indicator is sitting at a neutral level for XRP, implying social media users aren’t leaning one way or the other, despite the volatility. Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend “Unlike the top two marketcaps in crypto, XRP is showing what most other altcoins are showing… a surprising level of disinterest,” said Santiment. “It’s clear that most of retail has shifted their focus to just talking about BTC (and ETH, to a slightly lesser extent).” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,600, down more than 9% over the last week. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has officially lost its footing below the critical $100,000 level, rattling markets and fueling a wave of fear-driven selling. The move comes after a sharp surge in bearish sentiment, with CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin’s latest decline is largely psychological rather than fundamentally driven. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Scores Nearly $100M On ASTER And Altcoin Shorts As Market Sells Off Over the past several days, the market has shifted from confidence to panic at remarkable speed. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 21 — deep in fear territory — just days after BTC briefly tapped $107K. Bullish narratives calling for a $150K–$200K breakout have vanished from social platforms, replaced by anxiety, disbelief, and calls for deeper downside. Google search trends for Bitcoin interest cooled significantly after October highs, mirroring weakening retail enthusiasm. Meanwhile, altcoin sentiment collapsed to extreme lows, hitting -81 as traders capitulated across the board. This emotional swing is not unusual for crypto. With a relatively small market structure and large speculative participation, crypto assets remain highly sensitive to sentiment shocks. In many cases, price movements are influenced more by crowd psychology than by on-chain fundamentals. While the sell-off has been intense, analysts note that network data remains resilient — raising the question of whether panic, rather than macro reality, is driving this correction. On-Chain Data Shows Strength Beneath the Sell-Off Despite Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $100K, on-chain data paints a very different picture beneath the surface. According to a CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, there is no evidence of structural weakness or network deterioration — only a sentiment-driven correction. Key network metrics remain solid. Exchange withdrawals have surged, suggesting investors are moving BTC into self-custody rather than rushing to exit the market. Meanwhile, UTXOs in loss have risen to roughly 12%, signaling discomfort — but still far from levels associated with true capitulation phases in past cycles. This indicates that most market participants remain positioned for longer-term upside. At the protocol level, Bitcoin continues to show strength. Hashrate remains near all-time highs at approximately 1.1 ZH/s, reinforcing network security and miner confidence. Whale ratio has trended lower, pointing to reduced sell-side pressure from large holders. Liquidity dynamics also support a potential rebound. Over $10.7B in stablecoins has recently flowed into Binance, providing substantial dry powder for future accumulation. Realized cap data shows long-term holders trimming some profits, but importantly, incoming demand continues to absorb supply. Overall, the pullback appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. On-chain signals suggest the broader uptrend remains intact — making this volatility a test of conviction, not the start of a structural reversal. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M Key Support Under Pressure, Short-Term Trend Weakens Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure following its breakdown from the $110,000 range, slipping below the psychological $100,000 level before stabilizing near current support around $101,800. The 4-hour chart shows a clear transition into a lower-highs, lower-lows structure, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Moving averages reinforce this weakness: price is trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, signaling that bears remain in control. The sharp impulse move down was met with a spike in volume, suggesting panic-driven selling rather than a slow, distribution-based decline. Since then, volume has normalized as price attempts to consolidate above the $100,000 region. This zone now serves as a pivotal demand area — a break below it could expose deeper downside toward $95,000–$98,000, where stronger historical liquidity sits. Related Reading: Whale Piles Into ASTER Shorts After CZ’s Comment – $52.8M On the Line Despite the selloff, Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization. The wick below $100K indicates buyers stepped in aggressively at that level, preventing further liquidation cascades. However, bulls need to reclaim the $105,000–$107,000 band to neutralize short-term downside pressure and signal a potential recovery. For now, the trend remains fragile as market sentiment cools and traders reassess positioning. Price stability above $100K is critical — losing this range could trigger another wave of forced selling, while defending it may set the stage for a relief bounce. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin endured one of its sharpest selloffs of the year on Tuesday, knifing below the six-figure threshold and printing lows around the $99,000 area on major composites before rebounding. At press time, bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $101,700 after an intraday trough just above $99,000 on widely used benchmarks, marking a fall of roughly 6% day-over-day and the lowest print since June. The slide came as US equities limped into mid-week, with the Nasdaq up 20.9% year-to-date and the S&P 500 up 15.1% as of Tuesday’s close—gains that underscore how much bitcoin has lagged other risk assets during long stretches of 2025. That divergence, together with a growing body of ETF-flow data showing several straight sessions of net outflows from US spot bitcoin funds into early November, provided the macro backdrop for a fragile crypto tape. Independent tallies from Farside/SoSoValue and multiple outlets point to a roughly $1.3–$1.4 billion cumulative bleed over four trading days into November 3–4, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Why Is Bitcoin Price Down? Into that context, Joe Consorti—Head of Growth at Horizon (Theya, YC)—argues the selloff is less a loss of conviction than a structural handoff of supply. In a video analysis posted late November 4 US time, he framed the day’s move as “one of its roughest days of the year, down more than 6 percent, falling to $99,000 for the first time since June,” adding that while equities would call that “the start of a bear market… for Bitcoin, though, this is typical of a bull market drawdown.” He noted that “we’ve already weathered two separate 30 percent drawdowns during this bull run,” and characterized the present action as “a transfer of Bitcoin’s ownership base from the old guard to the new guard.” Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend Consorti anchored his thesis to a now-viral framework from macro investor Jordi Visser: bitcoin’s “silent IPO.” In Visser’s Substack essay—shared widely since the weekend—he posits that 2025’s rangebound price belies an orderly, IPO-like distribution as early-era holders access the deepest liquidity the asset has ever had through ETFs, institutional custodians and corporate balance sheets. “Early-stage investors… need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,” Visser wrote, arguing that methodical selling “results [in] a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.” Consorti adopted the frame bluntly: “This isn’t panic selling, it’s the natural evolution of an asset that’s reached maturity… a transfer of ownership from concentrated hands to distributed ones.” Evidence for that churn has been visible on-chain. Multiple instances of Satoshi-era wallets and miner addresses reanimating this quarter—some after 14 years—have been documented, including July’s duo of 10,000-BTC wallets and late-October movement from a 4,000-BTC miner address. While not dispositive that coins are being market-sold, the pattern is consistent with supply redistributing from early concentrates to broader, regulated channels. Technically, Consorti cast the drop as part of “digestion,” not exhaustion. “The RSI tells us Bitcoin is at its most oversold level since April, when the last leg of the bull run began. Every drawdown this cycle, 30%, 35%, and now 20%, has built support rather than destroyed it.” He added a key conditional: “If we spend too much time below $100,000, that could suggest the distribution isn’t done… perhaps we’re in for a bull-market reversal into a bear market.” Macro, however, is intruding. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on October 29 to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, but Chair Jerome Powell carefully pushed back on the idea of an automatic December cut, citing “strongly differing views” inside the FOMC and a “data fog” from the ongoing government shutdown. Markets promptly tempered their odds for further near-term easing. Consorti’s warning that bitcoin “is extremely correlated” to risk-asset drawdowns therefore looms large: if equities lurch meaningfully lower or funding stress reappears, crypto will feel it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run: Over Or Just Paused? CryptoQuant CEO Presents The Data If Visser’s “silent IPO” is right, ETFs are both symptom and salve. They have delivered the two-sided depth to absorb legacy supply but also introduced a new, faster-moving cohort whose redemptions can amplify downdrafts. That dynamic showed up again this week in the four-day string of net outflows concentrated in IBIT, even as longer-term assets under management remain enormous by historical standards. Consorti’s conclusion was starkly patient, not euphoric. “For every seller looking to liquidate their position, there’s a new participant stepping in for the long haul… It’s slow, it’s uneven, and it’s psychologically draining, but once it’s finished, it unlocks the next leg higher. Because the marginal seller is gone, and what’s left is a base of holders who don’t need to sell.” Whether Tuesday’s pierce of the six-figure floor proves the climactic flush—or merely another chapter in a months-long ownership transfer—will hinge on how quickly price reclaims and bases above $100,000, how ETF flows stabilize, and whether the Fed’s path from here restores risk appetite or starves it. For now, the most important story in bitcoin may be happening under the surface, not on the chart. At press time, BTC traded at $101,865. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin dominance sits at 60% and has been testing a vital long-run support line. According to market veteran Michaël van de Poppe, that support — the 20-month MA, near 59% — is the signal traders should watch. Related Reading: ‘Good News’ Finally Arrives For SHIB Army As Team Unveils New Update He warned that a confirmed break under that level could flip the market’s favor toward altcoins. Short moves can happen. Big shifts follow. Bitcoin Dominance At A Crossroads Based on reports and chart reads, The 20-month MA has been touched several times recently. In September, Bitcoin dominance briefly slipped below 59% before bouncing back, a move that shows the index is being pushed and probed. Van de Poppe drew a parallel to late 2019, when a long run above that moving average eventually gave way and set the stage for a long altcoin run. He told followers it could be “party time” if the line is broken with conviction. The #Bitcoin dominance is still trending upwards, but on edge to be breaking south. Why? It’s mimicking Q4 2019. I’d want to see a break beneath the 20-Monthly MA. If that happens, that’s party time. pic.twitter.com/m21WnBhKuj — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 4, 2025 Traders say this test matters because it is not just a small tug of war. It is a structural test that could change where money flows next. Momentum would likely shift. Market behavior could become more favorable to smaller coins. Historical Echoes From 2019 Back In September 2019, Bitcoin dominance peaked at 73% before the index began a steady slide. It tested the long moving average by February 2020, then in mid-2020 the structure changed and the drop continued until dominance hit 39% by December 2021. Reports point to that period as when many altcoins outperformed Bitcoin and saw large gains. Some analysts believe a repeat pattern is possible if the same technical threshold fails. Analyst Steve, from Crypto Crew University, flagged comparable chart shapes and resistance points that came before the major altcoin rallies of 2017 and 2021. He suggested the pattern might reappear, perhaps around 2026, meaning an altcoin upswing could arrive later rather than sooner. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be This Week’s Big Story As Saylor Teases Fresh Buy What Traders Are Watching Several clear markers are being followed. The 20-month MA at 59.29% is one. A sustained close below that level would be the clearest technical trigger. Volume trends and how quickly dominance moves after a break will be watched closely. In addition, analysts will watch whether major Bitcoin flows — such as ETF activity, exchange balances, or large holder moves — change, because those can speed up or slow down an altcoin response. Featured image from Stronger by Science, chart from TradingView

In the last few weeks, the Ethereum price has performed poorly, thanks to the bearish pressure triggered by the Bitcoin price decline. After losing support above $4,000, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is now showing more signs of a breakdown that could trigger a spiral. Multiple analysts have already shared where they see the Ethereum price going, and we take a look at two that look at both ends of the spectrum. A Recovery And Then A Crash Crypto analyst Melikatrader highlighted an important structure that the Ethereum price has formed recently, and that is a clear structure of recovery. This comes after the cryptocurrency completed a liquidity sweep around $3,700, which is referred to as a “Hunting.” Related Reading: Head And Shoulders Pattern Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 Now, with the liquidity sweep completed at this level, the analyst believes that this creates a potential base that could see the Ethereum price correct upwards. Amid this, the altcoin has also seen some consolidation between $3,700 and $3,800, making this range an important area of interest. If bulls are able to claim and hold this level, then it could put Ethereum on the path of another uptrend. It would put an end to the accumulation trend and kickstart another bullish run. Such a run would send the Ethereum price into the next supply zone, which lies at $4,080-$4,180, before seeing any major downward correction. Despite expecting the price to climb, the crypto analyst also highlights the fact that Ethereum is still flashing a bearish market structure. With the ascending trendline on the move, the price is expected to hit resistance around $4,100. If bears are able to successfully reject the price from this level, then the Ethereum price is expected to crash back below $4,000. Analyst Calls The Top For Ethereum Price While many in the space believe the current downtrend is only temporary, crypto analyst CRYPTO Damus believes that this could actually be the cycle top. In the post on X, he compares the current trend to that of the 2018 and 2021 cycle tops using the weekly chart. Related Reading: Here’s What Happens To The Dogecoin Price After The Consolidation Phase Ends Damus points out that there are similarities between the previous cycle tops and that the Ethereum price is currently following a similar playbook. This comes after consistent green candles, followed by red candles on the weekly chart, ending in a bear market. The analyst explains that it is possible that this time could be different, given the deviations in the market cycles so far. However, if it is the same trend from the last two bull cycles, that would mean that the bull run is over for Ethereum, and investors should brace for a crash. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price continues to face mounting pressure as it hovers near key support levels. With sellers pushing toward the $102,000 zone, BTC is now at a moment that may mark the final washout before a major rebound. The coming days could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin finds its footing or continues its decline. Bitcoin Faces Pressure Below $108,000 As Bears Regain Control Crypto analyst Crypto Candy shared insights into Bitcoin’s latest price action, noting that the flagship cryptocurrency tried to hold the $107,000–$108,000 support zone but ultimately failed to do so, closing below that level. This development signals a potential shift in market dynamics, as the $107,000–$108,000 zone may now act as a strong resistance area.  Related Reading: Head And Shoulders Pattern Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 Crypto Candy further explained that if the downward momentum continues, Bitcoin could retrace deeper toward the $99,000–$101,000 range, an area viewed as a critical support zone where fresh buying interest might emerge. A dip into this range could also help clear out weak positions and create healthier conditions for a long-term rebound. However, the analyst added that if Bitcoin manages to reclaim and hold above the $107,000–$108,000 zone, it would signal that bullish strength is returning to the market. Such a breakout could restore confidence among investors, paving the way for renewed upward momentum and possibly another push toward higher targets.  $102,000: The Ideal Flush Zone Before The Next Big Move In his latest BTC daily update, Super฿ro emphasized the critical role of the $102,000 support zone, describing it as an ideal area for the market to flush out remaining leveraged long positions. This kind of shakeout is often necessary to clear weak hands and set the stage for a more sustainable bullish continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A ‘Do-Or-Die’ Level As Cycle Faces First Real Test: Analyst Super฿ro further noted that once this cleanup phase concludes, Bitcoin could see a sharp rebound, primarily fueled by a short squeeze from traders caught on the wrong side of the market. As shorts begin to close their positions, buying pressure could intensify, creating a rapid upward move that reclaims lost levels.  That said, the crypto analyst has warned that a break below the $101,000 level would not be ideal, as it might signal that market weakness is deeper than anticipated. Still, he maintains confidence in the broader picture, highlighting that high-timeframe (HTF) indicators remain supportive of a potential rebound. Presently, the price of BTC is hovering around $104,000, indicating a more than 3% decline over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its trading volume has picked up pace, rising by over 79% in the same time frame. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin might be currently trending downwards, but a full fundamental breakdown shows it is ready to return to $120,000, and it is only a matter of time.  According to an extensive fundamental analysis shared by Mr. Wall Street on X, the recent months of price stagnation and sudden drops are part of a larger accumulation phase dominated by institutional players. The overall setup, he argued, points clearly to Bitcoin’s eventual climb back above $120,000. Institutional Accumulation And Controlled Bitcoin Price Range The analyst’s first point is how Bitcoin has been trading within a 120-day range, oscillating between $107,000 and $123,000 to form what is a controlled consolidation range by institutions intended to push out weak retail investors. Mr. Wall Street noted that Bitcoin’s structure remains fundamentally bullish despite the prolonged sideways movement.  Related Reading: Donald Trump Makes Nice With China, But Why Are The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Still Crashing? Each attempt to break out above $120,000 strongly or below the $107,000 support has failed, a sign that large institutions are actively controlling liquidity within this narrow band. Every crash within this period, including the one caused by the Binance sell-off and Trump’s tariff war with China, was met by strong institutional bids near the $107,000 zone, even when Bitcoin went on a flash crash to $101,000.  Therefore, there is no technical or structural weakness that invalidates the bullish thesis. The imbalance to the upside, he added, is sufficient to push Bitcoin back to trading in the $120,000 and $123,000 range, which is the Value Area High. Mr. Wall Street also tied Bitcoin’s coming surge to changes within the Federal Reserve’s policies. He pointed out that despite claiming to end quantitative tightening, the Fed has quietly injected billions into the banking system through repo operations and mortgage-backed securities purchases. He highlighted a single Friday where $50.35 billion entered the system. According to him, this liquidity will ultimately find its way into risk assets, including Bitcoin, in a pattern similar to the 2019 monetary response that preceded crypto’s 2020 and 2021 bull run. Although he warned that a fabricated crash could precede the next liquidity wave, this will only strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term position for another move to $120,000 and possibly higher. Gold And Bitcoin In The Battle For The Real Store Of Value Mr. Wall Street also called attention to the psychological side of the current cycle, which has been highlighted by some investors gravitating towards gold. He argued that retail investors are being pushed to gold through manipulated narratives of stagflation and economic fear, while institutions quietly buy Bitcoin. “What’s ironic is that the same logic that drives people to buy gold should be making them buy Bitcoin instead,” he said.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals What Traders Are Missing After The Bitcoin Price Spike To $116,000 The ongoing gold hype is to distract the public while institutions accumulate Bitcoin at discount levels. Once retail participants exit the crypto market entirely, then there is going to be a move upward that redefines Bitcoin’s price level.  As he concluded, the boring sideways phase is nearing its end, and the next aggressive move, one that could carry Bitcoin back above $120,000, is only a matter of time. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,200. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

CryptoQuant’s research head has pointed out how demand to absorb Bitcoin at higher prices has been low recently, potentially explaining the asset’s decline. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Metric Has Turned Red Recently In a new post on X, Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has looked at recent BTC market dynamics from a different angle. “Instead of looking at Bitcoin long-term holder distribution/spending, I like to look at the other side of the trade,” noted Moreno. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Maps Out Dream Ethereum Scenario To $8,000 Long-term holders here refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for a period longer than 155 days. This cohort is considered to include the high-conviction “HODLers” of the market, so distribution from them is often something on-chain analysts watch out for. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in a separate X post, Bitcoin long-term holders have participated in a significant amount of selling during the past month. This isn’t the signal Moreno focuses on, however. Instead, the CryptoQuant head checks for whether there is enough demand coming in to absorb the supply that the long-term holders are selling at higher prices. An indicator that can be useful for tracking this is the Apparent Demand, which compares the difference between BTC’s production and changes in its long-term inventory. “Production” is the amount that miners are issuing on the network every day, while the “inventory” is the supply that has been inactive for over a year. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Apparent Demand has been red on the 30-day during the last few weeks, implying a negative short-term demand for the cryptocurrency. “Is there enough demand to absorb the supply at higher prices?” asked the analyst. “Since a few weeks ago the answer is no, and that is why we see prices declining.” The story is a bit different when it comes to the 1-year Apparent Demand, which has actually seen some growth recently, but the pace of its rise has been slow, and its value is still below the 90-day simple moving average (SMA). Related Reading: Bitcoin At Key Retest: Bounce Or $98,000 Next? The last time Bitcoin saw an extended phase of negative 30-day Apparent Demand was during the bearish phase in the first half of the year. It now remains to be seen whether something similar will follow this time as well, or if demand will bounce back. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,900, down 9% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

In the dynamic and often opaque world of Bitcoin trading, institutional traders are operating with a fundamentally different playbook. These players are actively hunting for low-volume areas and under-traded levels, seeing them as strategic advantages for maximizing profit. Why Institutions Avoid The Crowd And Target The Gaps Bitcoin’s institutional traders and big players are actively hunting low-volume areas. These zones are thinly traded areas, which shows that there are fewer resting orders, making it easier to fill massive positions with less slippage. In an X post, a crypto analyst known as Killa has stated that throughout this entire rally, players have hunted Low Volume Nodes (LVNs), or in simpler terms, the volume areas are lows every single time. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Down Again — Bearish Momentum Intensifies Across Crypto Market The reason for this accumulation is that if the BTC price is stalling, volume is increasing, and BTC is unable to follow through with bullish momentum, it shows that 75% of the time, the market is preparing to retrace to lower areas of demand. This is simple basic supply and demand dynamics playing out. However, there has been a major increase in volume around these highs, coupled with the multiple sweeps of liquidity above them. Despite what might seem like bullish tariff catalysts, the market has failed to push higher. If this combination happens, it could be a sign of distribution rather than re-accumulation of the trend. Furthermore, if BTC can’t decisively reclaim the $114,000 monthly open, then the next logical target points downwards to the Volume Area Low (VAL) below $100,000. Should BTC push below $100,000 and manage to reclaim the VAL, then this will be a deviation into expansion, which is a reclaim of the range. On the other hand, if BTC is unable to reclaim the VAL after testing below $100,000, it would point to a bear market towards $50,000 to $60,000 range. October Leverage Bloodbath Is Still Echoing A popular crypto news source, CryptosRus, has mentioned that Bloomberg has dropped a report that the October liquidation shocks are still haunting crypto. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is back near $107,000, but the reason is not new Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) or macro pressure, but because traders are still shaken from the October wipeout. Related Reading: Are Bitcoin Investors Back In Accumulation Mode? On-Chain Data Says ‘Possibly’ The liquidation flushed billions in leverage, which is the biggest clean-out this market has seen in years. This drained confidence and completely sidelined buyers who still haven’t stepped back into the arena with conviction. Bloomberg says that the October shock absolutely repelled new demand, even as global risk assets continue to rally. Presently, the fundamentals for BTC are actually fine, but the sentiment is shell-shocked. According to CryptorRus, this is not a weakness, but it’s a recovery mode. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com